The Blue Jays announced that the club has re-signed center fielder Kevin Kiermaier on a one-year deal Thursday evening. The Equity Baseball client is reportedly guaranteed $10.5MM, while the deal contains additional incentives.
Kiermaier, 34 in April, was a 31st-round pick by the Rays in the 2010 draft and quickly proved to be one of the savvier late-round picks in recent memory. After making his big league debut in a one-game cup of coffee during the 2013 season, Kiermaier stepped into the club’s everyday center field role in early 2014 and remained in that role for nine seasons where he established himself as a generational defender while slashing a respectable .248/.308/.408 during his time with the Rays. He departed the club to join the Blue Jays on a one-year deal last offseason that went very well for both sides. The veteran posted a 104 wRC+ while playing in 129 games, just the third time in his career he eclipsed 120 games in a season.
As a superlative defender in center who bats left-handed and slashed a respectable .260/.321/.431 against right-handed pitching last year, Kiermaier still makes some sense for a Jays club that sports few left-handed bats and had a vacancy in the outfield. That being said, the club has been frequently tied to Cody Bellinger to this point in the offseason and, with a strong center field defender in Daulton Varsho still on the roster, had generally been expected to pursue a more offensively oriented addition to their lineup this winter. That makes the club’s reunion with Kiermaier something of a surprise.
With that said, Kiermaier is certainly a quality player in his own right; his decent offense and strong defense earned him the #31 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a two-year, $26MM deal. That projection ended up coming in high by a year and more than $15MM. If the Blue Jays evaluated Kiermaier similarly, they may have felt that reuniting with the veteran at a relative discount was valuable enough to outweigh concerns about the club’s overall offensive production in the outfield, which combined to post a 99 wRC+ last year good for just 20th in the majors. Only the Marlins received less production from their outfield unit than Toronto among playoff teams in 2023.
It must also be noted that the return of Kiermaier needn’t necessarily preclude the club from adding Bellinger or another impact bat to the outfield mix. Talented as Varsho is, the 27-year-old is coming off an abysmal season at the plate where he slashed just .220/.285/.389 in 158 games, and even his strongest season with Arizona saw him post a wRC+ of just 107. That sort of production falls short of the typical everyday left fielder, and it would certainly be defensible for the Blue Jays to move Varsho into a part-time role backing up veterans Kiermaier and George Springer if it meant the addition of an impact bat to the club’s lineup. If the club chooses to go that route, the addition of a bat-first player such as Jorge Soler to the outfield mix could still make plenty of sense.
When discussing Bellinger specifically, the 28-year-old’s experience at first base both in 2023 and throughout his career could also help the Blue Jays fit him into their positional mix if they choose to do so. It’s at least reasonable to imagine a scenario where the club adds Bellinger and utilizes him both in the outfield and also at first base, where he could spell Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and allow the club’s franchise first baseman to spend more time at DH. Roster Resource projects the Blue Jays for a payroll of $213MM in 2024 following the addition of Kiermaier, a figure that’s essentially identical to their $214MM payroll last season. With that being said, the club surely has room for further additions given their reported pursuits of pricey superstars such as Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in free agency as well as Juan Soto via trade.
While that remaining space in the budget could certainly be used to further shore up the outfield, it’s possible the club would prefer to turn its attention toward the infield. The departures of Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield in free agency leave the Blue Jays without established, surefire starters at either second or third base. While youngster Davis Schneider has shown promise and the likes of Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal provide depth at both positions, adding at least one infielder to the mix appears to be a likely top priority for the club going forward this offseason.
In the meantime, the Blue Jays have shored up an area of weakness on the roster by bringing back a four-time Gold Glover at a premium defensive position. Kiermaier’s quality work in 2023 played a major role in Toronto’s 3.8 fWAR in center field tying with Boston for the eight-most production in baseball at the position, and he should provide the club with similar production next season if he can remain healthy headed into his age-34 campaign.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Blue Jays and Kiermiaer were nearing agreement on a one-year deal in the $10MM range. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported that the sides had an agreement on a $10.5MM guarantee with incentives.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
RIP Bellinger lol
Pretty much. Unless Varsho miraculously got traded
My son just told me he traded Varsho to Baltimore on The Show for Jackson Holliday…and SWEARS he didn’t have trade decline turned off. It, therefore, must be possible.
Best source I’ve seen so far
Not necessarily. Bellinger could still sign, Springer gets extra days at DH and the Jays run out the best defensive outfield again.
Springer doesn’t hit good enough to DH.
Sorry to see this get done as KK tortures the Red Sox. Was hoping he’d take that Korean spot that opened up last week when SD signed Lee…
I think the more important thing is he will also do nothing for Toronto’s offence. I see the Sox and Toronto lined up right now for the bottom two spots in the East and would bet on the Sox to pass them. Last year he Kiermaier had his best offensive year since 2017 and it wasn’t much. I’d bet against him this year. I see this as Toronto pretty much throwing in the towel.
He’s a number 9 hitter, whose value is in his run prevention.
Where are they hitting Varsho?
Probably 7th, cause he can still hit 20 to 30 homers and has the potential to be a much better hitter based on past performance
Best. KK was actually healthy in 23. The man plays great defense and saves many pitches from being thrown. Don’t overlook his overall value
Toronto’s Starting Pitching alone should hold there own. There defence is elite in the outfield. Time for a big bat and some third baseman. Red Sox starting pitching doesn’t look anywhere near Toronto’s. Line up is close. Bullpen could be one of the best. They need hitting more importantly hitting with runners in scoring position. Teo, JD Martinez, Solier, anyone who hits 30 bombs a year.
@Whyme. The average NL dh has an OPS of .689. The average AL dh has an OPS of .701. Springer would be fine as a dh
Correction: AL DH has an average OPS of .713
Varsho, Keirmaier and Springer was the best defensive outfield last year. Bellinger would be needed for his left hand bay although if a team is willing to pay $200 million for him I would pass.
He also played quite a bit at first last year so there is ab’s to be had even if everyone stays healthy.
My question is this:
Has Boras priced Bellinger out of a job?
Boras has pulled some rabbits out of his hat before but the whole Jake Arrieta contract looms large in my memory.
I always thought Bellinger would best be served signing a 7 year contract with an opt out after two years. If he produces like he did last year for two more years he could easily be looking at a 250 million dollar deal if not closer to 300.
You might wanna look at Bellinger’s numbers last year. He had a .525 SLG and .434 xSLG…. He has basically zero chance to repeat last year. He should absolutely be trying to maximize his contract this offseason cause his value will never be this high again
Bellinger did exactly what a hitter should do all last season, situationally hit.
Bellingers exit velocity is skewed because his contact oriented two strike approach vs little it rip like Matt Chapman. He slugged when he strikes to give, if you actually watched Cody play last year as opposed to just looking at stats you’d have a better idea.
This is where stats lie, just like in pitching. Walks do not kill you, who you walk kills you. What your exit velocity and slugging is with two strikes doesn’t matter.
It’s highly likely if he continues his same approach he will meet similar results.
Lol so a 90 point gap in expected slugging can be attributed to his approach? Sure….. if that was actually true then his actual slugging would still match his expected slugging. I’m sorry but your comment makes zero sense. He got lucky. That is a fact
Cool story. Let’s rehash this at the end of 2024 and see who’s right.
A 4 win CFer turning 30 probably wouldn’t get Nimmo’s deal.
it’s easy to look at a statcast page and make the conclusion that he’s due for some regression and there’s some truth in that. But the exit velo panic is extremely overblown considering players like semien and bregman have had success with similar batted ball profiles. People have just been hating on belli to lower his market value and because of his struggles the past few years
And expected slugging is formulated using launch angle and exit velocity so yes, having a contact oriented two strike approach will lower your expected slugging percentage.
Bellingers launch angle last year closely reflected his MVP years launch angle and Bellinger has great sprint speed and base running value, so, his lower expected slugging only has to do with his lower exit velocity which as discussed, was skewed because he put 178 balls in play with two strikes using a contact oriented two strike approach.
You should probably know how things are formulated before using them as a basis for your argument…. That’s a fact
Exit velocity is the new darling for people who want to sound smart but also fail to look at the entire picture.
It’s great to look at a player who is struggling, Juan Soto early last season, and see that he is still hitting the ball hard so he’s probably running into bad luck as long as the rest stays the same, the strike outs are similar, he’s walking at a similar pace etc.
When you look at Bellinger, who’s model changed with two strikes, the argument of exit velocity goes out the window.
Like I said before, it’s like walks. If you’re walking Bryce Harper, that’s fine. But if you’re walking Patrick Wisdom, that isn’t fine.
I agree 100%, being able to look at a statcast profile does not make you a fortune teller or someone who can define the future. Expected stats aren’t always accurate, people have been waiting for a Chapman breakout for years simply because he hits the ball hard, while there is credibility with these stats sometimes “underlying metrics” can be surface level too,
Bregman and Semien are extreme pull hitters in the air. Bellinger uses the big part of the park in the air and pulls his ground balls. I don’t trust that profile. It’s also easier to believe in the Semien and Bregman profiles since they have a track record of succeeding with that profile whereas Bellinger has only looked like this for one season.
The same Marcus Semien that had below league average offense in every single season in Oakland except one?
Bellinger is a pull hitter, he was one of the most extreme pull hitters in baseball prior to last year and he still pulled except when, broken record, he was going for more contact.
Of course it also makes perfect sense to play to the ballpark and Wrigley plays better gap to gap than pulling.
Lastly, pull hitters are going to put the ball on the ground on the pull side, because they are selling out for power.
It’s crazy how people are just trying to make up narratives.
It’s been quite a few years since Semien was in Oakland. Semien broke out in ‘19 but nobody trusted him when he hit free agency, hence the pillow contract with Toronto.
Is it making up narratives to ask questions and wonder how trustworthy a performance is when it is so different than what that player has been before and the results aren’t supported by many of the predictive metrics most people use? I feel like pretending you know the sure answers to those questions is more of an example of making up narratives.
How high is the value of an unsigned player?
Teams literally have a department of analytics people to make this highlight. These workers are much cheaper than baseball players.
Dude you don’t even understand what you’re talking about while simultaneously trying to talk smack. The expected SLG is based on his batted balls correct? So if he had a different approach with 2 strikes how can you explain his 90 point gap in SLG and xSLG?? Your argument doesn’t even make sense?
Drasco is just making stuff up while pretending everyone else is lol and he doesn’t understand that Bellinger’s gap in SLG and xSLG shows he was incredibly lucky and that it has nothing to do with his “approach”. Nothing he’s saying makes any logical sense whatsoever.
You literally explain how Bellinger’s approach lowers his xSLG…. But then why doesn’t it lower his actual SLG??? I’m sorry dude you’re not making any sense whatsoever. You really tried though
Are you simple? Look up how expected slugging is factored and then get back to me because if you cannot put two and two together then you need to go back to elementary school and learn basic math. Obviously your critical thinking and comprehension is a lost cause.
I’m going to break it down for you really simple because I think basic math probably hurts your head.
If I take 10 at bats, and I tear the cover off the ball in three of them, let’s say 100 mph exit velo, strike out in 5 of them and put two more in play weakly at 80 mph velo. That’s an average exit velocity of 92 mph
Now if I take those same 10 at bats, hit 3 at 100 mph, 6 at 80 and only strike out once, that’s an 86 MPH velo.
So my expected slugging percentage is higher in the first scenario than the second… does it make sense now or shall do I need a crayon?
But you tried though… you really tried.
Dude you are beyond confused. If Bellinger’s approach was changing his xSLG why wouldn’t it change his actual SLG?? If it’s based on batted ball quality then how can you possibly explain a 90 point gap besides luck? The approach his nothing to do with it lol if that was the case then every single hitter who changes their approach with 2 strikes would automatically outperform their expected stats…. But that doesn’t happen…. Again you are beyond confused lol
Well strike outs don’t count towards exit velo so your entire premise is flawed lol
Can’t wait to hear your reasoning for why this only applies to Bellinger and isn’t a universal phenomenon…..
Not to mention, in your tiny sample size example the first hitter made hard contact with 60% of his batted balls. The second hitter made hard contact with 33% of his batted balls. Of course the xSLG will be higher for the first guy because over time he will slug more than the second guy barring luck. Thanks for proving my point
You are in fact a moron. Take your lollipop, go sit in the corner with the rest of the special kids and try not to eat the paste.
Lol figured. Can’t even answer simple rebuttals. Take a lap clown
to be fair, even if you take expected slug and exit velo as the “be all, end all” of projection stats you can see that belli’s avg exit velo increased month after month coming off of his knee injury in may. It reached it’s highest point in September. Even if you throw his results out the window and only look at his predictive stats you can see he reached above avg exit velos as the season went on.
That’s fine, that’s a much better argument than whatever nonsense drasco was spewing. Although it still doesn’t explain the massive gap between his SLG and xSLG
Yeah, his overall low exit velocities for the season were the main factor in his massive gap between SLG and xSLG. Even with the steady increase throughout the season, they were still below average as a whole which is why his expected numbers only peg him as a “slightly above average hitter”. The only thing is that Bellinger’s high sweet spot percentage and tendency to pull his fly balls allowed him to make the most of the balls he did hit relatively hard., hence contributing to inflated home run and double totals despite overall poor underlying metrics. These metrics fail to take into account the benefits of pulling the ball in the air frequently, which is why hitters like Vladdy consistently underperform what “he should be doing” because he isn’t making the most of his hard-hit balls and is only hitting them on the ground.
But really all Bellinger is doing to outperform his metrics is simply being efficient with his few hard-hit balls by pulling them in the air. A stark contrast to underperforming statcast darlings like vlad, teoscar and chapman. Is this sustainable? Only time will tell but because of comps like semien, Bregman and Paredes who consistently outperformed their metrics with similar approaches, I think it wouldn’t be crazy to see him do this for the foreseeable future. Fangraphs wrote an interesting article on this subject, it’s a great read:
blogs.fangraphs.com/for-bellinger-and-paredes-it-p…
Dodger might sign him again and defer it till 2041.
Thank goodness. Belli can play for anyone other than the jays.
Thank god, I thought this clown was going to end ^ on the Yankees.
Seriously, people are under the impression that Bellinger is the second coming of Ohtani or something. He was a good contact hitter, but not a good power hitter in 2023. The Jays don’t need another singles producer leaving the field after the cleanup hitter grounds out into double play.
I’m sorry how exactly was Bellinger not a good power hitter in 2023? He hit 29 doubles and 26 home runs in 130 games, that is a 32 home run and 36 double pace across 162 as well as 118 RBIs. I don’t know what you consider good power numbers but I would take that any time.
Hopefully this means Varsho is on his way out of town as part of a trade.
No chance
@phony ternandez
Unfortunately not.
yes because there is no way they can play on the same team.
checks notes… oh wait?
Easily. Springer and Vlad can share DH at bats with Bellinger gets starts in RF and 1B.
Despite “WAR”, he’s not that valuable. Would not garner a strong return. Jays need someone to teach him how to hit.
Ah, the “I have feelings about fielding” set. Never gets old.
Yes, stats like WAR that sum and integrate stats like BA, OBP, SLG et al… IT’S ABSURD!
Jack, it summed nothing. Clearly you did not look at said OBP or Slugging of Varsho. But hey, if your favourite team wants to give up top prospects for Varsho let’s have it.
Quite absurd. The number of confounding variables for each of those stats already make them suspect measures of a player’s true contributions on the field. Mashing them all together into one number just compounds the problem.
Varsho lead ALL OF MLB with 29 DRS in 2023. He was worth 3.9 WAR, #3 on the team (tied with Kiermaier).
Terry are you saying Varsho would command a hefty return in a trade? I say no. What say you?
Can you imagine a situation where your trading away a top10 prospect in all of baseball in gabriel moreno and a very decent power hitting outfielder in gurriel jr. For a defense first outfielder in varsho. Less then a calendar year later moreno showed hes has superstar potential and varsho might be a substitute 4th outfielder…. unbelievable how the management team screwed the jays and continue to acrew the jays over.
Never knew Gurriel was a power hitting outfielder, you don’t expect much power from a left fielder do you. Almost 2500 PA with under a hundred homers.
What people are saying is that the top player at a position means nothing. Varsho equals Judge and if the Jays acquired him, would fans berate the incident? Why not? Varsho is the top defensive player in the league and he saves hundreds of runs from crossing the plate. Judge merely hits with power every year and comparing runs scored to runs saved, Varsho is above and beyond Judge, but because he saves runs and isn’t hitting home runs, fans don’t care about the hundreds or thousands of pitches they save the pitchers each season, plus wear and tear. Would New York subject Cole to an extra 1,000 pitches or would they create a defensive outfield and infield defense so he throws the minimum each day. Fans that scream for offense only are handicapping their teams. Good pitching defeats good offense and great defense wins games. How many recognize that baseball needs both, offense, pitching and defense to win, not one player.
The question i have, and ive never seen it addressed even reasonably competently by the defence first crowd is this, if Varsho saved 29 runs last year as stated here, but drove in say 40 less runs than another LF, who had 0 DRS, isnt that 2nd LF more valuable bc he produced 11 more runs overall?? In my admitedly somewhat sheltered analytically minded brain, that makes sense though, so my question is arent there any outfielders who produced enough runs to offset those defensive capabilities or is this just a blind bluff by the defensive geniuses?
Ashley he does not. He had 312 putouts last year. Exactly how many of those would Gurriel have caught? Better yet, Varsho lost two balls in the sun resulting in runs last year. Would Gurriel have caught those balls?
Let’s say the answer is no. Gurriel outhit Varsho, and giving up Moreno on-top of that suggests Varsho’s D does not overcome the horrendous offensive performance.
If Varsho was being shopped the Jays would not get a return of a 3.9 WAR player with 3 seasons of control that you’d expect.
RGR, I like StatCast for this type of analysis because it’s pretty easy. They give a run value for batting, baserunning, and fielding. Add them all up. Varsho had a 12 Fielding run value, 3 baserunning run value, and -19 batting run value. That all adds up to -4. So he adds up to a below average player in terms of a the idea that a run prevented is equal to a run scored.
Varsho though produced the majority of his fielding value in CF despite playing much fewer innings there than in LF were he was merely okay. Before bringing Kiermaier back, it was clearer to see how he’d be an above average contributor as he’d have played more CF where his defensive value is maximized. If Kiermaier pushes Varsho back to LF, there’s a lot more pressure on him to produce with the bat.
Amusingly you are basically describing how WAR works
Did those 11 runs result in winning 11 more games? That’s why looking at numbers in a vacuum doesn’t tell the whole story. If the LF is teeing off on bad pitchers & those games were already in hand, I’d rather have the defensive value Varsho provides.
You’d rather have an offensive liability who hurt the team more with his lack of hitting ability than he did catching balls most OFs make. He hurt the Jays more than Gurriel could have had the trade not happened.
Also see your second comment relating to the trade and I’ll say this: at the time, Moreno needed to be dealt for an impactful player. When you have a Top 5 prospect and the #1 catching prospect you do not settle on a glove-first, bat rarely OF. You deal him for a middle of the order impact bat.
“Casuals” aren’t hating the trade. People who watch a lot of games who’ve seen this song and dance from this front office do. A huge L for the Jays with this trade. Varsho, if traded today, gets you nothing.
That’s a very detailed strawman. No one made this argument.
Unfortunately that’s a trade that the Jays will never be able to undo…. While still being reminded of it every yr Moreno continues to play the game
It’s funny how Jays casuals hate the trade b/c they’re sure Moreno will improve but won’t give Varsho the same leeway.
I’d be shocked if KK duplicates his career year of last year.
He could provide half the value he did last year and still be worth $10 mil
Yeah Kiermaier was an absolute steal last year. Looks like another great signing.
another?
They signed him last year…..worked out great……
His defense isn’t getting worse… offense is questionable but it always was.
Making the one year contract a pretty great decision, though it is worrisome if nobody else was offering him multiple years.
Is the defense really special enough to overcome the useless bat?
His bat is not useless and yes his defense is that good
Bat was much more useful than Varsho’s last year. Frankly, most years, Kevin’s bat is league average or better, which when combined with his stellar defense makes him one of the best centerfielders in the game.
Health is his only major issue and the Jays did a good job of load management last year.
He idolizes a known cheater! will another couple of perspectives on the value of a LEAGUE-average bat register?
kodion, who idolizes a known cheater, and who is the cheater?
etex –Gaylord Perry is his avatar.
I took the liberty of jumping to a conclusion
Obsess much?
lol, I thought he idolized Tatis or something
He’s a terrific defender with a bat that is at least in the vicinity of average, making him a very useful player.
And yet, and yet, they lost once again in the WC series in 2 straight! Not saying its his fault, it definitely wasnt, and he had a great season, but for a team that had no offensive skill whatsoever last year, this doesnt move the needle for me! There needs to be a lot more to come for me to get even slightly excited about this team
Not unreasonable, and expectation among hardcore Blue Jays fans is that this will lead to to several moves that may include trades and another FA signing or 3 to bump up the offensive power they lacked both in volume and with RISP in 2023.
Intangibles (unmeasurables?) for Kiermaier are that he was was well-liked and a leader in the clubhouse, was well-spoken and helpful with media (Bichette a quiet power presence when it comes to PR and Guerrero won’t talk English to media despite being born in Canada – Montreal).
KK was very well-liked by fanbase that had strongly disliked him as a Ray over the years (because he owned the outfield there)..
Response from baseball followers in Canada today was very positive I’d say, and not unexpected, as there were uncomfortably big holes in the Blue Jays line-up for 2024 and this fills a big one with a known quantity.
I favour a 4th OF signing that isn’t Bellinger but whose hitting is explosive, one who can take enough PAs and OF days to give the other three some managed time.
Bellinger would help the Blue Jays but he’s expensive — It’s the consensus among the fans I talk with that his agent Boras has likely been in long negotiations with the Blue Jays and the team is waiting for things to resolve at a lower price point than he’s reported to expect.
Jorge Soler may be the Blue Jays signing to follow Kiermaier. And Teoscar Hernandez despite some of numbers was a major force with bat for Blue Jays, and would be welcomed back by at least me — when he was in Jays’ line-up they did better. Plus he’s again a known quantity.
There’s fear among Jays’ fans that bringing back Chapman at 3B will give us a Groundhog Day experience (the movie) in 2024 but if not Chappie can Orelvis Martinez, either by himself or platooning with Addison Barger handle the hot corner? Both have power and low cost. Can Davis Schneider who broke long-standing MLB rookie records mid-season and some will say willed the Jays into the post-season handle 2B? The Blue Jays have other good prospects who can be traded for power — a recurring trade scenario not unlike the Soto trade is one that sends P Alek Manoah to Queens for Pete Alonso. Mets could use some salary relief and prospects, and Blue Jays could use Pete’s bat.
Big question across MLB is which dominoes moved or will move that will trigger more KK-like signings…
@Pingston “P Alek Manoah to Queens for Pete Alonso”
Cohen doesn’t need one-year salary relief, and the Mets don’t need a project in return for their main trade chip. They need the equivalent of a 55 FV prospect, at least,
Besides, if Manoah is a strong bet to return to form, why on Earth would the Jays deal him for one year of a 3 win 1Bman?
Pingston the Jays are not in a good position with their pitching depth to deal Manoah. A trade should be for a 3B. Although I have a feeling Jays are going to get Urshela and chase a DH when Springer should do the bulk of DH’ing.
As for a 4th OF it must be a RH bat. Jays now have two LH hitters playing OF.
RGR is right. At this time they do not have a better lineup and arguably 7-8-9 are all LH bats (arguably). So much for the lefty bat argument that did not help.
Now the Jays chase 2 bats with $10-mil less to use. Kiermaier at that price and one year is great – but not for how the Jays are currently assembled.
104 OPS+ bat is useless?
98 OPS+ for his career, which pairs nicely with great defense.
On a team that can hit, yes. Jays unfortunately cannot. They need another two bats.
On a team that cannot hit (exaggeration, notwithstanding being 11th ranked in OPS last season), a career average bat who hit at a slightly above average clip last season is a good piece to retain, especially when he helps to the level he does at run prevention.
The move is fine unless the Jays don’t land a bat or two. Jays showed in October against the mediocre Twins how good their bats were.
While I agree that the Jays still need a bat or two, a two game sample does not indicate that their bats are mediocre, IMO. Any team can go into a slump in a short series.
Twins are mediocre, not the Jays bats. If you were to truly break down the numbers, the ranking you gave does not paint a proper picture of how bad the offense was last year. Your argument suggests they had a good offense, thus you are contradicting yourself.
Which is it, they need bats or their offense is fine without said bats?
As a Jays fan, this is welcomed. Hopefully, whomever stole his bike last year will return it too.
Kiermaier is not quite on the Othani level. Sorry Canada.
He also cost 1/70th.
Or fives times as much, depending on your perspective.
1/46th*
$460 M is artificial number for Ohtani. Real number that may dicombobulate Dodgers and detroy their market value within a decade is $700 M — a helluva iceberg to have waiting for you….
Just say you don’t understand economics
Ohtani costs about $13M per predicted fWAR (assuming a 10-year contract with an AAV of $46.1M.) Kiermaier costs approximately $9.5M per predicted fWAR.
I like this idea.
And that it might point them away from Bellinger ….
Not a Blue Jays fan, but I agree this is good for them.
Bellinger had a good year, but there were tons of red flags in his advanced metrics. I wouldn’t want my team giving him a nine figure contract
I’d be fine with Bellinger around 100m, not so much 200-250m.
Geez rough move for a team that needs offense Varsho is much more valuable in CF
I hope this means Bellinger is the cubs top priority like it should’ve been from day 1 of FA able to sign where they wanted to go.
Nobody wants him. Cubs should wait him out until he realizes that he has no market
Belli clearly overestimating his market. He’s a 7yr, $140m guy, with risk, imo
I don’t care at this point. 3 minor league deal to this point is unacceptable from the Cubs FO. I knew they were never gonna get Ohtani and were a long shot getting Yoshi.
It’s not even January. Who cares what they do until the offseason is actually over
I do. Jed was given the okay by Tom who was told by his father spend what you need to improve the team.
Just because he hasn’t so far doesn’t mean he won’t. It’s December, relax.
“He’s a 7 yr 140M guy”…You are SO right, but Boras must have promised him 200M+ so He’s destined to still be unsigned when the MLB draft comes around and he can lose the qualifying offer albatross. Bellinger will be waiting a LONG time if he thinks he’s getting 200M+.
Whatever Kris Bryant got and let’s wrap it up today.
SPIN THE GLOVE!!!!!
SNIFF THE GLOVE!!!!
LOVE THE GLOVE!!! what are we screaming about again?
Are you sure you don’t mean Spinal Tap’s “Smell the Glove?”
Looks like we’re not getting Bellinger. Kiermier is a steal but not exactly the type of bat the jays should be prioritizing.
Why does this mean the Blue Jays don’t want Bellinger? They can use him at 1B and in center along with Kiermaier. Kevin needs a lot of time off, anyway.
@CaseyAbell
One good season in the past 4 years for a guy that wants 20M+ for a long term contract isn’t a good bet.
Jays should absolutely roll the dice on Belly. Slot him between Vlad and Bichette. He’ll be a MVP candidate, 30/30 w/ GG defense @ 1 and CF. Or none of those things and he’s traded for peanuts to SF where he catches fire.
“Roll the dice on Belly”…For what Bellinger’s seeking, a team should get certainty, not a “roll of the dice”.
Roll the joint WITH belly
Or he’ll be garbage….as in 21 and 22.
But….off you go…..
Because kiermaier and Bellinger both get significant value from their centerfield defense. You aren’t signing Bellinger for $150 mil+ to play him at first base or corner outfield
You can play Bellinger plenty in center even with Kiermaier around. You have to manage Kevin’s workload carefully or he winds up hurt in six different ways.
If you sign Bellinger he should be playing center every day. Not a handful of innings per week to give kiermaier rest
Why do you have to play Bellinger every day in center? The Cubs didn’t and they got plenty of value out of him. Give him lots of reps at 1B and DH along with plenty of play in center to spell Kiermaier. Would work fine.
Now I can see the argument against signing Bellinger because of his inconsistency with the bat. But I don’t understand the argument that he has to play center every day.
Maybe not every single day, but he should be a starting CF who can occasionally play 1B. Not a 1B/DH who can occasionally play CF.
He wasn’t on a $200m contract with the cubs. The argument is that in order to maximize his value and justify his supposed price tag, he’d need to be playing CF for a large majority of his innings.
If he’s willing to take something closer to $100m, then your suggestion, while not optimum, still makes sense. If you’re giving him 200-250m, it does not.
Jays would be wise to go after a Bader or Michael A Taylor type to let Springer DH and play CF when a lefty starts. Thanks to not only Kiermaier’s injury history but also Varsho’s bat.
Jays now need to focus on a 3B.
I can see Cody Bellinger still being unsigned come April/May ’24.
I’ll take it…..best #9 hitter in the league with a gold glove…1 year 10 is a steal.
And this doesn’t rule out Bellinger, not necessarily
Agree. Who is his agent? Sounds more like grand larceny than a steal.
Morosi is saying Kiermaier’ plane is on its way to Toronto
Hmm, if he will be the 4th OF type and play 100-115 games next year at all three positions, he will be a good pick up. If he is the starter in CF and they do not acquire a power hitting LH LF then they will have failed miserably.
@TennVol
The Jays don’t need a LH bat in the OF. They need a RH bat to platoon with Varsho.
They just need someone who can hit the ball for crying out loud
I look at guys like Kiermaier and wonder why he isn’t more valued. His WAR is up and down across his career and he’s not the guy he was at his absolute peak, but he seems worthy of a multi-year deal with a healthy AAV, like 3 years/$42M guaranteed when including a buyout on a 4th year or something.
I know he’d already received a substantial extension that felt like it didn’t work out- but looking at some of the contracts given out nowadays, even as he ‘underwhelmed’ on that deal, by today’s standards he was a very fair value for his salaries, even for a lower budgeted team like the Rays.
Kevin is a great player and a wonderful human but the strategic fit between him and the Jays roster is so awkward. His entire skillset is almost exactly duplicated by Varsho, you don’t need two of those players on a team.
Varsho becomes our 4th outfielder with any OF acquisition; a guy who can bunt with decent foot speed, albeit a pricey bench piece considering the trade package. Our pitchers love these guys.
The best defensive outfielder in mlb isn’t going to the bench with his power potential. More likely he gets more games in CF and KK sees more time on the bench
@Mystery13
A player that has a very good glove but a well below average bat is the very definition of a bench piece. In Varsho’s case, a 4th OF.
@saint. His 2 previous seasons and his plus power potential suggest otherwise. He was a win more valuable than Gurriel, and I guarantee you don’t think he is a 4th outfielder
@Mystery13
You must be looking at Bref’s WAR. Fangraphs have them both at 2.1 fWAR. Plus power potential? His actual power is of an average MLB’er. He’s had 4 years to realize his potential power and hasn’t, and certainly hasn’t against against LHP. If Varsho can’t get his offense above average, he is forging a path of a 4th OF. At best, he’s a strong side platoon player. He certainly isn’t a starting player.
Exactly, if he was a short stop, the padres would have signed him
Nice to see the Jays resign KK. Besides his stellar defense, his biggest value is being an example to and leader of others. He never takes anything for granted and always is giving 100%. He never trots to 1st base on a grounder — unlike other Jays players. For a team like the Jays with a decent amount of talent in the minors who may be coming up this year, KK is an example of how the game should be played.
This. 110%
Just noticed that Keirmaier had a 7.1 WAR season in 2015 and didn’t even make the All-Star team. Shows how outfield defense is largely ignored. At least the Blue Jays appreciate his glove.
I love how people hate on the Varsho trade after one year. They tend to forget the adventure that most fly balls were to Gurriel in left field.
Better defense, better base running, better baseball smarts. Varsho will have a better year at the plate.
Again, outfield defense gets ignored by a lot of people. Varsho has a great year with the glove and nobody cares.
That said, if Toronto moves Varsho to a corner outfield spot, he’s gonna have to hit better than .220/.285/.389 to justify an everyday job.
@Cabby24
The Diamondbacks loved the trade so much they resigned Gurriel.
He will? Trend says that’s a hard maybe.
Gurriel is/was afraid of fences. Hosed a bunch of runners from LF. A left fielder is supposed to be your worst defender with a great bat. Varsho was in the bottom 10 in OPS for qualified players last year, and he hasn’t proven to be a consistent hitter in his career. Poor man’s Matt Chapman.
It wasn’t just Varsho for Gurriel though…
Adding Soler to this outfield mix would create a really nice combination of power and defense. I think this move is okay in a vacuum, but adding an offensive complement to rotate through outfield/DH/against lefties would be excellent.
Soler’s a DH. He just can’t play the outfield even passably. An ugly -10.2 dWAR on his career.
That said, Toronto needs a DH with Belt gone. So maybe they’ll be interested.
With their reported interest in Martinez, they’ll likely be looking at other DH options such as Hoskins. Soler at the minimum can at least field an outfield position, which could serve as injury insurance if the Jays aren’t willing to bring up a Barger type yet. I agree that a DH would augment the lineup well, but signing even a terrible outfielder would allow for more positional flexibility.
I’m not too familiar with Soler’s defensive chops – from Savant it looks like he has an average arm but terrible range. Perhaps he’d improve playing next to an elite CF defender in Varsho/Kiermaier.
It’ll be interesting to see what moves they make next.
Cubs and Belli reunion incoming.
Yup pretty much, this might actually lower Bellinger’s price tag. Cubbies just playing the waiting game.
You wanted that coveted left handed bat. You got it.
Much like a year ago, Jays will need to sign a RH outfield bat. They did not do that and paid for it. Kiermaier will miss time with injury. Need a reliable backup.
The problem with Toronto adding Soler is that he’s wildly inconsistent. Well, he’s consistently terrible with the glove. But the bat comes and goes. If Soler doesn’t hit a lot, he becomes literally one of the worst players in the league. That’s why he’s only had one year when he did better than two WAR.
Overall for his 10-year career Soler has a whopping 5.9 WAR. Always bad with the glove, sometimes bad with the bat. I would not sign the guy for any kind of serious money.
A two-year deal for Soler is as high as anyone should go. As you mentioned he’s a bat-only hitter that has extremely high volatility, he’s either cranking homeruns or he’s producing tepid results.
Varsho put up a 3.9 WAR season and plays great defense. He could be traded to a CF-needed team. I agree that he doesn’t make sense in LF.
You can never assume health in a vacuum, as it would be very convenient to have multiple GG-caliber CFs on a roster in case one of them goes down with injury. It probably wouldn’t be a great time to trade Varsho either, given that he needs a resurgence with the bat to boost his value.
It’s one of the reason’s this move is so baffling to me – Varsho was going to be in CF where he belongs but aTkins goes out of his way to spend $10M to cause himself a problem of a CF miscast as a LF
Everyone says this guy is the most attractive player but to me he’s really ugly lol. Eric Hosmer is the most attractive player.
Don’t critique me for talking about player appearances. In 2012 MLB Network did a segment on the most attractive and most ugly managers. They went with Brad Ausmus and Cint Hurdle respectively. One of the most cringe worthy episodes they’ve ever done
Attractive? Enrique Hernandez enters the chat
“That being said…” Damn, Nicky boy…your articles always bring a chuckle. Thanks!
KK wouldn’t have looked right in pinstripes…
Nobody looks right in pinstripes. They do it for the $
Huh, I thought he’d get more
Sweet sassy molassy
Kiermaier at $10.5 million in today’s market is a fantastic value.
Well that makes up for not getting Ohtani.
OMG! Jays FO actually did something! Great signing FO. KK has a great attitude and influence on this team. Super excited about him staying in Toronto!
Resign Chappy and go for Bellinger!
Really??
“Davis Schneider and Eddie Romero”. Where did the latter mystery ‘prospect’ come from, mulled cider?
I caught that too.
The jays should focus on signing 1 year rentals who can be traded at the deadline if things go off the rails a la the Cards last season, and focus all their long term payroll to next off season. Soto, Bregman etc. trading for Adames would be a nice move and he could also be flipped if an extension can’t get worked out
If it was between KK and MIchael A Taylor for CF, I prefer Kiermaier. I’d like a JD Martinez signing and then a trade for an impact IF’er at 3b or maybe 2b.
If Varsho were to be part of a trade (don’t think he has the value to headline a meaningful trade on his own) there isn’t really a great backup option
I definitely wouldn’t trade Varsho unless he was returning a 2nd or 3rd baseman of equal value. His presence is too valuable with KK’s injury history. Manoah is the piece they should try and trade
See im more of a Taylor guy for this team. They need a guy who can hammer LHP and he has more power
I’m still fine punting KK’s bat for his glove but the 3b and DH absolutely must be significant upgrades. They can’t keep running Kirk out there as a DH and they just don’t have the assets to complete multiple trades for premiium bats, I think there’s enough for one decent trade, at least for the caliber of bat we are looking for
@gvnbuist, It really depends on how creative the front office can get, the problem seems to be they aren’t creative. They should be looking to sign a pitcher to a 2 or 3 year deal and then use Manoah in a trade to get the position player they need.
Not a fan of this. Jay’s needed more offense and this makes the Varsho trade even worse now that he can’t play center field. Also expecting KK to have two consecutive years of good health when he is now 34 is asking a lot. They lucked out last year that he stayed healthy.
Kiermaier was in no way an issue offensively last season especially hitting out of the nine spot, and he helped make the Jays one of the best defensive teams in the league. Varsho will still see time in CF and as you just pointed out, KK probably gets injured at some point, making Varsho more valuable not less. His signing also in no way inhibits the Jays from acquiring at least 2 middle order bats to fill out the roster
Where do you see these 2 middle of the order bats playing? You can get one at DH, but there isn’t really anyone available at the other positions they have free.
All of 2nd base, 3rd base and DH have openings. A short term signing of either Martinez or Hoskins and maybe a trade for Adames would all make sense. That is only a couple of options, but I prefer they go the short term route this offseason and look for more long term options next off season
Martinez would be good, but there really isn’t much available offense wise for 2B and 3B. Nothing on the FA market. Adames would be kind of a lateral move from Chapman. Adames only had a .717 OPS last year and hit .217. He was actually pretty similar to Varsho offensively. A bit higher OPS, but tons of strikeouts and a poor OBP.
Adames gives you 30 homer potential and defensive versatility seeing as he could play 2nd or 3rd or SS. He also doesn’t come with a long term contract like Chapman, but would be a better extension candidate cause he’s 3 years younger.
Im not a fan of this either personally, not that im not a KK fan but it screams that there wont be an impact OF addition were i thought they needed it most as they have 2 decent 3b prospects with power who could have stepped in there if need be. I really think that Eloy Jeminez or Nick Castellanos would look good at dh and could be had at a decent price, Nick espically and and the Phillys would pay 1 of his 3 years remaining im sure. Soler im not a big fan of as he is up and down every year but JD would make sense. I dont see any infield FAs that make sense and Chapman needs to go elsewhere. Adamas would be nice but unless he resigned im bot a fan of trading Tiedaman or Barger unless its for more then a year of control and ideally over 2
I don’t see any way that Adames costs one of those prospects for one year, there are other options, and it depends on how other teams value Manoah’s 4 years of control.
Another issue with getting KK is the LHH:RHH balance it presumably leads to.
Whoever they end up with for the 3B hole is a RHH, same as nearly all the DH’s available (Hoskins, JDM, Soler etc.) The top half of the order will all be RHH with Springer, Vlad, Bo, 3B & DH and then all the LHH at the bottom with KK, Varsho and Biggio. Looks like an awkwardly unbalanced roster construction, without some further transactions
I’m not really sure what this says about what the Jays think of Varsho. His glove is so much more valuable in CF, I thought they would want to maximize his time there. Do they still believe in his bat enough to play him regularly in LF? Or will they just take the value his glove can produce part time in CF and still add more of an everyday option in the OF?
Who the heck is Eddy Romero??
Mrs. Romero’s son.
Love the have not Jays fans.
Why would this stop them from going after Bellinger?
If they didn’t sign Bellinger what’s the difference anyways.
Kiermaier 2.0 OWAR(Batting ninth all year!) & 2.2 DWAR. Bellinger 4.2 OWAR &0.1 DWAR.
Oh no, where will Toronto ever find an extra 0.1 wins?
I’ll take the known of Kiermaier year by year over the who knows what of Bellinger any day.
Kk isn’t a sure thing. When is the last time he played two consecutive seasons without a major injury?
Its not that this is a bad move for the jays bit it has the visuals of not adding a more impactful OF bat
Bellinger is probably going to Farhan’s big ticket purchase.
Just a good overall fit. Nothing bad here. Trade at deadline if it goes South.
But if Vlad keeps hitting 110mph in the carpet it’s all moot.
Cubs say thank you. Gonna get Bellinger back on a more reasonable deal with less years.
It was the fourth time he reached 120+ games, not the third. He reached that total in 2015, 2019, 2021, and 2023.
As much as ShapieRo and useless Atkins need to be shown the door,.
This is a typical signing by the 2 Clowns . KK is Good for the team….
How? One of the biggest issues last year was the lack of offense in the outfield, this recreates that issue. If he even stays healthy.
who is Eddy Romero?
Secret weapon, darkside!
Player X?
Oh ffs… Last year they pulled him off the scrap heap after missing on Nimmo and I’ll admit it worked out in a way. It helped them defensively but it put Varsho out of position. They miss their guy again and create the same problem again. They needed Varsho in CF and an impact bat for LF. Stop talking about the Jays outfield defense like a weapon when every team in baseball has two A+ defending light hitting guys they could play but they choose not to sacrifice the offense. The Jays are also counting on Kiermaier to have back to back healthy seasons as a starter for the first time in his entire career?
If the rumours are correct and Tim Anderson is the next jays signing, I’ll have no respect left for this management for putting the team back at the scrap heap.
@big tee
Given Anderson’s performance on the field last year, including the shenanigans, he would be fortunate to land a MiLB deal… or a WWE deal.
If they sign that clown, I’ll be watching another team until that useless pile isn’t wearing the jersey anymore. Rogers PR team needed to go all out to turn the fans into Kiermaier fans when he came into town with a bit of a reputation for being a drink but there’s no way they could spin Anderson as a good signing. I can see it happening though because they are once again a team that has to raid the scrap heap or trade away the farm.
Dink not drink lol
Trade Incoming: Daulton Varsho and Alek Manoah for Jake Cronenworth (including cash) and Jackson Merrill
@padres2024champs
Moving Varsho and Manoah creates holes in LF and in the rotation. Cronenworth would join Vlad, Biggio, Schneider, Espinal, and Bichette on the IF with Barger and Martinez waiting in the minors. This deal makes no sense.
Can we stop talking about trading Varsho? If he was playing his natural position while hitting at the bottom of the order seeing more to hit, the fans would love him. If they trade him, who’s playing CF next year or when Kiermaier gets hurt? They have zero depth in center and that’s why they traded for him in the first place. He’s young, cheap and has plenty of team control in his contract. He’s going nowhere.
He hit at the bottom of the order MOST of the season, Hot Dog is an awful manager and had him hit 2 to 4 sometimes LOL
Its a bit unfair to him as Atkins put this immense pressure on him by making an awful trade. If he was drafted by the Blue Jays, I am sure he would be a fan favorite like Pillar was, but lets not pretend that Varsho is anymore than a good defensive outfielder but poor hitter.
I agree he isnt going anywhere though due to the sunk cost fallacy and the fact that Atkins would get way less than he gave up.
Varsho has a career wRC+ of 96, even after a career worst year at the plate. Not great, but not exactly “poor” either, especially for a CF, his natural position
I agree. It’s way too early to write him off as a poor hitter. Everyone is assuming last year is his new normal even though it was his first year in a new league. Checkout Olson and Seager’s first year in a new league vs their second year. They both had a huge improvement. If it affects players of their talent, then it should be no surprise Varsho had a rough go of it.
If you look at Varsho’s rookie year vs his second year you can see he is capable of making adjustments after seeing pitchers more than once. He has a 75 OPS+ in his first season in the NL in 2020 and then jumped to 102 the next season. He also had a nice run at the end of 2023 that showed signs of improvement after gaining some experience with pitchers.
If he falls flat on face this year and fails to get better marks then it will be reasonable to consider writing him off. You got to give him at least the 2024 season first.
Dang, I wanted Twins to sign him. he’d be perfect Buxton insurance…Plus our pitchers are going to need good defense behind them this year!
Should have been a career Ray. Mistake by Tampa Bay.
And your comment, which is understandable from a fan’s perspective, is why Rays FO folks don’t always work out when they move to a different organization.
The Rays way is to maximize wins by minimizing overpaying. KK’s final year was an option year at $13M. He has yet to sign for $13M. That said, I hear you. I miss KK. He was a joy to watch with the Rays.
His career with Tampa was deferred.
Good for KK. He’s made a career out of getting paid not to hit.
Doesn’t matter when you’re as good at defense as KK is. And besides, he’s been nearly a league average hitter for his career
I disagree. Defensive stats are messy at best. KK makes dramatic catches in front of his fellow outfielders who could have made a routine play, that’s about it.
Don’t understand this move at all. I like Kiermeier, but it would make a lost more sense to target a corner OF and move Varsho to center
He’s not winning any batting titles but decent enough player that you expect a .250 BA and .300 wOBA. I guess he’s worth the defense.
Go Cubs Go!!!