Aaron Nola unsurprisingly rejected the Phillies’ one-year qualifying offer this week and is now squarely on the open market in search of a long-term contract. The Phils haven’t been shy about their hope to bring him back, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski saying in an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove last week that the team “loves” Nola and remains hopeful of working out a new contract (video link to the full nine-minute interview).
“We were not able to get him signed in spring training, which was unfortunate for us, but we understood his scenario,” Dombrowski said. “Now he’s in a spot where he has the ability to talk to 29 other clubs, so it doesn’t get any easier. But I do think there’s mutual interest in both parties trying to get something done. Hopefully for us we can get it done, because we absolutely love Aaron and what he does for the organization, not only as a person but on the field.”
More recently, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark took a look at the Phillies’ offseason decisions, writing this morning that other clubs don’t get the impression that the Phillies are willing to “go all out” to win a bidding war to retain Nola’s services. Some of that stems from the reportedly sizable gap the two parties faced in spring training. Some clubs feel the demand in Nola is substantial enough to push him to a seven-year contract, per Stark.
The Phillies ostensibly weren’t willing to go to that length (at least not at a premium annual value) back in spring, so at least logically speaking, there’s reason to doubt whether they’d be willing to do that now that Nola has pitched to a second pedestrian ERA in three seasons — albeit with still-pristine strikeout and walk rates and a big showing in the postseason.
Dombrowski was rather clear last week in asserting that the Phillies are only looking to add one starter. He stated in that MLBN appearance that if the Phils are able to re-sign Nola, their rotation will be “set.” The veteran baseball ops leader pointed to Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker as locks for the rotation, adding that his club very much likes lefty Cristopher Sanchez — understandably so. The 26-year-old southpaw logged a 3.44 ERA in 99 1/3 innings, striking out 24.2% of his opponents against a brilliant 4% walk rate. Sanchez kept the ball on the ground at a terrific 57% clip as well.
While Nola may be the Phillies’ preference, bidding is expected to be competitive given his durability, command, ability to miss bats and his broader track record of run prevention. His ERA marks in 2021 and 2023 haven’t stood out, but teams regularly have demonstrated that they’re comfortable evaluating and projecting pitchers on far more than just their rudimentary earned run averages. Add in a perennially weak Phillies defense and homer-friendly home park, and it’s easy to see why other teams might be even more willing to take a pair of mid-4.00s from Nola with a grain of salt.
If Nola lands elsewhere, the Phillies will have to pursue other options, as Dombrowski alluded to. Longtime Phillies beat writer Jim Salisbury said in a radio appearance yesterday on WIP’s Midday Show that the Phils have “legitimate” interest in Yamamoto (Twitter link, with audio). They’re not connected to the 25-year-old NPB ace as frequently as other big-market clubs given the team’s general lack of success at luring star players from NPB and the KBO, but that shouldn’t expressly rule them out from making a winning bid and persuading Yamamoto to sign in Philadelphia, of course. Even teams with storied histories of signing NPB stars had to begin that track record at some point, after all.
One name not believed to be especially high on their list, per Stark, is that of likely Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Stark reports that the Phils are “lukewarm” on the lefty, though an eventual run at him could still take place if multiple preferred options land elsewhere.
It’s a similar story with closer Josh Hader, albeit for different reasons. While MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested Monday the Phillies could be a match with Hader, Stark indicates that opposite, writing that the Phils prefer not to head into the season with a dedicated closer, which is surely a role that Hader will prioritize in free agency. He’s been exclusively a ninth-inning (or later) option for the Brewers and Padres in each of the past three seasons and hasn’t worked more than one inning in an appearance since Sept. 2019. Even if the Phillies love Hader — and presumably, just about every team loves him from a pure talent perspective — their preferred usage of him might not align with Hader’s own goals on the market.
Readers — Phillies fans in particular — will want to check out Stark’s column in full, as it contains multiple quotes from Dombrowski and plenty of context on the former Marlins, Tigers and Red Sox front office leader’s tendencies in the offseason.
7yrs for Nola is at least 4 too many. That being said, some desperate team will wind up giving him 10.
Lol 8 max at least 5 good years.
GIVE ME YAMAMOTO
He’s signing with mets sorry
I don’t think the Mets will be as in on him as some people think. It definitely feels like a retool in Queens.
I agree that they won’t go to “stupid” spending levels this offseason, but Cohen has since walked back on his earlier comments a bit. They still need to upgrade the rotation.
I think he’s exactly what the Mets will be looking for. They expect it to be a one-year retool, so a long contract for a 25 year old pitcher fits their timeline.
@fivepoundbass. I agree 100% and Cohen will open his wallet to sign him.
Right, but I don’t think the Mets are what he’s looking for. A 1-year retool can be a hardsell. Time will tell.
So I’m not going to say its a lock by any means and I do think it’s a bit of a retool… But Yamamoto fits that very well actually — they aren’t tearing anything down but more taking a year to see what they have in prospects – no other free agent pitcher better fits this model than Yamamoto who would be a 26 year old ace heading into 2025 when their supposed window of contention reopens
In other words it makes no sense to sign any other pitcher other than yamamoto in some.ways so why not go all in for the chance to lock up a mid 20s ace long term esp since they have a lack of true front of the rotation pitching prospects in that system
Yankees want him..sorry mets
Pool – You said the Yankees are also getting Ohtani and Bellinger too, so I suppose you are expecting a $400M payroll next year with those three new contracts?
Even after Cashman ticked off Yamamoto’s agent?
I did , when? Im no yankee fan ..quite the opposite..lol i was only trolling the mets..btw im pretty sure ohtani isnt going to ny fwiw..bos or la
Pool – I picked Ohtani to the Rangers and I’m sticking with it. Haha!
The Red Sox need pitching and they need it now, I don’t think they’d sign Ohtani and then one of the other top starting pitchers projected to earn $150M or more.
Also going to a contender is important to him, the Red Sox would need to make some big improvements within the next couple weeks to qualify as a contender …. simply not possible.
Nah, he wants to go to a contender.
The Phillies will have to offer Yamamoto 10/$250M to have a chance at signing him. Since he’s only 25 years old and has ace-like qualities, he’ll definitely get an 8 year deal from some team in the $25M/yr range. It’s so rare that a pitcher of his talent is available in FA at such a young age. Someone is locking him up long term for sure.
I agree about the long term deal but ill guess there will be an opt out after 4 or 5 years into it, the possibility of going into free agency at 29/30
9/275 with free cheesesteak sushi.
I would love to get any of the names listed in the headline, but it seems unlikely.
I have hader to phils in the contest… i just see it as a perfect fit
You can have Lance Lynn.
No thank you.
That man is a WBC Silver Medalist! Aren’t you in awe??
Don’t blame the ballpark for Nola’s high era last year and in 2021. It was much lower at home those years than on the road. The difference for 2022 when compared to 2021 and 2023 was a much lower road era in 2022.
I also think people are being too harsh on the 2023 era for a lot of pitchers. I assume it was the rule changes, but era’s were up across the league. The five seasons prior to 2023 saw 10, 7, 8, 6, & 6 NL starting pitchers with an era under 3.00. 2023 was only two pitchers. Similar results for the AL.
ERA+ compares to the league for that year. Nola was just below average last year by that standard. I’m going to be surprised if he gets a long contract for ace money. He’s been just average two of the last three years. That’s a lot of money for high uncertainty.
I’m still waiting to see how much the media rights uncertanty affect the free agent market. There has to be some impact.
I like that thought. I don’t know for sure, but Nola seemed like a naturally slower, more methodical pitcher. Wonder how much of the rule change impacted his typical cadence and what (if any) impact that had on his performance over the year
Nola more than most, really took a long time to adjust to the time clock. He was really out of sorts to start the season.
Exactly. He finished the season pretty strong and has significant playoff success. Phillies fans just remember his bad starts. The Phillies will absolutely be worse without him, but 8 years seems ridiculous for an arm with that many miles on it.
Nola is 100% someone that won’t truly be appreciated by the Phillies fan base until he’s gone. He did a lot for the team during their dark years of McPhail and Klentak. But he has warts and criticism of him is fair. It’s frustrating because everyone knew it was night/day when he had runners on base. Nola never developed a solid slide step, he never improved his pickoff move, or managed the pitch clock well this past season. He never improved (or was perceived to have improved his one weakness which is something Philly sports fans have issue with, see Ben Simmons).
Also, it’s because of how bad he looks when he bombs hurts too. When Wheeler is struggling or off, he pulls the ball arm side, when he misses. It’s off the plate. Nola’s arm slot and pitching demeanor doesn’t lend to that. When Nola is bad, he’s hanging 1-0 curveballs middle-middle and they’re traveling 400+. That’s what killed him in Game 6 against AZ. Just like how Gallen struggled and guys like Merrill Kelly and Pfaadt didn’t. The last 2 when they miss, it’s off the plate.
I’ll miss Nola when he’s gone. Go get that bag, but I wouldn’t want him for 6-7 years. For me, it’s Yamamoto or bust. If they can’t get him, skip on Gray, Snell, etc. go the middle rotation way. Maybe Quantrill, Giolito, Jakob Junis, maybe swing a trade with Seattle or Milwaukee. And then dive into the FA next winter with a strong crop of starters after extending Wheeler.
Giolito probably takes a one year prove up. Quantrill has shoulder trouble. Cleveland didn’t want to pay the arb number – this is a real sign that they feel he’s damaged goods.
I’m not going to say you’re wrong. I think that may play into it. But in reality, Cleveland is looking to cut payroll. They’re amongst the clubs who have been tied to Bally Sports and them going into bankruptcy. They’ve received little/none of their TV rights money and may not get it next year either. It’s why you’re seeing clubs without strong regional TV deals and tied up with Bally’s cutting salaries this winter.
Also, Cleveland has had a number of young arms emerge last year. They have guys on minimum or close to minimum deals with stuff even better than Cal. It makes sense they would show him the door at this time. I don’t think Quantrill is a major fix for the Phillies. But going into the season with a healthy (assuming) Cal Quantrill as their #5 or #6 wouldn’t be a bad spot to be in.
The team needs arms..To say they are only looking for one rotation arm is seems short sighted..I’d love Nola and Yamamoto…As for Haver, I understand while he is brilliant out of the pen, he is a bit of a selfish guy..I could be wrong, but I read somewhere that he refused to pitch more than 1 inning..Again, I’m not sure how accurate that is. Maybe someone knows what happened.
I tried to edit Hader, but it wouldn’t let me..Oh well
Interesting. They definitely need 1 arm, but they lost in the playoffs because of a lack of hitting. I think their pitching is okay once they land their Nola replacement (or Nola himself). They also have a number of young arms in the minors.
They absolutely need to solve the Nola slot in the rotation, and not just with a random question arm. I’d prefer a second arm, but I understand holding back (particularly with Abel/McGarry looming later in the season, and Painter in years to come). I want a real bat for LF. Marsh and Rojas are nice pieces, and certainly their gloves are a step up, but they are nowhere near consistent enough at the plate to take up two lineup slots.
I would also like a more reliable PH (where is this team’s Del Unser, Greg Gross, or Matt Stairs?), but they seem to be in love with Pache.
Anything you don’t want @kje76?
I’m just kidding, I’m in the same boat with the Braves.
#1. A pitcher that won’t break down before the playoffs. So, maybe they can finally have one healthy starter that isn’t worn down come Sept./Oct.
#2. A LF to either compliment Grissom, or take over for Rosario
#3. Bench bat/Backup Corner Infielder
#4. 4th-5th OF/Wall upgrade
#5. One more solid piece for the pen.
They lost because there Bull pen blew two games in Arizona
They left an army of men in scoring position in those games the pen blew. They also lost 2 games after that in which they failed to generate offense. Blame Kimbrel all you want, he stunk, but it was the bats that really disappointed.
I understand that 100%. I think the major issue right now is that there’s little flexibility the team has to move contracts. Casty is the player they need to move the most. But the issue is no team is willing to take him on his 3/60 number. The Phils don’t have the depth to include an attractive prospect to Casty for a team to absorb that deal AND also make a trade to upgrade at another position.
If they miss on one of the Big 3 SP free agents, then they’ll likely need to make a trade for an arm. It feels like they almost need to bite the bullet this year and keep the same lineup. Hoping a full healthy year from Harper plus continued improvement from Bohm & Stott help the team and then a stronger rotation/bullpen will help them through. And then maybe next winter when it’s only 2/40 that could be a contact that’s more palatable to trade somewhere (same goes for Taijuan Walker’s deal).
Plus JT looks like he’s breaking down a bit and they may need to invest in a backup catcher that can be trusted to play 50+ games next year.
Von, I usually am close to agreement with you, but here I couldn’t be more of a different opinion. While the bats definitely screwed us in those 2 games, it was pitching that really cost us the series. (And the world series last year tbh) not having a guy you can throw out as a legit starter in the playoffs between your #3 and Ace pitching is horrible management. The Sanchez start was fine. But as soon as you had to go to BP it was downhill. We need another solid rotation arm at minimum (besides Nola or his replacement) and the bullpen needs a lot of work. Too many guys lose the strike zone too often. So while we need to improve our hitting, I’d argue that pitching is a bigger deal. Especially when you consider that a lot of our hitting issues stem from HORRID at bats.
They need two arms. One could be Nola. wheeler is a FA next year too. But next years free agent class of starting pitchers is ridiculously loaded so no rush to try and retain him.
They have a crop of internal arms that should be ready by 2025.
Von, I wish I was as bullish on the pitching as much as you are. But outside of Abel, there’s no prospects that have shown themselves as big league talents yet. Abel’s ceiling seems to be that of someone like Jon Gray. Likely a #3-4 on a contender. Abel’s been durable but command is still lacking. Hopefully CC can work with him when he makes it to Philly.
Painter won’t even been pitching until 2025 and likely won’t sniff the majors until 2026. Outside of those 2, there’s interesting names but unless someone breaks out. There’s no one we can count on to be in the big soon.
McGarry & McFarlane probably have relief risks. McGowan also looks more like a long man than a starter. McGowan, Ottenbreit, & Klassen are all recovering or just came back from TJ surgery. Wen Hui Pan has been a nice find in a relief role but he hasn’t been stretched out to start and some wonder if his 94-97 fastball will still play if he’s starting instead of relieving. Samuel Aldegheri is probably the pitcher with the best command in the system and maybe their best LH pitching prospect but he’s very low on the list and only at Low A ball.
Kerkering and Abel are the only ones likely to be in the bigs right now. But I would feel better if they invest in multiple starters this winter.
Wheeler needs to be extended, Suarez has dealt with injuries the past 2 seasons, Sanchez was a pleasant surprise but given his stuff. You have to wonder if that’ll keep up or if he was very lucky. The other options other than Abel and maybe McGarry are Nick Nelson and Matt Strahm. And Soto isn’t trustworthy in higher leverage situations, Strahm is more important in the bullpen being the #2 lefty behind Alvarado.
It wouldn’t be bad taking a flyer and maybe claiming the recently DFA’d Cal Quantrill from Cleveland. And then signing a top FA pitcher. With the cost of middle class starting pitching now seemingly dropping. Walker’s 2/36 may be an attractive contract to a team next winter who may not want to dive into the deep end of a very strong and very expensive FA pitching class next winter.
It’ll be interesting to see the contracts next year. There is such an abundance set to hit the market, I’m curious if that will favor the clubs for once. They’ll still get paid, but there shouldn’t be any bidding wars. Some may be wise to sign before free agency as it may be the best offer they receive.
If inflation is ever bad enough that Josh Hader is worth $100 million while refusing to get more than 3 outs, we need to go get the guillotines
Padres we’re out of it he’s protecting his off-season contract.
joe, I thought these guys were uber competitive…refusing to come into a game doesn’t sit well with me..
Yes but at the end of the day this is a business. And teams aren’t going to pay you if you throw your arm out. He has to protect himself especially since they aren’t in the playoffs.
I understand everyone has a different role, but the main one should be helping the team, look at Bryce Harper playing at 1B, and I bet if you ask the guy to go play 3B he’ll do it too.
Definitely would be a red flag if you pay Hader 100 just to throw 1 inning and give you 3 outs, a player regardless of his role should be willing to help the team, doesn’t matter if you are a closer because maybe one day what we need is for you to be the starter. That’s why the sport needs less divas more players
Different situation Bryce got his bag and Phillies in the playoffs. Hader was pitching meaningless innings for a non playoff team.
I think Hader had been protecting himself so he could get to free agency healthy and sign a huge contract. Once he signs his new multi-year, $100M contract, he’ll be willing to do whatever the club asks of him since he has his guaranteed, bag of money regardless of injury or performance drop off.
Pass on Nola, It’s a business decision. Sign Yamamoto 8/225, Extend Wheeler 4/100. Keep Sosa and replace Cave with Wilson and Covey with Kerkering and let’s get after it.
I agree. Header did what he had to do to protect his health and his family. He was correct when he said if he was hurt pitching more frequently than he felt was prudent none of the teams were going to care.
If Bryce Harper hits the 8th inning 3 run bomb that seemed like destiny calling……the Phillies would have been in the WS and possibly WS Champs.
Phillies have plenty of talent. More than enough to win a WS.
My predicted top 50 guys to the Phils are: Sonny Gray, Robert Stephenson, Harrison Bader. I think the Phils will make a big move July 31.
Ick, very ick, and super ick
Well my Snell to Phillies pick doesn’t sound so good now. Or maybe it’s a lock to be right because the Phillies are playing possum to sneak in!
He can come back to Padres if he wants – I’ll take the miss!
Thanks guys…The hitting got cold the last few playoff games…I hate writing like some, but it is true that have defensive liabilities..,Actually, I thought Nick C. played decently in right..I understand that by some sort of metrics, he didn’t..My eyes told a different story.
Here’s an idea, have a meeting with Bryce, JT, & Wheeler regarding their feelings on bringing in Bauer. If those 3 sign off on it then I say let’s do it.
No he had a bad reputation in the clubhouse. Chemistry on phillies has been very good don’t need the headache.
I hate Trever Bauer when so that went down thinking he was a sick dude. Turns out it was all a lie. All those leaked messages the girl made showed he was targeted.
Having written that, I watched a few of his games in Japan. Wasn’t bad or good. Just okay.
And I’ll be out.
Just looked at Castellanos’ WAR over the years. If he never played an inning in the field, he’d look kind of okay. But man, those are some ugly defensive numbers. He was a born DH.
3 years tops!!!!! There are no more Verlanders around anymore. An epidemic of injuries since the turn of the century. Any more than 4 for anyone is just madness to me. Just ask the angels about rendon and trout and they ain’t starting pitchers
Doesn’t that make MLB a mental health institution? The padded stadium outfield walls make sense now.
The reason Hader wanted to close and pitch only one inning is because he was playing on year-to-year deals with arb numbers that depended heavily on saves. Before 2019 the Brewers were using him as a true fireman–in the highest leverage innings and he frequently pitched more than one inning.
Now that he will get a lucrative, long-term deal I don’t think he will care as much when he is used and for how long.
Nola to the Nats. 6 years, 140M
Taiuan Walker’s contract will be the reason why they Phills can’t resign Nola.
No. It definitely won’t be. But it’s a contract I don’t like for sure.
I don’t think Nola going back to Phillie. Phillies could be in trouble without him.
Unless they sign another top starter which seems to be in the cards.
True but I don’t think it’s that easy… they’ll still probably make the postseason but Nola is very good, even if he had a bad season this year. He knows how to win games and rack up k’s.
I agree. You can make an argument that excluding Ohtani, Nola is the best FA pitcher out there. I prefer him to Snell and Yamamoto is an unknown quantity.
Snell would be lucky to throw 130 innings. He’s done it twice, both Cy Young years. Snell won’t be worth it and I doubt he repeats 2023 with that atrocious walk rate.
I’ve never been a fan of ol’ 5 inning Snell
I’d rather have Gray at 3 years, than Nola at 4, but Yamamoto is worth 8-10 yrs. Really need a leadoff hitter and drop Scwarber to 2nd at least in the lineup, drop him to 7th and his HR total will drop by 5/6.
Hader to replace Kinbrell, that’s an easy upgrade and probably the extra $$$ cone with the raising if the tax level.
If this is true (and not a DD smokescreen) than it’s fantastic news. Hader and Snell are very good players. But not the best fit for how the Phillies are currently constructed. Thompson wants flexibility out of the bullpen, not a dedicated closer (which Hader and maybe guys like Jordan Hicks also want). And while Snell had a great year, he’s entering his 30s soon, has control issues and has issues getting into the 6th inning at times. Both would be terrible investments.
The Phillies will be spending to compete every year Harper is in his prime. The only starter worth the risk of going 6+ years for is Yamamoto. Hopefully the Phillies are serious because he’s the youngest and maybe the best pure arm. Plus he has no draft pick penalty tied to him like Gray & Snell have.
I picked the Phillies to sign Yamamoto (more heart over head pick) and Robert Stephenson. I think guys that have had closing experience but can pitch any inning is what they’ll target out of relievers. Stephenson, Ryne Stanek, maybe even Hector Neris. They also have hit on minor league FAs who became part of the bullpen the last few years (Bellatti in 22 and Hoffman in 23).
Then they may address the lineup in a trade. While it would be nice to have Rojas in the everyday lineup. DD doesn’t sound impressed by him and doesn’t sound like he’s part of the current opening day plans. Wouldn’t be surprised if they packaged Rojas as part of a deal for another outfield bat or a pitcher (if they don’t land a top 2-3 FA pitcher). The team that might make the most sense is Seattle. Jerry D has a fetish for trades and has dealt with the Phillies and DD before. If they don’t trade for Jonathan India. I could see the Phillies maybe trying to package some prospects together to get a bat like Kelenic or one Gilbert/Kirby/Miller/Woo.
At this point, is there anyone off the Jerry D trade list? Seems like he’s covered most teams.
I think that we have to look at what Middleton and DD have done and have said, and truly understand the relative sea change in the organization from so much of what we have seen in the past.
This team is built to win, and it is also set up so that it is possible for them to keep the window open. They KNOW that they need to either retain or replace Nola next year, so they are going to be going after the top arms. No guarantees, as the players make the final decision in FA after all, but they will not be shy. So either Yamamoto, or Nola, or one of the next tier down. With all of the high-priced position guys, they made their playoff bones the past two seasons on Wheeler and Nola holding up their end very well and they need to keep that going. They might not convince Yamamoto, and they might lose out on Aaron, but they sure as heck are going to try to pledge right up to “stupid” to have a top shelf arm back in stock for next season.
Snell/Yamamoto and Hader to the Rangers.