Pirates right-hander Johan Oviedo was known to be undergoing tests for a serious arm injury, and the specifics of the injury are now known, as reporter Francys Romero (via X) writes that Oviedo will undergo Tommy John surgery. Oviedo will miss all of the 2024 season, but given the usual 12-14 months associated with recovery, should hopefully be ready to return to a big league mound by Opening Day 2025.
Losing an entire season is a tough setback for Oviedo, who posted solid numbers for the Pirates in his full season as a Major League starter. Oviedo started 26 of his 40 Major League appearances with the Cardinals and Pirates in 2020-22, though had mostly been relegated to bullpen work in St. Louis before the Bucs acquired him at the 2022 trade deadline. Oviedo started all seven of his games for Pittsburgh post-trade, setting the table for a semi-breakout year this past season.
Oviedo (who turns 26 in March) had a 4.31 ERA, as well as a 20.2% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate that were both well below the league average. On the plus side, his 44.9% grounder rate was more than decent, and Oviedo’s 177 2/3 frames ranked him within the top 30 in innings pitched last year. This durability was a huge help on Pittsburgh’s overall young and shaky pitching staff, and it made Oviedo essentially the No. 2 starter behind Mitch Keller.
Pittsburgh was already looking to add pitching heading into the winter, ideally landing at least one veteran arm that could push Oviedo to the middle or even the back end of the rotation. Unfortunately, he’s now out of the 2024 plans altogether, leaving the Bucs in even greater need of starting help. Keller, Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, and former first-rounder Quinn Priester are probably the Pirates’ starting five if the season began today, though some upgrades are certainly needed to bolster this largely unproven group. Of course, payroll is always a concern for the Pirates, so the search for arms might be limited to perhaps one notable veteran on a multi-year (as in two or at most three years) deal, and then lower-cost veterans on one-year pacts or minor league deals.
The Cuban-born Oviedo was an international signing for the Cardinals in 2016, and worked his way up the ladder for some big league action despite some less-then-stellar numbers in the minors. Oviedo has a 5.37 ERA over 115 2/3 career innings at Triple-A and even a 5.65 ERA in 113 Double-A frames, as quite a few walks offset some solid strikeout numbers. Those control problems have continued into Oviedo’s time in the majors, yet even settling into a role as a back-end starter who can eat innings can make for steady work.
The question now is whether or not Oviedo will be able to retain his durability after this major arm surgery. While plenty of pitchers have returned from Tommy John procedures no worse for wear, there is always a threat that more elbow problems could arise in the future, which could impact Oviedo’s ability to stick as a starting pitcher. Losing a year will already have an adverse effect on his earning power, as Oviedo will now be in line for a pretty low salary when he becomes arbitration-eligible for the first time next winter.
Hopefully he gets back to where he was
He pitched 177.2 innings last year, prior to that his career max was 62.1 innings pitched. So can’t be surprised by this news.
Hope he recovers well and is ready to go in 2025.
What a dumb statement, minor league innings don’t count
Yep… over 100 innings as a 20 & 21 year old in the Cards system.
More like the guy throwing more innings than he was used to throwing and his elbow gave out, but then again, plenty of relievers had their elbows go out as well.
Wasn’t used to throwing that amount? We’ve NEVER seen a reliever get Tommy John? This is not an innings problem. Plus, you do not know how many innings he threw prior to his pro career.
We have entered the time period where 177 innings over 162 game schedule is too much of a workload! God forbid we look at other reasons.
If going from 118 to 177 caused TJ oh well. Would probably have needed it soon anyways. Rather him lose a year to TJ then spend 2 or 3 or 4 years slowly building him up adding 10 to 20 innings each year. Even then not like it guarantees no TJ. Probably irrelevant or not a significant enough risk decrease to matter.
adj, what does “minor league innings don’t count” mean?
A dumb statement is saying he wasn’t ready for the workload. If he wasn’t ready, then question his preparation last offseason into spring. We can also call pitchers highly overpaid if 177 innings is too much to handle.
His career max was 146.2 in 2019. In 2022, he pitched 117.1 innings, and in 2021, he threw 118.2 innings beteen the minor leagues and Majors.
Learn to pitch instead of trying to throw 105-MPH all the time. Problem solved.
Such a bunch of BS. I guarantee you he’s been pitching 150+ innings every year since he has been old enough to step on a mound.
Minor league innings + Major league innings = Total innings.
Yup, too many innings. It’s not rocket science.
That sucks for Buc fans. I know they are expecting to take a huge step this year.
I think they need 3 SP now.
I think they are a WC in a Cease trade. Maybe gettin him in a package with Andrew Vaughn.
Seems like a move the pirates won’t make. They haven’t seemed to turn the corner just yet to start trading away quality prospects for a pitcher with two years of control left. More likely they shop in the one year bounce back bend.
Agreed maybe someone like Thor or Dakota Hudson,Jack Flaherty type who could go for a 1 year deal and hope for a rebound and better bargaining position next off season.
Yes indeed, get that call to Thor ASAP. Perfect scenario for him!!!
Thor is more done than a Thanksgiving turkey that’s still in the oven today.
Let Cohen waste his money on Thor’s washed up right arm.
I agree they will make a couple of those bounce back signings. But I think they could make that move for Cease because he has 2 years of control left.
They definitely want to make a move in a division that is ripe for the taking.
Totally agree.
Sign a mid-tier FA SP for 2/3 years and trade for another quality starter with two or more years of control
The Bucs should have at least $30m per season available for pitching after signing a low-tier first baseman.
Ripe for the taking? You need to get real. Even if they were all healthy the Pirates are at best the 4th best team in the division. And maybe 5th depending on what the Cardinals do. The Cubs , Brewers and Reds are all better. If the Reds manage to not run their young P’s into the hospital like they usually do they’re way better. The Cubs will spend, The Brewers have a great Farm system and players to build around in the Majors already and then there’s the Pirates. Look you have few good players and some coming but up and down the organization you don’t spend and run arms into the ground just like the Reds trying for miracles. I don’t give Skenes much of a chance to stay healthy the next couple of years. Ripe for the taking? Maybe if you got an owner who cares maybe.
Yep, agreed to a point I don’t see a great deal of difference between them, the Marlins, Reds or Cubs. Does this justify spending on 2-3 starting pitchers—to compete for a wild card? I don’t think so
I’m not enamored by the Brewers but they’re a cut above at this point
I have to laugh about the idea of “spending”. The Cardinals have a long way to go and sure looked like a last place team all season. They’ve already spent on Arenado and Goldie so they’d better pull out that checkbook and spend until it hurts. And the Cubs? They lost Bellinger and still have a nice core. Great. Just who are they going to bring in to replace him and a couple starting pitchers?
The Cubs haven’t lost Bellinger yet and I’m not worried if they do because they have the farm system and money to replace him if need be. There is still so much that the Cubs can do it boggles the mind . They can trade, Spend, Spend on pitching, Trade for pitching, It’s all open right now. The one thing I’m sure of though is that Bellinger won’t be playing for anyone else in the division because they won’t even consider spending more than ten bucks.
I like the young Cubs players. Again, a testament to how poorly the Pirates player development department comes by watching young players evolve elsewhere
They “can” spend, spend and spend but where pitching is concerned, they haven’t done so in some time.
And you’re being very optimistic where Bellinger is concerned
Not a big deal. Tons of free agents left. Plenty of $ to spend. Plenty of prospects to trade. Plenty of prospects ready to get mlb look.
Central will come down to injuries and depth. Cubs and their market size advantage are the only significantly better team.
Right now Nutting is counting how much money he’s stealing from Revenue Sharing and figuring out his Greens Fees, Club membership, Gardener, Butler and Maid, You know the expenses he cares about. I guarantee you the last thing on his mind is spending money on FA’s.
He isn’t thinking about any of those things. He has people for that. His front office will do the free agent signings. Nutting hasn’t failed yet to authorize whatever $ is needed. If he doesn’t this time it will be the first.
They have the potential of taking a big step if Cherington follows through on his word that he would be active in the free agent market and trading but thus far all he has managed is signing an outfielder to a minor league contract
They need starting pitchers and a first baseman
Knowing how this organization works, he’ll sign has beens and nobodies
That sucks. Best of luck Johan.
Oviedo DID NOT make the pirates opening day roatation. He was beat out by vince Velasquez for the #5 spot. He was a pleasant surprise this year but hasn’t been a rotation fixture for long.
Oviedo did make the Pirates’ Opening Day rotation. He started their 4th game of the year against the Boston Red Sox and made 32 total appearances, tied with a few other pitchers for the second most games started last year. He won the rotation spot almost by default because JT Brubaker underwent Tommy John surgery in March.
You’re right it was Brubaker not Velasquez
In a perfect setting, the Pirates are on the cusp of contending for a wild card berth of even the NL Central crown as their youthful core played well down the stretch last year
What a monkey wrench the starting pitching major surgeries place in that scenario
Interesting crossroads. Spend on a couple starters to complement Keller—upper tier types and perhaps another Rich Hill variety—-or instead go with something of the Hill/Keuchel/Carasco etc variety and hope for the best until Brubaker, Burrows, VV come back mid season and/or some of the young guns on the farm jump up?
I’m betting on the latter, that they look at ‘24 as a season to mature and get healthy to push for it in ‘25
Operative word is “ spend “, something that is unlikely to happen
Their current 2024 payroll is $53 million, add in arbitration and you’re looking at around $62 million at best.
I have been a Pirate fan since 1966, and I’m tired of hearing about next year because next year never happens
That said, regardless of who is signed or traded for, this will be a make or break season for Shelton and Cherington.
Last off-season, they added about $37 million via free agent signings and trade acquisitions. I have faith that they’ll spend about the same amount, maybe slightly more (like $40 million) this off-season. No reason to cut off-season spending at this point.
The problem with your stat is that in this era, $37M is largely “chump change”. I mean, they’re talking about Ohtani getting a $500M contract? The world has gone crazy
I know you realize this and yes, I’m talking the polar opposite in extremes of course
I agree that they’ll spend but they must have great pause in all of this. Surgically repaired pitchers coming back at some point, young studs showing signs of being ready….I understand TheMan3’s point as I have been a fan about as long, but their reluctance to over-spend on pitching when they will likely have a glut of pitching by late summer actually is understandable, no?
I guess what I’m saying is, these injuries likely set their timeline of competing back a year but it also affords them the opportunity to watch players like Cruz, Endy, Davis, whomever plays 2nd mature and evolve
I just don’t see them deciding to look into the second tier of available pitchers with all of this in mind
I know, but $40 million for the Pirates is a sizeable amount. I’m feeling they’ll go toward the trade market more, and add via that more than FA. Mighs sign a mid-tier pitcher like Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, or someone of that caliber, but I have a feeling that most of their efforts are going to go towrad the trade market.
Looks like you’re right, a lot of young pitching on the way
37m is plenty. 5m won’t be needed for catcher like last year. Attendance went up last year. As long as they are active in free agency and or trades attendance will go up again. They could have spent more than 37m last year so it’s not the ceiling. Depending on tv deal they can spend 100m to 120m on payroll I figure.
But why would they at this point?
They currently have 1 starter in all reality. Come mid summer, they’ll have a plethora of starters, one would think. The question is…do they really think they are that close to contending to warrant rental arms that may or may not pan out? And add to this the ideas about Cruz at short, no real 1st baseman or right fielder and a battle for 2nd base
I like the upside of this young team
I just think that this particular injury is one which makes them really examine how they spend or trade
Fast forward a year where the team is healthy and the young gun pitchers are ready. Just seems to me that this is going to be their thinking
A couple Rich Hill-like signings is my prediction. Place holders for the season
only once has this ownership spent more than $100 years in payroll.
Once in the 18 years he’s owned the franchise
Chances of Nutting allowing Cherington to almost double the current payroll is between slim and none
Spent 100 3 times. 98 99 and change is same as 100. Would have spent 100 more but there was no need to. Instead of hiring fans who want Mr Nutting to be just like them with no $ in their savings, living pay check to paycheck with credit card debt Mr Nutting hires people who sign Marte Cutch to insane team friendly extensions and gets elite pitching out of guys like Liriano Burnett for a fraction of the price other teams pay.
1 starter is all they need. They have enough guys that it’s not awful to have a battle for the 5th starter. 1 year rentals are a great thing. I hope they sign nothing but 1 year rentals because they are cheap, hungry to improve so they can get more $ and years next year and by signing one that says the Pirates have a plan to improve them and the pitcher thinks that plan will work. As i said below RF 1b 2b SS are already filled. If they add it’s just icing on the cake.
Keller. One starter is all they *have. (Italicize that). Apparently you are counting Ortiz and Priester as starters…or perhaps Falter…when all were beyond the idea of “iffy” last season.
Disagree completely
You also state (below) that the rebuild is over. Again, disagree. Granted, they have improved but there are far too many question marks to deem “mission accomplished”
That is, of course, unless vying for a .500 record denotes that you’ve rebuilt the program
3/4 of the infield is a question mark
1/3 of the outfield is the same and that’s conceding the idea that Suwinski will improve at the plate
We’ve discussed pitching but 3 starters are coming off of TJ and 1 will do the same in ‘25. There is no guarantee that any will regain form
And you have a number of good young starters that will have to demonstrate they are ready for the majors in the next year or so
I guess you and I have different ideas of rebuilds being accomplished. The D-backs can say such a thing as can the Rangers, obviously
The Pirates? Not so much. Not yet anyway
They offered Mitch Keller one of those “ team friendly “ contracts last year and he refused so there’s no guarantee that other players will sign like Cutch and Marte have in the past
They signed 5 significant free agents last year. One never pitched during regular season, one got hurt and never pitched again, 3 were traded at the deadline for prospects
This is a recurring theme and if they aren’t in serious contention next year we can expect the same thing happening
Yeah, and really they are in the same position where pitching is concerned. And 1st base, as well
I’m at a loss as to how anyone says “the rebuild is over”. I can remember the last true rebuild, when Cutch, Walker and other young players began to show their abilities and were completed by adding some solid vets
That rebuild was complete
This one has a way to go
Never said rebuild was successful. Just that it was over. They will either start winning or it will be a new gm and new rebuild.
Keller will either extend or hopefully traded. Settling for a comp pick won’t be ideal but a option. Can’t extend everyone so move on to someone else.
You mean between slim and Nutting.
It doesn’t have to be one of the other. They should be better in 2024, but I don’t see them competing for the playoffs until 2025, at which point the rebuild may finally be over without starting a new one.
Agree with most of what Dream says – but one starter will not be enough.
Is there depth at catching in the minors? Davis, Endy and Delay. Davis caught zero games last year and also spent time on the IL.
Injuries happen so it might be wise to sign one to a minor league contract
Right now you have Joe penciled in at first base. He’s a defensive liability at first base. First baseman are historically power hitters, Joe certainly isn’t one.
But he’s cheap so there’s no need to sign s free agent first baseman
And at the rate free agent contracts are going, signing even 2 middle tier pitchers will likely cost more than the $40 million some have suggested they would spend
I find it odd that Cherington repeatedly notes that they “want to get Davis more catching ops” in his latest interviews. That his bat had progressed more than his glove
How does this make sense? He was the number 1 pick in all of baseball
On top of that, you had the entire second half of the season to get an opp or two. Or more
I dunno. To me, this is the recipe for wrecking a young player by messing with his head and pushing him to play a new position. Ok, Endy is better but Endy also played some 1st in the minors. Seems that creative lineups could have provided the best of all worlds with Delay as your late inning defensive replacement.
Or does this just mean they didn’t like Davis’s progress in RF?
1 starter is enough because they can sign or trade for 2 or 3 more. Highly unlikely they are making 20 million a year. I expect maybe 1 trade and 2 bounce backs on 1 year under 10m deals.
They have catching depth in minors and can always sign some more.
Joe Triolo are penciled in as backups. I have whatever free agent they sign to play 1b as starter.
I don’t know anything about catching on an advanced level. But what I do know from throwing to them and watching baseball at no point has Davis looked like a mlb catcher. Seems he would need to make some major improvement this winter. No idea how he would do this. No idea why they didn’t let him catch more last year. Scouts and teams didn’t think he would make it as a starting catcher when he was available to draft or during the minors.
Mister-Or it could mean that he realized that he had made a colossal blunder on his first big test as a GM.
We have a Mendoza sighting! Thought it would take a signing or trade to bring you out. Pirates might not have had much of a choice in taking Davis. Not the dream destination for baseball players. Pick was more about getting the extra 1st round pitching talent.
Dream-Mendoza is an old man who sometimes needs rest.
You young guys also have many more than the six bytes of memory that I have left.
You had mentioned the Davis philosophy several years ago and I understand the reasoning behind low balling him and providing enough money to get a couple of good young pitching prospects from the draft.
But the Pirates badly needed a catcher at that point and he was advertised accordingly at that time especially from his four year college career.You are the poster claiming that he is a lost cause at catching.All I am saying is that he should play in AAA for half a year to let the guy settle into one main position.
I personally think that he could become a decent right fielder and emergency catcher.I love that arm in right field which is the best since Dave Parker on the Pirates.
Dream- I think that Davis was acclaimed as a hitter but it seems to me that if he was as low in estimation as a catcher as you say that the Pirates could have taken a multitude of other fine prospects and still had money for the additional pitchers,
I think that it is highly embarrassing if Davis does not work out as a fine player as the ML draft should no longer be a crapshoot.
@Mendoza They liked his bat and I can see why. Only other options imo were 2 hs ss. I can imagine them wanting more or not wanting to sign at all so they might not have been on the table.
Bat is main thing. Passable rf would be nice. Catcher better but i don’t see it. I don’t know what can be done to improve so much a catcher of his age. I’m not a catching guru though.
Dream- I think that what you are saying is that Davis and two high school shortstops are the only choices that really stood out as first class prospects and the shortstops would not have had to lose a year if they did not sign.
Your comment on Davis is probably correct as he has to be 25 years old now.
Thanks for the explanation.
They will sign and or trade for enough starters with plans to be in rotation the entire year. The TJ guys and prospects will back fill the injuries. The 6 7 starters will backfill injuries until June 20 something.
Not sure this fits with the Pirates fiscal realities and certainly not something we’ve seen here. I hope you’re right but you’re basically saying they’re going to go all-in with the idea of trying to compete this year by adding 3 rentals.
I think I’d be inclined to agree if we were more sure about Cruz and they were more solid where several positions are concerned. Again, hope you’re right
I’m of the belief however that signing a pitcher or two that also incorporates Shelton’s “reliever game starts” that amazingly was successful last season is how they’ll proceed at first
This is an owner who has the money but needs real justification to spend it
With or without Cruz they will try to contend. Rebuild is over. They have momentum and have to keep it up. This front office has 2 years left to win. Every position is filled other than starting pitching.
LF Reynolds Palacios Suwinski
CF Suwinski Bae Reynolds
RF Joe Cutch Davis Palacios
3b Hayes Triolo
SS Williams Peguero
2b Peguero Triolo Gonzales Bae
1b Any of the cheap options Joe
C Rodriguez Delay Davis
It’s still too soon to go all in. They can probably sign one good pitcher to a long term deal this offseason and fill the rest of the spots with low end rentals while their core continues to develop to finish around .500 next year. Then in 2025, Oviedo will be back, and they’ll be ready to be aggressive enough to fill the remaining holes to jump into playoff contention.
@DreamGm…. what’s your opinion on signing Cutch at $5-10m?
I don’t see how he fits with the money now needed for SP’s and DH at-bats for the non-starting catcher plus rest days for Cruz, Reynolds etc. A no-field 105wRC+ guy at DH is a thing of the past, right?
Cutch wants to come back and Cherington wants him too, Williams isn’t ready for major league pitching so he should start the season in the minors
Williams is an oddity, a right handed hitter who can’t hit lefty pitching
Cutch’s presence helps to put fans in the stands, as noted from last year’s attendance increase of about 5 million more fans attending home games
He’ll be back
Add to this the fact that Cutch is still productive at the plate. Compare him with Suwinski who yes, hits more homers but is just not the dangerous hitter Cutch is with runners on base. How do you not bring him back?
Cutch also draws more than his share of walks, a stat this free swinging group lacks
5 million more… you sure about that?
@ Terrier If healthy Cutch will be back for that price. Even if he can only dh I think he will. If his shoulder is healthy he can still play RF at PNC. They won’t even look at his wrc. They want the 378 obp, the amount of pitches he takes, his leadership, and the pr marketing he provides. Thankfully he loves Pittsburgh and even 10m would be a bargain.
Delay won’t be dh ing and I will believe Davis is a starting catcher when I see it. They better find him some catching whisperer and he better work his tail off. I would settle for his bat being good enough to dh at this point. He certainly isn’t a natural in the outfield. If he could somehow learn to play a passable outfield that is bonus.
Terrier-More or less!
I’ll take the less.
Probably about 5-10% of that number.
Cutch will be back as long as he proves physically able in spring trading.
Cherington is wisely holding onto his spot on the 40 man roster until the end of spring training so that he can begin to use the IL placements on the roster to open up spaces.
I’m absolutely positive about the attendance increase
kwERA of 4.247631242 and a GB% of 45.9%, the calculated GBkwERA is approximately 4.116.
Serviceable 4th or 5th starter. All the best in his recovery.
Tough break for the young man. Hopefully Nutting has been putting those profits in an escrow account for use this year to acquire 3 proven SP’s this winter. But I’m not holding my breath.
No need. Normal yearly operating cost will cover the pitching they are likely to go after.
Rebuilds are not over until there is a consistent winning team.The last Pirates one took 20 years.A record of 76-86 just means that they were not terrible.
The problem now is that there are too many teams that need starting pitching because arm injuries have now become so commonplace.
This injury means that Shelton will have to work his magic with 3 inning starters and Cherington will have to find three starters instead of two.None of the young starters are ready.
My estimated record of 83-79 is now a maximum that they can achieve.They may very well end up stagnating for another year like they did in 21-22.
They need to find set positions for too many players and improved fundamentals across the board and that may be too much to ask for in one year.
Exactly. This is only common sense
I won’t make a prediction until they’re in spring training but again, I’m betting they fill their starting pitcher with lower tier starters that are available to go with Keller and augment it with a reliever game or two every 5 starts
They’ll hope for the best, allow the young guys to further mature and finally find solutions for these open positions. Guess that’s where I see them going
Well, the Pirates weren’t likely to compete until at least 2025 anyway, and this at least saves them some money during Oviedo’s upcoming arbitration years.
Every year I hear the same thing, they won’t be competitive until “ choose a year “ and every year they say the same thing
Good pitching wins games and the Pirates do not have any in 2024. Mitch Keller is spoty at best. He is probably a 3 or maybe a 2 at best. It is time time to regroup and find out who wants to play while injuries heal. It looks like a 65 win season..
Exactly right. Keller is the ace here and had a great first half. But he went through starts where he was again throwing fastballs dead red and had no control of spin pitches resulting in giving up runs. Yeah, you want to keep him but to say all they need is one solid pitcher and voila, they’ll compete is ridiculous
Shelton also misused Keller in those games where he was getting beat up
I recall several times Shelton would leave him in after giving up 5-7 runs. It’s not as if we had the offense to come back
If Cherington does not get at least two good retread starters and the hitters do not clearly advance and they play better fundamental baseball then 65 wins is not out of the realm of possibility,even in the mediocre Central Division,
I think at that point that Shelton has to go even though his pitching staff is running on fumes.
I think that it is quite possible that Shelton agreed on coming aboard that the front office was going to dictate lineups and even relief pitching changes.It seems that many young managers are stuck with that scenario in order to get hired.
That may be one of the reasons that Cherington has been loath to make a change.If he does he knows that he is next.
The lack of starting pitching would ruin any manager’s job.It is a shame that the small market teams especially are hurt by a lack of depth.
It only goes to prove that unless you are the Rays,Dodgers,Guardians,or Braves who do have pitching pipelines you have to be very good otherwise to consistently win in the ML’s unless you have an owner who will spend and spend and spend.
Mendoza, those teams you mentioned also have good player development whereas we don’t
well thats a bummer, is good enough to be the fifth/sixth starter on many teams.. which would be number two in Pittsburgh.
He gets playing time because there is no one else better. Being essentially number two behind Mitch shows to go you how bad our rotation is. He did start a lot of games and did eat 170ish innings so that is something to talk about.
hopefully 2025 he comes back strong.
Oviedo was a reasonably good #4,swinging between a 2 and a 6.
Keller was a decent #3,swinging between a 1 and a 5.
Neither of these guys was a picture of consistency.
Both are still young and can get better.