With the offseason on the verge of kicking into high gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Option decisions come due:
Today is the deadline for option decisions around the league. Many of the most significant option decisions were resolved over the weekend, including veteran righty Marcus Stroman’s decision to hit the open market and the White Sox’s decision to decline their option on shortstop Tim Anderson. That being said, there are a handful of option decisions that have been left to the final day before the deadline. Some of them seem fairly certain, such as the likelihood that shortstop Javier Baez will opt into the final four years and $98MM remaining on his contract with the Tigers, but other decisions provide more intrigue. Giants outfielder Michael Conforto, Tigers catcher Carson Kelly, and Blue Jays right-hander Chad Green are among the players whose option decisions still appear to be up in the air headed into the day.
2. Qualifying Offer decisions:
By 4pm CT this afternoon, teams will have to decide whether or not to extend pending free agents a one-year, $20.325MM qualifying offer. If a player receives a QO, he’ll have until November 14 to decide whether to accept or reject the offer. If rejected, the player’s former team will receive draft pick compensation in the event the player signs anywhere else this offseason. Players traded mid-season such as Lucas Giolito and Jeimer Candelario are ineligible to receive a QO, as are players who have already been extended the QO previously such as Marcus Stroman and Justin Turner. Many QO decisions are fairly cut-and-dry; it’s all but certain, for example, that the Angels will extend Shohei Ohtani a qualifying offer, which he in turn is all but certain to reject. That being said, some decisions aren’t so certain, such as that of the Dodgers regarding veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently previewed today’s pitching QO decisions, while MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed today’s decisions regarding position players.
3. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents:
With the 2023-24 class of free agents on the verge of being mostly set in stone this afternoon, we here at MLBTR are excited to unveil our annual Top 50 Free Agents list later today. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until the QO decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. For instance, one year ago, we predicted that Joc Pederson would accept the QO and returns to the Giants, which eventually came to pass. For most borderline QO candidates, we have separate predictions based on whether they get the offer or not. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the events of an unpredictable offseason.
What time can free agents officially sign??
They can do it starting today I think. I believe it’s 5 days after the World Series ends.
I think 5 pm et
Starting at 5 PM EST free agents can negotiate with other teams.
So a free agent signing at 5:01 would be highly suspicious!
Matt Chapman isn’t worth a Qualifying Offer. His defense isn’t THAT good, and he never hit unless it was April or July. Blue Jays offer and then pray (to God, Allah, Jobu, whatever Diety) that he rejects it so they can have the draft pick, or that he doesn’t have a contract on March 1oth and accepts like $7 mil to return
He’s worth to QO for the simple fact that he will reject it and Toronto will get draft compensation after he leaves and signs $100 million contract somewhere else
I mean I think he might be overrated but no way he accepts the QO.
Matt Chapman absolutely gets a QO. 3.5 fWAR, 4.4 bWAR. Averaged to 3.95 WAR, that’s ~$25-30MM in value. He will also reject the QO as he’s looking at bare minimum 4/100.
Hes the hest defensive player in the league at his position.
Its a weak hitting crop, hes about to get overpaid by a lot.
Cause his defence IS that good.
Also 3rd basemen 30 see huge regressions traditionally.
So thanks for the memories chappy!
Reds will sign NONE of the top 50. Easy bet.
TOBTTR you are very cynical. The Reds will sign a Wil Meyer type three weeks into Spring Training. Have faith in money bags Phil!
I have a friend who expects to see the guy from her local sub shop on the mound at GABP this year because he is good at throwing those sandwiches around.
I can’t wait to see which team gets stuck with the worst contact in history (Shohei)
Stanton’s will stir be worse
johnd, you’re talking about two very different things.
Another interesting thing happening today is a lot of waiver claims and outrights as teams need to clear spots to activate all of their 60 day IL guys. There were at least 25 players put on waivers on Thursday and all of these players will be claimed or likely outrighted today.
Can’t wait til the predictions come up my fav post of the year.
I have a question that I was thinking about while watching the World Series.
When a batter is in the box, is he given signs via the 3rd base coach on what pitch to look for? Does this happen on every pitch? Or does the batter himself have free rein on what pitches to sit on? Does it vary on experience?
I’ve always been curious on how often the batter is correct in what pitch is coming.
Generally third base coaches are signaling things like bunt, swing away, hit and run, or steal. A ton of theyr signsks mean nothing and only exist to disguise the ones with meaning.
Hitters are given scouting reports on pitchers and their pitch selection tendencies.
Thank you
I’m from the Central Valley. We look after each other.
who will be the first FA to sign after 5 PM today ?? Guesses
I believe the Texas Rangers will spend like they did the last two off-season it would not shock me to see Shohei Ohtani, sign with Texas. Regardless of what he does, I do believe Clayton Kershaw will definitely sign with Texas.
Champ: Ohtani will only sign with the Rangers if they move to the west coast.
Jon Heyman said Rangers is his #1 destination if they meet the asking price.
Can’t wait for top 50.
The Astros are gonna try to sign Mitch Garver from the Texas Rangers it will be interesting to see if Texas offers qualifying offer or a quick two year deal. In the 25-30 million range.
Cleveland won’t sign anyone. Antonetti will cite “acquisition costs” and “re-allocation of resources”. GM will say nothing and owner will smile at his accountants. Still, the A.L.Central proves harder to finish last than finish first. OK. if they dump Bieber’s salary they might sign a reliever. I overstated.
They continue to have a screaming need for a RH run producer – preferably a corner OF – and they’ll pussy-foot around like they’re trying to fill that need, and then come Antonetti’s excuses. They NEED to trade Straw in a package with Bieber to bring back that corner bat, move Kwan to CF, and sign another RH corner bat. I’m not gonna hold my breath for any of that to happen because they have an irrational attachment to the deeply flawed Myles Straw.
Justin Turner will be the first FA to sign. Back with the Dodgers.
Unlikely. Their first priority is Ohtani, and if that fails they’ll fall back on Martínez. Turner will already be signed by another team if and when both those options fail.
MLBTR should add a contest. Which of their top 50 signs first and with which team for how much.
Ya’ll doing a Free Agent signings contest again this year?!
Sort of says so in the article.
Prepare yourselves for Boras commentary….
Followed by commentary about how he’s the sole evil, greedy agent trying to get a ton of money for his clients.
Boras is the PT Barnum of MLB agents. There’s a sucker born every minute, and he will identify that sucker. Sometimes it’s the player (see Conforto).