Phillies slugger Nick Castellanos has seen his name pop up on the rumor mill this week, with Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reporting that the team is “open” to moving him in a potential trade. There’s no indication any deal is close at this time.
Frankly, it’s only natural that the Phillies would be open to moving Castellanos. He’s entering the third season of a five-year, $100MM contract and has not played up to expectations to this point. Castellanos’ 2023 campaign (.272/.311/.476, 29 homers) was far better than his 2022 season (.263/.305/.389, 13 home runs), but it still wasn’t anywhere close to the standout production he turned in with the Reds during his final season in Cincinnati (.309/.362/.576, 34 homers).
Castellanos has never graded as even an average defender in the outfield, and his two seasons in Philadelphia haven’t changed that. He’s played just over 2300 innings in right field with the Phils and been dinged for -17 Defensive Runs Saved. Ultimate Zone Rating pegs him at -20.2, and Statcast has him at 19 outs below average. The huge offensive output that Castellanos produced in 2018, 2019 and 2021 more than offset his shaky glovework, but he was below average at the plate with the Phils in 2022 and only about nine percent better than average at the plate in 2023 (by measure of wRC+, which weights for home park and league run-scoring environment).
As with any free-agent signing, the Phillies were surely most interested in the first few years of the long-term deal to which they inked Castellanos. He’s played out his age-30 and age-31 seasons in red pinstripes and is now heading into his age-32 campaign. As he moves into his mid-30s, it stands to reason that Castellanos’ defense will only slip further. His average sprint speed (as measured by Statcast) dipped from 27.7 feet per second in 2022 to 27.2 in 2023. That checks into the 46th percentile of MLB players, and his arm strength (83.5 mph average on his throws) tied for 142nd out of 152 qualified outfielders.
There are also some red flags in his offensive profile; Castellanos has seen his exit velocity and barrel rates drop in Philadelphia, while this past season’s 27.6% strikeout rate was the worst of his career in a full 162-game season. He’s never walked at an especially high clip, but his patience is also on the decline. Castellanos drew a free pass in 7.3% of his plate appearances during his final two seasons with the Reds. That’s dropped to 5.3% in two seasons with the Phillies. Meanwhile, he’s chasing pitches off the plate more than ever before (43.1% with the Phils; 37.1% in his career prior). As a result, his contact rate has plummeted. This past season’s 66.6% contact rate is nearly five percentage points south of his career 71.5% mark.
There’s virtually no way the Phillies would be able to move the entirety of Castellanos’ contract and receive something of value in return. Even just getting someone to take on the entire contract in a straight salary dump might not be feasible.
That said, it’s a woeful crop of free agent bats, and Castellanos still popped 29 homers with an above-average batting line. A club with more playing time at designated hitter could have some interest in swapping out an underwater contract of its own that better fits the Phillies’ roster. The Phils could also pay down some of Castellanos’ contract, but they’d likely need to include a substantial amount of cash in order to make it a palatable deal for a trade partner — let alone to acquire meaningful players in return.
The free-agent market, for instance, features right-handed bats of generally similar skill set in the form of Teoscar Hernandez, Jorge Soler, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Hunter Renfroe. Hernandez is a year younger than Castellanos. Gurriel is two years younger. Taking on Castellanos at $60MM for his age-32 through age-34 seasons when there are younger and/or less expensive comparables on the free-agent market isn’t likely to hold widespread appeal throughout the league. Soler, in particular, is coming off a stronger season at the plate but might not even cost as much as the remaining sum on Castellanos’ contract.
Given the overall lack of quality bats on the market, it’s possible there’ll be some interest in acquiring Castellanos at a lower price than what’s left on his five-year deal. That the Phillies are “open” to trading him should come as no surprise. Actually finding a way to facilitate a deal would be another story.
Like most Phillies hitters, he’s incredibly streaky. He gets completely locked in and hits back to back multiple homerun games in the NLCS. Then gets ice cold in the NLDS going 1 for 22. It’s rough, but that’s what this Phillies team is. They can beat anyone. They can lose to anyone. It depends which way the offense is streaking. The pitching always keeps them in games. I think the Phillies are better off keeping Nicky C.
You really think so? He’s 32? Obviously hit his apex and the phillies bought out his performance for that year with the reds? He’s a prime candidate for age related decline if he’s already not in it? He did make some really standout non characteristic gold glove caliber huge diving plays in the field for the phillies in the past two years playoff runs…
I agree about his age, but really what’s the return going to be? They need his bat. They lost in the playoffs because of a lack of offense.
They lost cause they got out played? Still would of rather had a Texas vs Phillies WS? but Arizona beat them in a place they have a .700 winning percentage at in the playoffs? Bryce Harper flying out? Dude is Like the best hitter on the planet? Sad to see anyone making excuses for ‘Atta Boy’ Harper… if only Orlando Arcia was there to give Him another Atta Boy maybe the Phillies wouldn’t have gone ice cold? Kept the fire stoked?
Life and baseball is a question.
For Hippy, it is a series of questions.
Questions like: How can I turn a benign, agreeable statement into an argument? Why does everyone I love leave me? and What the heck does benign mean anyway?
Who would you sign to replace Castellanos if they were able to trade him? The Phillies next big contract is going to a pitcher, hopefully Aaron Nola.
@VonPurpleHayes What’s the actual proof that the Phillies are streaky? Do they have more winning and losing streaks of x, x+1, x+2,… games than the average team? (I know–the study has not been done. Just saying.)
It would also be interesting to see the data showing how many streaky hitters you need to meet the definition of a “streaking team,” then how many of those streaky hitters need to be streaking in the same direction in order to begin creating unusual winning streaks or losing streaks.
Does this affect the 162 season adversely? Depends on how many games it takes for streakiness to even out, if it does, and if the Phillies team in fact meets that definition.
No offense, but I doubt there’s anything meaningful in your comment. As for the Phillies in October, we’d also need for that streakiness to occur (1) during the comparatively brief stretch of games comprising the postseason, and (2) for that streakiness to meaningfully supplant other possible outcomes provided by less streaky lineups who otherwise deliver wRC+ or your preferred, telling stat during that stretch. For a streaky lineup to tilt even one game during a 7 game series because of that streakiness seems unlikely, never mind all the other issues at play, such as that lineup tilting one game, but you lost the series 4-1 anyway. And so on.
It doesn’t take a lifelong Phillies fan to notice the tale of two teams in Philadelphia during the 2023 postseason. For 8 games to start the 2023 postseason they looked like the greatest team ever assembled, then they suddenly hit .179 as a team with a .559 ops.
Just because something can’t/hasn’t been measured doesn’t make Von’s comment inherently wrong.
Of course it does. In the absence of evidence in a game where we measure EVERYTHING, claims without evidence are just air.
Might be air that leads to something so it might be worth floating, but that’s when the actual work begins–not ends.
There is evidence though. Just look at the Phillies month over month stats.
It’s possible that there’s no quantifiable proof of this “streakiness” stat, but I don’t know if it’s possible for any team. I do know that any Phillies fan is going to see what happened in the 2022 and 23 postseason and come away with it wanting a more dependable lineup.
The Phils were no-hit victims in last year’s World Series and this year’s NLCS speaks for itself. Any 2-week span of Phillies games runs through the feast-or-famine gamut, just maybe not in a metrics-driven fashion.
I honestly thought this year’s drought could have been helped by more creative work on the lineup by Rob Thomson. There was a lot of talk all season about the guys feeling comfortable with their spot in the order and it mostly stayed the same all season. When an opposing manager can go into a 7-game series knowing how every game is going to look in terms of R/L matchup, power profile, and chase rate, their bullpen strategy relies less on coin-flip probability and more on integer math.
The Phillies don’t need Castellanos. I like him, he’s a great dude. He chases too much at the plate (facts backed by metrics) and is a dud fielder (facts backed by metrics). It’s not a “good riddance to bad rubbish” thing, there are just better cheaper RF candidates out there. Lourdes Gurriel would be a great addition to the team.
Evidence?
baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&te…
Tells the story of a streaky team pretty well.
How you break that down into shorter streaks I don’t know unless you have the time to break game logs down for those same stats. I don’t. Maybe the Stathead system on Baseball Reference can do that?
Everyone is talking past each other on the streakiness of the Phillies. It’s not whether they are or aren’t, it that everyone else is also. It’s inevitable and teams try to minimize the drastic swings as much as possible.
For example, the Braves monthly OPS:
May – .788
June – .940
July – .821
August – .891
Sept – .845
Comparing this to the Phillies, it’s pretty much the same. One scorching hot month and everything else is +- .050
Why do you need mountains of evidence to support every take? The Phillies are a very streaky team. Watch them play. It’s not that hard.
Short of that, look at the monthly splits of the guys in their lineup because there are some huge ups and downs. On the one hand, you can see June Schwarber or April Marsh, and on the other hand you can see September Stott and July Castellanos. That streakiness alone is probably what cost them the NLCS if you look at how they started the series against how they got shut down at the end of it.
I feel like you wrote a few paragraphs just to argue about nothing with the original comment.
MC
“Why do you need mountains of evidence to support every take? ”
Yes. Why should you look at something in a reasoned way, when you could just guess and assume that you’re right instead?
Because you’re wrong.. That’s why.
Here’s someone who actually looked at and didn’t just assume that they were right
blogs.fangraphs.com/were-going-streaking-again/
“In this sample, there were 938 players who had 500 plate appearances in consecutive seasons (a player can count more than once, e.g. playing from 2001-2003 means that both the pair from 2001-2002 and the pair from 2002-2003 are included). Each blue dot represents a player’s streakiness in two consecutive seasons. How far the dot is to the right indicates how streaky he was in the first season, and how far the dot is toward the top indicates how streaky he was the next season. This is just a sea of randomness. Clearly, there is no relationship at all between the two
…
Knowing a player’s streakiness in one season effectively gives us no ability at all to predict his streakiness in the next. In fact, even knowing a player’s streakiness in three consecutive seasons gives us no ability to say anything about the fourth. Streakiness also appears random within a given season: correlation between streakiness from one month to the next (minimum 100 PA) is r = 0.013, which is, again, not statistically different from zero (N = 3,844, p = 0.413)”
Streakiness doesn’t exist.
Now.
How are you going to react? I see 4 likely options
Most likely, you’ll not understand the article, either because you didn’t read or because you don’t know math well enough, and you’ll insist that it’s wrong and you are right.
Don’t do that. It’s dumb.
Next, most likely, you’ll just ignore it completely and not respond.
Unlikely, you’ll accept the data and refine your views.
Not likely at all, you’ll re-run the data for last season and present your findings showing whether or not the 2023 Phillies actually were streaky.
Awaiting your response.
Option five is that I genuinely don’t care enough to get into an argument over this. What an incredibly condescending comment.
I appreciate all the stats and numbers you want to reference and normally I’m on the side of metrics myself, but the simple eye test can tell you that they’re a streaky team. This lineup has periods of being hot and periods of being cold. That’s streaky. I don’t care about historical context here or whatever data you want to provide — that’s literally the entire extent of the point I was making.
I’m only responding to you so that your most likely assessment of my response is wrong. I appreciate that you have the time to await my response; maybe you should do something more productive with it instead.
MC
“I appreciate all the stats and numbers you want to reference and normally I’m on the side of metrics myself, but the simple eye test can tell you that they’re a streaky team.”
You clearly went with the first option of ignoring the evidence and insisting that you were right anyway, it was, obviously, quite predictable. People like you always are.
An excellent example of Dunning-Kruger – you’re wrong, it’s obvious that you’re wrong, but you don’t understand enough about the topic to know that you’re wrong,
WOW Let’s tear a strip off the Phillies fans who are disappointed in their team as if that isn’t enough negativity in their life. Have ever watched a game or a series of games and hoped your team would improve or go on a winning streak? You analyze the bejesus out of every game and call that enjoyment then go for it. I can watch my favorite team and see if they are hot or not on a streak or not without all the mathematics. Leave the guy alone, sheesh!
Filihok, you’re excellent at evaluating others, but maybe evaluate your own responses as well? You are coming across as extremely arrogant and condescending, and do you think anyone wants to have a discussion with that guy? Nothing you’re saying is wrong, but people flexing their knowledge of Dunning-Kruger in a baseball website comment section are generally past the point of conversation and are geared up for some sort of fight, and most people here don’t want to waste their time talking to said people, no matter how correct the information you’re saying may be.
The delivery of your knowledge is as important if not more important than the knowledge itself. If you can’t communicate said knowledge in an effective way then you’re doing nothing but wasting your own time.
I hope you can read these words and take them as they are intended and not as an attack. That being said, there is a certain degree of irony in trying to capture streakiness. By sheer definition of the word it should be near impossible to capture streakiness with data, otherwise it wouldn’t be streaky, it would be predictable. So keep that in mind while claiming you can absolutely 100% say without a doubt because of one study that streakiness has been proven to not exist, because not being able to predict streakiness actually proves its existence.
Lemon
“do you think anyone wants to have a discussion with that guy?”
Do you honestly think the people behind comments like these
“Why do you need mountains of evidence to support every take? The Phillies are a very streaky team. Watch them play. It’s not that hard.”
Are interested in having a discussion?
Like children, they are already sure that they know everything,
Or, to borrow a phrase
“past the point of conversation and are geared up for some sort of fight, ”
Well, they wanted a fight, and they got it. And they got pummeled so far into oblivion, that, D-K style, they don’t know they got pummeled into oblivion.
I don’t believe there was a way to communicate the knowledge effectively to people who have already closed their mind to the possibility that they could be wrong.- “Why do you need mountains of evidence to support every take? The Phillies are a very streaky team. Watch them play. It’s not that hard.”
So, why not entertain myself for a bit at their expense?
Moving on
“there is a certain degree of irony in trying to capture streakiness. By sheer definition of the word it should be near impossible to capture streakiness with data, otherwise it wouldn’t be streaky, it would be predictable. ”
Why should this be true? What about a streak imp.ies unpredictability?
“not being able to predict streakiness actually proves its existence.”
How so
Again, there is a huge difference between saying that a player IS streaky vs saying that they WERE streaky,
The only actual look at the data shows no evidence that players ARE streaky. None.
That a player WAS streaky, that’s a different story,
First, the term needs to be defined. Streaky jn relation to what? In relation to their past performance? To the performance of other players? To the performance of some imaginary consistent player?
Then it needs to be showed that the player was more streaky over a given time frame than that baseline.
Of course, no one here has come remotely close to doing that,
They just see some players with NORMAL variation and say “oh my god, how streaky”
I’m perfectly willing to have a reasoned conversation with someone else who is
There guys weren’t, and they don’t even seem capable.
Attempting to do so would be the real waste of time.
The proof is in the stats. This isn’t controversial. Anyone who watched the Phillies the last two seasons could tell you the same. Guys like Casty, Realmuto, Schwarber, Turner and Harper got extremely hot or cold for weeks at a time. The infuriating thing was they seemed to do it all at the same time. There were times when these guys had little league at bats that were embarrassingly bad. As soon as I saw the swings in Game 3 of the NLCS, I saw the cold streak coming. I was hoping they’d break out of it, but they never did. They’re absolutely a team of streaky hitters. It’s their strength and weakness.
VPH
“The proof is in the stats. This isn’t controversial.”
Same comment to you that I just made for MC
You see, the problem is
“Anyone who watched the Phillies the last two seasons could tell you the same.”
You can’t just watch one team. That doesn’t tell you anything about how they are in relation to other teams. It’s like watching someone play baseball, saying, “Oh man, they are the best in the world” without ever watching anyone else in the world. Makes 0 sense.
Here’s someone who actually looked at and didn’t just assume that they were right
blogs.fangraphs.com/were-going-streaking-again/
“In this sample, there were 938 players who had 500 plate appearances in consecutive seasons (a player can count more than once, e.g. playing from 2001-2003 means that both the pair from 2001-2002 and the pair from 2002-2003 are included). Each blue dot represents a player’s streakiness in two consecutive seasons. How far the dot is to the right indicates how streaky he was in the first season, and how far the dot is toward the top indicates how streaky he was the next season. This is just a sea of randomness. Clearly, there is no relationship at all between the two
…
Knowing a player’s streakiness in one season effectively gives us no ability at all to predict his streakiness in the next. In fact, even knowing a player’s streakiness in three consecutive seasons gives us no ability to say anything about the fourth. Streakiness also appears random within a given season: correlation between streakiness from one month to the next (minimum 100 PA) is r = 0.013, which is, again, not statistically different from zero (N = 3,844, p = 0.413)”
Streakiness doesn’t exist.
Now.
How are you going to react? I see 4 likely options
Most likely, you’ll not understand the article, either because you didn’t read or because you don’t know math well enough, and you’ll insist that it’s wrong and you are right.
Don’t do that. It’s dumb.
Next, most likely, you’ll just ignore it completely and not respond.
Unlikely, you’ll accept the data and refine your views.
Not likely at all, you’ll re-run the data for last season and present your findings showing whether or not the 2023 Phillies actually were streaky.
Awaiting your response.
Streakiness does exist, the article you cite says as much. Its just not predictable year to year, thats all it showed. But by the same token, any player can be steadier or streakier year to year, perhaps in two or three consecutive years. If you understood math better, you’d know that.
Theres an easier route at the player level. Castellanos’ monthly OPS distribution (which has the highest correlation w runs scored) in 2023 has a big variance from his career monthly averages. Same with 2022… so those are two consecutive streaky seasons as opposed to his norms.so he’s been streakier than normal w the phillies. Which plenty have validated through observation as well.
Ma
“Streakiness does exist, the article you cite says as much. Its just not predictable year to year, thats all it showed. But by the same token, any player can be steadier or streakier year to year, perhaps in two or three consecutive years. If you understood math better, you’d know that.”
Sigh
The premise that Castellanos and the Phillies are streaky, then, is incorrect if streakiness doesn’t exist. Correct?
Streaks exist. Sure. But no one p.ayer, or group of players, can be said to be streaker than any other,
That’s not the same as saying that a player was streaky over a given time frame,
You understand that, right?
”
Castellanos’ monthly OPS distribution (which has the highest correlation w runs scored)”
Provide your citation for this, please. (You won’t)
“he’s been streakier than normal w the phillies.”
Provide your citation for this as well, please
Sure, it may be true that Castellanos was more streaky with the Phillies than he was previously. But that’s not the claim that was put forward, was it?
Ma
Here’s the original claim that started this off
“Like most Phillies hitters, [Castellanos is] incredibly streaky.”
That is NOT supported by the study
Maybe Castellanos and other Phillies hitters, WERE more streaky than average [either in comparison to themselves or hitters as a whole) in 2023. That could be shown to be true or not true. Note: it has not been shown to be true by anyone here.
That they ARE streaker than other hitters has also not been shown. And the only evidence that has been provided (the study I’m referencing) showed that specific players are not more or less streaky than others. This contradicts the original claim.
Understand?
Filihok, your approach is rubbing people the wrong way but I appreciate you are trying to substantial your argue with solid stats which I appreciate.
“Streaks exist. Sure. But no one p.ayer, or group of players, can be said to be streaker than any other”
I think everything you’re saying is factually correct, except the conclusion. It sounds like “everyone is streaky, and no more streaky than any other player or team” therefore the Phillies/NC/ or anyone else isn’t streaky.
2 things:
1)If everyone is streaky (I agree, it’s in the nature of the sport) then everyone is streaky to some extent and every team is can be streaky to various degrees, past present and (you would argue) future.
2)It is not binary. You are not “either streaky or not streaky”, because there are all variances in performance. So the argument everyone is having is silly. Everyone has streaks of various deviation. Some have higher highs, and lower lows.
RD
“your approach is rubbing people the wrong way”
Shrug emoji
Everyone saying without evidence or understanding is rubbing me the wrong way, so, it’s only fair
“2)It is not binary. You are not “either streaky or not streaky”, because there are all variances in performance. So the argument everyone is having is silly. Everyone has streaks of various deviation. Some have higher highs, and lower lows.”
Here’s the rub. No evidence has been presented to say that any player or group of players or team is any more or less streaky than any other. Evidence has been presented which says the opposite.
Again, a player may, during any given time period be more or less streaky than either their average or league average or whatever baseline you want to set. No player should he expected to be more or less streaky than that baseline.
If everyone is streaky. And there is no correlation between past and future streakiness, then either every player is streaky or no player is streaky, and it makes zero sense to talk about any player being more streaky than another.
Note: that’s different than saying that a specific player WAS more streaky than another during a given time frame.
Possibly one of the worst incidents of run on I’ve seen in quite awhile.
Oh no. Its not in the top 10 this week.
JSb
100
The Phillies hired him to protect Harper in the lineup. He can’t do that. He only hit well when he dropped down to the 7th hole. He crumbles under expectation.
The Phillies need better than f’ with Philly Man- and honestly that wouldn’t take a lot
Comet, He hit .300 with an .853 ops out of the 4 hole this year. He slumped in July and that when they moved him, but he did perfectly fine protecting Harper throughout the year.
“Wouldn’t take a lot” to replace 100+ RBI, is incorrect. It is not easily replaced production.
RicD
““Wouldn’t take a lot” to replace 100+ RBI, is incorrect. It is not easily replaced production.”
No, it’s actually fairly easy
RBI is largely dependent upon batting order and how many runners are on base when a batter comes up to the plate.
Last year, Castellanos batted with 443 runners on base. That was the 11th most in baseball.
He drove in 17.6% of them. That was 90th.
Now, that includeds some hitters who just had a few PA’s with runners on, but, come on, 90th?
He knocked in a lower percentage of baserunners than Dan Vogelbach. Less than Rob Refsnyder. Nicky Lopez drove in a higher percentage of base runners than Castellanos did. So did Nelson Cruz. Noted sluggers Yan Gomes and MIke Tachman both drove in over 18% of the runners on base when they batted. Kevin Pillar was over 20%.
There was nothing special about how Castellanos drove in runs last year.
I have some of the orders different than you, with Nicky Lopez and Cruz both below NC.
Regardless it is a good observation, but cherry-picked and hard to action based on. Pretending you can slot vogelbach in the 4 hole behind Bryce and replicate that production is naive.
Also, I’d like to use your logic for the people who were below him on that list:
Freeman – 16.52
Bryce – 16.19
Judge – 16.17
Vlad Jr – 15.70
Teoscar – 15.02
Arozarena – 14.82
Adolis – 14.47
So either all of these managers are wrong to bat these guys in the 3 and 4 spot mostly, or it’s a flawed argument.
baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/RBIPCT.py?StartDate=03…
RD
I used B-R’s numbes which may be calculated differently. They don’t count RBI they count runners that scored. That might be the discrepancy,
“So either all of these managers are wrong to bat these guys in the 3 and 4 spot mostly, or it’s a flawed argument.”
Or you misunderstood rhe argument
I didn’t argue ANYTHING about where anyone should bat in the order.
I just said that the number of RBI a player gets is largely dependent on the number of runners on base when they bat.
Castellanos, Freeman, Acuña, etc would all have a hard time driving in 100 runs if you, me and comet were hitting in front of them.
Castellanos wasn’t anything special at driving in runners last year. He got to 100 RBi because there were a lot of guys on base for him.
Filihok, you are the reason people don’t like analytics nerds
ts
There are so much stupid packed into those 10 words
Impressive
This article just feels like engagement farming. Will they trade him and his contract, send a ton of cash and prospects to a team….to get a slightly better version of him??? Besides Bellinger, there isnt a whole lot out there on the free agency market, let alone trade market. It seems like a reach, imo.
Remember that the Phillies also have a spot open where Hoskins isn’t. I think the fielding advantage that can be acquired in those slots with some 70-80 RBI hard-hitters would be the trick.
I think an FA could replace Hoskins and Castellanos would be a decent trade for a team in need of some seasoned players. O’s, Tigers, Royals, somewhere in that class of teams. The Rockies GM likes seeing his name in the paper too, he’d be down for a pointless trade 🙂
I was thinking that way, too. The way Castellanos was hitting in the NLCS made me think MVP but then he just died. Can’t speak to the Phillies as a whole, but Castellanos drop suggests a backstory unrelated to baseball.
As soon as I saw him swinging with his helmet flying off aka Odubal Herrera, I knew he was toast for the duration. My impression of him is that he doesn’t have great instincts for adjusting and he’s gotten away with his athleticism but as he ages, it’s not going to improve. In other words, no upside.
Agreed. He reminds me a lot of Nick Swisher with the exception that Swisher switch hit and was a little better in the outfield. But Swisher was very similar. Valuable but over paid player who disappears in the playoffs.
Other than he switch hit, was better in the OF defensively, and worked the count, getting lots of walks, Nick Swisher is totally unlike Nick Castellanos. They do both have the same first name though.
Swisher walked more. Castellanos hits for more power. But the funny thing is I said Swisher REMINDS me of Castellanos. Not Castellanos is Swisher. Even though they both have identical career ops of .799.Very similar in that both are streaky and disappear in the playoffs which Swisher always did and Castellanos except for the nlds. Valuable but overpaid.
The Nationals take Castellanos and his entire contract off their hands if the Phillies include Griff MCGarry or Orion Kerkering.
BB
“The Nationals take Castellanos and his entire contract off their hands if the Phillies include Griff MCGarry or Orion Kerkering.”
BTV has Castellanos at -39 ?million
They have Kerkering and McGarry each at around 5 million
According to those valuations, the Phillies would still need to put in $30+ million in value.
I like to Pittsburgh for Bednar (eat 75% of contract) and Andrew Painter.
Could be an option for the Cubs at 1B. I assume he’d make an average defensive 1B.. he played well in Chicago before. Could be a fit.
1B with some DH duties. The challenge is that most contending clubs who would want his bat, and be willing to pay for it, either have someone in the 1B/DH roles or would want more production out of those spots. The Phils are going to have to eat some money if they want to move Casty.
Taillon for Castellanos – who says no?
I say no. Only on the basis of wanting to see how Taillon performs with Counsell. And we’ve got Morel as our Castellanos.
Cubs. I am not a fan of trading a starting pitcher for a comparable level and comparably priced non-skill position player. Starting pitching is too rare and decent=hitting outfielders are too common.
Phillies absolutely say no.
In my opinion, best baseball movie in theatrical history, For Love of the Game
I agree… great movie
I’d still go with Bull Durham because I can so relate to Crash Davis being a former catcher. But both my wife and I love that movie too.
It’s one of the better chick flicks I’ve seen
Bull Durham, For Love of the Game and Field of Dreams all have 2 things in common
All are movies about baseball and all starred Kevin Costner
Fever Pitch
Ryan if the cubs wanted him he would have stayed first time so would the reds so dopey logic I think
I don’t know why, but Castellanos feels so White Sockie, not so much Cubbie. He has that underperformer, bad luck, easily forgotten type of super talent that would fit in well on the southside.
Dude can’t seem to finish out a contract. He opted out of the four year one with the Reds and now seems to have worn out his welcome in Philly.
I don’t think he’s worn out his welcome, I just think the Phillies are open to moving him if the right deal comes along. I can’t envision them aggressively marketing him and doing everything they can to run him out of town.
The Phillies under DD will spend. it’s more likely by clearing Hoskins and potentially Castellanos, he likely swoops in under the radar for Ohtani or Soto.
Castellenos interruptus
Nick decided to opt out of Cincinnati because he had a great year in 2021 and he was able to cash in on it in Free Agency. It’s true the Reds didn’t try to extend him, but we both know that had more to do with the Castellinis cheapness more than anything else. I enjoyed watching Nick play for the Reds and by all accounts he was loved in the club house. If he has worn out his welcome in Philadelphia, I suspect it has more to do with his salary than anything else.
Your comment is based on only two data points. 1) He opted to leave to get the most money. Success on his part. 2) A MLBTR article that’s already been refuted.
Refuted by rumor, just as this is a rumor. You claim certainty of refuting this when you have no more idea than anyone else.
It is difficult to believe a professional athlete can’t make himself an, at least, average outfielder. He has every avenue to improve at his disposal.
There are always going to be below average players, almost by definition. If everyone improved to at least average, then the average would go up and there’d be below average players again.
Yes, I understand the mathematical concept propelling the word “average,” but “it is difficult to believe” a player would be unable to improve upon such woeful defence as Castellanos’.
Maybe he is trying to improve, but just can’t. Not making excuses for him, but everyone has limitations.
The thing is it’s not like he’s incompetent on a typical human level, he’s incompetent on a pro athlete level. I think I have decent athleticism for a regular Joe in my 30s, but if I went out and played RF defense in the show, I’m pretty sure Castellanos’ defense would look amazing in comparison.
Not every player has the talent to improve the aspects of their game where their weaknesses are most prevalent. The same reason Castellanos can’t improve his fielding is the same reason players like Rougned Odor can’t stop hacking at every pitch, the same reason players like Carlos Marmol can’t stop walking every other hitter they face, and the same reason players like Brent Suter will never throw 95 mph fastballs. It’s just not who they are.
Cronenworth for him straight up!
How much is that Cronenworth?
Ability and willingness are two different things. But if a guy is not fast and doesn’t have a strong throwing arm, it’s hard to be a good outfielder
How much is that Cronenworth extension? 7/80? And how much is Castellanos owed? 3/60? That’s a huge difference in AAV. I think the Phillies would have to include a prospect or two to make that work.
There are going to be below average players, exactly by definition.
… the concept of a bad defensive player improving is extraordinarily simple. Castellanos is a rotten outfielder who has poor positioning, poor reads, poor throws, and, I can only assume, a questionable baseball IQ. I appreciate the condescending explanation of “average”- but, my god, man. Try watching a game sometime. A “game” is defined as …
If he has a questionable baseball IQ, it’s difficult to just improve that. Have you ever interacted with a dumb person? No amount of studying or education will change the fact that it takes them longer to process information or carry out simple tasks. They can improve their knowledge for their entire lives, but it won’t change the fact that it takes them twice as long to do a math problem as someone with average intelligence and the same level of knowledge. Improving his reads in the outfield implies improving his brain’s processing speed when Castellanos just isn’t wired that way.
He has markedly improved, and has probably maxed out what he’s got to give. His early years in Detroit featured some real mitt carnage.
His spiteful refusal back when to take grounders at first base either paid off handsomely with that Phillie contract, or cost his career several extra and effective years at 1B.
He was born with the hand-eye hit tool. He was also gifted with the gawky, clunky, runs-on-his-heels-so-the-ball-bounces, iron hands, lack-of-instincts fielding tools.
It’s incredible not just that you wrote this comment, but that two people upvoted it.
Good lord.
He had 0 errors in 2023. Range is still subpar, but I think his defense is vastly improved. DRS is the most flawed stat in the sport IMO. I think he’s close to an average outfielder. I also think with 2 of the Marsh/Rojas/Pache combination out there, the Phillies OF is very solid.
You cant make errors on the batted balls you cant get to.
I agree, and his range is subpar. No argument there, but the idea that he’s awful out there is false IMO. He showed a strong arm and made a few unbelievable plays in key situations. Watching him all year he feels like an average outfielder. Definitely not good or great, but he doesn’t seem bad, especially with Rojas and Marsh out there. Schwarber on the other hand is unplayable.
VPH
“He showed a strong arm”
Per Statcast his arm strength was in the 36th percentile
Well below average.
” made a few unbelievable plays in key situations.”
Oftentimes, a play will look better than it is because the defender has a hard time getting to a ball. Diving when another player could just catch it, for example.
“Watching him all year he feels like an average outfielder. ”
No, he doesn’t.
See how useless just saying something is
The metrics don’t have him close to average. And he looks bad.
Thanks for your service. I disagree about the level of badness. I’ve seen Hoskins and Schwarber out there They were far worse. Casty with Marsh and Rojas was an OF I was confident in. Can they get a better corner OF? Certainly, but they need his bat.
This dork is getting a mute. Nothing worse that 30 year olds who still live with their parents responding to every little thing with “acktushaully” and then a 9 paragraph soliloquy. Obnoxious.
SBSD
There’s probably something worse (though, what’s worse is purely subjective)
What I find worse is people who have to make up insults because rhey have no real insult to give.
You have zero idea of anyone’s age or living status.
You can’t insult people with truth, so you have to resort to lies.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_aver…
Castellanos was terrible. Only a few guys that were worse.
Castellanos is clunky. He’s the type of guy who also wouldn’t ever be able to learn how to dance. He puts in the work, its just his body moves like Elaine Benes.
chuckle
In theory only 50% of OF are average or better.
Hence, if we are taking him as he is, he is still an above average answer in right. Imperfect, but not a bad solution even if more expensive than he should be.
The eyeball test means more than the defensive metrics. Much more than the statnerds are inclined to understand..
Castle was seriously improved this year, which does not mean that he is good out there. He does not run very well, and his arm is only OK but serviceable. He certainly is not a natural in the outfield, and frankly if he agreed to try things at first everyone might be better off (as much as I love the move to keep Bryce there). But he was basically an average fielder out there this year, which is an improvement for him. He made quicker and better reads, and made the plays on the balls that he reached. It ain’t particularly pretty to watch, but credit to both him and the coaches for getting more out of him. For defensive purposes, with Marsh and Rojas out there the Phils are just fine with him in RF.
At the plate, it probably won’t get better next year and beyond. The only hope is that Kevin Long works on his plate approach…a lot. But the reality is that, while we could improve upon him, if you look around there are very few options that are truly superior. As a hitter, the streakiness and chase rate are serious concerns and also predictors of a steep drop-off at some point. But if you do the math, it will be very hard to trade him for value without paying down the deal by quite a bit, and then you have to find / trade for that clear improvement. Is the cost going to make sense for the incremental return? I would give serious credit to DD if he can figure a way around this one.
Personally, think that they did the math already and realize that they would be threading the eye of the needle to exchange him for a net improvement out there, and their interests are better served focusing on pitching this winter.
Castellanos arm was in the bottom 30% in velocity of throws and bottom 5% in accuracy of throws. His range was in the bottom 5%. His reaction time was in the bottom 10% and his jump once he actually reacted was even worse. He caught 2% fewer balls hit to him than expected. In the subjective, eye test, he didn’t commit any errors but he didn’t get to balls that nearly any OF not named Schwarber would get to.
You can bury your head in the sand or click your cleats 3 times or make a wish on a shooting star and it’s not going to make Castellanos even an average outfielder on defense.
The reason that the Phillies should focus on pitching is that trading Castellanos is not possible without either eating another bad contract or adding good prospects to the deal or lots of money. All 3 of those options are bad for the team. They are stuck with him.
From what I was able to glean, Castellanos has something like ADHD and it’s hard for him to really buckle down and concentrate at times in the OF. I think he can go thru periods where he can get distracted, bored, and antsy standing out there , which puts him in a hole right off the bat if the ball is hit to him.
Well – there are baseball “metricians”, and then there is statnerdery. The irritants of the bunch are those that only talk baseball in metrics, while they clearly show that they have never been closer than the stands (if that) when it comes to the game. And they “shout out” the stats in every argument while brooking no opposition to their often subjectively offered metrics as they claim to so valiantly have all the answers..
Last year on defense, Castle was woeful. This year, he was generally solid. Not good, but he was better positioned with better reaction times and handled the position in a way that made him roughly average. – or good enough, everything else being equal.
Defensive metrics will continue to improve over time, however any qualified baseball analyst knows that they are merely a faint approximation at this point in their evolution.
Metrics are highly valuable and have been a great boon to all of sports when applied with experience and perspective by those that have a solid grasp on the game itself. The Saberdudes that think that the game should be totally run by the metrics-minded, however, have been a blight on this great game of baseball.
.
And then there are morons like you who don’t understand that they can measure things like how hard an OF throws and how far they ran to try to catch the ball. That we can know when a weak arm is a weak arm with absolute certainty.
Castellanos throws 83.5 mph from the OF. That is awful. Among the weakest arms in the league in RF. Compare that to Tatis at 96.6 mph. Castellanos accuracy with throws is atrocious. He hit the cutoff man just 36% of the time. Runners advanced a base 110 times on his arm, 98.8% of the time, the most of any RF. That is not a good thing.
You obviously have zero grasp on the sport or you never watched Castellanos play. Take your pick. Its one or the other.
No thank you
I don’t see it if Harper plays 1B.
Good luck with that Phillies lol
Bote & Smyly for Castellanos? Probably need a prospect or cash thrown in, though.
(I’m mostly joking because Castellanos’ time in Cubbie blue was so fun.)
What if they, like, moved him to 1B and tried that guy who shaved his beard in Right?
He’s now an expensive run of the mill DH. Many teams don’t even want a full time DH. They like to rotate their regulars in DH to give them a bit of a rest.
I agree with that, but what else would you expect from
him going into his age 32 season ? He has to be exactly where you expect him to be at this point of his contract. He fills a need in that lineup and any trade you would get less value for his position in return. Bet the Phillies are glad to have him
Maybe send him to the Angels for Tyler Anderson, assuming Ohtani departs.
rendon, tyler anderson and $50 mil, for nick castellanos. rendon and casty would be even, 3/60, and phils take on TA.
Yea angels want more aging money on the books again ,fan logic is dopey
No one on the above list is better
Mariners
Perfect fit imo. He will be much more costly than this article lays out
Padres maybe? Need 1st base / DH-type guy with some pop. Would depend on how much salary the Phils would eat.
The padres are talking about trading a 24 year old Soto. Why would they take on castellanos a way way way worse option. Theyre gonna let a generational player go to replace with a bum?
No they aren’t, plus the only people talking about trading Soto is the media not the padres
The padres gave no vote of confidence they wouldnt trade him. They have long term contracts and Soto is probably not gonna be another contract that sinks the padres. They have so many and fail to win. Soto is one year from free agency. Trading him would be their option to lower payroll and get some prospects. No one is taking one of those padres long term contracts. Not trading soto and allow him to reach FA when they wont extend him would be so foolisj
To get a 5.5 WAR player even for 1 year the Phillies would have to pay close to 100% of it plus throw in Painter, Abel, and De La Cruz.
I am only exaggerating a little bit. Castellanos has negative value. His bat is only marginally better than league average and his defense is atrocious. For his 1 WAR or so he is guaranteed $20 million for 3 more years.
3 years and $60 million remaining on his deal isn’t necessarily unmoveable but the Phillies are going to have to eat money or take a bad contract back in return.
DD likes to trade with the Angels. Lets try two hypothetical trade proposals
1) Castellanos, Mick Abel, Adian Miller, and maybe a pair of lower tiered prospects for Mike Trout
Or
2) Castellanos for Tyler Anderson and Jo Adell
Thoughts?
So castellanos for trout lol
Either of those 2 trades might would work and be beneficial but do the Angels have the balls to trade Trout if they lose Ohtani and does Trout say yes to a trade. If I’m the Angels and the Philles offered those deals I would strongly consider both. Angels would get out from under water on Trout’s deal and get a couple solid prospects plus some fodder. Castellanos probably doesn’t make them a contender but is no worse than some of the outfielders they ran out last year.
i think your option 1 makes sense for both especially when Ohtani leaves angels
Madness. Who in their right mind would take on Trout for nothing?
Even if you could throw Castellanos at the problem and no one else (and why would you trade actual value for Trout without major salary relief??), you’re still paying 7/200m for Mike, who has picked up all of 12.8 WAR from 2020 through 2023, or what will be known in half a decade as Trout’s “healthy years.”
LAA takes Castellanos, Schwarber, and throws $20-30m into the pot. PHIL gets Trout and said money to defray what has turned into an albatross. That’s workable.
No. No it’s not.
I do like trade number 1, I think it’s more likely the Phillies want to keep Abel, who could help them sooner. Phillies are in win now mode and I don’t think an unproven Adell fits that.
Alternate trade: Casty, Cristopher Sanchez, Griff McGarry, and younger prospects for Trout
Angels take all of Casty’s salary and Phillies take all of Trout’s
Rsox
BTV has Castelanos at -38.6 million
“2) Castellanos for Tyler Anderson and Jo Adell”
They also have Anderson at =3 an Adell at 0
So, the Phillies would need to chip in $35 million in cash of value. So, not a close deal.
“1) Castellanos, Mick Abel, Adian Miller, and maybe a pair of lower tiered prospects for Mike Trout”
BTV has Trout at -83.9
So, the Angels would need to add in nearly $50 million in value and that’s before Abell ($25 million) and Miller ($11 million)
So, your trade comes up $80 million (o One Ohtani plus) short.
#1 seems about right.
Phillies would have to add some serious Dinero, about $35 million, to make #2 equitable.
Marsh/Castellanos and Dominguez for Trout
So the Phils fix Marsh’s swing and then send him back? Oh the irony.
That’s a dumb, Cashman-like move. Marsh is more of a contact hitter and as good a defensive player as Rojas.
If you think of moving Nick, the good news is that rising prospect Carlos de la Cruz will be ready for the majors by the start of the ’25 season. (24 homers but 160 k’s at Reading this past season.)
baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=del…
Just to add a bit of levity to the mix…Rockies for Kris Bryant.
Thanks for the laugh….. Well at least that move doesn’t detract from the Phillies Hot Guy quotient….?
But pretty sure Philly would hate all the young ladies in Bryant jerseys and short shorts, like I still see here in chicago @cubs games….
They’d hate it even more when Bryant was sitting next to those ladies in about 95 games a season.
Don’t be hating on Kris Bryant’s baby blue eyes that’s what gets the ladies all in a tizzy lol
The reason the stadium fills up full of women.
Too bad we aren’t the Red Sox. We could just ask the Dodgers to bail us out.
(Kidding, mostly.)
Would be nice to see the Phillies draft and develop outfield talent instead of relying on contracts like these. I have hope for Crawford, but the farm system needs a lot of work. They can’t keep throwing money at their lack of ability to develop homegrown talent.
Agreed. There is something seriously deficient regarding a FO that ends up paying $20m AAV in free agency to BOTH corner outfield spots.
Schwarber doesn’t really play OF. Pure DH.
That’s supposed to say Schwarber SHOULDN’T really play OF. Pure DH.
Doesn’t works too.
Haha. Very true.
There is something seriously deficient regarding a FO that ends up paying $20m AAV in free agency to BOTH corner outfield spots.
========================
As I said at the time:
1-Both guys were bad contracts.
2-Bot guys were necessary contracts.
A bit like SD at the trade deadline, or what they didn’t do, sometimes you have to make deals that you don’t like, in order to protect the deals you do like.
I like the idea of a deal centered around Kepler and Castellanos. Phillies could use an OF who can play CF without a noodle of a bat. Twins need a rhb who can play 1B (no you can’t rely on Kirilloff)
Money would be tricky but it makes sense
No one signs anyone out of Cincinnati and doesn’t expect a drop off offensively. Its almost a given production – especially power – will diminish.
The real issue was, after he had a career year that seemed non coincidentally to have happened when he was as relieved of OF duties, signing him and sticking him back in the OF
The real issue may have been the absurdity of giving 5/$100 million to a DH turning 30 who, in the four years preceding his lucky, 2021 walk year, had put up a 118 OPS+.
Will Myers is available
Worth a look if the Phillies are willing to pay half his salary.
His series against AZ was just awful. Had it been at least average, Philly winds up playing Texas.
The numbers were astounding. What was it, something like 0 for 20 with 10K?
1 for 22 I believe. He had a homerun against Gallen.
Silly take, imo. I’m not a Casty fan, but you should recognize that he absolutely destroyed Atlanta.
Joe Brady that is what I was thinking. The Phillies and Casty completely destroyed my Braves. Sure he had a bad next series but he was almost impossible to get out in the ATL series prior.
Giants had some interest in him during FA, those of defense already stinks and at least he can hit. If you move him to 1B Wilmer Flores can be used in other areas. Farhan needs to make a splash and has some MLB ready prospects that Philly could use as utility or backups. I could see something like Casey Schmitt and the Phillies eating a decent portion of the salary here. They aren’t going to get power out of the FA market, so they are going to need to trade for it, and I am not sure too many teams are going to be willing to give them power for what they can offer in return. Might be taking on a semi bad contract is the only way they are going to get it.
Added bonus he could play 3b to rest Bohm and the announcers would have a reason to talk nostalgically anoint Mike Schimdt, and if he backed up Didi at least he wouldn’t hate it.
It was a fundamentally weird Phillies offseason when they threw $180m at Nicky and Kyle, and with an increasingly unhealthy Bryce Harper in the background.
What’s that ? I can’t hear you over the glow from this World Series ring
An ideal trade for the Phils would be moving Nick to the Mets for Starling Marte — swapping a slugger for a contact hitter, albeit one who has been constantly injured since late in the ’22 season. Marte is also three years older, recently turning 35 — but with only two years left on his deal, which is also in the $19-20 million range.
That’s a brutal trade, in the division, for all the reasons you mentioned with Marte’s history plus age. Also, after last seasons numbers I wouldn’t call Marte a contact hitter.
No. Marte’s career is over.
cty
“An ideal trade for the Phils would be moving Nick to the Mets for Starling Marte ”
BTV has Castellanos at -39 million
And Marte at -28 million
Not sure if that’s ideal, but pretty good to gain $10+ million in a trade.
During the postseason they were talking about how much he’s improved on D and that he “has a rocket for an arm”. Interesting that the numbers tell a drastically different story.
…….not mocking here…..just saying what the announcers voiced vs the stats seems to be way off
YP
I’ll mock
The people here who criticize “nerds” for looking at data and screeching “watch a game” who think they are deriving their information from their own eyes while “the nerds” are being told what to think, those people are the ones being told what to think by the announcers who’s comments don’t line up with the data,
Phils letting Hoskins and his 30hrs walk AND may move Castellanos and HIS 30hr?
Fake news on the Nicky Bats rumours.
Yup. I don’t buy any of this.
It’s wild to see the amount of people saying to trade him, especially based on salary, are also pushing for that trade to be for Trout. Trout is unbelievable and also a local guy, but the numbers and that trade handcuff the Phillies way worse for way longer.
There is a deal for just about any player in MLB.
Pres of Baseball Ops and GMs can get creative and make just about any deal happen for the right concessions and the right returns.
Summary – Phillies would like to but can’t trade Castellanos because he makes $20 million, is really bad on defense, and has been barely above average as hitter (105 OPS+) in Philly.
Not a PHI but to me Cast and Schw are similar players except one bats L and one R.
Salary, RBIs, Ks, below avg. defense, really DH is best position
IF the PHI can trade Cast I don’t see why they dont resign Hoskins have him play 1B/DH half the games alonh with Harper.
Marsh, Rojas/pache give you very good defense and enough offense.
Then find another OF from AAA, FA or trade.
I believe they may lose Nola to a higher bidder, They need to sign at least one reliable B type starter and probably two if they can’t extend Wheeler.
At the right price I think SEA, AZ, COL, MIA, MIL, LAA, CUB, TOR, NYM, LAD, SF would be interested in Castellanos
Cast is significantly better than Schwarber in the field, but that’s not saying much.
Like saying a Pinto is better than a Yugo?
Weird article. Plays down Castellanos’s value on the trade market but then says there not much out there in the free agent market. His value is absolutely high right now, regardless of how someone want to down play it.
Castellanos could not handle the pressure of Philly- he’s still a talented hitter, but does better in a less stressful situation than being expected to protect Harper in the lineup.
Comet, agree on the first paragraph 100%. Even if you’re bullish on Bellinger as the top option(I’m a big fan) you have to see the downside there is much worse over the last few years than anything NC has ever done.
On your second paragraph, Strider and the best team in baseball would say otherwise. The NLCS was brutal for him, and the rest of the lineup, but was otherworldly prior. Saying he can’t handle Philly based on a bad week of baseball is silly.
Castellenos with a deep drive to left….Thom Brennaman says hi!
Buy high sell low typically doesn’t work out. Good luck Phillies.
Joel P
Neither does not recognizing a sunk cost
Whether they should trade or keep Castellanos depends largely on what they’d get for him and how they’d replace him.
I don’t see how Castellanos would be worth more to another team than he would be worth to the Phillies. I guess he would have more of an opportunity to DH somewhere else but is that a good thing? I know he’s a poor defender but he isn’t Schwarber out there.
JP
“I don’t see how Castellanos would be worth more to another team than he would be worth to the Phillies.”
You don’t need to see that because it doesn’t matter
What matters is of Castellanos is worth more to the Phillies than whatever they get for him plus how they replace him.
They can “lose” the trade, but “win”. the transactions
Of course it matters because that’s why trades happen.
Be specific. Who would want Castellanos?
The Phillies signed him coming off a career year. He’s now had 2 lesser seasons and is leaving his physical prime soon. How does a trade make sense for both teams here?
JP
“Of course it matters because that’s why trades happen.”
That’s not always why trades happen
Again, the Phillies can make themselves worse with the Castellanos trade and still come out ahead overall.
“Be specific. Who would want Castellanos?”
Many teams.
“The Philloes signed him coming off a career year. He’s now had 2 lesser seasons and is leaving his physical prime soon. How does a trade make sense for both teams here?”
What the Phillies did has zero bearing on what another time would do now. None.
The Phillies, could, for example, eat all of his contract and get a middling prospect in return (note: I’m not saying that’s fair market value just using it as an example). The Philles would “lose” the trade because the prospect would have less value than the money they paid to get rid of Castellanos. If they then replaced him, with, say Soto, they would have come out on top of both deals combined.
Why would it make sense for another team? That should be obvious. Castellanos still has on field value. He’s not worthless. He’s just not worth his contract. If he’s free, he has a good amount of value. Lots of teams would take a free above league average bat.
The Phillies aren’t going to pay Castellanos to play for another team and then trade prospects for the right to pay Soto 30 million in 2024. That’s not realistic. The Phillies have a budget and they need money to sign a top end starter, Nola or someone else.
The Phillies wouldn’t mind getting out of the Castlellanos deal. But nobody is going to bail them out. They are stuck with that bad contract unless they swap it for another bad contract.
Castellanos for chris Taylor and we’ll throw in Austin Barnes as a bonus
sut
Per BTV
Castellanos -$39 million
Taylor -$1 million
Barnes -$3 million
So, you just cost the Dodgers $35ish million in value
Why on earth would you think Castellanos is better than Taylor?
They had nearly the same offense last year
Taylor 104
Castellanos 109
The previous year they were both in the 90’s and in 2021 they both hit well (Taylor 113, Castellanos 140).
Castellanos is almost certainly the better hitter, but Taylor is much much better defensively. And on a smaller contract,
Better for the Dodgers to trade for Taylor for something else, and sign one of the players similar to Castellanos to a cheaper deal.
I think this article misses the entire reason that the Phillies would have put Casty on the trade block in the first place. The Phillies have an aggressive front office, aggressive ownership, and the financial resources to back up their ambition. They see Casty’s position as one of the very few places on a championship-contending roster where they can improve. Casty’s salary doesn’t matter to them. They’ll be happy to eat a lot of it up. Any trade of Casty is as much (if not more) about making room in the starting nine for another big bat, as it is about what they get back for Casty specifically. If the Phillies are shopping Casty, they aren’t gonna replace him through FA, unless it’s Bellinger. It means they’re considering Soto, Trout, or someone on that level.
How about Castellanos and De La Cruz plus $30 million to the Mariners for Woo?
Then trade some mid-level prospects to the Padres for Grisham. He plays elite defense and if the Phillies can fix his swing like they did for Marsh that gives them the best defensive OF in baseball and decent offense too.
I actually feel like he had a decent season, and I’d love to have him. But only as a DH.
The Phillies made it to the NLCS this year, the World Series last year so I don’t know why they would be overly interested in shaking things up too much given the relatively weak free agent class.
With that said, if I was Hoyer I’d offer up Smyly and Bote. I’d hate to tie up dh for three years we also have a fairly limited payroll this season with some glaring needs.
Dumping Bote and Smyly would basically allow us Castellanos for 6 million this season, that would still leave us more than enough space to target Bellinger and a Top of the Rotation arm with money to spare. The next two years I’d deal with as they come but we got basically nothing from DH, third and first last year, Castellanos at DH and Morel at first (if possible) really shift that line.
Moving Castellanos might allow for some of the less expensive prospects to begin working their way onto the MLB roster. Carlos De La Cruz, Ethan Wilson, Gabriel Rincones, and eventually/hopefully Justin Crawford. Yes, rookies can be unpredictable but the cost/benefit might off-set some of Castellanos’ salary and allow for a suprise [Yamamoto], re-sign Nola, or other move. The play of Oliver Dunn last season in Reading and this years Arizona Fall League might even allow consideration of moving/attaching Bohm in a trade..
This article is an injustice to Nick Castellanos. It makes him appear as a mere shadow of the player he still is. Instead of highlighting his 100+ RBI production, respectable batting average, errorless season, cannon of an arm, and tremendous inspirational value he brings to the team and fans by actively engaging with his young son who is highly visible during most of the Phillies home games, the article portrays Castellanos as a washed-up disappointment the Phils will have a difficult time trading. If Steve Adams watched every Phillies game this season as I have, he would have an entirely different opinion of Castellanos and never written this article. The reason for Castellanos’ streaky hitting in Philly should be readily apparent to anybody who has ever played the game of baseball at a high level and understands the mechanics of hitting. Castellanos stands too far away from the plate to hit the outside pitches he is thrown. What’s more, he is a sucker for a low outside pitch, and savvy pitchers have been eating him up with low sliders. When Castellanos has moved closer to the plate from the outside half of the batter’s box to the inside third, he has hit the ball for power and average. Mysteriously, he has not made a steady habit of batting closer to the plate, and the end result has been his streaky hitting. The Phillies have a lot of animated players who frequently do as much cheerleading as they do playing. Harper, Schwarber, Marsh, Bohm, and Rojas are highly visible during games and always trying to get the wild Phillies fans involved in their games. Castellanos is not a cheerleader, which possibly affects his popularity in Philly. Instead, he is an old school, hard-nosed, no-nonsense player who quietly engages with his young son during games but not with the entirety of Citizens Bank Park. In the eyes of many Phillies fans, this makes him more expendable than someone like Schwarber who outwardly celebrates his homeruns with arrogant bat flips, gestures, and stares. Pro sports are now considered sports entertainment, and Schwarber is an entertainer. Castellanos, on the other hand, is an old-fashioned ball player. If the Phillies are smart, they’ll forget about trading Castellanos and consider trading Schwarber who is at the height of his trade value. That would open up the DH to players like Harper, Castellanos, Turner, Bohm, and especially, Realmuto, who are getting older and would benefit for a regular turn at being the DH. The Phils can’t do this with the DH being reserved exclusively for Schwarber. The Phils should also consider moving Harper back to right field, where he less likely to get injured, and Castellanos to left field. This would improve the Phils defensively. Then, they could either bring back Hoskins, acquire another first baseman, or even give another shot to Darick Hall or promote Carlos de la Cruz, their 6’9″ first baseman / outfielder, from Reading where he batted .259 with 24 homers in 2023. The Phils could also play Bohm at first base and play the highly underused and underrated Sosa at third. The Phils already have much of the talent they need to win a world series, and Castellanos is an important piece of that talent. There are many other ways for the Phils to improve in 2024, and none of them require a Castellanos trade.
I agree whole heartedly. Also, does zone rating or DRS take into account that he has Rojas and Marsh next to him everyday who both cover a TON of ground. I too watched every game this year and, while streaky at the plate, saw Nicky as a stone cold winner for this team most days.
Great read and observations.
You can’t make an error if you can’t get anywhere near the ball.
nj, Sure you can.
Whatever you are drinking, send some my way. Only got one sentence into your delusional rant but its obvious you are seriously drunk.
bbislife, There’s a thin line between delusional madness and sheer genius. But I’m sure you knew that!
Well, we know you are not a genius, so …
Buster Olney just dismissed this rumor, and the Phillies have no interest in trading Nicky C. So this entire thread has been rendered meaningless. Enjoy!
Von, I get the impression front offices frequently start rumors to see how fans will react in the media. Maybe they’re looking for guidance because they realize they might have gotten too close to the action and have lost sight of the grander scheme of things. I think and hope this might be the case with the Castellanos rumor because it hit the media so soon after the season ended. What is also unusual is any advance notice of a trade by the usually closed-lip Dave Dombrowski who is well known for holding his cards close to his vest. Regardless, this thread has not been meaningless. It has given prolific writers like yourself the opportunity to showcase their writing talent in front of an erudite audience filled with would be major league GMs!
I agree. The Phillies FO is extremely tight-lipped making me very skeptical of any rumors.
That should also theoretically make you skeptical of denial of said rumors.
So you are down to what will happen, will happen.
The fact that Buster Olney said these rumors are bunk is significant. Olney is pretty reliable. But I agree. It’s all wait and see. I have faith in the Phils FO.
This one, In theory, you’re correct! It’s just that denials change the odds somewhat.
Von, When you wear a bow tie in public, you have to be reliable!
Carpenter for NC – plays 1b while Manny is on the mend and then DH.
Problem #1: bad stuff will happen on his new team’s TV broadcast
Von, agreed. Also Keep in mind, Dombrowski drafted Nick in Detroit. Business is business but there was likely additional incentive to dispel the rumors right away.
Castellanos is headed for Scott Rolen career numbers.
Robbie ray who says no ?
Pencil him in at 1B for the Cubbies. If he could provide half the spark he did a few years back, it would be worth it.
But does it really matter if he underperforms during the regular season? The regular season is now meaningless.
As long as teams keep throwing him meatballs and he crushes them during the small sample size Olympics, it’s all good.
He was a regular season All-Star, but that doesn’t give you a chance to make fun of the playoff format for the 100th time. Sorry about the Orioles. I was rooting for them. but I’m certain they didn’t cry about the format as much as you.
He didn’t perform well enough to win in the postseason either. Theres no guarantee they get there again
Of course there isn’t, but I’d bet money on around 90 wins or so. Doesn’t mean they won’t get bounced first round. Doesn’t even mean they’ll make it, but I’d bet they’re a playoff team.
They will probably make the postseason, but then again, everyone thought the Yankees would in 2023 after a stellar 2022… you never know. No one expected Texas to go all the way. You can predict, but there’s no guarantee. And I’d be a little worried if they don’t sign Nola. This sport is very unpredictable.
I love how people jump and assume who’s going to win divisions based on prior years only to see those teams fall. Even the experts picked Yankees but there’s no real formula that correctly predicts.
Cora, You’re absolutely right. There’s no guarantee the Phils will return to the world series, no matter what changes they make or fail to make. The kind of things that will make it difficult for the Phils to return include trading someone as valuable as Castellanos, continuing to use a .197 batting strikeout king who can’t run as you’re leadoff man, and not finding improvements, not just comparable replacements, for Nola and Kimbrel, The Phils have a lot of talent, but they still haven’t figured out how to put it all together when it matters. They match up very well against the Braves in head-on competition, but they’re outmatched in the playoffs after that.
Maybe DD is playing the media to see if there was any interest in NC, but I don’t see why the Phillies would want to trade him. Assuming that Schwarber goes to DH, then the Phillies have 3 CF types and only one corner OF.
Joe, The Phils already have the goods for an ideal outfield – Castellanos in left, Harper in right, and Marsh/Rojas in center. For as popular as Schwarber is and for as far as he can hit a baseball, he’s problematic at DH because the Phils need that position as a place where their aging veterans can catch a day off from defensive duties but still keep their hitting fresh. Schwarber’s trade value will never be greater, and the Phils could acquire a top of the rotation starter, closer, or big bat in a trade package that includes Schwarber. Now that most teams in the AL and NL have seen Schwarber for the first time, they’ll be able to figure out what he can hit and what he can’t. I think Schwarber’s home run, RBI numbers, and walks peaked in 2023, but his strikeouts and poor batting average will continue through the rest of his career unless someone turns him into a hitter rather than a home run derby champ.
That’s their fault for signing him. Everyone knew he wasn’t worth that much
Fans of other teams with desperate executives should worry greatly when they see players like Castellanos being offered up. I don’t think there’s any question that Philadelphia would love to move this guy.
The Phillies’ “problem” is exacerbated by Castellanos’ surly, soon-to-be toxic personality. He is not going to age well on the field or in the clubhouse and I am reasonably certain the FO can see that clearly.
norcat, There’s nothing wrong with Castellanos’ personality. He’s neither surly, nor toxic. He’s just different from most of the other Phillies because he’s a quite, hard-nosed ball player, rather than a media personality or entertainer. There was a day when teams looked for guys with personalities like Castellanos’ and avoided the pretty boys and rah-rah types. Sadly, those days are gone – especially in Philly.
“Surly, soon-to-be toxic”? Are you able to predict that based on your current experience as a toxic person?
Nick “unplayable in the field “Castellanos. Except, he’s played in the field.
Put Castellanos on waivers. See if someone will take him. JD Martinez is available & Justin Turner.
Jason Heyward is another.
Streaky or not, I like Nick..I won’t be unhappy if he remains. Too bad there is no room in the inn for Hoskins..I’m a big Phan…
I might as well start a bit early for my annual vent…they need arms, arms, and after that, more arms…I’m just warming up…(*_^)
Dads, The Phils also need to send Thomson a wake up call and have him start using his team to its greatest potential. Schwarber should be traded this offseason but, if he’s not, he shouldn’t be leading off. Turner who stole every base he attempted in 2023 without getting thrown out should be the Phils’ leadoff man. Another effective base stealer like Stott, Marsh, or Rojas, should be batting second behind Turner to take full advantage of the Phils potential running game. RBI leader, Castellanos, should not be batting seventh. Sosa should be getting much more playing time. Instead of giving them days off while they’re hitting well, Realmuto, Harper, Castellanos, Turner, and Bohm should be rotating through the DH position. The Phils’ pitchers – starters and relievers, need to be used much more effectively. Even when the Phils appear to be playing well, they’re still not playing up to full potential. Thomson has to start identifying that potential and taking full advantage of it.
Makes no sense to trade a guy who goes 1 for 32 when it counts.
I don’t see the Phillies just trading him to essentially eat cash and get a avg prospect. If I’m the Phillies I’m not trading him and eating cash unless I get a very strong prospect in return. On the flip side, if I’m a team interested in him, I’m not taking on that contract at face value and even if the Phillies eat some of the contract I’m not throwing in a decent prospect to get them to do it. Might not even throw in an avg prospect. Phillies just need to keep him, he’s still solid enough and it’s one of those where he’ll prob be fine and people will never think twice of the contract