The second ever MLB draft lottery was conducted at the Winter Meetings this afternoon. The Guardians were surprisingly awarded the first overall pick, followed by the Reds and Rockies. Cleveland entered the event with just a 2% chance of securing the highest selection.
Cincinnati also surprisingly drew near the top of the league. The Reds’ chances of landing the first pick were less than 1%. While they didn’t quite get to #1, they jump up to second despite having the 14th-worst record this year.
Here’s the first round order:
- Guardians
- Reds
- Rockies
- Athletics
- White Sox
- Royals
- Cardinals
- Angels
- Pirates
- Nationals
- Tigers
- Red Sox
- Giants
- Cubs
- Mariners
- Marlins
- Brewers
- Rays
- Mets
- Blue Jays
- Twins
- Orioles
- Dodgers
- Padres
- Yankees
- Braves
- Phillies
- Astros
- Diamondbacks
- Rangers
As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had identical chances of landing the top selection.
All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. That ruled out the Nationals this year, as they selected 2nd overall a season ago. (As an interesting aside, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America relays that a ball for Washington was actually chosen on the initial drawing for the first pick. As a result of the CBA provision capping them from picking higher than 10th, that result was voided. Cleveland’s winning ball was drawn on the second trial.)
This year, the A’s, Royals and Rockies had the best chance of securing the #1 overall selection. Each had an 18.3% probability for the pick. The White Sox (14.7%) and Cardinals (8.3%) had the fourth and fifth highest odds, respectively.
Also of note: none of the Mets, Yankees or Padres were drawn into the top six. Those teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier. As a result, their highest choices were dropped by 10 spots apiece. Had any of them received a lottery pick, their second-highest pick would have been moved back instead.
The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.
While the 2023 draft was extremely highly regarded at the top — particularly with the first five selections — the ’24 class isn’t as lauded. Much can change with the upcoming amateur baseball season in the spring, of course, but early indications are that having a top selection may not be quite as impactful as it would be in a typical season (and certainly not last summer). Baseball America recently updated its Top 100 draft prospects.
Big Red Machine 2.0 is coming
A’s fall all the way to fourth. Couldn’t happen to a nicer owner.
Lower draft slot = less draft pool cash = less out of pocket expense.
Fisher probably isn’t too sad.
If the Guardians had been the Indians, they would NOT have the #1 pick. It was part of Manfred’s secret deal with Paul Dolan in changing the team name.
“Would not have the #1 pick”…I know that makes me a conspiracy theorist, but I was thinking the exact same thing. They didn’t have to change their name but MLB clearly wanted it and this is the arrangement that was struck between Guardians & MLB.
In all honesty, what ARE they guarding in Cleveland?
A bridge.
Yes, I know! It is posed a humorous question…
Mediocrity
Since the start of 2013, Cleveland has the 4th best winning percentage in MLB. Many teams would like to be as mediocre as the Guardians have been.
Those numbers are all well and good John… But what do those numbers mean without the world series attached to it? Not much
i hope that draft pick doesn’t sign with them 🙂
Let’s hope it’s not Nick Senzel 2.0
senzel got forced into another position..was total BS..Looks like they are gonna do the same @%$# up experiment with India at 1B. You would rather have India than Votto at 1B? Kralls a clown! Trade India..sign votto as your DH/1B bench piece. Honestly get ohtani..Place would be a sellout every game. Stun the World!
My guess is they still trade India…Krall is just saying the right things. And yes, I’d rather have him at first than Votto. Votto doesn’t hit anymore and is a bit of a head case…his “leadership” is overblown.
Boo hoo, he had to play another position, that happens to more than half the league, he still couldn’t hit aside from being a nice platoon bat which is hard to count on because of small sample size. I think Votto is pretty much cooked as well.
Great job of putting a negative spin on a positive outcome.
Reds have had some nice draft luck this decade. Getting #2 doesn’t surprise me.
It’s not luck. Well pick 2 is luck but drafting well. That takes mad skilz son
TOTALLY mad skilz. There’s a reason that certain teams(Dodgers/ Braves come to mind)are always stocked with good young players, even though they rarely pick in the top 15.
LeBron taking his talent to the baseball diamond. Gotta suit up for the Spiders. Even though he’s a die hard Yankees fan.
Hes part owner of the red sox..wouldnt he suit up for them?
He’s also part owner of Liverpool in the English Premier Soccer League. Very diverse.
I don’t know but I do know he’s a Yankees fan. Or at the very least grew up one.
BOOM!
Who gets drafted #1? Any ideas.
Honey
davemlaw: This Reds team is different than The Big Red Machine. TBRM had power all over the place. Actually, they had EVERYTHING. This version seems to rely more on speed and defense. Losing Votto takes away some of their power. They don’t come close to TBRM’s pitching, but they’re working on improving that. All in all, this team is a contender in the NLC and PO.
I got first comment selection woot woot
Fumbled the bag.
Let’s go goose!
Lol As
Rigged in favor of Ohio
My pillow dude better investigate this.
Flop. Shoulda kept that one in the drafts
#TrumpTucker2024
Nationals were screwed by a BS rule.
The whole draft lottery is screwed up. First of all there shouldn’t be a lottery at all. In FB, a player could drop a pass or interception. In BB, when a player on a bad team drop the ball, it’s because they’re not very good. Also, there are only 16 games in an NFL season. You’d only need to throw a game or two to get a shot at a better chance in the lottery. With BB playing 162 games, a team would need to throw so many games that even manfred might notice.
“Rigged in favor”…Oliver Stone on line 1.
Did the Mets just get hosed?
Not really. They fell two spaces, from 7 to 9. Due to their CBT penalties, though, they dropped another ten spots. If they’d lost a few more games, they would have been protected in the top six (ie, they wouldn’t have had to fall ten spots).
They had about a 35% chance to get a top 6 spot but it didnt happen… oh well
“Just get hosed”…Don’t believe them. Clearly, everyone is out to get you.
So the Padres picks after the playoff teams. What a joke. It’s weird for MLB to punish teams for spending then they are all over social media asking who is signing Ohtani for 500+M.
It’s the rule the Padres agreed to.
Then why even include them? MLB knew before today that the Padres wouldn’t pick in the top 18, why did they even put them on the show?
Gotta see where they end up to move them back or didn’t want to have to explain the missing spot. Dunno. I didn’t watch the lottery.
Padres = Last Place
Actually they finished 3rd
Man I guess you’ll have to turn to trades to restock the farm…
They are top 10 so they are fine there plus they are getting the number 1 international FA next month. It’s just funny that MLB wants you to spend and then punishes you when you do.
James Midway: The luxury tax is, in effect, a salary cap.You can spend all of money you want but then you’re punished for it. I might be wrong but the salary cap was first used because of the NY Cosmos, a soccer team in a new league designed to improve U.S. players. But the Cosmos signed every big player, like Pele, they could which destroyed the league. The PA always refuses a cap during CBA negotiations. I wonder if they realize there already is one.
“So the Padres picks”…I was telling a guy just yesterday that MLB DOES have a salary cap, but just don’t use the word “salary cap”. Of course the guy said I was an idiot and that MLB players will NEVER allow a salary cap. The penalties, loss of draft position and fines restrain spending so they’re at least a soft salary cap.
It’s so soft it’s almost irrelevant.
“Its so soft it’s almost irrelevant”..Keep dreaming bro. You can make a strong case it’s actually the MOST RESTRICTIVE cap in all of sports. It’s multi layered and contains numerous restrictions, sanctions and penalties. What other sport can you get fined, lose draft position AND lose international money? Most sports caps contain a singular penalty, whereas MLB’s cap contains numerous penalties, DISincentives and punishments for “overspending”.
What cap sports have teams struggling to spend 50 million and some spending close to 300 million? The main objective of a cap is to have all teams relatively capable of spending the same amount of $. Great for owners to cap player salaries. Hence the salary floor so teams have to spend a certain amount. You can believe what you want but I’m not impressed.
Padres = Last Place
You feel better now that you said it twice?
Angels = Last Place
Mets will still get the same player at 19 that they would have picked at 9. It is. It is not a big deal
It does. Now they have less Draft pool money to use to entice HS guys to no got to College and sign over slot in the 2-8 rounds.
Lol Angels. Losing two stops every year.
Let’s go Reds!
Jesssss!
Reds at #1 is a highway robbery. They’re going to be set up quite nice.
Too bad they don’t have number one…
lol whoops. Meant #2 there. Same point applies!
#2 will suffice!
Reds should sign Bauer..load up with incentives!
So how long does it take to start hearing people whining about how the lottery is rigged?
It’s rigged unless my team gets a good pick
It’s all a conspiracy to benefit the rich, big market teams in Ohio.
All Ohio world series should have even better ratings than a subway series.
Only in Ohio
Not rigged. Just stupid. It should be only for the 4 worst teams. No team should drop more than 1 spot.
Stop the steal!
I don’t think it’s rigged I just think it’s stupid.
I love that the A’s, who tanked hard, fell to #4.
That’s where they want to be. Have you noticed how the best players seem to fall several spots because (it seems) teams don’t want to pay the big slot bonus? I could be crazy…. Not 100% clear on how or why they do it…. I just know they like to save their bonus money for later rounds.
Nice time to be a Reds fan. How long before someone will blame Krall for not getting the first pick.
haha I am just waiting for that ‘po boy’ guy to show up and complain
3-2-1… It’ll happen..
That’s silly. He has no control over ping pong balls.
He DOES have control over getting some good pitching. We’re still waiting on that part.
My opinion of the draft lottery hasn’t changed, but moving up better than down like last year.
Krall suxs…he will be fired in 12 months.Buys furniture at yard sale and then sell it to his fans as new..Yeah great moves last August. Hope he chokes on Bob castawheenie.
Cardinals fans disappointed was hoping for top 3.
You signed 3 solid P..proactive will = wins
You lost me at “solid”
Is this list accurate? Yankees were #16 on the list (mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2024-draft-lottery-odds…), but now they are 25th? From my understanding they would normally be no less than 18th.
Nevermind. I forgot about the surpassing the luxury tax threshold moving back the pick 10 spots. Now it makes sense.
Not sure why they’re listed at 25th. Shouldn’t they be 26th if they dropped 10 spots?
“It’s rigged!”
Unless someone between 1`6 and 25 spent over the luxury tax cap and they also went back slots?
This is most likely the correct draft order. Yankees are at pick 26.
mlb.com/news/mlb-2024-draft-lottery-results
The draft lottery makes no sense in the MLB since prospects have to incubate in the minors for multiple season. There’s just so much luck in the mlb draft I mean one of the greatest players of this generation, Mike trout, was drafted 25th overall.
Draft positions are assigned slot values. Those funds can be used at any point in the top 10.
So, yes, you get to pick earlier but you also have more money to sign guys.
@Halos
Yeah. In some drafts there’s a clear far and away talent that you have the advantage of getting but in most years that extra draft pool cash is the key advantage.
Prospects incubating in the minors for multiple seasons??? Exhibit A = Nolan Schanuel!
Yup…good call!
I agree with your point BO, but the draft lottery makes total sense because teams WERE tanking. No question.
I don’t think there were that many that were completely tanking.
The A’s are the clear and obvious one. The Nats obviously were not expecting to be any good. But they had payroll commitments from previous years and made some moves.
The Royals were trying to compete despite the terrible roster. The Rockies are always disillusioned with their position. Pirates? Could’ve added more to the help big league club but I think they had hopes of being competitive.
I don’t think it was a huge issue.
Then the Padres were stuck in dreamland!
The best safest players will be taken first. Higher the the pick the better odds. Who were the 2nd 3rd 4th best players taken at 25? 25 might be a lucky number but what about 24 23 22? I would bet 1 2 3 4 have better. Draft pool is key now as well.
I don’t thing it did anything for tanking. It was more about trading away players. And teams would just tank for draft pick odds. This year had 2 percent team but most years this shouldn’t happen.
More first overall picks work out than 25th picks. Any pick does have a chance though.
Remember less than a year ago, when Colin Cowherd thought MLB teams could trade 1st rd picks in advance and discussed it on-air? Lol
Nope but doesn’t surprise me. Most sports reporters are pretty clueless.
He redeemed himself by guaranteeing a deceased QB would not win the SB.
The Angels even lose in the draft lottery.
“As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections.”
If you really want to offer clubs an incentive to remain competitive, then offer the first pick to the WS champion and the team with worst record receives the final pick of the first round.
And if you REALLY want all teams to be competitive, you institute a salary cap.
And if you really want all teams to be competitive, share the revenue equally, as the market sizes are not equal.
The problem is that so much of the tv money is regionally based. If YES, SNY, NESN, MASN etc all died (MASN can’t die soon enough) and MLB distributed the games itself under one umbrella, then you could possibly have real revenue sharing.
You’ll have a really lopsided league if you keep giving the top teams the most money to draft prospects. Homegrown talent is the lifeblood of an organization. Team won’t be built in free agency.
That’s true. There is a glaring lack of player development with most clubs. Tampa Bay does it year in and year out while trading or non-tendering their best players.
Draft lottery is a joke. Just like all of Manfrauds ideas. First mistake he made is not lifting Pete Rose’s ban (30 years already at the time).
This was the Players Association’s idea, not Manfred’s.
Pete Rose is a degenerate gambler who broke the one sacred rule in baseball. And, yes, there’s proof he both bet as a player and didn’t always bet to win as a manager.
> First mistake he made is
> not lifting Pete Rose’s ban
Why would you unban him?
Pete Rose first mistake was gambling on baseball. Second mistake was agreeing to the life long ban.
I’ve long thought Rose accepted the ban to prevent further investigations into his dealings.
One of his bookies was caught up in a RICO case and had ledgers of Rose gambling as a player; something he didn’t admit to when he took the ban but would’ve definitely prevented reinstatement.
Then there’s the ledgers showing his management on the games he didn’t bet. Pretty damning.
And the “I thought she was 16” girl he was banging while being a married father of kids nearly her age.
None of this is in the initial investigation by MLB. And Rose didn’t want it public.
Those were his second and third mistakes… his first mistake was that haircut.
The agreement also stated he could apply for reinstatement, but it doesn’t seem like MLB has been willing to even consider that an option.
The next mistake he made was to not overturn Jim Joyce’s blunder and award Armando Gallaraga his perfect game.
I respect Jim Joyce for his immediate response and comments. His apology is one of the most heartfelt I’ve witnessed. I know nothing about him personally, but the character both men displayed in the aftermath made this story far more memorable than many “legitimate” perfect games. I’ll always remember it.
100% agreed on all fronts. It definitely was sincere and heartfelt and the game is more memorable.
I’m happy with Pete Rose remaining permanently ineligible.
Pretty sure Cleveland has never had the #1 pick in the draft. After being the worst franchise from 1961 to 1993, they were never the worst team in a given year. That is an impressive way to suck.
They would have but MLB had that stupid alternate AL/NL rule.
The only portion of the bonus pool that would be involved would be the first round as the draft order reverts to overall record for the 2nd round on
Yep. Only the largest most significant amount is involved.
Go Redlegs!
Nobody in the industry can tell me this BS isn’t rigged. MLB is a joke. The lottery blows,the draft blows,free agency is an absolute snoozefest and they’ve ruined the playoffs letting teams in that have no business in the postseason. Keep it up MLB you’ve almost killed the entire game.
So mlb wants small fly over cities getting the best players? Awful business decision.
Just small flyover cities… and home to two of the most historic teams in baseball history. No big deal.
@Cincyfan85 Exactly
Stick to hockey then.
Stick that hockey stick ……
If you are a fan of handcrafted American made footwear my apologies.
Yeah, no way the Rangers or D-backs should have been “allowed” in the playoffs this year. Losers
They need to make all draft picks tradable that would make the draft so much more fun!!
Rigged. Texas should have 1st pick.
1. PJ Morlando
2. Nick Kurtz
3. Cam Caminiti
Just a guess
Hopefully CC doesn’t like his uncles special potion!
So dumb.
Never liked the lottery system like the NBA, but gotta prevent tanking. There’s gotta be a better way to balance this so a team like the Reds isn’t given the #2 pick. The cubs at 14 and reds at 2 just doesn’t seem right with their records being similar.
Maybe some combination of record, market size/revenue and lottery would be a better system. Where a big market team or one with a good record has a cap on how high of a pick they can win.
Reds had less than 1% chance. No big deal, just a weird outcome.
likely Krall gets to add a bigtime college bat with the #2 pick. Could be a better class of prospects promoted to the ML in 2026-27 as there was in 2022-23..
Why does everything have to be a gimmick?
I ran a million simulations of the draft for this article talknats.com/2023/12/05/the-2024-draft-lottery/ on https://www.TalkNats.com. There was not one instance in those million simulations where Cleveland got 1 and Cincinnati got 2. Just proof that rare things happen.
How much potential pool money did the Guardians gain? This is a massive coup for them. Changes their entire draft.
Good for the Indians
You mean the Furniture Makers?
My 112-loss A’s can’t even win a draft lottery, or even come in 2nd, or even 3rd
Rather than moving to Vegas, the A’s should be contracted. They are a blight upon MLB.
The A’s have the 5th best record in MLB since 2000, right? They’ve made the playoffs 11 times since 2000 and were division champs in 2020. Most teams would kill for that type of success
And can’t draft higher than 10th in 2025 regardless of their record in 2024.
The draft lottery is implemented the 2 years the A’s decide to tank with 100+ loss seasons (first time in 40+ years), and they get the 6th and 4th picks????????
That’s a good thing. Tanking should be punished, not rewarded.
With a lottery, tanking isn’t necessarily rewarded.
The Astros lost 100 games 3 years in a row (almost made it 4 years in a row), and they just kept getting #1 pick over and over again. Now they have a dynasty. Distigusting
The stros success is due to a lot more than those top draft choices. They’ve improved more players from other orgs than anyone outside of TB. The international market success they’ve had is tremendous too. Garcia, Valdez, and Javier in the rotation currently. Abreu at the backend of the bullpen. Obviously Altuve as well. They’ve done well in later rounds getting quality players also.
.
Having the #1 overall pick in 2011, 2012, and 2013, and the #2 overall pick in 2014 certainly doesn’t hurt. Yes, it obviously takes more than just your #1 pick
They only got the 2nd pick because they didn’t sign Brady Aiken the year before.
But it certainly helped. Despite whiffing on Mark Appel.
Yeah as an A’s who loosely followed Stanford, the thought of the Astros getting Appel was a scary thought at the time
So, a lottery prevents that at least somewhat.
Sounds like baseball got their draft lottery right.
Hockey had theirs’ right and then the Red Wings whined and whined and they made it worse to placate them.
As long as it wasn’t the Pirates for the 754th year in a row, I’m cool.
Julio- It is not nearly that long but it does not matter because they do not develop them anyway.
Is any of this material going to be on the final exam?
Wow nice to be a reds fan right now.
So the three teams that this helped the most (not counting playoff teams) were…
The Reds: Received the second lottery pick despite being in playoff contention until the second to last day of the season
The Guardians: Received the first lottery pick despite not being a bottom feeder in 2023.
The Mariners: The best regular season team that failed to make the playoffs in 2023 (under the old system the Twins, Diamondbacks and Marlins would have drafted before them).
The three teams that this hurt the most (again, not counting playoff teams) were…
The Nationals (crap team that got hit by that no lottery picks two years in a row for non-revenue sharing recipients and also can’t draft higher than 10th rule)
Royals (received a lottery pick but a lower one than the standings say they should have recieved)
A’s (see Royals, also will not be allowed to draft higher than tenth overall in 2025).
Excited for the Guardians that they won something. Number 1 is a lot of draft capital.
It will be interesting to see what the Guardians do with their 1st pick. It is not uncommon for them go with a guy under slot value for their first overall pick – and then go overslot on multiple guys throughout the remainder of the draft. I feel like that probably doesn’t happen if you have a top 5 pick – which they haven’t had in some time.
Draft picks can now be traded, correct? Once Dolan realizes the slot value of that pick, you can kiss it goodbye.
Only competitive balance picks can be traded.
Why did the Nationals even have a ball in there? They weren’t eligible! Then they “win” but don’t get to keep it. That’s Manfred playing a cruel joke…..
FIXED FIXED FIXED
Now if they would only change that ridiculously stupid Guardians name back to the Indians everything would be okay.
The lottery rules are such a joke