Aaron Nola’s new deal with the Phillies is the winter’s biggest free agent headline to date, as Nola returned to Philadelphia for seven years and $172MM. Reports filtered in that the Braves also had significant interest in Nola, and that the right-hander turned down larger offers in order to remain with his longtime team, and the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber shed some light on those other suitors in a piece from earlier this week.
The Dodgers were another major bidder, Lauber writes, with the specific phrasing that Los Angeles “put a finger on the scale at $165MM.” It isn’t exactly clear from this wording whether or not the Dodgers perhaps just floated this figure or if they made a formal offer to Nola’s representatives, yet it is fair to assume the latter is true given the seemingly quick timeline of events, considering that the Phillies and Braves were both bidding hard and Nola wanted to decide sooner rather than later about his future.
As for other teams, Atlanta made a starting offer of $162MM over six years, and then made a final offer worth presumably more. Beyond the Braves and Dodgers, the Phillies thought more team were also involved in the Nola sweepstakes, “with at least one other club offering more” than Philadelphia’s $172MM.
Naturally it isn’t at all surprising that Nola drew such high-dollar interest, given his status as one of the top free agents available in this offseason’s market. MLBTR ranked Nola fifth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract. He ended up getting more overall money than our projection, if less of an average annual value stretched out over a seventh year of a contract, yet the Phillies’ ability to just get close to comparable offers from other teams was enough to seal the deal. “Nola strongly preferred staying with the Phillies, and his agent Joe Longo let it be known that $172 million would get it done,” Lauber writes.
Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos typically likes to make most of his bigger moves earlier in the offseason, and that trend has continued. The bullpen has been a major early focus, as Reynaldo Lopez was just signed to a three-year deal worth at least $30MM in guaranteed money, and Atlanta retained Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson before free agency officially opened. The Braves were also very aggressive in cutting down their list of arbitration-eligible players, with a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders that ultimately shaved a decent chunk of money off the payroll.
The exact size of that 2024 payroll and what Anthopoulos has to work with isn’t yet known, leading to quite a bit of speculation about what exactly the Braves are planning. Obviously landing Nola would have taken up a big portion (if not all) of whatever payroll space Atlanta has left, and the Braves are already on pace to top their team-record $203MM payroll from last year. The Braves are also set to surpass the luxury tax threshold for the second consecutive year, which adds another interesting wrinkle — signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like Nola would’ve cost the Braves two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus money as compensation.
Under Anthopoulos, the Braves have usually made measured strikes in the free agent market. Most of Anthopoulos’ biggest moves have been trades, with his free agent signings usually limited to veterans on one-year or two-year deals (if at a high average annual value). Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal from the 2020-21 is far and away the biggest contract Anthopoulos has given to a free agent, and Nola’s contact would’ve drastically exceeded Ozuna’s number.
While the Dodgers are no stranger to big-money deals, it is worth noting that Nola at a $165MM price tag would’ve also represented the biggest free agent contract of Andrew Friedman’s tenure running the L.A. front office. Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162MM pact from the 2021-22 offseason is the current benchmark, and the fact that Los Angeles was willing to spend so much on Nola is an early sign of how aggressive the team plans to be this winter.
Signing the durable Nola would’ve been a huge help to a Dodgers rotation that is lacking in experience, as the team is expected to add two or three pitchers to the group via free agency and trades. This is alongside the Dodgers’ other big pursuit of the winter, as Los Angeles is seen as one of the favorites — if perhaps the favorite — to sign Shohei Ohtani to what will almost surely be the biggest guaranteed contract in baseball history. The Dodgers may be way under the luxury tax threshold for now, but with Ohtani’s situation, severe pitching needs, and some other roster holes to be addressed, L.A. doesn’t appear to have any reservations over surpassing the tax for the fourth straight year.
One team absent from Nola’s market was Boston, as the Red Sox “weren’t meaningfully involved in bidding,” according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. This tracks with reports from mid-November suggesting that while the Sox were interested in a top-tier starting pitching addition, Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were the team’s preferred options ahead of Nola and Blake Snell.
the Red Sox “weren’t meaningfully involved in bidding,”
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As a Red Sox fan — Good, Yamamoto or Montgomery.
As a Yankees fan I hope the Sox don’t get Monty.
as a yankees fan I don’t want monty, I like him as a pitcher and thought that the yankees made a horrible trade at the time of trading him. It’s just that he’s not worth 25 mil a year. It’ll be better to pursue yamamoto who might get 25 mil a year, is younger, and will most likely be better than monty. Why not go for yamamoto instead?
I think the Yankees need to look elsewhere for pitching. They obviously couldn’t get the most out of Monty. But as someone who really likes Monty, I just don’t want him going to Boston.
But Yamamoto will end up costing more than Monty I think. First off, he’s going to want 30M per year over who knows how many years. Then there is the posting fee to consider. That’s a lot of money for a pitcher who had never thrown a ball in MLB. I know he owned Japan but its a big change of leagues.
Remember, it’s true he hasn’t pitched in mlb. But absolutely every single talking head says he’s going to be a dominant beast. I know I’m whistling in the wind but would love the Phillies to also get him. You never have enough arms.
That was one of the worst Yankees trades and they usually don’t have bad trades but trading Monty was not a good trade for them
I hope Boston Will get Montgomery plus Stroman , trade Verdugo for Torres, bring back Duvall
RS4Life- I like your ideas but I would rather have Wacha than Stromen.
Stroman will certainly be overpaid, while Wacha will be fairly paid, or perhaps underpaid. I think they will put up comparable numbers…
This dude is so average, he was probably discovered in the middle of the road. $172 million? seriously? This is becoming obscene…
I have monty to the sox, but a lot of teams after him
The Red Sox and the Doyers and the Braves are gonna be glad they missed out on him in 3 years. He is a great pitcher and has had a great career. In 3 years (with 4 more years in that contract) the wheels will be coming off.
I really thought they would have come in for Nola and Yamamoto. Just to have a proven veteran at the top of the rotation to take pressure off Bello so he could slide into the 2 or 3 role.
If the Red Sox don’t get two decent starting pitchers they are going to struggle again. They will tease but this is looking like the mid-90’s again.
Red Sox will be in on a proven veteran starter, just not Nola. Nola has not been a consistent ace over the past 3 years (since covid). He’s a dangerous long-term commitment. IMO.
Could wish u had Nola on ur team in cpl months frm now … Yamamoto goin to big city team that wins. Financial constraints was how Bosox GM job offer came. Best bet is loadup on buncha nice AAAA guys n hope u find gem. Now if u only had the player personel guys who could develop that talent. Sorry 2say seems the lavish lifestyles bills R coming due 4redsox n yanks n theyre fishing @quantity bargain bins. Those teams gona make boatload of money winner or loser.
If two of the best front offices in the game were willing to go above $160 million, you have to think the smarter PBoPs in the biz were satisfied with Nola’s projected durability and his ability to resist further decline of the kind we saw in his peripherals in 2022 and 2023.
Still, that’s a whopping lot of money for a guy with an ERA+ of 102 from 2021 through 2023.
The Phillies have a less than average defense and home is a hitters haven. Those two things will inflate any odes ERA.
I could be wrong didn’t he get off to a rough start and then turn it around in the second half?
@Simm 1st half: 4.39 ERA. 2nd 4.58 ERA —You might be thinking of his first 3 starts (7.04 ERA, but 3.58 FIP—otherwise his first half was respectable)
Yeah prob was after those first three starts. I don’t follow the Phillies all that much but I remember him getting off to a really bad start.
Small correction: A homerun haven, but not particularly a hitters haven. There’s no big gap for extra basehits which actually helps pitchers. Everything else is accurate though.
Still tied for 8th in park factor last three years though, so more of a hitters’ park than not.
Agreed. Hitters park for sure, and the power-heavy NLE lineups mash there.
@spudchukar
Nola, career:
Home 3.20 ERA
Away 4.25 ERA
(In radio announcer’s voice: “Small Sample Caveat’s Apply!”)
The media is begging for Ohtani to pick LAD. Hard to see why he’d wanna play there, though. Rooting for SF, Chicago, or Seattle.
Dodgers still stuck in your head huh?
The post mentions them. Hope this helps.
Mariners have one playoff appearance since 2001. Giants have done nothing in a decade. Cubs haven’t done anything since their 2016 title. What makes those teams so much better oh wise one
And LA hasn’t won anything legit since 1988. At least SF won 3 real rings across a 5 year span. Cry…
Yeah and then the Giants ran the manager who did it out of town and replaced their front office with the Dodgers GM. I’m sure Ohtani will want to join the team with one more playoff appearance than the Angels since he entered the league
SF has a brighter future…plus a much better park that doesn’t smell and look like a dumpster.
Bright future? Really? I’ll take LA’s farm nearly any decade.
Ohtani’s new contract will be an albatross as a player.
Has Angels written all over it.
The marketing of Shohei will however re coup a lot of value.
Dodgers, Mariners, Giants, Padres, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, sorry, I’d have a hard time convincing Shohei your teams are that much better. Especially moving forward.
Yamamoto is a much better investment for a forward looking team.
Dodgers going hard for Ohtani and throwing 165m at Nola!? Big offseason coming.
There biggest issue is pitching. Ohtani helps any team but him not being able to pitch this year and who knows going forward. Makes the dodgers pitching needs to priority number 1. Even over Ohtani.
Not sure any team investing a half-billion dollars over a decade or more is going to heavily weight 2024 short term needs over the totality of what a generational talent brings for the decade, both in terms of talent and revenue. As for specifically the Dodgers, they are going to add two starting pitchers in addition to Ohtani.
LOL
Details?
They fell short
End of story
as a Braves fan, this is highly illuminating as to the Braves’ payroll situation if true. The front office has said they focus on cash outlay per year (rather than AAV) when assessing the annual budget. Since losing out on Nola, the Braves have only committed $4M of 2024 spending (plus ~1M of luxury tax) in the Reynaldo Lopez signing. Doesn’t mean they necessarily want to spend on the remaining SP crop – maybe they were uniquely in on Nola’s combo of age, durability, potential ability to retain his stuff as he gets older – but their reported offer to Nola isn’t consistent with a team that’s currently near its budgetary limit.
The Dodgers should have signed him.
Summary: other teams offered him money. Philly who he is comfortable with and made two consecutive deep runs with offered him generational wealth and he happily accepted.
I will be surprised if we don’t see some key free agents off the board over the next week. Winter meetings could trigger trades so guys may want to sign before potential suitors pivot.
Ohtani and Yamamoto signing will be the big domino effect in free agency tho.
Braves need to sign Gray & Duvall
Extend Minter
Call it an off-season
It’s like the Cardinals, close but no cigar.
Well, if this report is true, it completely refutes yesterday’s speculative article that the Braves have reached their spending limit. I fully expect the Braves to go after another SP and a LF, fill out their bench and go past last year’s budget by tens of millions
SP should be a lock but I really don’t know about LF. If they do spend like we expect on a starter, they could go cheap in LF. Unless they include Grissom in a trade for a guy who can play LF every day, he could be the plan for now with a LH platoon.
Meanwhile, the Reds offered Nola $72 dollars for seven years.
But, they made Nola and his agent pay for lunch. So they came out net positive!
Joe Longo doing a fine job. Gets his man his preference, with the years he wanted, the dollars he thought he was worth and all the fan love in the world for taking a bit less. And got it done early. Give the man a prize. Nice effort.
Looks like the Braves do indeed have money to spend. What are you up to AA? You wascally wabbit…
Maybe Nola just likes being a Philly. and the 7/$172 is right there with the top bids.
After close to sixty years of being a Phillies fan, it is still kinda’ wild to try to adapt to seeing our team and our city as a top destination for players.
Yeah, I know that it doesn’t have the appeal of a few others out there for various reasons, but what has been created here is a real credit to ownership, to DD, the organization as a whole, and to Bryce & Company. And to the fanbase, which is showing the league that it really is a uniquely interesting and highly engaged base that players want to experience.- and not just when they are wearing body armor.
It has happened in the past. Roy Halliday wanted a trade to the Phillies, and Cliff Lee accepted less money to return to the Phillies.
Yes, but that time was so brief. I remember the sense of elation at that time that we were actually a place that players wanted to play, and then “poof”, that time was over in an eyeblink.
This feels much more sustainable, as Middleton has dramatically changed the ownership dynamic. Sure, he is a Main Line dude as well, but the stodgy old Phillies Way has been upended.
Looks like the top bid to me. 165m in California is much less than 165m in Pennsylvania. Braves were close but 10m for the extra year is worth it to me to stay in north east.
I’m glad we didn’t overpay for him.
Hard to imagine that these were the only three teams in on Nola. If he did turn down larger offers to stay with the Phils, then who was it that made those offers? Because the offers mentioned here from the Braves and Dodgers don’t really represent more money, or only do by just by a hair.
I’d be interested in knowing who else was in on him and making offers.
Well it said one other team that is unknown made an offer over 172.
I doubt anyone made a better offer. Most people work where they can make the most $. If he loved Philly so much why couldn’t they have got an extension done. The other team that offered more $ was offering more $ before taxes.
Prob because the Phillies weren’t offering as much before he became a free agent. The market set the price and the Phillies added more to their previous offer. He elected to stay, it’s not hard to believe
Well duh.
@geofft: Iirc, the Cards were also after Nola. Think I saw mention of that in an article on here in the last week or so.
I could see the cards or the giants.
It makes sense to give SP longterm deals when they’re as reliable as Wheeler/Nola. For roughly 300M Philly has an extremely reliable, durable #1 & #2.
Better get Wheeler done.
Save the money . Next year’s free agent starting class is stacked, especially if Cole opts out. No need to throw stupid money at a Sonny Gray type when you could save that budget to throw at a Buehler, Fried, Burnes, or a Wheeler type.
If caught throwing at them it might mean multi-game suspension, but if the stupid money offer was just an inside pitch that got away, there’s no reason to charge the pitcher, who’s protected by the FDIC anyway.
All the Yankees have to do is is add a year and Cole won’t be a free agent.
Teams aren’t going to punt on a year to wait until next season. Some of these guys could get extended before then as well.
Wait till Burnes hits the market, 40-45M a year over 7-8 years to be expected. He’ll get DeGrom money Boras will make sure of it
When you can point to only two guaranteed contracts of over $100M in ten years it doesn’t stand to reason that the team “is no stranger to big money deals.” In fact that team and big money deals have just barely met. The Dodgers as big spenders in free agency is a narrative that just refuses to die, no matter what actually happens.
Why are we still talking about this who cares he resigned focus on who can get now intead of rehashing this crap…
OF COURSE the Dodgers tried to buy Nola. Is there anyone those desperate pathetic pieces of garbage with the phoniest “fans” in baseball won’t try to purchase? Glad Nola stayed home with the Phillies. Good for the Braves for actually trying to spend for once, though.
🙁
Not sure this indicates how aggressive the Dodgers will be. So far, it’s typical Dodgers. Make an offer and get outbid and fail to get the player. I’d be convinced if they offered the most money and the player chose another team for personal reasons. I’m hoping they target the players they believe will help them win in the postseason and then spend what they need to spend to get them.
The Dodgers are overly analytical. Their nerds determine how much the GM will offer a free agent. Thus they lose out over a few million bucks.