Nov. 21: The Red Sox have now formally announced the hiring of Bailey as their new pitching coach.
Nov. 14: The Red Sox are close to an agreement with Andrew Bailey to become the team’s new pitching coach, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (X link). Assuming the deal is completed, the 39-year-old will head back to a place where he pitched from 2012-13.
Bailey’s stint in the Sox’s bullpen overlapped with that of Boston’s first-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. The two-time All-Star pitched parts of eight seasons from 2009-17 before moving into the coaching ranks. He spent two years with the Angels before taking over as Giants pitching coach going into 2020. Bailey held that role in San Francisco for four seasons.
Along the way, he quickly built a reputation as one of the game’s better pitching minds. The Mets attempted to interview Bailey for a bench coach vacancy in 2022, but the Giants refused permission. His contract expired at the end of the ’23 campaign, however. Bailey has looked for opportunities closer to his home in the Northeast. He attracted interest from the Marlins and interviewed for the bench coach vacancy with the Yankees yesterday. The Giants subsequently tabbed Bryan Price when it became clear Bailey wasn’t returning to the Bay Area.
Bailey will replace Dave Bush, who was dismissed as Sox’s pitching coach at the beginning of the offseason. He takes over a staff that isn’t too dissimilar from the ones he managed in San Francisco. The Giants had a very flexible approach to pitcher usage, frequently deploying openers and bullpen games around top starter Logan Webb (who developed into a high-end arm during Bailey’s tenure). Boston has a number of talented multi-inning arms but is lacking in certainty on the starting staff.
Brayan Bello tailed off in the second half. Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have flashed but generally found more success in relief. Nick Pivetta has been inconsistent, although he’s coming off the most dominant few months of his career to close the 2023 campaign. Chris Sale has battled myriad injury issues. Breslow and his front office will surely bring in more stability with a veteran addition or two. They’ll hope Bailey can help coax another level out of their in-house options.
Excellent
Breslow is off to a great start. Nabbing Bailey as pitching coach is a highly underrated move as is the trade with Seattle to get a controllable, above average middle reliever for Urias, who was a definite DFA candidate.
Now it’s time to start adding more starting pitching to the team and round out the IF/OF roster. Can’t wait to see what’s next!
Good I guess … Did Cora approve?…
I think that if Breslow can greatly improve the pitching and somewhat improve the defense, Cora will begin to find himself without losing protection from ownership.
Time to see how he handles the pressure of not having Bloom or coaches to blame. Gotta think he will be looking over his shoulder to see how close Tek is lol
Hopefully he coaches the Sox better than he pitched…
DBH – I don’t think Cora will feel any pressure, knowing if he’s relieved of his managerial duties he will get kicked upstairs. He is one cocky dude.
Did you see Cashman publicly blaming himself for this year’s Yankees struggles?
Not Cora, instead he was like “Give me better players”.
Not Cora, instead he was like “Give me better players”.
==========================
That’s the classic “chicken or the egg” conundrum. Did he get enough out of the players, or were the players not good enough?
He will lose his protection has soon as Henry decides he wants to play at the big stakes table. If Henry doesn’t approve any spending, it won’t matter too much what Breslow of Cora do.
If Henry puts another $50M on the table to sign YY and trade for Glasnow, then Cora has to win 90.
Joe – Years ago I created a methodology to help determine the quality of the manager and his coaching staff.
I look at each player who was relatively healthy throughout the season, and compare their performance with recent prior years under a different manager. If they performed better, I give credit to the manager. If they perform worse, I give blame to the manager.
It’s a system that is very similar to what I used to prove 2021 wasn’t a “fluke” as some people here claimed. I looked at each individual player’s numbers for that season, and nearly all of them were similar or better to prior years.
Henry will open his wallet, guaranteed. Trade for Glasnow? Nah, if I’m trading for a SP it’s Burnes. But I’d rather just sign two SP’s from the MLBTR Top 50 Free Agent List than give up talent for a rental.
Glasnow gets hurt too often, and the Rays won’t trade within the division unless they get a steal in return.
Aaron Nola, Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha
Joe – I agree but I still don’t believe Cora will be back and Fever you have to be on drugs to think he’s getting kicked upstairs. The phrase is “TO THE CURB”!!!
Why hire a GM if he’s not going to be a GM? Ownership already saw that fail miserably and it hurt the value of their organization. Unless Cora has pictures of Henry or someone Henry cares about I see absolutely no way they can continue with the felon. He simply has to go to attract big time free agents.
Cora’s contract is PAPER. It can be torn up and he can be dismissed without any concerns except owing him some money and owing Red Sox Nation for embarrassing them by hiring a convicted cheater.
Lets focus on the good not the bad. Half the trash has been thrown out so lets not concern ourselves with the remaining trash, we have deadlines coming up so trades need to be made and non-tenders need to occur.
It’s funny how everyone has all these great plans in their head when a new GM is hired. With Dombrowski, they came to fruition and with Bloom it was smoke and mirrors. Will Breslow be effective or another Bloom, that’s the question that should be on everyone’s mind.
Fever – After reading your last comments all I can do is ask “What have you done with my friend Fever?”
Now you are creating methodologies for determining the value of a manager? Seriously? That’s insane. The manager’s impact isn’t on the players, it’s on the culture. You don’t go 1 for 3 vs 2 for 3 because of the manager. That’s crazy talk.
Then you asked if Henry will open his wallet? It’s never been closed we just had a really, really bad GM who didn’t seek quality players for big bucks. He did it the TB way and failed.
Glasnow is not likely to be traded to a rival in the division.
Burnes is a quality pitcher that will cost prospects.
Why not just go into Free Agency and buy two SPs? Burnes will be a FA in a year and command even more money than guys like Nola and Yamamoto!!! Wouldn’t it be smarter to take the big hit while we have the money. Who knows how much Devers, Story, Yoshida will be albatrosses on the 2025 payroll. None of them will be easy to dump.
Fever please no more talk about Cora, it’s been a pleasant off season and nobody should have to deal with the devil before Christmas!!
TF – Doesn’t the culture impact the performance of the players? Doesn’t the manager get involved in strategy against opposing pitchers? Doesn’t the manager motivate his players to do well because baseball involves psychology and mental wellness?
Oh Henry’s wallet definitely had been closed for a while. Until Story signed last year, the largest contract given out since 2019 was Kike’s $14M in 2021! And did you see how much the team payroll has dropped this year?
I want Yamamoto more than anything!! Second choice is Snell.
Speaking of Devers, did you see he got MVP votes!!!!!! One vote actually. Haha!
Great point about Cora, let’s hope he’s not mentioned until next year …. unfortunately that’s unlikely though.
TF – Please don’t confuse what I want with what I think will happen! Haha!
Cora eventually wants to work in the front office, and apparently ownership and management have interest in that happening. If it gets him out of the dugout and he’s not making player personnel decisions, I say do it. Haha!
@Fever,
Imagine 3 time buckets.
Players in prime, past, and before.
Often, teams fit into one of these buckets also.
Top winning teams, mostly win because they have better players, and players in their prime.
Thus better performance thus better results.
Players in their prime produce on average better results than other times in their career, yes?
So those teams, those managers, wouldn’t it stand, to have better performance from the players compared to their careers?
These managers, in your system would be rated higher.
What could often show poor managers with your results, could be teams that bring in players at the tail end of their career. (Past their prime). Tail end of career is more often poor (usually), or else it wouldn’t signal the end.
Teams that are poor at bringing up their own talent, and bring in FreeAgents. FA are often outside of their prime seasons.
Then rebuilding teams. Tanking. Imagine rookies and poor performing vets as placeholders.
It seems your system is rating managers more based on their Front office (the players and their time). Which isn’t much different than managers wins losses.
What would make your system better?
Fever – I see things differently than you.
1 – Yes the manager impacts the culture through building a positive clubhouse. One that isn’t only about Latin Players or players whose father was close friends with him when they played.
2 – The manager has nothing to do with the strategy versus opposing pitchers OR hitters. The analytics group provide the data and in the case of pitchers the coaches review the next day line-up with pitchers and build a plan of attack. The hitting coaches work with hitters to varying degrees once the analytics team provides the data on the pitcher for the next game. The manager is outside the scope of that discussion. He’s a fly on the wall at best, especially a know nothing guy like Cora. If he is intervening you have identified a huge problem
3 – The process to acquire players through transactions is to submit requests to the board to make transactions. If nothing is submitted no trades or free agent claims are processed. Two things show you are wrong about Henry providing adequate money. 1- Bloom needed to request a trade or FA contract for the board to approve it and that’s where Henry is involved and 2 – Henry allowed Bloom to go over the CAP in 2022 despite being in last place. That tells me Bloom never asked for things in 2021 because he was still in TB mode. I’ve never seen a point in time when Henry has denied money publicly to the team. I have my suspicions he denied Mookie’s money but I have no proof. I know he’s asked for home town discounts on more than just Mookie and that’s an issue to me but Bloom didn’t appear to have that problem. The gap in big money signings during Bloom’s era is strictly on Bloom.
4 – Yamamoto is a logical add and I’d like him the most now that DD re-signed Nola as I predicted. I don’t believe we will get any quality pitchers because nobody has come out and stated Devers will be the DH. You can’t have a bigger disincentive to signing with a team than refusing to move the worst fielding 3B in history to DH with the exception of pitching in Colorado. Yamamoto and other top of the rotation guys won’t be coming until Devers is moved unless Breslow has some trick up his sleeve. It’s a harsh reality but doing things for the benefit of one player rather than the team is a losing philosophy and I am counting on Breslow to change the culture to a team culture so Devers will go to DH making Yoshida completely expendable and Ohtani impractical.
5 – How bad is the MVP system when a guy who can impact the voting so substantially. Notice during all of Devers finishes above 10 and below 20th in the MVP voting nearly every season. He’s nowhere near good enough to earn it but there are two loyal Red Sox voters who vote for him regardless of how bad he is. Casas had better numbers and didn’t win ROY but Devers puts up a pedestrian 126 OPS+ on a bad Red Sox team and gets an MVP vote!!! hahaha How screwed up is that. Clearly both Cora and Devers know people in powerful places. Cora should be sitting in a jail cell for what he’s done to baseball and Devers should have been made a DH at age 16 when people first realized he couldn’t field.. Yet here we are watching a serial cheater manager a big market team and the worst 3B in the history of the game is still trotting out to 3B every game to make his annual 50 plus mishandles, 14 to 24 of which get counted as errors. It’s a sad commentary on the game and it’s politics.
Fever – A guy like Cora doesn’t deserve to be affiliated with baseball. He’s a convicted cheater who disgraced the game that has fed him his entire life.
The front office is no more a place for Cora than the Mayo Clinic. He’s a moron cheater and he has disgraced baseball, the Red Sox, his family and his country. Where does a man like that belong? Certainly not in baseball. Where do criminals belong?
Wishing him to the front office as if it’s inevitable is a scary thought. let’s hope it is avoidable!!
Cadagan – Very nicely written. I wish baseball was that simple as has been suggested here.
Winning has everything to do with multiple key elements:
1 – Talent
2 – Chemistry
3 – Luck
4 – Timing
1 – Talent needs to exist on the roster, the coaching staff, the manager, the front office and the ownership. If one person sees talent in a guy like Cora then you need to find another evaluator. If one deems Devers acceptable as a fielder you need to find another evaluator. DD had 6 pillars of expensive players, a groundswell of home grown players and a few key well chosen players to fill the holes in the team. They won in 2018 while the team was in it’s prime with the worst manger in baseball. That team was one of the great Red Sox teams of all time. A year later they still had the talent and they were still in their prime but their bad manager impacted their season along with some key injuries. By the end of 2019 the Red Sox were still just as talented as the 2018 team, they still had a terrible manager and they lost their superstar GM. The next four years reflected the importance of the GM and the talent as two of DD’s pillars were dumped to LAD and Sale needed TJ surgery. At that point a decision about talent needed to be made. Do we replace the lost talent and compete for a championship or do we dismantle the championship team. Bloom chose the later and the Red Sox fans paid a high price for these bad decisions. The talent is now gone. The lone survivors from 2018 are a DH playing 3B and a SP who constantly failed under Cora after nearly a decade of success with Ventura and Farrell.
Key aspect #1 is now sorely depleted from 2018 and must be rebuilt.
2 – Chemistry. The roller coaster ride Bloom put the roster through from a chemistry perspective is unforgivable. He begins by destroying the chemistry by throwing away his two top black players. The heart of the Red Sox was torn out when Mookie left and the clubhouse suffered. It took the COVID season to try to begin the healing process. By 2021 the new roster was starting to come together as a group and the shock of the Mookie deal and COVID wore off. Video support was returned so JD recovered but the clubhouse needed to transition to a new leader since Mookie was gone. Bogey became the leader and his little buddy Devers got back on his feet and performed better in 2021. Then, in 2022 Bloom once again slapped the clubhouse around by leaving several key foundational players hanging with their contracts. Cora once again lost the clubhouse and the team regressed after losing even more talent from the roster. The 2022 post season decisions once again buried the clubhouse much like in 2020. 2023 was never going to be a positive clubhouse with Cora the cheater as the manager and the leaders of the clubhouse playing elsewhere. This team got wrecked in the talent department and the clubhouse by Bloom and Cora.
3 Luck is a big part of any game. In 2018 many lucky things happened and Boston won a ring. In 2019, their luck was the opposite along with some horrendous decisions from Cora. The team had an off year. In 2020 luck didn’t matter because the Mookie deal and COVID clobbered everything and the roster played like minor league players. In 2021, luck was once again available and it allowed a very depleted roster to stay competitive thanks to the remaining players from the 2018 championship team. Luck is fleeting so in 2022 the over performance of bad players subsided. Please note that throughout this whole fluctuation of luck not once did the manager impact the team in a positive way. Bad players who had played well in 2021 were credited for their success because of their managers BUT in 2022 when those same slugs played poorly the manager got absolutely no credit for the failure. How fair is that? The same can be said for all the credit Cora took for 2018 but none of the blame for 2019. The man is a weasel. Luck in 2023 was inconsistent or maybe it was just the lack of talent that created the inconsistency. It really doesn’t matter. It wasn’t going to be a 2021 type lucky year.
4 – Timing is tightly coupled with luck. If Boston didn’t have to open on the west coast and Japan in 2019 the bad choice by Cora to push back Spring Training for the pitching staff might have had less of an impact. Nate might not have gotten hurt and maybe Mookie’s value would have been seen by the owners and DD would have been allowed to resign him. We’ll never know. The timing of the DD firing was terrible because the team won a ring less than a year earlier and the roster was set to make several runs at more rings but Mookie was in the way according to ownership along with Price. Firing DD triggered a series of bad decisions that have haunted the Red Sox ever since. The three amigos got control of the GM job and did nothing when Sale needed TJ surgery. Their ineptitude led to a 7 month delay and cost Sale and the Red Sox an entire year of having Sale on the mound. Additional bad timing happened when they hired Bloom. He stepped in and never looked or poorly chose his non-tenders thus starting him off on the wrong foot. The he chose to deal Mookie ONE MONTH prior to COVID. That’s about as bad of timing as you can get. If Mookie is on the roster when they return in July he’s an enormously hot commodity and he brings back much more needed prospects than the three clowns Bloom got. A lifetime back-up catcher, a league average right fielder and highly over-rated prospect who Cincy dumped on Friedman.
These 4 key factors dictate the success of any baseball organization. Not the insignificance of the role of manager. A good manager like Boche can create a great clubhouse atmosphere but he won’t be the guy who takes the pitch the opposite way to win the game, that’s the player and his talent, timing and luck. Boche impacts chemistry which is one of the four components but Talent is the biggest key to winning consistently.
Managers can negatively impact a win loss record far more than they can positively impact it because it’s the wrong choices that allow you to identify change in the outcome. Leave a good SP in and they win it’s not really due to the manager. Take out that same pitcher and pick the wrong next pitcher and the loss is on the manager.
To me the manager needs to know how to do his job and he needs to have an infrastructure of coaching talent that surrounds him. Boche in Texas brought Maddux to the Rangers and their pitching immediately improved. Was it because of Boche or Maddux? I say both which is why a manager gets far too much credit for both good and bad things that happen. He’s a minimal impact guy and no system of evaluation is needed for a low impact position like manager.
cadagan – I appreciate your post and am trying to fully understand it.
The whole point of my post was to compare whether a player performs better or worse than how they’ve performed in the past. If a player performs worse and there’s no underlying reason for it, such as injury or age or personal issues, then the manager and his coaching staff deserves at least some of the blame.
And when a player grossly under-performs, and then excels immediately after joining another team, that is also rock solid proof that he joined a team with a better manager and coaching staff.
TF – Happy Thanksgiving my friend! Today I give thanks to the time and effort you put into expressing your thoughts, which are always interesting.
#2 – This is something that has been much discussed, but we as fans can never truly know – who makes the bulk of the strategic decisions? The way I view it, the analytics folks in the front office provide the data but ultimately the manager makes the final decisions. Same thing with approaches … are you saying it was the front office that decided to basically forego ST in 2019 and not care about winning the first few months of the 2019 regular season? Perhaps sometimes Cora’s hands are truly tied, but he doesn’t strike me as someone who would tolerate that very often.
#3 – You know I’m not a Bloom apologist, but Henry most definitely told him to reduce spending in 2020-2021 and that was BEFORE Covid hit in 2020. There’s been a ton of quotes and reports to document this, Henry was furious that he had the highest payroll in MLB and yet still didn’t even make the postseason in 2019. When ultra-high expenses don’t translate to increased revenue, there’s a problem.
#4 – So you’re saying if Yama signs a $225M contract with the Red Sox, he will care about poor 3B defense? I disagree. If you’re a great pitcher, defense doesn’t matter as much. How did Martin do with Devers behind him? How about Sale pre-2019? How about Nate when he was healthy? Heck, Clemens had a pretty good Red Sox career with a bad defensive 3B behind him for most of it.
#5 – The biggest quality Devers has is that he’s like Big Papi, very very clutch. His career .910 OPS with RISP proves that. This year he had a .929 OPS with RISP compared to just a .817 OPS with nobody on base.
Nobody on the Sox hits good pitchers better than Devers! Look at his numbers against Cole, 12-for-38 with 7 homers and a 1.317 OPS!!!
Remember as a rookie he hit a game-tying homerun in Yankee Stadium against Chapman who was in his prime at the time? Nothing fazes Devers aka Little Papi!
TF – Acknowledging reality is not wishing! Haha!
“God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.”
It’s not worth getting worked about, life is too short!
Either Cora improves as a manager or he no longer manages the Red Sox, it’s a win-win!!
Fever – Sorry but I don’t believe in your quote!!
Creating limits in your life is a losing philosophy. Things don’t change without effort. The glory is in the fortitude to make the effort.
Cora’s skills won’t suddenly appear any more than Devers ability to field. They are things that don’t exist. Recognition of the obvious is simply if you don’t wear tinted glasses.
TF – I was happy to hear one of my favorite players, Adrian Gonzalez, interviewed for a managerial position.
How do you think he would be as a manager? We know one thing, he has impeccable integrity. Polar opposite of Cora.
Fever – I don’t know much about AGON’s integrity. He had one very strange career. He looked like a world beater in SD then they gave him to Boston and I thought Boston got the better end of the deal but as it turns out Anthony Rizzo may have made that a fair deal. Then suddenly Boston does a massive salary dump and he’s gone. He didn’t live up to his reputation in Boston but he had ONE great year. Then he fell off and was traded.
He played well after that but for only 4 years. His 29 year old season showed he was outstanding and then they dumped him to LAD at 30. He fell off the table at age 34. Remember that age because he wasn’t built like Devers, he was in good shape and man could he field.
Wish I could say more about his chances as a manager but I don’t really know him well because he was in Boston for such a short time and was part of two very bizarre trades to me.
What did you love about AGON?
He found himself in 18 when he won smh……
Did Breslow approve? 🙂 Good hire.
This is truly an I feel old moment. I picked up Bailey in fantasy like 2 innings into his rookie yr… I then loved that rookie season so much I held on like 26 yrs too long.
I once made possibly the greatest pick in fantasy history. I picked Severino with the absolute last pick in the draft in 2017. Then I swapped him for Julio Urias after a good start.
Severino goes 14-6 with a 2.98 and 230 Ks, and Urias goes under the knife two weeks later.
ellis – Talk about feeling old, I dated Bailey’s grand mother!! hahaha Just kidding. She was too cool for me.
TF – At first I thought you were talking about William Bailey. Haha!
No. Cora probably wanted Hansel Robles. Or move Llovera up the line.
Dang…. He’s a solid pick for any team’s pitching coach position.
TTO! It’s been a while… So Ohtani contract…56 years, 322 Quadrillion, plus points…Who says no?!??
Bailey’s been applying for literally every single job out there; I wonder why he’s leaving the Giants?
I think it might be about Bob Melvin wanting his own coaching staff. Not 100% sure though.
Thanks. I had forgotten Bob Melvin took over in S.F. managers always want their own pitching & bench coaches.
He wanted to move back east to be closer to family.
I guess the line, “ Bailey has looked for opportunities closer to his home in the Northeast” was unclear.
Reading is hard.
I wouldn’t work for the Giants on a dare.
Lucky for you no mlb franchises appear willing to dare you to work for them anytime soon.
@IM Insane They would take one look at the name on your resume and take a hard pass!
I wouldn’t work for the Giants at any price.
Lets go!!!
Bullpen bros support eachother, hope he’s ready to be busy for a while.
now lets get him Yamamoto, to buiding around him, in forming a great pitching staff.
English please
1-He wants to sign YY.
2-He wants to build around YY
3-He wants a great pitching staff.
It doesn’t really require all that much time and effort to understand it.
Now that wasn’t that hard, was it?!
Not hard at all, which is why I wonder why you asked for an English translation.
He understood what he meant, but it was grammatically incorrect.
Feel like Breslow and Bailey can turn Whitlock and Houck into quality starters.
Whitlock and Houck need to be Thunder and Lighting in the pen. Set up men in 24 for the 6th and 7th innings. They’ll be ready to replace Martin and Jansen in 25-26.
Give them defined roles and they’ll flourish. Jerk them around from starter to bullpen and they’ll crater.
Bee – This year they were more like Mystique and Aura in the pen, it didn’t take much for them to give it up.
Shock and Awe! Who were those two guys Cincy had many years ago? I think one was a lefty, though.
Bee – Rob Dibble?
I am LOVING this off-season!!!
It’s barely started and there haven’t been any impact moves just yet.
A new pitching coach can definitely be an impact move. Especially one that’s as highly regarded as Bailey. I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss what kind of positive impact he could make on their pitching staff.
I’m just saying it’s too early to crown Breslow all high and mighty. People are treating him like he’s the king but we have barely started.
I think he will be great, but realistically, we have been through so many POBOs in the last 5 years and he was given this job because no one wanted it.
Not crowning anyone hah. I just feel something for the Sox that I haven’t felt in a while… hope!
Haha the magic MOJO front office spell has started. Oh no!
DBH – I think the positives are Bush and Febles are gone and Bailey is hired, the negatives are Cora still here and will likely move to the front office eventually, and Tek looking to get away from him. I don’t want to lose Tek.
I like Breslow, but really wanted him as a GM under an experienced POBO. He’s very intelligent, but of course there’s a difference between knowledge and intelligence.
The player moves will highly dictate the success or failure of this offseason, time will tell. As always I’ll remain optimistic until at least ST.
I pretty much agree. I think the charm ownership feels for Cora will wear off this season. He won’t be fired, but I expect he will “move on to seek other opportunities” after 2024..
A rotten apple laying on the ground would have been a step up from Bloom, so Breslow gets his shot with me. He is my guy until he isn’t lol.
I just want to see a pic of Breslow, Bailey, and Tek sitting in a huddle while Cora looks on with the old sesame street song, “which one doesn’t belong here” playing in the back ground.
DBH – I have always wanted to see Cora as Oscar The Grouch from Sesame Street.
He’s got the right height and he’s very comfortable with trash cans, correct?
Don’t get me wrong, I like the Breslow signing, I’m just quick to not give him credit until I see progress. I might be in the minority, but I do like Cora. I’d be willing to let him join the office if Tek becomes the manager.
Solid hiring. Was never sold on Bush as pitching coach, hopefully Bailey fares better
Agreed!
He will ,if Cora stays out of his way, especially regarding in-game pitching decisions.
Does Seager/Bauer nut-hugger take issue with this? Maybe Andrew Bailey should go back to the kitchen until he gets more experience? Does Andrew Bailey look like someone seager/Bauer was rejected by years ago?
Great hiring. Now let’s get him some arms to work with!! Yamamoto, Cease & Matt Moore would be my (realistic) choices.
Andrew Bailey’s connections with Breslow makes this a better choice than I expected and it keeps the real question open…. Will Cora be back?
This Pitching Coach is Breslow’s guy but if I understand Breslow this is a guy jointly agreed upon by the new future manager and Breslow. Cora is not inside the cone of silence on this decision and that’s a great thing!!
Now Breslow needs to discuss hitting coaches with his future Manager and get that finalized before Friday if possible. Non-tenders are on Friday so he also needs to deal Verdugo by then so he doesn’t get forced into non-tendering him. If the projections of $9.2MM arbitration salary are correct, Verdugo’s contract will be Breslow’s first mistake as POBO.
We’ll learn a lot about Breslow in these next few weeks. This was a critical point in Bloom’s initial hiring because he missed the boat on the non-tendering of JBJ. He ended up cutting him after he paid him WAY TOO MUCH MONEY for 2020. Breslow needs to prove he is a smart money manager and trade or non-tender Verdugo. Abreu effectively outplayed Verdugo at over $8MM a year less!!
Let’s hope Breslow is not a Bloom retread who sucks at handling contracts. Lets hope he has his manager of the future picked out and has been discussing the coaching staffs with him and lets hope he pulls the trigger on firing Cora before the start of the 2024 Spring Training so the clubhouse can be free of trash and baggage.
I think Breslow and Cora will get along better than him and Bloom. For one, they were actually teammates in 2006 and were both in the organization in 2007 together.
Though we will see, usually doesn’t work out well for managers who quit as a result of changes above them.
okbud – Seriously, What is with the bull about Cora and Bloom? 4 frickin years and nobody on this site suggests there is an issue and now suddenly they never got along. Bull.
Breslow should spit in Cora’s face for how disgraced baseball with his actions in Houston and Boston. He won’t but he should on behalf of all players who spent their lives respecting the game.
At best, Breslow will tolerate the marble mouthed twit who has no idea how to manage, how to maintain a positive clubhouse, how to build a line-up and how to manage a pitching staff.
TOLERATE is the only word anyone should use when dealing with the convicted cheater.
Good points, Troll. This Verdugo’s walk year and has a lot to prove. Maybe holding him to the deadline to improve his value could be a plan, too. It was one 1 mentioned a month ago. But that was before there was reported interest in him. SonI am with you on this. Trade him now.
Troll, you’re wrong on this one. For someone who was as vocal, and rightly so, when bloom squandered assets and control, non-tendering Verdugo would be wasteful.
Trade him? YES!. But a non-tender gives him walking papers with nothing coming back.
Even a PTBNL/lottery pick is more than a non-tender. So, tender a contract. Trade him. But don’t cut him loose for nothing.
Agree GA, should try and trade Verdugo. To not even tender him will be of benefit to exactly nobody.
Urias on the other hand……
bud – I agree! You simply don’t non-tender a 2.6 WAR Gold Glove finalist who has already received a lot of trade interest from other teams.
Dugie is not 2020 Renfroe.
GA – Breslow is NOT squandering money unless a sudden market for Verdugo appears out of nowhere. We pay the salary whether he’s good or bad – either way, we lose a roster spot to a league average guy who could be replaced by someone better and his behavior in the clubhouse is eliminated. Lots of benefits of the non-tender, especially since he doesn’t perform at a $9.2MM level.
Bloom cost Boston by bringing Verdugo here and letting Mookie go. Bloom cost Boston by offering generous arbitration numbers in 2022 and 2023. The new number is now way above his contribution thanks to Bloom not Breslow.
Breslow has a choice, dramatically over pay Verdugo to be the fourth outfielder or non=tender him and see if he gets $9.2MM on the open market. If he can’t he’ll crawl back to Boston and ask for a reasonable contract for 1 year of less than $5MM. That’s what should have happened with JBJ and that’s what should happen with Verdugo. Do we care if someone else gets him at $9.2MM? NOPE. They grossly over paid and we have better and cheaper alternatives.
I respectfully disagree with your assessment. Non-tender if you can’t trade him by Friday.
50/50 that he will be a QO next year.
Joe – You can’t be serious. That’s simply absurd. A QO for a league average player? You know better than that.
This clown just compared JBJ to Verdugo…
Huh
The OP, trollfree, compared the JBJ situation to that of Verdugo lol
EricS – Yes I did. Are you that stupid you don’t get the comparison yet you try to make light of it in an ignorant way?
Let me know if I need to teach you some baseball concepts.
Apparently I am “that stupid” lol. The situations are not even close to comparable. JBJ was a glove only player who was actually making more than Verdugo will. Verdugo is a slightly above average offensive player who also plays gold glove defense. And he is young enough to still have further offensive upside. I’m sorry your smooth brain can’t understand that paying Verdugo the 9.2M and then trading him is the best course of action.
I also have to respond to your BS claims that Bloom overpaid Verdugo in arbitration to get to this point. Arbitration salaries are literally decided upon using a formula and he stuck to that just like every other team does. There have NEVER been reports about him overpaying arbitration salaries so quit running your blow hole
EricS – First, GG and Verdugo are never in the same sentence. He’s a bum in the outfield. He can’t reach accurately for balls above his shoulders and his routes to the ball suck.
Next, if $9.2MM is way over his value why would someone want him in a trade? Are you trading him to a Boston fan or do you have a team in mind that evaluates players so badly they will grossly over pay for Verdugo.
I’d rather have Abreu in the outfield than Verdugo. He costs more than $8.2MM less. That’s why Verdugo is a non-salvageable cancer for the clubhouse. Breslow had to the non-tender deadline to dump him and failed. That means there is no market for him. Now the best we can hope for is to couple him with someone else and trade a package but once again why would anyone pay $9.2MM for a league average guy when they can use a farm product like Abreu for under $1MM and he can do as well or better?
Baseball lesson number 2. The arbitration process involves several steps. The player and team submit suggested contracts for the next year. If they go to arbitration then one or the other is picked. Bloom paid Verdugo greater than market value and it never wen to arbitration. You are seriously lacking in baseball knowledge yet think you know so much.
Next time, just shut up and learn from the writers on this website how baseball actually works. And I’m glad you are so proud of your minimal knowledge of baseball but you really should check your facts before you spout off a bunch of things that are wrong. How childlike!!.
The only thing I have learned here is that your brain is in fact smooth. You confuse your opinion for fact and no one calls you out because you yell and scream and call people names if anyone disagrees with you. You are literally the person that the site had in mind when they created the ‘mute’ button.
A typical comment a Troll makes:
“Yes I did. Are you that stupid you don’t get the comparison yet you try to make light of it in an ignorant way?
Let me know if I need to teach you some baseball concepts.”
The irony in his/her name is hilarious.
EricS – Define OP. Remember, if it’s the correct words, you are gone.
I love that you think I scream because I present endless facts that support my arguments. You should try it some time. If I pull data from baseball reference and present it to win the argument, that’s not my opinion. You really aren’t too bright to suggest that my facts are opinions. Check it out … Baseball Reference. That’s where all the data comes from that proves all your lame comments to be incorrect.
As far as the insults go, they are simply me returning fire after I have been insulted. You opened with inaccurately calling me a clown. As proven by the facts, you are in fact the clown. Is that an insult or a fact. Hmmmm
Everything you stated was wrong. I guess your poking fun at me was attempt at humor so yes you apparently are a clown. Not a good one because it wasn’t funny. OP wasn’t spelled out. Why not? Shows a lack of intestinal fortitude on your part.
Please mute me because a day without your comments is a good day.
RSmith – The trolling fool. Good to read some of your drivel. Always amazes me how you butcher the English language and profess to be so smart. And baseball…. forget about it. You’re the only expert I know that knows nothing. Talk about irony!!!
Wasn’t going to post this on an pen board, then decided whatever..
Chatted up Dave Bush one year at Ft myers when he was sitting in stands during a FCL game. Whatever reason, either bored, didn’t give a cr-p, was not one of the 10 most friendly guys with the Sox organization since the 1960’s and have gotten to know many, plus chatted with many, many more.
Arrogant would be the word best used to describe Mr Bush. A huge ST type facility, *maybe* 10 fans total in it watching the game, he’s obviously in the stands to get a perspective on some pitcher for the GCL Sox, but it must have been classified, because he wouldn’t talk about it.
Like said.. Arrogant pos, unlike GCL Sox manager. Tom Kotchman, who have known since his 1st go around with the Sox and took over for my good Friend Rac Slider as manager of the winter haven red sox in ’83.
Kudos to Boston for dumping this walking pile.
Right, I think several fans aren’t realizing what kind of positive impact Bailey can have, especially compared to Bush who was often described as “stand-off’ish” and that’s putting it nicely. Lol
This is a great move in the right direction for the Red Sox, their fans should be very excited about this.
For those who believe ( I’m guilty) a coach doesn’t make a difference, either you have talent or not. I would like to submit states exhibit “B”( as in Brais) What a WONDERFUL task you’ve been given Andrew… To see what a Red Sox bullpen could be without RB…… now hire Bert/Ernie to coach 1st/3rd….like the 04 ALCS… can watch hundreds of times and it’s always good…
That’s not true at all today. The improvement that coaching, video, analytics, pitch shapes can make today is immense. Some teams excel at this, others don’t.
ok great. now please hire pitchers
I think we are waiting on Ohtani to sign, Jaybest. Market is stalled until then.
DBH – Winter Meetings in Nashville the first week of December, that’s when the market truly begins.
Let the Rangers, Giants and Dodgers fight over Ohtani … just give me Yamamoto.
Looks like Cashman eliminated the Yankees from signing him. Haha!
The reporting is that Ohtani will choose soon, before the winter meetings. And the same report says that LA, Texas, and omg no… Sox are the most active in the hunt.
I, too, prefer Yamamoto. He is only 25 and his arm actually works haha
The good news is that Breslow/Bailey understand pitching development better than the outgoing cast.
The BAD news is that even ‘moto will have the same issues ohtani did coming over from NPB – going from 6 to 5 days rest.
Will he demand a similar requirement as ohtani, that he goes 6 days between turns through a rotation? Or, will he have to make the adjustment on the fly to normal rest?
The former means carrying an extra spot starter, or, taxing your pen by throwing a BP game each week. The latter risks the Cora-effect where you need to worry about breaking your new toy by not building him up to a normal mlb workload via both season length and IP come the last 6 weeks or so.
Fever I agree there is quite a bit of risk with Ohtani of course there’s quite a bit of reward as well. There’s no way to know how he’s coming back from his second procedure there’s a chance you pay 50 million a year for a DH. There’s no way to know how effective he’s going to be on the mound. This brings a ton of risk into the equation. I would prefer going hard after Yamamoto for much less money and possibly add another starter like a Clevinger or a Wacha. In the end I hope another team is the team who wins the Ohtani sweepstakes.
DBH – Do I smell another wager? I’ll take the over, December 3 or later as far as Ohtani signing a contract.
I think the Red Sox rumors are a smokescreen. Sure they want to make a splash, but Breslow is too intelligent to give Ohtani a longterm dual player contract with his pitching future so questionable.
SoCal has the largest Japanese American population in North America, I think Dodgers get him if the Rangers don’t.
Bruin – The fact Ohtani has made more than 23 starts only once in his career is a big concern for me. Possibly being available only once in a 7-game postseason series also concerns me.
And one of the biggest factors, what happens to Devers if Ohtani becomes the primary DH for the next decade? I don’t want the Red Sox eating over $100M in a couple years because they are forced to move Devers because there’s no place to play him.
Bruin1012 – I understand the concerns about Ohtani but the money is there to drop $50 or $60MM per year for four to six years on two young top end starters. Yamamoto and Nola make sense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nola is kept by DD. It’s going to be hard to get top of the line SPs so Yamamoto becomes a critical piece to sign immediately to buy time to finalize a second star pitcher or trade for them.
DBH and Fever – I say he goes to Texas on NOV 21st two days before Thanksgiving. Boy, the scramble for Jerseys down here in Texas would be off the charts. WS jerseys still aren’t available!!! Looking to pick up a WS Champs Eovaldi Jersey!! Loved him in Boston and now in Texas.
I think the best fit for Ohtani is Seattle. His presence in the lineup and protection for Rodriguez would imo bring them over the top and legjt contenders. There pitching is fabulous so if he comes back and adds in 2025 it just adds to probably the best pitching in baseball. It’s well known that Ohtani likes Seattle and is well aware of the Ichiro history I think he would really love to play in Seattle. If ownership is willing to pony up the money or at least come close he’s going to me a Mariner.
what happens to Devers if Ohtani becomes the primary DH for the next decade?
======================
This is why I think there is almost no chance of the RS signing Ohtani.
1-No guarantee he can pitch after a 2nd TJS.
2-Neither DH nor OF is a big need for us.
3-Writers don’t speak of it, but he is already 29. Decline starts in three years. 10-year contracts starting at age 29 don’t usually work out.
YY (everyone, really) presents a risk, but a 9-year contract will have almost no declining years.
Seattle is also one of the teams that one might expect another 500,000 tickets sold, paying for his contract. They are at 2.7M right now, and have been as high as 3.5M. If they sign Ohtani, I’d bet on 3M tickets sold, and wouldn’t be remotely surprised at 3.3M.
Joe – Even with Ohtani in his prime, the Angels were only 13th in attendance for the past two seasons.
In 2017, the year before Ohtani signed, they averaged 37K.
Same attendance in 2018.
Dropped down to 30K in 2022.
Went up a little to 33K in 2023.
And keep in mind, SoCal has the highest concentration of Japanese Americans in the country.
So while the Mariners would certainly get a boost in attendance next year if they sign Ohtani, that attendance increase would likely not be sustainable unless the team contends nearly every year.
Bruin – Food for thought …. in addition to the Mariners needing to spend enough each year to be perennial contenders for him, Ohtani hasn’t exactly been comfortable hitting in Seattle.
In 133 career PA’s at T-Mobile Park, he’s batting just .184 with a .658 OPS.
BTW in Dodger Stadium he’s hitting .357 with a 1.136 OPS.
TF – Get me a jersey too! Except I want “Nasty Nate” on the back of mine. Haha!
TF – There’s a plethora of top line starting pitchers available this year, but you’re right there’s a lot of demand for them too.
Soooo… are we there yet? Thought this deal was ‘near’
DBH – Just a few more hours of driving and we will finally arrive at Wally World!
Wonder why this deal is taking so long to close..
Pool – Waiting on Cora to approve.
well if the pitching rotation/pen explodes this year, CB and AB can hit the mound a runnin’ and help out
And be more effective than Mauricio Llovera
Finally.
All this talk on Ohtani… hogwash… now that we have a competent PC… use that money to bring him back!!!! He’s already righted the ship.. think how much better he can be!! Pedro 2( only In relief) Happy Thanksgiving Nation!!!
Bailey got great results at the Giants. It’s all a bit bittersweet but happy the guy got to be where he wants to be. The Giants marketing department presented a humble, hard working, down to earth guy. Our loss, your gain. Good get.
From my perspective this hire is all about Breslow not Cora. I believe Breslow and Bailey are a good fit. Then there is the square peg that won’t fit in a round hole named Cora. It’s a matter of time before he’s gone. Maybe after observing the massive uprising when Bloom’s first move was to dump his star black players, Breslow is taking a smoother route to success rather than failure like Bloom. Maybe he already has his new manager picked out and agreed to by the manager during backroom discussions and he’s now focusing on the roster because dumping Cora is no big deal to him. He’ll do it at a strategic point. Maybe Cora mumbles something inappropriate during an interview or he suggests a string of terrible suggestions like starting Spring Training two weeks late to rest the pitchers because their off season wasn’t long enough. You’ll see, he’ll pick the right time and in the meantime he’ll build both the infrastructure he wants and the roster.
He’s had one good move and one bad move in my opinion. The trade was outstanding and not non-tendering Verdugo appears to be an expensive mistake caused by Bloom. If Bloom doesn’t jack up Verdugo’s pay the last two years we might see Verdugo at $5MM not $9.2MM as his suggested arbitration number. It will be interesting to see if Breslow unlike Bloom challenges Verdugo requested 2024 salary and an arbitrator makes the decision. It’s only a couple million saved but when you are a .500 team you need every penny you can get to turn things around and when your top player can’t field and makes $30MM a year you have a massive albatross contract to deal with along with the impact of horrendous defense on recruiting SPs to Boston.
Breslow has his hands full. So far he’s batting .500 which is about .450 above what Bloom batted from the start to the end of his tenure.
Troll cmon your better then that you don’t non tender Verdugo. He’s going to be traded I’m pretty sure of that he has value even at his predicted 9 million arm salary. I’m guessing he is going to moved in a deal with a prospect maybe Yorke for some pitching help. The bottom line you don’t non tender the guy he still has more value then his salary. I think he’s likely to play well this year in a contract year after being traded to someone like say the Mariners in package for Woo or possibly Miller.
Bruin1012 – You believe there is a market for a $9.2MM league average player? Did Bloom get a new job? I truly believe there is no market for him and the only hope is he can be a throw in.
I disagree with you on his value being greater than $9.2MM because Abreu costs less than $1MM and out performed him in 2023 and I expect will out perform him in 2024. Save the $9.2MM makes the most sense to me since far cheaper and better alternatives are available in the outfield.
If he does get traded and he brings back value then you were right to believe he could be traded but if he finishes the 2024 season on the Red Sox for $9.2MM his estimated cost then I say his OPS+ will not be high enough to justify his pay day and a cheaper and more productive alternative should have happened. It will be a Breslow mistake. Like I said, I HOPE you are right but to me it’s highly unlikely due to everyone seeing his OPS+ and his $9.2MM price tag. Just like JBJ, his arbitration numbers jumped more than they should have and that is on Bloom.
Bruin1012 – One more thing. No telling me you were right about him before the end of the season because we all know Verdugo looks completely different in the first half than the second half. He might look worth $9.2MM on July 1 because his OPS+ is over 120 but by the end of the season it will be back down to 100 and the $9.2MM would be a waste. If Breslow can deal him while he’s at 120 or above, then I give Breslow a ton of credit. That would be risky but profitable approach to the situation.
I’ll just say this KD I think you are hugely in the minority in thinking it’s a good idea to release Verdugo and I wouldn’t agree with that either. Imo he’s going to be traded. I could see Verdugo being enough to get someone like Hancock whom Seattle has seemed to sour on. I would be fine with that trade see if Bailey can help him become the pitcher he can be.
Troll I think if you get Duggie away from Cora he just might blossom. I think he fits well with the Mariners. Maybe a bigger trade like Verdugo, Yorke and a smaller piece for Woo.
Bruin1012 – I really do hope you are right that a team like Seattle could see $9.2MM in value for Verdugo but to me that seems like wishful thinking.
If Seattle is so poorly run that they would consider trading Woo for a guy like Verdugo even if you throw in a prospect then they are in deep trouble.
Again, I hope you are right. Alex Verdugo never played over 106 games in a season with LAD and his OPS+ only topped 100 1 of his three shortened years in LAD. In Boston his 123 OPS+ was in the 60 game season of 2020. The other three were 107, 102 and 100. He’s trending down as he plays each full season of over 140 games.
This team has Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, Anthony and Bleis. Verdugo won’t be better than any of them in a year or two. So he must be traded to make the $9.2MM salary worthwhile. I prefer to go with the younger guys during this transition year with Breslow. If Devers isn’t moved to DH the team won’t be competitive so why not give all 5 young outfielders lots of time to see who the best three are?
I’ll be pulling for that trade..
Bruin1012 – I just read that Suarez got traded by the Mariners because his $12MM per year contract was too high. Why do you think Verdugo’s $9.2MM wouldn’t be too high? Suarez had a 101 and 126 OPS+ the last two years and $12MM was too much for him. Right now, if traded to Seattle his $9.2MM would be 7th highest on a team that only has 2 players making over $12MM per season. Also besides Julio Rodriguez they have Kellenic, Clase, DeLoach, Hummel, Marlowe and Trammel on the roster to play outfield. Adding an expensive not too productive Verdugo doesn’t make sense to me.
Verdugo definitely has talent. Its silly to say otherwise.
Verdugo’s FWar the past 5 years.
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.2
2.0
Above average every year. I have no clue where he’s getting “average” player.
Every single Red Sox player Troll likes/dislikes comes down to one thing: Did Bloom have something to do with acquiring or extending him.
Verdugo: Traded for by Bloom — Dislikes
Devers: Extended by Bloom — Dislikes
Casas: Drafted by DD — Likes
Wacha: Signed by Bloom — Disliked
Wacha: Not Resigned by Bloom — Likes him now
Its really obvious to a neutral observer and Verdugo is a prime example. “Release Verdugo” is absurd. But, I guess we’ll find out soon if he has value. Im sure Troll will admit he’s wrong when Red Sox get value back (Lol, sure he will).
TF – I like Abreu so far, but come on …. 76 career AB’s is not nearly enough to evaluate him at the ML level.
And have you looked at the current market for MLB-proven OF’ers?
It’s a no-brainer to tender Verdugo.
TF – I’m guessing you’re not aware Dugie lost his grandmother at the end of June and his mom was diagnosed with cancer around the same time.
It’s important to take off-the-field stuff into consideration when a player slumps.
Bruin – I think everyone on this planet, other than TF, believes Dugie will be traded.
Cora throwing him under the bus sealed it.
Bruin – Every time I see “Duggie” I think of a mascot, like “Duggie the Dugout”.
Maybe I should make the suggestion to Werner?
Yea FPG I think Duggie just needs a change of scenery. He played a solid right field last year but it seems like he’s had a run of bad luck with Boston.
Last year he had the death of his grandma his moms cancer diagnosis the year before he had the fractured toe that likely caused his defensive drop that year. Before that he had back issues. On one hand the guys pretty tough he tries to play through injuries but he seems to always have something going on. It’s time to move on and I believe he will be a fit in a lot of places. The reason I brought up Seattle is I think he fits there based on them wanting a contact oriented outfielder to replace Teo. I think he fits and I think it’s possible that Boston pays his 2024 salary to increase the prospect return. Duggie has value.
Yea Fever I think Breslow took this job despite being saddled with a manager you have to think he was told this by ownership. I’m guessing in a perfect world he would of been allowed to pick his manager. I’m guessing Cora is the next to go if the Sox struggle this year especially if some high end pieces are added.
Fever – If everyone on this planet believes Verdugo has trade value then I hope they are right but until it happens, he’s yet another albatross signing. It may not hurt the pocket book as much as Devers but it’s still wasted money.
COST should not be MORE than VALUE. A player like Verdugo with a 100 OPS+ is completely replaceable by a guy like Abreu making less than $1MM. $8.2MM is wasted on Verdugo.
People need to consider replacement cost when discussing the value of a player. Team OPS+ is a leading indicator of how well a team will do..
Here are the last 8 team OPS+ vaues for the Red Sox. The value is a direct correlation to the success of the team. $9.2MM on a 100 player causes dips like we’ve seen under Bloom. Breslow needs to be much better at the job for the team to get back to DD heights.
:
2023 – 14th of 30 with a value of 100
2022 – 12th of 30 with a value of 102 (Bloom dumping hurt the team)
2021 – 6th of 30 with a value of 106
2020 – 13th of 30 with a value of 104
2019 – 6th of 30 with a value of 106
2018 – 1st of 30 with a value of 112 (DD adds JD to replace Papi)
2017 – 22nd of 30 with a value of 92
2016 – 1st of 30 with a value of 112 (PAPI’s last season)
DD inherited a good team that needed pitching in 2016. He still had Papi so the hitting was great. Papi retired and the OPS+ dropped 20 points!! So DD went out and got JD who pumped it back up to 112 where it was in Papi’s last season. With better pitching, they won a RING.
Breslow is starting with a team that just finished with 100 and 102 in the last two years. Clearly the hitting with over paid guys like Devers, Yoshida and Story is not cutting it. Verdugo is simply another over paid problem on offense. Breslow must fix these 4 over paid players or move them to be successful. Right now, he’s done nothing to fix the 100 OPS+. He’s done nothing to fix the weak pitching staff and he’s missed the window to non-tender nearly $10MM of wasted payroll on Verdugo.
As each day passes his scorecard remains somewhere in between the greatness of DD and the ineptness of Bloom. He needs to start moving the meter towards DD with a big acquisition that either improves the OPS+ or the pitching.
I may be alone in believing Verdugo is untradeable, but the scary part is half the world thinks he has value and isn’t smart enough to understand the replacement value concept. I’ll take Abreu at less than $1MM in the outfield any day over Verdugo at $9.2MM. Then I’ll take the $8.2MM a bump the money I’m going to pay for two new SPs by $8.2MM. If that doesn’t make sense to a baseball fan, I can’t help them. It’s simple math and COST/BENEFIT analysis.
Fever – So his 7 year career of mediocrity should be over-looked because his grand mother died in his most recent season?
I don’t get that logic. You are rationalizing why Verdugo sucks. It’s actual due to a lack of skills not deaths in his family. He is a prototypical league average player which makes him better than 99% of the people in the world BUT NOT WORTH anything more than $5MM per year. Supply and Demand.
Rsmith – If real stats don’t support your argument then you simply cherry pick made up stats like fWAR. Which company is right in their calculation of fWAR? I rest my case. Its a bad estimate whether done as a projection or an evaluation.
Verdugo was league average in LAD and in BOS his numbers validate that fact. That has nothing to do with Bloom except he made him the center piece of a giveaway of the franchise player in Boston and then sold him as a perennial all-star which wasn’t even close to true..
Devers – If you had half a brain you’d realize that paying an over weight 3B who is the worst fielding 3B in history $30MM for 10 years of offense ONLY is a MASSIVE over pay. He’ll be a league average hitter by 33 or 34 with nearly half his contract left. Hopefully by then he won’t be setting new records for bad defense. Is that related to Bloom? Yes, the moron gave him the deal and hung an albatross contract on the next GM much like Cherington did nearly 10 years ago.
Casas – I was a negative guy related to Casas if you look back at comments in the early part of 2023 and then he started hitting and as I watched him hit I realized I had misjudged him. He was better than Dalbec and the future 1B of the Red Sox. You of all people should remember that since you criticized me for disliking him. Wake up and try to stay with the insults you give me over time.
Wacha – I disliked signing Wacha because with Sale floundering the last thing Boston needed was an iffy pitcher that was cheap. You can add nearly EVERY Bloom deal to this list if you want to. I’m not ashamed of being right about how bad Bloom was at his job. Heck, you should be complimenting me because I saw his abysmal skills in January of 2020 long before most people did.. Pointing out how much I hated Bloom moves is like complete validation of how smart I am at analyzing baseball. You could learn from what I write!!! hahaha
I like Wacha now? Where did that come from? I have absolutely no recollection of ever writing that. I guess if facts are missing, like Cora, you just make stuff up. I get it.
Did you say you were a neutered observer? hahaha
If Verdugo brings back value I already said I’d give Breslow credit for doing the highly unlikely. If he stays with the team then I will blame Breslow for pulling a Bloom and not non-tendering a guy who was to be paid so far above his value that we were wasting his entire salary.
When Verdugo is DFA’d in 2023, please make sure you write an apology to me or if he plays the whole year and puts up another 100 OPS+ as I expect he will. Either way, we wasted close to $10MM of the payroll on a guy we didn’t need and diverted money from guys we could have used in 2023.
Fever – A no brainer to tender a $9.2MM player who produces a 100 OPS+?
That makes no sense. What makes it a no brainer?
1 – What is more likely, Verdugo putting up a 100 OPS+ or a 120 OPS+ to justify his cost? History shows 100 is more likely.
2 – Does Verdugo possess the type of personality that fits with most clubhouses? His schtick got old very quickly in Boston. $9.2MM for a guy that isn’t talented or gets along with people? Not an easy trade.
3 – Boston because of Bloom’s tear down is now transitioning to a younger group of players which include many OFers. Keeping Verdugo just makes the outfield that much more crowded which limits the growth of the younger players.
THREE GREAT REASONS this in NOT A NO BRAINER!!!
Now give me yours!!!!
“cherry pick fwar” Lol
The FWar includes all aspects of the game. OPS+ which you’ve sighted 30, 40 or 50 times already in your many paragraph on this article, is only what a player does at bat, and even that is limited. It doesnt look at what he does on the basepaths, it doesnt look at how often he strikes out, it doesnt look at his fielding, or his arm strength, it doesnt consider the difficulty of the position he’s playing. FWar incorporates all of these things.
Sure there is discrepencies in the evaluating process of FWar, but its all-encompassing of the entire game an athlete brings to the table. You want to just look at OPS+, but ignore everything else. Sure, Im the one cherrypicking. War is a world better overall evaluator than OPS+. Its not even close. This cant be a real debate.
Heres another way to look at it:
Player A comes up twice:
1st AB) He singles with the bases empty and is left stranded at first
2nd AB) Strikes out
Defensively he makes 2 errors
Player B comes up twice:
1st AB) Singles with runners on 2nd and 3rd, then steals 2nd, 3rd and home
2nd AB) Lines out
Defensively he throws out 2 players at the plate and robs a HR
———————————————-
OPS+ says both players had the same quality of a game.
FWar says Player B had a world’s better game.
———————————————-
Who’s right? I’ll take the added detail of FWar over OPS+ any day of the week
RSmith – Still cherry picking. You had to concoct a scenario for it to work.
Personally,your scenario tells me nothing because it’s game specific not season specific. It gives Player A bad batting scenarios to prove your point
.
Offensively, batter 1 has an OBP of .500 as does batter 2 thus in that specific game they were equal because they performed equally on offense and the circumstances were better for batter 2 which makes it an invalid comparison because the next day the situations could reverse and player 1 would have the higher ESTIMATION called fWAR and player 2 would have the low one.
Silly example on your part. Not relevant. Would I pick the better defensive player if their offensive numbers were the same by normal evaluation standards. YES.
Bottom line, both players did their jobs equally well and game situations dictated the difference not the players. Players don’t control game situations which is why using a simulation formula is completely inaccurate. There is no guarantee the estimated events that are the basis of the formula will EVER occur. It’s like guessing heads or tails. USE REAL STATS not make believe estimates if you want to compare players.
I only use OPS+ because it’s accepted by people. It’s wrong as an estimator but it’s got less assumptions in it than WAR and all the off=shoots of WAR so it’s more correct than any of the WAR derivatives.
I still believe in OBP and Batting Average because one tells you how well a person commands the strike zone and the other shows how good their hand/eye coordination is. SLG is bogus because it includes BA so I prefer Isolated Power. Add up BA, IP and (OBP-BA) and you have a real measure of a players hitting. Then consider their base running and you have a real evaluation of a player on offense. Then look at their fielding percentage and you know if they can field. Their range is a bonus so check for that last.
Whatever
Fever – It’s fair to suggest that Abreu might not be as good as Verdugo but is he nearly $10MM worse? If you can find a replacement for Verdugo costing $5MM or less it makes sense to sign them but if you keep Verdugo there is no incentive to spend money to do that.
Here is the problem. If you keep Yoshida in the OF then you have Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF and Verdugo on the bench. If you play Verdugo ahead of Rafaela you stunt the growth of a future Red Sox star. If you move Yoshida to DH then Duran plays CF, Rafaela plays RF and either Abreu or Verdugo play leftfield unless Anthony is ready for the bigs. He’s been the best young hitter and will make a great LF in Boston so if you play Verdugo and sit both Abreu and Anthony then you once again stunt the growth of a future star of the team.
Every scenario ends up with sitting Verdugo OR sitting a future star of the team. And that costs $9.2MM. That’s why it’s an issue. If he had non-tendered him. He would have gone into arbitrations with his new team and thanks to Bloom over paying him he’d still get close to $9.2MM for a 100 OPS+.
I prefer to take his $9.2MM and add it to money available for SPs and get a bit more than we can afford today. What’s the risk? Verdugo in his last year suddenly out performs his $9.2MM contract. Odds? Leave it as not likely.
Troll I’m very confident that Verdugo will be traded but if he isn’t it isn’t the end of the world.
It’s very likely that Rafaela is going to start in AAA Worcester to continue to get his plate approach refined. My guess at this time with a very likely Verdugo trade that Abreu starts in right, with Duran in center, and Masa still plays left. Once Rafaela is deemed ready he’s going to play center most likely.
Rafaela is very versatile and I do believe if he’s needed at second he could be very good defensively their potentially this would make shortstop and 2nd base elite defensively. Rafaela’s versatility could prove to be huge even if he doesn’t hit right away. I fully expect Abreu and his much better plate approach to quickly become a decent right fielder. His arm is perfect for right in Fenway it’s strong but also very accurate runners will quickly learn not to run on him. He’s also sneaky athletic he’s my choice to start out in right.
The team could really use a right handed power bat like Duvall who can also play any outfield position. The problem is Refsnyder is already signed as a backup but imo Duvall would be much better as a 4th outfielder that plays multiple times a week and more when he gets hot.
If your right Troll and Duggie can’t be traded, very unlikely, then you have a guy playing in right who is playing for his next contract in right, Duran in center and Abreu in left. I still like Duvall as the 4th outfielder in this scenario as well.
The bottom line it’s going to be interesting to see which way Breslow goes.
Bruin1012 – I’m sure you realize that your confidence in a trade doesn’t mean it will happen. I hope you are right but I doubt people will pay $9.2MM for him.
As good as Rafaela looked last year I have no idea why you think he starts in AAA. He was excellent in his debut and should be up and playing right field since he has the best outfield arm. If he’s in the infield I don’t want to waste his skills at 2B. His arm needs to be at 3B or SS.
Unless Duran starts out very, very badly he is the future center fielder for this team. Abreu doesn’t have as good an arm as Rafaela so he will be in left field if Rafaela is not in the infield. If Rafaela is in the infield then Abreu can play right field. I think Abreu is the shakiest of the young outfielders so it wouldn’t surprise me if Verdugo starts in left field when he isn’t traded and Yoshida is the DH. That configuration with Devers at 3B means a .500 team because the pitching will be weak, the defense will be weaker.
There is no reason to spend money on Duvall since he’s a streak hitter just like Dalbec. If you want an inconsistent hitter with power and lots of Ks they both fit the bill but Dalbec is far cheaper. There is no reason to add weak players like Bloom did. Boston needs premium players to raise the sorely depleted skill level.
The players you are suggesting means no improvement in the team. I hope Breslow has higher sights than you do. A stud 3B is needed. A all-star level 2B would be nice. If we get an outfielder it needs to be a Soto type player but I see no reason to get an outfielder. 2 ELITE pitchers are needed and I think Hader is a wise move considering Jansen’s age. If Breslow wants to make the playoffs then he’ll need another big left handed arm in the bullpen. Hader fits the bill and we have the money especially if no SPs come to Boston because of Devers.
How to break down this comment down let me see we’ll your right it’s possible that Verdugo isn’t traded and he could be the opening day right fielder. I really believe he is going to be traded I think their is a market for him and he will be traded.
How to respond to someone that obviously hasn’t watched Rafaela and Abreu that’s a different story. Abreu is the better choice in right and I base that for a few reasons. The first while Rafaela might have the stronger it’s not nearly as accurate as Abreu’s arm. I base this on games I watched Abreu play right field in in 27 games in right field he threw out 8 runners he has a strong arm but it’s also super accurate. Rafaela, conversely, is loose with his arm he has a strong arm but not nearly as accurate. He likes to show it off but he makes ill advised throws he misses the cutoff man, in short, Abreu is the better choice in right based a very strong arm but also very accurate. Teams just stopped running on Abreu last year. The second thing Rafaela has never played right he isn’t Mookie Betts he has only played center and his glove work their is special he has huge range and can cover that triangle in center. Abreu doesn’t have the range of Rafaela but he’s sneaky athletic and especially if you have an elite very rangy centerfielder like Rafaela will handle right fine and he has the best overall arm for right. Duran’s arm isn’t even in the same class as Abreu or Rafaela and thus he plays left in that outfield.
Once again I’m not quite sure what you saw when Rafaela was brought up but he was really quite bad offensively. The concern for Rafaela was how he would look against the advanced pitching in the big leagues and that concern was founded. He slashed .241/.286/.386 in the last two weeks once there some more adjustments by pitchers he was truly awful .133/.184/.178. I will be surprised if he doesn’t start in AAA in the beginning of the season to continue to work on his approach. It was, admittedly, a small sample size but he was really bad statistically and more importantly looked bad at the plate.
Abreu, conversely, has the much better approach at the plate. There is much better chance that his patient ambush approach will translate better in the bigs next year. Imo he’s much more likely to stick next year while Rafaela hopefully hones his plate approach at AAA.
I like Duvall because he has big right handed power bat that could be a great 4th outfielder for Boston. Right handed power is lacking on this team. If Boston wants to continue to play Masa in the outfield next year it’s likely that the opening outfield is Masa in left, Duran in center, and Abreu in right.
I also think Bostons infield defense will be better next year with an elite defensive shortstop and what I expect a much improved first baseman defensively. It’s not ideal that Devers continues to man third but that’s what’s going to happen at least next year but I just don’t see them moving him off third for at least another year or two so it is what it is. I expect at least one pitcher signed via free agency and probably a trade for another pitcher. I see the team improving next year but doubt they make the post season. I guess it’s possible they squeak in if most things go right. I expect 2025 to be a more realistic time frame to really compete.
Bruin1012 – You prognostication of Boston’s future if correct will render them an team outside the scope of the playoffs in 2024. And they will have shot themselves in the foot by leaving Devers at 3B as you suggest.
You seem very adverse to change so I’m guessing you are very conservative in normal life. You seldom suggest chances that will work and prefer a fata complete perspective on certain issues like Devers and Verdugo. I spent my whole life changing things for the better so I believe Breslow can do that if he’s good at his job. Devers has never belonged at 3B and that’s obvious to everyone. Based on your detailed analysis of Rafaela versus Abreu (which by the way was grossly exaggerated with respect to Rafaela’s right field play) you would detail Devers as a guy with hands of stone, an erratic arm, no ability to field and throw on the run and even bad on pop-ups. He has no baseball acumen to understand which grounders to his left to pursue and which to allow the shortstop to field. His balance is bad, his first step is slow especially toward the line and his back hand is terrible. This is the player you are saying will play 3B for another year or two. There is no way for Boston to make the playoffs if that happens. Recruiting good SPs will be far more difficult. There are so many negatives and only one positive to Devers playing 3B, he’s happy but that doesn’t improve his hitting as proven in 2023.
Now what elite SS is coming to town? Did I miss a deal? Are you suggesting Rafaela will be at SS? Are you calling Story an ELITE defensive SS? I’ll give you that he is a better SS defensively than a 2B but ELITE? I agree that Casas will improve and his defense is not a worry to me.
There are two MASSIVE defensive weaknesses in the Red Sox line-up. Devers and Yoshida caused them to be at the bottom of the barrel in 2023 on defense. That must change so why wouldn’t Breslow attack the problem directly by removing both from the field? One goes to DH and the other goes to another team. It’s just that simple.
You suggested Bloom should stay at least 3 years because you are conservative and you were dead wrong. I suggested he be fired after what he did with Mookie and nearly every day after that and I was right. Taking a conservative approach to bringing back Boston to greatness doesn’t work for me. Breslow has the money and the authority to fix the defensive problems and get top of the line SPs and there is no reason to wait a year or two to do ANY of it. It needs to happen sooner rather than later.
We have disagreed over the years primarily from perspective. I know you want what you think is best for the Red Sox as do I. I’ve never put off doing something today to take the safer route of doing it tomorrow and I’m not about to change at my age. Boston needs to recover from Bloom quickly not on a slow ascending slope.
You clearly like Abreu and I think he is by far the weakest of the young outfielders and I wouldn’t be surprised if he fails badly in 2024. Rafaela and Anthony on the other hand are the future of the organization along with Duran. Duran’s speed should never be wasted in left field in Fenway. Rafaela needs to mature as a player but he’s the best athlete of the bunch and has the highest ceiling as an overall player. He is likely to be the showcase player before Mayer because at a younger age he’s proven to have more skills.
One more thing, I saw Rafaela go 6 for 17 against the Yankees. That’s big time pressue for a young Red Sox player. That impressed me. In a series at TB he went 4 for 7. That impressed me. BAL pitched him well and he was a horrendous 1 for 17 which is why he looked bad to conclude the season because BAL was the final four game series. His batting average fell 47 points in the four game series. That’s why September call-ups fluctuate from .428 to .241. I’m sorry you weren’t impressed with Rafaela but I was. I also see a history in the minors that far exceeds Mayer’s minor league career and blows away Abreu’s. It is the consistent greatness in the minors that makes him the likely candidate to jump to higher plateaus in the majors. He and Anthony are alone right now in their domination of the minors. That’s the type of thing Betts, Bogey and Devers did. They are the last three great players prior to the current crop.
You can watch players all you want and pigeon hole them based on what you like about in a player but the stats don’t like. Abreu will be lucky to hit in the majors, his arm is not as highly rated as Rafaela’s, Abreu has been in the minors much longer than Rafaela and has 32 OF assists in 5 seasons while Rafaela has 15 in 2 seasons in the minors. If my math is correct then Rafaela averages 7.5 outfield assists per season and Abreu averages 6. That contradicts what you wrote about how good Abreu is compared to Rafaela. And while we are on the subject of comparing the two players, did you know that Rafaela has made 3 errors in 343 total chances in the outfield (I guess all those errant throws you mentioned didn’t get counted) and Abreu has mad 13 outfield errors in 617 total chances. So to summarize in less than twice as many chances Abreu has made more than 4 time the number of errors that Rafaela has made. Who should play RIGHT FIELD IN FENWAY?
I think the right answer is Rafaela unless he is asked to play 3B when Devers goes to DH.
I love that you watch guys and draw conclusions but when your eyes don’t match the data recorded about what actually happened then I usually make a point to straighten out the facts. Your perception of what will happen is just as accurate as anyone else’s forecast of the future. I personally hope Breslow is not conservative in his actions but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was. I’d have more respect for him if he wasn’t because we just witnessed a bad GM who was ultra conservative destroy our favorite team. I don’t want to wait four more years to see it come back to glory.
What are you talking about Abreu has played a little more then 2200 innings since 2021 in the outfield and he has thrown out 31 guys Rafaela has played just over 2000 innings in the outfield since he started playing there in 2021 and he’s thrown out 20 in that time period. So if you don’t like my eye test the numbers the stats support Abreu having the most consistent arm in the outfield. In right field he’s thrown out the same amount as Rafaela has 2000 innings in 633 innings. Abreu has the more accurate arm and is better suited for right field. Rafaela has never played right he’s a center fielder and center field is where you want your best defensive outfielder. It’s a no brainer assuming they all hit it’s the inferior arm of Duran in left, Rafaela in center where he excels and the arm and quality defense of Abreu in right.
I know your going to make the argument that but Betts played mostly all centerfield in the minors but was moved into right field when he got to Boston but that would be a poor argument. The Red Sox already had an elite defensive center fielder in JBJ and Mookie has to move to right in deference to JBJ. It’s true that right field in Fenway is maybe the toughest right field in baseball but you still want your best defender in center if for no other reason that you play half your games on the road. It’s really quite simp,e and really not up for debate Rafaela plays center and he is flanked in left by Duran and Right by Abreu. That’s the best defensive alignment with the current roster in the outfield.
Oh and yes KD Trevor Story was elite defensively when he came back from his surgically repaired arm. It doesn’t matter what defensive metrics or old school method you look at was outstanding defensively. He would of easily been the gold glove shortstop in the AL if he played a full year since Franco got suspended. He was basically Swanson defensively fir those 40 games and that’s elite. I will say it’s only 40 games and we will have to see how he holds up over the season but he’s one of the top defensive shortstops in the league when healthy.
Bruin1012 – Story has been an above league average SS in his career. Elite defensively I think is a stretch but that’s not to suggest he’s not better than good enough to play in Boston. His 2 errors in 141 chances is roughly a third of a normal season of above league average play. His fielding percentage was .986 compared to league average .972. FYI… Bogey put up a .985 fielding percentage in SD in 543 total chances compared to the 141 by Story. Nobody considers Bogey elite but I’ve always argued that he’s way above league average and Story’s short stint was comparable in 2023. FYI… Story and Bogey have the exact same fielding percentage for their 7 and 11 year careers. If you took offense to me suggesting he’s not elite it’s only because I don’t believe anyone ever called Bogey elite and they are comparable.
Bruin1012 – Ignoring the fact that the best athlete plays RF in Fenway is your choice but your argument about the minors being a lead-in to the MLB position is completely bogus. The team will play each player at the position he is needed at the most. Rafaela who will be playing in the future in the Boston outfield is the logical left fielder based on arm and athleticism. Duran due to his speed and defensive skills belongs in center field and Anthony who is the slugger will be in left field. Notice there is no Abreu once Anthony is ready. That’s because he’s by far the weakest hitter and no amount of perceived or imagined defense will move him ahead of the big three of the future when it comes to the Boston outfield.
I know you are a fan of Abreu so enjoy any playing time he gets before Anthony arrives because he’s a fourth outfielder at best from a skill set stand point. There is nothing wrong with being a huge fan of a guy to the point of not seeing him for what he really is. Abreu will struggle this year and if Anthony starts fast, Abreu will need an injury to get a shot at an outfield spot going forward.
If you keep arguing that minor league positions matter more than physical skills I’m going to have to doubt that you actually played the game. It can’t be farther from the truth that a guy who played CF in the minors could be a star RF in the majors, especially with a massive and difficult right field design like at Fenway.
All I’m saying best outfield alignment to start the next season is Rafaela in center flanked by the inferior defensive player in every way Duran in left and the very good defensive outfielder in right Abreu. It’s a no Brainer if they all hit. Could Abreu fall flat on his face yes he could could Rafaela fall flat yes he could is it possible that Duran falls flat of course it is. We don’t know.
What I am sure of is you obviously haven’t watched many if at all games at AAA Worcester this year. If you did you would know nobody ran on Abreu after a couple months he was gunning everyone. Rafaela is a centerfielder and that’s where he will play. Duran and his poor routes and the weakest arm by far should be in left it’s a no Brainer. My suggestion before you make comments you get the Milb channel go back and watch Worcester games because you obviously haven’t. Once you have done that and educated yourself then come back and talk to me.
When it comes to Devers I generally agree with you he’s better off being a DH . He just hasn’t improved defensively and even if you subscribe to defensive metrics he’s been awful their as well except for one outlier year. The reason I don’t talk about him becoming a DH because as long as Cora is the manager at least this year Devers is going to play third so I’m not unde the delusion that anything other then Devers playing third is happening. I do think by having Story at short all season all season and if they DH Masa then Bostons defense will be improved. It’s hard to overstate how bad Enrique was at short last year. As bad as Devers was and he was bad Hernandez was much worse and contributed to the bad defense much more the Devers. The outfield defense will be really good if Masa DH’s leaving third base and to a lesser extent 2nd base as defensive weaknesses. I believe that Casas will greatly improve at first and while he’s never going to be Walker defensively at first he has soft hands and should be at least adequate at first. Boston’s defense will be better next year.
TF – I believe to appease Breslow, since he wasn’t allowed to can Cora, he was given the option of hiring his own pitching coach and 3B coach.
What is your opinion of Fatse? I think he’s decent, but his top priority for 2024 should be to get Story going.
Fever – What’s the duties of a 3B coach? Seems to me he’s an implementer of strategy created by the manager. I still believe Cora will be gone and a new manager who has requested the pitching coach and 3B coach will be named in the not too distant future. That way Breslow is in full control and free from the back stabbing that Cora did to DD and Bloom. I only include Bloom because so many have suggested there was a riff that never surfaced when Bloom was still employed. Bottom line, Cora having direct access to ownership allows him influence he should NOT have and an ability to back stab the GM, coaches and players. Breslow needs to shut that down by hiring his own guy to manage.
Seems like there should be more going on with the Sox by now. Something else smart like Campbell.
team – Winter Meetings, that’s when it all goes down.