Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Those players are:
- Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs)
- Matt Chapman (Blue Jays)
- Sonny Gray (Twins)
- Josh Hader (Padres)
- Aaron Nola (Phillies)
- Blake Snell (Padres)
Previous reports had already indicated that Teoscar Hernández, Mitch Garver, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins had not received the QO. The same is true of Jorge Soler and longer-shot candidates like Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier.
The QO is valued at $20.325MM this offseason. Players have until next Tuesday to decide whether to accept. The seven players who were tagged all seemed virtual locks to both receive and decline it. It’s hard to envision anyone in this group taking a one-year pact.
Indeed, the more surprising aspect of this year’s class were the number of players who were not qualified. Last winter, 14 players were tagged with the QO. Borderline cases Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez wound up accepting. Teams were far more risk-averse this winter, shying away from the potential lofty commitment for all but the market’s top options.
[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]
With QO decisions now made, every free agent is allowed to begin negotiations with other teams. The five-day window of exclusive negotiation with their incumbent club is over. If these players sign elsewhere, their teams would be entitled to compensation.
The Twins, as a revenue sharing recipient, stand to receive the greatest compensation. Assuming Gray beats a $50MM guarantee (a good bet), Minnesota’s compensatory pick would fall after the first round in next year’s draft. The Cubs, as a team that neither receives sharing nor paid the luxury tax, would land a choice that falls between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round for Bellinger’s departure.
San Diego, Toronto and Philadelphia all surpassed the CBT threshold this year. They’d therefore receive the lowest compensation — a draft choice between Rounds 4 and 5. The Angels finished the season right on the border of the $233MM threshold and don’t yet know whether they paid the tax. As a result, they’re still awaiting word on whether they’d land the pick before the third round or after the fourth if Ohtani heads elsewhere.
All of them will decline the qualifying offer.
The QO needs at least one fix. If a player made more last season than the QO amount, then his QO amount should be his last year’s salary plus some inflation amount like 5% or so. The QO makes no sense for some players.
Hey cut it out. That makes too much sense to consider.
It makes perfect sense. It is intended to be a formality extended only to lock in that extra draft pick.
You’re right, Hemlock, but MLB needs to address even bigger issues than that.
The whole point is that only the top tier free agents will reject it, providing the team they are leaving with draft pick compensation. It shouldn’t make sense for them. Worked perfectly this year, it seems….
Chapman should take it. A better platform year and no QO attached would equal a better payday…
So all the players this site listed as no-doubters and none listed as “likely” or “possible.”
No Jorge Soler
Marlins don’t extend qualifying offer to Soler
If Soler had been offered one and declined it, the Marlins would have received Draft-pick compensation. Soler, who declined his 2024 player option ($9 million, with an increase by up to $4 million based on plate appearances in ’23), will now test the free-agent market.
28 mins ago
mlb.com/news/jorge-soler-doesn-t-get-qualifying-of…
The Marlins would have gotten the draft pick compensation only if Soler rejected a QO and then signed a contract worth more than $50M total with a team willing to take on any penalties that come with signing a player who rejected a QO. Turns out that was more risk than the Marlins were willing to take on.
Soler is worth one year at 20 million, but with Bell and Burger locked into the roster, they would not want Soler eating up all the DH at-bats and he is not the best corner outfielder.
Spotrac has Soler at 4yrs $56MM ($14MM AAV), but there’s a lot of risk in his profile. He was nothing more than serviceable from 2020-2023.
I think he’ll settle in more like 3yrs $36MM.
I completely agree. He’s no slam dunk producer and certainly no stranger to the IL. 3/36 is realistic, but the question is who? Seattle? Toronto? I’d say the Yankees if he was a better OF, but the guy is right on par with Schwarber in that regard.
Soler is the type of guy who fills a desperate need on a team who doesn’t have a ton to spend. Toronto and New York won’t sign a Soler to start. Seattle actually got pretty good production from Mike Ford who will probably earn about $1MM as an Arb 1 this year.
I could see the Nationals doing it.
I would be surprised if he got more than two years. I expect him to get a deal like Josh Bell did.
No surprises here.
Chapman doesn’t seem like a QO type player…chance he accepts?
There are next to no offensive players in the market. This is the best time for him to be a few agent. Even if he’s just average with the bat these days
I’d guess 1% or less chance he accepts.
Chapman’s market value at Spotrac is 6yrs/$103MM.
Bleacher Report says 6yrs/$126MM
The Athletic 6yrs/$127MM
He’s 100% no way accepting a QO.
He would be crazy, money wise, not to.
Chapman is going to sign for at least $80M.
Few 3B out there on the market, and someone will overpay him. Just not seeing him at 6/$150 as some Jays fans absurdly predicted a few months ago.
Chapman… Remember Stephen Drew declined one, had to wait until June to get a contract, and was out of baseball a couple years later? Same concept if he doesn’t accept….
Lol, is this a serious take?
Chapman will beat that easily. No risk to decline that for him. He’s the right age and in the right FA class.
Can’t accept what wasn’t offered.
How is it that Los Angeles of Anaheim doesn’t know if they need to pay the CBT? Is the CBA that convoluted that team’s lawyers don’t understand it? Is Arte so cheap that he doesn’t have lawyers?
The reason is because the Angels were trying to shed money through waivers until the very end. It wasn’t clear how much of those contracts would be credited to their cap payroll. I’d think of it like accounts payable invoices where you’re not exactly sure of the final figure until all payments are reconciled. They were so close to the line that it wasn’t certain where it would end up.
Your explanation makes sense, but since the luxury tax is punitive, and teams have to manage to it, then every contract should have a set remaining value. I didn’t like what Arte did, but I understand it. There shouldn’t be any mystery to the Angels if they made it or not. MLB should be able to tell them definitively. They will eventually, so why not at the point the transaction happens?
I’m sure they know. They and MLB just haven’t announced exactly where they ended up. They also know Ohtani isn’t coming back for $20M so they night as well get some compensation.
Tigers should kick the tires on Maeda. High upside there and they need another arm since Erod is obviously bailing.
Kinda surprised mariners didn’t try to recoup some draft pick comp from slapping Teoscar with the QO. I’m sure he will get a 3 year deal this winter worth more than 20 mill. It would have been nice to get a 2nd round pick out of him walking. Now they get zero. Dumb move.
I was kind of surprised they didn’t QO him as well. He started off slow but had 26 HR and 2.1 WAR for a team that needs offense.
A 2 WAR player with his K issues shouldn’t cost $20.5MM per year. He can’t afford to swing and miss anymore with his profile. If he gets anywhere near what MLBTR projected—that’s an ugly contract for his next team.
I think he signs for less than a $50MM guarantee.
Mariners didn’t want stuck with a 700 ops 31 32 year old corner outfielder costing 20 million a year. Already traded a good reliever. No reason to double down on stupidity.
Unless it costs you more to replace him and the numbers are similar. With a one and done you bank on Teoscar playing for a bigger payday.
Seattle wouldn’t have been stupid to lay a QO on him.
The Phils giving a QO to Nola is no surprise, although initial reports had the Phils not planning to give him or Hoskins a QO. Nola will probably reject it. Hoskins will probably test the free agency waters, but he may return to the Phils for a hometown discount. Hoskins has given the Phils a lot of life since he moved up from Triple A. No aspect of his game is great, but he’s a solid player who the Phils should think carefully about resigning. Harper should not be playing first base. There are too many ways for him to get injured there. Harper being run over by Olson in the Braves playoff momentarily stopped a lot of hearts in Philly, and a wiser front office and field manager would have immediately put an end to Harper’s first base aspirations. The reason the Phils have gone along with Harper’s first base experiment has to do with their DH situation. Schwarber cannot play any position defensively. He was the absolute worst starting outfielder statistically last season in the majors. So, he can only DH. Unfortunately, his occupying the DH position full time has deprived others like Harper, Realmuto, Castellanos, Turner, and Bohm from being able to hit on a daily basis but still get an occasional day off defensively. This has adversely affected most of their batting averages this season because these guys were forced to sit out games when they needed a rest rather than being able to DH. What has also adversely affected the Phils entire offense this season is Schwarber’s insistence on leading off. What championship team has ever had a leadoff hitter with a .197 batting average and 215 strikeouts? What’s more, Schwarber getting on base via walks has put a damper on the Phils highly effective running game. Turner stole bases at will this past season but was unable to do so when Schwarber was a base ahead of him. Schwarber did hit 47 home runs this season but very few of them were game winners or homers that had a direct impact on the outcome of the game. Just like Boston Celtics fans erroneously thought the team wouldn’t be able to win if the team leader, Marcus Smart, was traded, many Phillies fans would feel the same about seeing Schwarber traded. And yet, this may be what is necessary to help the Phils get over the last hump that is keeping them from winning a world championship. Trading Schwarber would allow the Phils to open up the DH to multiple players, not just one. It would also allow the Phils to bring back Hoskins as their first baseman and put Harper in right field where he can play with greater safety than he may experience at first base.
Thumbs up even tho I’m not a Philly fan….I like it
Nola would have to be a idiot to accept it.
Yep. Schwarber can’t be trusted.
Have you heard of paragraphs? That is totally unreadable.
Schwarber not good because of batting average Dinosaur argument. The classic I don’t know what I’m talking about and going to out myself
The classic “I justified a .197 batting average in an attempt to be smart” argument. You failed to see the part about his defense too.
Stopped reading after he mentioned batting average, no point in reading further. If that’s any part of the argument it’s wrong.
One wonders why Schwarber bats leadoff when his manager who everyone loves because he ignores analytics and manages with his gut. Weird
The fact that so much time has been wasted arguing over the QO during CBA negotiations tells us how much the MLBPA has been distracted by agents worried about the biggest contract. They did a heck of a lot more for the younger players just by getting modest minimum salary increases. Now, if they could just work on CBT thresholds
The MLBPA better get worried about the health of the game before it is too late for their members.
Baseball attendance was the highest since 2017 this year. Fans are loving the shorter games with more steals and base hits, and players are loving not having random 20 inning contests thrown into the schedule. I’m not sure what your barometer is for the health of the game, but most measurable statistics are pointing in the right direction for MLB.
There’s some good value buy low free agents in that list without the QO attached. I’m a Mets fan and expect them to be strongly interested in Maeda to fill a vacancy in the rotation, and that they’ll sign either Martinez or Hoskins as a DH. I also think that Cohen will open up the vault for Yamamoto and outbid everyone else. The only question will be if he wants to come to New York.
Surely Chapman and Gray take the cash. They’d both be crazy not to. Chap man’s bat has only lasted at most 3/4 of a season once and sonny gray is 36 I believe. Take the bread guys
Both should and likely will reject it and get much more $.
Chapman? I ain’t so sure about that.
Gray will make more than the $20M plus get some years. No way he takes the QO. Teams will take a chance that Chapman lasts a whole season plus he’ll get more than a one year contract.
Gray is a safe investment. Old? Yes, but small injury history. Why? Probably a combo of good genetics and pitching mechanics (doesn’t seem to overthrow). A comparable, minus the crazy ball movement action, is Greg Maddox?
Gray is unlikely to have a better platform year.
I wonder how far the Angels set themselves back not trading Ohtani and then going all in and trading prospects in 2023?
The Angels set themselves back the day Arte decided, “Hey, I can be an owner and a GM too!”. The titular Angels GM spends tons of Arte’s money on FA and rolls snake eyes almost every time. .
Should have traded Ohtani and Trout a while ago for a bushel of prospects; hired a real GM and things might have worked out differently.
Worst run team in all of MLB. 2024 will be another sub-.500 team that won’t make the playoffs.
Agents drive the decisions as they have the pulse of the market and what is realistically obtainable for their client. The player provides some input, pushing agents for more, etc.
About $1.25 billion about to be spent on those 7 players this offseason.
Yeah but 600 mil going to one player…
Hoping the Phillies re-sign both Nola and Hoskins. Nola isn’t really an ace like some of the greats who have had that descriptor applied to them, However, he’s a terrific #2 or #3 starting pitcher who takes the ball every five days and produces solid results.
Look at the Phillies line up if Hoskins is re-signed. Not a dead spot anywhere.
Turner SS
Stott 2B
Bohm 3B
Harper RF
Realmuto C
Schwarber DH
Hoskins 1B
Castellanos LF
Marsh/Rojas CF
I hate the QO process. Like I get it to some degree but it can really hurt those middle tier teams trying to take the next lvl in free agency. Not only do they ultimately pay a fortune for the player but the sorta mortgage the future beyond the cash with a prospect. Rough. Then for the players sake, especially those borderline players that have a QO extended to them, it can devalue them from teams. Those players are fringe worth that money to begin with, now you got to give up a draft pick to get them? Idk… just don’t like it
Eh, if you are a fringe player take the 20 million and put it in the bank and sign un-encumbered next year. The point is to transfer value from the wealthy franchises to the poor ones, who cannot retain good players. It also compensates wealthy franchises when a top tier FA leaves…
I don’t love it. I don’t think it hurts the middle tiers as much as it seems, unless it is a bad signing. Draft picks have value but very little compared to the production of the seven players who were QO’d.
Hader should take the QO. That would make him the highest paid closer in MLB.