Nov. 29: The two parties are gaining momentum on what would indeed be a record-setting contract extension, reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Hogg suggests a framework in the eight-year, $80MM range could be in play, with multiple options and a presumably healthy slate of incentives also coming into play. The two sides have been discussing a potential deal since late in the minor league season, Hogg adds, indicating that the ostensibly looming agreement would mark the culmination of months of negotiation.
Nov. 28: The Brewers and outfield prospect Jackson Chourio are discussing an extension, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though the deal is not done, the report states it would set a new benchmark for an extension signed by a player with no major league experience. It’s unclear if the deal is close to being done or if talks are still in early stages. Chourio is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council.
Chourio is still quite young, as he doesn’t turn 20 years old until March, but he has vaulted himself to the top echelons of prospect lists thanks to his all-around contributions. He spent most of 2023 in Double-A, getting into 122 games at that level. He hit 22 home runs in that time and stole 43 bases. His .280/.336/.467 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 112, at a level where the average age was almost 24. He’s also considered an above-average defender in center field. He received a late promotion to Triple-A and got into six games there.
It’s also possible that his batting line from this year masks his true talent. His scouting report at Baseball America notes that the Double-A Southern League experimented with a pre-tacked ball which led to increased pitch movement and disadvantaged hitters, but they switched to a traditional ball in July. Chourio hit .239/.304/.410 prior to the switch but .323/.380/.544 against the traditional ball.
Chourio is currently considered the #2 prospect in the league, behind Jackson Holliday, by BA, MLB Pipeline and the most recent list from Keith Law of The Athletic. He’s currently listed #3 at FanGraphs and the most recent list from ESPN.
It appears that the Brewers have plenty of faith in Chourio’s ability, despite the fact that he has just six games of experience above Double-A and is still a teenager for a few more months. The exact details of the contract being discussed aren’t known, but Rosenthal indicates it will top the previous benchmark for players who have yet to reach the majors.
As noted by Rosenthal, five different players have received extensions prior to their MLB debuts. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that, of those five deals, the two most lucrative were both given out by the White Sox. In March of 2019, they gave Eloy Jiménez a six-year, $43MM deal, then topped that the following January by giving Luis Robert Jr. $50MM over the same six-year term. The other three players are Jon Singleton, Scott Kingery and Evan White, who each received far more modest deals.
There’s certainly risk in giving out a significant deal to a player who hasn’t proven himself at the big league level, but the Brewers know that there’s also risk in waiting. Not too long ago, they parted with Josh Hader as he continued to thrive and earn higher salaries via arbitration. There are rumors that they may have to consider a similar path with Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames, who are each about to make eight-figure salaries before reaching free agency after 2024.
If the Brewers are able to get something done with Chourio, it should decrease their chances of finding themselves in a similar position in the future. If the deal goes beyond six years, as Rosenthal reports it will, it would also increase his chances of cracking the Opening Day roster in 2024. The club would then have no incentive to keep him down in the minors to start the year and try to gain an extra year of control.
If the club considers Chourio a viable option to start next year in the big leagues, it could perhaps give them an outfield surplus to trade from. They already have Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor in the mix for playing time, with Blake Perkins and Chris Roller on the roster as depth options. Making someone in that group available on the trading block could perhaps allow the club to upgrade its infield or pitching staff during an offseason where there are few impact bats available and the demand for pitching is incredibly high.
Most extensions generally ramp up in terms of salary over time, vaguely resembling what a player might have received in the normal course of going through arbitration. The player gets some certainty over future earnings and protection against a significant injury while the club gains some extra control over the player’s future. Other than Yelich, the Brewers have very little on their long-term books. Aaron Ashby is signed through 2027 with two club options, while Freddy Peralta’s deal goes through 2024 with two club options.
Though there have been plenty of rumors about Burnes and Adames being dealt, it’s generally been expected that those theoretical deals would bring back MLB-ready talent to allow the club to continue competing despite their budgetary limitations. They clearly think Chourio can be a big part of their ability to keep the good times rolling and hope to keep him around for a while. For Chourio, he could potentially sign a 10-year deal and still reach free agency before his 30th birthday. Whether the two sides can find something that works for everyone remains to be seen.
Sign him to a big contract that way he can go to crap like all the Brewers big contract players.
I’m not sure how ‘big’ the contract would be. You’re buying a few years of pre-Arb, then you’re gambling on the rest. But even if he ends up being great, the first two years of arbitration would be pretty cheap. The only way this contract would approach big money is if it is more than a ten year deal, ie buying out like three years of FA. The kid has only played six games above AA. Huge gamble for the Brewers if they do this.
All those massive contracts the Brewers are known for handing out.
They’ve done much better lately, Braun actually produced for the length of his deal and Yelich is at least an all star again, can’t really ask more than that, Lo Cain just had a bad last couple years, overall deal was still worth it!
Seems like a smart move to me. He blew threw the entire minor league system at 18-19 years old. Sure looks like a superstar – offensively and defensively.
If you don’t take a chance on a guy like this then you never will.
The team gets 6 plus years of team control no matter what. And they have all that time to work out an extension. Why not wait a year or 2 into his big league career? That way one side or the other doesn’t end up getting screwed.
If you wait, his price may go up. There’s a leaning scale on these types of transactions; bottomline, you just hope for the best for all involved. Atlanta would never have Acuña on his current deal if they waited…
Yeah price will probably go up. If he signs a deal now it’s almost a guarantee one side will be unhappy with the deal in 5 years. Wait and it’s less likely to be that way.
C’est la vie! Dammed if you do, darned if you don’t. Either way, players don’t have to sign it if they don’t want the stability of guaranteed life-changing income. In this case, Chourio could choose to bet on himself, with no guarantees. =)
He’s 19 years old. He can’t legally vote. It seems almost predatory to try and sign him to an extension at this point.
Is it still 18 to vote? Whatever the case, pre-MLB extensions are not without risk. Points noted, Joel! Aloha
Ok drink fine lol. He’s barely an adult.
I have never voted…..
The price might go up, but it could also come WAY down. What if he turns into Jo Adell? That guy was “can’t miss” not that long ago.
I was just thinking about Jo Adell. Such a disappointment, he probably still can’t crack the major league roster even on the lowly Angels.
Jo Adell is a good comp. Was a top 5 prospect (just like Chourio) in baseball pre-2020 at 20 years old, just a touch older than Chourio here.
True, but Atlanta didn’t do that with acuna until after he blitzed the league his rookie year
Acuna didn’t sign before he played in AAA or the majors.
Sure. Higher risk for a higher reward when you ink it before he steps in the batter box. There’s inherently more risk but for a team like the Brewers—that’s a gamble that you think about making.
Or you can go to arb and lose that guy years earlier instead of paying Andrew Benintendi money gambling on his upside. Can’t do it with every player but if you trust that you’ve identified a really good one—swing away.
Nope, he won ROY in 2018. He signed his contract early april 2019.
Where do u freakin live, time for a revolution..
Acuna didn’t sign an extension before playing MLB baseball…
Not sure why some of you keep saying Acuna signed his contract while a minor leaguer… he won ROY in 2018, and signed his contract early April 2019. The Braves didn’t give him that deal before seeing him excel in MLB.
Padres waited a couple years into tatis’ career and it cost them $340m.
Whitesox signed Robert before he got to the majors for 8 years 90m(with options exercised)
just 38 days of waiting into the majors got carrol 111m. for 8 years.
Julio was less than a year and could be over 400m
that being said, Robert is one of the only pre-pro deals that looks to be working out (Evan white, Scott kingery, John singleton, Eloy jimenez), but they are generally cheaper than if you let a star get into their career.
Robert is Cuban not the same thing
Why does the team need to get over on the player? Just wait a couple years and that way both sides have a better understanding of what they are getting in to.
If they hit those two extra prime years are worth a fortune. This kid isn’t even 20, so if he’s good he will have another monster pay day waiting for him in 8 years.
Chourio gives up contract upside for a guaranteed fortune. The team bets that he’ll be a star and they get a relative bargain.
Nothing new. This is just how the world works.
Look @ what the Braves are paying Acuna & Albies. Locking up guys like that is a good starting point to a dynasty type run.
For every player getting underpaid there is a player sitting at home making millions. He is allowed to say no and gamble on himself. Soto has made a fortune already.
Why does Robert being Cuban make anything different?
It’s how mlb business was once conducted.
Chourio is Venezuelan. He’s not even a
US citizen, so if Joel P is referencing his ability to vote here in the States, he couldn’t. Either way Robert being Cuban or Chourio being Venezuelan have zero to do with anything around the extensions being talked about. Not even sure why that would be brought up.
Based on the nonsense I’m reading here, I’m very glad Joel P has not yet exercised his right to vote. My goodness.
What players signed extensions at 19 years old?
Yeah it’s actually kinda new to do this. To act like its business as usual is silly.
You can’t figure that out?
Dude we disagreed in another post and now you are trolling
He’s 19 dude. That’s the point. It’s not about if he can vote or not. He’s 19 freaking years old. Robert was older because he came over from Cuba that’s why I said it’s different. I believe Robert was 23 when he signed not 19. It’s different.
What’s the largest contract a 19 year old baseball player has ever signed?
Look it up
Padres will never win anything with Soto, Machado, and Tatis. Too much machismo and not enough desire to win.
Now that Peter Siedler has passed it makes more sense that he tried to over-pay to get a World Series. He knew his time was short. If I were the owner of the Padres I wouldn’t have doled out those extensions to Machado or Tatis or Darvish for that matter too.
Chourio signed a contract when he was 16 to play professional baseball also.
That 8-111 for carroll looks like a steal for Arizona as long as he stays healthy
Luckily the Padres were able to infect Tater Tot with ringworm and save about $30 million off the top.
Unfortunately for the Padres that contract was pretty back loaded. They probably saved 3 million.
Caroll has a bum shoulder.
Signing a contract as a 16 year old is nothing like signing a major league multi year extension at 19. At 16 he’s already under team control wherever he signs its really just a question of what team he plays for.
What’s the largest contract a 19 year old baseball player has ever signed?
You tell me.
He has a team of agents. You act like he some little kid in a room by himself being bullied by big bad executives.
Again what’s the largest contract a 19 year old has ever signed that covers MLB years?
You act like this is typical behavior and it’s not.
Who cares that he’s 19. You act like you are making some incredible point. If he was 21 is that some gigantic difference? It’s not. The younger the better. He comes out as a free agent again when he’s 27-28 and is line for another monster contract. Maybe he’s awful and is set for life at 19. We haven’t even seen the details yet but it sure sounds like it will be more than 52 million guaranteed dollars.
The problem here is most of you fancy yourselves as an amateur GM. And you think it’s cool to sign a young guy to a predatory contract. But this is real life and you aren’t a GM.
Owe my word. Do you know how many guys make 52 million dollars over 6 years of arbitration? Very very few. Not to mention the club options that will be substantial. If he plays like Juan Soto or Ronald acuna he’s leaving money on the table. If he plays like Jared Kelenic he’s laughing to the bank.
So why not just let him play a couple years in the big leagues and then offer him a contract where both sides can feel good about it years down the road? Why should either side gamble like this?
Joel, why do Venture Capital Firms exist?
Why do people go to casinos?
Why do investors buy speculative stocks?
Why do people buy bonds?
The world is based on risk and reward. Chourio wants to make money off his talent. He has the opportunity to change generations of his bloodline by signing. Does Chourio prefer bonds to the risky equity, where he guarantees himself a fortune, but one that might be a bit smaller?
There’s far more predatory things in the world than giving a 19 year old $50+MM. To drag on and on about it like it’s some kind of predatory action is nonsense.
Is it anymore predatory than giving a 16 year old kid from the DR $10K to sign a pro contract? Good lord.
You do realize he has the option of not signing any extension? Guys turn down extension offers every single year. Top 5 prospects miss all the time. He will be paid very well for any extra club options. In two years the Brewers might have zero desire to extend him because he doesn’t perform. There is tons of risk for the Brewers too. Maybe you should become his agent an advise him.
If 19 year olds signing 50 million plus deals is normal then why has it never happened before?
This isn’t a casino these are people’s lives.
You and I both won’t make $50 million dollars so I don’t know what the hell your point is. You’re trying to call it predatory and it just doesn’t make sense.
Joel I take it you’re about a college aged individual. I’d be very surprised if you’re not. I think you’ll get it in some time.
Lol I am 43 years old I own and run my own business selling vintage action figures and non sports trading cards.
Chourio is going to be rich no matter what. The Brewers owner is going to be rich no matter what. There is no reason for a 19 year old to sign a deal like this and all of baseball history agrees with me because ITS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE!
I am assuming most teams don’t want to risk that kind of money on an unproven 19 year old. Is this a serious question? Major risk on Brewers end.
Chourio is not going to be rich no matter what. What the F are you actually talking about? He’s made $1.9MM in his professional career.
He’d have to find another job if he blew his knee out tomorrow. If he signs that $50+MM extension then that’s it. His life is set. He can go buy bonds and sit on a beach somewhere for the rest of his life.
.800~ OPS last year isn’t exactly screaming superstar. I know he’s young, but idk…
10/$120 mil?
Those extra 4 years could end up looking like a bargain for Milwaukee.
Zero chance the AAV is $12 million. Probably more like 8/64
No chance? I’d take the extra 60 mil…
Well, sure, but the Brewers aren’t going to just hand out money. I posted 8/64 prior to Darragh adding previous financial terms. Given that Chourio hasn’t played in MLB yet, I doubt they would buy out any FA years. 8/64 is likely a max
Isn’t the whole point to buy out FA years… otherwise the system is already set up to favor the team for the first 6, no need to renegotiate his arbitration years ahead of time.
given his service class, I think the point here is to provide cost certainty for his arbitration years and ensure they don’t need to go to arbitration hearings. i could totally be wrong
That was a rhetorical question. The point is exactly to buy out as many free agent years as the team can in exchange for financial security for the player, essentially.
Typically the player doesn’t want to give up that many FA years. Something closer to 8/64 is enough to give him generational wealth and cash in later if he’s a stud.
I’m just saying, this gets the Brewers an extra 2 years. And also gets the player an extra $60 million. That is hard to pass up, no matter how good you think you’re going to be.
Your proposal was completely reasonable. It depends how risk averse Chourio is. That’s really what it comes down to.
Interested to see where it comes in at!
I’m thinking 7/77 then a few club options?
Scott Kingery….
Jon Singleton.
Evan white
Salvador Perez…..
What was the name of the KC pitcher that killed himself in a car crash ??
Yordano Ventura.
Jose Tabata
Kingery looked like a steal for a season or two, and then it went downhill.
I don’t know how much of a steal Kingery ever looked like. He was a slightly over 2 WAR 2B in his 2nd season and never did a damn thing after that. He was awful as a rookie.
Not to mention all the ones that COULD have been signed similarly like Jo Adell. For every top prospect that works out, there are two that don’t.
Then there are guys like Kris Bryant,win a ROY, follow that up with a MVP. Reach free agency sign for a shade under 200m and are essentially a replacement level player.
Letting Chourio have some success in 2024 in the bigs and then signing him would be my suggestion.
They should focus their energy taking advantage of the week free agent market and try to get out from under Yelich’s deal… perhaps to a team like the Rockies or Angels. They seem vulnerable to such a move. Maybe the Giants if they have a repeat missing out on the two FA bats they’re linked to.
It has worked for the Braves
Only for guys who have actually played in the majors and shown they are good, though. Or am I missing someone? This kid isn’t even slated to be in the big leagues at the start of the year.
It he signs the extension, he’ll be on the OD roster because he’s PPI eligible.
They need to change that. If he’s on a contract already, what’s the point of the PPI. He’s already earning service time and the extra year of control shenanigans don’t even come into play.
It worked for the Brewers with Freddy Peralta
He gonna beat out Evan white’s bargain contract? Perennial gold glove 1st baseman of the future
He would have been if he could ever stay healthy.
Without the details…
Nice. It’s too bad the Brewers kept him in AA vs promoting him to AAA when they did Black. This stands to make it easier to start him game 1 next season and not deal with any emotion towards keeping Chourio in the minors for X amount of days or sending him back to AAA after starting him on ML team for that “7th” season team control. This is exactly what teams should be doing with future stars to the game. Sign and play vs team control management for the better dollar, when the future extension makes that part mute anyway. Pay him 10years age 20-29 seasons. He’s legit, gets 10years to test Free Agency through age 39. Good luck to both sides making this a reality.
If Chourio makes opening day roster he is easily the favorite for roy in the nl and extra draft pick.
Double AA is harder to hit at. Tgat is why you see more players skippig AAA and making jump. That is why
The system is broken.
Wish the Orioles would do this for Henderson. Rutschman isn’t likely to take a long extension, but Gunnar or Grayson Rodriguez might.
Came here to post this as well. Gunnar especially. Grayson maybe. It’s really risky with the way pitchers arms flame out these days.
They should have locked Gunnar down before the season started like the Braves did with Albies, Acuna, etc. We got a chance to see him play in the majors at the end of ‘22. We saw the talent was real.
I don’t question Elias ever because he’s made all the right moves, but I think this was a miss he’s going to regret.
I guess at this point, the comparison is to Jackson Holiday. I can only hope since the Gunner and Hadley ship has sailed.
I’m not opposed to extending Holliday early, but that might ruffle feathers in that clubhouse. Especially after not offering that deal to two other can’t-miss guys.
Holliday should be set up pretty well with his #1 pick bonus money and the fallback cash he should inherit from dad. Think he’ll be a tough one to extend.
That is some serious young depth in the OF. Brewers have drafted and developed well. They are in a good position to make a transformational trade…
What was the name of that can’t miss Cardinal a few years ago that got killed in a car crash?
Oscar Taveras. First hit and homerun in the rain, thing of beauty. Passed away a few months later.
Thanks! My memory isn’t so sharp as it used to be.
Good bet to extend as long as you don’t get too crazy.
Has a player who has never played above AA ever signed an extension?
Just one. Evan White. And it hasn’t worked out well.
I mean Evan White wasn’t close to Chourio.
Do you remember the insane penalties teams like the Padres, Bo Sox, and Dodgers used to pay to just bring in international talent.
How much did Baez, Ona & Morejon, etc. run the pads in that 16-17 off-season?
Oh geez, memory serves long here! Nice recall, Bistro.
$40.8m
Wasn’t it like double that with penalties?
Close. Add in the ’17 International class and the grand total (contracts, taxes, etc.) was roughly $80m. Good memory dude!
Did you bother to read the article?
After they switched back to the traditional ball, he put up dominant numbers at Biloxi. The Southern League is always a tough place to hit, so that makes his “post tacky ball” stats even more impressive.
He’s also been several years younger than his competition too at every stop.
You have to factor both of these things in to evaluating him if just purely looking at his numbers and not actually watching him play, which I’m assuming you haven’t.
Corbin Carroll’s contract will likely be one of the biggest bargains in baseball. That’s the kind of deal that gives Mike Hazen an extension of his own.
Went to a single a game last year and didn’t know who this kid was. When he hit the ball there was a distinct sound I’ve never heard at a game before. My son and I immediately looked him up and he was ranked like 90th in prospects rankings. We both said that the kid was going to be something special. A year later he is top 5 prospect in baseball.
Huge mistake. CWS did this and it has hamstrung the franchise except for Robert. But Moncada and Jimenez now have contracts they really underperform.
I figure they’d want to sign him truly long term….
But what does that look like when there’s no track record? And if you think he’ll cost you in arbitration why not just project that out now? Will he be super two? Will it look like a massive over or under pay? Too many question marks.
Unless it’s just around what White got its a mistake. 4 out of the 5 deals with players that signed while still in the minors have not worked out well.
Btw if this website keeps popping up ads WHILE I am trying to type a response or that I can’t X out of I am going to Reddit or someplace that doesn’t do that crap.
I don’t mind ads I can X out of or that are not intrusive. I even click on them occasionally to get you paid, but when they get intrusive I leave.
You could pay $2.95 a month seeing how often you frequent the site!
Brewers should consider paying their staff more than $1500/month as well.
The same curmudgeon fans who lazily and oft comment that X player will be overpaid are sharpening their pitchforks.
Scott Kingery says go for it.
10 years/$145M ?w/ a few club options that could take it to 15 years/$315M?
Dang. I wasn’t that far off.
Ridiculous and completely unnecessary. Why not call him up and see what he’s got. These contacts have no upside for the team.
My person feelings are that it’s not in the interests of both parties when the player is just 19 years old. I know the temptation is to take the money but it can do more harm than good with such a young person.
So..what about 18 year olds signing up for the military to get money for college (gi bill)..?..this would seem a better option at least this kid is signing up to play a game vs train for war
Seems like a bad idea when the baseball world allows you to take advantage of these kids until after arbitration and they become a free agent. Glad for him to make his money, but these don’t often pan out no matter how expensive or cheap the contract is. That terrible player the Phillies did this with years ago comes to mind
The fail rate on prospects, even top prospects, remains uncomfortably high when considering dropping tens of millions. Also, seeing speculation that this guarantees he’ll break camp with the Brewers. Shouldn’t development guide when a player makes the majors, not the value of the contract?
This would be foolish of the Brewers on many accounts. He has proven nothing. Not to mention, it’s sets a precedence that no other MLB team is going to want to accept.
These are the decisions a Brewers team, as a small market, have to risk. As a fan of the team I like this risk. He turns out to be great you get a bargain, if not your risking little weight (with the years) on a yearly basis. Furthermore, yelich will be off the books when your likely going to have to pay for repercussions if this backfires. These are the deals the brewers have to make to be competitive longterm.
He’s proven to be a GG caliber CF who set at least 1 all-time record competing at AA while age 19. He’s a 40/50 superstar about to play Opening Day when this happens.
So he’s just magically going to go from 22 HRs against mistake prone AA pitchers but will increase that to 40 against substantially better competition?
Yeah eventually as he matures and see more pitching on top of having a lot more PAs to accumulate 40HRs in a season. It’s the stuff Acuna is doing which is Chourio’s projection.
Future potential is there. Career BA of 0.286 and wOBA of 0.437 is quite promising. Worth the investment to see how things pan out for him and the club.
I don’t get it. I just reviewed his minors numbers and nothing about his numbers are overwhelming to make him a #2 prospect or pay him 100 million. Actually reminds me of Odar as a prospect with high ranking despite OK numbers.
Age 19 season entirety and set a few records what he did for any player at age 19 in AA at that age. They played with a dead ball early in 2023. When they switched it, his numbers were white hot. Acuna comps/projection with elite CF gold glove skills.
He is 165lbs, but he is actually 6’1.
Those type of extentions rarely work out for the teams.
8 years and 80M and watch him like Orlando Arcia for the next 5 years. Arcia was their hot shot can’t miss prospect some 10 years ago and he flopped then got home self traded
Even at 20 in AA, those numbers aren’t blowing me away enough to give him guaranteed money yet. Super dumb move. How often do these actually work out? Seems like the last 3-4 prospects to get MLB extensions without a day of big league experience were all busts.
He was 19 all of last season. He will be 20 all of this season.