Brewers ace Corbin Burnes, one year away from reaching the open market, is among the most compelling names on the trade market for starting pitchers this offseason. The Brewers haven’t actively shopped Burnes, but that hasn’t stopped other clubs from expressing interest. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that executives with other clubs are of the impression that there’s a legitimate chance of Burnes ultimately being moved. Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, however, frames things differently, noting that Milwaukee GM Matt Arnold said this week that he still expects Burnes to be his Opening Day starter.
If the Brewers are shopping Burnes at all, Arnold isn’t tipping his hand on the matter either in public comments or in comments made to Burnes’ agent, Scott Boras. As McCalvy writes, Boras said at this week’s Winter Meetings that “everything I’ve heard from Milwaukee is that they’re putting together a competitive team to win the division in ’24.” Boras added that the Brewers haven’t approached him about a long-term extension, but it seems they’ve also not given any signal that Burnes could be on the move.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic once again brought up the possibility of a Burnes/Willy Adames package heading to the Dodgers, noting that Wisconsin native Gavin Lux could be of interest to a Brewers club with some infield uncertainty (which would only be exacerbated by a trade of Adames, of course). There’s no clear indication that a trade of that nature is currently being discussed, to be clear. Similarly, Rosenthal’s colleague Brendan Kuty speculated this morning that if the Yankees ultimately miss out on NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they could turn their focus to Burnes. Again, that’s not a firm report that talks have taken place, but Burnes is a logical option both for clubs that miss out on top free agents (e.g. Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery) and for teams that have no intention of spending at the levels necessary to sign those free agents in the first place.
[Related: Looking for a Match in a Corbin Burnes trade]
Arnold openly acknowledged this week that demand for Burnes has been high (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). The GM unsurprisingly didn’t tip his hand one way or another, but speaking in more general terms did note that the Winter Meetings are often a place where groundwork on larger trades can be done. Arnold explained to Rosiak and others that much of the framework of last year’s three-team Sean Murphy/William Contreras/Esteury Ruiz trade was put into place at the Winter Meetings, but a trade didn’t come together for several more days while the Brewers, A’s and Braves worked out the complementary pieces in the swap.
Burnes, 29, pitched to a 3.39 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate in 193 2/3 innings atop Milwaukee’s rotation this past season. Over the past four years, he’s compiled a 2.86 earned run average with a 30.9% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 46.4% ground-ball rate in 622 1/3 innings. He’s been highly durable, pitching in 105 games during that time and only hitting the injured list for an oblique strain that sidelined him less than a month. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $15.1MM salary for Burnes in his final season of arbitration.
Padres also said they weren’t trading Soto..
Maybe that has changed since they acquired a few lower level pitchers from the Yanks. Plus it seems more clear now tha the Pads can’t afford Burnes
They just free’d up 33m. Was reported they had 20-25m to spend before that. So 50+m they can afford some players.
They are going hard on Lee and I can see Burnes who makes 15m next year depending on the prospect cost.
I can see it, but doubt it now
They never claimed they weren’t trading Soto. They claimed they didn’t have to trade Soto. (They could have traded everyone else, or just held open tryouts to the public to fill their pitching staff)
The Brewers are terrible. They will trade him if the offer is good.
Why are they terrible?
Because they have and never will go all in. They run a below-market-rate team as cheaply as possible with the façade of competing. They manage to win a weak division on years when the Cardinals or Cubs are off and call it good. They will not catch lightning in a bottle because they currently have no lightning on their roster to catch. Every good player they get they fight tooth and nail with in arbitration and then trade them to a serious contender rather than taking care of their homegrown talent. They can develop guys (not good enough to rely solely on that as the Rays do, but still well above average), but they can never pair those arb and pre-arb guys with legitimate talent around them because they are simply too cheap. We’ve seen this over and over and over again from them. It’s just how Milwaukee operates, and, ironically, is why they are one of five teams to have never won a World Series
This is completely not true. The Brewers are the smallest media market in baseball with the smallest TV deal and they consistently are in the 17-21 range in spending. They also have the 6th most wins in all of baseball since 2017, more than the big market Red Sox, Mets, Phillies and oh yeah, the Cardinals and Cubs you mention.
They are never going to be able to run a massive payroll, but they’re not the Pirates or A’s. They are a well run team that always puts out a competitive team and is in the thick of it until the end. The playoffs are a crap shoot for the most part with so many teams. This is not Bud Selig’s 90’s Brewers. So yeah, bad take.
I said they aren’t going all in, you said they will never be able to run a massive payroll. I’m not sure what you’re disagreeing with other than the Brewers probably aren’t going to win a World Series anytime soon.
what small market team can go all in? what did the parres get for going all in? same thing the brewers did.. there is only one ws winner each year. most of the time it isn’t the team that went all in, it is the team that was hot at the right moment.
The spending excuse is so tired and now just a talking point for fair weather fans. Arizona is on the phone. They want to tell you what their payroll was on opening day last year. You can’t buy a championship. Stop talking like you can.
The median average team in the World Series for the past 10 years carried a payroll of about $125MM.
Well said
@breadbirds
The Brewers go “all in” to the level they can. No, its not the Yankees, Mets, or Dodgers “all in” level, but they are in a market 1/7th the size. They operate how they do, because it works for them.
I didn’t realize that going “all in” guarantees a World Series win.
Juice – the Texas rangers totally didn’t go all in (sarcasm)
Red Sox have won a World Series since 2017, Milwaukee is bragging about what exactly by bringing them into the argument? Lol
I was just poking fun. Teams that go all in often do win. It’s just not always linear. Also the red Sox win in 2018 and they have 4 in the last 20 years. What’s your point?
lol. They’re clearly not terrible. But I think the fans would like to hear some proposals that’d enable them to push further in the near and not distant future. Big infield bats and high level near ready pitching in return.
Clearly. Just look at the rings!
Moving the goal posts. Every team that doesn’t win the World Series is terrible? Maybe step away from the keyboard. Take a walk, do some drugs…
Win a championship and I won’t be able to say that next time.
“They run a below-market-rate team as cheaply as possible with the façade of competing. They manage to win a weak division on years when the Cardinals or Cubs are off and call it good”
I pointed out that they actually run well above their market size so this is just wrong. And what exactly is all in? For most people, it’s a massive payroll.
“Every good player they get they fight tooth and nail with in arbitration and then trade them to a serious contender rather than taking care of their homegrown talent.”
The same team that just gave a record contract to home grown Chourio, extended Freddie Peralta, Aaron Ashby, Ryan Braun twice and oh yeah, Christian Yelich. They can’t afford Burnes unless they would have got an extension in place a long time ago but he’s a Boras client so not happening. Every team does this in arbitration and the only one I remember was Burnes getting salty because he decided to attend the hearing.
Just a lot of false generalizations. You seem like a hater so carry on.
Ha ha, proud Cardinals fan. Well done. Definitely don’t keep up much with the Brew Crew, but can’t pass a good opportunity to take some jabs, lol. That was a good response.
I’m not a Brewers fan, but I think trading for Yelich counts as “going all in”
Proud of them 91 losses and being in last place?
Wise counsell, if you’re referring to me I don’t mean the team is terrible, though they likely will be. I mean they are terribly run. They alienate players by taking them to arbitration to pinch every penny, they cheap out and hire an ex college manager who I believe was accused of recruiting violations and when they do sign guys, they give out stupid contracts that bite them in the butt.
Terrible? NL Central had a downyear, but they still won it and return much of the team. You can make an argument that they need Burnes even more without Woodruff. They’re not going to punt the season, so there’s no reason they would part with arguably the best available SP for anything less than a haul — or they could trade him at Deadline, when they’ll have a better read on their contention.
With the balanced schedule the “weak division” thing is narrative is bullticky.
Possibly, but anytime STL, typically a division heavyweight, finishes in last place and 5 GB of PIT — it’s a down year.
The Yankees got no pitching left to offer unfortunately.
I think even if the Brewers trade Burnes, they’d still field a competitive team in 2024. I’m not counting them out of being in contention next year.
Nah they still have some talented arms but will likely hold onto them with their pitching depth now looking thin
The true depth for the Brewers is their bullpen. It allows for shortened games when you can throw eras of 1s 2s and 3s out of the pen from all angles. Pitching depth will change from the rotation standpoint. I just don’t expect a huge drop-off if the rookies and prospect hitters improve to off set some of the starting pitching reduction.
Their pitching looks better because they play defensive players instead of offensive players. It is the cheaper option right now. Like the old commercial “chicks love the long ball” Which also means the lomg ball is expensive to obtain.
The Brewers will be passed by the Reds and Cardinals next season. They could also be passed by the Cubs, if they land Ohtani (not likely though)
You know what they say about opinions and predictions….
no…what?
The Cardinals are a mess and they haven’t signed any pitcher that is going to be significantly better than last season’s rotation.
The Reds also haven’t done anything to address their woeful pitching
The Cubs are the better club, but they also need to address their line up, by bringing back Bellinger or getting someone to replace him.
It is still too early to make predictions on the NL Central, but as of right now, the Brewers have the least amount of question marks.
How did the Cardinals improve? Wainwright, Flaherty, and Montgomery versus Gibson, Lynn, and Gray. Is pretty much a wash. The Cards have one player in Walker that you could expect a jump in production, but he is about the only one you could hope to expect that from.
Send him for more pitching prospects that are close. It’s how the rays stay in first despite 1 5th the money of the yanks. It’s no fun for fans but winning is fun and in the long run that’s how u win in an uneven playing field.
Unfortunately the Rays have yet to win a World Series either. Talent evaluation and player development are necessary components of fielding a competitive team, but eventually the teams that rely on them have to take the plunge. Milwaukee and Tampa have always failed to do so. Imagine the NLCS Brewers team a couple years ago with a legit free agent acquisition on it, or any of Tampa’s World Series teams with just one more bonafide stud. Those are teams that easily compete for and possibly win championships. We’ll see if Baltimore learns from others’ mistakes.
Grandal and Lorenzo Cain weren’t legit free agents. Are they only legit if you have to commit to 8 bad years on the back end. Teams like the Brewers can’t do this. See above.
Yeah! Can you imagine of they had just kicked out for Bauer or Rodon, or even Ray! Maybe they could have signed Rendon or Story! Those big money studs have all the rings!
Rendon does have a ring.
Lorenzo Cain was on the first year of a five year eighty million$ deal in 2018 so what is your point, without that deal on the books (or perhaps some production from it) the ‘22 team would’ve had a much easier time making the playoffs, but what’s really strange to me is why you’re even commenting on crap you’re clearly not familiar with, u know you’re not heavily invested in the topic, if u were you’d have a clue.. but why post a comment pretending your opinion contains the be all end all to really completing, you’re a facade and so are your ”takes”..gtfo here with that, clearly the Crew doesn’t need your help winning baseball games they’ve been doing a great job of that for a while now and have a LOADED farm.. instead of going around pretending to have a clue why not actually get one, Jesus is real and he’ll fix that if u let him, and again if u gave two turds about the topic you’d probably have one so why not save it for crap you’re actually familiar with..
clarke schmidt and lifetime supply of pringles for burnes.
do it. do it.
Mmmmmm Pringles….
Yankees don’t have the farm to get burnes
You’re right, but the DBacks do.
What exactly does Kuty think the Yanks have the brewers would want?? They traded everything of value away last night
Breslow get in there
It doesn’t make sense to keep him for mid season trade or let him walk for a single draft pick. He gone.
What if keeping him leads to BreadBird’s championship?
The Dodgers could get him if they paid what he’s worth, but they’re being shy
No news is no news.
I am looking forward to his next arbitration hearing where the Brewers will claim he blew the playoff game and they can get him to give a $1m discount on 2024 season before they trade him and get a better return
4IP, 3HRs, and 4 runs. He certainly didn’t pitch ace-like in his last game against the D-backs. I probably mention it to save some coin on a guy who wants out anyway.
Article should read Ken Rosenthal of the Los Angeles Dodgers after that proposal
Yankees might want to have any prospects that have a Plus rating in their scouting reports. All I see are future 45-55 grades.
Again with Burnes- his contract isn’t officially set. That adds value one way vs the other. You have QO that has value to comp balance clubs, vs luxury tax clubs. Trading him around deadline there aren’t any of these questions. Brewers will have a much clearer idea on Ashby-Gasser impact. Chourio+2nd yr bats. They may be a WS stacked lineup-stacked 1/2 SP. Let’s see a healthier season for them and check in come July.
It’s time to get this done Dodgers Miller, Stone, Pepiot, Lux, Feducci and Busch for Burnes, Adames and Taylor.
Only if the Dodgers throw in the team bus and Andy Friedman’s first born.
How about Stone, Pepiot, and Lux for Burnes, Adames, and Weimer?
Laughable. For Adames and Wiemer. Maybe. What’s the offer for Burnes?
Why isn’t Sheehan being the headline in a Burnes trade? He matches the age-production compared for development-more team control. These other dog idea offers are underdeveloped yet less team control and 25 years of age. Zero interest in ever offering an extension to an over 30yr old beyond team control.its like hey we want the best SP for our team with 200IP and QO coming. Take our solid but garbage #4 or higher prospects you won’t get 180+IP from til they are in Arbitration…if they stay 100pct healthy.
Don’t know that Sheehan rates a headline, but he’s more moveable than either Pepiot or Miller, both of whom figured to be in the rotation. Makes little sense to trade two starters to get one.
They posted an article on him last season having the best fast ball in the minors and being a rising prospect. If he hadn’t graduated, I imagine he’s a top 40 if not top 20 prospect in pipeline. I thought I seen him in the 60s recently.
He’d only be 24 in 2024. Has reached 120+IP in a single season at that age. 6 more years team control means done at age 29, which means you could give an young extension +1/+2 seasons setting them to be a FA for after age 30/31 season. The others are all 25+ controlled through age 30 or plus seasons. With I don’t believe a single season exceeding 125IP within it.
No way the Dodgers trade Miller
Looks filthy. Agree Miller would be an untouchable. Sheehan would be an ultimate get this offseason. Untouchable likely come trade deadline for the likes of both Burnes-Adames(unless Adames had a 270+BA hitting dingers)
I just can’t fathom any Burnes trade without 1 SP that has at least potential to be a #2 ceiling. Yankees have none of those to offer right now.
As a Crew fan I couldn’t have come up with a better proposal myself, Crew=take that deal!!
He’s headed to the Cubs!
The Brewers don’t have to shop Burns. The offers will come to them.
Angels need Burnes!!
Jo Adell for Burnes straight up!
Great, a 6th outfielder! Who needs infielders when you have six (SIX) outfielders?!
If the DBacks were able to get Burnes in a trade for McCarthy, Lawler, and other negotiable minor leaguers, they would have the best rotation in MLB.
As long as there are divisions, the Crew will always be in the hunt for the central. Get rid of divisions.
Sure, and just get rid of all the small-market teams while you’re at it! No humans actually live in those cities anyway, right Zeus? Screw ’em!
@zeus
You must be a fan of a large market team! Isn’t the deck stacked enough in your favor?
I want the Orioles to get burns because outside of the Brewers they were my favorite team growing up. So how about Burns and Taylor for Basallo, Norby, Povich, Nunez and Bright. Try to get the comp balance pick also
I would want Cowser in a deal for Burnes.
Looking the proposal over. Basalla is an intriguing name if he could hold down 1b. Catcher the Brewers are covered there til 2040 if they decide they want Quero to be a lifer like Cards with Molina. The rest of the offer-Black is a better Norby for 2b. OF the Brewers are 5 deep for 6+ years right now. The 3 pitchers all have warts that make no sense in acquiring. Nunez will be a victim of Rule 5 before he makes the majors or is traded and played to 45-55 win teams. Bright is the only one I see as a 4th man quality intrigue. Need a SP the Crew would envision being better than just a #3 ceiling for a trade to happen giving up an Ace in MLB.
I don’t think the Brewers are going to move Corbin Burnes without a solid young starter with several years of team control or elite near MLB ready starter prospect mixed into the package.
Burnes is going to net them a Comp A pick at the very least, plus he maintains the team’s viability in the playoffs if they make it.
MLB-ready starting pitcher and MLB-ready corner infielder, plus more, at a minimum for Burnes.
Burnes cost them IN the playoffs last year..
I wonder how much he’d get on a potential extension or in FA being that Eduardo Rodriguez just got 20 M AAV and Sonny Gray 25 AAV and 75 guaranteed, the market is hyperinflated
Rosenthal thinks the Dodgers are a fit b/c they have a part-time infielder from Kenosha (not even Milwaukee) to offer in return…? How do these guys get jobs?
Yankees will get burnes and glasnow.