The Mariners have decided not to extend a $20.325MM qualifying offer to outfielder Teoscar Hernández, reports Daniel Kramer of MLB.com.
This is arguably the most surprising news to come out of the qualifying offer deadline, which just passed at 4:00 pm Central. All seven players to receive the QO were obvious locks, but it seemed possible that some other pitchers and position players could be on that list. Hernández seemed like one of the more likely QO candidates but will now head to the open market unencumbered.
An impending free agent is eligible for a qualifying offer if they just spent the entire season with only one club and have not received one previously in their career. If the player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, the signing club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties while the player’s previous club gets draft pick compensation.
Hernández had a bit of a down year in 2023, relative to his own standards, but had been one of the better sluggers in baseball over the previous three seasons. He hit 73 home runs for the Blue Jays from 2020 to 2022, slashing .283/.333/.519 in the process. That amounted to a wRC+ of 133, indicating he was 33% better than the league average hitter in that stretch, putting him in the top 20 of all qualified hitters in that time.
The Jays traded him to the Mariners going into 2023 and then his production slipped. He still hit 26 home runs but his strikeout rate jumped to 31.1%, after being at a combined 27.2% over the previous three years. His .258/.305/.435 line translated to a wRC+ of just 105. That was obviously not what the M’s envisioned when they traded for him, but it’s possible their pitching-friendly home park played a role, as he had a wRC+ of just 81 at home for the year but 126 on the road.
The upcoming free agent market is generally weak in terms of impact bats, despite being headlined by Shohei Ohtani. Despite his down year, Hernández was going to be one of the most attractive bats available. It was generally expected that the Mariners would extend the qualifying offer to him and he probably still could have found decent offers in free agency. But they evidently believed there was risk of him accepting the QO in the event they offered it. Since they chose not to do so suggests that having him back in Seattle next year at a salary of $20.325MM was an undesirable outcome for them.
That perhaps doesn’t bode well for next year’s budget for the club, but it’s also possible they are trying to keep powder dry at this early stage of the offseason. The Mariners, along with many other clubs, are expected to pursue Ohtani as a Plan A this winter with all other options Plan B. As the Mariners assess their odds in that pursuit, perhaps they didn’t want to risk having a sizable chunk of their budget already spoken for by Hernández.
This only helps him out as a free agent, since receiving a QO has a negative effect on a player’s earning power. Being saddled with draft pick forfeiture will cause some clubs to lower how much they are willing to spend on a given player while some other will steer clear of such players completely. By avoiding the QO, Hernández can avoid any such worries.
You idiots!!!
Ohtani is not signing with the Mariners.
He didn’t do enough. Period.
Then why not trade him at the deadline? The Mariners were clearly in seller mode as evidenced by their trade of Paul Sewald so the only reason to keep Teo was so they could QO him.
I doubt there would be much demand. There are better uses for roster space.
I agree Fred. I’m sure they tried. Probably not much demand.
This narrative that we were in sellers mode has gotta go. The M’s don’t really operate with one clear path. Sewald was moved because he’s a reliever and only had 1.5 years of team control. The org is extremely confident in its ability to develop or fix relievers. The return was an offer they liked so they were willing to move him due to a confidence they could replace Sewald’s value.
@myaccount2 They couldn’t replace his value. Trading Sewald was giving up on 2023. Period.
You know nothing about the roster construction of the Mariners or how they operate if you’re coming to this conclusion, so your “period” is meaningless and, quite frankly, ignorant.
You didn’t respond to any of myaccount2’s excellent points. They were not giving up – they traded from an area of strength to shore up a weakness, in this case their position player depth. Rojas and Canzone played important depth rolls after Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock couldn’t cut it and Kelenic kicked a cooler and got hurt. They needed those guys, and they almost won the division with them. Plus they got another really interesting prospect in Ryan Bliss. You’re simply wrong about them giving up. Period.
Thanks, Bobby Ayala. Astute observations on your part, also. Certainly much better than your pitching lol
Sewald was ripe for regression when they traded him. I like everything about Sewald, except him being used in the 7th inning or later, with his price tag, he’s just not worth it. He’s too extreme at giving up flyballs and when he’s not nibbling the edge well, he walks guys and then pounds the zone, which in turn leads to him getting pounded by the other team. Add to that he is absolutely owned by Bergman, who’ll be there for the better part of the next decade in Houston. They absolutely did right getting rid of him and the bullpen didn’t even notice. If you point towards any blown saves to justify his value, then you’d be the person who believes good bullpens never fail, which is garbage.
* Bregman
@myaccount2 Answer this question when is the last time a team traded Paul Sewald or someone like him at the deadline and made the WS that year?
Go on. I’ll wait.
@BobbyAyala93 I didn’t respond because they were not excellent points. If their bullpen was such an area of strength why did they blow so many saves down the stretch?
Joey Canzone was below replacement level for the M’s in 2023. He might be decent in like 2025 but the M’s needed someone who would help them win NOW, like… well… Paul Sewald.
How does Ryan Bliss help them now?
Your argument is bringing up a bunch of prospects. They might help the Mariners down the road but that’s what they are. Prospects. It is past time that we admit that the Paul Sewald trade was a SELLER trade. It was a REBUILDING trade. Meant only to add years of control to the Mariners’ roster at the expense of 2023 wins. If that is what they want to do then that’s fine but if so there was no point in keeping Teo for the last w months of a season they had already given up on.
No Thank_God_We_Arent_Angels. You’re wrong. The M’s bullpen absolutely misses Sewald. They were blowing saves left and right down the stretch. And Sewald was NOT ripe for regression. Just look at his performance down the stretch and in the NLWC, NLDS and NLCS. And no you don’t like everything about him. The both of us know that that is a vicious vicious lie.
Just admit it. The Paul Sewald trade was giving up on the 2023 season. The Mariners missed the playoffs entirely without him and they deserved it.
You can wait all you want, but you’re shifting the goalposts. Your original argument was that the M’s were sellers. They weren’t, and winning the World Series is independent of their deadline stance as either a buyer or seller. Were the Dbacks sellers this season for trading two players from their big league roster? How about TB–they both buy and sell every year, would you always label them sellers?
Because what TB does is what the M’s were trying to do: churn value. They acquired a headliner they believe to be an MLB LF (not some prospect) for an MLB reliever. Sewald was part of that process.
@goose- You have no idea what you’re talking about. Munoz was 13/16 save opportunities. The M’s had the 7th fewest blown saves in the league. The bullpen did not suddenly become bad. Of you’re going to argue a point about a team that you don’t root for so vehemently, at least do research first instead of parroting ridiculous talking points to try to make an absurd argument.
@myaccount2 They were sellers. Non-sellers don’t trade players like Paul Sewald in-season.
I’ll ask it again. When is the last time a team trades a player of Sewald’s caliber in-season and made the WS?
You mention TB. How did that work out for them? They got bounced in the WC when this looked to be their year just 5 months ago.
You keep saying the same things over and over but it doesn’t make them true. You are also avoiding legitimate questions (were the Dbacks sellers?) while asking me stupid ones. On top of that, you have no nuance for trade deadline statuses. It’s not cut and dry. To think so is silly. I’m not sure if you’re trolling or just refusing to listen to the loads of people who are correcting you, but either way, you’re wrong.
I failed to make my point. That’s on me.
Paul Sewald is great, but he would probably admit he’s not Rivera-esque.
We had other (viable) closer options at the time that we traded him.
Like how we traded Graveman and gave the reigns to Sewald.
Same thing… different year.
@myaccount2…
“You keep saying the same things over and over but it doesn’t make them true.”
You’re wight. They were already true before I said them.
“You are also avoiding legitimate questions (were the Dbacks sellers?) while asking me stupid ones.”
No the D-Backs were not sellers. No one they gave up in that trade was contributing at the major league level. They gave up a guy who needed a change of scenery and two prospects.
“I’m not sure if you’re trolling or just refusing to listen to the loads of people who are correcting you, but either way, you’re wrong.”
Funny. We were part of the same conversation but view the outcome differently.
@League Minimum And how’d that work out for ya? Notice how Seattle remains the only team without a pennant ever.
Everyone here views the outcome differently than you lmao. You should reconsider talking in-depth about teams you don’t follow while having such a closed mindset. When fans of the team you’re making incorrect statements about redirect your thinking toward correct ones, it’s likely they know more than you.
And no, those things were not “already true before [you] said them” and they’re still not true, as evidenced by zero responses agreeing with you and receiving practically no upvotes while every comment is correcting you and all of those are receiving upvotes. It’s a very obvious tell on this site for peoples’ thoughts on opinions and clearly everyone thinks yours is asinine. I hope you’re more open to other viewpoints in real life, particularly when you’re the lone dissident. Good luck.
I was having flashbacks of Ayala on the mound. Not fun! lol
Upvotes on this website mean nothing. Zero, none, zilch, zip, nada.
What’s asinine is you think trading a great reliever for a guy who had been below replacement level up to that point in the season and two prospects somehow made the Mariners’ immediate major league team better. If that were true the Diamondbacks would have never done it. That trade was about 2024 and beyond for Seattle. Period.
Rally Goose,
2017 Dodgers traded Sergio Romo, who went on to post a 1.47 ERA with the Rays over 30.2 IP.
Romo (34 at time of trade) finishing the year with a 3.56 ERA with a 6.8 H/9; 9.5 SO/9; 3..1 BB/9; 1.5 HR/9; and a 1.096 WHIP.
Compared with Paul Sewald (33 at time of trade) 3.12 ERA with a 6.8 H/9; 11.9 SO/9; 3.6 BB/9; 1.2 HR/9; and a 1.154 WHIP.
Both are softer throwing RHP with closing experience, who were entering their mid-30s, with above average swing and miss sliders, prone to giving up homeruns, while posting slightly elevated walk totals to go along with above-average strikeouts, and identical number of hits per 9 innings!
While Sewald averages more strikeouts and gave up fewer homeruns, he was more prone to walking guys and had a higher WHIP. Short of copying Sewald we couldn’t find a more appropriate guy to compare him to including their pitching styles and both being underdogs from the Southwest. They grew up less than 250 miles from each other in neighboring states and Romo was always questioned for his size and velo, while Sewald had an absolutely horrible track record as a MLB pitcher before the Mariners fixed him. They have so much in common, I’d be demanding a DNA test, if Sewald wasn’t a foot taller than him!
Rally Goose,
You are conflating coincidence and causation. The Mariners weren’t blowing games down the stretch because of their bullpen, they were losing because they had the stupidest schedule in the history of their franchise, which is known for being given stupid schedules. They also fell flat in September offensively and couldn’t score runs.
As to the point of his ripe for regression being false, let’s see some numbers…
*Sewald in 2022: 3.88 FIP; 1.4 HR/9; 2.4 BB/9; 10.1 SO/9
*Sewald in 2023: 3.57 FIP; 1.2 HR/9; 3.6 BB/9; 11.9 SO/9
———————————————————————————————-
In Seattle 2023: 2.95 FIP; 1.0 HR/9; 2.9 BB/9; 12.6 SO/9
In Arizona 2023: 5.07 FIP; 1.5 HR/9; 5.1 BB/9; 10.2 SO/9
———————————————————————————————-
That’s pretty much the definition of regression! Man, the Mariners really would’ve saved their season with almost 20 IP of 5.07 FIP from their closer! By the way, how do you know what I do and don’t like about Paul Sewald?! I think he’s a cool guy, a good teammate, speaks his mind, has good leadership skills, and cares about winning,
I just don’t think he should be in high leverage positions, which as a person who watched all of his games for 2+years, I would say makes me far more qualified to make that determination, than a guy like you who watches a few highlights on SportsCenter!
Also, you can argue with stats, even use a little conjecture, but don’t call someone a liar unless you really have hard proof. If you actually knew my position, I’ve been saying this for over a year on X/Twitter, as well as different Mariners chats like LookoutLanding, Locked On Mariners, etc.
Rally Goose,
I gave you a prime example above in the chat of Sergio Romo, but even then I know you think you found some argument, but specifying that they had to go to the World Series (which I found an example), is an arbitrary outcome. If you wanted to be fair and unbiased, they would just have to make the playoffs. The point is it’s a crapshoot once you’re in there as the two Wild Card teams making the World Series in 2023 proves.
If the Mariners traded Paul Sewald and still won the AL West, which was actually a possible outcome right up to the final weekend, you’d be saying the reason they didn’t win the World Series was because they traded Paul Sewald?! The two teams that made the World Series finished 23rd (TEX) and 24th (ARI) in team bullpen.
There’s a lot more that goes into roster construction than simply the bullpen. In fact, the Mariners finished with the 10th best record despite being in the same division with the two teams that last won a World Series (HOU & TEX), while having another team run out two ex-MVP winners and arguably the two best players of their generation in their prime, while tossing $250M at their 2023 payroll. Aside from the AA Athletics, it’s a much tougher division than the AL Central, NL Central, and NL West…
Now on to throwing some cold water on your failed logic…
World Series Teams….
2023 Rangers: 4.45 FIP; 4.41 xFIP; 2.6 fWAR (23rd)
2023 Dbacks: 4.34 FIP; 4.26 xFIP; 2.2 fWAR (24th)
———————————————————————————————-——-—-
Bad Bullpen Mariners
2023 Mariners: 3.80 FIP; 3.80 xFIP; 5.7 fWAR (6th)
———————————————————————————————-——-—-
The Dbacks Bullpen Before/After
4 months – Dbacks 4.24 FIP; 4.18 xFIP; 2.2 fWAR (21st without Sewald)
2 months – Dbacks: 4.51 FIP; 4.42 xFIP; 0.3 fWAR (24th with Sewald)
———————————————————————————————-——-—-
Yup Sewald was definitely the difference maker for the Dbacks!
Rally Goose,
That’s racist and incorrectly spelled, let alone the fact we don’t even know the race of myaccount2, nor should it matter!
Just so you know, you just need to swap the ‘g’ for an ‘e’ and rearrange the letters from wight to white, but again really racist and incorrectly spelled.
@Thank_God_We_Arent_Angels BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK! Wrong! Thanks for playing! Sergio Romo was below replacement level with the Dodgers in 2017. He might have returned to form in TB but he was not contributing in LA that year.
If Sewald sucks as much as you think he does what was he doing nailing down all those saves in the NLWC, NLDS and NLCS?
Oh Hell nah, I ain’t readin’ all dat s**t!
As much as I hated to see Paul traded, that particular trade was not made because we were “selling”. It was trading from depth to fill a couple of positions (no thanks to Wong and Kelenic).
You’re correct, League Minimum; however, it appears RallyGoose will stick to his guns and refuse to listen to the numerous M’s fans who happen to pay more attention to the organization than say, I don’t know, a Padres fan.
@League Minimum Canzone was garb for the Mariners in 2023. If they wanted Rojas they should have traded prospects for him not arguably their best reliever. There is a reason they missed the playoffs. It’s because they sold at the deadline.
@myaccount2 Why didn’t the Padres, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and Rangers trade Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, Kenley Jansen, Clay Holmes, Craig Kimbrel and Will Smith, respectively, at the trade deadline? Getting value for a reliever while you still can is more important than pushing for a title, right? So why didn’t those teams trade those players?
Because those teams were clear buyers. Like I’ve repeatedly said, there’s nuance to the M’s trade deadline stance; they tried to play both sides, selling a reliever with little control to buy a LF they believe can be the guy now with much more team control. They will continue to make moves like this in years where they take a similar stance. Also, you’re ignoring the answers I’ve already provided you about why we choose to churn value for relievers. I’ll repeat it again since you’re having difficulty reading my replies: The M’s are confident in their ability to acquire and develop effective relievers. None of those other teams should feel that way. And there is no other position they will do this with. Our owner is also cheap and we hit our offseason ceiling for salaries after acquiring Teo, Wong, and Pollock. So obviously trimming salary fat was appealing to him, too.
@Rally
If you listen to local sports radio, Sewald “knew” he was destined to be an ex-M well before the trade with AZ.
At least Jerry is predictable. 🙂
@myaccount2…
“Because those teams were clear buyers.”
That’s exactly it! You just admitted the Mariners weren’t buyers. Buyers don’t trade Sewald-esque players. Ever.
“They will continue to make moves like this in years where they take a similar stance.”
And will continue to miss the playoffs.
“Also, you’re ignoring the answers I’ve already provided you about why we choose to churn value for relievers.”
What’s more important: Championships or prospects?
“The M’s are confident in their ability to acquire and develop effective relievers.”
Which explains their bullpen’s inability to hold leads down the stretch after they traded Sewald.
Just watch bro. No team that trades a Sewald-esque player in-season will EVER make the WS. It is why you and your friends keep bringing up how much club control Rojas, Canzone and Bliss have in an attempt to defend the trade. Because you know it didn’t help the M’s NOW.
Joey Canzone? I don’t know why you have such a fetish for declaring “sellers” or “buyers”. They clearly weren’t giving up on the season. I understand you’re making a lame attempt at trolling though, so I guess carry on.
Yes, I admitted the Mariners weren’t buyers. THAT DOES NOT MAKE THEM SELLERS. I’M GOING TO YELL IT BECAUSE YOU DON’T SEEM TO COMPREHEND THAT.
They were sellers, it was a punt of the 2023 season to trade Sewald. The Mariners had to move everyone up one spot in the pen and they did fine until it mattered. Everyone gassed out and they just couldn’t pitch well enough to get in the playoffs. Then as always when you don’t have enough relievers down the stretch they couldn’t finish the job..
Bigger point is look at how the Diamondbacks pen fared post Sewald trade, everyone moves down one rung and immediately finds success. Also can’t forget that in the eyes of the players this was a sell, Dbacks pumped to get a guy and the Mariners sad to see one go.
But your bigger point is unrelated to the topic. The outcome of their season and the direct impact it had on the bullpen doesn’t change that they played both sides of the fence; it’s their thought process in late July on the moves to make going forward that matter. If they were a seller, they would’ve traded Teo for sure, probably France, and would have listened more intently on Gilbert. It is well-documented that they had offers for all 3.
Dipoto badly wanted to add offense. He’s long coveted Rojas, and obviously Canzone was a target of his. In order to get those players, they had to churn relief value. If Sewald had 2.5 years instead, they probably don’t make that move. But it wasn’t the first time and it won’t be the last.
If they were sellers why didn’t they trade impending FA’s like Teoscar? Or other bullpen guys? Why did they trade for 2 major leaguers instead of just prospects? If they were “punting” none of that would make sense.
@BobbyAyala93 Yes the Brewers did give up on the season when they traded Sewald. You just have to face reality.
@myaccount2 Trading Sewald = selling. When is the last time a team traded someone like him and made the WS that year?
@WinkersPizza Nailed it.
@myaccount2 And how did playing both sides of the fence work out? Like, for them, for their chances of contending?
France has 2 more years. He’s a player you keep even if you are selling.
If he wanted to add offense he could have traded prospects for it. No reason to trade his best reliever. The Brewers tried this last year when they traded Josh Hader and guess what? They missed the playoffs too!
“But it wasn’t the first time and it won’t be the last.”
Which is why they will continue to miss the playoffs.
@BobbyAyala93 If they weren’t selling why did they trade their best reliever for a change of scenery candidate and two prospects?
“I thought we were better than this. I really did. I thought we were going to have a lot better year. I thought adding some bats was going to help, but losing Paul [Sewald] at the trade deadline definitely hurt. And that was a big spot in our season.” – Cal Raleigh
The actual PLAYERS don’t agree with you lol.
They needed depth- they were giving at bats to Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock(34 and 54 OPS+ with Seattle in ‘23). Say what you want about Canzone – he was a major upgrade, and with less than 200 ABs in the Majors, still has upside. Rojas played a ton down the stretch and was a major upgrade over Wong. So they lacked position player depth, and had an abundance of bullpen depth, along with a track record of developing good bullpen arms. Just look at Sewald before they got him. So, yes, they traded a good player – they got badly needed depth back in return, plus some future upside, and then finish 2 games back of the 2 best teams in AL this year(and last 2 World Series winners) in their division. I get you just want to declare something negative in you lame little attempt at trolling, but I’m sure you can understand that just because a team trades a good player, doesn’t necessarily mean their punting. Do you really think that’s what a sell off by Jerry DiPoto would look like? One trade? Why didn’t they trade Hernandez? Or any other arms? Because they were trying to win the division.
@BobbyAyala93 I’ll say it again. If you want to add depth you trade PROSPECTS. Not your best reliever. It is not trolling to say that the Mariners TANKED after trading Sewald and that that trade was 100% about adding future control and upside at the expense of current wins. The actual players agree with me. They were not happy about Paul Sewald being traded.
If Dipoto was trying to win the division why did he trade his best reliever for 3 guys who weren’t expected to make the team better in 2023? Why didn’t other contenders trade their closers at the deadline in 2023?
It was intended to make them better, that’s the point. They had a bunch of good relievers and they feel very confident in their ability to develop more (just like they did with Sewald, Gravemen, etc). They had a glaring weakness, so the addressed it. You say they should have traded prospects – and you know what, if they were 8 games ahead in the standings, I might agree with you. But they were kind of in between- not ready to mortgage the future for a run in ‘23, but too good to punt, so they tried to make a move that would help both this year and in the future. Maybe you disagree with that strategy, and I can understand that – But that still doesn’t mean they were giving up on the season. If they were tearing down, they would have made more moves. Your argument is just, hey, they traded a good player, so they’re giving up.
Tanked? You’re not that dumb. They finished 2 games back of Texas AND Houston – I’m not sure if you heard, but those teams were pretty good this year. And they only traded one good player – for depth they desperately needed. You know that’s not tanking. Disagree with the strategy if you want, but calling this “tanking” is just a pathetic attempt at trolling.
@BobbyAyala93…
“It was intended to make them better, that’s the point.”
No it wasn’t lmfao. They traded their best reliever for 3 guys who weren’t expected to help in 2023.
“They had a bunch of good relievers and they feel very confident in their ability to develop more…”
Then why did their bullpen suck down the stretch?
“They had a glaring weakness, so the addressed it.”
By opening another hole on the roster.
“”You say they should have traded prospects – and you know what, if they were 8 games ahead in the standings, I might agree with you. But they were kind of in between- not ready to mortgage the future for a run in ‘23…”
Exactly. So they punted by selling Sewald.
“so they tried to make a move that would help both this year and in the future.”
Nope. Just in the future. If it helped them right now and in the future it would mean it hurt the Diamondbacks right now and in the future. Why would the Diamondbacks do that?
“Maybe you disagree with that strategy, and I can understand that.”
As do informed fans across the country.
“But that still doesn’t mean they were giving up on the season.”
False!
“Your argument is just, hey, they traded a good player, so they’re giving up.”
Teams. That. Are. Trying. To. Win. Don’t. Trade. Good. MLB. Players. Ever.
“Tanked? You’re not that dumb.”
What was their record in September?
“They finished 2 games back of Texas AND Houston.”
And missed the playoffs like every other team that traded their closer at the deadline.
“And they only traded one good player – for depth they desperately needed.”
And completely ruined the whole dynamic of their bullpen.
“You know that’s not tanking.”
I don’t know that that’s a thing that I know.
“Disagree with the strategy if you want, but calling this “tanking” is just a pathetic attempt at trolling.”
Most people disagree with trading a player who is helping your MLB team at the deadline when you are still in the race. Are they trolling too?
It didn’t work. But again, that doesn’t mean they were a seller. You can crap on their ill-conceived plans and horrible execution all you want. That’s fine by me because they needed to replace Sewald in another trade. For some reason they thought downgrading the pen and upgrading the offense was an effective solution to their .500 record. My only issue here is the inaccurate portrayal of them as a “seller,” which really I dont care about, you’ve just been annoying about it, acting like you know better than fans of the team, so I was willing to argue it.
Dipoto said Teo wasn’t traded at the deadline because they weren’t throwing in the towel and he thought Teo gave them a chance to win. Sewald was traded because the clock was ticking on him and, again, the M’s like to churn value. Rojas obviously was supposed to be half of the solution to 2B, and honestly, he played quite well as an M (.272/.321/.400, 103 OPS+, 0.8 bWAR in 46 G). Canzone was supposed to replace Kelenic. This trade never happens if Kelenic doesn’t kick a water cooler and Wong works out.
I think you need to spend more time worrying about your own team’s crappy roster management. When the Padres trade off a bunch of salary this offseason, it must be them setting up to tank for 2024, huh? lmfao
“Dipoto said Teo wasn’t traded at the deadline because they weren’t throwing in the towel and he thought Teo gave them a chance to win.”
Is the same not also true of Paul Sewald? Why did they trade him then?
“Sewald was traded because the clock was ticking on him and, again, the M’s like to churn value.”
Is the same not also true of Teoscar Hernandez? Why wasn’t he traded then?
Teams that sit on the fence always end up getting the worst of both worlds, not the best.
Oh and as for the Padres… Yes, trading Soto does = tanking for 2024.
You’re terrible at this. “Lmfao” is a compelling argument, sure. But “I don’t know that that’s a thing that I know”, “As do informed fans” and “most people disagree” – these are just meaningless nonsense.
I know that you’re capable of understanding that upgrading from Wong and Pollock, etc helped the team this year. And I’m certain that you know that trading one reliever is not tanking. I’m not sure why you NEED it to be tanking, but that’s your thing. Multiple people have tried to explain the complexities of the whole thing, but you just stomp your feet and yell “tank” like you’re making some point. To each their own I guess.
Just saying “people agree” with you or “informed fans think” doesn’t make it so. That’s how children argue. Do better.
“And completely ruined the whole dynamic of their bullpen.” Prove this- I know you won’t because you can’t.
@BobbyAyala93…
“I know that you’re capable of understanding that upgrading from Wong and Pollock, etc helped the team this year.”
I’ll give you Rojas but Dominic Canzone wasn’t an upgrade at all. He sucked. He might be better in the future but he did not help the M’s this year.
“And I’m certain that you know that trading one reliever is not tanking.”
If trading your best reliever for a guy who was below replacement level up to that point in the season and 2 prospects wasn’t tanking, what was it? Do legit contenders do that?
“I’m not sure why you NEED it to be tanking, but that’s your thing.”
I don’t NEED anything. It’s just the cold cold reality that you refuse to face.
“Multiple people have tried to explain the complexities of the whole thing…”
Those “multiple people” are straight up wrong. Opinions of people who have no idea what they are talking about don’t matter.
“Just saying ‘people agree’ with you or ‘informed fans think’ doesn’t make it so. That’s how children argue. Do better.”
You’re right. It doesn’t make it so. It already was so before I said it.
“‘“And completely ruined the whole dynamic of their bullpen.’ Prove this- I know you won’t because you can’t.”
All the blown leads late in the game after Paul was traded speak for themselves.
I’m not sure why you feel the need to defend Jerry DiPoto like he’s your first born child but trading Sewald did not help them in 2023.
Canzone wasn’t an upgrade over Pollack? Explain your logic there. “It doesn’t make it so. It already was…..” This is pathetic nonsense. If you believe that “informed fans” agree with you, offer some proof or don’t bother spewing meaningless word salad. You cant prove it, obviously. As for what seems to be your main point, that they “ruined the dynamic of their bullpen”, whatever that means, and “All the blown leads”
Seattle pen, pre Sewald trade: 18-18, 3.63 ERA, 26 saves, 13 blown saves.
post Sewald trade: 15-10, 3.22 ERA, 18 saves, 6 blown saves. I mean, you said their pen fell apart after the trade. You clearly have no idea what your talking about. Obviously you don’t follow this team closely. Again, if your going to troll at least make an effort. This is weak and your not good at it.
@BobbyAyala93 Canzone was below replacement level for the Mariners. So maybe a marginal upgrade over Pollack but in theory their best AAA outfielder would have been even better. Certainly not worth trading their best reliever over.
“This is pathetic nonsense.”
What it is is the truth.
“If you believe that ‘informed fans’ agree with you, offer some proof or don’t bother spewing meaningless word salad.”
See the aforementioned quote from Cal Raleigh, ya know, the guy who actually plays for the Seattle Mariners baseball team.
Of course the Mariners had more blown saves before the Sewald trade. That part of the season was twice as long. There were several games in a row in the last week when they just couldn’t nail down the win. And they have the Sewald trade to thank for that.
In the end, no matter how you cut it, slice it or dice it, the Mariners missed the playoffs. And they will continue to miss the playoffs if they continue to sell off core pieces at the deadline. You don’t do that when you are trying to contend. Ever.
Wrong you’re* btdubs.
So far you’ve conceded you were wrong on Rojas. And wrong about Canzone not being an upgrade. And obviously pre deadline is a larger portion of the season than post deadline, what is the purpose of mentioning that? You know how percentages work, right? 66% conversion rate pre trade, 75% post. Also, “Wrong your* btdubs.” This is what you’re resorting to? Grammar policing? Lol. Try harder
I was right on the money about the Sewald trade being a selling/rebuilding trade. And more to the point, if they were going to sell/rebuild they should have trades Teo. And now thay they missed the playoffs entirely and didn’t QO Teo they definitely should have traded him. At the deadline, you pick a lane and every move you make needs to be in that lane.
That’s what I thought. No proof of anything, just uninformed opinions.
When is the last time a team traded a core player at the deadline and made the World Series that year? Christ, when’s the last time a team traded a core player at the deadline and made the LCS that year?
When was the last time a “tanking” team finished 2 games back of the World Series champion? There are zero moves that guarantee a World Series. Look at the Angels. Tied for second in the division at the deadline – they “picked a lane” and it blew up. Arizona trades for Sewald, who was awesome for them down the stretch but then posts a 27.00 ERA with a blown save in the World Series. You act like Sewald is Mo Rivera. Munoz and Brash are certainly in his league, just look at the stats. Plus 3 more guys with ERA’s under 3 (Thornton, Topa & Campbell). Then 2 more guys under 4 (Saucedo, Speier). Meanwhile, they’re running Wong and Pollack out there with 34 & 53 OPS+. So they trade one of their 8(!) stud relievers for offense. They get better this year, add some prospect capital, and avoid an Angelsesque mortgaging of their future. You don’t have to like the moves, or agree with them. But saying that is “tanking” is just absurd. You know what tanking is. Baltimore a few years ago. Astros before their run. White Sox this year.
When is the last time a team traded a core player at the deadline and made the LCS that year?
And why didn’t the Padres, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies and Rangers trade Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, Kenley Jansen, Clay Holmes, Craig Kimbrel and Will Smith, respectively, at the trade deadline?
It’s totally reasonable to say you don’t like the move, or you shouldn’t trade your closer if you’re contending. Fine. I happen to think it’s a little more nuanced than that, but I understand the logic. But saying they were tanking or punting or giving up is just wrong. And I think you understand all of that.
It is giving up. The track record of other teams that have traded a core player at the deadline says it all.
Impressive to “give up” and still go into the last week of the season with a chance to take the division, then finish 2 games back of Rangers and Astros. I bet a lot of fans wish their team would give up like that.
And I bet Mariners fans wish they’d have kept Sewald so they could have picked up that last Wild Card and faced the Twins who didn’t win a postseason game for 18 straight seasons before this one.
Keeping Sewald doesn’t guarantee they get the wild card. Just like trading for him didn’t net a championship. Im not sure why you believe that. Their bullpen was fine. Rangers and Astros were just better this year.
How good do you think Sewald is anyways? I mean he’s solid, but he’s not elite. You’re acting like he’s an irreplaceable hall of famer or something. You said “There were several games in a row in the last week when they just couldn’t nail down the win.” By that logic, do you think trading for him was a mistake cause he got shelled in the World Series?
“Keeping Sewald doesn’t guarantee they get the wild card.”
But it does make it more likely.
“Just like trading for him didn’t net a championship.”
It netted a pennant for a team who no one expected to make it past the NLDS.
“Their bullpen was fine.”
But would have been better with Sewald.
“How good do you think Sewald is anyways?”
Not elite but was the Mariners’ best reliever in 2023.
“You’re acting like he’s an irreplaceable hall of famer or something.”
Maybe not a Hall of Famer but he doesn’t have to be one to make a team better.
“By that logic, do you think trading for him was a mistake cause he got shelled in the World Series?”
Without him the Diamondbacks don’t make it to the WS. So no.
Prove that it makes it more likely. You can’t. Just repeating it doesn’t make it true. Your just throwing out uninformed opinions with nothing to back them up.
And hey, maybe you’re right about that – maybe keeping Sewald does make it more likely that they make the playoffs. I’m not certain either way – but you’re just trying to change the debate: you said they were tanking, punting, and giving up. Now you’re just saying that it hurt their chances of making the post season. 2 different arguments. Which is it? They were not “tanking”
I’ve said all along it’s reasonable to disagree with the trade – I think characterizing what they did as “giving up” is laughable though, and I think your last post basically concedes that. Cool
“Prove that it makes it more likely.”
Res ipsa loquitur! If it didn’t make it more likely why did the Diamondbacks even make that trade?
“Just repeating it doesn’t make it true.”
It already was.
“Your just throwing out uninformed opinions with nothing to back them up.”
Go look in a mirror son.
“… you said they were tanking, punting, and giving up.”
Because they were. Never has a team traded someone equivalent to Paul Sewald at the deadline and made it even as far as LCS that season. The fact that you keep ignoring that says it all.
“Now you’re just saying that it hurt their chances of making the post season. 2 different arguments. Which is it? They were not “tanking””
If it wasn’t a tanking/rebuildng/win later trade, what was it? What we already KNOW it wasn’t was a “win now” trade.
“I think characterizing what they did as “giving up” is laughable though, and I think your last post basically concedes that. Cool”
I disagree with that assessment and I have already explained why at least a dozen times. We saw what happened with the Brewers last year when they traded Josh Hader and the Guardians when they constantly trade proven starters at the deadline despite ostensibly trying to contend. Notice how every one of those teams’ last WS appearance was before either of us were alive, if ever. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
“ Go look in a mirror son.” I supported my argument with stats. You’re incapable of offering actual statistical evidence for any of your assertions, so you just throw out unsupported opinions. You can’t prove that “it already was true” so you just repeat it? Weak
Are you really backtracking again? Is it a taking/give up move or just a bad trade? You can’t call what they did giving up with a straight face. You’re not that dumb.
I’ll ask the question you keep dancing around again…
When is the last time a team traded a core player at the deadline and made the LCS that year?
Rally Goose,
Let’s point out why you should be permanently wearing a football helmet while mommy leaves you playing unattended in the other room…
“No it wasn’t lmfao. They traded their best reliever for 3 guys who weren’t expected to help in 2023.”
Paul Sewald: 0.9 fWAR for all of 2023; 80th ranked reliever in baseball.
Paul Sewald wasn’t even the best reliever on the Dbacks! MLB rank in ( )
Kevin Ginkel was worth 1.3 fWAR (23rd – tied)
He really wasn’t the best reliever on the Mariners! MLB rank in ( )
Matt Brash was worth 2.1 fWAR (4th)
Andres Munoz was worth 1.3 fWAR (23rd – tied) – Missing two months
Justin Topa was worth 1.1 fWAR (41st – tied)
Honorable Mentions
Gabe Speier was worth 0.6 fWAR
Trevor Gott was worth 0.6 fWAR (traded him to Mets to dump Flexen)
Isaiah Campbell was worth 0.3 fWAR (pitched less than 1/2 a season)
———————————————————————————————-——-—-
“By opening another hole on the roster.”
You nailed it! Trading our 4th best reliever and missing out on his 5.07 FIP down the stretch really submarined our whole season! Despite the fact that our 5th and 6th best relievers were nearly as good as Sewald when comparing the per innings results, while our 7th best reliever was in the top 30 relievers in baseball against LH hitters with a .232 wOBA, and a .516 OPS against, which tied him at 30th with Gabe Speier who also posted a .232 wOBA, and a .535 OPS against him. What’s even more interesting is Isaiah Campbell was even better against LH batters (22nd – .215 wOBA and a .483 OPS against) despite pitching right-handed. That’s far from a horrible bullpen!
———————————————————————————————-——-—-
“Teams. That. Are. Trying. To. Win. Don’t. Trade. Good. MLB. Players. Ever.”
You mean like the Rays trading Diego Castillo to the Mariners on the day they were 3.5 games up in the wild card with a 61-42 record, the same year they won 100 games?! Weird, that sounds like giving up on the season based on what you believe.
Man to think how they would’ve done had they not traded their 4TH BEST RELIEVER (same thing the Mariners did), At the time of the trade, Diego Castillo had a 2.72 ERA with a 2.84 xFIP when they traded him to the Mariners, he then had a 2.86 ERA and a 3.67 xFIP. They could’ve won 101 games instead!!
———————————————————————————————-——-—-
“They finished 2 games back of Texas AND Houston.” – BobbyAyala93
“And missed the playoffs like every other team that traded their closer at the deadline”. – Rally Goose
They actually missed the playoffs by one game, had they beat the Astros one more time, the Astros would’ve missed the playoffs. However, without that trade the Mariners wouldn’t have had Josh Rojas put up 2.2 fWAR down the stretch which is worth a lot more than the -0.1 fWAR that the Dbacks got from Sewald or the 0.9 fWAR that he was worth for the whole season. If you can trade a reliever for a starting position player, you always do it, especially when the Mariners are crapping good relievers. Their bullpen was so deep, it wasn’t even worth bringing back Diego Castillo or any of the other successful bullpen arms (Adcock & Berroa) that would’ve been in the majors on 20 of the other teams bullpens based on ability and results.
———————————————————————————————-——-—-
“Most people disagree with trading a player who is helping your MLB team at the deadline when you are still in the race. Are they trolling too?”
Strawman logic at it’s finest and just a dumb comment in general.
One, you are basing your argument on a series of assumptions (poor ones based on my findings above).
Two, by your logic it’s better to run out a team with two giant holes in the lineup rather than improve those spots while dealing from a source of depth.
Third, due to the desire to make every team feel like a winner through expanded playoffs, nobody wants to deal for prospects during the season.
More importantly, the Mariners would be getting 20 cents on the dollar for Cole Young or Harry Ford back then, if they could’ve found a trade partner, which would be even more dumb than dealing your older, more expensive reliever.
Had the Mariners not traded Sewald, they would’ve kept Campbell down in the minors and he was actually one of our most effect relievers against the Astros and Rangers down the stretch.
The bullpen locks are Brash, Munoz, Topa, Speier, Saucedo, and Thornton due to match ups against LH batters, overall quality of stuff, or lacking options like Thornton (2.08 ERA in SEA & 2.01 ERA overall in 2023).
So what is worth more to the Mariners season, a better 2B or a declining reliever?!
Josh Rojas 2.2 fWAR >>>> Kolten Wong -1.5 fWAR
Paul Sewald -0.2 fWAR <<<< Isaiah Campbell 0.3 fWAR
Not including Canzone and Bliss both being young and filled with potential, the Mariners added almost 4.5 fWAR, just by swapping Sewald for Rojas, DFAing Wong, and giving Campbell a regular role in the bullpen over Sewald.
———————————————————————————————-——-—-
Really there is nothing you could say that would be logical or coherent in terms of winning this argument! The team had depth traded from depth, replaced him with a better pitcher, filled a hole in their lineup, and the team kept winning after Sewald was gone, even winning more… At the time of the deal the Mariners had a .519 record (55-51) with Sewald, after trading him they had a .589 record (33-23). How can you possibly say the trade made them worse?! The answer is you can't. Period.
Well said, although I’m sure it will all be lost on him – Goose is a sub replacement level troll.
Stop feeding this guy. He s an asinine troll who won’t stop. Save your time. He’s clearly pissed his team can’t win even when it spends boat loads of money and has a roster full of stars.
You found the closer who was traded during a postseason run! I’m ready to hear the lame excuse.
What happened to the Rays in the ALDS that year?
And can I borrow your crystal ball since you clearly knew that Josh Rojas would stop being a below replacement level player after the Mariners traded for him?
“How can you possibly say the trade made them worse?! The answer is you can’t. Period.”
I believe I just did.
Because you guys keep dancing around the question, I will ask it again.
When is the last time a team traded a core player at the deadline and made the LCS that year? And why is it that none of the other 2023 contenders (or even teams that thought they were contenders but weren’t like the Padres) traded their closer at the deadline? Trading a reliever while he still has value is more important than winning a championship so those teams HAD to trade those guys, right?
When was the last time a team that was “tanking” and “giving up” finished 2 games behind the 2 LCS participants? You do this each time goose – you can’t refute a single point that was made, so you pretend you can reduce the argument down to your little pet question- so how about mine? How does a “tanking” team hang with Rangers and Astros?
@BobbyAyala93 If you answer my question, I’ll be happy to answer yours.
Seeing as the only answer to my question invalidates your question, I won’t hold my breath.
Your question is nonsense. It should be when was the last time a team traded one of their top 8 bullpen arms and went on a run. Or changed closers mid season, etc. You know they weren’t ‘tanking’ or ‘giving up’ you’re not that stupid. You haven’t answered a single question with anything at all to back it up. You said their bullpen fell apart after the trade. That statement alone destroys your credibility- show the stats to back that up. You said it
Time for you to go, Mr. Dipoto.
Why, because he didn’t offer over $20M to a declining power hitter with no plate discipline and horrendous defense?
The number of middle-of-the-order bats, who are available in free agency this offseason are in the single digits. Because of that, even his mild season would probably net him a chance at $70-80M+ over 4-5 years, which is probably better than what he would get taking the 1 year deal for $20M, and then re-entering free agency next offseason, where he’d have to beat $50-60M over 3-4 years, which is roughly a $15-17M/season deal, all while entering his 32 y,o, season.
Considering he has a family, I’m not sure he’d want to stay in Seattle, even for the extra couple million dollars, just to be traded at the deadline or knowing he’d have to uproot his family in another year. He already was half out the door this last year, so it would be two straight seasons knowing he couldn’t really unpack his belongings and get comfortable in a home with so much uncertainty. As a father, that matters much more than a couple million.
Dipoto passed on a chance to get a slam dunk no from Teoscar, which would’ve helped offset the prospect lost signing a QO free agent like Ohtani, Bellinger, or Snell. There’s literally no way a guy like Teoscar in a thin free agent market for hitters decides to take a one-year deal and re-enter next year, especially considering he would have to build his value with 81 of his games being played at T-Mobile Park.
There is no world where Teoscar Hernandez is getting $80MM this off-season.
JD Martinez, Justin Turner, Hoskins, Soler, etc. are all out there. Ohtani is going to be someone’s DH also. Gurriel is on the market for a team wanting a LF/DH type too. Think it’s highly likely he would’ve accepted.
BrianStrowman9,
Your argument against him getting paid $70-80M is 5 free agents?! You do realize the QO also indicates a tendency for players to make more and more money. A $25M/2 years deal from five years ago is a $50M/3 year deal now. Did you see what Haniger made last offseason, as essentially the same type of player with more competition in free agency, and coming off an injury riddled offseason. Here’s the guys who made over $50M last offseason in free agency:
Aaron Judge $360M
Trea Turner $300M
Xander Bogaerts $280M
Carlos Correa $200M
Jacob DeGrom $185M
Dansby Swanson $177M
Brandon Nimmo $162M
Edwin Diaz $102M
Willson Contreras $87.5M
Justin Verlander $86.7M
Kodai Senga $75M
Jameson Taillon $68M
Chris Bassitt $63M
Jose Abreu $58.5M
Then add in the guys who made $15M+ on multi-year short-term deals…
Mitch Haniger $14.5M x 3 years
Anthony Rizzo $20M x 2 years
Michael Conforto $18M x 2 years
Josh Bell $16.5M x 2 years
Kenley Jansen $16M x 2 years
Most people forget the goal for free agency is multi-year deal over annual amount, sure $20M sounds great for a season, but if we are debating if he’s worth that for one season, he’s probably not worth a $16M+ average for years two and beyond. So leveraging that QO offer to show he’s at least in the range of $20M, gets him a $15-18M average, which is more or less the same as $20M for year one and $13-15M for years two and beyond.
To really drive home my point. Let’s say he takes the $20M and next year he can’t do better than $36M over 3 years, it’d be the same as $56M over 4 years this offseason, without worrying about the trade deadline or going back into free agency in a year. The point is players taking the QO rarely pays off unless you’re getting less than 1/2 that amount per season in free agency. Look at Tyler Anderson who turned down $19.65M to get a $39M/3 year deal. I mean Anderson didn’t even accept with a chance to pitch in L.A. for the Dodgers in a pitchers park. There’s really no way you can argue against what I’m saying when Anderson is the poster child for Teo’s low-side value in free agency.
I’m also in the camp that he won’t get $70-80M. He’s essentially a slightly above league average bat at this point with few other redeeming qualities. He had a 13th percentile chase rate, 3rd percentile whiff rate, 9th percentile K rate, and 13th percentile BB rate; his terrible routes countered his decent range; he makes a plethora of defensive miscues; he was 2nd percentile for baserunning value and is hardly a SB threat despite being in the 82nd percentile for sprint speed; his speed is essentially useless considering he doesn’t use it anywhere it can be a factor (defense, baserunning, stolen bases), etc.
I know it only takes one team, but I would bet strongly against him getting $80M. I think he’s more in line for something like 3/$48M. I don’t think it was a slam dunk for him to reject the QO.
@Thank_God I like the way you think…could you surreptitiously slip me your Top 50 Free Agent Pick Destination list so I can copy your answers for the contest ?? He he.
It absolutely wasn’t a slam-dunk. He was worth 1.8 fWAR and projected well below that over the next 3 years. With the QO attached, his contract would likely have been limited, regardless of how limited the FA class is.
There was good reason to believe he would take the single, big pay-day, hope to rebound from a season in which he set the bar low, and try to do better a year from now.
And had he been made the offer, accepted, how would that have helped Seattle improve upon a disappointing 2023 in which Ks were one of their biggest issues?
Even if Teo rebounds, the Ks are part of his game. Seattle got away from the very thing they preached from the beginning of the Dipoto-era: Controlling the zone.
‘No plate discipline’ might even be generous lol. This is anecdotal but I’m pretty sure I can count on one hand how many AB he took in the first half where he saw more than 3 pitches. He would’ve accepted that QO for sure.
No, he wouldn’t because he absolutely hated the deadline and worrying about being traded and would never sign up for going through that again intentionally.
1. There are no guarantees in baseball.
2. What makes you think he couldn’t be traded at the deadline after signing with a new team? Do you think he’s going to command a no-trade clause?
That would be surprising.
By the way, the site we’re chatting on predicts Teo to get $80M/4 years, which is about what I said, I think they’re a little high, but I was expecting a Qualifying Offer that never happened, which is worth to most of the teams that’ll be in on him (Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.) a third or fourth round pick that has about $5M in value at most.
They also mentioned that pick (the total money to Teo, not the destinations) being the one they were most varied on, and all seemed to agree they could see it coming in WAY lower. That also seemed to be the one most readers disagreed with them about.
I know it only takes one team to jack up the price, but to bet on that if you are Teoscar is risky. If he were coming off a better platform season, I’m sure the QO would have been offered.
Stupid
If he rejected it we would have gotten a first round draft pick. I think he would have rejected it in favor of a multi-year contract
I think Teo is much closer to a 2/25MM guy. I couldn’t see him turning down $20.5MM for a single year.
Bat first DH types don’t get paid very well. Especially coming off that kind of year.
Totally undervaluing Teoscar on the free agent market. The better hitters on the market are Ohtani, Bellinger, Chapman, Candelario, Soler, Turner, and Martinez. Maybe you could squint and say Kiermaier or Pederson, but both are platoon bats. If you don’t want to pay $20M+/season, you’re down to Turner and Martinez, both of which are in the sunset of their careers. Add into this the positional requirement, neither Turner not Martinez can play regularly in the outfield. Kiermaier can field, but I wouldn’t bet on him to repeat his offensive season, while Pederson is horrible with the glove and should really be a DH only option, if it weren’t for his platoon splits and both are left-handed hitters. When you start sorting the options, he’s the only middle-of-the-order, right-handed hitting, solid defender with above-average speed and arm to sign in free agency. For the right team like, Toronto, Boston, Baltimore, Miami, or an up-and-coming team like the Nationals could be in on Teo). He seems to play better on the east coast. The central doesn’t have the money, and there’s not a lot of good fits for a corner outfielder in the AL or NL West, outside maybe the Dodgers.
I think Teo is a $2/25 guy.
Might be a team who thinks this season was an outlier and he’s closer to a $50MM guy. Would surprise me but it only takes 1 (Colorado Rockies come to mind) to do it.
I think you’re catching the falling knife with a guy who is getting older and the bat is slowing down. There’s a small margin of error with his K rate now. That gets closer to 35% and you’re looking at Patrick Wisdom 2.0.
I don’t disagree with you about anything you said, but realize the Angels wanting to build a team with no prospects to trade and willingly overpaying guys is one example of a team he could get a $60M/4 year deal or more.
MLBTR has him at $80M/4 years and a Q.O. is worth only a few million. Clearly you’re comparing against controllable players, not watching the free agent market.
We are also neglecting the argument that a players gets paid what the market will bear, not what he’s “worth” and even then you could argue he’s worth 1.8 x $9M which is 16.2M, it’s also worth considering that away from T-Mobile Park he had a .830 OPS.
He would have had to sign for over $50m to get that 1st rd pick. With the QO attached, I’m not sure someone would have done that. I’m not sure even without the QO he can get $50m.
100%
I’d be shocked if he sniffs $50. I’m thinking he maxes out at $30-35 if someone is willing to give him 3 years.
“I’d be shocked”…Fat toad Avisail Garcia got 50 M+ a few yrs back, so anything is possible.
Terrible deal but he was younger and coming off a stronger platform season. There’s a lot of DH types on the market this off-season. I don’t think he comes close to 50. 3/35 is the absolute max I’d see. I wouldn’t give him that with the way he swings and misses. Think that it could get very ugly very soon.
Then tell me how he doesn’t get more than Haniger coming off injury, when he got $43.5M/3 years or crappy Tyler Anderson getting $39M/3 years?!
Following a bunch of up and down years. Teo was far more consistent during his control years.
Stronger platform season?! He had a 108 OPS+ and had one All-Star game appearance in 2017 and none of the Silver Sluggers (x2) that Teo has been given.
The market just paid Scherzer and Verlander $120+ over three years for their late-30s and early-40s seasons. I don’t care how well you take care of yourself, there’s no way they earn 1/2 that contract at their ages. How about DeGrom’s deal which we all knew was going to be garbage, but they still have him $185M over 5 years and now he won’t pitch until 2025 at the soonest. Making it essentially a $185/3 year deal because they were too stupid to load a cheap option should his arm fall off, like it did!. Examples of said option can be found in the 7-year Felix deal and the recent Luis Castillo deal with the Mariners.
His fWAR this season was in line with his contract value.
Steamer has him pegged for 1.4 in 2024. Obviously projections aren’t a perfect science, but every team has their own formula and make offers according to what they believe the player will offer.
The likeliness of him projecting higher than that in 2025 and beyond is slim. But let’s say he projects at 1.4 each year through 2026.
At 9m per win, that’s a contract in the 12.6m AAV range. On a 3-year deal, that’s 37.8m.
And again, that’s not accounting for any further decline.
He might do a little better than that, teams surprise us all the time. But it’s really hard to see an elite team viewing him as a must-have bat and overpaying because of enormous demand.
I’m fine with this. There was a lot of risk he would have accepted based on his decline.
He doesn’t seem like a $20M player. More like a $9M-$10M player.
Based on what?! He was worth 2 WAR, which is worth $16-18M/year in free agency.
People say that, but it’s not generally reflected in the contracts that players actually get. It’s a made-up rate.
Yeah, players get even more stupid contracts than I’m suggesting. Go look at the Bogaerts deal where he was coming off basically the same season and ended up getting a $280M deal.
By your formula, Bogaerts is underpaid.
Imagine him replacing Soler in Miami and hitting 40 bombs in 2024.
Hope they’re saving up so they can sign a DH to a 13 year deal.
Bring back Nelson? 56 will be the new 43 in 13 years.
God, I’m old!
I see some upset fans in here but I’m glad they didn’t extend it. A good trade to get him but it really didn’t work out. Pretty small chance he would reject QO to rebuild his value. JD needs to clear payroll of the wasted dollars to make a serious offer to Shohei. I’d rather roll the dice on Canzone than get stuck paying $20M to Teo.
It’s not a binary decision. There’s other outcomes besides offer and he accepts, don’t offer and he walks. They could be planning to bring him back at $14M x 4 years, they could’ve offered the QO and he signs that deal with another team. It’s never so literal and people keep thinking he has to match that annual value, but he just needs to get within $6-8M of his annual QO value because an extra year absorbs the extra money from a one year deal and a shorter multi-year deal next offseason.
Next year he signs a $20M QO + 13M x 4 year deal and that’s equal to $14.2M x 5 years.
I see what you are saying here. I agree these aren’t binary decisions. We shall see I suppose. I’m no expert just another tortured M’s fan lol
Wow! Teo has virtually said he isn’t resigning in Seattle! Why not get the draft pick compensation? Very odd.
Should have extended it. The market is weak for hitters, he’ll get a multi year deal with more guaranteed money. If he accepts, so be it. One year with a guy we know will be decent yet not spectacular.
Regardless of the $20m, Mariners could not afford to have Teo in the lineup for another year. By all accounts and my own two eyes, Teo is a great guy and a great teammate. But a great guy with terrible plate habits was influencing Julio in terrible ways. Too many times last year I would watch the RHP throw the exact same sequence to Julio and Teo, easily fooling them as though the strategy was novel. We seem to forget that AA/early ROY Julio had excellent plate discipline. I love Julio and he is the face of our franchise, but he needs to be surrounded by plate discipline guys or he’ll drift into poor habits. Nip it in the bud ASAP.
How about trading him if he accepts the QO?! There’s no rule against that and the acquiring team could give a lottery ticket prospect and try to sign him to a long-term deal after acquiring him. Just because he accepts the QO offer, doesn’t mean the offering team can’t trade him an the team controlling his QO offer can’t extend him. If he accepts, it just means that he can’t sign with anyone else. There would still be more time to figure out what to do with him, while he would at least give them a worst case scenario. Plus, they could’ve told him that if he accepted, he would be platooned or traded with no control over his destination. A team like the Rockies would overpay for him on a QO because otherwise nobody would want to sign with their garbage organization. Marlins say hi for the same reason.
Only Seven players in the MLB got QOs and yet keyboard GMs on this page act like it’s common knowledge to offer a guy a QO. LOL. If this was such a great strategy, we would see it more often. But we don’t.
Folks who act like it’s a good process to offer 1yr/20m to a guy you don’t want in your team are dumb. We can’t afford a 5% BB rate from an Offensive only, middle of the order guy.
Now that Teo does not have a draft pick attached to him, he’ll probably clear the $50m threshold. Doesn’t mean the Ms threw away a draft pick.
Now if you think we should have traded him last July, let’s just make sure we also liked the Sewald trade…;)
When the guy has won multiple silver slugger awards and gone to an All-Star during the same era as Trout, Judge, Tucker, Julio, Arozarena, Mullins, Robert, Adolis, Springer, Gallo, Stanton, Betts, and Haniger?! Those are just the AL OF who have seen the All-Star game during his MLB career.
Teo has two more Silver Sluggers than Haniger, Arozarena, & Stanton (since Teo became a regular in 2018), but only one more Silver Slugger than Mullins & Robert, while all five have made one All-Star game appearance over the last six seasons (5 All-Star games).
Gallo & Adolis both have one more All-Star game, but no Silver Sluggers to their names.
Betts before going to the NL won two Silver Slugger awards in his last two seasons in Boston, while also going to both All-Star games.
Stanton has the same number of Silver Sluggers since 2018, when Teo became a full-time player, but has gone to 4 All-Star games compared to just the one for Hernandez.
Trout, Betts, and Judge are clearly the best players on this list, but these are all top performers most years and still Teo’s resume stands shoulder to shoulder with many of them.
My point is Teo’s track record is a lot better than most of the guys who didn’t get a Qualifying Offer!!
No, he couldn’t be traded until mid-June without his permission. It’s a new contract. It’s just like signing a free agent.
I’m glad he won’t be back. 211 strikeouts is ridiculous. Basically just as bad as Eugenio Suarez, who struck out 214 times. Seattle had the #2 and #3 strikeout guys in MLB… in the same lineup! Add that to Ty France’s 25 times GIDP, and that’s a lot of killed rallies. Maybe France can bounce back from his .703 OPS year, but here’s hoping they can add guys with better plate discipline to the lineup, especially at RF and 3B. It shouldn’t be difficult. Better power from 1B would be nice, too.
UNBELIEVABLE. All four of J. Dipito’s bats that he brought in to take the M’s to the next step and go further in the playoffs are now not on the M’s roster. You failed Misérabley Jerry.. What really bothers me is that Ownership– John Stanton, chose not to spend the last two years of free agency when there was a plethora of free agent hitters on the market and now you probably have to trade your young, talented, financially controllable, pitchers to get the bats you need to get into the playoffs. Teoscar was not great for long stretches’ but you need BATS, 1 year $20 million? Make the offer. Show that you care enough to bring 3-4 bats in. If he says no, get the draft pick but Offer him. He was well liked in the clubhouse but I forgot that does not matter to ownership and management (please see Kendall Gravamen and Paul Sewald). You think you can get Ohtani? That would be wonderful but you will have incredible competition. You trade Gilbert or Kirby and you should be fired. Having to trade Woo and/or Miller and you guys have mismanaged this club. The club has made an incredible profit the last two years, you owe it to the city, fans, and players to put more of it into the team (please see Cal Raleigh). Just glad that management and ownership is making decisions with 54% of their pocket book and 54% of their brain.
Can someone point to the team that brought in 3-4 FA bats and won? Perhaps the 1997 marlins?
I’ve lived in Seattle for my whole life. Great place. Not exactly the hot bed of MLB culture. To Lib for the USA guys, to cold and boring for the Latin guys.
The players get to choose where they want to live!
What about the idea that T-Mobile Park suppresses offense as a factor in big bats not wanting to come here ? (see Teo’s splits for example.) I heard this is part of the reason why Ken Griffey wanted to be traded, he didn’t want anything to do with the new park. If it’s a “marine layer” thing, that sucks because nothing can really be done about it. If it’s a “move the fences in thing” that will hurt our pitchers. I hope this reputation our park has for killing offense doesn’t scare away Shohei.
Why are American ball players so conservative? Especially now that the “conservative” party is anti-democracy, it’s pretty disconcerting.
Why was (UCLA, Blazers) Walton such a freak?
American baseball players are conservative because they usually are raised in conservative parts of our diverse country.
As above, so below.
I disagree with the first 75% of your rant but totally agree w the last 25%. If he trades Gilbert or Kirby he should be fired. But I agree with what FIVE said too.. FA hitters gotta want to play here. We better hope Shohei does or this offseason is gonna be grim. Biggest obstacle to this team taking the WS is our turd ownership group tho, not JD or the weather.
This is a mistake. There was almost zero chance Teo would have accepted the QO. I feel like this is the Mariners once again underestimating the free agent market. Hernandez will get paid. There’s no doubt. I’m guessing at least 3 years, 60 mil.
I feel like this offseason is going to be extremely depressing for M’s fans. They aren’t going to spend much money and the only way the team will improve is if Dipoto gives up a lot of young talent in trades.
If they extended the offer, either he rejects it and they get a free pick, or he accepts it and they’re “stuck” paying retail for an average player, for one whole year. The latter scenario is apparently so terrifying that they’re willing to forego the free pick. True cheapskate loser behavior, not sure why we should expect any different at this point. Hope everyone is ready for an Opening Day lineup featuring Josh Rojas and Mike Ford.
Teo could not hit at T-Mobile. Not worth a QO – he’s in the Justin Smoak category of “big hitters that hit to the warning track or strike out a lot at home,” And that happens to a lot of good hitters (Adrian Beltre comes to mind).
What the scouting department doesn’t seem to do is get better data on hitters that do well in cold weather in the spring, otherwise half the lineup wouldn’t be hitting below .200 in May and the team wouldn’t always start the season 10 games back. The summer rallies are awesome, but totally unnecessary if there were a decent scouting department.
Now, it’s Ohtani or bust, and the odds aren’t good there, despite all the hopes (other site has him going for 12/$560M, which ends up relatively cheap ten years from now), but hey, at least we have Josh Rojas, right?
Is it OK for me to not give a “flying eff” about either Teoscar or Jerry?
I want an effing World Series appearance. Is all.
~ Grumpy McGrumperson
The Mariners don’t have the stones to sign Ohtani or any other big name (expensive) free agent. They operate as a business and winning is secondary to that.
to the Jays to bat clean up behind Vlad.
bring him back to h-town
Teo wasn’t good and neither was Wong or Winker but the overall process of talent gathering and the approach to FA’s is still correct. Dipoto couldn’t have predicted that they would all just regress into the ground and be anchors to the line up, no one could. I see a ton of M’s fans that are mad and I can’t help but laugh. M’s fans were clamoring for the likes of Kris Bryant or Trevor Story and look how they worked out. Point is that the mariners have been rebuilt from the ground up and you can assume with the pitching they have they will be on the cusp or in the playoffs for the next few years so just let Dipoto do his thing and chill.