Last night’s Braves/Mariners trade saw Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White go from Seattle to Atlanta, but it seems Gonzales’ stay with the Braves will be brief. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Braves aren’t planning to keep Gonzales and expect to move him in another trade. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds that Gonzales himself expected as much to happen after being informed he’d been traded to Atlanta. It’s not yet clear if there’s an imminent trade involving Gonzales or if he’s being shopped around at present, but it’s a notable revelation with regard to the Braves’ rotation outlook all the same.
Gonzales, 32 in February, is due to earn $12MM this season in the final season of a four-year, $30MM extension he signed back in 2020. The contract also contains a $15MM club option for the 2025 season, which does not come with a buyout.
The soft-tossing Gonzales was a quality member of the Seattle rotation from 2018-22, pitching 765 2/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball along the way. He became quite homer-prone in 2021, however, and saw an already below-average strikeout rate dip to concerning levels in 2022. Gonzales still posted a solid earned run average over those two seasons, but the home run and strikeout trends were noted red flags.
While the lefty managed to cut back on the homers he allowed in 2023, Gonzales was still tagged for a grim 5.22 ERA in 50 innings. His 15.8% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in the game and the second-worst of his Mariners tenure. His 8.4% walk rate was the worst of his career. Three of his ten starts last year were actually quite serviceable, but Gonzales was clobbered for eight runs on two occasions and also served up four runs through five innings in his first outing of the year. Ultimately, a left forearm strain ended his season in late May.
For the Braves, it’s sensible to see them look to move Gonzales elsewhere. He’d at best have been a fifth starter candidate in a team that boasts Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder in the top four spots on the staff. His $12MM salary also pushed the Braves into the second tier of luxury penalization.
The Associated Press reports that Seattle is set to send $4.5MM to Atlanta to cover part of that $12MM sum — $12.25MM, if counting the $250K assignment bonus Gonzales received as part of being traded. As such, the Braves would only owe Gonzales about $7.75MM in actual salary, but he’s still cost them a bit more than $10MM once factoring in the penalties the team would’ve incurred under the competitive balance tax.
That’s probably more than the Braves care to spend on a back-of-the-rotation candidate who’s not clearly a superior option to in-house candidates like AJ Smith-Shawver and Dylan Dodd, and it might even be more than Gonzales could expect to command on the open market after an injury-marred season. Presumably, if and when Gonzales changes hands a second time, those cost-savings will be redirected to his new team.
While Gonzales perhaps isn’t a fit for a win-now Braves club with at least four healthier and better options in the rotation ahead of him, that doesn’t mean he can’t help another club. There are several teams throughout the league — Royals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox, Padres, Nationals to name a few — who are simply looking for innings to round out the starting staff. Gonzales’ 50 frames last year don’t paint the picture of an innings eater, but he’d averaged 30 starts and 174 frames over his past four 162-game seasons prior to 2023 (plus 11 starts and 69 2/3 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign). If Gonzales’ medicals show that the forearm strain which ended his season is in the rearview mirror, another club might feel it can comfortably rely on him for 150ish innings this coming season. And if the Mariners are footing roughly a third of the bill regardless of where Gonzales lands, he could be viewed as a relatively affordable source of those innings at a time when veteran free agents in their late 30s (i.e. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson) are commanding $12-13MM for similar roles.
Welp
I’m still not getting this trade….if we took on all this salary at least let him eat up some innings. None of these guys make the team better than they already are and now add more constraints to the payroll….But maybe Kelenic breaks and it was all worth it.
What’s not to get? Kelenic was a 2 bWAR player in 2023 in two-thirds of the year, and still considered a disappointment, which would still be an improvement over Rosario when factoring in Kelenic is pre-arb and will be paid pennies on the dollar with a lot of upside that Rosario coudn’t have. Sure, Kelenic is a risk and a project, but ATL has that luxury, especially considering the FA market for a COF replacement upgrade is most assuredly 2-3x time that $24.5M they paid (Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, not even including Belli, etc.).
Great analysis
That’s true, but if you include all of the money ATL took on in the deal, it’s sorta like paying the going rate for a corner OF. And, they’ll probably have to throw in some sort of sweetener to get rid of Gonzales. Seems like getting a lot of work for little upgrade.
@JCP — That’s factored in ($24.5M), which is also spread across more than just 1 year, but you’re not getting Teoscar (2.1 bWAR in ’23) or Lourdes (3.0 bWAR in ’23) for 1 year/24.5M, so you’re really not paying market rate, especially multiple years of control Kelenic represents at a rock bottom price. Sure, his floor is lower than the others, but they’re also not paying 60-75M that these COF upgrades command.
Yeah I get the hopeful upside of Kelenic…but why not just keep Marco as a 5th/6th starter? Paying him anyways and I doubt anyone standing in line to trade for a pitcher after 2 down years and coming off surgery. Of course I say that with the assumption we don’t land a high-end starter which hopefully AA can do.
Respectfully, we haven’t seen what other teams are offering and this win-now team isn’t settling for someone that may not even make the postseason roster, let alone be in there for G1-G3. His presence could do more harm on this roster (blocking AJSS, Ynoa, Anderson, Waldrep, etc.) than good.
Kelenic had a hot april and went back to his really poor play. Going to the braves maybe will get him better pitches and you can get a little more out of him. Gonzalez had regressed and missed a lot of time over the last 4 years. Pair that with the mariners having 6 other better options at SP and Evan White contract was terrible. From Seattle perspective i hope they use the free money on something that helps more. I think it was smart of Seattle side to trade a average outfielder to get out of the money and get a nice prospect. Hopefully the braves can get more out of him.
I don’t see anything wrong with the deal. If kelenic does better than Rosario it’s a win-win. The money owed to Evan white is just additional to get Kelenic. If we part with Gonzalez then we have a potential decent outfielder for around 16M a year.
I get where you are coming from homer, but think of it this way.
Get some other team to pay down half of what we owe him, which would be $4m, and possibly get some lesser prospect or maybe even a bad salary back that helps us in some way. Then just let Winans (who I think only has one option left), or one of our other AAAA pitchers to fill in at MLB minimum.
It’s not enough to get under the second threshold, but maybe we make another move or two to get there, and if not, it still really doesn’t make sense when we need to get these younger arms some real MLB experience to determine future.
@braveshomer He is a left handed pitcher under age 50. Someone will want him. Braves only care about making playoffs. A 5 era starter has no value to them. Unless they are confident they can get him into the low 4s and that he will be healthy he isn’t for them.
@yourdreamGM I wouldn’t mind if the Pirates grab him. The Bucs need 3 starters and the Bucs have the payroll space to take the whole salary and try to get a lottery ticket type prospect from the Braves in exchange for someone like Tsung Che Cheng or Kyle Nicholas.
@jimmyz Seems ideal for Pittsburgh and PNC. I think they will be interested and would take on the full 7.75m or whatever it is.
@YourDreamGM The Braves don’t care about making the playoffs, though.
They know they’re making the playoffs. What they care about is winning another World Series, and certainly getting to the 2024 World Series. If they’re not shuffling about in order to add one ace or two extraordinary bullpen arms, they’re fools.
And they’re not fools.
I find it highly doubtful that even a team like the Braves takes making the playoffs for granted.
You can always find someone willing to take a shot on a guy and with Braves owing him about 7.5 million next year shouldn’t be hard to find a team wanting a veteran who could eat innings. I am sure this is far from last move Braves make. AA trying to get the best 26 he can for us. We only get to see the moves made we don’t get to see the moves they tried. I mean look at the report with Soto to the Yankees. Padres crazy to think they will get 7 players for a guy in final year of deal.
Soto is worth 7 players. You’re crazy not to believe that the Padres can get whatever they want for Soto. If a team trades for him they are either going to negotiate a contract to keep him or persuade him to sign observing the rest of the team and comradery. He is worth a haul. He walks and gets on base a ton, and hits Homer’s and rbi. His downfall is his defense is not in the top tier but it’s kind of okay.
He turned down a 400M deal from WSH….so unless a team has that they want to devote to him, why would they give up the kind of package to get him? Giving up prospects AND not getting a discount (knowing he will only extend for an overpay, especially on a new team).
that is assuming all of Gonzalez’ contract is dead money. It is not. Is he worth 12.5m, not really. Is he an inning eater with no upside – that is basically the Kyle Gibsons, Jordan Lyles, ect. of the worth. Those guys still regularly get 8-12m 1 year deals from teams that need a guy who they can pencil in for 180 innings.. Marco has a few more question marks, but the Fredde rumors (2 years 10m total, so 5 per) also would be a floor of a guy with more question marks (never been good in the bigs, but a monster in KBO last year)
So i think we can reasonably say Marco would be worth 5-10m, so he really is only a few million worth of dead money. The Braves do not really need that sort of guy, but there is likely a team willing to take the contract (since they need a guy like this) in exchange for FV 45 prospect (organization #20-30 for the most part) or if the Braves just eat a few million to get a team to take the rest (marco and 4m for a bucket of balls type of trade) which makes the sunk cost of the trade not 30m, but closer to 22m (and 2 years of pre Arb 2 WAR player is worth more than that)
12.5 mil. He is not cheap, and realistically only a 7-8m guy right now. You likely need a sweetener (or eat some money) to move him, but if it puts you below the luxury tax, eating 4m may save you more than that.
Sometimes it’s not always about money. Maybe he saw the writing on the wall that Washington was rebuilding and decided he didn’t want to spend several years moving back up the standings. So, my thoughts are he can be had for somewhere around that or 350M. I know he had reservations about Washington with them flipping the roster upside down. He probably got the feeling they weren’t going to be competitive for another 5 or so years. I think he doesn’t stay with the Padres, but I do believe that whoever he is traded to will sign him. Sounds like there are some issues internally between the players and I can imagine that not boding well for Soto. The new manager is awesome and I was pissed when the cardinals fired him. But I feel the clubhouse is toxic somewhere and he knows it, and doesn’t want to work around that.
A legitimate outfielder is going to cost a ton. We took on a guy that could turn out to be decent who is young, cheap and has potential. If we went after other free agents they would likely cost upwards of 20-25M per year. Look at what we are payin Ozuna. We got this kid for nothing and took on Evan white and Marco Gonzalez that can be flipped to another team and maybe we take on like 2M of that deal. So we take on 20M for a young and controllable outfielder.
You took on a guy who could turn out to be decent and paid more than $20 million for him. Seems like a weird gamble to me, but it ain’t my money. It’s a cutesy deal that might eventually be like rearranging the furniture a bit. Lots of activity will really little gain.
I need to see what the Braves opening day roster looks like before I make any judgements on this trade. If they can move Gonzales, I like it. If not, I’d have rather they just paid the freight for a FA LF.
I do NOT want to see Gonzales eating any innings, though. Those innings, first and foremost, should be given to a pitcher that contributes to winning. If they somehow can’t find that, those innings would be better given to a young SP for the experience.
I trust Alex, but seeing this article on here also makes me feel a lot better about the trade. There was a very small part of me fearing Gonzalez might have been the rotation plan.
So what if Gonzalez WAS the plan for some starts? You think he isn’t serviceable? He’s not great, that doesn’t mean he couldn’t contribute in some way. If your trust in Alex isn’t all the way maxed already, then you’ve got your head in the clouds.
No, I don’t think he’s “serviceable”. I say that fully recognizing you don’t get five aces, and a rotation can’t be all all-stars. Find me the thing though that you’d point to and say he could be serviceable.
Michael Tonkin. Jesse Chavez. Josh Tomlin. Tyler Matzek are all players you couldve looked at on paper and said that they weren’t serviceable. Now I’m not too fond of the idea of Marco making more than 5 starts, but in the short term, he might make the most sense eating innings in spot starts or in long relief. I’m just saying, it’s entirely possible he could go 70-100 innings and to suggest he is a make or break acquisition for your confidence in AA is a bit too much.
Oh, I’m not suggesting it’s a make or break situation for my confidence in Alex. I trust him. Even the best GMs can make the occasional misstep, though- and I don’t know this is it. That’s why I’m reserving judgement until I see what else he does.
I believe he wanted Kelenic, and taking Marco was clearly part of the price.
Plan or not, just being honest, I like this trade far less if Marco is making starts in a Braves uniform. What they gave up for Kowar is part of this price, too. But we’ll see.
Obvious from the second the trade was announced. He’s not nearly good enough to make their rotation. They’ll give him away if someone takes the salary
Half his salary is probably an overpay at this point. No shade towards Gonzo, really good pitcher in the past. I think it’s safe to say that 99% of Braves fan were hoping a flip was always in AA’s master plan.
Gonzalez will be flipped to White Sox along with 2 prospects for Cease. Braves paying half of Gonzalez $$$$. It’s a classic Sox move
I was thinking Royals. They take any warm body that showed they could pitch at some point in the past.
that would actually make some sense; maybe not that exact trade, but flipping him with the prospects for something else- where Marco has value to the rebuilding club- since even bad teams need guys who can soak up the innings.
I also do not think he contract is that bad. I would put him on par with the Lyles and Kyle Gibson types, and those guys get 8-10 (i think gibson was 10 last year and lyles was 8)- as flawed inning eaters who will throw 160-180 innings with a good chance of keeping their ERA under 5. Marco has a tad more risk than those 2, and a tad more upside.
They will find someone to take him at a $4M hit to eat innings, so that his 2024 salary will be split evenly between the Mariners, Braves, and the third team (which will almost certainly be a 90-95 loss team) where he actually pitches.
20 starts, 85 innings, enjoy retirement.
That’s got Oakland A’s written all over it!
I think there is upside for more. I would guess 150 innings of 4.95 ERA over 30 starts; and a W-L of 7-13 on a bad team.
Then 50/50 he chooses to sign the following year for 7-8m on a 1 year deal, or hang them up
Not tradeable unless mariners covering most of salary lol
Somebody missed the trade yesterday.
Do we know how much cash SEA sent over? I imagine some but not much considering they got the #7 prospect (Phillips) in addition to Kowar.
Exactly lol I guess RyanD knows the financials
Yeah I’ve been looking all over for what cash was coming to ATL.
I saw $5 mill at one point. Unverified tho
It was said that cash considerations were going from Seattle to Atlanta, so I assume it’s either for White or Gonzalez… either way, Gonzalez’s salary for 1 season isn’t crazy. He wasn’t good last year, but he was solid in years prior.
Not 10p% but I’ve heard 7 million
Per @ryandivish, per AP number is $4.5
So $24.5 of a salary dump an Kelenic for Kowar and Phillips
$4.5m the article says was reported
4.5 mil after aug 1
They always update and flesh out the articles and new info comes out so I’d wager many of the earlier comments were prior to the number being reported.
Idk bout that. Seems like Gonzales costs about 8 mil rn to an acquiring team if the braves don’t eat any of it. For a one year vet innings eater that is comparable if not a bit of a discount compared to fa options. If the braves don’t ask for more than depth guys or fringe prospects in return, I could easily see a rebuilding team making that deal.
Marco is injured though too
In other words, there was a trade structure that led to last night’s trade.
I’m glad to hear that!
Cease!
Twins.
Any guesses?
Lots of teams should have interest depending on his medicals. Any team that likes cheaps arms and thinks they can improve them. Giants Pirates Brewers Rays Red Sox come to mind. Or just cheap teams looking for a arm KC Las Vegas
Kelenic, Gonzales, Grissom, Smith Shawver for Soto + Cronenworth coming right up!
Where Exactlly would cronenworth play? No position for him unless your able to trade ozuna and alternate dh with someone
Super utility. He can play 1B/2B/3B all relatively well, and he isn’t a good at SS, but you could get by with him in a pinch if necessary. At this point, Cronenworth has shown he’s not really a good regular, but I could see him learning the corner OF spots and adding more versatility to his resume.
The Braves infield plays almost every game. They aren’t going to waste a roster spot on a “super utility” guy that can’t play shortstop.
@Smacky – exactly — they just traded away 2 potential decent candidates that could do that: Nicky Lopez, Shewmake.
Like, Culbertson was with them for a month or two and he got into one game for one at bat or something like that. He’s a super utility guy that’s not good enough to play shortstop as we unfortunately saw the year Dansby was hurt and they ended up losing to the Dodgers.
Wishfull!
Soto is worth more than that!
1 Year of Soto isn’t worth that. Now, it may take a package like that to get him, but that’s because there are many teams bidding for him.
thats waaaaayyyy to low. . According to a mets gm here on the boards he is worth “LuisAngel Acuna, Parada, Alex Ramirez, Mike Vasil, and David Peterson for 1 year of Soto.”
Throw in Cronenworth and you might have to empty the entire farm.
I think when it all pans out, you will find Soto doesn’t bring nearly as much as being reported. His salary trims down the list of suitors to a handful. His pending free agency probably causes those handful to not want to overpay without and extension pretty much locked down. Then you have to understand that the few teams that are left simply don’t have the prospect capital or aren’t as willing to part with it.
He will get less than most would think. Cease might actually get more simply because of the salary and control opening up the market to far more teams.
EDIT – Forgot to mention the facts that the Padres almost have to move him, as well as the fact it has already been reported that two of the few teams who can handle all of the above are already stating they will be out unless the asking price comes way down.
Evan White will probably be outrighted before spring, gets that contract off the payroll.
Am I missing something? He still has 2 years an at least $17 million guaranteed. Pretty sure that’s on payroll next 2 years regardless.
Correct
Even with that, he could still get outrighted rather than take AB’s away from useful prospects in the minors. That’s especially true with the thinner MiLB tiers, since MLB res-structured them.
That being said, the Braves have precious little depth in the minors as far as position players go, so they will likely keep him unless they can dump his salary off with a couple of decent prospects just to get rid of the salary. That is similar to what they will do with Marco, but Marco is useful enough that the Braves should only have to include some of the money and might still get a prospect back. I think the Braves will have to add prospects to get rid of Evans. Sort of how the Braves acquired Touki Toussaint all those years ago when the DBacks just wanted to dump Bronson Arroyo’s salary. Question is, what prospects will the Braves have to include to get someone to take Evans salary off their books.
Though the Braves are not getting a remotely significant prospect back even if they eat all of the 12.25m they owe Gonzalez. He’s worth around $2-5m at this point. That’s not even a typical 45 FV prospect.
Marco is injured and got surgery in late August, so that will impact whatever prospect return you are expecting.
Even if he’s outrighted, they have to pay him per his contract.
It doesn’t count against the luxury tax calculation, so while they will still have to pay him he won’t hurt their big league payroll.
Red Sox did something similar with Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig.
it does count because they closed that loophole years ago Rusney was the last to to fall in that group.
That’s not true. Still counts on lux tax.
The only way to absolve yourself is put them on waivers and hope another team claims them – like the Angels did last season.
No surprise. They’ll eat some more of the money owed and some team will take him.
He pitched in Colorado in HS. They can use an arm.
Marco in Coors would be a DISASTER
Tbh Marco anywhere probably is a disaster.
Cal Quantrill is another pitch to contact arm that they just added. Colorado doesn’t follow typical logic. I think for a couple million bucks—they might just do it.
Col just needs innings, and lefties generally do OK, much better than righties with a HR habit.
AA taking over Lanny Poffo’s moniker.
He going to start throwing frisbees pre-game?
“Leaping” Alex Anthopoulos
“The Genius” was a more memorable gimmick…
$12,250,000 guaranteed deal for 2024. Market is limited.
7m and braves can eat more.
Flip, Flip, Flipadelphia
Welcome to the White Sox!
I’m guessing the White Sox are one of the last teams that will add a $12M pitcher/player to their roster.
Absolutely no one is going to take him for the full balance of money owed. I’m thinking it gets paid down to $3-4 MM and you might find a team to absorb it.
At that point, yes, the Braves could give him away.
Unlees Braves taken $6 million in Cease trade. Fans cab bet they’re last $ the Sox gets raked over on a Cease deal
Marco is being traded for Polo. I mean Soto.
Royals. KC and Atlanta have been frequent trade partners, and Royals need arms badly
No, AJ that’s not your guy.
I would take him in Pittsburgh what is Atlanta attaching for us to eat 12 million
Nothing eating half the salary
LOL pittsburgh doesnt eat money in trades.
Pittsburgh isn’t eating half the salary don’t understand how you read that in that way
$12 million Seattle eats 1/3 Braves 1/3 Pirates pay 1/3 because he will be on their roster
No but they retained almost 6 million last season on rich hill. They are not getting prime free agents
Marco and kelenic straight up for cease. Sox get the new ace of their staff and a long term OF solution. Sox should pay all salaries involved and bow to AA
Who plays LF then? Grissom?
My comment was very tounge in cheek although i do think a pre arb kelenic would help facilitate a cease trade. Maybe something like kelenic, ajss, another mid tier prospect and a lottery ticket. Im sure AA had talked to Getz and knows what he’s looking to get for cease
Should’ve saved Evan White for that deal. Would’ve sealed it right there! ROFLOL!
Pirates!
“Ultimately, a left forearm strain ended his season in late May.”
Is “Marco Gonzalez” Spanish for “Tommy John?”
Tomas Juan
Tyler O’Neill for Marco Gonzalez 2.0.
Man, what a journey it’s been since that deal
Keep him or trade him and replenish the farm with a couple of A or AA kids if they can. He’s a decent 4 or 5 or long guy. The Braves. As Dean Vernon Wormer said “I hate those guys.”
No replenishing will come. They’ll move him to save a little bit of cash if they can find a partner. Seattle ate some cash but he’s worthless at anywhere close to his current $.
You can do what you want to with us, but we’re not going to sit here and listen to you bad mouth the United States of America.
MARCO
polo
I think he would be a perfectly fine 5th starter even at 10 mil. The article is right, prob a bit high and honestly I don’t think he’s gonna maintain any of his historical or essentially be good enough to wear a Braves uniform. I also don’t see many teams lining up to get him unless we still eat some of his salary lol. So kinda interesting to see how this all plays out
Marco to the Pirates
Redbirds got the market cornered on overpaid SOLID!!! #5 starters. Strike quick, strike hard MoTie.
Oh God, he’s coming to Baltimore.
Lol i think that Cole Irvin is enough. Feel pretty good about staying away from this disaster.
Kyle Gibson replacement.
O’s won’t get Gonzales. Gonzales is an Irvin 2.0. Flyball lefties with low velo that need pristine control to be effective.
Gibson was a GB tossing right hander. Something the rotation didn’t have last year. This would just be a clone of an ineffective pitcher that throws even slower.
Jon Paul Morosi says the Braves are still in conversations with Ohtani. That would be insane. They’d need to trade Marco, White and Ozuna to make it even remotely possible.
Maybe Raisel as well.
Hate it when they bury the lead. Took like 4 paragraphs before they said he was a lefty.
Surprise is one of the last effective elements remaining in his pitch arsenal.
Oh, no. Will Gonzales be part of an Atlanta package being sent to the White Sox for Dylan Cease? Just what the Sox don’t need—a 32-year-old soft-toss innings eater. Please, no. Please.
If he’s included then it’s going to Give the White Sox better prospects in the deal. That’s a negative value player.
Book on it
Paging Chris Getz to the woodshed…
Lmbo
I still cannot believe ATL paid approximately $24M and their 2022 2nd rounder for essentially Kelenic to replace Rosario. It only makes sense if they somehow get out of the commitment to Marco. Bravo to the M’s, who pick up one of the highest ceiling under 20 yo pitchers to free up their payroll.
Marco will probably be an option only for losing teams in cavernous stadiums…basically Oakland or KC. It’ll probably cost ATL another mid-tier prospect to get either to take on the $7.5 left on Marco’s contract. ATL built to win now, so any prospects under top three are expendable.
It seems like you’re undervaluing Kelenic and overvaluing Rosario, who was below average defensively and only average offensively (per wRC+, OPS+) in a historic line-up. We haven’t seen what they can spin Marco for, but I wouldn’t doubt it’s for something useful, though obtaining a pre-arb replacement for Rosario is already a win. Guy isn’t a FA until 2029 — and they obtained him for essentailly $24.5M (plus what they get for Marco). Other teams value ATL prospects b/c of their ability to scout and develop at top level (Strider, Elder, Harris, etc.).
I just question the cost for Kelenic. Cole Phillips is a valuable piece, although not to a contender, and $24M negates the value of 5 years of control. However, I think he could become a decent platoon LF on a team with a great clubhouse, of which ATL is one of those teams. Perhaps he will buy-in and reach his potential in the right environment, but it wasn’t happening in Seattle.
ATL is targeting specific pieces that can be leveraged in the post season (Bummer, Kelenic, Lopez). AA is trying to win now. Marco definitely not someone who fits in that puzzle.
I get it, but even if he’s not reaching his absurd potential in a comfortable environment like ATL, he can still be very productive and an upgrade. If 1 WAR is ~8M AAV on the FA market (approximately, I believe it’s gone up…) then why wouldn’t a 2-bWAR player obtained for multiple years (pre-arb) not be worth $24.5M (plus whatever they get in return for Marco)?
Right, it only makes sense if they somehow shed Marco’s salary. They must have four or five better options at league min for the fifth spot in the rotation rather than a suspect Marco. Kelenic’s value is that he precisely matches their need at a 4 year cost certainty.
Highest ceiling and one of the lowest floors. So far, only the floor has been visible.
It’s ENTIRELY possible the Braves did this to put together a package for one of the TOR starters available on the trade market.
Entirely.
Elder also throws batting practice, trade ’em both.
Weird deal for the Braves. They took a salary dump of $20MM plus to get Kelenic. They’ll probably get a few million of that back by moving Marco, but not all unless they attach a legit prospect. Basically, the Braves are believers in Kelenic, but his production last year was limited to April. Still can’t hit a pitch with a bend.
I remember a time a few years back over half the professing Braves fans called for trading Riley at a low point of his value. Right before he broke out and nobody seems to remember that anymore. I can see Kelenic breaking out in Atlanta with the deep lineup. Either that or he headlines another trade. I personally doubt the Braves are getting Soto or Ohtani though. Braves need to extend Fried or trade for a real ace that actually still throws over 95 mph.
If he fails in Atlanta, he won’t be the headliner of any trade in the future. Throw in, maybe. Waiver claim, more likely.
@LordD99 Not weird at all if you consider what the Braves really want, which is either a TOR guy they’ll want to make postseason starts, or one, preferably two bullpen guys they’ll want taking innings in the postseason, but probably the TOR.
The Braves don’t care about winning 105 versus 104 games in 2024—they care exclusively about getting to (and winning) the 2024 World Series.
Kelenic would be a terrific part of the package in trade for someone’s ace.
Lots of “scammering” going on.
More like :”Slamming” scammering, but Gonzaelz going to White Sox with Braves keeping at minimum 1/2 his salary & 2 mid to low/high level prospect for Cease. Book it Danno
See…it is a real word!
When Kelenic has a 138 OPS+ in July people will understand the trade
Hopefully the Mets are all over Gonzales
So, Braves trades for a Triple-A OFer, a bad SP and an aging 1B? And now they want to trade that bad SP? What a waste.
That trade will be partly going to White Sox for a CEASE deal with Braves keeping at least 1/2 of Gonzalez money. This is a par-to-course Sox move
@NewOrleansSaintsFan
Are the Sox in the market for a bad SP? Cease isn’t going to the Braves.
Sox in market for 3 bad SP. Cease definately going to Braves or nowhere
If Kelenic can produce at least 2WAR per year, that’s essentially league average. The Braves payroll will be going up as players get into the later years of their contracts. Having a decent bargain basement LF will help deal with the payroll crunch.
Kelenic hasn’t prodeced 2War since he’d been draftes combined
He produced 2 WAR in 2023.
Where? Japan? I actually thought he was out of baseba
thank god my team’s GM has a better idea of what’s going on leaguewide than you do, I suppose
Most second-division teams would take Marco if they only have to pay him $3M-$4M. That’s not unreasonable. The Braves would need to pay about $4M-$5M and pass along the Mariners money.
It is worth noting that BR has a projected ERA for Gonzalez that is lower than Gibson or Lynn, who cost the Cards real money. I don’t think it is unreasonable for a contender to pick him up cheaply as a #5 SP.
Either that or a team looking for a stop gap guy. Someone who could be a borderline contender but is worried about a depth piece such as guy coming back from injury or unproven young guy.
I don’t think a contender would be in on him. I think the Rockies or the like to eat up some innings may.
I would assume the M’s included him because he wasn’t dumpable on his own. I think the Braves are going to have to eat at least half of that cash to facilitate.
BrianStrowman9
I don’t think a contender would be in on him.
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It depends on how they want to structure their off-season budget. A team like SD really needs three SPs. If they signed two of YY, Snell, Monty, etc., and spent $4M on Gonzalez to stay on some type of budget, I don’t think that would be unreasonable.
I like Miley more than Gonzalez, but if the RS signed YY for $250M/10, and the budget offset for that was a $8.5M Miley, or a $4M Gonzalez, I could live with that.
I get it. I don’t think Gonzalez has much to offer though. I think it’s more likely than not that you’re just burning $4MM and are going to wind up pitching your AAA depth starter over him at some point. His peripherals are ugly. He needs his control to be absolutely pristine. He’s not a GB pitcher either so maybe Petco would be ok. But any ballpark conducive to the HR is ugly.
I proposed Colorado because they seem to not follow trends and like to acquire guys who have been good in the past. That & their rotation only has about 3 big league caliber starters right now.
Lots to like. If they like his medicals I can see a contender going after him. If Giants Pirates Red Sox Brewers etc are considered contenders. Can See Dodgers Rays etc being interested..
Braves out here making trades to just to make them.
The question is, are the Braves stronger now than they were on 11/2? I’d argue that they are.
I’d argue no, while at the same time arguing that they are better off over the next four years. I think the floor for Kelenic is probably 2023, which won’t hurt them, and it could be higher.
They probably just wanted Kelenic. M’s dumped their trash now braves need to do same.
This is a great deal for the Braves. They took on kelenic for almost nothing. Sure we took on 26M if the 4M is correct. We got Kelenic for cheap and if we part with Gonzalez we are left with a guy even if we took on 2M of Gonzalez which is 16M for a decent outfielder. We could release Evan White and we got a young controllable outfielder who could do something decent for 16M and then by the time Evan falls off we have kelenic for around 15M annually and hes only 26. I like this deal.
The Braves gave up Cole Phillips & indirectly Kyle Wright (Kowar) also.
I don’t think Marco is going to be so easy to dump. If he was—then why did Seattle include him in the deal? I think they’ll need to eat a substantial portion of his salary to get him out.
But I think it’s a fine gamble that ATL made. Kelenic has substantial potential to be a solid everyday LF
Oh they’ll have to cover basically all of his salary.
Generals gathered in their masses
Just like witches at black masses
At the Winter Meeting
If the Braves throw in another $2 million or thereabouts, I’m sure the White Sox will take Marco Gonzales. Seattle frees up $7.5 million, Atlanta frees up about $5 million, and the White Sox get a back-end starter at half price.
Like the Mike Hampton odyssey on a much smaller scale.