The Braves are among the teams in ongoing trade talks with the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Atlanta had been connected to a pair of notable free agent starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, but Nola re-signed in Philadelphia last week and Gray is reportedly wrapping up a deal with the Cardinals today.
With their ostensible top two free-agent targets off the board, it’s not a surprise to see the Braves being more prominently connected to the trade market. Cease’s White Sox are generally open for business on the heels of a catastrophic 2023 season that led to the firing of longtime baseball ops executives Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams. Assistant GM Chris Getz has since been elevated to the GM’s chair, and Getz plainly stated following the season that there are no untouchables on his roster. Cease, with two remaining years of club control, is among the likelier and most appealing trade candidates Getz has at his disposal.
Cease, 28 next month, was the American League Cy Young runner-up in 2022 but had a down season in 2023 — one of the myriad factors which contributed to the disastrous season on Chicago’s south side. His 2022 campaign featured 184 frames of 2.20 ERA ball with a dominant 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate, but that version of Cease appeared far too infrequently for the Sox’s liking in 2023. This past season saw the righty post a pedestrian 4.58 earned run average in 177 innings, showing diminished fastball velocity (95.8 mph, down from 96.9 mph a year prior) and a lesser strikeout rate (27.3%).
[Related: Looking for a Match in a Dylan Cease Trade]
Cease made a nominal improvement in his walk rate (10.1%), but virtually every other aspect of his profile backed up in ’23. His opponents’ average exit velocity and hard-hit rates exploded, jumping from 86.8 mph and 31.2% in 2022 to 90 mph and 41.5% in 2023. Both his swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rate dropped sharply as well, and Cease allowed an average of 0.97 homers per nine frames after yielding 0.76 HR/9 in 2022. He had some obvious struggles due to the poor defense behind him, with a career-high .330 average on balls in play (up from .260 the previous year), but that alone is not the driving force behind his struggles. Some of the BABIP spike was likely of his own doing anyhow; the uptick in hard contact he yielded certainly contributed to more balls finding their way through an already porous defense.
Although Cease’s 2023 season wasn’t a particularly strong year in terms of run-prevention, he still boasts well above-average velocity and bat-missing capabilities. Fielding-independent metrics (3.72 FIP, 4.10 SIERA) felt he was better than that lackluster ERA, even if he wasn’t as sharp as he was in 2022. He’s also proven himself a durable and reliable arm, as he’s made a full slate of starts in each of the past four seasons. Add in a reasonable $8.8MM projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and it’s abundantly clear that Cease still possesses plenty of trade value. Consider that Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, a pair of innings eaters in their late 30s who don’t have the same upside as Cease’s 2022 campaign, signed for $11MM and $12MM, respectively, with the Cardinals. Cease’s projected $8.8MM salary is a clear bargain — particularly with another year of arbitration set to follow.
As things stand, the Atlanta rotation projects to consist of Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder, with a fifth-spot competition headlined by AJ Smith-Shawver, Dylan Dodd and (eventually) a returning Ian Anderson, who underwent Tommy John surgery early in the 2023 season. The Braves have prioritized adding a playoff-caliber arm to that group, both to safeguard against injury for the top of the rotation and also to protect against the potential departure of Fried, who’ll be a free agent following the season. Cease would accomplish both of those goals.
In many ways, a trade is the more sensible route for the Braves to go in terms of their rotation need anyhow. Atlanta’s projected payroll is already just shy of $207MM, per Roster Resource, but their luxury-tax obligations are far more consequential. The Braves project at around $241MM of luxury considerations, which already has them north of the $237MM luxury tax barrier. This is the second straight year they’ll be paying the luxury tax, so they’ll be penalized at a 30% rate for the first $20MM by which they exceed the tax and a 42% rate for the next $20MM. Signing a free agent like Nola or Gray would’ve come with around $7-9MM in luxury penalties this year — on top of the player’s actual salary. And, since the Braves are set up to be third-time payors in 2024, they’d be facing even steeper tax percentages next season.
Cease, of course, will come with those same penalties, but a 30% tax on his projected $8.8MM salary would bring the total outlay for acquiring him (speaking strictly financially) to around $11.5MM — a far more palatable price point than the free-agent market has to offer. Atlanta would also have the offseason to explore a possible extension with Cease — an Atlanta-area native (Milton, Ga.). The Braves have had plenty of success both acquiring and extending players with local ties, be it through the draft or through trades.
The Braves’ farm system has been stripped down by previous trades to acquire names like Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and several relievers (Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer, Raisel Iglesias). They still have some appealing young talent, particularly in the upper minors or even some young big leaguers who’ve already gotten their feet wet. Smith-Shawver, Dodd and infielder Vaughn Grissom, for instance, would all hold appeal to the White Sox (and to other potential trade partners with pitching to peddle). The Sox and Braves already lined up on one swap this offseason, with Chicago sending the aforementioned lefty reliever Bummer to Atlanta.
Atlanta figures to face steep competition with regard to Cease, who offers one of the most tantalizing blends of raw talent, affordable salary and remaining club control on this offseason’s trade market. MLBTR ranked Cease sixth on our original list of the offseason’s top 25 trade candidates.
The Dodgers are already known to be interested, and just about any other team in need of starting pitching figures to check in — particularly those that may not want to spend top-of-the-market dollars to augment their starting staffs in free agency. That group could include the Reds, Pirates, D-backs, Padres and Orioles, to list a speculative few.
Why? The Braves have one of the worst farm systems in baseball right now.
Pitching heavy and they should at least get one arm when trading a pitcher.
I thought Cease was going to be traded to the Cardinals, for all their “promising injured prospects?” Lol.
Didn’t see it being a done deal yet there sparky.
Captain: The Cards wanted to add three SP. Lynn doesn’t count because he stinks. A threesome of Cease, Gibson and Gray would be great. The Cards are my favorite NL team so I would love that although I wouldn’t mind seeing him go to Atlanta, Arizona or Baltimore, either. He deserves better than the White Sox.
@avenger65- I hear you, you got to give up at least 1 top prospect in your top 5, and 1 in your top 10, and probably a Donovan. You make that deal for Cease? Hope all is well. Lmk. I obviously respect a die hards opinion.
Don’t know if the DBacks would give up Lawler, McCarthy and two top 15 prospects for Cease.
@Captain Judge, Honestly, the Sox need to take some risks if they’re going to turn this around quickly and without JR going on a Rangers-esque spending spree. Getting injured prospects with high upside is one way to maximize the talent return, even if it comes with a lot of questions about their future.
I hope Robert isn’t traded. Imagine Colson, Ramos, Robert, Vaughn, Beni. Could be a very good lineup in 2025/2026.
@Aiden, you’re operating under the dubious assumption that Vaughn will improve. He’s been up for three years and hasn’t been good yet. And Beni had one of the worst years of his career last year. Hope he turns it around, but not counting on it. Sox need a lot more than those guys.
Aiden: Even if the Sox keep that core of players, who’s going to pitch? What do you think the rotation will be comprised of? Urena? Deivi Garcia? Scholtens?
the depth is poor, yes, but there are at least two top-100 prospects in AJSS and Waldrep, plus Grissom (who’s no longer a prospect but who OPSed .900 in Triple-A way below the average age level and is blocked in Atlanta). I think the ammo is there to make a deal; it would just hurt the Braves’ farm worse than it would hurt most farms.
the advantage they have is nearly all of their top prospects are pitchers. A trade involving AJSS or Waldrep would hurt but they still have some very promising arms in the minors.
Only top 2 the Braves have are AJSS at #53 & Waldrep at #100. Grissom graduated, he wasn’t even eligible for ROY last season.
Just because a player isn’t ranked in the top100 list doesn’t mean they aren’t a great prospect lol…
There’s over 30 teams, you do the math…
The Braves have plenty of intriguing arms, and it would be more than enough to get Cease.
Now, say Getz and the Sox want a position player as the headline, then the Braves can easily be outbid unless Getz is really intrigued by a package headlined by either Grissom and Elder or Grissom and AJ Smith-Shawver.
Smith-Shawver is going to be a #3 or better for some team come 2024-2025, and he has the upside to be even better.
Elder was already an All-Star, even though he was fatigued and struggled the the latter part of the season..
Waldrep is a first round pick that has some immense potential, and had the best strikeout pitch in the draft.
Those three are front-liners for a big trade. No, individually they don’t get any deal done for a big-time pitcher, but not many, if any, other teams can offer an All-Star cost-controlled pitcher or a 19 year old phenom with ML experience and several years of cheap control who is just scratching the surface of his potential…
If I’m the Braves I offer Grissom, Elder, Waldrep, and call it a day. I’d like to keep AJ Smith-Shawver.
waldrep and wallenbach are both supposed to be front of the rotation guys. I’d not part with either of those.
Whaiii: You think that matters to the Sox? As long as they’re making below the Sox’ ceiling of $3m, you could send anyone to the Sox. Salary above talent.
Maybe Getz can turn it around for the Sox and get some value back
Sure. As long as they don’t cost more than $3m/year. They signed DeJong, a god-awful player, because he signed for $1.75m. Salary over talent, the official Sox motto now going into its second season.
This seems media or fan driven. AA doesn’t leak ANY info. Could be members of the media creating fake leverage against other teams.
I am guessing leaked by agent in an attempt to drive the price upwards.
It’s a trade not a signing. Any agent would rather have their players on a good team instead of being in Chicago.
you dont think the CWS can leak(or leverage) this info against other teams hold out for better trade pieces?
You give Getz too much credit. He’s not smart enough to play that game. Also, what would be the point of Getz holding out for better players? Reinsdorf isn’t going to pay them what they deserve.
He may not leak any info
But the Sean Murphy interest certainly got leaked somewhere last year.
Nobody believed the Braves had true interest because they had 2 all star catchers but it wasn’t long after AA came out & said nothing was imminent that Murphy became a Brave.
probably right.
1st place team with several players locked up and 3/5 starters and a top notch reliever. why take from the farm and win tomorrrow.
worst farm in first place could have worst farm in last place. too much complaining.
Shawver, Waldrep and Grissom is a great deal for both teams.
No way they are getting both pitchers
Switch in a Vines or a Miller someone like that for a Waldrop or AS-S
But no way they get both.
Too much from ATL. Anderson, Grissom, maybe a lottery ticket?
You think you are getting a former Cy Young Runner up, at 28, with 3 more years of team control and is sought after by probably at least 6-10 other teams that have a better farm, for anything less than the number 1 and 2 guys in the system? And that would be the table setter.
No it isn’t. Waldrep is even more untouchable now. The Braves are probably going to need two new starters next year to replace Fried & Morton. si.com/mlb/braves/news/report-aj-smith-shawver-is-…
So much if baseball is scouting; so what could be a bad farm system could have a super star in it. Neither Michael Harris nor Spencer strider were on anyone’s top list and they took the league by storm.
If you could get Ian Anderson who showed signs of being a star bender; Vaugh Grissom and than a couple lottery ticket prospects in the trade it could be a smart deal
Strider and Harris weren’t high on people’s list at draft time but they shot up on lists once they started playing baseball.
Ian Anderson has seemed to plateau. The upside there is a backend starter with average stuff. The white Sox can’t take that as a headliner or with just Grissom for cease. They’ll be better offers available.
@BrianStrowmang: Your “they shot up on lists once they started playing baseball” comment isn’t accurate. Strider barely cracked the top 100 when he was named BA’s #99 prospect in May 2022 of his rookie year. Harris II never made the top 100 of BA, Fangraphs, or MLB Pipeline. The Braves didn’t receive a draft pick when Harris II won Rookie of the Year in 2022 as a result of those 3 not ranking him in any of their top 100 lists. Harris II’s rapid ascension through the Braves system resulted in him making his ML debut after only 43 games in AA Mississippi.
I don’t think fangraphs is included but they did slap a 50 FV grade on Harris pretty early on. The problem with him getting on a preseason list was that he hadn’t played much baseball.
They both were top 100 guys before they cracked the big leagues on the lists. It was a rapid ascension though so they were obviously a little underrated. Nobody pushes prospects up faster than the Braves and Angels.
not necessarily. We have a couple of hitters in A and a few stud pitchers in A or double A. But our farm is a little bare. We honestly cleaned out the garbage. I wouldn’t mind having cease if we can part with the young kids Smith shawyer and Ian Anderson and throw Dodd in there too. We have Waldrep, Kuehler, and wallenbech and 2 out of those are supposed to be absolute studs.
That doesn’t mean they don’t still have enough high quality talent to get the deal done.
AJ Smith-Shawver, Vaughn Grissom, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, Spencer Schwellenbach, Cade Kuehler, Owen Murphy, Braun, Maier, Ritchie, Phillips, Darius Vines, Baumann, Hackenburg, Lara, Dodd, Winans (who is 28, but is a late bloomer that should alot of promise), etc. On the position side they have Alvarez, Drake, Baldwin, Franklin, Ceballos, Guanipa, Tavarez, Glod, Benitez, Baez, McCabe, etc.
They have several very promising younger pitching prospects and some talented younger position guys, in their system. Their system has been reloading little by little, but the majority of their talent is just very young, that’s why they’re still rated low.
Yes, acquiring young talent is extremely risky if you’re the White Sox, but I would definitely trust the Braves scouting staff and my own scouts if there are a few guys I really liked.
That’s also why you’d likely start a deal out for the young All-Star Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver, etc., so that way you know you’re getting at least two young starters that already have ML experience and are ML ready.
The 30% tax rate is on the entire payroll, not on any individual player.
Cease is a good pitcher, but his ‘22 season is the outlier in his career.
It’s only on the part of the payroll over the threshold, so it essentially is on Cease, since his paycheck is totally over the threshold.
I understand why fans and media consistently make this error. He’s one player on the payroll, with final calculations made at the END of 2024.
It’s not an error. If you are over the threshold and add a player, you’ve increased payroll by that player + the penalty. If you make other changes up or down, then the calculus changes, but at the moment the player is added, that’s what the increase is.
LordD99: If he gets on a team that actually has a pitching coach, plus being in a less negative environment, and you’ll see that ’22 was not an outlier.
Avenger, he’s certainly talented. I’m not betting against him, but the acquiring team should plan for something between 2022 and ‘23 performance.
Terrible fielding caused all the Sox pitchers extra points on their ERA.
Don’t forget that terrible bullpen blowing lead after lead.
He had the same pitching coach…
An outlier? He literally has 3 full seasons in his career. His first year was his limited rookie year followed by Covid year. He was great one year, pretty good one year and last year had struggles. Only 27 and misses bats at an elite rate. Change of scenery from the mess in Chicago to a program with good defense, good coaching and potentially a better park for pitchers and this guy should easily surpass his 2023 results. Will he get to 2022? Maybe not, but you don’t even need that to have a great part of your staff.
It’s gonna take a huge haul to get a 27 year old with still untapped potential who has flashed it already.
Atlanta is a place where pitchers get better. South side is often a place, recently, where people underperform. Imo he would turn into an ace in Atlanta. Outside the coaching differences ATL also seems great at changing pitch usage to benefit pitchers (how often they throw a pitch and when).
Except when Kevin Gausman forgot how to pitch how to pitch and they DFA’d him – baseball-reference.com/players/g/gausmke01.shtml
In fairness he had a ten start stretch with ATL the previous year that was a sign of what was to come in his future. But yeah..no team is perfect.
Could see Chicago asking for Smith-Shawver, Dodd, Grissom & another player easily. Not saying the Braves would do it, but asking for that sure.
As long as that 4th guy is more of a lottery ticket type, I think that’s reasonable.
Could see the Braves letting the White Sox hold onto Cease in that scenario.
I’d say yes…The Braves could do wonders with Cease and he and Strider would be one of the best young’ish 1-2 combos in the league.
I wouldn’t do that if I were Atlanta. But I also think Cease is a little overrated.
A frontline pitcher ought to bring back in trade a frontline position player, plus the inevitable “prospects” who never pan out. Why settle for just prospects, who, as I say, never pan? At least in Chicago. The Sox traded Quintana for Cease and Jimenez, and now the team is looking to dump them both. For what? Prospects who will have nothing but “upside”?
@realsox – are you really complaining about the Quintana fleecing of the Cubs? Cease has already had WAY better years than Q ever had, and they aren’t looking to DUMP anyone. If you look at the trade options above, getting 1 or 2 great pitching prospects + Grissom and a lottery ticket is not a dump.
I know it’s cool to be a miserable Sox fan, and Reinsdorf has given us all plenty of reasons. But come on – the Q trade was a HUGE win for the Sox.
are you really complaining about the Quintana fleecing of the Cubs?
=============================
It has to be one of the stranger complaints I have ever seen in here. The WS scored huge with “just prospects,” So huge, in fact, that they are attempting to trade the ” just prospects,” for even more prospects.
The Sox traded Quintana for Cease and Jimenez, and now the team is looking to dump them both. For what? Prospects
======================
Is there a complaint there? They traded one guy who had a 3.6 bWAR for the Cubs, for two guys who have, so far, accumulated 17.3 WAR for the WS.
Yet it feels like you have a problem with it.
@JoeBrady – feels like you are agreeing with me, but not sure lol. Trading Q for Cease straight up would have been a steal (he led the league in bWAR in 2022), but adding in Jimenez and his 118 OPS+ just adds to it (yes, he’s frustrating /injured/can’t play D, but still a top-10 DH when healthy).
Then promptly sign him to an 8 year $20 million dollar contract.
The Braves would make $MM’s selling Strider/Cease moustaches
Amanda: What a promotion that would be! “Who Has The Best Mustache, Cease Or Strider?” My vote would go to Cease, but it would be a close contest.
I’m rooting for this deal for this very reason lol. Mustache brothers! Think of the t shirt sales!
Now things are just getting silly. Is it silly season already?
Offer Elder & Grissom if they don’t bite then AS-S & Grissom
Neither offer gets Cease. With the level of competition for Cease you aren’t getting him for less than 3 high quality prospects and a probably 4th lottery ticket.
An Orioles fan/friend of mine suggest it would take something like this from the Orioles:
Mayo or Westberg, Ortiz or Norby, Povich and a 4th piece.
Seemed reasonable and with multiple top level contenders gunning for rotation help, the cost won’t be cheap.
And your Oriole fan friend play MLB The Show much ???
White Sox will get a Jose Berrios type return.
3 prospects & a WC you are out of your mind
Thats a gigantic package for the Orioles to give up. I’d bet he changes hands for much less.
Exactly
I think that Orioles’ trade package would be way too heavy.
AJSS, Grissom and another prospect not named Waldrep would probably get it done- I just don’t want Atlanta to do it. If someone else is going to overpay the Sox for Cease, let’em do it.
It’s gonna take all 3 of those guys plus a couple lesser pieces (Vines, Dodd, etc.)
Braves would be parting with either AJSS or Waldrep in order to pull off a trade for Cease, in addition to some other prospects. This would at least address the rotation concern for 2025 but I would hate to lose either of those young pitchers. The only MLB guys I could see them moving are Arcia and Ozuna.
AG7: I could see Ozuna leaving, but who’s going to play SS if they trade Arcia? I didn’t see all of the Braves games this season, but Arcia seemed pretty good both offensively and defensively.
I honestly don’t think Arcia would be traded. He’s just one of the few who isn’t guaranteed a roster spot the next few years. There’s no one in the system threating to take his spot so they’d have to find a replacement if that happened, which I doubt they do.
Wouldn’t mind seeing him go to my Twins! Not holding my breath though….
Twins have a great farm and could get it done, but yea doubt those two teams getting togehter on a blockbuster.
Why do the Braves need a good farm system right now? They sign all their good, productive players long term and buy and trade for their needs. On the other hand this guy Stearns must think he’s getting Yamamoto next week and trading for Burnes. This guy is sitting on his hands while the Braves and Phillies get better. Get something done Metsies!
Server: But the sad fact is the top players will eventually be gone, like Morton and Fried possibly. They can trade for big name players like Cease but that’s not gonna help if there are injuries. Look at the DBacks, Rays and Orioles. Both have strong farm systems and can call on some pretty good players if they need to. Farm systems are very important. I mean, Branch Rickey wasn’t wrong.
@avenger65 — So ATL hasn’t called upon some pretty good players and gotten production when they finished 1-2 in RoY in ’22 and got an All-Star rookie SP (Elder) last year? Sure, they needed more, but that’s what they’re addressing. The lacking wasn’t farm depth, unless you really feel comfortable with a deeper farm putting out a rookie to go in G1-G3 in a playoff series. ATL drafts/develops better than just about anyone.
Remember this is only the 2nd season without sanctions on international free agents — depth was bound to take a hit, but you also need a place to put them, which there are very few available roster spots.
@DMC: Agree. The folks who think the Braves farm system is weak are missing that there are a dozen plus good arms coming. The system is position player weak, but so what because as you referenced—“you also need a place to put them.” The Braves farm system is strongest in the most valuable way—–pitching. W/the current state of the MLB lineup, the Braves are 3-5 years plus away from needing ML ready position players (barring injury). Plenty of time to stock up on those in the draft, international market, or via trading from their pile of good pitching prospects.
But what happens if the Braves are hit by injuries like the Rays were this season? They relied primarily on their farm system and wound up with 99 wins. The farm system is very important. Hopefully the Braves players will stay healthy.
Nice explanation avenger. Good reasoning.
The way I see it, is if the White Sox don’t move Cease either now or at the ASB this year – then they have wasted a wonderful opportunity to improve themselves. Cease is a max effort thrower, and IMO is showing signs of wear and tear.
Dogbone: I don’t know about wear and tear. I do know that Cease – and Giolito – were victims of bad defense and a rotten bullpen. As soon as those two were lifted when they had the lead, the bullpen blew it time after time.
Better fits out there
“Signing a free agent like Nola or Gray would’ve come with around $7-9MM in luxury penalties this year — on top of the player’s actual salary. And, since the Braves are set up to be third-time payors in 2024, they’d be facing even steeper tax percentages next season.”
I’m guessing the 2024 above is a typo and was meant to say 2025, since the Braves are second-time payors in 2024. The Braves potentially have over $60M coming off the books in 2025 between Morton, Fried and Ozuna, so there’s a decent chance they could drop below the threshold.
Youd think Boston could beat any package the braves put forth..question is does Breslow know the value of all his pieces well enough to make it work
He’s the “smartest man in baseball”, so maybe he can figure it out.
Depends on what the White Sox want. Boston has a deeper system with better hitting prospects. But the Braves have 2 strong pitching prospects + Grissom.
The more important question is whether he wants to outbid everyone else, with a farm that is still not completely recovered.
And secondly, what is Crease worth? He’s a good pitcher, but his 3.83/3.86 ERA/ERA+ suggests nothing more than a #2. He supplies a lot of innings which is good, and there might be some suggestion that a better fielding team might help, but we don’t have that.
Good point..people are talking like he could approach the value they got for sale with 2 years left and thats just not going to happen
Cease will likely go someone else and be great, this org has no instructional coaches to speak of, in the minors or at the major league level.. Who was responsible for the White Sox minor league development system? Oh yeah, the current GM…..
It’s definitely the right time to sell Cease, with two years of control, and he’s going to improve his numbers with a much better defense like the Braves.
Currently financially controllable starter who outside of Luis Robert had a bunch of out of position/DH’s in the field behind him. Put him in a Braves/Dodgers/Phillies uniform and you have a 15 win pitcher with a sub 3.50 era.
With Reynaldo Lopez a possible starter in Atlanta it’s possible the Braves could include Bryce Elder in a deal to land Cease (not saying 1-1 nor as the main piece) I’m just saying the Braves could move Elder and Lopez could be an even better replacement for them
I’m not sure the Braves will be willing to pay what Cease will cost, and there are concerns. Way too many walks in 2023, he was horrible against left handed batters (.797 OPS and 13 home runs vs LHB), and his velocity dropped by more than 1 mph over 2022. Would have to wonder if there is an underlying injury, or if the White Sox defense (or lack thereof) contributed to his 2023 decline.
What do the Braves have to part with? This would have to be AJSS or Waldrep + Grissom. They’ve emptied the system out over the last few years with trades and graduations.
White Sox would probably have some interest in Elder also
Maybe but he’s a really bad fit for them. Not a huge upside guy and he generates a lot of ground balls. Their infield defense is terrible. You’re basically buying Elder at peak value right now.
They might but they really shouldn’t.
I think the Braves are willing to do that deal & possibly may be willing to throw in a Dodd, Anderson or Winans if that’s what was needed to go over the top
But no way they give both AS-S or Waldrep.
The drop in velocity scares me, and I really don’t want the Braves to make this trade unless they could get it done without trading Waldrep and AJSS. I know some people can explain away some of Cease’s troubles by pointing to the Chicago defense, but you could bring Frank Thomas out of retirement and put him at SS- it doesn’t impact a pitcher’s velo.
Braves doubling down on fixing the WhiteSox’s pitching development disaster. It’ll probably work.
Texas has a great package on the table for Dylan Cease. White Sox love Ezekiel Duran.
I wonder how much juice j. Ortiz has as a headliner in a trade for controllable pitching. I know everyone will ask the orioles about westburg and their other elite prospects. Would ortiz net a cease or gilbert level pitcher? Or more along the line of a keller or singer?
The latter. Ortiz is a good prospect but more of the quality regular variety than high upside. I don’t think Westburg should be completely off the table for the right arm though.
Didn’t the Sox already acquire like 40% of the Braves roster in one trade?
You mean 40% of the Braves scraps.
Seriously, Braves scraps are better than most other teams’ prospects. A couple of years ago, ATL acquired Gausman/O’Day in what amounted to a salary dump from BAL with Gausman having 2 years of control. ATL shipped away a slew of prospects, including Evan Phillips in that deal. This time around, I wouldn’t be surprised to see lesser-known: Riley Gowens, be the last man standing in the CWS deal – as ATL barely got to see anything from him.
braves probably did discuss him but then they found out what the sox wanted for him. Braves are about to get out priced with nola and gray off the table. the market is going sky high
Cease will be a Dodger by next week.
Also possible.
That would be a good fit because the Dodgers have a good pitching coach that will bring out Cease’s full talent. Scary!
Found this post about Cease to Reds.
blogredmachine.com/posts/mlb-insider-builds-reds-w…
Thoughts?
Starting an opinion piece with India is kind of a non-starter. Getz looks like he is looking for a complete rebuild, and getting someone with only 3 years of control left shouldn’t interest them.
Hopefully Getz is starting a complete rebuild but they haven’t really shipped out any long term assets. Bummer was the only guy dealt who had multiple years of control left.
They did deal for Nicky Lopez/Soroka but they were more of the ancillary pieces. (Well the whole trade was essentially ancillary pieces) India couldn’t be more than an ancillary piece if the Sox had any interest.
He will probably keep AV, Beni, Robert regardless if they rebuild or retool etc. They are all under contract thru 2027.
So is Burger.
Forget Dylan Cease.
1) Sign Fujinami.
2) Sign Yamamoto..
3) Now you have a better chance of signing Ohtani…
Fujinami being the lure. Yamamoto the bait.. Ohtani the catch…
Then they should lure Ichiro out of retirement and sign him. Dude is approaching fifty but can still hit. He’s in fantastic shape.
Ahhhh, he’s retired there guy. Good try on the humor but no LOL
The SOX are aiming for DBacks OF prospects if they trade Cease. Any insider talk of LAD or ATL bidding for Cease is likely being leaked to get AZ to meet their price, which I hope is Druw Jones. New SOX assistant GM Barfield knows AZ farm system well, and my hope is that AZ’s dire need of starting pitching will lead to a deal. Other options are Fletcher, Berosa and Alex Thomas should they trade for a basket of prospects. I expect it to get done by the GM meetings.
I know BaseballTradeValues is more toy than tool, but I plugged in the following trade in on there, and it came back fair; what’s your opinion on the framework?
DBacks receive: SP Dylan Cease
White Sox receive: SP Ryne Nelson, OF Jake McCarthy, and SS Jansel Luis
I’m sure you’re already familiar with the first two, but Luis is the DBacks #4 prospect by FG; he’s an 18 year switch-hitting SS that currently has 55 FV on his hit and game power, and has 50 FV on his speed, fielding, and arm.
I could see a three player deal for Cease, but not those three. I doubt Nelson would be included because AZ needs starter depth and SOX will be targeting positional depth to prepare for eventually losing Robert, Moncada, Jimenez and Benetendi. AZ is the best match other than TEX prospect-wise, but has the more dire need for a cheap starter with high upside, so could pay what SOX need.
GM Getz will be targeting position players with plus or better fielding metrics. Given their familiarity with Alex Thomas, whose father was employed by the team for 30 years, and the fact he is odd man out in a very deep AZ OF pool, Thomas will be in any trade with this SOX FO..
Luis could be a 3rd piece given his age and position. I would be shocked if Fletcher isn’t part of the deal, as he is precisely the type of gritty, glove first Eckstein type of utility OF both Getz & Reinsdorf have publicly stated they’re looking for.
Note, these are who I think the SOX will target, none of whom I would. I would only target Druw Jones, eating contracts and packaging whatever AZ needs to get it done, like Cease + Jimenez + $20M.
AZ should sacrifice some young utility OFs for Cease, who legitimately could be a second ace. His poor performance is partially due to their terrible catching, defense and club culture, which he was particularly sensitive to. Cease has really incredible stuff and could win a Cy If healthy.
The DBacks do have a fair amount of SP depth, though; Gallen, Kelly, Pfaadt, Nelson, Henry, Cecconi, Walston, Jarvis, Rodriguez, and a handful of young guys that they like already either in AAA or showing decent results at AA. The overall rotation depth isn’t the problem, it’s the quality towards middle/top of the rotation.
I proposed Nelson because the White Sox aren’t exactly flush with MLB-ready starting options; I mean, two of their projected starting rotation were acquired in the Bummer deal. DBacks don’t have a shortage of back of the rotation arms with middle of the rotation upside, Nelson is just pushed out by the volume of RHPs that are better than him (wouldn’t be much room for him in a rotation of Gallen, Cease, Kelly, Pfaadt and AAA being full of RHPs).
I wouldn’t really call Thomas the odd man out, because all of them do have a “fit” on the roster. I personally proposed McCarthy because he’s adequately playable in CF/RF, has 98th percentile sprint speed with strong baserunning acumen, and he has no platoon splits offensively. He’s a well-rounded player and terrorizes the opposition when he’s healthy and locked in (his timing never quite recovered after an oblique injury late in last Spring Training, and the OF depth meant he didn’t have the PAs to figure it out in MLB).
I definitely can see the appeal of both Thomas and Fletcher to the White Sox, but only one of them and McCarthy is likely to be part of a package (and I personally think that McCarthy is the best of the three) and unless the White Sox are REALLY high on Druw Jones and propose a haul, Hazen is unlikely to deal him while his value is at an all time low by industry concensus.
Luis is a bit further out, but I proposed him because outside of Perdomo/Lawlar the DBacks are a bit short on potential impact talent in the IF. A bat heavy prospect with all of the tools and a good shot to stick at SS is nothing to sneeze at. It makes no sense for the DBacks to create a hole by dealing Perdomo/Lawlar to address another hole.
Your last paragraph is why I think the DBacks are one of the best equipped teams to get the most out Cease; DBacks have one of the best best young catchers, one of the best defenses, one of the best pitching coaches, one of the best clubhouse cultures, and a solid bullpen (I won’t say one of the best without more evidence).
I agree with you about the match AZ provides for Cease, perhaps the ideal situation regarding defense, staff, youth, catching and culture. AZ has built the right way, which gives me a bit of hope for the SOX nabbing Barfield to assist rookie GM Getz. I really hope Cease goes there instead of LAD or ATL. STL would be my second choice.
Unless he’s dirt cheap, which he isn’t, then we probably should just sign a guy or two. We have no depth. Grissom as of right now is probably our only LF option and prob a pretty decent one. And we really only have 2 top end pitching prospects with both Fried and Morton likely gone next year and elder a complete wildcard. So I don’t like trading either of the for DC either. Unless we sign fried long term, I just don’t like the idea of trading away top talent to get him. Also part of me wonders if the bummer “overpay” was sort of a handshake agreement to give us a slight discount on another deal. But I don’t think that’s the case honestly
If you trade Cease, you may as well trade Robert, too. That sounds about PAR for the White Sox and their bad decision making, and it’s not as if we have a new, bigger brain running the farm. It’s the same guy that could not develop a toddler – Chris Getz. SMH. Wish we could trade him, Boyer and Jerry for a bag of……
He ruled out Robert not too long ago. They could have a “new” core by 2025/2026. Andrew Vaughn, Beni, Robert are all under contract thru 2027. I think this is what Getz wants.
Aiden: Once again, Burger is also controllable through 2027 and he’s wearing a Marlins uniform.
Burger was traded by ex-team President Kenny Williams to former SOX FO staffer Ng, which was opposed by GM Hahn. He inexplicably wasn’t considered a core piece according to their FO, despite being the most well liked player and clubhouse leader.
Robert will not be moved until he can bring back a record haul of top 50 prospects. He would be worth it for whichever team pays it, but it won’t happen until they determine which prospects hit and where they’re still deficient, likely 2025 imo.
Rebuild and rewind time. SOS. Hard to care anymore. LOL
If Cease is indeed traded to Atlanta. I definitely see an arm(LH or RH) possibly Forest Wall, Vaughn Grissom, other prospects in Single A or Double A. Not cheap despite the Braves being last in farm system.
I thought the padres made since for cease but the offers people are putting in here are incredibly high for him.
Feels unlikely to be worth it if the real value is 3 top prospects plus.
Not sure if the padres would deal Jackson Merrill for cease. Merrill has plus value over cease. They could instead move a package with one of snelling or lesko instead.
The Braves’ lock on the NL East for the next five years should have them going after elite arms, and only elite arms.
If they think Cease will be in their postseason rotation as of the end of the offseason, go for it. Otherwise, target the likes of Glasnow.
For what the Braves gave up for Bummer it should have been Cease coming to the Braves. What the heck do we have left to trade prospect wise now. Unless the White Sox just want cash ?
Reinsdorf wanting cash? More than life itself.
If you use “and” to begin a sentence, it shouldn’t have a comma after it.
Ian Anderson, Vaughn Grissom, a top prospect of the sox choosing.
Boom. done. The WS aren’t the brightest organization and they’d maybe do it for less.