Catcher Francisco Álvarez is interested in discussing a long-term extension with the Mets, reports Tim Healey of Newsday. The club’s new president of baseball operations David Stearns spoke positively about extensions of young players in a general sense but declined to speak about an Álvarez extension specifically.
“It’s something that every organization has to explore and requires both sides to have interest,” Stearns said. “And certainly, as we go forward, hopefully we’ll have a number of players in that second and third [year] where it makes sense to talk to them about it.”
Álvarez, 22, has just over a year in the big leagues and has carried himself well. He has 26 home runs in 128 career games. His 26.1% strikeout rate is a tad high but he’s also walked at a reasonable 8.2% clip. His .208/.284/.439 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been just barely below the league average hitter overall, though that’s better than par for a catcher.
In addition to that solid performance at the plate, he was graded well behind it. Each of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast considered him to be one of the top five pitch framers in the league this year. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of +7 in 2023, a mark that only seven catchers bested that season. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.7 wins above replacement on the season overall.
Since he debuted before his 21st birthday, Álvarez is currently slated to reach free agency at a relatively young age. He has just over one year of service time at the moment, meaning he would hit the open market after 2028, his age-26 season. That will give him some leverage in contract talks, as he could simply go year-to-year and cash in at that point. But signing a deal now would allow him to lock in some life-changing money and avoid the risk of an injury sapping some of his earning power. As Healey points out, Álvarez could give the Mets an extra couple of years of control and still become a free agent in his late 20s.
The Mets have been one of the most aggressive spenders in recent years, with owner Steve Cohen having shown little regard for the bottom line since purchasing the club. That presumably gives them the ability to lock in any player they decide they want to keep. They have some significant contracts on the books in the short term, some for players no longer on the roster, but extensions for young players generally ramp up over time, with smaller salaries in the early years.
By 2028, only Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have guaranteed contracts. Between now and then, significant deals for Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, James McCann, José Quintana, Luis Severino, Kodai Senga, Starling Marte, Edwin Díaz and Jeff McNeil will have wrapped up. But if the club makes a bold move, such as signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto or extending Pete Alonso, then that would obviously change things.
But given Cohen’s willingness to spend when he decides it’s warranted, they should be able to make something work with Álvarez if they consider him a core part of their next competitive window. It’s been signalled that 2024 will be a bit of a transition year as the club targets another full throttle push in 2025 and beyond. Álvarez is on pace to qualify for arbitration after that 2025 season so the club might like to get some cost certainty by agreeing to something earlier.
Extensions for players early in their careers are becoming more common. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez and Jackson Chourio got notable guarantees before even reaching the majors while players like Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodríguez and Fernando Tatis Jr. got nine-figure guarantees with limited MLB experience.
In terms of catchers, Keibert Ruiz signed an extension with the Nationals in March. He secured a $50MM guarantee over eight years while also giving the Nats two club options. Like Álvarez now, Ruiz was also between one and two years of service at that time but was a couple of years older, going into his age-24 campaign. His results prior to that deal were also bit below those of Álvarez, both offensively and defensively, so the Mets would almost certainly have to beat that Ruiz deal to get something done with Álvarez.
There’s no real rush for the club, as Álvarez isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2025. Even if they want to get something done this winter, teams generally prefer to focus on acquisitions in the earlier parts of the offseason and leave extensions for rostered players until closer to Spring Training.
I hope announcing that you’re open to getting more money becomes a thing outside baseball as well.
The LI loudmouths have much reason to be optimistic with this budding star, their #4 ranked farm system and the richest owner in US sport. They just need to be patient and let Stearns cook
LI Loudmouths? While technically Queens is on the same side of the water as Long Island, it is part of NYC.
Good move for the Mets, Fran reeks of potential
Get it done
Hard for me to see someone bat 209 and not see sanchez
Bat .239 and you’re Grandal.
Why? Minors career BA of 273 and converted to MLB level, he loses about 18% of his production, resulting in a .224 BA, in line with his production so far. wOBA so far of .316 is below average. His cater metrics aren’t even that great. Only good thing is framing and once we get rid of the umpires, that won’t matter much. DFA candidate.
relax buddy boy, it was his rookie season. There is always time to improve, they’re not going to DFA a previous top 10 mlb prospect after only one year. Look at bobby witt jr, see how he improved a ton? There is also CJ Abrams who also made massive improvements. They also never said they would extend him RIGHT NOW, so nothing to worry about even if he’s kind of bad rn.
@swagsuperawesomeepiccoolman123
In two seasons, Bobby has essentially hit 7% above his minors numbers for his BA but it’s within the same range. I wouldn’t say he improved a ton. His minors wOBA was 0.370 over two years but his MLB career wOBA is 0.328 so a bit of a drop. but within the 18% drop range for the move from AAA to MLB. I can see some regression coming to the means but not suggesting he’s not decent. For these two stats, I use as predictive stats.
DFA candidate you’re kidding, right? A consensus top 100 prospect 4 years running all progressive each year, two futures games, and playing at MLB level at age 21.
This is a troll comment, right?
Of course its a troll comment. But you’re making the wrong arguments. What he did in the minors, and where BA ranked him has no bearing on this. Its about what he is now and where he is heading. There are still flaws in his game that need work. If he builds and improves an last year (and I believe he will), then he’ll get his extension in due time. I don’t think that time is now.
I think the extension talk is relevant. This is a very common practice for even big market teams to talk about extensions with young unproven talent. I don’t see the harm in discussing being open to extension talks now at all.
I think scouting, rankings, minor league play, and MLB play all are a part of the process in figuring out if it’s worth a deal or not. For the Mets money isn’t really an issue but still if they have the chance to pay a premium position a higher than usual first few year but much cheaper peak years it’s worth consideration. They play out well sometimes like with Acuna and sometimes you end up with a Jose Tabata.
@Macbeth
The problem is, facts usually defeat feelings and you’re defending feelings.
Fact, he was a top 100 prospect 4 years running by all 3 major prospect rangers. Fact, he played in 2 futures games. Fact he played in the majors at 21.
Me disagreeing with your FEELING that he’s a DFA candidate is my only feeling.
Fact, it is exceptionally rare for a team to DFA a player with similar trajectory.
@Macbeth
Doesn’t matter if your a top 100 prospect. Most top prospects don’t last long or even make it to the majors. So, that’s another feeling thing. Strike.
I gave my reason for the DFA. Had nothing to do with feelings. I base all my decisions on facts not feelings.
A trajectory of mediocracy? I guess, given it’s the Mets, that’s true.
I clearly laid out what facts were made and how that draws to my conclusion that your opinion is not sound. I’m sorry you can’t follow that and it seems everyone else that commented on this agrees.
@Macbeth
He’s not a top anything based on the data. Good luck, though.
Your a dad candidate for your comments.
@Mets6986
A dad candidate? What does that even mean?
Macbeth didn’t say anything that should lead anyone to think he was speaking his feelings. Further, when you look at his splits month to month you see that his production is much mor complicated than just totalling up his production. He’s so young and inexperienced we have to look at Alvarez’s month to month production and wonder which player he is.
Additionally, bringing up Alvarez’s minor league production you go straight to his BA and don’t seem to care about his OBP and SLG. His OPS in the minors is fantastic.
Do it
Somehow would backfire knowing the Mets luck.
There’s a lot to like in what we’ve seen of Alvarez thus far. But he is young and there is still room for improvement in several areas. And young players do sometimes regress for a year before moving forward again. Good sense dictates that it is not yet the time for an extension. If waiting a year or two on an extension costs the Mets more money, so be it.
Make him a lifer!
Keep him motivated to produce and develop positive culture. Basically the opposite of WSox extending Eloy/Moncada way too soon.
10 years 125 mil
Queens isn’t just on the same side of the water as Long Island, Queens is literally on Long Island. Being a borough of NYC doesn’t change that.