After winning the 2023 World Series, the first in franchise history, the Rangers have a big decision to make. They can either rest on their laurels, having accomplished their ultimate goal well ahead of schedule, or they can double down, reconfirming their commitment to winning. There is no denying their aggressive approach over the last two years paid dividends, but will they take that as motivation to remain aggressive or as impetus to let their foot off the gas?
The Rangers have been relatively quiet this offseason, having made just two notable acquisitions: starting pitcher Tyler Mahle and reliever Kirby Yates. Mahle, 29, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won’t return to the mound until midsummer at the earliest. Yates, 37 in March, overcame elbow problems of his own to pitch a full season in 2023, but at this point in his career, he looks more like a middle reliever than the All-Star he once was.
Meanwhile, several key contributors and high-paid veterans came off the books at the end of the 2023 season, including Jordan Montgomery, Mitch Garver, Martín Pérez, Jake Odorizzi, Aroldis Chapman, and Will Smith. In other words, this team has holes to fill and, at least in theory, should have money to spend.
However, after allocating significant resources to sign players like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi over the past two years, not to mention adding Max Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, the Rangers’ estimated 2024 payroll already sits dangerously close to the first luxury tax threshold. According to Roster Resource, the team has just over $4MM left to spend before they’d have to pay the tax.
The Rangers paid the competitive balance tax for the first time this past season. The total bill came in around $1.8MM, a drop in the bucket compared to their payroll and a small price to pay for a World Series title. Nonetheless, managing partner Ray C. Davis “isn’t keen to start the season above the tax threshold” in 2024, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Grant has suggested as much at multiple points throughout the offseason, but he reemphasized the idea earlier this week. Specifically, he notes the higher surcharge for clubs that pay the tax multiple years in a row; teams pay a 20% tax on all overages their first year above the threshold, 30% in their second straight season, and 50% in subsequent seasons after that.
Grant also acknowledges that the Rangers, like several other teams, are dealing with uncertainty surrounding local TV revenue after Diamond Sports Group filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. That said, he stops short of presuming the team will start spending again if DSG and the Rangers reach a new deal for broadcast rights in 2024.
Despite all these budgetary questions, general manager Chris Young went on the record in late November to say Texas would be “active in free agency,” even if he wasn’t going to spend to the same degree as he had the previous two winters (per Grant). However, it’s unclear if signing Mahle and Yates and calling it a day would count as an active offseason in Young’s book. For what it’s worth, the Rangers have been linked to several top free agents over the past two months. Before signing Mahle and Yates, the team was connected with pitchers like Montgomery, Yariel Rodriguez, and Jordan Hicks. More recently, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested the Rangers were still in on Clayton Kershaw, despite his recent shoulder surgery – even though Texas already has three starters (deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle) who are recovering from surgeries of their own.
Without shedding some financial commitments elsewhere on the roster, any new signing the Rangers make could push their luxury tax payroll over the first threshold for penalties. Thus, if Davis is serious about avoiding the tax in 2024, Texas could already be finished spending this offseason; needless to say, that would be an anticlimactic way to follow up a World Series-winning campaign. Then again, if Rosenthal is correct to think the Rangers are pursuing Kershaw, perhaps they aren’t ready to curb their aggression after all. In addition to a starting pitcher, this team could use another proven bullpen arm and a full-time designated hitter. Plenty of talented players are still available if Texas is willing to pay their price.
As things currently stand, the Rangers have a good chance to return to the playoffs and contend for the AL West crown in 2024. However, being the defending World Series champions doesn’t make them the division favorites, nor does it mean they can expect to walk back into the postseason next fall. If ownership wants to topple the Astros dynasty, they’d be wise to keep investing in their roster.
So, what do MLBTR readers have to say? Will the Rangers continue looking for upgrades, even if it means paying the luxury tax again next season? Have your say in the poll below!
(poll link for app users)
I have to think they add a couple of bullpen pieces. They start the year over the first tax threshold but leave the door open to trade back under it if the season goes astray.
Agreed. The rest of their roster seems pretty well set, but the bullpen was their one glaring weakness last season and they haven’t done a whole lot to address it yet. Adding at least one more high end reliever should be a priority for them.
Yes, but I would love to dump Semien and get a few BP guys with that cash or just sign Hader and trade for some good BP guys
I mean, all he did for 26 million was produce the 3rd best WAR by any player in the majors this season. Not really sure how much more you wanted from him.
If not for him, there’s no banner being put to the rafters next spring.
A better response is not possible.
“Dump” Semien?
I selected they would spend over the first LTT, despite the RSN mishap. I figured after losing Monty to FA they would either sign a SP or perhaps build up a really strong ‘pen, beginning with Hader.
‘Dump’ the guy with the highest WAR on the team. Makes complete sense.
Yeah I think you are the only guy who wants the Rangers to trade Semien… not sure what you against him, he’s really productive.
@degrom
Are you being serious? Semien is a stud and always healthy, he’s a WAR machine.
I am because he is old and can be dealt high. I shouldn’t have said “dump.” Regardless, I think defense is not nearly as valuable as baseball reference says, and I know Foscue could come up and replace his offense. See how Ivy League execs still refuse to generally pay much for defense (Simmons retired). Defensive losses can be made up by adressing the BP. I know it sounds irrational, but Semien is more of a luxury, and the bullpen is a dead spot. Yates and LeClerc are free agents after the season. Burke and Sborz are okay, and minor leaguers can fill up a few more spots. They can have 3 or 4 solid relievers for the price of Semien. At the moment, they certainly don’t have 8 relievers and probably have 3 open spots. Gray and Heaney are needed atm, Seager is a superstar, and deGrom/Scherzer are needed in the 2nd half. Semien is probably worth it now, and I do dislike defense-first contracts, but he is probably the one high paid guy they can deal if absolutely needed.
I would only trade Semien for somebody like Bobby Witt Jr but KC has no reason to make that deal unless giving up Walcott or another top prospect. I love me some Semien but if that could be accomplished I would be all for it. Move Seager to 3rd and Jung to 2nd. I would then consider trading Lowe for pitching (starter/pen) Then roll with Foscue or Langdord at 1st base
I would just say there is no way Seager would go to 3B. Jung is too good. Seager would go to 2B and that will probably be happening no matter what in the next year or two. Think about who will be the next Rangers SS after Seager.
I just can’t logically reason with this concept. Semien is a high priced, highly valued, and highly producing veteran at a keystone position who was an integral part of the 2023 championship. “Dumping” him would be a net negative for the team next year in every conceivable way. Statistically it’s hard to make any type of argument that he isn’t a good player. Now in 6 years if he’s hitting .240 with a .305 OBP and a negative defensively I’m open to debate. But right now he’s one of the two most important players on the team.
Can we add a “who cares?” option to the poll?
For those who don’t care, not voting (or commenting) would have a similar effect.
DoritosLocosTaco, big fan. Seems today you had a bit too much diablo sauce though.
And yet here you are commenting.
To that I say “you do.”
Rangers should go right after Hader, they need bullpen help badly
Thought would try to keep Montgomery but seem like he was just a rental. But with rotation have with Heaney, Dunning, Scherzer and Gray will they stay in front. Will they compete with Astros again. Astros season could be telling itself. But will Seager and Adolis stay hot for Rangers too. Not a Ranger fan but was shocked at how they came out last season.
They will be competing with the Mariners again.
How would I know how many people don’t care then?
Who cares?
Clearly I do, otherwise I would not have asked for the poll option.
I still believe they are treading water until there is some resolution with Ballys in January then they will reaign Montgomery and a couple bull pen options. It wouldn’t surprise me if they already have a deal in place with Montgomery.
No. They’re done.
I always assumed Montgomery would stay on with the Rangers after what happened in the World Series. They must really can’t afford him but the fact he is still unsigned could be a sign that they are waiting for the RSN issue to resolve.
The RSN issue is not likely to be resolved this year. Bankruptcy is continuing. Montgomery, nor any other FA, are not going to be waiting.
Agreed, nobody will be waiting that long. If the Rangers wanted Montgomery it would have already happened regardless. Maybe Montgomery spurned their money, or maybe Texas is taking a pass for other reasons. It just seemed like a perfect fit, without Monty I don’t know if they even make the playoffs last season.
People always like to say “well rentals at the deadline never move the needle; rentals never make a difference in the end; don’t give up top prospects at the deadline for a mere rental etc etc well the Rangers trade for Monty at the deadline shows people that if you’re smart & lucky it can work beautifully.
Is not a white and blank decision. Maybe the Rnagers and Montgomery agreed to allow more time to negotiate. The longer he’s unsigned the better for the Rangers.
Pretty sure they’re done spending this year. Happy New Year!
Can’t believe they let Garver go to another team for what he signed for. You aren’t going to get a better bat for that price, yet alone one who can fill in at C if need be.
I pretty much chalked Garver up the moment the season ended. Great guy, good hitter, but he is injured a ton and can’t catch anymore. Sam Huff will be the second catcher I hope and we can use the DH spot to rotate the outfielders to keep them fresh and get Langford ABs.
Garver was a luxury they could easily cut back on.
I personally think the best thing for the Rangers to do is play with house money, do not go over the luxury tax this season and then be more aggressive next year.
The question wasn’t if they were done spending but no major moves. I’m sure they will make some minor moves at least. Prob not a major ones as this market is crazy expensive.
With the DSG bankruptcy teams are being cautious. Padres and DBacks were dropped in middle of the season.
Tigers got the Miggy contract off the books, but seem unwilling to spend, because their contract with Bally is done at the end of next year.
They should bring Kershaw on and let him win a real World Series before it’s too late for the guy.
We have deGrom, Mahle, Scherzer all coming back mid season and that’s also when Kershaw is expected to be ready. We need healthy pitchers right now. Even so, I doubt he’d realistically leave LA.
Don’t get your hopes up on deGrom, that was a horrendous signing and it’s only going to get worse
It sure looks that way. But there have been worse contracts without a world championship.
We need a starter to START the season not in the middle of the season.
They didn’t assemble that team for a one and done. They’ll spend. They’d be dumb not to.
Trades work, too. They don’t have to deal away salary, necessarily. They can just go up to a rebuilding team and be like: take your pick of prospects other than Carter and Langford and give us your best 2 relievers plus some cash where needed
Perhaps this should have been question #4 in the poll. Maybe for a starter that hasn’t been able to stay healthy for whole seasons.
In Oct Texas issued a PR that they would be breaking the ballys contract after 2024. Reports out of their meetings with Ballys have not been positive and at this time they are not even meeting regarding a 2024 contract. The relationship with Bally’s is completely trashed. In fact, of all the teams involved it would be safe to assert Texas is in worst condition. They are operating under the assumption Ballys will not pay them anything until the bankruptcy court orders it. Which could be years out.
Does TX have the market base to succeed with their own network? If they do, I could easily see them pivoting toward that ownership goal.
If they have a contract with Bally, that’s not an option. They have to wait until the court rules no contract. Even while in Bankruptcy, Diamond Sports Group still has the broadcasting rights.
They are not waiting. They can absolutely break the contract. There will be consequences but they are far less than the rewards.
Google it. This was all a PR issued in Oct. It is very public information. FYI – contracts are broken all the time. It’s the basis for a large portion of our legal system.
I really didn’t like the Mahle signing. I like Mahle and for a different team I thought it would make a lot of sense. But the Rangers already had 2 starters in Scherzer and DeGrom coming back midseason. Having 3 is getting a bit ridiculous. How do you have enough pitching to get to June or July then have room for all 3 when they are healthy?
Having too much pitching after the ASB will not be a problem. In fact, it will be a blessing. Excess starting pitching is what won us the World Series. Until then, we have Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney, Dunning, and Bradford.
How do the Rangers get to July with a good record and then displace 3 starters? That isn’t going to work. They got 2 new starters in 2023 because they had to. You don’t go into the season planning for that because if you do the pitching in the first half won’t be good enough.
What do you mean by “displace?” They’re all under contract, and they’ll all remain on the roster. Nobody signed a contract to be SP2 or SP4. They all signed contracts to do whatever the manager tells them to do to help the Rangers win games.
Name 1 time in the history of baseball where a team was good enough in the first half of the season to be a contender and then mid season they replaced 3 starters. Just name 1 time that happened.
Every situation is unique. If you are saying this situation is unworkable, then we disagree.
The Rangers were in first place this year when they acquired Scherzer and Montgomery and displaced two starters. Three is only one more than two. This isn’t anything new.
The Rangers last year when they took Pérez and Heaney out of the rotation and Eovaldi was injured til mid Sept and replaced them with Scherzer, Monty and a mix of Dunning, Bradford and O. White
I can’t tell if this is a serious reply. To start the season as of right now their rotation is Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney, Dunning, Bradford. Is that “good enough” for the team to post a decent record in April, May, and June- With the offense the Rangers have, many people would say yes
They don’t have to “replace 3 starters” (when they’re healthy) they can trade one or send on to the bullpen (Mahle)
Expand your brain.
Having too much STARTING pitching may not be a problem the second half of the season. However, the 11 million wasted on Mahle could be spent on 2 good relievers, which would certainly win more games in 2025 than 10 or 15 Mahle starts. Needs help more than wants.
Yeah I don’t think Mahle was a bad deal but the day before the announcement that Scherzer will be out until midseason they signed another starter who will be out until midseason. I think Mahle made better sense for a different team.
I’m not sure how you’re going to get 2 good relievers for $5.5M though… You’re aware that AAV isn’t usually what someone is paid every single year of the contract, right?
And if you’re worried about games in 2025 when it’s not even 2024, you’re definitely looking at things wrong. And if you’re relying on relievers to WIN 10 to 15 games that Mahle starts, you’re hoping for a LOT of luck, because relievers generally aren’t there to WIN you the game, but to keep you from losing them, or to eat innings in games you’re already going to lose.
Yates got 4.5 MM. Two more of him would cost about that amount, especially given that guys will want to play for a WS champ. In 2023, Texas blew 33 saves out of 63 attempts. Even if 10 or 15 were in the same game, 2 good relievers would have stopped 5 or 10 of those games from turning into blown save losses. I’m not saying they will win 15 more with a BP (or anying about them winning 15 games Mahle starts – not sure where that came from), but 15 starts of Mahle may help win 2 or 3 more games vs at least 5 or 7 from 2 more Yates. You would have to watch Texas to know how many games the BP blew.
Ok, so Yates got $4.5M, and 2x that is $9M, which is notably a bit more than the $5.5M that Mahle is getting paid in 2024, so I’m not sure if you’re trying to gloss over being wrong, or if you just don’t care. $5.5M / 2 = $2.75M … You’re not getting guys of Yates caliber at $2.75M
If you want people to not interpret what you are saying into things you aren’t intending, you should work on developing better writing skills. Proofreading is a good skill to have. As such, I don’t know why you’re talking about 10 to 15 Mahle starts because in 2025, the year YOU specified, Mahle is expected to be healthy for the whole year.
The Rangers bullpen lost 34 games this year. The best bullpens in baseball this year, by ERA the Yankees, by saves the Reds, by WHIP the Dodgers, lost 30, 30, and 25 respectively. And you think adding two more guys of Yates’ caliber is going to have the Rangers bullpen costing them fewer games than some of the best bullpens in baseball??
The Mahle signing was BEFORE the Scherzer news. Not sure why you’re saying that.
Rangers will need a 5th starter for the first half as deGrom/Scherzer/Mahle all recover from injuries and Martin Perez leaving for Pittsburgh. Michael Lorenzon and Alex Wood make sense as either could move to the bullpen when the other starters come back. Rich Hill makes sense as he is only good for half a season anyway
Lorenzon and Wood might just prefer to remain Starters all year. I’m sure they will get offers to start from other teams. If they pitch well, will continue to start. That gets them paid more in the future.
I’m still in awe at this past season’s playoffs. MLB had some NFL vibes with both the championship series being amazing and the WS just straight boring. I was hoping for a rematch series as I enjoy watching those 2 teams very much, can’t believe both teams couldn’t get a W at home. Rangers after the break will be tough if those SPs get healthy
Shouldn’t this be are the REDS done spending? ; )
no… The Rangers were expected to spend in this offseason, not to the extent of the previous 2 offseasons, but still significantly. There was talks of Ohtani, resigning Montgomery, making a bullpen splash with Hader… none of which have happened and here we are entering 2024 with no feeling of the job being done. This post isn’t about whether the Rangers sign another player at all, but are they going to sign a notable contract.
I am sad as well, but do realize that trades for elite guys like Clase (available), Bednar, Williams, and others are still possible. They can still go for Bieber in a package deal or try to blow away MIL for Burnes. I just don’t trust CY to wake up and realize the bullpen in on fire and address it effectively.
Foscue, Harris and Rocker to the Tigers for Alex Lange, Wilmer Flores and a low minors wild card. Foscue and Harris are just rotting on the vine in Texas and Rocker is working back from injury. Lange gives you a fireballer for the late innings and Flores a guy ready to move up from AAA who can start/relieve, and was a top 100 prospect at the start of 2023.
Maybe, but they need Foley and Mize now and someone like Melton as a third piece for those three prospects.
I can’t see the Tigers going for that. Two proven major leaguers plus an up and comer like Melton for an injured A ball pitcher and two good but unproven minor league prospects.
Still, I’ve felt there is a fit between the Tigers and Rangers since last year so I could see them matching up.
Tigers really don’t need a 2B(Keith will be at 2B), or a LH OF. I don’t know if I would move Flores for Rocker straight up (don’t want Boras clients).
Foscue can play 3B too (the OBP and walks are intriguing) and I believe Harris used to be an IF (could be mixing him up though), and he stole something like 40 baes last year so potentially a better version of Vierling and/or Baddoo. Rocker has always intrigued me and I could easily see him as a power arm at the back end of a bullpen if he doesn’t remain a starter. All wishful thinking on my part unfortunately. Can’t wait to see Keith play this year!
No Foscue doesn’t play 3B, he doesn’t have the arm. He is pretty much a 2B, 1B guy. I am not sure why MLB.com has him listed as a 3B/2B. pretty much every scouting report has mentioned fringy arm strength.
Copy that. My bad for not digging deeper. Thanks for clarifying. Cheers dude
No Rocker! Take Owen White instead.
Owen White and Leiter are both interesting arms too.
Need to spend on a better DH and some bullpen help. Other than that, should be set for the season and see how things go until the trade deadline.
Boy it must be nice to have an owner that isn’t a cheap POS.
I think they’ll free up some money and spend in other ways.
Who do you see them trading to clear salary?
Have the Rangers considered replacing Mitch Garver at DH with Matt Carpenter in order to stay under payroll?
I think rotating four outfielders through the DH slot would be preferable to Carpenter. Langford is coming quickly.
Hold your horses bucco! Matt Carpenter is a Native Texan who will bring the veteran leadership the Rangers need to help corral the young kids coming up in the system and keep them from getting too cocky from this most recent series win. Carp will keep the boys grounded while taking over your DH slot. Carp is a native Texan who needs to play for his home state club, Mr Etex211.
Carp will most likely bat 6th in the Rangers lineup.
I really don’t understand the ignorant comments people make about how Texas only needs 1 reliable bullpen guy. Name 7 others if you can. All I see is Leclerc, Yates (both free agents after the season), Burke, 5.5 ERA Sborz, and a bunch of non roster invites/minor league prospects. It’s easily the worst position, far ahead of DH and SP.
If you’re looking at Sborz and you can’t say anything but his ERA, you’re letting everyone else here know that you don’t bother with evaluation. Yes, Sborz posted a 5.50 ERA for 2023. At the same time, he posted a 1.146 WHIP and a 3.75 FIP, which both suggest that he was MUCH better than a 5.50 ERA suggests.
Also, how are you ignoring his 0.75 ERA over 12 innings in 10 games in the postseason??
After some time, you give up on peripherals and start looking at results. See Michael Kirkman. If your ERA is 1 higher than your FIP, you have to start taking ERA seriously. The opposite is true for Zack Britton in his 2014-2020 peak. Sborz has stretches of dominance, which greatly inflate his numbers. Giving up 3 straight doubles and 2 sacrifice outs may not hurt your WHIP or FIP much, but inconsistent guys have higher than expected ERAs. The postseason was a small sample size that brings his 2023 ERA down to a high 4.62. His postseason FIP was 2.09. 2022 was objectively awful, with a 6.45 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 4.05 FIP. Bref’s simplistic regression model expects him to have a 4.83 ERA in 2024. I wouldn’t rely on that over Maton/Neris/Hader/Bednar/Clase/Williams, etc.
bullpens are finicky. Even pens that are good one year completely regress in the blink of an eye. I think the Rangers rightly see that they do have some guys like Hernandez and Yates Sborz, even Tinico who could break the right way this year if they figure it out. I absolutely hate investing huge resources, especially prospects, into a bullpen, too risky. Sometimes I’m interested if it’s Bednar or Harder or something.
Leclerc, Yates, Sborz, Hernandez and Burke give you a talented — albeit volatile — core. All of those guys have plus stuff and have had good stretches/seasons in the past.
Same with Castillo, who will very likely nail down a roster spot in the spring. That leaves you needing a long man and a mop-up guy.
It would be nice to add one more legit backend guy. But it’s not imperative. You could always wait and add at the deadline again if need be.
The more I look at this ranger rotation the worse it looks. Only 4 starters (one of which is injury prone) and nothing in the 5 or for depth and I mean nothing. The Rangers system for sp is anemic. Relying on DeGrom, Scherzer and Mahle to come back healthy is not a good plan. If anything, whatever they give you in 2024 should be a bonus. This team might go from winning a WS to being under 500.
Reinforcements coming midseason, Angels will be worse in 2024 and Oakland still horrendous. They should make the playoffs and/or win the division.
17HRs with a .330 OBP last season. Good defense. What am I missing with everyone being down on him here? His 2022 looks good too.. 2021’s OBP was a bit low but the power and defense were there.
Time to give Bauer a chance!
Either sign Snell or Montgomery or get Bauer.
Bauer and Hader would make a lot of sense.