Free agent right-hander Lucas Giolito is getting a lot of attention, with Jon Morosi of MLB.com reporting that the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Royals are interested in him. The interest from the Dodgers was already reported but the four other clubs are new mentions.
Giolito, 29, is one of the hardest free agents to value. From 2019 to 2021, he made 72 starts and tossed 427 2/3 innings with a 3.47 earned run average. He struck out 30.7% of batters faced in that time while walking just 8%. His 11.3 wins above replacement in that stretch, per FanGraphs, was seventh among all pitchers in the league.
Things took a bit of a downturn in 2022, at least in terms of results. His ERA jumped to 4.90 and his strikeouts dropped a bit, though his 25.4% rate was still above league average. His .340 batting average on balls in play that year stands out as a clear outlier, as he’s never had that figure finish higher than .274 in any other season. His 4.06 FIP and 3.79 SIERA both suggested he was actually more in line with his previous track record than the ERA would indicate.
He seemed to be back on track in the first half of 2023, making 21 starts for the White Sox with a 3.79 ERA. But things went downhill for him after he was traded to the Angels prior to the deadline. He took the ball six times for the Halos, posting an ERA of 6.89 in those. As that club fell out of contention, he was put on waivers and claimed by the Guardians. Six more starts with that club yielded an even worse ERA of 7.04. His walk rate jumped to 10.8% in the 12 starts after being traded and he also allowed 20 home runs in just 63 1/3 innings.
That poor stretch of play represents such a small sample in a career that now includes over 1,000 big leagues innings, but was unfortunately timed right before his first trip to free agency. MLBTR predicted he would get a two-year, $44MM with an opt-out that lets him potentially return to free agency with a stronger platform.
Each of the four clubs now connected to him are sensible fits since they each are known to need pitching. The Diamondbacks have Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in two rotation spots with Brandon Pfaadt likely to be somewhere behind them, but there’s not much certainty beyond that. General manager Mike Hazen has been open about the club’s desire to upgrade the rotation this offseason.
The Mets have added Luis Severino to a rotation that also features Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana, but there are question marks for the back end and even Severino is no guarantee after his poor 2023 campaign.
The Red Sox have plenty of options but none of them concrete. Chris Sale should be in one spot but he hasn’t reached 105 innings pitched in a season since 2019 due to various injuries. Brayan Bello had a decent 2023 season overall but faded later in the year with a 5.49 ERA in the second half. Each of Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford have oscillated between the rotation and bullpen without permanently cementing a spot. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said at the Winter Meetings that the club would be “aggressive” in pursuing upgrades.
The Royals have plenty of questions in their rotation. Cole Ragans had a strong finish after coming over in the Aroldis Chapman trade but Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles each had disappointing seasons. General manager J.J. Picollo said this week that the club has about $30MM to spend and adding a starter is one thing on their to-do list. Signing someone like Giolito would likely eat up a decent chunk of that budget and leave little for bullpen upgrades, but it’s at least feasible that they could dedicate more of their resources to the rotation.
Offer 3/50M and see if he bites. It could end up being worth the risk.
Mlb – You can have him, I want Lugo.
I don’t want either of them
I’m with you, mango. Both of them seem more bloom moves than being “aggressive”
Ty everytime I see a move like this I wanna type up bloom instead of breslow like for real … No excuse between the trade and free agents they could have had a nice rotation but apparently Boston doesn’t understand the definition of great rotation or at least enough too win .. logo had one decent year as a starter he was in relief before that … And I’m sorry but No ty on Lucas …
“I want Lugo”…I consider both pitchers useful pieces but I prefer a guy who’s always been a starter over a converted reliever. Plus, I do like acquiring some guys(Giolito) when their stock is down a bit to lower the asking price. Lugo is a “buy High” guy who could turn back into a pumpkin at any time, since there’s very little Starting pitcher track record. And MOST importantly Giolito has made at least 30 starts 4 times and a fifth year with 29 starts. I’m not confident Lugo will EVER make 30 starts, certainly not multiple times, although I concede you can always be wrong on players.
On a 1 year deal, I don’t love the move but I understand it. Not on a 3 year deal. Not under any circumstances after the season he just had
I can definitely see your point. His season was a bit rough. Personally I don’t like risk, but without it you’ll never sign anyone. I would ALWAYS prefer a 1 yr contract with team options but in this frenzy to acquire SP I don’t believe that will be possible. I think for a mid mkt team that doesn’t want to spend “Yamamoto” or “Snell” money it would be worth the risk. Keep in mind that if Giolito was a free agent 2-3 yrs ago, he’d probably be looking at a 120M+ contract. Just 1 man’s opinion.
Good for him. I’d literally rather not have anyone than sign Lucas Giolito
The guy has four good years in a row, has one bad year, so he obviously stinks and anyone that signs him is an idiot. A good pitching coach could fix the flaws he had this season. If so, he could become an ace pitcher again.
I don’t care, I’m sick of reclamation projects
That might be a reasonable offer if Brent Strom can work with him to get back to being a solid starter.
You used Kenta Maeda on the Mets instead of Kodai Senga. Dude.
Blub Blub blub 3 men in a tub…
Kept hearing about a winter meetings where things were going to get wild…anyone know when this will be?
Not this year
Seems like the whole market is waiting on the Ohtani decision.
It’s like Black Friday. Thing of the past. Everything is digital these days
I would not pay Giolito 20 per year
completely agree
I would for a single season. If you guarantee him that for multiple years then you have some serious stones.
I think a 3/60 could end up being a good value deal but it’d be awfully tough to do coming off that year.
I wouldn’t pay him $20 a year.
That’s fine & fair.
I would risk it on the upside if Ihad the payroll flexibility. It’s not a long term crippling deal and if you can get him back up to 2021 then you have yourself a #2.
Jake Bigger, snakes: of course you wouldn’t. But it’s not your money so don’t worry about it so much.
Only if he’s like dirt cheap
Royals makes sense. The problem with Giolito if you are a contending team is he might suck. And you don’t want to risk that. The Royals can sign him and if he bounces back can get something for him at the deadline.
Depends on the team. If money isn’t an issue then get him now. The Astros, for example, don’t have many top prospects left to deal away. If they wanted a Gio—best bet would be to sign now.
A team like the Orioles or Padres could wait and see about him if he went to KC. But does a losing team want to pay him $20MM a year? They typically don’t
Well the Astros only have so much money. Waiting until the deadline allows them to save the first 4 months of salary. And again if he sucks they don’t have to risk him sucking for their team.
Yup. Cost/benefit to either direction. You don’t know where he’s going to sign if you don’t sign though.
Royals just said they have about $30 million to spend.
That’d be most of it in one spot though. Can’t buy much with the remaining 10. Quite a few holes they need to plug.
You’re getting your Japanese pitchers mixed up.
Royals can’t compete if actual pennant contenders are involved.
Giggalito is worth Lance Lynn money.
Agreed. He’s been throwing batting practice lately and has the potential of being the next Corbin.
Whatever one thinks of his good seasons, understand it was an imbalanced schedule against weak ALC division opponents. That helps shape perception in a misleading way, and on the flip side acquiring an AL East so called mediocre starter could be of great value once they go to a softer division. What you saw once traded out West is probably a more accurate expectation for clubs to “fix”.
I don’t agree w that. He’s pitching against major leaguers regardless of division
“Each of the four clubs now connected to him are sensible fits as they each are known to need pitching.” Uh huh! Did that really need to be said? I was worried the Cubs would sign him to play 1B! Is there a single team saying they don’t need pitching? What team would not be a sensible fit for him? Inquiring minds want to know!
Could see Mets doing 2 yrs 35 with a option for a 3rd year.
Snakes
Giolito is fine but they need Yamamoto. Get both and things are starting to look up
I think, at this point, it’s unlikely that the Red Sox are going to sign YY. I just can’t see the Red Sox outbidding the likely top 4 spots Mets, Dodgers, Yankees and Giants. It’s unlikely that anyone is going to outbid Cohen if he really wants this guy. I think that Boston is realizing this and are setting there attentions elsewhere.
Bruin – Henry has been known to offer the top bid for premium free agents in the past. Dice & Price are just two examples.
Since the farm system has basically no pitching prospects, Sox will splurge on pitching. I can see Cohen splurging on Soto, Dodgers splurging on Ohtani, Giants splurging on Snell, Yankees splurging on Belli. I don’t see any team giving out more than one $250M+ contract this winter.
Don’t forget, Yama and Yoshida were teammates for six years. That’s a huge advantage for the Sox if the money is close.
Yeah it’s going to come down to market and not money. Boston has a great market and they are my east coast favorite to land him. I still think he lands on the west coast but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a Red Sock
Giolito is the perfect fit in Boston ! He’s going to get paid handsomely right into what would be Bostons budget and he’s got bounce back wrote all over him.
Big whiffa: I hope he signs with Boston or Arizona. He would be huge for the Dbacks, giving them three solid starters. Most teams have two good SP and maybe a third you watch through separated fingers Gio could put them over the top especially if they re-sign some of the players that got them to the WS.
Meh. Almost everything screams out “mediocre”. And mediocre has its uses, but not for $20M.
Joe – I’m on the same page. Shoot high and settle for low. It’s like dancing with the ugly girl because you are afraid the pretty one will say no. Make the pretty one dance with you Breslow!!!
I thought Bloom was gone?
Crazy how down everyone is on giolito! Dude has a legit track record and that record is about to get him paid !
Pitched well in front of the White Sox defense.
DonOsbourne: A defense that didn’t include a 2b the last three seasons.
Giolito makes sense on the Royals as a one year deal for both sides. If Giolito pitches well, the White Sox probably trade him to a contender and the Royals need more time to establish whether or not they need to rebuild again.
White sox?
martras: The Sox did trade him to a long-shot contender and, not surprisingly, got very little in return.
@avenger – Yeah, all the White Sox got was a consensus top 100 MLB talent ranked as high as the #48 prospect in MLB according to Fangraphs. Practically nothing at all.
Quero’s only age 20. His campaign in AA was not astonishing, but it was definitely impressive given his experience level. .255/.380/.351 OPS .731 wRC+ 105. Besides that, he’s expected to be solid behind the plate.
I consider Reynaldo Lopez basically being swapped even up to get Ky Bush.
Another crazy rumor for the Red Sox just like Lugo!!
SP1 and SP2 are vacant
SP3 is Sale
SP4 is Bello
SP5 is Houck/Crawford/Whitlock/Pivetta
What do we need? A SP1 or a SP2.
Are Lugo or Giolito a SP1 or SP2? NO. They are lower in the pecking order.
So this is like when Bloom got Schwarber when we needed a SP.
I don’t believe Breslow will mismatch his acquisitions to his needs.
His needs are simple: 2 SPS for top of the rotation, a 3B, a 2B, a Lefty Reliever/closer and a Catcher better than Wong.
Giolito and Lugo don’t match the need so they shouldn’t be considered any more than Gurriel who is also not needed.
The Red Sox are supposedly in on Yamamoto, though I think he’ll end up in SF or NY.
They’ve also been connected to Montgomery.
I have them signing Montgomery.
I would offer Giolito 2/26 w/ an opt out.
Severino kind of set the market for 1 yr contracts for bounce-back candidates.