Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff is among the most talented pitchers in the league today. In 103 starts since joining the club’s rotation full-time during the 2019 season, Woodruff has posted a 2.93 ERA (45% better than league average by measure of ERA+) with a 3.10 FIP and a 30% strikeout rate across 595 innings of work. Among pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched during that timeframe, only Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander have posted a lower ERA than Woodruff. Meanwhile, only Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Blake Snell, and fellow Brewers Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta have posted a higher strikeout rate over that same timeframe.
Despite that immense talent, Woodruff struggled with injuries in 2023, making just 11 starts all season due to shoulder issues. While he managed an impressive 2.28 ERA and 29.2% strikeout rate during his limited time on the mound, the Brewers received devastating news last month when it was revealed that ace right-hander Brandon Woodruff underwent surgery that could put his entire 2024 season in jeopardy. News that a pitcher of Woodruff’s caliber has gone under the knife is never welcome, but it’s particularly poor timing for both the right-hander and his club given Woodruff’s pending free agency following the 2024 season.
With Woodruff projected for a $11.6MM salary in his final trip through arbitration by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz, the small-market Brewers have been unexpectedly forced to reckon with the question of whether or not it’s worth devoting what would have been nearly 10% of their total 2023 payroll (per RosterResource) to one-year deal for an injured arm with an uncertain timetable for return. While initial indications were that the righty would miss most or perhaps even all of the 2024 campaign, Woodruff himself has said that it’s possible he could return to the mound “at some point” next summer. Still, even the possibility of a half-season of excellence from Woodruff doesn’t change the fact that a $11.6MM gamble on Woodruff’s health could be unwise for Brewers to make this offseason.
With star manager Craig Counsell having already jumped ship to join the Cubs, the Brewers have started off their offseason by dealing veteran first baseman and outfielder Mark Canha to the Tigers as reports have indicated that the club is willing to deal the majority of the players on their roster. What’s more, co-ace Corbin Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames both set to hit the open market in 2024 in addition to Woodruff, leaving the Brewers in a tight spot regarding their roster if they hope to continue avoiding a full-blown rebuild as they have for the past several years. That being said, even if the Brewers wind up moving Burnes and Adames this offseason, it’s unlikely they’d find much value for Woodruff on the trade market.
It’s always possible that Woodruff and the Brewers could work out a short-term extension, extending Woodruff’s club control into 2025 while providing him additional security as he rehabs from shoulder surgery. That being said, Woodruff will be 31 years old on Opening Day 2024. Delaying his free agency until he’s preparing for his age-33 season would surely compromise the right-hander’s value on the open market, making it a less than attractive option for the righty. While Woodruff has expressed a desire to remain in Milwaukee long term, he noted last month that he and the Brewers had not yet engaged in extension negotiations at that point.
With MLB’s tender deadline less than a week away, the Brewers are staring down the most significant decision of their offseason to this point: do they tender Woodruff a contract? If they do so without a pre-tender extension, they could find themselves on the hook for a salary upwards of $12MM in 2024 for a pitcher who might not be able to contribute. And while they could extend Woodruff a qualifying offer next offseason to ensure they recoup draft pick compensation for his services, there’s no guarantee that his performance in 2024 coming off injury will justify such an expenditure. At the same time, Woodruff has strong incentive to not agree to a pre-tender deal. If the Brewers ultimately decide to non-tender the 30-year-old, he’ll have the opportunity to negotiate a deal with any of MLB’s 30 clubs on the open market, giving him plenty of options as he looks for a new home with whom to rehab and hopefully pitch in 2024 and perhaps beyond.
How do MLBTR readers believe the Brewers will approach their predicament? Will they non-tender Woodruff this coming Friday if he does not agree to a pre-tender deal, allowing him to hit the open market for nothing? Or will they tender him a contract and hope to agree to a more favorable arrangement than his $11.6MM projected salary later in the offseason? Have your say in the poll below:
(poll link for app users)
What would the Brew get back from trading Burnes?
2-3 players. 2 pitchers and possibly a position player.
The Brewers and Twins are “open for business” and will begin their tear down phase of a rebuild this off season.
The Twins aren’t rebuilding, they’re loaded. I think they’re likely to go after Burnes actually.
Twins have announced they are cutting payroll.
Money spent and roster quality are not directly related. Acquiring Burnes would be cheaper than going out and signing someone to replace Grays production. They might even be able to shed some payroll going to the Brewers with Polanco as part of the deal
Right… they’re cutting payroll, to what everybody expects is in the $135MM range from the $155MM range. The Twins are not doing a teardown and they’re not rebuilding.
Gray $13.3MM, Gallo $11MM, Mahle $7.5MM, Maeda $3.1MM, Taylor $4.6MM, Pagan $3.5MM, Solano $2.1MM, Lopez $2.0MM, Floro $1.4MM
That’s about $45-50MM in free agents leaving.
Options/Arb Eligible
Polanco $7.5MM, Farmer $5.6MM, who have guys ready to cover their positions. $13MM.
and Kepler $8.5MM last year who is fairly likely to be moved.
The Twins can clear $70MM just by casting off players from free agency and who they already have positions covered. They’re going to drop about $20MM, meaning the Twins have $50MM to spend in free agency…
A Ford Pinto and Liberty Bibity insurance for 6 months, 6 tall boys of Bud Ice and a family weekend pass for Wisconsin Dells.
Dells pass does me no good. Thrown outta that town when I was 20. Told to never come back
Shoulder injuries are tough, former Brewer Jimmy Nelson’s career basically ended from one. Best to offer him a deal for two years and hope he takes it otherwise move on.
Dodgers love taking on broken down pitchers. Maybe they can trade them Lux?
Not for an injured pitcher.
Too few options here. What MIL should do is see if he will sign to term, or at least a 2-year deal largely backloaded to 2025 that can function as a one-year prove-it deal for that season. I think not tendering him at all is a mistake, unless he seriously wants way too much over the next two seasons (ie beyond like $15 million).
Well, nevermind, guess I kinda misread the question.
You posting without reading all the information? That never happens…
It just happened with German Marquez. He’d have hit free agency after 2024 which he ll miss most of, instead he signed a 2 year back loaded deal with COL.
I’m sorry I’ve annoyed you.
There is no such thing as a home-team discount so paying him in hopes that he re-signs after the season is just a pipe dream. He’ll sign for whatever the market will bear.
Non-tender him and the Dodgers sign him, guaranteed.
I think we’ll see him tendered, traded and extended for one season by the team acquiring him, to help mitigate the risk. Brewers will get one decent prospect, probably in a team’s #6 to #15 range, because Woodruff is great value for October 2024 and the 2025 season to contenders, who never have enough pitching.
If the Brewers trade Burnes and Adames and let Woodruff leave, they should just sell the team to someone who will put money into it. Getting rid of those three will hardly make an established manager run to Milwaukee to sign a contract. Counsell knew how to win despite a small budget. Same with Cash. Will the next guy be able to do that? Maybe that’s why Counsell left and went to a team that is willing to spend.
I think its unlikely they make much of an effort to get an established manager..unless it’s someone with a poor track record looking for a chance to reestablish his own career.
From the names I’ve seen, Mattingly and Kapler fit the bill. Both are probably too expensive for the club’s liking though. My guess is they bring in a first timer, dirt cheap, before the winter meetings when all the trades go down.
Phil Nevin is available, and I don’t think he’ll break anyone’s bank. Problem is……he’s Phil Nevin.
That’s assuming he makes a full recovery and returns to form. I don’t see them making that gamble.
But if they can’t win with them, they should trade them for prospects and beef up the farm system.
Counsell looked 2 years into the future of the brewers and saw the writing on the wall and bailed down south. Adames woodruff Burnes and Williams next year are gone. If they can find a team to take on Yelich’s contract he’s gone. It’s a mass youth movement on the horizon in brew city
Was Counsell an established manager when he joined the team? The defn of an established manager is someone who was fired somewhere else.
No, he wasn’t. That’s exactly the point.
Not every established manager has been fired from every prior job-specifically for failing. For example, Dusty Baker has been fired, and then won. Before you go insane, I know he’s not available. Neither is Bruce Bochy.
But the guys they’d CONSIDER bringing in are. Because they’re cheap, and has been hinted at-MKE might be tearing it down and who wants to take on a rebuild/retool with a team known for limiting payroll?
Like a few have mentioned, I think they should offer Woody a backloaded 2-year deal with maybe some options and bonuses involved. Shoulder injury seems serious, but I always saw him as likelier to re-sign over Burnes
He’s much more likely to sign…… probably will sign for two season easily. Why not when your career might be over. There is no way the Brew Crew will tender him. His best hope is to rehab and try to hold a showcase next offseason. The difference is this is not TJS which has a much higher success/return rate.
If they nontender him, someone will immediately sign him to a two-year deal. It’s not even a question. He’ll be paid handsomely to rehabilitate.
But will he pitch effectively when the rehab is over? No one knows.
A large market team may take the chance the rest cannot afford to.
Offer him 5 million for 2024 and 10 million for 2025, with incentives for number of starts or innings that could make the 2025 salary up to 15 million.
If they are rebuilding and he is pitching well in 2025, get good value for him at the trade deadline.
Why would he accept that from the Brewers if he can get a similar deal from a contender?
News flash: The Brewers are a contender.
Not really!
…says the guy whose team finished 21 games behind the Brewers.
For a frugal team, there’s basically no way out of non-tendering him. Who’s going to give them talent and take on the salary for a player who many never step on the mound next year? A low-ball offer won’t bring him to the table–he might as well wait it out, go free agent rather than burn his age 33 year,
Its in everyone’s best interest to do a 2 year deal I think. Without that I think they will non tender him.
I am guessing something similar to the Glasnow deal 2 years at $30 million. First year $5 million and second $25 million will get the deal done
Yeah that makes sense
That makes no sense. He’s due 11.6 In arbitration. He’s most likely out for 2023. MIL isn’t paying him 25 million in 2024 in the hopes that he recovers. He’s earned a raise, yes, but he’s injured. 2/20 is more likely. And it’s even more likely they non-tender.
That 2025 season is very valuable. There is a good chance he comes back healthy and performs well. That’s what the team who signs him would really be paying for.
There is a good chance? And what university did you get your medical degree from, doctor?
He’s a good pitcher. Guys come back from injuries all the time and perform well. Why do you think this is different?
Nothing is guaranteed. Burnes isn’t guaranteed to be good in 2025 either. But guys come back from injuries all the time. A team will take that chance on a 2 year deal because if he doesn’t come back all the way they can move on after 2025. This happens all the time.
The Brewers were 18-14 when Burnes started last year, 2 more losses is .500, on a team that won 92. He is not the same consistent pitcher he was when he won CY Young as shown in the playoffs. He shows flashes of greatness mixed with mediocrity.
He will be overpaid. The Brewers can replace what he is know compared to a few years ago, a lot easier. Woodruff had 11 starts, Adames was a strikeout king with low obp, despite power and good fielding. SS and pitchers are hard to come by , but if you judge recent performance, the trio of Burnes, Woodruff, Adames are over rated and will be overpaid in the future. None of them are improving, but want huge raises.
Not all injuries are the same. This is different because the record for recovering from shoulder injuries is worse than something like TJS.
If Glasnow has a market for 25 million in 2024 then Woodruff has one as well.
Neither, they are going to trade him the the Orioles for a player and some prospects.
They can’t trade him until they sign him.
If he refuses to negotiate a deal to spread out that $11.6 million over two seasons, the Brewers will have no choice but to non-tender him.
They will do neither. They will trade him to the Orioles for a player and some prospects.
Never mind, I was thinking Burnes, he is the one they will trade to the Orioles.
A modest 2 year deal sounds great in theory, but I doubt that will appeal to Woody. Even if he misses all next season, some team will still give him a lucrative 1-year prove-it deal for 2025. And if he does come back early he’ll make a mint in FA. If the Brewers want to salvage some value, they could show some loyalty and offer a 4-year deal now, dare Woody to turn down $50M+. It’s risky but the high reward is plausible.
I mean a “modest” two-year deal is roughly the same as a “lucrative” one-year deal in the sense that any two-year deal he gets is likely going to be crazy-backloaded. Like $1 this year and $15 next year or something along those lines.
Do you have change for a Twenty dollar bill?
No chance an actual MLB GM is going to be foolish enough to stake his career on a long-term deal for a SP who is just in the beginning stages of shoulder surgery rehab.
It’s like asking someone to play Russian Roulette with half of the chambers of the gun loaded.
Is this an opportunity to offer a longer term deal? Roll the dice. Seven years, $150 million? I think the Brewers could swing that and it’s a lot of money for an injured player to turn down.
WAA adjusted shows he was an average player so I’d not put significant investment in him. Non-Tender him.
Always liked Woodruff but realistically small market Brewers can’t afford to tender him and have that much dead money next season. 2 year make-good contract or non-tender is the way to go.
I would also like to go on record and say that I hope the Brewers swoop in and offer Yadi their manager’s job. And I hope he takes it. Even if they trade Adames and Burnes, this is still a young, talented team that could hang around and make things interesting in ’24 while developing a strategic plan for ’25. That would give Yadi a relatively low pressure first year to learn on the job, and great opportunity for team and manager to take a cohesive step forward in year two. Yadi can have his St Louis homecoming after the current power-hungry front office is gone. Go coach the younger Contreras. The elder is a lost cause.
Non-tender isn’t even an option for the front office. It’s sign a two year deal that gets him care he needs and bank on the second year.
$17 mil/2yrs + option – but brewers might not be competitive then either. I think a lot of teams would roll the dice trading, he’d have guaranteed great doctors, and the brew crew wouldn’t mind holding on if no deal came.
I love Woodruff, but unfortunately he’s hurt and isn’t pitching in 2024. Let him go. This is a business. My employer isn’t going to pay me if I am not able to work. This is no different.
Take that money and rip up Burnes contract and give him 3 years at $70M. You’ve already got Peralta super cheap through 2026. This way you have both signed through 2026 and that’s a real nice 1-2 punch.
Do some due diligence and take a look at Bauer and Urias.
If you’re scared, then go to Plan B with signing Maeda, Lugo and Ryu. That’s a very solid five man rotation that doesn’t blow up your payroll. You’ve got a nice bullpen with the best closer in the NL with Williams. Can probably add Kirby Yates at 1yr/$6M. Staff complete.
Got several bats on the market with pop. Can probably get Rhys Hopkins for 1yr/10M. Check in on Verdugo since the Red Sox are shopping him. Send Adames for him. You have a 1st round pick at SS with Turang.
Overpay for Justin Turner at 3B with 1yr/$13M.
Kick the tires on cheap additions with Amed Rosario (SS) and Eddie Rosario (OF) on one year deals with club options.
I can’t do it for you unless you want me to be an assistant. This should not be a rebuild/surrender. This should be a reload.
You, Sir, are tripping!
1. Hoskins is getting way north of $10 million.
2. Why would Red Sox trade a better player with 1-year of control for a worse player with the same amount of control?
3. Turner isn’t going to a team who has something like a 2% chance to win it all.
Prepare yourself for a cold bucket of water to your face in the form of REALITY this winter.
Red Sox need a SS. Go ahead and name one that’s better out there in free agency, on the Red Sox roster or in the Red Sox farm system. We’ll wait 😉
Btw, Turner said he’d want to go back to the Red Sox, who ironically have a 2% chance to win it all after finishing last in their division.
Adames is definitely more valuable than Verdugo. Verdugo is a league average bat in RF that has one good year defensively while Adames is a similar hitter that plays a good SS
I’m sure Burnes will be happy with only a 3 year deal. Adames for Verdugo is interesting, but I doubt either team is looking for a rental player back. Rosario might work at 2B. Turner is really a DH.
If it’s simply a matter of time to get it done more than Woodruff wanting to close the door to staying in Milwaukee, they can tender him and then only negotiate on the multi year deal. Maybe the 2 year but also maybe something more complicated like the Chad Green set of option decisions that still has some protection for both sides. If that can’t get worked out, they go to a hearing in which case the salary isn’t guaranteed and the severance pay they give him if they can’t get the extension done and release him is worth the price to have exclusive negotiating rights.
You can’t pay a guy 10% of your entire team salary when you know that player will not take the field. This is a non-tender and then offer the 2 yr contract. Or walk away. They did it with Jimmy Nelson a few years ago, unfortunately. They have several arms in the farm ready to come up. They are a better risk at this point, unfortunately. I like Woody, but he’s likely done as a Brewer.
Arbitration contracts aren’t guaranteed if they go to a hearing. If they tender him, they are the only team that gets to negotiate with him. If they have a sense he’s not interested in extending the relationship, then tendering him is just interfering with his market, but if he is interested, they can buy themselves some time to work it out.
MLB-TR is the best baseball blog out there hands down! Still, writers have talked about this firesale since 2021! I’m so tired of hearing it even though this year they finally might do a bit.
Most of thew bloggers here are fans of their own teams and no very little about other teams. That’s why this is NOT a huge rebuild for the Brewers since Turang, Frelick, Weimer and the injured Mitchell saw plenty of action in 2023.
Add in Chourio, MLB’s #2 prospect who will be a starter in 2025 along with MLB #’s 32, 36 and 51 for J. Quero, Jacob M, and Tyler Black ….wow, these are REALLY dark days in Brewtown huh? NOT!
I think the Brewers offer him a deal with a player option. $8MM for 2024, Player Option for $16MM 2025. Something like that, and I think Woodruff takes it. Good risk/reward for both sides.
If Woodruff misses the whole season, his market value is going to take a huge beating and he’s got a pillow contract in place.
If Woodruff makes it back early, the Brewers might be able to flip him at the trade deadline or benefit from his pitching down the stretch in case they’re in a playoff run.
I voted that they will non-tender him. But the classy thing to do would be to either go through arbitration or negotiate a mild extension so he can rehab with the club for which he was pitching while he was injured, especially if the Brewers expected he could contribute in the future. But it doesn’t seem they have the budget or wherewithal for such a move.
The poll answers are basically the same written differently.
Tender him. That’s a given. You see how he rehabs. Maybe it’s positive enough a team trades for him at deadline. I’d think if Milw did a 2 yr deal it’d look like 8M this year and 14 next year for 22 overall. Maybe they come to a deal of 1 yr with mutual option on year two. 8M with 3M buyout if option isn’t mutually agreed upon. Then wouldn’t Milw be able to give a QO to Woodruff if he were to decline that option?
For the small revenue Brewers this is a no-brainer. You non-tender Woodruff and allocate those $ on a healthy FA or extension $ elsewhere on the roster.