The Red Sox are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation starting pitching. A pair of high-end starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, have come off the board. There wasn’t any indication the Sox were deeply involved in the bidding for either right-hander. Sean McAdam of MassLive writes that the Sox have been seeking to add a starter via trade before turning to free agency.
At the same time, one notable trade candidate doesn’t appear to be strongly on their radar. McAdam reports that the Red Sox have not been actively involved in discussions with the White Sox regarding Dylan Cease. The right-hander has been mentioned as a target for the Dodgers and Braves and has surely drawn unreported interest from other teams seeking rotation help.
That Boston doesn’t seem as involved in Cease discussions is a bit of a surprise. He still has two seasons of arbitration control; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary, a bargain price for a pitcher with his upside. Alongside Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow (the latter of whom seems unlikely to land within the AL East if the Rays trade him), Cease has been the subject of plenty of trade speculation.
The 27-year-old (28 next month) isn’t coming off a great season. Cease allowed 4.58 earned runs per nine, more than two runs above the 2.20 ERA he posted in 2022. A spike in hard contact and a slight dip in strikeout rate surely contributed to that less inspiring run prevention. Yet even with that downturn in whiffs, Cease still fanned an above-average 27.2% of batters faced behind an excellent 13.6% swinging strike percentage. His fastball averaged just under 96 MPH, while his slider remained a swing-and-miss offering.
While the Sox may be focused on trade targets aside from Cease, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his front office are surely keeping an eye on the top hurlers on the open market. They’ve been tied to NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and left-hander Jordan Montgomery. McAdam indicates the Sox also expressed some interest in Blake Snell when they met with the defending NL Cy Young winner’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during the GM Meetings.
Snell rode a laughably dominant second half to the second Cy Young of his career. He finished the year with an MLB-best 2.25 ERA across 180 innings. Snell led the majors with 99 walks but allowed only 5.8 hits per nine innings, the lowest mark for any qualified starter. That’s in large part thanks to a stellar 31.5% strikeout rate. MLBTR predicted Snell to land $200MM over seven seasons. He has also been linked to the Dodgers, Giants and incumbent Padres. McAdam suggests that Snell, a Seattle-area native, may prefer to sign with a West Coast team.
If that is indeed the case, that wouldn’t bode especially well for the Red Sox’s chances. The market’s other top southpaw, Montgomery, has a tie to the Northeast. While Montgomery is a South Carolina native, McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive note that he is spending the winter in Boston while his wife McKenzie begins a medical residency at a hospital in the area. It’s not clear if that’ll have any impact on his free agent preferences.
Yamamoto and Monty and you are probably a playoff team!
Not with Clueless Joe Jackson as the manager.
I don’t think he’s clueless. You don’t win in 2018 without Cora
A half-witted, three toed sloth could’ve managed that 2018 team to a championship. In fact, cora cost that team more wins due to his ineptitude.
@Above – said the yeti??!!
Pfft. Cora. a.k.a. Zelmo Cheaty.
Hey! I remember Zelmo Beaty! A small center–St. Louis?
He wasn’t very small.
It was a 93-win team in 2017. It was a 108-win team in 2018.
And we won a combined one playoff game in 2016 & 2017 (1-6), and we won 11 games in 2018 (11-3).
You are allowed to hate him and still admit he did a great job in 2018.
Zelmo Beaty!
=================
That was back when they really played basketball. Guys like Willis Reed, Wes Unseld, and Zelmo Beaty owned the paint.
i watched him as a child on the Utah Stars of the old ABA.
According to Wiki, he was 6’9, which was a little small for a center even back then (he had to go up against Willis Reed and Chamberlain, etc.).
And the hugely underrated Nate Thurmond. One of my all-time favorites
And Walt Bellamy
Wayne Embry and Walt Bellamy
Joe, or he brought his cheating skills to the Sox in 18.
And Lanier as well. Also, don’t forget Wilt was still playing. Cowans may have changed the game playing outside much of the time, letting Silas once they got h from Phoenix handle the boards.
After months of investigation, not a single incident of cheating was documented by MLB in their report about the 2018 Red Sox. People should read the report. It is still available on mlb.com.
Dave Cowens was listed at 6′ 9″. Played like 6′ 11″. Remember 90%of all rebounds are taken below the rim. It’s all about position.
All in the suit, it just means to many like me that they didn’t catch the cheaters. If Cora got away with it in 17, why wouldn’t you think he’d do it again in 18? The way JBJ hit against the Astros, the way the team dismantled the Yankees and the way Moreland who couldn’t walk then hit as a pinch hitter against the Dodgers infers to me that they likely knew what was coming. Im a Sox fan but I also am a fan and try to be objective.
Cowe s though was along with Jerry Lucas two who played outside of the lane for much of the time.
Ty .. they act like we were the Astros over here
I would admit if he did, but he didn’t.
He got us extra wins in 2021. Fell short but never should have made it that far and would not have without Cora
Dewey: I don’t think it’s fair to label someone a cheater without evidence of even one play being affected. If I called you a liar, I think you would demand I show where you lied. There is no evidence of the 2018 Red Sox benefiting from cheating. Maybe some evidence will come out some day. I don’t know why you are willing to believe something with no evidence behind it, about your favorite team no less. I find it hard to believe that Cora walked into a new organization and immediately set up an intricate cheating scheme.
Dewey: By the way, the Red Sox had a MLB monitor in their video replay room in the 2018 postseason (different than the regular season). Each team had the same in the postseason. I don’t see how there was any cheating in the postseason. MLB concluded no cheating in the postseason in their report.
Pitching Eovaldi in relief was not a normal thing to do. Frankly, I hated it at first sight. It was incredibly gutless but it helped us win that series. Cora’s decisions ultimately allowed Steve Pearce to peak at the right time. He got the most out of a mediocre player.
And he knew when to not put Kimbrel in, who was hurting us down the stretch.
He may have made some pretty rash and dumb decisions, but they paid off.
@deweybelongsinthehall If you believe in that logic, then surely 2013 was rigged too. So many guys had career years like Johnny Gomes and Uehara. Ortiz hit nearly .700 in the postseason.
I just feel like every die-hard fan thinks his manager is crap because they watch so closely, and they see all his warts. That said, from an outsiders perspective, as I’m not a Sox fan, I love Cora. I think he’s a solid manager. Again, admittedly, I don’t watch the games like you do. Maybe we all just need to stop and reflect on how it’s talent that wins or loses games.
coop- or in cora’s case it’s cheating that wins him games
@the coop…
You’re not wrong. I used to question Bob Melvin especially in extra innings, but (and this was in my early English ignorant phase as a fan) I learned to respect his decision to avoid a pyrrhic victory over 16 innings in early May.
Unfortunately it didn’t work out for San Diego last season….
rememberthecoop – One question. Did you ever play the game? If so, how do you feel about Cora being a main cog in the cheating scandals in two different organizations. Is that really as simple as calling the greatest cheating scandal in the history of baseball a wart?
As an outsider, you seem to have missed many, many of his faults besides his cheating. You missed the fact that he can’t handle his pitching staff. You missed the fact that he has no idea how to set a line-up. You missed the fact that he over plays his bench because he was a bench player for his career so the team loses many games they wouldn’t from the over playing of the bench.
You are right about talent deciding who wins and loses most of the time but the manager can lose a game much easier than they can win a game. Pulling a SP because he hits a speed bump and choosing the wrong reliever who allows all the inherited runners to score is Cora impacting a win and turning it into a loss. The 2018 won 108 games and Cora cost them at least 12 wins. That supports your argument that talent wins games not managers but it also points out how incredible the 2018 Red Sox were. With a different manager they might have won 120 or more games.
Cora is the worst manager I’ve ever observed on a daily basis during the last 60 years. He isn’t qualified to be a manager. He had no experience and he’s learned nothing in his time as manager because he’s still making the same mistakes over and over. Cora doesn’t deserve to be in baseball for what he did and he certainly doesn’t deserve to be the manager of a prestigious ball club like the Red Sox. I wouldn’t trust him as a little league manager he’s so bad at comprehending how the games is played since he seldom got off the bench during his long and ugly career as a player.
I know I sugar coated how truly bad Cora is but anyone who changes the outcome of up to 90 games in a season deeply offends former players.
The greatest cheating scandal in the history of the game? I’m guessing that you’ve never heard the story of the 1919 Black Sox or have seen the movie ‘Eight Men Out.’ Your hatred of Cora is blinding your judgment – you must walk on water never having done anything out of line in your life. Cora was completely wrong and out of line for the Astros debacle and he did his time with his suspension. Funny how none of the Astros players ever did time like Altuve and the rest. As far as your 60 years of watching and calling out Alex Cora as the “worst manager” you must not be familiar with Aaron Boone. He manages a team called the New York Yankees. The Red Sox do not win the 2018 World Series without Alex Cora at the helm period. There is no such thing as set ‘em and forget ‘em in Major League Baseball.
Cora is tangibly bad at managing a pitching staff. He most likely started sales injury run with his shenanigans in spring training of 2019. He also follows a poorly organized script for the bullpen and has zero feel for the game. This doesn’t even touch his favoritism for certain players that don’t deserve it. 2018 happened in spite of Cora, not because of him.
Don’t downplay the ’51 Giants. Stealing signs from center field.
While I agree some of his handling of the pitching staff is an area where Cora struggles, blaming him for the injuries Sale has experienced is total BS. Sale was already breaking down health wise in 2018, which is a big part of the reason the Sox traded with TB to get Eovaldi to bolster their rotation down the stretch that year. TJ surgery became a likely eventuality at that point for Sale. Cora didn’t cause that. And all the myriad of injuries Sale has had since the TJ surgery is just freak bad luck.
Spot on KingKen. Before Cora had anything to do with Sale, people were questioning his “unorthodox delivery”. When Red Sox traded for Sale (2016) the article talks about his elbow.
The first two comments at MLBTR “Red Sox trade for Sale” go like this:
“Oh Snap”
Followed by
“Every time I watch sale pitch I feel like his elbow is going to snap.”
mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/red-sox-to-acquire-chri…
coop – I totally understand how perceptions can be different between an insider who scrutinizes nearly every aspect of nearly every game, and a casual outside observer.
I think to understand how bad Cora is, you need to look at the following:
1) The disaster of 2019 when Cora took a 108-win World Champion team and turned them into a non-contender because of his awful approach to ST and the start of the regular season.
2) Cora’s repeated public insistence that first half games are not important, ignoring the fact they count just as much in the standings as August and September games.
3) Cora’s insistence in giving players excessive days off, regardless of the situation and the need for the player to be in the lineup.
4) Cora’s insistence in using his worst relievers in high leverage situations, even after they’ve failed numerous times in those situations.
5) Cora’s insistence in pulling starting pitchers way too early and using his best relievers far less than what they should be used.
6) Cora’s failure to motivate and engage his players enough to play hard and play with pride. He lost the clubhouse at the end of 2022 and end of 2023, that is painfully obvious.
I have plenty more I could list, but that’s a good starter for now.
I am wondering if Cora made bad pitching moves – maybe a lot of them – to point out how bad Bloom’s roster was. I also think 2019 was an organizational failure. The GM, coaching staff and players all went along with the spring training plan.
But now we have Andrew Bailey. We’ve shored up the pitching component. Now we need an infield defense and positioning coach that knows his s**t and we’ll fix half of Cora’s issues. The lineups will always be an issue with Cora.
Killer – In the 1919 World Series the outcome of 5 games was changed by the White Sox tanking. In the Houston cheating scandal up to 90 games were impacted by the cheating.
Your ignorance of the facts is blinding your judgment. 90 vs 5 seems like a resounding difference in the way the cheating impacted the results of the baseball season. In 1919 the WS result changed. In 2017, the standings changed significantly leading to playoff series that were impacted significantly and ultimately the world series was impacted.
Tell me again how the Astro cheating scandal wasn’t the greatest cheating of all time. Games impacted far exceeded any other cheating.
Cora DID NOT do a fair amount of time. 5 games got people banned for life and 90 games got Cora a 60 game suspension. You really don’t know the facts do you?
The players who were on the team should have all been suspended at least 50 games the following year because Shoeless Joe got banned for life for simply knowing the cheating was going on and not saying anything. It would have ruined the 2018 season for Houston but a clear message would have been sent. The message was so unclear that Cora cheated in Boston too. It doesn’t matter that the Players Association got all the witnesses to recant or refuse to testify, Cora was right in the middle of the second cheating scandal. Smaller impact in Boston but a two time offender should have banned him for life if not the first offense.
Cora sucks. He had nothing to do with the winning in 2018. They won despite having Cora as the manager. Do you know anything about baseball? Are you a CORA? Otherwise, nothing you say makes sense and NOTHING you say has any credibility. Watch ONE game and an astute baseball fan would see how much he sucks at his job.
KingKen – Did you ever play? Did you ever pitch? Did you ever spend time changing your mechanics as a pitcher? How many months of practice to retrain your muscle memory did it take to make sure your elbow didn’t pay the price for the mechanical change? Cora changed Sales’ mechanics mid season and 3 month later he needed TJ surgery. The evidence is right in front of you but if you don’t know much about pitching I can understand why you wouldn’t understand why the mid season change hurt the elbow.
The IL stints in 2018 were ordered by Cora in an attempt to have Sale avoid his late season dead arm that he traditionally experienced. The lay off itself destroyed his Cy Young season. There were no injuries, there was a fatigued shoulder which has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with TJ surgery.
All – He made the same errors during 2018 but the team was incredible. So many sits for Mookie when he didn’t need to got him a last inning at bat that won a game they would have lost thanks to Cora. So many pitching mistakes in 2018 almost cost them games but the top of the order always seemed to pull it out in the 8th or 9th inning.
The one thing we know about Cora is that he built a relationship with owners during DD’s reign and continued it under Bloom. If he lobbied directly to Henry about choices he was making then he put both DD and Bloom in compromised situations. Did DD agree to the two week delay or was that solely Cora’s call and backed by Henry? We’ll never know but DD has been around a long, long time and no other manager ever did it so my guess is Cora sprung it on him as part of his span of control as manager. Cora is such a weasel he may have gotten permission from Henry. Remember, DD was fired in an ugly way by Henry and Cora was apologized to by Henry when they fired him. Something was clearly established between Cora and Henry by 2019 and the fact that he got hired when he wasn’t qualified I think it’s safe to say there is something in the background behind the Cora/Henry relationship that pre-existed Cora’s original hiring.
Killer – Players got immunity in exchange for their testimony, otherwise Cora & management wouldn’t have gotten busted. No different than if you got busted for selling drugs, you’d take the immunity in exchange for testifying against your supplier.
I’m not a Yankee fan so I have no comment on how good Boone is.
As for 2018, sounds like you’re saying the Sox don’t win without Cora’s alleged cheating. I disagree, that 2018 team was absolutely loaded with stars who were having a typically good season. A blind monkey could have managed that team to a championship …. JD, Mookie, Sale, Price, Devers, Xander, Kimbrel, Eovaldi …. damn that was a great team Dombrowski put together.
Insane – For the longest time the Blue Jays had a centerfield cameraman relaying signs during home games.
Suit – As usual I agree with you 100%. Cora was known for making questionable bullpen moves out of spite.
If the Red Sox were to sign Ohtani, even as a DH Cora would give him rest days off.
The 2018 Team was stacked, but they still probably don’t win without Dombrowski getting Steve Pearce at the deadline. Cora is a terrible in game Manager, unable to maneuver around his “pre game” set plan for Bull Pen usage, and on top of that he lacks Integrity big time. You can’t heel the wound of the past years of mediocrity until you get rid of the infection completely…. and the infection is still lingering.
As far as I’m concerned, Andrew Bailey has not proven himself yet. I’m not ready to crown Breslow.
The only reason Steve Pearce was even a factor was Cora put him in at the right time. He wasn’t even a starter and he was the missing piece? You’re joking…
I get that he was a World Series MVP, but outside of 2018 he was pretty bad. Dombrowski got lucky, Cora gets the nod for kairos.
Cora the Explorer….. LMAO
Keep dreaming!
Shane Bieber seems like a prototypical eventual Red Sox player. I think that could very well happen.
I hear him and Kluber wear the same cologne. So he’s gonna have some of that Kluberstank on him.
Rays trade with a lot of teams. Red Sox might be a stretch as a division rival, but if the Sox pay a premium who thinks the Rays won’t take advantage?
Sox should pay for Glasnow because there’s a good chance they could get him for another 5 years in an extension too. Otherwise, they’ll end up overpaying for a Montgomery, not great if you ask me.
Pay a premium for a guy who spends more time on the IL than playing? No thanks, Sox need inning eaters.
Exactly. Pay a premium? A trade with Tampa is a Rays’ last resort should the Yankees not be a sucker and will involve Tampa paying the premium if they can’t find any other takers. Such is unlikely as some team will gamble in the short term but it won’t be Breslow.
So you would rather Red Sox pay prospects for the right to pay a 30 year old starter that pitched above 100 innings pitched twice in his career and never topped 125 innings pitched? Nevermind that the 30 year old has a $25 mil salary for next season. No guarantee for extension, but would you want to extend for reasons stated before?
Steel – Rays traded Eovaldi to the Red Sox so they are not adverse to intra-division trades.
With that said, health is arguably the most important consideration in whether or not to acquire a SP. I’d rather buy one than trade good prospects for them.
Rays traded Eovaldi to the Red Sox
=========================
And Eovaldi was only ours for 2 months. BB fans have to get out of the mindset that all trade acquisitions need to be extended. They don’t. Simply pay a fair price for one year of service, and hopefully get a draft pick out of it.
And fans need to consider the duration of a contract when considering an acquisition. If I sign a guy for 6-7 years, I want to look backwards for 6-7 years of good health. If I acquire a guy for one year, I am generally looking at only his most recent year to make sure he is healthy, Eovaldi had enormous health issues, but if you are acquiring someone for 2 months, he literally only has to be healthy on the day of the trade.
For Glasnow, he made 9 starts in the Rays final 41 games, so he is probably healthy. I’d be more worried about the $25M than the health. He’s probably pretty close to Snell in talent, but without the risk of a 6-7 year contract.
Plus, they can QO him next season and get the draft pick. And they’ll have a starting pitcher waiting in the wings because they’re signing Ohtani.
Bartolo colon
Issue with acquiring a front end type SP that has more than a year of control is that will cost either Mayer/Teel, then add in possibility of either Perales/Anthony, then think about lesser guys.. Such as Meidroth, Jordan, ERC, Valdez..
No team is going to move a long term, controllable front starter for a package of (just throwing out there) a Bleis, Yorke, then couple of throw ins.
John. Tampa does make moves than most others don’t see coming and such depends on their evaluations. That said, Glasgow is another Sales and Boston is only making such a deal if the traded players don’t have values that can be used elsewhere. Mayer’s value has dipped and there is no way they’re giving up Teal or Anthony unless they get a signed superstar in return.
Sale was extremely healthy before the trade
Except most knowledgeable “experts” indicated then his unorthodox slinging was an injury waiting to happen.
I see what your saying
Anthony, your paragraph on Cease glaringly omitted his command and control problem. He walked 79 batters in 177 innings this past year. That’s a huge red flag for any team—or it should be.
May have more to do with the horrible catchers, I think Cease goes anywhere else and he’s much closer to 2022 than anything else
Grandal and Zavala were the primary catchers in 2022 and 2023. So that doesn’t really hold weight.
2022 was Cease’s only big year. His ERA in his other 4 seasons is 4.47. He’s a good pitcher, but not a great pitcher.
Then all teams are wary of Snell’s 99 BBs, norcal? Walks aren’t going to prohibit teams from signing FAs or consummating trades for TOR arms. I may be colorblind but I certainly fail to see a red flag here…
Gwynn – I totally agree. These days it’s all about the K’s and Cease was 5th in the league this year, with Snell 2nd.
I did a very brief review of guys with his level of walks. I went back exactly ten years, looking for a 3-year history, so that would be 2011-2013.
Looking at the top-30 SPs in BB/9, the only ones that I see any long long-term success with were Darvish (he was #13 with 3.79 BB/9) and Arrieta (he was #12 with 3.93).
Snell has a 4.51 over the past three years. He could be successful, but I view it like this. The past three years, I picked him up on my roto teams, because he was cheap-ish. But I am not picking him up if he is in the top-20. That’s what a prospective GM is looking at. Glasnow is a one-year gamble, Cease a 2-year gamble, and Snell maybe 6-7 years.
As always, it is nice hearing level-headed comments.
His bb/9 has been consistent the last 3 years (3.7,3.8,4.0). He wasn’t as good this year as he was in 21-22 not because of bb’s but because he gave up a lot more hits (7.6,6.2,8.7).
StudWinfield – The problem with a guy that walks 3.7 to 4.0 per 9IP is that if his stuff is off that day his WHIP shoot up to 2.00 and probably costs him the game. High K and high BB guys are a double edged sword that can be great or deadly.
Strikeouts are critical to whoever the Red Sox get because their defense is beyond bad. That’s the only justification for going after big K guys. If Devers goes to DH, then K’s become far less relevant.
I was only addressing his drop in performance from the previous 2 seasons not making a case for or against his value as an acquisition.
StudWinfield:
Hits went up last year
Walks went up last year
Strikeouts went down.
I’d say it was all three. The way your talking high bb’s dont matter and they do. It would be like saying “Billy drives drunk all the time, he only gets in accidents when he’s tired. Therefore, the drunk driving has nothing to do with it.”
A 0.3 rise in bb rate (1 extra bb every 30 innings) is pretty inconsequential. Batters were simply squaring him up more which would reasonably affect his k rate. Perhaps he lost movement on his pitches.
Ha! Very well done RSmith!
@RSmith, I never said high bb rates don’t matter. Cease only had a 0.25 rise in bb rate from 21-22 to 23. If “Billy” only drank one beer and didn’t have an accident but then drank 1.3 beers and had one was it the 0.3 extra that caused it?
Im saying the issue at hand (billy’s drinking and driving/Cease’s high walk rate) is a problem. When its combined with another issue (being tired/lots of hits) it becomes a bigger problem and bad results (accidents/losses) are more likely to come. The second problem entering the equation doesnt justify saying the first problem doesnt exist. It magnifies the first problem.
Also, Cease’s pitching isnt equivalent to “one beer”. Of 58 pitchers with 150IP or more, he is 6th worse in BB/9. (52nd place out of 58 pitchers) Cease is putting away a twelve-pack every night for 3 years.
Ha! You’re on a roll buddy!!
RSmith – exactly. Walks matter as many translate into runs. WHIP is more representative than hits for performance. It is no surprise that pitchers with the lowest WHIP tends to have among the lowest ERA, and the most success!
IMO, WHIP should be changed to include batters-hit-by-pitch as they turn into base runners and end up factoring into runs and ERA!
If “Billy” had not drank at all he may not have had any accident. Obviously, the lower the better when it comes to WHIP and walk rate (and hit batters).
Very well said RSmith.
RSmith, I never said he didn’t have a high bb rate. He had essentially the same rate in 21 & 22 that he did in 23 but with much poorer results this past season. You really believe an increase of 0.25 bb/9 has that much of an impact on his performance? That’s 1 extra walk every 5-6 starts.
“You really believe an increase of 0.25 bb/9 has that much of an impact on his performance?”
I believe he was walking a tightrope before the increase of .25 bb/9. His entire BB/9 is the problem not the tiny increment up, although that does make it worse.
RSmith, “His entire BB/9 is the problem not the tiny increment up…” So we agree that the marginal increase in bb rate is not the issue in his 23 performance. So what are we not agreeing on here? Lol
“He wasn’t as good this year as he was in 21-22 not because of bb’s but because he gave up a lot more hits”
——————————————
This sentence you wrote. Walks are the reason he had a bad year as well as hits. This sentence is where my DD analogy came from. How are you missing this?
And my point is he had the essentially the same bb rate those previous 2 years. How did he succeed then? Pure luck? That’s not even a remotely analytical take. Whatever his bb rate was/is it was the batters putting more of his pitches into play that led to a significantly worse season. Additionally, his FIP increase was not as severe suggesting that having more balls in play resulted in more negative effects due to CHI infield defense. Not only were the more of those walks coming home but the defense had more opportunities to not make plays behind him.
“How did he succeed then? Pure luck?” Kind of. There’s no set formula for BB to runs allowed. It not like you can say ‘if player A gives up 5 walks a game, he will automatically give up 3 runs’. But, it is setting up a disaster for when you do give up hits. More often players will be on the basepaths. He led the league in Wild Pitches last year, which advances runners. Striking out less hitters advances more runners. Throwing more pitches each inning allows more bases to be stolen, which also overworks your bullpen. It all magnifies the problem when he does give up hits.
See Daisuke Matsuzaka for example. He had a 2.90 ERA with a 5.0 BB/9 in 2008. The next two years his BB/9 went down and his ERA went up. He would get to 100 pitches by the 5th or 6th inning most outings. Everybody in Boston knew his control issues were a problem. Just because his BB/9 went down, it didnt mean he would always be in the 2’s or even 3’s with his ERA. It catches up to you. His problem wasnt his hits per 9, it was his entire WHIP.
All I can say is I dont want Cease or Snell on my team. I think they are both due for regression because they throw too many pitches, and walk too many batter.
I’m just not sure how you can define striking out less batters and allowing more hits compared to 2 previous seasons as “kind of” luck or lack thereof. Allowing more hits in front of a below average defense is going to have a negative effect on your results no matter what your bb rate is. Gerrit Cole would have worse stats if he k’d less and gave up more hits.
Question I have now is would you feel differently about Cease if he had repeated his 21/22 success in 23?
I’d like to know why you consider ’21 such a success compared to ’23. Those numbers are pretty similar, except W/L and I dont care about W/L. ERA+, WAR, HR/9 are all much closer between ’21 and’ 23, than ’22. I’d say ’22 is the anomoly, not ’23.
As for trading for him: 3 year trend of walk rate going up, strike out rate going down. Led league in Wild Pitches 2 out the past 3 years. I dont want him this off-season thats for sure.
RSmith – WHIP a stat I talk about all the time is a real key to understanding the pitcher. Some guys dominate and have H/9 IP well below 1.0 but they walk too many so their WHIP rises above 1.25 which is high for a good pitcher. Others allow a hit per inning and walk next to nobody and their WHIP is judged just like the first pitcher with 1.25 being the cut-off for good pitchers.
Dominance is a great thing so finding the H/9 guy that is well below one is great. As he moves forward in his career his barometer for success will be his hit rate even if he walks more than other good pitchers. On the other side of the coin, if a pitcher consistently comes in at roughly 1 H/9 then his walk rate becomes the barometer for his success. He needs to keep his BB/9 around 2.0 if it goes to 3.0 he will struggle. I he goes to 4.0 he E-ROD. An inconsistent performer because he can’t consistently keep his walks down. Yes, great stuff but without consistency in his control he is subject to huge swings from game to game.
Dominant pitchers can get away with a jump in BB/) of 0.1 or even 0.2 without disastrous consequences but guys with 1.0 H/9 can not. Sale has always been a dominant pitcher until his surgery. He could afford to walk a guy or two more per game because his H/9 was between 5.8 and 8.0. When he was young his walk rate was around 2.3 per 9IP and then during his great years it dropped to under 2.0. Since he’s been in Boston under Cora it’s jumped to 2.3 from 1.8. That 0.5 coupled with his rising H/9 has made him far less effective. Whether it’s the pitching coaches, the pitching program, the manager or simply Sale being asked to pitch differently than he did in Chicago and for Farrell, he’s not the same Sale. Yes, he still has great stuff,,like E-Rod, but he’s digressed in his accuracy and his swing and miss rate allowing more H/9. I hope Breslow fixes it.
Matsuzaka had a 2.90 ERA in 2008 because he was dominant as I have explained above. His H/9 was 6.9 and led the league. His 1.324 WHIP is exceptionally high for a guy with such a low ERA. It was his last outstanding season a leading indicator that he was going to struggle going forward. A year later his H/9 jumped to 12.3 from 6.9. His ERA jumped from 2.90 to 5.76. The example you used was an anomaly not a common phenomena.
Matsuzaka like E-Rod is an example of an inconsistent pitcher with wild swings from great to horrible. Not a good investment.
Successful pitchers with high whip/k rates. Two HoFers come to mind:
Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson
Bottom line pitchers are a crap shoot. The very repeated action of it isn’t even natural.
Are you saying Cease is the next Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson? What do they have to do with anything?
Many more HoFers with good control come to mind than bad control. Too many to list.
I’m as ready as anyone to hop on board the Breslow train, but at a certain point one starts to wonder how his insistence that the Sox are in on a front-end starter could possibly square with their total disinterest in each of the front-end starters that’s come off the board so far. There are options out there that I prefer to Cease, Gray, and Nola, too, but I fear the Sox are either not as active as we’ve been told or putting all their eggs in one Yamamoto-shaped basket. Just seems weird to not even kick the tires on a whole crop of well-established veterans.
Or, look at it like this. A cursory check-in with an agent gives you an idea of where they’re at, and what they want.
Why waste effort ‘pursuing’ a player you know you don’t value the way their agents do? What’s the point?
Nola took a team-friendly hometown discount that exceeded contract projections. So, first you’d need to make some allowance for an even richer deal, and then increase that cost again, just to be a front runner.
If that’s a cost far above where you value a guy why would you even waste your efforts?
As for Gray, I never saw him as a good fit in Boston anyways. Neither did many others. So again, why waste your efforts? Just to be a leverage piece to drive up contract values? Now, if you’re arguing Gray was THE guy Boston needed this offseason, I’d like to hear the logic. Because that’s the only reason you should be upset Breslow wasn’t particularly engaged in depth on him.
Nobody says Boston didn’t even check in on the guys, just that they didn’t make any serious efforts.
You’re not completely fixing the team in a single offseason. Bloom left behind an unbalanced roster needing a good bit of work to sort out. I don’t think Breslow expects to fix it all in a single offseason, and, instead intends to make well reasoned (not knee-jerk) acquisitions that will either a) be able to contribute in a sustained and meaningful way in multiplr future seasons; or b) sign a 1 year or 1 yr plus option(s) contract that doesn’t tie the team up as he attempts to execute strategy ‘a’ over this offseason and next.
GA nailed it. This is a multi year task to right the ship. With the correct, precise moves, the ship can be moving in the right direction, perhaps even be a play off contender this year (though they won’t go far if they do).
There is no need to panic buy. I would look for the Sox to target 2025, not 2024, when there’s been a year removed from Bloom, real fixes to the pitching and defense made, and our next wave of prospects arrive.
I see great years coming. It’s just that 2024 isn’t one of them.
I’m not looking for a championship in 2024, I’m looking for improvement. Real, SMART improvement.
DBH – If the Sox sign Yama and trade for Soto I sure as hell am looking for a championship!!!
Agreed, but I don’t think we are getting Soto
DBH – No need for Soto we have Anthony. In two years he’ll be the better player.
You’re totally right, GA, going for broke this offseason doesn’t make sense. And I think it’s true that Breslow’s team is taking the long view in their search. But it’s strange to me to insist you’re hunting at the top of the market if that’s not the actual intention. And if it’s true they’re exploring trades for top-market pitchers, I’ll be honest, I’d rather shell out a little too much money for the likes of Gray and Nola than blow up the farm system again in order to get our hands on someone like Tyler Glasnow. Breslow’s giddiness about trading prospects has struck me as a bit strange (though I agree some of that will be necessary going forward).
The Sox have an abundance of money; they operate in one of the richer markets in the sport and have plenty of payroll to play with. The farm system, though, is something it’s taken patience to rebuild in the wake of the Dombrowski era, and while I actually think Chaim Bloom did his job (crazy take, I know), I’m not sure I like the idea of immediately cashing in on all that rebuilding to get a controllable starter, especially if the idea isn’t to try and win it in 2024. Like, if the idea is to trade for Burnes/Bieber/Glasnow/etc. and then sign them to an extension, why not overpay on the free agent market and avoid giving up Kyle Teel in order to make it happen? The whole “prospects don’t win championships” argument doesn’t really hold a lot of water in the wake of the last decade of dominance by Houston, Atlanta, and LA with teams that are largely home-grown. You have to guard your chips with your life. And to me, there’s no evidence that any of the guys whose names are on the trade market right now would perform better in Boston than Nola, Gray, or any of the other “top-shelf” options available that only cost money, not men.
TLDR is you’re right, shelling out for one or two starters isn’t gonna be the difference-maker this year, but shelling out prospects for one or two starters could very well be a negative difference-maker down the line. If I were Breslow I’d rather hold my cards than play them right now, so I’m not sure why the Sox are posturing like they intend to make a big move.
But, here’s the thing about the storyline of “shopping at the top of the market” thing….
You can shop the top of the market by being in on ‘moto, or being in on ohtani, or both, without being in on the next tier down. It still counts.
Don’t get me wrong, I dont think ohtani is worth what the deal will likely cost for reasons I’ve talked about a bunch of times.
But, I dont think it’s fair to categorize a team as not living up to shopping the top end of the market just for passing on some second tier guys.
So, that said, I do like seeing fellow commenters having passion from day one of this front office. It’s hard when bloom lied and mislead so many times to just trust what the releases say, but still.
thecroc – You left off an important caveat. You have to guard your valuable chips with your life and use your not so valuable chips to improve your MLB team through trades.
Think about how many great players came out fo the minors for Boston and Houston in the last decade. Houston TANKED and got great draft choices. Bloom unintentionally tanked and got the best choices we’ve had in a long, long time. DD picked late in the first round and got both Casas and Houck They are keepers. Guys like Moncada, Kopech and Espinoza were not keepers and brought back key parts that led to a ring. If we look in our minors right now, there are very few players that look to be future stars yet carry value. They are the prospects you use to get key SPs from other teams. Yorke was a star one year then fizzled. Mayer had a good year then got hurt. Will he rebound in 2024? We hope so.
With all the emphasis on faulty metrics a smart GM will take that bad information and boost the value of minor league players who really aren’t that talented like Downs was boosted by Friedman. If Breslow can use smoke and mirrors like Friedman often does, he should be able to move Yoshida, Verdugo and several minor leaguers to get two good pitchers. Bieber, Burnes and others would all be good additions and nobody will care that the players I have mentioned have left because they are so easily replaced for far less money in the case of Yoshida and Verdugo.
The big difference makers this off season are simple: 1 – Fix the defense by putting Devers at DH and 2 – Add two top notch starters through FA or trade. That should be step one for Breslow. That’s it. The rest is not that bad so the team could win another dozen games with those two changes. If everyone stays healthy and Sale is back to being Sale they could win 100 games. That’s how big the two problems are that Breslow is facing.
Bloom – When you have exceptional young talent available, you go for it. You can’t plan for success 2 or more years down the road, too much is unpredictable.
Nola wasn’t leaving Philly (and he’s too inconsistent anyway), and Gray is not a top of the rotation arm, he’s more of a 3. Cease had a bad year and has really only had one good year
While I agree at times Nola has been a bit inconsistent. He is nowhere near being a #3 though. The guy has 3 top 10 Cy Young finishes and 2 of them were top 5. At worst he is a low end one to top end two varying by year.
I think Pedro meant Gray is more of a 3, and I would tend to agree. Nola is a pseudo-1 or 2… a workhorse and he gets the job done per se, but how much mileage does he have left on those tires?
@Gwynning: That was my point exactly, thank you for helping me clarify
That’s why I don’t get the Breslow bashing, except that RS fans take pride in hating our GMs and managers before anyone else.
I like Nola well enough, but I never thought he was leaving Philly. I like Gray well enough, but as a #2. And to be honest, it’ll be similar to Yamamoto. If the NYY get him at $200M/8, I will question why we didn’t go $225M/9. But if Preller gives him $360M/12, then I won’t question Breslow not signing him.
Basically, if Breslow is not signing guys that are unsignable, or are a poor fit/price, I have nothing to complain about.
I actually liked Theo. Sorry about the gorilla suit bro.
Joe – Again, just like I explained to Bruin1012, you have a different perspective than average Red Sox fans. You think Bloom wasn’t that bad so you don’t feel tortured like the rest of us. Pointing out a non impactful move as being a Bloom-like move is perfectly fine because that’s what we endured for four years. You enjoyed it and we hated it. You tolerate mediocrity far better than most Boston fans do. Congrats if you think that’s something to be proud of.
Also, you make everything personal. When someone criticizes a choice by Breslow they are criticizing the choice not the man. Just like saying Devers sucks on defense is a commentary on his defense not on Devers.
I agree that Breslow needs to use a value to cost evaluation system and only spend money on players with a value greater than 1. Verdugo, who didn’t non-tender, will not have a value over 1 just like the last two years. Because of that I think it’s a bad choice by Breslow but if he unloads him in a deal then I’ll praise his choice because he dumped a below 1 player and got back an above 1 player. That’s what it’s all about. Raising the talent level is critical after Bloom destroyed it.
So go easy on the folks evaluating moves and don’t take it personally for Breslow. It’s no different than point out a hitter K’d at a key point and you are unhappy it happened. That’s not an indictment on the player, it’s a simple evaluation of a single action. His next at bat might be a homer and he will be complimented, just like Breslow’s next move might be to sign Yamamoto and we’ll compliment him.
Joe – Who is bashing Breslow? Or is that just another gratuitous shot at Sox fans?
I really wanted the Sox to snag Maeda. I think he would have been a great fit at a great price. I don’t see them landing Cease or Glasnow via trade. And I’m also wary of giving Snell, Montgomery or Yamamoto the type of contracts they will all be seeking. Nola was the guy I really wanted. Not super encouraged with their options at this point, to be honest.
HB, money is only money and the Sox have saved big bucks in salaries the last few years. There’s no reason they can’t double down on the Devers overpayment (which was needed for PR purposes). I’m expecting at least one of either Yamamoto, Soto and/or Cease ending up in Boston. The team needs a big off season for NESN, general marketing purposes and is just lucky there are few alternatives in the summer. Those on this forum know I first was not happy that DD was let go but then I was equally upset with Bloom’s firing (he built up the farm and did ownership’s dirty work in my view). It’s behind us now and ownership needs to and will make a huge splash in the next month or so. It’s unlikely to be Ohtani but water will spray like watermelon juice at an old Gallagher show.
They need top of the rotation arms, Maeda is not what they need
My guess here is that you will get Yamamoto no matter what he costs, and a trade for a young hurler with a lot of upside who hasn’t really been thought of as available. As far as Teel and Anthony, right now I’d think they were untouchable but maybe Mayer, Verdugo, Jordan get it done!
Spitball, Jordan is a wild card no one talks about. He’s still so young and to me he’s basically untouchable as no one will take him yet as a primary piece and for Fenway, he can end up being another Jim Rice (I’d settle for a George Scott). Big righty bat with true Fenway power. Unless I’m blown away, I’d prefer to let him mature in the organization.
Dewey – Blaze Jordan has no position to play thanks to Devers and Casas. He is a surplus guy who needs to show value so he can be used in deal to get a SP. Anthony has earned an untouchable tag unlike Teel. Teel is simply the lastest high draft pick that we hope will be great like Mayer and Yorke before that. Watching the progress that Mayer and Yorke have made in the minors, I think jumping to a conclusion of greatness prematurely is easy to do. Mayer does not appear to be the superstar he was portrayed to be but he could still end up there but we all should be less optimistic than 2 years ago. Likewise, we can be very optimistic with Teel but until he establishes himself like Anthony did, he’s just a lot of potential that hasn’t been realized.
Right now, I would put Rafaela and Anthony in the untouchable category and Teel is borderline in that category. Guys like Mayer, Bleis, Yorke, Jordan, Romero, Zantello, Bonaci and Cespedes are tradeable if the offer is going to fill an immediate need to turn around the ball club.
I still believe the defense needs to be fixed along with the pitching needs to be upgraded greatly. Simple moves can accomplish one of the two goals. The pitching upgrade will be the big challenge and have the biggest impact on wins in 2024 and beyond.
I agree with you on almost everything Only real exception is that I make Blaze Jordan untouchable. I view his .250ish average at AA as just the normal adjustment phase. He started A the same way.
He is (in the minors anyway) a .300+ hitter with massive power.
AND HE PLAYS THIRD!!!!
He should be UNTOUCHABLE as he is the cure for Devers Fever!!!
I’m not sure if Jordan will be an improvement over Devers but Devers has to be the DH for this team to consistently win. Defense saves runs and arms. My point on Jordan is currently, I value him higher than probably most other teams. Thus, let him build on his value and if Devers suddenly learns how to play the field (LOL), we can trade Jordan for more value later.
Teel jumped all the way up to AA in 2 months, how is he “simply the lastest high draft pick that we hope will be great like Mayer and Yorke before that.”?
Sign Mark Belanger. (sic) Move Story to second. Pray for Devers everyday. Problem solved.
DBH – From your keyboard to Breslow’s brain!!! If he replaces Devers at 3B I want him untouchable too!!!! Now you got my hopes up, damn. I can only say I hope you are right but I won’t hold my breath until it happens.
Pedro – We have had many one season wonders. If Teel is legit this year and earns promotions then as I stated he’ll be an untouchable. Many said that about Yorke when he started fast, then they said it about Mayer when he started fast but we need people to do it for more than a season to move them to untouchable.
Everyone wants our high draft picks to be great but it’s rare to see a great player emerge from a draft. Mookie wasn’t a high choice but by year two in the minors he was special. Same for Bogey, Devers and even Benny. That’s what we need out of the Bloom draft picks. Consistency in climbing to new heights each successive season. I think Rafaela and Anthony look the most like emerging stars but that could change quickly. Time will tell.
Bee – What are we praying for with Devers that the problem will be solved? Nothing bad I hope, just a move to DH would work for me.
If only we could have. Belanger/Brooks R combination.
TF – How do you feel about replacing Devers with Longoria?
TF – I just pictured you holding your breath and blowing up like that girl who chewed the gum at the Wonka factory. Haha!
Fever – Sorry it’s been years since my kids watched Wonka and the Chocolate factory. Longoria for $4MM to play 3B for 81 games would be great. If he could play more at his age, that’s even better. You trade Yoshida’s $18MM to sign Longoria for $4MM and take the $14MM and put it into getting Hader.
Do you all remember Lars Anderson? The untouchable prospect that didn’t end up worth anything when he got to the big leagues? We’ve had a bunch of untouchable prospects that didn’t work out. It’s hard to tell what they will do once they get to the majors, but sometimes you need to take a proven player for an unproven top prospect.
kool – Fans tend to become attached to their prospects, they overvalue them in large part because of the hype that comes from their team and the local media. Not to mention the absurd prospect rankings …. was Jeter Downs really an MLB Top 45 prospect in 2020?
What absolutely cracks me up, all the people here ragging on Dombrowski for either promoting or trading prospects.
You know which team’s farm system is ranked dead last in MLB right now? The Astros. You think ANY Astros fan is unhappy with their front office because of that ranking?
Guess whose farm system is ranked 4th-worst in MLB right now? The Braves. Again, can you find ANY Braves fan who is unhappy because of that ranking?
The Jays have the 6th-worst farm system and the Phillies have the 8th-worst. I guarantee neither of those fanbases are saying “screw the playoffs, we want a better farm system”.
Some people here don’t seem to understand farm system rankings are cyclical. The goal is not to have the best farm system, the goal is to produce prospects that can be promoted or traded for a valued return.
Why does this feel like Bloom again? Waiting until the big players come off the chart, then sign a middle of the rotation starter? Breslow has his work cut out for him, that’s for sure.
“Waiting until the big players come off”
What are you talking about? Per MLBTR Top 50 Free Agents, 2 of the Top 20 have come off so far. The vast majority are still unsigned.
It seems youve been in panic mode since FA started. Give it some time.
While true it’s also two of the top of the rotation arms. That leaves Yamamoto who has half the league bidding for him. Snell who some have issues with his innings and walks. Then if you want to count Monty.
After that the drop continues. Wouldn’t be that big of a deal but every team seems desperate for pitching this year.
“While true it’s also two of the top of the rotation arms.”
“Then if you want to count Monty.”
So you consider Sonny Gray a “top of the rotation arm”. But Montgomery gets an “if”. — Did you watch the World Series? More melodrama, whatever.
@ Simm –
Nola took a hometown discount that exceeded expectations in total value.
So, tell me, how many years and dollars would you see him as being worth? Because his discounted deal was 7/172m. So, let’s speculate, but that means the other offer was either 8 yrs, or, probably 190m or more. Now you need to outbid that.
Was Nola worth what, either 9 years or 210m or more to you? I hope not.
You can’t point out snell and Monte’s warts and ignore Gray’s or Nola’s either.
Monty was great in the post season but overall gray has been better minus a stint in New York.
I have yet to see an actual figure that was greater than the 172m he got. If Nola took a discount it’s barely any at all.
That’s completely what I meant. The pitching market
Already the biggest pitchers have come off the market. Breslow said pitching was a priority. Where is he getting these pitchers? Montgomery might be good but easily an overpay
If we could pry Burnes from the brewers And sign him ala sale or pedro that would be the best move
I am very happy that the Sox aren’t out there overpaying for players just so they can say they got a player. We don’t need more of the PR department making contract decisions. We don’t need more Devers type panic pays.
I am giving more credit to Breslow and Bailey having a better eye for pitching than reporters. They may see more potential their current young arms and prospects. I do fully expect them to be hard on Yamamoto, and would even okay with a bit of an overpay for him.
If they can fix the current staff, they may only need one front end starter. Yamamoto fills that need in my eye
DBH – The challenge with only getting one top end SP is the slotting and match-ups. You must count on Sale under a scenario where we only add 1. The new pitcher goes to the SP1 slot, then you put Sale at SP2 and Bello at SP3. Bellow gets winnable match-ups. If Sale is not capable of being the SP2 then Bello matches up as the SP2 and he’ll struggle to win games compared to matching up against other SP3s.
Otherwise, I like your suggestions but I still struggle to see how Breslow convinces anyone to come to Boston with Devers playing 3B and misplaying 50 or more balls during the 150 games he plays 3B. I think given near equal pay a smart pitcher goes to the team that has defense like the Cardinals.
@Trollfree, Legit point on 2 starters instead of one, especially since I would lot slot Sale as 3 or 4 at this point. I think they take Yamamoto (outbidding everyone) and take a 2nd tier chip either via FA or Trade.
Despite the spin, I don’t think Devers is 3b for the whole season. I think they give Yoshi until the deadline to improve his value. Same with Verdugo, MAYBE. Doogie might not see ST with Boston, though I could see keeping him until the deadline. It’s his walk year, and he has a chip on his shoulder… usually leads to good numbers.
If so, package Yoshi and Verdugo for a good, young, controllable 3b at the deadline even if you have to toss in a couple midgrade prospects eat some Yoshi money.. Devers to DH at that point.
As I have posted before, 100% effort on pitching in the offseason, wait until the deadline to worry about 2b and devers.
But again, good point on the Rotation Slotting.
I like being the highest offer on ‘moto for a couple reasons. Maybe two of the most important are the generic,
1) his stuff should translate well to MLB, plenty of reports on him will agree.l,
And the economic,
2) he only costs money, but, because he’s 25 yrs old, even a 10 or 12 year deal isn’t bad. Think of how market rates for SP go up over time. Even at 28m/yr, by year 10 that’s likely the rate being paid to reclamation projects on 1 year make-good deals. So think about where the market would be by then, when you consider the costs.
Other teams probably will, or should, but of all the FA this is one of the easiest to be aggressive on.
DBH – I think Yama will be the most intense bidding we’ve ever seen. Because of his young age even mid-market teams will go hard after him. Whomever gets him will give up a stupid amount of money and it will be an overpay no matter what.
It’s like the housing market during Covid. Yeah the prices were insane, but if you need a place to live what are you gonna do? Overpay for a house, that’s what.
Not necessarily, FPG. Most teams couldn’t afford him anyway. Other teams can afford him, but won’t commit to a huge contract.
Others who can are also near their budget limit.
This is where the power of the big market Sox with 100 mils of room left need the hammer down the wannabes.
He is a 25 year old who, at worst, is a number 2 or 3 guy. If the Sox are not going to use that power for this type of player, we mind as well all become A’s fans
DBH – You don’t think most teams can afford $20M/12 years? There’s no doubt in my mind at least 20 teams can. Some of the owners might even pull a Loria and backload it like Stanton’s contract with the intention of selling the team within 5 years.
One thing to keep in mind, billionaire owners are used to getting whatever they want. If they become fixated on signing Yama, they will throw caution to the wind. I could see Ricketts, Moreno, Cohen, Steinbrenner, Davis and a few others doing that.
It will be fascinating, I hope they document it like they did when Duquette pursued Manny.
Fever – I think you are suggesting hitter parameters for a pitcher. I think the winning bid for Yamamoto will be $28MM for 6 years. Not a lot of teams can afford $28MM except the big market teams and maybe a mid market team or two but that’s a big number per year. A foreign pitcher should get 4 to 6 years max then if he proves to be special up the years with an extension in year 2 or 3.
We all know the Yankees signed Cole for $35MM when they were already over the cap. As of right now, the Phillies, Mets and Yankees don’t really have a way to sign him and stay under and it’s only December. Could they go $28MM per year? Yes but DD already got what he wanted in Nola, the Yankees have way too many holes to concentrate on only one and the Mets aren’t competitive right now but their payroll is maxing out.
Boston’s big issue as always will be their lack of defense. A team like Texas if they don’t get Ohtani could outbid Boston for Yamamoto. How fun would it be for him to pitch with deGrom, Shcerzer and Eovaldi?
I think Breslow needs to find the early sign number. He needs to know what is critical to Yamamoto. length of contract, $ per year, location, talent level, defense, tradition of handling foreign players. Other things that are not in the Red Sox favor is Cora being the manager and the Owners treating Mookie and Price so poorly along with Martinez, Bogaerts and Eovaldi.
Breslow simply must find out what’s the most key factors in Yamamoto’s decision making process and then do all he can to exceed expectations on those factors.
FPG, I think that many teams will be more budgeted than normal until the RSN issues are settled
TF – Great post but I have to disagree on Yama, no chance he signs for less than $170M as you suggested. MLBTR has him at 9 years and $225M and he’ll probably have an opt-out after 2026. If he pitches like a $40M pitcher, he exercises the opt-out. If he doesn’t, he’s a decent pitcher making $25M annually until age 33.
I think the first commenter has it right. Bring in Montgomery and Yamamoto, believe in Bello as a strong #3, Sale as a #4 and add Wacha for 2 years as a #5. That leaves solid long relievers who can step in if there are injuries. Trade Verdugo and a middle of the road prospect for Gleyber Torres. Keep Justin Turner and/or Adam Duval.
Yes, And Santa Claus is coming to town…..your dreaming regarding both Yamamoto and Monty being added to the Sox rotation….and the Yankees don’t want Mr. Chains (however that awful looking red thing he calls a beard would have to go too) Verdugo even if they really want to move Gleyber……
rocky7 – Yamamoto is a long shot because of Devers. Monty will be dependent on whether Texas gets Ohtani. If Ohtani goes to Texas Monty will be available. If Ohtani does not go to Texas, it’s very likely he will re-sign with the current world champions. He loved it there and they loved him. It won’t be about money it will be about rings.
Texas being a no state taxes state will factor in. The next CBA should include a cost of living kicker into the equation. Weather factors can’t be changed but tax levels with a COLA can and should be considered.
Dewey – That’s a great point. 81 games wtih no state tax is huge when you are making $50MM a year. Ask both deGrom and Scherzer!! They aren’t $50MM but they aren’t that far off $50MM.
Rocky – Are you one of those Yankee fans that thinks they will trade for Soto and sign Belli, Yama and Snell?
They will NOT have a billion dollar outfield, one of their three outfielders will be at a reasonable cost and Dugie fits that category.
Yamamoto is getting 250M+ and Montgomery is getting around 200M. No way the Sox sign both, more likely is that they sign neither.
Rmullig2 – Agreed only because Devers is at 3B. The good news is the numbers you quoted were total contracts not $ vs the CAP. Getting 2 stud SPs for $50MM against the CAP annually is achievable if they will come. The CAP room is good and gets even better if players like Yoshida and Verdugo are dealt. That adds $27MM more to the coffers per year.
TF – We should have like a competition to predict where each player signs.
Ohtani to Texas, Yamamoto to Boston. Other guy that I can think of his name goes to Seattle
DBH – I have those first two picks! Were you looking over my shoulder when I filled out my picks?
If it’s Snell you’re thinking of, I have him to the Giants.
DBH – Were you thinking the other Japanese pitcher that hasn’t been posted yet? Seattle seems reasonable for him.
If Ohtani goes to LAD then Texas gets Yamamoto. If Ohtani goes to Texas then LAD probably gets Yamamoto. Snell probably goes to a NY team because he’ll be way over paid and a bad choice in the short run. If Ohtani goes to Texas and Yamamoto goes to LAD then Monty is a possibility for Boston. Watching Seager and Jung play the left side of the infield and watching Carter in left field and it becomes obvious how big Boston’s problem is with Devers, Story and Yoshida. Story is good, not Seager good but he’s good enough. I watch Jung dive for balls that Devers would never touch. I see half hit balls caught on the run and pinpoint throws to first base by Jung. Then I watch Devers field routine grounders with no balance, an erratic arm and poor footwork and just shake my head and ask WHY? I watch the range and speed of Carter and his arm and boy Boston can’t afford to play Yoshida in the outfield, especially if Devers is at 3B.
So DBH, I agree with you.
@FPG and TF….
I was thinking of the guy from Japan. I think he goes to Seattle. I agree on Snell to Giants.
1 more… Monty to Boston to be close to his wife. Resident hours are brutal. He will want to spend time with her, I think.
TF – When did you become down on Story’s defense? He’s a crappy hitter, but his defense is outstanding. He’s a true athlete.
Fever – Not down on Story’s defense, I’m down on his package as a whole for $23.3MM. If Rafaela or Mayer were ready to step in then I’d deal him to a team that is willing to give us prospects for him. Reducing the payroll and improving the farm system is an excellent move for Breslow but we need a SS that can step in and play above his cost.
TF – Okay thank you for the clarification, I thought you were talking defense only. Yeah what a God-awful contract.
Go get Montgomery. Start him against the yanks every series. He’s a competitor with a chip on his shoulder. Baseball doesn’t have enough of those.
I also agree with most here ..not interested on Gray. Nola or Cease really..and why waste time with them. Breslow seemed pretty clear on the need for rotation help but glad hes not in on EVRYONE as its important to get the right guy..as the “warm body” approach bloom used so much (Kluber, Paxton) doesnt work..if we get shut out i dont think we will hear about “finishing second” this time.leakong stories on how much you offered always seemed a bit petty and more or less checking a box hooing fans give you points for trying..thats bs and we all know it…this time the player will legit not want to be in Boston or simply prefer another team for whatever reason regardless of money…this what i think at least
It would be interesting to see the Mets play the long game with the pitching market. They have Senga- trade for Cease, sign Yammamoto, bite the bullet for a year on Burns but have him for next season and in 2 years roll out Senga, Yammamoto, Burns and Cease as your top 4. They can also eat the Glasgnow $ for a year and see if they could extend him. If they can trade for and extend Cease you’d have 3/5 in place for at least 3 years. TG and Burns being your wildcards based on health, performance and contract. If one of the two of them pan out it’d be worth the gamble on short term deals and you could end up with an enviable 1-4.
So you want to sign Yamamoto in a “re-tooling” offseason for the Mets and want to trade for Cease, Burnes and Glasnow? You want some fries with that too, or maybe just some extra Snell on top?
Don’t forget the Shohei sauce please.
Lol. Ill have a Yamamoto with Shohei sauce and a side of Burnes Snell.
RSmith, that would cost almost as much as a McDonald’s meal deal!
DBH: Supersize it, with a Montgomery!
Seriously: Montgomery or Yamamoto with a secondary pitcher (ERod or Stroman) and Im very happy. No Ohtani or Snell.
100% in agreement with you. Heck I am ok with just ‘Moto and giving Breslow and Bailey a season with Houck, Bello, and the rest of the young pitchers
What do you think re-tooling is? They can add pieces for the future. They want YY, that’s clear and they will make a play for him. Cease is being discussed in trades and the Mets have prospects from last season to deal. Burnes was cut and Glasnow will be traded due to financial reasons and Cohen has money. The Mets need an entire rotation. But your would you like fries with that comment really added a lot of value to the discussion.
Not as much as your “Burnes was cut” take just now. Thanks for the laugh! Cheers amigo
He was non-tendered, effectively cut. Understand the game pal.
Back at ya, pal. Are you confused with Woodruff?
@Carlos15 All joking aside, why would the Mets want to trade those said prospects whom they paid a bunch of dead money for Max and JV to acquire? The smart play is allow the bolstered farm to bear some fruit. Otherwise, you’re suggesting the Mets push all-in again while burning away tens of millions of dollars.
It’s actually not surprising they haven’t gone after Cease when they have pitchers who have put up better numbers. Why trade for a guy that you already have?
I think the Red Sox are going to end up placing a lot of stock into the current young arms they have. I see Houck, Whitlock, Bello, Crawford and Wink all benefitting from Breslow and Bailey’s presence. However, health is a huge concern for most of our rotation. With that being said, I’d expect at least one big SP signing to supplement what we have. YY, Snell, and Monty are most likely the main targets with a couple trade candidates like Burnes and Glasnow as well.
Montgomery has already moved to Boston for his wife’s residency at a hospital in Boston. I did not read how long the residency is, but I would almost be surprised if he doesn’t sign with Boston.
If Yamamoto lands on east coast – it’ll be boston. Don’t count em out in free agency. They are gonna get there’s and get there’s before they make any trades
I disagree here. Its either Mets or Yankees if he stays on EC however im confident Dodgers land both Ohtani and Yamamoto to put together a dream team. They are going to convince both to accept lessor money to play for a winner although rest assured they both will still get paid but not at the rumored contracts being thrown around.
Anthony – NY is not a better landing spot than Boston for Yamamoto. History shows Boston has had more success with Japanese players.
LAD is not going to land Ohtani and Yamamoto. Why would Ohtani choose to go to a team that doesn’t win in the post season when he could go to an already great Ranger team in Texas where there is no state tax!!! If Ohtani chooses based on current talent he’ll take TX over LAD. If he chooses based on financial considerations he still takes TX. Nobody really knows his criteria so your guess is as good as anybody’s but your reasoning for going to LAD is faulty. He could end up there but not likely for the reasons you stated.
Tony – The Yanks will get Belli or Soto, they desperately need a big bat. They are not gonna add $600M in one offseason by also signing Yama.. They aren’t gonna eat Rodon’s contract and they’ve got Cortes too and will likely bring back Montas or Montgomery.
We need 2 starters. A front of the rotation arm and a middle starter 3-4 type. I don’t care how we acquire them but it needs to get done. Id prefer signing one because it just costs money but still. Get me Yamamoto and Wacha or Montgomery and Stroman. Or make a trade. Something of those ilks would help so much.
Jake – Yamamoto fits the bill for a new SP1 in Boston. His age fits in with the young guns Boston already has. Getting Cora out of the mix with the new pitching coach may have a huge impact like it did in Texas when Boche brought in Maddux as their pitching coach. Guys like Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, Crawford and even Mata and Bastardo could all become better pitchers from the upgrade in coaching.
I’m not a fan of Wacha or Stroman and Monty most likely will return to Texas so I think Boston needs to consider trade candidates but not borderline trade candidates they need a guy like Burnes or Bieber to go along with Yamamoto. They need Sale to be the #3 SP with Bello #4 to really change their chances of winning more than 81 games in 2024.
Fixing the bad defense is something Breslow must consider as well.
I completely agree with everything you just said. They get 2 starters like that, they could definitely win 90 games this year, staying mostly healthy of course.
TF – Then who replaces Casas? Dalbec?
I think you could be right. Maybe they get one front end starter and not two and then count on the new hires to work with the pitching staff they have.
Plenty of young guys perhaps could be transformed into reliable starting pitching? As you mentioned guys like Houck and Crawford.
My reply was to NewYorkSoxFan. I hate when this happens.
Gary – Yeah sometimes happens to me too. If you move around after clicking reply and go back to the comment window, it removes the person you’re replying to.
You know what I really hate is that when you click on the new posts message it doesn’t take you directly to the new posts anymore.
Right especially on those Red Sox articles where there’s 200 comments. The brand new entries used to be lit up in green online. Those were the days.
No E-Rod reunion?
Declining the deadline trade to LA tells you all you want to know about ERod. Just doesn’t have the desire to buckle down when the going gets tough. Never did, never will. Been there. seen that.
I’m not real high on E-Rod either. I’m a Tigers fan. I think he’s got a toxic wife that’s running the show. But, that’s just my opinion.
Troy – You know what they say …. crazy in the head, crazy in the ….. eh nevermind.
Haha! Never heard that one.
let’s say you’re yamamoto and you’re choosing between the red sox and the yankees. one team can hit but can’t catch the ball to save their lives. the other team can catch the ball but can’t hit to save their lives. who do you choose?
As a pitcher, I’d rather have an inept offense than a bad defense behind me bc it doesn’t effect the way I pitch. I’m not going to try K every batter and trust my defense to make plays.
YBC – I won’t speak for every pitcher, but most pitchers are more effective with a good offense supporting them. They don’t have the pressure of making a perfect pitch every throw and can challenge hitters more when they have a nice lead to work with.
And when a team is down big, their hitters don’t exactly grind out every at bat. They will have half-hearted at bats, typically swinging at everything to speed up the game. There’s definitely a benefit to pitching with a lead, especially a nice lead.
It will be interesting to see how Breslow evaluates the pitchers and ultimately what happens.
At this point it appears that Boston along with every other big market big dollars team is all in on YY. He seems to potentially be the only true #1 available this off-season. I say potential because we don’t know, he has never pitched in MLB. Senga looked really good last year so hopefully that bodes well for Yamamoto. You just never know how they will respond to the increased pitching load that will be expected as a true ace in MLB.
If you really dig deep in Monty’s numbers he’s just not a #1 he’s more like a solid #2. He really raised his stock in the Post this year and he he is a nice pitcher should probably age well as a crafty lefty who stays out of the middle of the plate has a bulldog mentality but I think he’s getting paid like an ace. Nola seemed to really want to go back to the Phillies and I kind of look at them similar I think Nola left dollars on the table to go back to the Phillies. My guess in this pitching crazy offseason someone is going to overpay for Monty’s services he’s probably going to get 200 million is he worth 7 200 probably not and it may end up being higher if a bidding war goes off on him.
Snell has the stuff to be a true #1 but he’s inconsistent and injury prone. I think someone is going to overpay for that guy and they are going to be disappointed.
The guy I would really like to see Boston look at this year if they can’t get the Yamamoto is Shota Imanaga. He’s probably going to get a contract like Senga did and he’s been really good in Japan. We haven’t really seen him much but the numbers he’s put up have been damn good. Since all we have is projection with him just like Yamamoto and really just basing it off NPB numbers this guy is certaintly worth a shot at a much lower price point.
I’m not saying the Red Sox shouldn’t go hard after Yamamoto they should it seems like Breslow is all in on that one but ultimately it comes down to an ownership decision on that one if Yamamoto is truly going to the high bidder. If a bidding war starts for this guy I just can’t see FSG outbidding especially if the cost goes into the 300 million level. The point is it’s not failure on Breslow if these guys get away and they have to settle on Imanga. I would be happy with Imanga and another arm if the bidding gets crazy for Yamamoto.
For everyone worrying about the money and the cost of the SPs think about this:
C – Wong Under $1MM FA in 2030
1B – Casas Under $1MM FA in 2030
2B – Valdez Under $1MM FA in 2031
SS – Story $23.3MM
3B – Devers $29.15MM (hopefully DH by YE 2023)
LF – Abreu Under $1MM FA in 2031
CF – Duran Under $1MM FA in 2029
RF – Verdugo ESTIMATED $9.2 arbitration cost (hopefully traded so Anthony @ $1MM)
DH – TBD (Ideally Devers is here and this cost is for a legit 3B)
That’s one very inexpensive offense with great future potential.
SP1 – New FA for $25MM
SP2 – New FA for $25MM
SP3 – Sale $25.6MM
SP4 – Bello Under $1MM FA in 2030
SP5 – Houck and/or Crawford $2MM FAs in 2028 and 2029
SP6 – Pivetta $7.5MM FA in 2025
Closer – Jansen $16MM FA in 2025
Lefty Set-up – Bernardino under $1MM FA 2031 and TBD (Hader at $18MM for 3 years)
Righty Set-up – Martin $6.75 FA 2025 and WInckowski under $1MM FA 2030
Pitching would cost $90MM with 2 $25MM SPs leaving $140MM and change for the offense which currently totals about $70MM. Boston has a TON of money for 2024 and can seriously upgrade 3B/2B/SP1/SP2/Lefty Reliever and depth.
Spotrace has something like 58 million and Cots has something like 53 million. Still it’s a lot of money that’s available to upgrade the team. I have no doubt there will be some upgrading going on.
The thing that I think it’s not just the Red Sox that have a ton of money to spend it’s also a lot of other teams and some teams like the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Rangers that don’t seem to really care about the lux tax. I just find it hard to believe that FSG is going to outbid those teams in all bidding war for Ohtani or Yamamoto. There is a lot of space to improve the team though so I expect some nice moves incoming. I just think going 500+ million or 300 + million is an ownership decision and whether those guys become Red Sox is strictly on ownership it’s not Breslow’s call. He can lobby for them but ultimately it’s ownership who fits that bill.
The Sox reset the CBT threshold in 2023 which means they can go over in 2024 and reset it in 2025. Sale is on a $20 million club option and Jansen’s $16 million come off the books in 2025. Sox really have around $85 million they can spend in 2024..
PKCasimir – Right you are AND guys like Yoshida and Devers as two DHs can fetch either $18MM or $30MM if traded.
$50MM on two SPs and close to $20MM on a second closer that is younger than Jansen and can sign for 3 years with options for more total $70MM worth spending. Starting an outfield that costs under $3MM is key to having enough money to get pitching. If Rafaela or Mayer improves enough to replace Story at SS the team could trade Story at the trade deadline in 2024 to add another $23.3MM for 2025. Boston has a guy who looks like a future stud at 1B, they have NO 3B right now that can field adequately so that needs to be on the menu,and wasted money needs to be dealt. Wasted money is unnecessary and unproductive depth at DH and Verdugo. Since Pivetta is expensive and going to be a FA in a year he is another who could be traded to get some prospects or quality relievers.
This team is positioned to turn things around in 2024 despite all the damage done by Bloom. It all starts with fixing the defense and getting the needed SPs. If that doesn’t happen, then 2024 will be another .500 season.
When Boston contracted Jansen and Martin for 2 years I thought it was a huge waste of money ($47MM) since the team wasn’t going to be a playoff team and by the time Bloom and Cora were eliminated the reliever contracts would be up so rather than putting the money into deals for young stars they went for two old late inning guys with a .500 team. Not smart.
“Spotrac”
You’re missing quite a few guys Sox payroll sits at about 150mill right now. Now I don’t disagree…with Sales 27.5 likely coming off in 25 unless he returns to dominate form for 20mill club option. And our CBT is 0 after reset…they could easily spend up to 150 million more if they wanted a 300mill payroll so nothing should be out of bounds to get our payroll in the top 5 in MLB where it should be. Also trades/with extensions possible, Ohtani is affordable to us and we lack power plus Pivetta & Sale are gone most likely in 25 so what are they waiting for?
baseballguru – My number was so high because it includes $18MM for trading Yoshida, $9.2 for trading Verdugo. That’s an additional $27MM to get pitching. If you check SPOTRAC you will see the $150 includes both Verdugo and Yoshida so it’s actually under $130 which means there is $100MM under the cap with the two trades. That’s a lot of money for 2 SPs, Hader, a 3B and a 2B like Merrifield. Add 5 guys and move Devers to DH and you have a 100 win team for less than the CAP.
Ballsy plan KD well thought out looks pretty close to a best case for the best record for Boston next year.
I’m very confident that Duggie is going to moved not sure how easy it will be to move Masa and how that would effect the Japanese market going forward but even if they had the balls to move Devers to DH and sign Chapman to play third that would be huge defensively. Devers would be a 30 million dollar DH but who cares he was signed to that contract on Blooms watch. Chapman is so good defensively and I would love to see ground balls to the left get through Chapman and Story lol. It would really help an elite ground ball pitcher like Bello to have a quality left side defensive alignment like that.
They could even keep Masa in left it allows them to sign Yamamoto and play Duran in center and either Rafaela or Abreu in right whoever looks the best in spring training they start and the other guy goes back to AAA as a backup. The outfield defense would not be as good but the overall defense would be much better with a full year of Story at short and the far superior third baseman defender Chapman. I guess it just really all comes down to getting Devers off the dirt.
Bruin1012 – It really does. Devers is the big stumbling block right now. Living with Yoshida in left field is only smart if he out performs Duran, Rafaela and Abreu. Someone suggested Rafaela could play 3B and if that is true, that would be a HUGE boost to the defense without giving up Devers or Yoshida. Personally, our young outfielders are so good the $18MM for Yoshida will be a huge over pay as the youngsters come into their own. They are all controlled until 2030!!! Amazing chance to build a great young team and back fill the minors with depth by dealing Yoshida and Verdugo. Maybe even Devers if someone would give up prospects for his monster contract. He needs to thrive at DH or that contract will be a nightmare for Breslow to deal with. The owners need to own that contract and not force Breslow to count that money if Devers falls off. It’s another Manny/Panda situation waiting to happen. Lets hope it’s at least 5 or 6 years down the road.
TF – It’s true! Rafaela has played 613 innings at 3B.
Did you go to the Cybertruck event today? That would have been exciting!
Great breakdown tf
Second that good job tf
One thing that worries me on montgomery is he is a boras client ..yes talent is a step below several others but boras will try and sell him as a 1b
@Pool.
Boras can be countered with, “Does your client want to explain to his wife why is is saying no to playing in the town where she lives and works?”
I hate Boras too. Red Sox have been burnt by him in the past (Stephen Drew, Dice-K). But DBH is right, it seems like they are setting down roots. Why else would they both be in Boston during the winter. Im pretty sure there are Dermatology Schools in CA or FL. His wife really wants to be in New England.
YOSHIDA aka “MACHO MAN”
YAMAMOTO aka “YOSSY” &
OHTANI aka “SHOTIME”
Completes the JAPANESE “TRIAD”️ at FENWAY PARK!
This is THE WAY…
I Have SPOKEN!
guru – Actually you have WRITTEN!
So it shall be written, so it shall be done!!!
Okay Breslow. Time to do something. This topic died.
Create a new one by signing ‘Moto
DBH and Fever – Did you see the Chourio potential deal? $82MM for 8 years with some buy outs along the way by the club.
Based on the new CBA Chourio will be pre-arb 1 in 2024, then arb-1 to arb = 4 in 2027 to 2030 and he’s a free agent in year 8.which is 2031.
Milwaukee pays him $80MM so he has money in his pocket immediately which is a good thing for the player but they didn’t include enough FA years to make this deal a good one for MIL.
From a financial perspective it makes far more sense to me to do the 8 year contract when he goes from pre-arb to arbitration. That way four years of FA time is included to keep the player in house 4 years beyond his initial control years. The current contract only gets ONE year of free agency money in it.
So if he is paid less than $1MM for 2024 to 2026 then in 2027 arbitration jumps his salary significantly to $8MM to $10MM in 2028, it jumps to $10MM to $12MM by 2029,it’s $18MM to $20MM and in his last year of control it’s $27MM similar to Mookie’s years if he close to as good as Mookie. The 7 year NORMAL total would be roughly $70MM for the 7 controllable years. This deal buy one more year for roughly $10MM more rather than $30MM that he would have gotten in free agency. So basically you get ONE year at a very good rate for a superstar and then he leaves but you have him from ages 20 to 27 and his prime years are elsewhere.
Personally, that’s a stupid deal from a MIL perspective. Why not give him a 1 time $10MM bonus in 2024 so he can buy his mom a house and have walking around money and pay the guy less than $1M for 3 pre-arb years. Then with so much more known about his long term performance upside offer him a 10 year deal that takes him from 23 to 32 at $25MM to $30MM a year depending on how much he accomplishes during his first 3 years? To me, that makes more sense because if he is great you have him 3 more years until he’s on the downward side of his career AND you can do this in two contracts rather than 1 because 2 allows the one time bonus to only be in 2024 not raising his AAV and then the second contract establishes an AAV of 25MM to $30MM based on his performance in his next 3 years. With such a tight budget in MIL if they ever get in a cash flow crunch they can move a superstar contract that is only $25MM to $30MM to a big market team. If they keep him he spends almost all of his highly productive years in Milwaukee.
It’s a win-win for MIL and Chourio. The current deal to me favors Chourio but it does protect MIL if he’s a bust.
What do you guys think?
Agreed. Heck with the hiuse. Min is almost a mil. If he can’t down payment with a mil, he isn’t very bright.
I get the extending arbitration players. But now the pendulum is swing the other way to sillyville!
TF – Excellent post, I completely agree!
Wait? All 3 of us agree???
Maaaannnn. No fun, see you guys I. The other topics!