Giants Interested In Matt Chapman

The Giants are interested in free agent Matt Chapman, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though he adds that the Blue Jays “are making a big push to keep” the third baseman.

Chapman, 31 in April, has been a speculative fit for the Giants this offseason for a few reasons. For one thing, the club’s new manager Bob Melvin was the skipper in Oakland while Chapman was there. Beyond that, it’s widely believed that the Giants are planning to add a star player or two this winter after just missing on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa a year ago.

The Giants have also had some question marks around their defense in recent years, which happens to be Chapman’s specialty. After winning 107 games in 2021, the club fell to .500 in 2022, with glovework seeming to play a role in that. The club was collectively graded as being worth -53 Defensive Runs Saved that year, the worst mark in the majors, while their tally of -33 Outs Above Average was third worst. In 2023, they got the OAA into the top 10 but their DRS was still in the bottom third, which perhaps helped contribute to another underwhelming season.

Chapman has been one of the best defensive third basemen in the league during his career, having current counts of 92 DRS and 53 OAA since his 2017 debut. The former number is tops in the majors during that time frame while the latter number is second only to Nolan Arenado.

His bat has been a bit less consistent, particularly in 2023. He finished the season with a batting line of .240/.330/.424 and a wRC+ of 110, though in fairly uneven fashion, having high highs and low lows throughout the year. Some have framed his year as a scorching hot April followed by five tepid months, but Chapman was also quite strong in July, hitting .247/.402/.506 that month for a wRC+ of 154.

On August 13, when Chapman hurt his finger in a weight room incident, he was slashing .255/.346/.449 on the year for a wRC+ of 121, which was fairly in line with his 118 wRC+ from the year before. He tried playing through the finger issue, even going on the injured list for a time, but hit just .163/.250/.302 the rest of the way, diminishing his full season production.

Blaming the injury might be a charitable way to look at things but it stands to reason that the club that signs Chapman is probably going to be one that looks on him favorably and is more willing to overlook the final weeks of the 2023 campaign. His 28.4% strikeout rate for the year gives some pause but optimists can look to his 10.7% walk rate and bloody Statcast metrics. MLBTR predicted Chapman to get a contract of six years and $150MM.

The Giants used J.D. Davis as their primary third baseman in 2023 and he can be retained for one more season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $6.8MM in 2024. He had a fine season, hitting 18 home runs and slashing .248/.325/.413 for a wRC+ of 104. Hitting has always been his forte, with his defense more questionable. DRS continued to frown on him in 2023, giving him a grade of -11 for the year, pushing his career mark to -38. OAA gave him a +5 on the year but his career tally is still just -7.

Davis is a perfectly serviceable player at the hot corner but Chapman would clearly be an upgrade. If the Giants were able to get a deal done with Chapman, Davis would still have a bit of trade value given his modest salary, perhaps allowing the Giants to put him on the market and bolster their roster elsewhere.

Fitting Chapman onto the Jays’ roster is perhaps an easier fit, since he could just slot back into his old spot. The Jays are known to be looking for multiple position players in order to upgrade their lineup this winter, which could include a Chapman reunion. The club already offered him an extension at some point, though Chapman turned it down. But they are also looking into Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and others. Candelario, in particular, would likely be a backup plan for the event that they don’t retain Chapman. Candelario is also a third baseman but doesn’t have the same track record as Chapman, thus leading to a lesser contract projection of four years and $70MM.

As mentioned, the Giants are clearly looking for a significant upgrade this winter, having been connected to big names like Ohtani, Bellinger, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and others. Chapman is on the list as well but they figure to be competing with the Jays and other clubs for many of the same targets.

Both clubs seem to have some powder dry for such pursuits. Roster Resource currently pegs the Giants’ payroll at $147MM next year. They have been in the $200MM range in the past, giving them plenty of room to work with. If their desire for star player additions this winter is as strong as suspected, perhaps they are willing to push that and therefore have even more room. The Jays are at $205MM for next year, per RR, but with a larger arbitration class and a few non-tenders could give them some more breathing space. Their competitive balance tax calculation is currently estimated at $216MM, with next year’s base threshold at $237MM. The Jays were willing to pay the tax last year club president/CEO Mark Shapiro has suggested the payroll situation should be in roughly similar range to 2023.