The Red Sox are going into their first offseason with Craig Breslow as chief baseball officer and he is setting his sights on upgrading the club’s rotation, though he isn’t specifying exactly how many pitchers he plans on bringing in. “I think we need to be open-minded,” Breslow said, per Christopher Smith of MassLive. “Starting pitching is certainly a priority for us. But to kind of try and forecast exactly a number or anything kind of more specific than that probably doesn’t make sense.”
It’s not an especially surprising pursuit for the Sox, since the rotation was a weak spot for the club in 2023. Their starters as a whole put up an earned run average of 4.68 for the year, which placed them 22nd out of the 30 clubs in the league. There are some talented names on the roster but each has concerns around health or inconsistency or both, with Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock the candidates for rotation jobs right now.
Sale hardly pitched from 2020 to 2022 due to various injuries. He was able to log 102 2/3 innings in 2023 but with an ERA of 4.30. Pivetta struggled enough to get bumped to the bullpen but finished in good form, whereas Bello was stronger in the first half but faded down the stretch. Crawford had a 4.04 ERA this year with good peripherals, though it’s unclear if that’s sustainable since he’s never been a highly-touted prospect. Houck has shown some potential, but injuries have continually kept him in the range of 100-120 innings. The same is largely true for Whitlock, though he hasn’t even reached 100 frames since 2018.
Though they theoretically have six options for five rotation spots, there are arguments for skepticism with each one. Breslow says that Houck and Whitlock will still be stretched out, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, but they could be pivoted back to the bullpen later. Both pitchers have had better results as relievers, with Houck having an ERA of 2.68 out of the ’pen and Whitlock a 2.65 in his career, whereas they have starting ERAs of 4.17 and 4.76 respectively. That doesn’t necessarily mean they can’t be effective starters in the future, but it stands to reason that the club might not be willing to bank on them.
Smith adds that the club spoke to the representatives of free agent lefty Jordan Montgomery, though it might be best not to read too much into that. For one, Montgomery is represented by Scott Boras, who also reps a great number of other players. Secondly, Breslow tells Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe that it’s fair to assume they will talk to every agent who represents a starting pitcher and every team that could trade one.
It seems all options are on the table, including players who received a qualifying offer. “It’s a consideration like the host of other variables that you need to consider when you make a decision around these players,” Breslow says in Smith’s report. “So I think we need to look at the totality of the situation in order to figure out how much of a consequence it is for one over another.” Blake Snell, Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola were the three traditional starters to receive QOs, as well as two-way player Shohei Ohtani, who won’t pitch in 2024. Signing one of those players would require the Red Sox to forfeit their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K of international bonus pool money, but it sounds like that’s not off the table.
Elsewhere, it sounds like the club is leaning towards adding a right-handed hitter who can play second base, though they won’t be strictly limiting themselves in that search. “I think positional versatility helps,” Breslow said, per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. “I don’t think it makes a ton of sense to kind of typecast that to a right-handed bat who can only DH. But I think we have to be open-minded about the ways to improve the team. Given that we’re pretty left-handed, it makes sense to set our sights on somebody who can hit right-handed.”
The club’s lineup does indeed skew to the left side, with regular at-bats slated for players like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida and Alex Verdugo, though Breslow earlier admitted that Verdugo’s name has come up in trade talks. Some righty bats include Teoscar Hernández and Jorge Soler, though the Sox might be a better fit for a second baseman than an outfielder. The market is fairly limited there but Whit Merrifield and Amed Rosario are a couple of right-handed bats that likely won’t cost much. Speaking of Casas and Duran, who both finished the season on the injured list, Breslow provided updates on the progression of both players to Abraham. Casas has progressed to weight-bearing exercises in his recovery from turf toe surgery. Casas, who was hampered by shoulder inflammation, has healed and is now close to starting a hitting program.
Catcher could theoretically be another place to add but it sounds like the Sox feel good about Connor Wong there. “Very comfortable,” Breslow said about Wong. “We feel good about the catching situation. That’s not to say that we should be closed-minded about opportunities to improve the team. But I think we’re all really happy with him.” Wong got the bulk of the playing time in 2023 and hit just .235/.288/.385 but there were some encouraging defensive grades. It doesn’t sound like an addition here is totally off the table but the pitching is clearly a bigger focus.
Every team is looking for the same thing. Not enough good talent to go around.
I came to say same thing…
Hit the like button then..
It’s going to be a bidding war for pitchers, the real winners are the free agent pitchers. They’ll be able to pick which team to go to.
Real winners? Include their agents too.
2B seems to be a hot ticket item this offseason. Not a single above average bat there amongst the FA
The Red Sox can’t look to find the next James Paxton or Michael Wacha this year. They need to swim in the deep end of the pool. Start by offering Yamamoto 10/$250M and buy their future ace. Then they can sign a lower level starter (Manea, Lorenzen, etc) or trade some prospects for another starter. Follow that up by signing a solid bullpen arm like Jordan Hicks and a veteran 2nd baseman for 2 years max (until Mayer & Yorke are ready). Finally, re-sign Duvall for 1-2 years and their offseason is complete!
Yes Dorothy exactly. No more treading water and looking for an “Innings eater.” We’ve got a couple of those already. We need Frontline starters and two or three of them.
I think it depends on what type pitching you need or will pay for. It’s an unusually deep pitching market with hitters more in demand that’s not typical. If you need maybe one top end guy and a mid rotation to back end starter that’s totally doable. Hitter needing teams may be willing to trade pitching for hitting also
Well duh! Really? No way? Starting pitching you say? Shaking my head. I’d love to see Teo and Merrifield signed too.
Whitlock is better in the pen. Sale is a toss-up you pencil in as a 6th arm – if he gives you something good, great, otherwise you really can’t expect too much right now… he really needs to be treated as if you were making a buy-low reclamation signing, albeit an extremely expensive one.
So, 2 solid rotation pieces, a lefty for the pen, and a couple depth options sounds about right.
GASox – Good to see you back, man! How you been doing?
I think Whitlock’s tremendous past success as a starting pitcher is the reason why Breslow doesn’t want to totally give up on him starting.
As for Sale, he pitched very well at the end of the season. I think he can have a 3.50-3.75 ERA season next year.
Hanging in there, thanks for asking…. actually just finished a trip back from umass worcester oncology. Those guys are good up there, they’re taking over and actually trying to manage other things they uncover, like chemo induced heart issues, they’re bringing in their own cardio docs up there, not making me find one, and, coordinating specialists. So, now I’ve got 3 docs up there, and, maybe adding a fourth lol.
Anyways, back to red sox baseball, as regards Whitlock, he was SO dominant in the high leverage slot, better than as a SP to be honest, and, I look at it like this: Whitlock as high-leverage was one of the best in baseball. For most top shelf closers of that ability, you’re paying $16-$20m/yr these days. So the question is, can you buy a SP for the same 16-20/yr money who performs equal or better than Whitlock as a SP? And, having already blown the elbow out once needing TJ, do you protect your asset better having him throwing less innings?
If they can get the SP to replace him on the open market, FA or trade, I’d be happy to see Garrett back in the pen.
GASox – Glad to hear you’re being treated well there. Did you fly in and out of the Worcester airport? I love tiny airports like that, only four gates.
As dominant as Whitlock was in relief, he was off the charts as a starter in 2018-2019 so if he can stay healthy he should be able to handle a starting role again IMO.
2.31 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in 191 innings? Yes please.
he was SO dominant in the high leverage slot
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Best wishes on the medical side. Betcha you’re learning more than you ever thought you’d need to know about medical issues.
On Whitlock, while completely acknowledging that a starter is normally more valuable than an RP, in Whitlock’s case, I think RP without even giving it much thought.
I still maintain he was our MVP in 2021. His ERA I believe was 1.06 when he pitched 1.1 IPs or more. He is an incredible weapon out of the BP, and quite frankly, a joy to watch.
Nope, made a marathon outta it. Hartford in and out, crisscrossed newport to western mass back and forth 6 times.
As for Whitlock, I wouldnt really say 2018-2019 were off the charts good. It was a-ball and some AA. And, in the AA portion of the billing he threw 10 IP in ’18 to a .84 era followed by a much larger sample size of 70 IP in ’19 at above a 3.xx era. So, that 190 IP is being heavily subsidized by a-ball performance.
If he *could* do that against major league competition? Sure, anyone wants that.
Whitlock and Houck need to be assign to the pen as soon as the Sox break camp. Anyone remember how we jerked around Daniel Bard amongst other by starting them one month then putting in the pen for two weeks, then back again. It’s a recipe for disaster. Give them a defined role and stick with it. Whitlock/Houck in the 6th and 7th, Martin in the 8th, then on to Jensen. It really means a lot to know what the team expects from you night after night for 162 games.
“It really means a lot to know what the team expects from you night after night for 162 games.”
Try telling that to cora
Joe – I gave you the thumb for two reasons! First, good to see you are no longer viewing WAR as the definitive gauge of a player’s value. Yes even though Whitlock was only 5th on the team for WAR, he could have been viewed as a team MVP candidate.
And the second reason, admitting you didn’t give Whitlock’s most suitable role much thought.
I have given it much thought. I’m fine with him as a reliever if Cora uses him for at least 70 innings. Anything less is a waste of talent, especially when you look at his history of starting games in the minors. But if he were to continue pitching in high leverage situations as a reliever, he needs to improve his K-rate. These days to be an effective reliever you need a double-digit K rate, Whitlock’s has declined each year down to just 9 per 9IP.
GASox – I know the real reason why you flew in and out of Hartford … you just wanted to visit your good friend Bobby V at his sports bar next to the airport.
That spectacular 2018 season was at the age of 21-22, which makes it even more impressive IMO.
His 2019 was very good, but not as dominant because he was suffering from an injury that led to his getting TJS in July of that year. His last game prior to the surgery was very bad, in fact a kid named Bobby Dalbec took him deep.
grnmt – Exactly! Defined roles are important for most players, they are creatures of habit. I’m all for the use of analytics and matchups and whatnot, but the psychological aspect should also be incorporated in managing. Many players have struggled when their role changed midseason.
good to see you are no longer viewing WAR as the definitive gauge of a player’s value.
I’m fine with him as a reliever if Cora uses him for at least 70 innings.
Whitlock’s has declined each year down to just 9 per 9IP.
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I have never used a single metric as a definitive gauge, not in BB, and not in real life. And I’ve never used WAR for RPs. For the record, I start with WAR as a general guide. That’s the smell test. Assuming that you pass the WAR test, for a pitcher, I usually go to K/W, K%-W%, pitch velocity, EV and CSW.
IRT to the 70 IPs, he had 73.1 in 2021, which is okay, but it is the timing of the usage which is more important. Cora’s BP usage was close to perfect in 2021. For Whitlock, I’d like to see him in the 6th inning in every tied game, or with a one-run lead in the more important games.
IRT to the K/9, your number is accurate, but incorrect. His OVERALL K/9 has declined, but only due to product mix. The “reliever” K/9 has increased from 9.9 to 10.1 to 11.3.
Fever – never gave it much thought, although, I think I saw something of his in the airport concourse… or an airport concourse anyways. If he runs a sports bar anything like he managed lately I bet the beer is skunked and they’ve got high turnover.
Joe – I gave you a thumb up, glad to hear you are no longer using WAR as a single metric definitive gauge.
My biggest issue with Cora is he can’t find a way to use his best relievers in critical situations despite him having a 13-man bullpen, it’s absolutely absurd. If Whitlock is pitching as well as he did in 2021, I want him in almost every game in which they have a lead in the 7th. As far as tied games, I think that should depend on several factors.
Your memory regarding 2021 is not good. So many instances where stiffs like Robles were put into high leverage situations, and he was awful. How bad? 1.060 OPS when he pitched with 2 outs and RISP.
As for Whitlock’s K rate, innings matter. For instance only 20 of his 70 innings this year were as a reliever. Nice try, can’t fool a veteran on Veteran’s Day. Haha!
GASox – Bobby actually owns two sports bars, his first one is in Stamford … not far from where he “invented the wrap”.
I’ve been to his airport location, actually saw Tommy Lasorda there shortly after the place opened.
I was hoping Breslow would realize that at this point both Houck and Whitlock belong in the bullpen.
Agreed. A dominant pen, good defense and a couple of true starters so the pen doesn’t get overused by July are what’s needed.
The 2024 Red Sox should not look too similar to the 2023 Red Sox if they want to be more than a .500 team.
Position changes include:
1 – New DH – Devers
2 – New 3B – TBD (Chapman, Candalaria or a trade)
3 = SP1 – TBD (Yamamoto)
4 – SP2 – TBD (Nola, Montgomery)
5 – New LF – Abreu
6 – New RF – Rafaela
7 – New C – Garver
8 – Lefty reliever – Hader
Still need to deal Yoshida for pitching prospects
I get RF in Fenway is almost like a CF position in terms of range and difficulty, but, any particular reason you don’t see Rafaela as the CF instead of the RF?
GA – I think he’s the best athlete and I like his arm. Duran for me is either CF or LF. Anthony has the least speed so I’m saving LF for Anthony. I’m looking at the future outfield so Anthony, Duran and Rafaela from left to right for under $3MM for the next several years!!!
That’s why I would love to see the Arenado for Devers deal happen so Boston can keep Yoshida at DH or replace him with Ohtani. The offense will be excellent with the changes AND the defense will jump to top 10 from bottom two. You upgrade the defense that much, guys like Yamamoto and Nola will want to pitch for a team with that defense behind them.
Trollfree, lot of good stuff here. On board with just about all of it.
Yoshida contract is not moveable at the moment. They’d have to eat most of the contract if they want any meaningful prospect return. Or get nothing as a salary dump. Can’t play OF and bat is weak at DH.
Yoshida only cost $$ and $15m x 4 is not immovable. I’d also look to deal Duran who in my view will never be a good outfielder either. Then re-sign Duvall to play with the kids. If Duran and Yoshida are dealt, AV could be kept but he too could be moved.
Yoshida only cost $$ and $18m x 4 is not immovable. I’d also look to deal Duran who in my view will never be a good outfielder either. Then re-sign Duvall to play with the kids. If Duran and Yoshida are dealt, AV could be kept but he too could be moved.
I like Duran in left he’s a true game changer with his speed and aggressiveness. He will be fine in left defensively. As long as he continues to hit line drives and use his wheels his energy is infectious.
My concern is whether last year was a high point that won’t be repeated. He could just as easily revert back to 22 at the plate and in the field. Selling high might be now.
Dewey I think if you dig more into the numbers there’s good reason to believe that Duran can be a impactful player moving forward.
By far Duran’s biggest asset is speed and aggressiveness but his underlying numbers last year when he abandoned the launch angle approach shows a hitter who hits a lot of line drives. He just needs to make hard line drive contact to be viable. That’s the biggest thing for him he also hits a lot of hard ground balls that are much more viable with the shift ending. I think Duran will be just fine moving forward.
Bruin1012 – Duran in LF makes absolutely no sense. He’s a center fielder and he has ZERO errors at the CF position. His speed is perfect for center field and LF needs to be for the slowest fielder. In Boston that will be Anthony so Abreu can be used as a placeholder until Anthony arrives.
Dewey – Why so negative on Duran? He kicked ass in the minors until COVID hit. Then he gradually got back in the swing of things after the long lay off and then Bloom brought him up too early. That’s not on him.
He went back down and got the prep work he should have gotten before being brought up and did great last year.
He’s done nothing wrong defensively. I’ve watched Verdugo look like a fool turning for fly balls but Duran does it when he first gets to Fenway and suddenly he’s incorrectly characterized as a bad fielder.
Duran’s fielding percentage in CF in the minors was .990 well over league average and he has yet to make an error in CF at the MLB level in 301 chances. That is outstanding, especially when you consider Devers has made 129 errors (that were counted)
The guy has NO ERRORS in 301 total chances in CF but has 1 error in just 34 chances in LF and 1 error in 17 chances in RF. No matter how you cut it, Duran is an excellent defensive center fielder and would be wasted in LF. I would suggest him for RF but we already have the next Mookie Betts slotted in RF, RAFAELA!!!
Give Duran a break he’s a helluva lot better than Verdugo defensively and he blows away Yoshida defensively so he is the premiere defender in the outfield until Rafaela joins him in right field.
Troll I have no problem with Duran in Center he improved he has taken better routes but he’s not Rafaela in center and Duran’s arm is more suited for left imo. I have said that if Verdugo is traded which is looking likely I like Abreu in right he has the far superior arm to Duran and he has the superior arm to Rafaela. I think Abreu is much more likely to hit then Rafaela especially initially and he can play right. He’s not spectacular in right defensively but he’s sneaky good athletically and he’s good defensively. I think there is a chance that Rafaela just won’t hit next year in the bigs, I think it’s much more likely that Duran continues to hit. My guess is what really happens is Verdugo is traded, Abreu with a solid spring gets right field, Duran man’s center, and they continue to go with Masa in left. In this scenario Rafaela continues to work on his approach at the plate in AAA Worcester. I see this as the most likely outcome.
roid – No offense but you must not follow the game to have such a ridiculously low assessment of Yoshida.
It’s common knowledge he simply wore out late in the season between the travel and the number of games he played, which was 140. As a comparison, Ohtani didn’t play in more than 106 games until his 4th season in the majors.
On July 26th Yoshida was batting .320 with an .887 OPS and you call that “weak”? Seriously?
Yeah his defense is poor, but LF is the least important position on the field. He’s not costing the team much by being out there, certainly no more than guys like Manny.
Agree. I’m expecting a full season of production out of Massa. Let the guy DH for a week now and again. Abreu is a capable outfielder when we use him in spots. Abreu needs another year of seasoning, but appears to have a good upside.
Regarding Massa’s defense, there were times when I was hoping he’d pull a Manny, hit the shortstop and let Story throw to the plate.
BeeCarbp = :Like Devers, Yoshida should burn his glove and admit his huge defensive limitations. Couple his lack of defensive skills and the numb skull manager who doesn’t bat him second, Yoshida’s value is worth about $5MM a year not $18MM. Trade him for whatever you can get for him and move Devers to DH to fix the defense so SPs will want to sign in Boston.
How long would we have to commit to garver? Teel could be legit
I think Garver is a great target. He’s a right handed bat who can DH and spell Wong defensively a couple of times a week if they decide to go that route. Unfortunately that would mean Masa plays left a lot more then you want him too and Duran plays center. It will be interesting to see which way Garver goes.
Bruin1012 – You don’t get Garver to spell a 80 OPS+ hitter. Wong can catch 30 or 40 games for Garver. Boston doesn’t need a DH so if Garver is gotten he will be the #1 catcher and Wong a minimal sub for Garver. To get him as a DH or part time DH is a Bloom move.
I see nothing wrong with Duran’s defense. He has no errors at the MLB level in 301 chances in CF. That’s 1 less than Devers had after his first ball was hit to him in 2017!!! Duran needs to be the CF for the foreseeable future with Rafaela in RF.
Yoshida can’t be allowed to use a glove if he stays with Boston. He’s a butcher and with Abreu ready to play for less than $1MM Yoshida is a complete waste of money unless he DHs and bats second in the order so the one thing he does right (OBP) can be most effectively used. He should bat behind Duran and they should use the hit and run daily..
Garver isn’t a full time catcher anymore he’s mostly a DH. If he caught 50 games it would be far more then he has in the last few years. He’s not suddenly going to be a full time catcher. If they don’t DH Yoshida I think Garver can be a good addition. I know you want Boston to DH or trade Devers but reality is it’s not happening. At this time it seems they are intent on leaving Yoshida in left and hoping he’s better defensively next year. If this happens then Garver makes sense he could spell Wong a couple days a week at catcher then DH the rest of the time. His pull heavy fly ball hard hitting should play very well at Fenway this is realistic in my point of view.
Duran is J Damon but he also takes as bad a route to the ball as I’ve ever seen. Bad routes and a dead arm are not attributes I’m looking for in a CFer.
Bruin1012
Garver isn’t a full time catcher anymore he’s mostly a DH.
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I think Garver is about a 0% chance of joining us. 41 starts as a catcher over the past two season makes him a DH. A .797 OPS over the past 4 years makes him a mediocre DH. Almost 33 makes him a declining player.
In 2022 Garver was injured, he was injured in April forearm flexor strain and tried to play through it. Ultimately he had to have surgery in July of that year that ended his year. If we throw out that obvious outlier he has been really good more of a .870 OPS type of guy whose metrics look like they work in Fenway. He is right handed hits ton fly balls hard and is a dead pull hitter perfect for Fenway. I think this is only viable if the idea is to continue sending Masa out in left and not making him the primary DH. I also agree there is no way he can be relied on to be an everyday catcher, if he ever was, he’s mostly a DH now.
Bruin1012 – Garver is NOT a fit. I had hoped he could be the front line catcher but as you mentioned he hasn’t done that. Heim for Texas won a gold glove so Garver was used primarily as a DH.
That’s the last thing this team needs.is yet another DH!!
Breslow should offer SF Yoshida for Patrick Bailey. While Wong was ranked 25th best catcher in 2023, Bailey was ranked 12th despite not hitting as well as he has in the minors. He was voted most valuable all-around defensive catcher and with the Red Sox bats, that’s what the pitching staff needs besides Devers being DH.
I mean is catcher really a need for Boston? Why would you use valuable trade chips on a catcher when one of your best prospects is a catcher and he’s not far away. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Teel up sometime this year he’s a line drive machine with elite pop times and overall a good defensive catcher. Wong is fine until Teel arrives. Wong is very athletic he’s good defensively from all accounts the pitchers like to throw to him the Red Sox have many more pressing needs. Perhaps another hitting coach can get him to stop chasing sliders and he improves at the plate either way he’s just a place holder for Teel.
Pool – 3 year deal with an option for year 4 makes sense to me.
I rescind the deal. Garver is too much DH and not enough catcher.
TF – I’m glad you didn’t mention Sonny Gray, that is one guy I wouldn’t touch with a ten foot pole. He proved to be soft when he couldn’t handle pitching for the Yankees, I doubt he would do any better pitching in Boston.
Fever – Not a Sonny Gray fan either. Completely agree. I really believe Breslow needs to make a big splash this week and sign Yamamoto to a 10 year $250MM contract. That takes the pressure off immediately and allows him to focus on his non-tenders, his necessary trade of Yoshida or Devers, and Hader. If you want to compete with the big dogs and your closer is nearly 40 and you need ONE lefty in relief the simple answer is Hader. Yamamoto and Hader would mean as many as 20 more wins in 2024.
The money is there for both deals but money can’t be wasted on Yoshida or Devers. Keeping Devers as the DH is my preference so trading Yoshida and Verdugo would be a real big move if Breslow can pull it off. If he can deal Devers and Yoshida then Ohtani comes onto our radar but that’s very unlikely.
Honestly, I haven’t been this excited about the Red Sox since the day before they fired DD!! I expected the 2020 team under DD would be fine and bounce back from the injuries and off years but the second they canned DD, my heart sunk and it hasn’t rebounded yet. All my merchandise is in storage waiting for Cora to be fired. After nearly 60 years of rooting for Boston, I am now just rooting for the individuals on the team but I’m pissed at the organization and I loath Cora for what he did without adequate punishment.
I’m not a Gray fan either but that was years ago. I doubt it matters today.
Dewey – Some pitchers just can’t handle the intense environment, like AJ Burnett.
Maybe Gray has changed, but not worth the gamble IMO.
TF – I haven’t been this excited about the Red Sox since October 28, 2018!
The 2019 ST debacle was the beginning of the downward cycle for me.
Maybe Gray has changed, but not worth the gamble IMO.
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Not to mention that:
1-We’d be buying high since 2023 far exceed his previous three seasons, and
2-While I don’t think he will age badly, he just turned 34.
Breslow needs to make a big splash this week and sign Yamamoto to a 10 year $250MM contract.
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It gives me a headache to think about paying him that much, but there is some logic to tackling the biggest piece first. The field is a lot larger trying to add a #2 or good #3 SP, and the rest of the moves are likely to be low-key.
Per MLBTR estimates:
Chapman $150M
Yamamoto $225M
Nola $150M
Garver $39M
Hader $110M
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Total: $674M
The the most money ever spent in an offseason. Sure that seems doable.
Dave372 – Who lists contract totals when evaluating the impact of adding players? The $674MM has no meaning. What matters is the amount against the luxury tax each year. That’s all.
Your list is meaningless since there are no lengths of contracts.
Boston can afford to spend $50MM a year on two new SPs to head up the starting staff. They can afford $20MM for Hader but I don’t think it will cost that much. Chapman at $18MM is also within the scope of what Boston can do this off season.
After further review, I’m taking Garver off the table in favor of trading Yoshida to SF for their catcher Bailey. It’s a salary dump that gets Boston and outstanding defensive catcher until Teel is ready. With all the hitting, having a smart, savvy catcher who can throw out runners is more valuable than a big bat.
See my detailed listing of the 2024 financials so you can see the available money and how it can best be used. Our holes are clear. Devers needs to move to fix the defensive problems along with trading Yoshida. Two workhorse #1/#2 type pitchers, a lefty reliever, a 3B and a 2B.
Plenty of money but they must be worth more than their cost which is something Bloom never accounted for despite promising it when he was first hired.
Since you think $674M “has no meaning”. Sure, to the guy not spending it, I suppose.
Let me try a different angle to show the ridiculousness:
You want the Red Sox to sign the 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th and 23rd best Free Agents in baseball. You do know players can go anywhere they want, and 29 other teams can bid for them, right?
Maybe youre right, maybe Red Sox go crazy and get this haul. but I’ll go out on a limb and say it will never happen.
Trollfree,
Kinda dig what you are saying with some modifications.: Trade some combination of Yoshida, Marcello Mayer and Duggie to Seattle for George Kirby and a good righty bat instead of picking up Nola/Montgomery. Anyway GET Kirby and a righty bat that can play a full time position. Seattle doesn’t sign expensive free agents and is looking for consistent hitters like Yoshida and Verdugo..That’s why Mayer may need to be a Mariner.
Seattle’s pitching aways is seemingly better than it really is because of the ballpark.
Yoshida is kinda pricey for SEA for what he brings to the table.
That said, NYY might be a decent fit. He’s a left bat which they need, and, the 18m/yr they can afford.
I like Masa to NYY. The Yanks have prospects. Masa at the Stadium ‘natural’ fit.
Droping $20M from that slot gets you a FA pitcher. With the Sox OF surplus it allows us to keep Duran and perhaps resign Duval as a RH bat. I like moving Raffy to benefit our Defense. IMHO I would give Rafaela a shot at third. He played some SS has a good arm. I would expect some challenging time adjusting but with 30 Spring games it gives him time. Having the extra OF slots keep Duran in the lineup. We know how good Duran is can you imagine the havoc Rafaela and Duran could cause in the daily lineup. One thing you can’t teach is speed!
madmc44 – Great suggestion about Rafaela. Cannon for an arm and he can’t be worse than Devers!! Heck you are probably better than Devers!!
Here is the line-up I’m hoping for:
Duran CF
Rafaela 3B (loved your suggestion)
Devers DH
Teoscar Hernandez RF (FA RF not 3B)
Casas 1B
Story SS
Abreu LF
Bailey C (trade Yoshida for Bailey)
Merrifield 2B (FA with big time speed)
This alternative line-up looks pretty good too. I’m not convinced that Story has any issues with his arm so flip flopping Rafaela and Story also might make sense because Story can play 3B and Rafaela might have more range at SS..
Mayer rusted a little even if it was a shoulder issue. Yoshida and Verdugo may fit with what Mariners are looking for at the moment. But I find it hard to believe they’d ever part with Kirby. I could see Gilbert but I don’t think they need to go all in yet. DiPoto is fairly crafty when finding guys.
A lot of people on another site want George Kirby as well but that’s not going to happen. It would take Casas, Duggie and a good prospect to even peak Seattles interest. Kirby threw 190 innings after only 130 the year before he’s a true ace and he walks no one he’s going to be better next year he’s not going to get traded.
Bruin1012 – I agree the chances of getting Kirby are low and like most teams they will offer lesser pitchers to get the guys we mentioned.
I’m still a big fan of the DD way of building winners.
1 – We home grow an outfield that has rising stars .
2 – We buy pitching that is ONLY top end. None of the crap Bloom purchased.
3 – Move your worst fielder to DH – DEVERS hands down.
4 – Alternate cheap home grown and expensive purchased players throughout the 26 man roster!!
INEXPENSIVE TALENT – 18 players – 10 Hitters and 8 pitchers
LF – Abreu until Anthony is ready (<$1MM
CF – Duran (<$1MM)
RF – Rafaela (<$1MM)
1B – Casas (<$1MM)
2B – Whitfield ($6.5MM)
C – Garver ($10MM – borderline expensive)
Back-up Catcher – Wong (<$1MM)
Back-up Middle Infielder – Valdez (<$1MM)
Back-up Corner Infielder – Dalbec (<$1MM)
Back-up Outfielder – TBD
SP3 – Bello (<$1MM)
SP4 – Houck (<$1MM)
SP5 – Crawford (<$1MM)
Stress Inning – Whitlock ($4.7MM)
Long Relief – Pivetta ($7.5MM)
Righty Late Relievers – Martin ($6.7MM) and Winckowski ($1MM)
Lefty Late Reliever – Bernardino (,$1MM)
EXPENSIVE TALENT – 8 players – 3 hitters and 5 pitchers
DH – Devers ($29.2MM)
SS – Story until Mayer arrives ($23.3MM)
3B – Replacement for Devers (TBD)
SP1 – Yamamoto (estimate $25MM)
SP2 – Nola or Montgomery ($25MM or $19MM)
SP6 – Sale ($25.6MM)
Lefty late reliever – Hader ($18MM)
Closer – Jansen ($16MM) Last year of contract
So the 2024 Roster will be split 18 inexpensive players and 8 expensive players all totaling under the CAP.. The expensive players will cost roughly $162.1MM not counting the new 3B. The inexpensive players will cost $45.4MM for a total of $207.5MM.
The 2024 CAP is $237MM so we have roughly $30MM left over to get a 3B and a 4th outfielder after picking up Yamamoto, Nola, Hader, and Merrifield!!! Breslow has the money to make this team great in 2024.
Yoshida must be moved and Verdugo must be non-tendered or moved to make this roster work. Urias and McGuire need to be non-tendered as well.
George Kirby is not for sale!
George Kirby is not for sale!
=======================
Most trade proposals for star players are fantasies. If one wants to fantasize about obtaining a star, you have to look at rebuilding teams, or small market teams that can no longer afford one of their players.
TB probably cannot afford Glasnow.
The WS need to move Cease to rebuild.
No one else has a star pitcher that they will be motivated to move.
The mariners value their cost controlled young pitching very highly. If you want Kirby, you better give us your best hitter that’s under a similar amount of club control.
Joe – I agree. Kirby not likely to move. Glasnow not likely to stay in the AL East in my opinion. Not a big fan of Cease but he will be a heck of a lot cheaper after his miserable 2023. Four out of five bad years doesn’t motivate me to want him. His ONE good year was outstanding but it’s hard to assume that’s his norm rather than the other years where he wasn’t any better than what we have right now.
Space – I like your thinking. Kirby is not a likely guy for Seattle to trade because they probably don’t value Mayer like Boston fans do. Mayer is less valuable than Anthony at this point based on performance so Yoshida, Verdugo and Anthony might get Boston Kirby and Suarez (moving Devers to DH).
That would be an excellent deal. I would hate to lose Anthony but Kirby looks to be pretty special. We’d still have Mayer in case he does turn out to be better than he’s performed so far.
Seattle’s OF of the future would be Anthony, J Rodriguez and Kellenic. That would be pretty incredible and they have the pitching depth to upgrade their hitting this much because Yoshida would be a nice upgrade at DH from Mike Ford. Verdugo would have a year to play while they wait for Anthony. It sounds like a win-win to me.
Kelenic ain’t really a building block outside of team control. I wouldn’t be surprised if they used him to bring in some key pieces.
Like I said any Kirby deal starts with Casas and goes from there. It’s just not realistic.
When you finish in last place in your division everyone should be available for the right return. Casas, is still only a prospect. Would you trade Kirby for Mookie? Do you think the Dodgers would? The Q is would Seattle make that deal?
FWIW Baseball Trade Values gives Eugenio Suarez alone more value ($8.2 million) than Alex Verdugo ($5 million).
At BTV the package of Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida and Roman Anthony totals $46.2 million in surplus value and the package of George Kirby and Suarez $106.8 million.
The proposed trade is not realistic.
Muskie73 – When discussing future values nobody is right they are just guesses. You might want to find a new reference for your trade values since the numbers you presented were ridiculous.
Clearly, your site isn’t familiar with Anthony or they don’t acknowledge his upside potential. Next, Kirby is WAY over rated considering his history. Is this a local Seattle website you are referencing? Are these guys familiar with baseball?
Your numbers are so atrociously wrong it’s not worth discussing. First, you don’t consider the needs of either team in the evaluation. Also, to dismiss Anthony is a gross oversight.
Kirby and Anthony are the two best players in the deal. The rest are slightly above league average. Kirby is 26 years old on Feb 4th with two years of experience at the MLB level and no TJ surgeries yet while throwing in the upper 90s. Two of the next five years will be lost to TJ surgery.
Anthony will turn 20 on May 18th (6 years younger) and has played 126 minor league games at four levels in 2 years with a .277/.399/.450/.849.
His highest level so far is AA where he produced .343/.477/.543/1.020 as a 19 year old. That makes him a candidate for 2025 as a starting outfielder in either Boston or Seattle. He is controlled through 2032. ROTOWIRE who evaluates prospects on performance has him 11th as a 19 year old. He’s lesser known than the 10 in front of him but not for long.
Clearly your service hasn’t done their homework on him. Also, you didn’t mention Yoshida’s value individually or Anthony’s. I like what they think about Verdugo and Suarez. I’m curious how they see Yoshida and Anthony.
Most serious baseball fans are familiar with the widely cited Baseball Trade Values website:
baseballtradevalues.com/
Feel free to read about its methods and history. It’s never too late to learn.
Muskie73 – Know the site. Think it’s horse crap. Apparently you must be associated with it somehow otherwise you’d agree.
That’s fine that you believe in it just don’t ask others to be deceived by faulty evaluations. Modern quantification of information is done in a vacuum. WAR and all the new bogus simulation numbers have so many wrong assumptions that don’t apply to the individual player that it’s not surprising a novice would buy into it along with a site like the one you suggested.
Hey, if you like it. That’s your call but you might want to reconsider talking down to far more knowledgeable baseball fans than you.
Seattle won’t trade George Kirby (and reportedly is in the market for a righthanded bat).
I hear a tiny bit of Dave Dombrowsji in Breslows words. Wouldn’t we be lucky to have a boss that tells you exactly what he is going to do & does it? Yep! We need two starting pitchers. A second baseman, a right fielder w/ power, a good defensive left fielder that hits from the right side. Anything wise I’m I missing DD? I don’t think so! Now go get it Craig! Sheesh!
I do like that Breslow is coming out and talking about the needs being very transparent. I would love to see him be proactive and sign someone very quickly. Bloom seemed to dink and dunk around until all the best players were signed he had paralysis by analysis. Be decisive Breslow go get your pitchers and do it fast. You can never have two many pitchers.
Cora says that all three of Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock will be stretched out I’m assuming that’s with the current roster construction. If they add a couple of legit starters then hopefully Houck and Whitlock go to the pen keep Crawford in the rotation he was pretty good in that role and got better as the season progressed.
Cmon Breslow do your DD impression strike fast and hard.
The only reason to stretch out Houck and Whitlock would be to make them taller. Neither one belongs in a major league rotation.
Rmullig2 – Wow that was over the top. Lets just say. WRONG and leave it at that. Apparently backing up your bizarre comments with reasons doesn’t fit your agenda of spouting out trash and walking away.
Houck is best in the rotation and Whitlock has been stellar getting starting pitchers out of a jam without letting inherited runners score. Both Houck and Crawford are better starting pitchers who have a greater upside for eating innings than Whitlock has shown. He seems to love the pressure of the stress inning reliever and he was good at it so why not continue to use him there instead of forcing him into the rotation? The team needs many SPs that can throw 150 or more innings. The two acquisitions and Bello, Houck and Crawford give the team the best chance for achieving that goal. Sale is simply a bonus if he is healthy but we should only count on him for periods of time as a fill-in starter or late inning reliever against lefties.
I know that there are stats out there regarding Houck’s performance the second and third time through the lineup. He just doesn’t seem to be a guy that gets us to the sixth or seventh with a lead. I believe Houck and Whitlock can be Thunder and Lightning in the sixth and seventh bailing out Pavetta, Crawford and Bello.
BeeCarbo – You must hang out with Bruin1012. Wow the whole generalization of Houck dropping off between the 2nd and 3rd time through the order is so over played. As I’ve explained many times to Bruin1012, the drop off can not be ONE SIMPLE THING GOING WRONG. In other words, if there is a drop off in one game and not in the next, does your theory hold true? No, because pitching isn’t that simple. If it was everyone would do it.
Think about all the factors that go into the sequences of each at bat.
First, someone builds an attack plan for each batter. The team of people who create the plan use past data and their knowledge of the pitcher’s stuff. They estimate what will play and what won’t and build a plan for not just the first at bat by a hitter but at least 3 at bats by each hitter.
So when you look at Houck getting hit the third time through how do you know where the problem is as an outsider? Did someone suggest the wrong approach for the third time through the order? Did Houck not locate his pitches well? Did Houck’s pitches not have the movement they had earlier in the game? Did the catcher set-up incorrectly? Did the wind change directions making his pitches break differently? Does he sweat more later in the game so the ball is harder to grip?
Arm chair pitching evaluators don’t have the answers to definitively say what you are saying. It’s a valid observation but it may not be his fault. That will be up to Breslow to figure out and fix.
Troll you know the great thing about baseball is it’s such a numbers and stats game and those are hard to argue with.
First the good news after taking a deep dive into Houck’s starting numbers there just isn’t enough evidence to backup the third time through the lineup on Houck because Cora just went let him go there. I believe Cora takes out his starters too soon and goes to the bullpen to fast so we agree at this.
The bad news for Houck is he has a second time through the lineup problem and there is empirical evidence of this. Baseball Reference has some pretty good tools here in the last couple of years he’s really good the first time through the lineup In 2022 and 2023 he had a sops(starters ops with lower being better) of 76 and 80 respectively. The second time through the lineup it was 118 and 105 respectively. This is a larger drop off then most decent starters. Elite starters show very little difference 1st, 2nd, or 3rd time through.
The reality with Houck is that while their is some evidence of this drop off enough to look into it further there’s not a ton of data. Perhaps someone can look into how much his fastball velocity drops the second time through perhaps his slider doesn’t break as much I haven’t found that information yet but in order to really tell if this guy can be a viable starter this information needs to be gleamed.
Maybe, time permitting I will go back and watch all his starts and see if I see a noticeable dip in velocity on his fastball or the movement on his slider. I guess what I’m saying is we know he is great the first time through an order an even better when he’s a reliever and goes one or two innings so if the Red Sox get a couple more starters say they sign Yamamoto and trade for Burnes two clearly better starters then I think he just might be the odd man out based on how well he did as a reliever. I will concede that while there is some evidence a much larger subset of data would along with pitch characteristics would be very helpful in evaluating Houck.
Bruin – I’m not surprised about Breslow, as brilliant people tend to be candid and blunt. We see that all the time from guys like Elon.
That’s true Fever, I see it all the time in my former field. They recognize the time/value of money, and, time spent on bluster and dithering isnt productive, doesn’t add to the bottom line.
I’d love to get Soto and/or Ohtani but I think there might be too much lefty lean at that point. Especially if we consider our top two prospects are all lefty bats.
Bloom does not approve of this headline.
This is a huge off-season for Mr. Breslow.
We have a full rotation of question marks at SP.
Terrible defense behind that questionable rotation and a subpar bullpen relying on old timers Kensley Jansen and Chris Martin to anchor it. Saying we need pitching is an understatement.
Some of the moves I’ve thought of as an armchair GM:
Trade Verdugo and Pivetta to the Braves for Vaughn Grissom and a throw in minor league arm.
Trade Yoshida to the Mariners for a young arm or two.
Target Mitch Garver to DH/Platoon with Wong, Bring Duvall back, and go all in on the Yamamoto pursuit.
Hopefully this staff does what Bloom set out to do, which is build sustainable success. Not only does this team have the means to be big players in free agency but our development of our young guys needs an overhaul and a lot of attention. I’m cautiously optimistic. Let’s go Craig.
NYSoxFan – The farm system just produced Casas, Duran, Houck, Bello, Crawford and you think it needs to be overhauled? You related to Bloom? Tearing down things that were outstanding was his forte and you seem to be on the same page with him about a strong farm system that DD left Bloom.
Also, more Bloom-like thinking….. You want Garver as a DH when we have Devers, Yoshida vying for the spot already? The defense can’t take Devers or Yoshida playing in the field. Trade one and move the other to DH. Garver is the #1 Catcher if he comes to Boston so we don’t have to play Wong too much. I can’t handle his 80 OPS+ and all the people that don’t know the stats so they think he is good. He sucks at hitting. His peak career goal should be back-up catcher on a weak team. Once Teel is ready, hopefully, he will be gone and quickly forgotten like Downs and Verdugo in the near future.
Cautiously optimistic means a WC berth in 2024 and a game or two in the second round.
Wong’s workload was absurd during the McGuire injury, as the Sox simply did not have trust in any of their third catcher candidates. Aside from the all star break and the team’s two days off during the following period, Wong did not get a full day off from June 18 through July 17. There were two 1-run wins during that stretch where Wong was brought in as a defensive replacement in the ninth. That’s a little thing, but an indictment of the team’s depth nonetheless. Most teams don’t have two solid catchers, let alone three, but not trusting your depth option *defensively* to close out a game while the starter rests is a yellow flag imho.
Wong was awful in September and I wouldn’t be surprised if part of that was the workload catching up to him.
rhswanzey – You are too kind to Wong. He is a below league average catcher and was ranked 6th on the LAD depth chart when the brilliant Bloom STOLE him!! hahaha
Boston needs to sign a catcher to start for 3 years until Teel is ready. Wong is and never will be more than a bad back-up catcher on a good team. He likely will finish his career in KC or PIT as the back-up.
Connor Wong through Aug 31: .248/.303/.405 with a 1.92 pop time
That’s not a top 5 catcher nipping at Realmuto and Murphy’s heels… there’s absolutely no way that isn’t a credible, solid starting catcher.
rhswarzey – Any time you must frame a set of data to make it look good rather than taking the full set of data you lose credibility in what you are trying to prove.
Wong is and always will be a back-up catcher. He can’t hit adequately at the MLB level. He ranked 25 among starting catchers in 2023. If you want to compete for a playoff spot or even a Division Title your catcher has to be much better than Wong. He was 6th on the LAD depth chart for a reason!!
Are the Sox interested in re-signing Justin Turner? Or is the plan to DH Yoshida primarily?
I seriously doubt it. They have plenty of other internal possibilities for DH. My guess is going by the contract and buyout, there was always the intent it would be a one year deal.
Bello has got talent, wouldn’t call him an ace but his stuff has potential to be a serious front end starter. But he still needs time to grow. Pivetta has been a great inning eater from the pen and should stay there, possibly get creative an pair him with another starter who can’t be relied on for a ton of innings (cough cough Sale). Crawford looks like a guy who will occasionally give you a great start but will overall be a solid back end starter, Then there’s Sale… I’ll be happy to get 50 decent innings out of him. Best value for him at this point is to see if any team is willing to take him and give anything in return if Boston eats his entire salary… still not holding out hope for that case.
Beyond that, a lot of question marks… But hey, there were even more question marks at the start of the season last year and our staff wasn’t the worst I’ve ever seen in Boston. Just hoping Henry let’s Breslow do what needs to be done.
Curious to see what a Verdugo trade addresses – are we talking a SP like Keller, or infielder like India? If it’s the first scenario then they need one of Yamamoto or Montgomery. Done see them bucking up for a Yammy AND Nola, & I’d steer clear of SD FA starter (except Lugo as a #4th sp)
I’d go for India in a heartbeat, but doubt Cincy would. India feels like the odd man out in the IF construct, and injury-prone, but he still has three years of control left.
Still doable, but it might take more than Verdugo.
“Casas has progressed to weight-bearing exercises in his recovery from turf toe surgery. Casas, who was hampered by shoulder inflammation, has healed and is now close to starting a hitting program.”
A new rock group called Casas Casas?
Starters don’t last more than 4 innings so not worth the cash. Better to build a strong bullpen and do bullpen days each game. Guys that can go 2 or 3 innings and not trying to throw their arm out each pitch but actually know how to pitch.
Old York – Did you just fly in from Tampa? What an incredibly bizarre perspective on pitching. Starters like Eovaldi didn’t pitch 3 innings but Bloom let him go. Your generalization is not applicable to starting pitchers. You’ve pigeon-holed the entire group into a below league average group of starters.
There are plenty of guys who can be workhorse pitchers and we need two of them.
Sign Nola, Maeda, Robert Stephenson and trade Verdugo for another solid reliever. Bring back Duvall for one more year, and bring in a solid defensive catcher like Caratini.
I’ve seen a couple people suggest a blockbuster with the Padres to bring back Soto and Bogaerts for a haul of prospects, and while I find that to be an interesting idea, I find it both highly unlikely and also probably not the wisest move. The farm is the strongest it’s been in years, and turning around and emptying it out for one year of Soto and an overpaid Bogaerts who never should have been let go to begin with doesn’t seem like the best move to me.
I don’t know about packaging soto/Bogey together, but, if you swung a deal for Bogey alone, with SD paying the backend of the contract, it’d be worth considering.
Pay full-freight on him for the next few years, and gradually make SD pay the check as the contract ages till they pay full value the last few years.
Meanwhile, sox fix 2b by putting story back, ss with Bogey, and after a year or two you slide Devers to DH, Bogey to 3B, and if, IF Mayer can pans out he can try to take SS unless someone else in the rising IF prospects can grab it and make it their own instead
GASox – As much as I like Xander, I think that ship has sailed.
Story is the better defensive SS and I’d like to see how Xander can handle a different position before bringing him back.
With Rafaela already on the big league club, and Mayer/Yorke knocking on the door very soon, it’s a crowded infield. I don’t want to lose Duran.
HBan22 – Why so cheap? You are thinking like Bloom. It’s not your money. The CAP is $237MM and the owners make over $300MM in profits.
SPEND THE MONEY ON REAL TALENT LIKE DD DID.
To not be a .500 team you must think big since Bloom tossed aside 5 all-star quality players that now need to be replaced.
Yamamoto and Nola or Montgomery are simply two high end alternatives that Boston can afford. Hader can transition to the long term closer as Kenley moves to a rocking chair after 2024. Merrifield give the team speed at the bottom of the order before Duran at the top of the order. A new 3B who can actually field will motivate SPs to come to Boston because as long as Devers plays third it will be hard to sign SPs knowing he makes 50 misplays each season and the score keepers pick and choose which ones to count.
The Farm System has been great for years. It’s not better than it was because many of the talented players have recently graduated but we still have guys like Anthony on the way. Bloom’s picks haven’t blossomed (not a surprise to me) but hopefully guys like York and Mayer will eventually be good players in the MLB.
There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON to spend any prospects to get players. We need to dump Yoshida or Devers in trade along with Verdugo and everyone else can be non-tendered so Breslow can acquire:
1 – Yamamoto
2 – Nola
3 – Hader
4 – Merrifield
5 – Chapman/Candalaria/trade for a 3B
6 – Garver
That’s all we need to win 95 or more games in 2024 and stay under the CAP.
I’m in on Caratini. I just read that the whole Milwaukee team is on the block after Counsell jumped ship.
I’ve seen a couple people suggest a blockbuster with the Padres to bring back Soto and Bogaerts for a haul of prospects,
==========================
SD would have to be sending us prospects if they want to move Bogaerts. No one is taking that contract.
Joe – I’d send them Dever straight up for Bogaerts. Devers will fade much faster than Bogaerts.
In SEAGER – A ranger fan. I’m sure it sounds fair to you!!! hahaha Not to Red Sox fans. Boston doesn’t need Gray. They need a SP1 and SP2. They have plenty of bottom of the rotation guys. Duran is a potential all-star in 2024. Can you say that about Gray? With a straight face.
Jarren Duran is a 27-year-old who this year posted an outlier season of 2.4 fWAR and 120 wRC+. FanGraphs and Steamer project Duran with 2024 WAR and wRC+ of 1.4/1.5 and 98, respectively:
fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/24617/stats?pos…
Duran has value but it’s limited.
muskie73 – Seriously. You need to lose Fangraphs. Worst info around. It leads non baseball minds to think impossible things about players.
Fangraphs has no more idea of what Duran will do in 2024 than you or I do. It’s all a faulty simulation game they play. The best they can do is say the probability of Duran being better in 2024 than 2023 is this much. The odds of them being right is about 50/50 so what did you gain by reading their insane projections? Nothing. You know absolutely the same thing you knew before you read their garbage. NOTHING because the future is NOT KNOWN.
Think for yourself instead of reading garbage from Fangraphs or Statcast. Unless you have a better understanding of statistics and how certainty differs from probability you will constantly believe things that are NOT true.
Their guesses may not be better than your guesses on how well a player will play the next season. Study the players, their REAL numbers and put away all the estimates made by baseball sites that sell estimations as facts. Their numbers are all guesses, even when they look at historical data. Why? Because the formulas they use are normalized and don’t apply to individuals.
Jarren Duran did not have an outlier season. If you actually understand his history you will see that he played at Long Beach State as a 2B who hit roughly .300 with a good eye but not much power. He was an excellent base stealer.
Dombrowski took him in the 7th round in 2018 when the Red Sox were winning a world series and he hit .348 and .367 at Low A and A ball that year. In 2019 he started in Hi-A and hit .387 at age 22. He went to AA later that summer and hit .250. Then COVID hit and he played a handful of games out of country during 2020. In 2021, he was prematurely promoted to AAA after not mastering AA in 2019. AAA pushed him and he held his own but didn’t excell like he did at the other levels since he should have been in AA. Blame Bloom for that screw-up. To make things worse he got 33 games at the MLB level that same year despite struggling in AAA. He did not do well as one would expect. In 2022, Duran started in AAA and got promoted a bit too early once again due to the horrible performance of the 2022 club. Again, his performance with his premature arrival in the majors was not good. Both 2021 and 2022 should have been AAA years until he hit .300 at that level like he did at all other levels.
In 2023 he was finally ready for MLB pitching and it showed in his numbers. 102 games with a .295 average, .346 OBP which means his walk rate is average, his SLG was .482 making his isolated power .187 which is a reflection of him being a speedster not a power guy. His 24 stolen bases out of 26 attempts puts him roughly in the top 35 base stealers. He made no errors in CF in 301 chances so his defense was excellent.
So will his numbers go up, down or stay the same? Nobody knows for sure. I believe he will continue to improve just like he did when he played in college and when he broke into the lower level of the minors.
He may not be a big home run hitter but his speed will make him dangerous and help the batters hitting behind him.
Sonny Gray is a good idea.
The Sox should be thinking of moving Hanley to perhaps the D’back’s for perhaps his last season and move Martin, a strike-thrower, to closer with Whit and Houck as set-up and Bernardino , Schreiber, Winck, Murphy, Kelly, and others. as set-up.
mad – Hanley would have to come out of retirement and sign with the Red Sox before they could move him to the DBacks.
madmc44 – Recognize there will be 13 pitchers on the roster. 6 will be starters.
1 will be a long reliever. 1 likely will be the stress inning guy.
2 lefty set up men and 2 righty set up men and a closer.
I think you listed a lot of guys who shouldn’t make the cut but could stay on the 40 man roster in the minors.
SPs – TBD, TBD, Bello, Houck, Crawford and Sale
Long Relief – Pivetta
Stress Inning – Whitlock
Righty relievers – Martin and Winckowski
Lefty relievers – TBD and Bernardino
Closer – Jansen
13 pitchers with the rest in AAA or below
I am hoping they pick up Hader so Jansen can retire after 2024 and we’ll still have a proven closer. Martin may retire after 2024 too but could be extended if his 2024 is good. Same for Jansen but he’s really old.
Duran had the turf toe, not Casas
Pete – I remember decades ago the Red Sox had another outfielder with all sorts of injuries … turf toe, sprained knee, arm laceration, and a pulled glute.
If I recall correctly, his name was Tony Armas.
Please sign Marcus Stroman sincerely Brian Cashman ️
Red Sox offered Eovaldi a 51m 3 year deal last year so I can’t really fault them but damn that is such a bad look to have him leave via free agency and put up the dominate type postseason he just had. I think Breslow does get the green light to spend big on at least 1 starter possibly 2 since it doesn’t look like Whitlock will pan out in the rotation.