Click here to read the transcript of the Thanksgiving edition of the live baseball chat
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By Mark Polishuk | at
Click here to read the transcript of the Thanksgiving edition of the live baseball chat
MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com
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Bees?
Beads?!
I have to disagree heavily on moving Tatis. He is the exact type of in-house superstar you keep forever!
One of the dumbest bits about padres I’ve seen on here (and there is an even dumber padres article every day).
Tatis is the most valuable player on the team because of his deal with such low AAV for his whole career. Why would the padres ever move him because of money. Acee wrote some nonsense avout finances and every person in baseball lost every semblance of logic.
Long term effect of ringworm are kinda sketchy.
I almost fell over I was laughing so hard. The Padres would never consider that package for Tatis who is platinum in the field and a silver slugger. Mayer is a major suspect as a prospect. Hit in the 230s this past year and Roman is years away.
Trading Tatis for Mayer & Anthony or a 2x more expensive Gausman in 24 aren’t happening.
On a team filled with superstars he’s by far the key player in SD.
If they’re looking to save money in the short term his 11m ain’t doing much.
Agree, his take on Tatis made me question his baseball knowledge a lot. Tatis isn’t moving. On top of that, the Padres are looking to win now and trading Tatis for prospects doesn’t do that. The Padres financial “woes” are highly exaggerated. It’s the same as last off season people being wishful for Tatis, Soto, Machado and anyone else. People playing fantasy offseason.
To be clear, I said such an offer from the Sox would get the Padres’ attention, not that they would jump to make the deal. Obviously they’d look to move shorter-term salaries like Soto before considering Tatis trades, but I don’t think moving Tatis is the most outlandish idea in the world.
At this point last year, remember, Tatis’ trade value was minimal and his extension was seen as a huge mistake for the Padres. And, we don’t know the extent of the Padres’ spending situation yet, or how the team’s approach might change without Peter Seidler.
I probably should’ve made these points in the chat, but c’est la vie!
Trading Tatis for a package headlined by Mayer when they have an equal or better SS prospect in Jackson Merrill doesn’t make a whole lotta sense.
To say nothing of Xander Bogaerts or Ha-seong Kim on the big league squad.
I have a bowman chrome 1st auto of Roman Anthony so I’m rooting for him, but there are at least four prospects on the Padres that I like more.
That package would take minimal mental input for Preller to turn down. They paid him around 7m for 5.5 wins and I know I expect his bar to be even better in 2024 being further removed from shoulder & wrist surgeries. His statcast was promising Lookinh forward and his defense was special.
Top 4 selling Jersey in mlb in 2023… SD loves him!!!!
@Mark P – thanks for commenting here to elaborate on your point. A chat doesn’t allow for in-depth analysis when you’re trying to answer lots of questions quickly.
padrepapi – while I agree it is unlikely the Padres would trade Tatis, citing his 2023 and ’24 salaries to demonstrate how much of a bargain he is ignores his greatly increased salaries in future years when his performance is likely to have dropped off, especially at the tail end of his 14-year deal.
gbs42 – First off, keep in mind that I’m of the opinion that Tatis’ contract is the one the team that’s actually going to provide a lot of surplus value in the future and I wouldn’t make it go away if that was an option.
Over the next 5 years they will pay him 104.5m for his age 25 to 29 seasons (11.7m, 20.7m, 20.7m, 25.7m, 25.7m). That is a bargain for a player of his caliber and he is more then capable of earning what’s owed to him over those 5 years in only 2 of them he is so good and affordable.
When the big money kicks in, 6 years at 36.7m each covering his age 30-35 seasons in 2030-2035, the Darvish & Musgrove deals will be over, Cronenworth’s will have 2/24m left, etc.
There is definitely some risk holding onto him considering we are talking about an 11 year commitment, but in terms of likelihood of being worth the contract AND provide surplus value, it’s relatively safe.
He definitely puts more butts in the seats then any other Padre. Fresh off a Petco Attendance record, he’s the last guy you move.
36 M for Tatis in 6-9 yrs will be a huge bargain, top players will be making 50-60 M by then
Nothing new here. Just an opinion following an opinion following an opinion that the Padres are suddenly insane and now intent on giving up everything wonderful about the team, just….because it would make Acee etc… happy. The Pads are as likely to trade Tati as Braves would trade Acuna, or as Travis Kelce would trade Taylor Swift for Amy Poehler
There is also zero proof the Pads are financially struggling, or at least it doesn’t take much in depth research to learn there isn’t. So why perpetuate the extreme view without evidence?
As a fan of the Padres (not my main team) I do not want them to trim payroll by 50mil. But this narrative is everywhere I read about baseball and has been for 2-3 weeks now. If it’s merely a made-up rumor, you would think the story would have been straightened out by now, by somebody…by Rosenthal, by Kim, by someone. But AFAIK it has not been refuted so I am beginning to think it’s an actual thing. But I hope I’m wrong.
Gausman vs Tatis:
Gausman- 32 years old, $24 million per year, signed for 3 years, averages 2.3 WAR, had 3.4 WAR in 2023
Tatis- 25 years old, $24 million per year, signed for 10 years, averages 6.3 WAR, had 5.5 WAR in 2023
Tatis averages almost 3 times the WAR, per year, at the same price. Can anyone, using advanced math, tell me which of these is a better deal?
@Gwynning, Sigh. Yes. I understand Mark’s point, but if the reports are correct and the Padres need to drop payroll further, then they also need to balance that against the significantly increased revenue that comes with being second in the NL in attendance. Tatis is only making $11MM in 2024. Losing him only minimally helps reduce payroll, but likely hurts significantly on the revenue side. Sure they should look to see if they can get a killer package of talent to make the Pads better in 2024, but chances are they’re a stronger organization on the field (baseball wise) and in the front office (revenue wise) by holding Tatis. He’s someone to build around.
@LordD, I don’t think the Padres are very concerned about Tatis’ 2024 salary. It’s the ~$300M in future commitments they could be interested in ridding themselves of.
Likely? No. Possible? Certainly.
We all seem to get ‘it’… everybody- and I do mean that specifically- every MLB team wants Platinum Glove Tatis at his low AAV. Well, we signed him to it, so perhaps we get ‘it’ the best. If the Pads are trying to pull the plug on the remaining memory of Seidler’s wish (and San Diegans by proxy) and admit that 2nd highest MLB attendance is not somewhere the franchise wants to be, then yes, they will entertain the thought of moving Tatis and backstabbing the Friar Faithful. We all seem to “know” what Acee’s singular (and flawed) report inferred… and it ain’t happening. That certainly hasn’t stopped the media juggernaut from their random speculation- again, we get it. They will take the ball and run, if only for clicks! Tatis & Machado (and quite honestly, hopefully Soto) are life-long Pads. I know sports are interjected with uncertainties, but I’ll stand by that statement. The possibility mentioned by you, gbs, is only a fraction of a minute percentage point. Everything is possible, yet some things are unequally more certain. Acuña isn’t getting traded, but we would all hear about it if some backcountry blowhard wrote an article saying how the Braves need to trim payroll, however misaligned their take is. Happy Holidays gents, stay blessed amigos!
It’s really hard to see the Pads moving Tatis Jr. He only counts 21+ million towards the salary cap he will easily cover that for the foreseeable future. It’s a non starter. They should look to pay down Bogey and move him they really don’t need him just suck it up pay him down put Kim at short where he’s better defensively. They can probably save 18-20 million a year there.
Pads I don’t think you watched Anthony this year maybe Salas is a better prospect but that’s it in the Pads org. Mayer was hitting .337/.414/.582 before his shoulder injury really breaking out. Injury killed him when he tried to come back early and play through it not the same guy. Anthony will easily be a top 20 prospect in baseball. His Power/hit with great plate discipline is what you want to see in a high end prospect.
Let me be clear I’m not advocating a trade for Tatis. Signed at a 21+ lux tax number until what 2035 that’s huge value from a known quantity and the only way you make that trade is if you are rebuilding completely the Pads aren’t so it makes no sense. I do think you are underrating Anthony and Mayer though.
My response regarding Mayer and Anthony ended up at the bottom of the comments.
They can both be valuable prospects and at the same time not be anything close to what a package would need to look like from a Padres POV. I’m not sure if there is a team that would value Mayer less than the Padres from a team need.
That 300 million could get them yy or snell they need pitching not roided up hitters
Because it’s only 300M instead of 500 which is what he’d get on market, the Pads can have Tatis AND plenty left over for pitching.
I exist!
Jorge78 thinks! Therefore he IS!
Mark, why are you always so terrified of Trout questions? Are you scared of fish? Is it personal? You never go for Trout questions…
I’ve been answering “will Mike Trout ask for a trade?” questions for years, and it’s the same answer every time.
Thanks for replying on this festive day Mark! I was the one begging for the “Trout MVP” Poll. I thought it was a pretty good one don’t you think? I know you all can’t get to everything. I’ll try again next time!
“Carlos Beltran probably has to wait one or two more years before more writers stop punishing him for the Astros’ scandal”
Why exactly should/would writers forgive Beltran for directly being implicated in arguably the biggest cheating scandal in 100 years?
But…but…but..”EVERYONE” was/is doing it???
Hard to believe that at one time many experts preferred Moncada over Albies. Now some fans act like they seem to think that Moncada has little future.
What does the bees and beans reference mean?
I think it is from the TV Show “The Office.” Might be wrong. I don’t care enough to google it. Happy Turkey Day
it’s just dumb
Indeed
Would love to see Soto in Atlanta, if only for one year. If the Braves traded for him and signed Gray, that could make for a special 2024.
Kyle Wright says it won’t happen while kicking rocks in KC.
1.Betts RF
2.Freeman 1B
3.Trout. CF
4.Ohtani. DH
5.Soto LF
6.Smith C
7.Muncy 3B
8.Taylor 2B
9.Lux SS
lol
Adding Trout, Ohtani and Soto really lengthens the Dodgers lineup. And I’m confident the Angels and Pads would be happy to strengthen the Dodgers. Idk why Friedman hasn’t thought of this.
Neither do I.
Angels&NLWest, If Trout WANTED to be traded they COULD stop him, but they wouldn’t…..Ohtani is fair game….and as far as Soto, Padres need all the help they can get. They ain’t gonna say no either. Soto is gone soon enough anyway.
1. Kim
2. Tatis
3. Acuna
4. Soto
5. Machado
6.Guerrero Jr
7. Ohtani
8. Bogaerts
9. Salas
You forgot Rutschman and Gerrit Cole.
That wouldnt be realistic
Angelos would never allow Trout to go to the Dodgers. He hates then.
The MLB Trade Rumours line was very well-played, sir. I got more than a few chuckles outta that one.
LOL he said Padres wold like to get rid of Tatis. Certified worthless chat.
Your reading comprehension skills need work. Certified worthless comment.
I think the first question answered about the Rays hugely depends on a Wander Franco resolution. If his career is over as some have speculated, the Rays just found $174M to spend.
They need to prove “Breach of Contract” after any investigation(s) have taken place. Historically the League has had trouble voiding guaranteed contracts, although an exact example escapes me right now. Alternatively, they could negotiate a buyout, of which would still hit the CBT (if I’m not mistaken.)
Furthermore, though the specific terms of Franco’s contract are unknown, it has to conform with the Universal Player Contract. It says in Paragraph 7(a), a team can, with some conditions, terminate a contract if a player shall “fail, refuse or neglect to conform his personal conduct to the standards of good citizenship.”
It’s all bad pub for the League, and I’m sure they will try to keep it as far under wraps as possible, but we will hear the pertinent details in due time.
Mark P I don’t usually actually laugh out loud to something I read , but MLB Trade Rumours did it.
It’s time to let these “supposed” PED players into the Hall of Fame. If a player was caught cheating, then that’s another matter, but just because the evidence looks like they were… sorry, not good enough.
Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa, Manny certainly deserve to be in. ARod is the only potential HoFer suspended for using PEDS. Let Rose in also… so what, he gambled on games. You don’t think guys like Cobb, Ruth, Satchel Page didn’t bet? Shoeless Joe belongs in also. These players deserve to be in and they would make some interesting stories for the Hall.
Keep Rose out forever. He was 100% aware of the risk he was taking, violating the one rule that will make you permanently ineligible (not just a lifetime ban), and he didn’t care.
If you’re going to imply Cobb, Ruth, and Paige bet on games, you better have strong evidence, not just “yeah, I think they probably did.”
I watched a decent amount of Roman Anthony’s highlights after pulling his chrome 1st auto to see if I should hold it or sell (I’m holding). There is definitely a lot to like there and a big up arrow next to his name.
In a vacuum Anthony and Mayer are two very nice prospects that could head a package for a very valuable player. So I’m not trying to say they are meh prospects, they are not.
That said Marcelo Mayer makes little sense to comprise a big chunk of the return to SD. Both MLB pipeline think Jackson Merrill is the better prospect (#9 vs #11) as does Fangraphs live rankings on The Board (#7 vs #16). I haven’t seen any rankings putting Roman Anthony above Jackson Merrill or Ethan Salas.
Fernando Tatis Jr, the first guy in baseball history to hit 40 HR’s and steal 30 bases in his first 162 games. The fastest player in baseball history to hit 50 HR’s and have 50 SB’s.
I know your not saying they should trade him or think they will, but if they were it wouldn’t be for that kind of package headlined by a redundant piece, even if he has SD ties. The Padres are going to be adding another SS to their system in the upcoming weeks when they sign #1 2023/2024 international prospect Leo De Vries. And in a world where they trade fan favorite Tatis it seems super unlikely they would let their other fan favorite Ha-Seong Kim depart after 2024 further making the need for a top SS prospect unnecessary.
So yeah, if the Padres had a shortstop need and were hell bent on trading Tatis that package would be pretty good start, but since neither of those are true it doesn’t bare much weight.
Since you talked about pulling a 1st Bowman Chrome Roman Anthony I’ll give you a tip. Watch his ground ball rates at AA Portland this year and the Worcester.
He hits the ball really hard he controls the strike zone a little like Casas but he hits a lot of ground balls. Saw an interview after the season he acknowledged the ground ball issue and he intends to work on it. If he can keep his all fields approach and cut some of his ground ball rates and hit a few more fly balls and line drives he’s a superstar. It’s something to watch going forward. Congrats on pulling that card.