Looking For A Match In A Corbin Burnes Trade

Of all the names that figure to populate the trade market this offseason, there’s perhaps no starting pitcher more intriguing than former National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. As far as trade options go, Burnes is any team’s best shot at adding a bona fide front-of-the-rotation starter whose salary is in just about any team’s wheelhouse. His durability also sets him apart from some of the other marquee arms on the market.

With all due respect to Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, Burnes will earn something like 60% of his $25MM salary in arbitration and has a track record of innings that Glasnow simply can’t match. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease is a former Cy Young finalist himself … but he also posted a mid-4.00s ERA last year and has never had even an average walk rate. Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is another fellow Cy Young winner with a comparable — likely lesser — salary coming in his final arbitration year. He also has seen his average fastball drop by about three miles per hour since winning that 2020 award, while his strikeout rate has quite literally been cut in half (a bit more than that) — falling from 41.1% to 20.1%.

Burnes’ 2023 season wasn’t his best, but the 2021 NL Cy Young winner pitched 193 2/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball, punching out more than a quarter of his opponents against a solid 8.4% walk rate. After a shaky couple months in April and June, Burnes looked like himself down the stretch. From July 1 onward, he logged a pristine 2.72 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Again — it’s not quite the peak Burnes we saw during his Cy Young-winning season, but Burnes was a clear No. 1 starter for the final three months of the year, just as he was from 2020-22.

Detractors can raise red flags about a dip in strikeout rate and a slight uptick in walks, and there’s some merit to both, but the simple fact is that over the past four seasons, Burnes has had all of three single months with an ERA north of 4.00. Two of them came early in 2023, but the bulk of his season was excellent — just as the bulk of this 2020-23 run has been on the whole.

Will the Brewers actually trade Burnes? That’s another story. It’s a distinct possibility, but Milwaukee isn’t going to be shopping him and simply accepting the highest bid. Yes, Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 season. And yes, he had some choice words about the Brewers organization following last offseason’s arbitration hearing. He also hired the Boras Corporation not long after his loss in an arb hearing, and generally speaking, most marquee players don’t hire Scott Boras & Co. to negotiate an extension when they’re on the cusp of free agency. In all likelihood, Burnes is going to be one of the premier free agents on the 2024-25 class, barring an injury or an uncharacteristically poor season.

The Brewers, then, know there are two realities in front of them. The 2024 season will be Burnes’ last with the team, or he’s already pitched his final game for them. It’s a sobering and unwelcome reality for Milwaukee faithful, but not an unfamiliar one for a fanbase that’s accustomed to seeing star players leave for the type of lucrative paydays Brewers ownership can rarely match (Christian Yelich standing as the primary exception to that rule).

At the same time, the Brewers also expect to compete in 2024. They won the NL Central in 2023 and, if they hang onto Burnes, can run back a rotation including him and Freddy Peralta at the top of the group. They have one of the best relievers in baseball (Devin Williams), a high-end shortstop (Willy Adames), a burgeoning star at catcher (William Contreras), a resurgent Yelich and one of the game’s very best outfield prospects (Jackson Chourio) on the cusp of the Majors. In a weak division, the Brewers can certainly keep Burnes and take a run at contending. Worst case scenario, they fail and flip Burnes at the deadline for a still-strong (albeit not as strong) return. They could also keep Burnes, contend in the NL Central, possibly enjoy one more playoff push with him, and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the year.

Burnes’ projected $15.1MM salary in 2024 — courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — is a selling point for interested trade partners because it could fit into just about any team’s payroll. However, that inherently means it’s also true of the Brewers, whose only guaranteed contracts are Yelich, Peralta and affordable arms Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby. Even with Burnes, Roster Resource projects the team’s 2024 payroll at just $101MM. They can afford to keep Burnes and add to the roster around him this winter.

If the Brewers are to trade Burnes, they’ll surely require some MLB-ready talent and/or controllable prospects who are on the very cusp of reaching the Majors. Burnes ranked second on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates, though that’s not necessarily an indication that he’s the second-likeliest player to move this winter. In writing that piece, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted that the rankings are an admittedly subjective blend of a player’s perceived availability, trade value and potential impact to a new club.

Burnes has a legitimate chance to be moved, but it’s not a situation where the Brewers will decidedly trade him for the best offer, nor is it one where they have to move him. If he ultimately changes teams, it’ll be because another club made a genuinely compelling offer containing long-term value that was too difficult to turn down for a player who is a veritable one-year mercenary at this point.

For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll rule out the rest of the NL Central. It’s unlikely that the Brewers will want to deal him within the division, and it’s perhaps even more unlikely that the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates or Cubs would want to part with the requisite type of controllable talent who could haunt them into the 2030s. Clubs in the midst of a rebuild/retool (e.g. Athletics, Nationals, White Sox, Royals) aren’t going to be considered here either. The Guardians develop pitching like it’s a cheap card trick. The Mariners’ rotation is already stacked with high-end names. We know the Rays, Padres and Twins are trying to cut payroll to varying extents. Clubs like the Rockies, Angels, Tigers and Marlins probably don’t feel they’re in a strong enough position to pay a premium for one year of Burnes, knowing he’s a lock to test the market next winter.

Here’s a broad-reaching look at some clear fits…

Astros: GM Dana Brown has already suggested that he doesn’t have tons of financial flexibility this offseason, downplaying needs in the rotation while talking up his desire to add to the bullpen and grab a backup catcher. That said, Brown was also candid about his openness to adding someone who could be a No. 3 starter or better, and Burnes clearly fits that billing in spades. Adding Burnes to a rotation including Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez would be a statement addition for an Astros club that just ceded the division title for the first time since 2017.

Blue Jays: Rumors about the Jays wanting to make a splash this offseason abound. A one-year match with Burnes would certainly fit the bill, giving Toronto a juggernaut rotation of Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi, with wild card Alek Manoah in the mix (if he himself isn’t part of a theoretical trade package for Burnes or shipped out elsewhere in a separate deal). Toronto can easily add Burnes to the roster without coming close to the luxury tax threshold, and as they’ve shown with trade acquisitions of Matt Chapman, Daulton Varsho and Berrios in the past two calendar years, they’re not afraid of parting with top prospects to make a big splash.

Braves: Atlanta reportedly had interest in both Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray but came up empty in each pursuit. They’ve since been connected to Dylan Cease, another Boras client who comes with half the projected arb salary as Burnes but twice the club control. The Braves tend to like to trade for players they have a chance at extending/re-signing (e.g. Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson), but that’s not a hard-and-fast rule and Atlanta’s clear priority this offseason is adding a playoff-caliber starter. Young MLB-ready names like Vaughn Grissom and AJ Smith-Shawver would surely hold some appeal to the Brewers, and the two teams have recently lined up on multiple trades (William Contreras, Orlando Arcia).

D-backs: Arizona’s core of hitters is beyond impressive. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno all had strong years at the plate. Jordan Lawlar, one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, debuted late in the season. In the rotation, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly is a strong one-two punch, with an up-and-coming Brandon Pfaadt sure to factor in prominently. The D-backs were stung by their starting pitching in the end, however, with the Rangers scoring a combined 16 runs in the first, second and third innings of the World Series’ five games. The Snakes would know Burnes is a one-year play who’d be a veritable lock to sign a deal beyond their financial comfort zone next winter. But as a revenue-sharing recipient, they’d also be positioned to receive the top compensation possible for a qualified free agent: a pick at the end of the first round in 2025.

Dodgers: The Dodgers were tied to Burnes earlier in the offseason, and they’re a perennially logical candidate to make a play for virtually any high-profile acquisition on the trade market. The Dodgers need pitching more than usual heading into 2024, with Clayton Kershaw not only standing as a free agent but also expected to miss at least half (if not more) of the 2024 season following shoulder surgery. Walker Buehler will be in his first full season post-Tommy John. Dustin May had flexor tendon surgery/TJS revision back in May. Tony Gonsolin underwent TJS in August. It’s a brutal batch of luck for Dodger arms, and while young options like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot and Nick Frasso give the Dodgers upside in abundance, they need some sure things as well. A one-year run with one of the NL’s top arms at a reasonable price point makes perfect sense here, and the Dodgers could make the deal knowing they’d get at least some draft compensation in return if Burnes signs elsewhere next winter, even if their status as a likely luxury tax payor would push the pick placement down to after the fourth round.

Giants: San Francisco is perhaps more focused on acquiring star-caliber talent it can control for the long haul, with names like Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the team’s reported targets. If they succeed in adding such a marquee player, however, it’d likely embolden president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi to pursue shorter-term upgrades. Pairing Burnes with any one of those free agents would represent a transformative couple moves for a Giants team that has now had back-to-back disappointing seasons on the heels of an out-of-the-blue 107-win season in 2021. It cuts both ways, too; if the Giants are looking to sell Ohtani on their competitive outlook, a strike to acquire Burnes would help show him just how serious they are.

Mets: It’s not fully clear how aggressively the Mets will push for contention in 2024 after a disappointing year. Following his trade to the Rangers, Max Scherzer candidly said (perhaps to the chagrin of Mets brass) that his former club was looking at the ’24 season as something of a transitional year. If that’s the case, paying a prospect premium for Burnes with little hope of extending him might not be prudent. But the Mets have the money and big-market resources to push for a deal if new president of baseball ops David Stearns — the former Brewers president of baseball ops — wants to pursue his former ace with his new club. Then again, acquiring a second Boras client in a walk year who’ll have a massive price tag in extension talks (joining Pete Alonso) could give Stearns some trepidation. That’s especially true since he knows owner Steve Cohen will surely support him next winter if he wants to sign Burnes in free agency.

Orioles: At some point, one would imagine the Orioles will have to do … something? Baltimore rode a core of breakout hitters and some underappreciated pitchers (Kyle Bradish, most notably) to a 101-win season and an AL East title in 2023. But the O’s haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since Mike Elias was named GM and haven’t acquired any impact veterans on the trade market. It’s hard not to wonder what their 2023 season would’ve looked like had they aimed higher than Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin when looking for rotation help last winter. Baltimore has an almost comical surplus of MLB-ready position players. There’s just not enough playing time for all of Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo, to say nothing of the game’s No. 1 overall prospect: Jackson Holliday. He’s likely to emerge as the shortstop of the future in ’24, pairing with Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson on the left side of the infield. Sooner or later, the Orioles have to act like potential postseason behemoth they are.

Phillies: Adding another starter probably isn’t a top priority for the Phils after re-signing Nola, but Philadelphia is surely hungry to get to the finish line after a consecutive NLCS appearances. The Phillies had hoped top prospect Andrew Painter could solidify his spot on the staff in 2023, but he wound up having Tommy John surgery instead. Cristopher Sanchez makes a fine fifth starter, but acquiring Burnes and deploying a rotation including him, Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker is undoubtedly tantalizing for a president of baseball operations who’s never shy about making big trades. Dave Dombrowski has World Series rings from his time with the Marlins and the Red Sox, but he has the payroll space and high-end pitching prospects to pursue this if he wants to make an all-out push for a third ring with a third team.

Rangers: The reigning World Champs have been MLB’s most aggressive bidders in free agency over the past couple offseasons, and their recent championship isn’t going to prompt them to sit back and coast from here on out. Texas will be players for Shohei Ohtani and other top free agents, but it ownership reaches the point where another free agent mega-deal becomes too much to stomach, trading for Burnes is a clearly appealing alternative. Jacob deGrom will be sidelined for much of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Jordan Montgomery could depart in free agency. The Rangers have a need for another high-end starter, and many of their top position prospects — specifically MLB-ready bats like Justin Foscue and Dustin Harris — are blocked at the MLB level right now. Neither would headline a Burnes trade, but both could hold some appeal as secondary pieces.

Red Sox: Boston was linked to Burnes earlier this week. New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is seeking at least one marquee arm to plug into a rotation that’s teeming with question marks — be they due to injury (Chris Sale) or limited MLB track record (Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck). Installing Burnes into the rotation would be a boon for the team’s 2024 outlook, but it remains to be seen whether a rookie baseball operations leader would want to part with substantial long-term talent for a one-year acquisition of Burnes on the heels of the Red Sox’ last-place finish in the division.

Yankees: Speaking of disappointing 2023 seasons from AL East powers, the Yankees barely eked out a winning season (82-80) and missed the playoffs entirely. They have serious long-term questions in the outfield, the infield and in the rotation. Burnes would be a short-term patch unless he can be re-signed next winter, but the Yanks might get their long-term arm if they can successfully sell Yamamoto on pitching in the Bronx. If they succeed in landing the righty, who many consider their top pitching target, then a trade to add Burnes to a starting staff also featuring Gerrit Cole, Yamamoto and Carlos Rodon (who can scarcely have a worse 2024 season than his 2023 Yankees debut) could give the Bombers a potential pitching powerhouse.

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Overall, the best fits for Burnes are going to be win-now clubs with payroll space, strong farm systems and strong enough 2024 playoff expectations that there’s little fear of giving up too much for a pitcher ahead of a season that culminates in a postseason miss. In my view, that points to the Dodgers, Orioles, D-backs, Phillies and Rangers, although Burnes is talented enough that you can make a compelling case for just about any pseudo-contender to take the plunge and meet Milwaukee’s surely steep asking price.