MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our 18th annual Top 50 Free Agents list! These are the top 50 MLB free agents by our estimation of their earning power. To view the full 2023-24 free agent list, click here.
This list is a labor of love that represents more than a month of work by Anthony Franco, Tim Dierkes, Darragh McDonald, and Steve Adams. We live and breathe MLB free agency at this website, and we’ve spent countless hours debating these contract projections. While we reached a general consensus on the contracts, points of disagreement certainly remain. We’ve each made our own set of team picks as well, but it’s worth noting the difficulty in getting even one-fifth of those correct.
Please note that some clubs are under-represented in our team picks, but there will be notable free agent signings outside of our top 50, and some teams prefer to supplement via trade.
Making team picks is part of the fun, which is why we hold a free agent prediction contest every year! This year’s contest is currently open and closes at 11pm central time on November 13th. Click here to enter! You can change your picks up until the deadline. Keep in mind that any player who signs prior to the deadline will be excluded from the results.
For an in-depth analysis of the upcoming offseason for each of the 30 teams, check out our Offseason Outlook series.
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The 2023-24 MLB free agent market boasts a unique generational two-way star at the top in Shohei Ohtani and several big names within the top ten, but is lacking in position player depth. We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent and trade marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some. Have your say on all of this in the comment section!
Special credit goes to Anthony Franco, who authored the vast majority of the player blurbs to follow.
On to our top 50 free agents:
1. Shohei Ohtani. Twelve years, $528MM
Tim Dierkes’ prediction: Dodgers / Anthony Franco’s prediction: Dodgers / Darragh McDonald’s prediction: Dodgers
Ohtani’s two-way legend stretches back to his days in Japan. He’d hit .286/.358/.501 while pitching to a 2.52 ERA in parts of five seasons at Japan’s highest level. Ohtani then decided to make the jump to the Majors, knowing that doing so involved sacrificing a substantial sum (likely hundreds of millions of dollars) in short-term earning power. By signing with an MLB club before age 25, he qualified as an international amateur and was subject to a hard-capped signing bonus. He landed with the Angels for just north of $2MM. That locked him into the traditional six-year reserve system (three years of roughly league minimum salaries, followed by three years of arbitration).
Ohtani was arguably the most anticipated international signee ever. There was never any question the Angels landed a player who’d contribute immense value. Yet some evaluators expressed skepticism about his viability as a two-way player. He was generally regarded as a potential ace on the mound, but there were questions about how his bat would translate against MLB velocity.
He dispelled some concern with a strong rookie showing. Ohtani connected on 22 homers in 114 games to win the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year. Dreams of immediate two-way stardom were put on hold when he suffered a UCL sprain in his throwing elbow after 10 starts. He required Tommy John surgery that October, limiting him strictly to designated hitter the following season.
Ohtani had a fine second year as a hitter. His return to the mound in the shortened 2020 campaign was marred by an inability to throw strikes. Heading into ’21, there was legitimate debate about whether it was possible to succeed on both sides of the ball simultaneously. He put that to rest. Ohtani popped 46 home runs while turning in 130 1/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball en route to a unanimous selection as AL MVP. He was arguably better the following year, working to a 2.33 ERA over 28 starts while hitting .273/.356/.519 with 34 homers.
Now, Ohtani hits free agency on the heels of his best offensive showing. He led the American League with 44 home runs while hitting .304/.412/.654 across 599 plate appearances. The left-handed hitter cut his strikeouts to a career-low 23.9% clip, walked at a massive 15.2% rate, and led all qualified batters in slugging percentage. He posted a 3.14 ERA through 132 innings, striking out an excellent 31.5% of opponents. Only a record-setting home run barrage from Aaron Judge last year has kept Ohtani from three consecutive MVP awards. He’s the best player in the world, accomplishing things that leave MLB players and star athletes from other sports in awe.
His was shaping up to be a spotless free agent case. That changed on August 24, when Ohtani left the mound two innings into the first game of a doubleheader with arm fatigue. He underwent imaging that afternoon, which revealed he’d again suffered a tear in his UCL. Ohtani played the nightcap as the DH before the Halos announced that his season as a pitcher was finished. A week later, his reps at CAA said he’d require a procedure to address the issue.
Ohtani hit through the UCL injury for another 10 games. An oblique strain suffered during batting practice in mid-September ended his season. He underwent surgery to repair the UCL on September 19. The specific procedure remains unclear, though it’s expected to keep him off the mound until 2025. According to his representatives, Ohtani will be able to hit by next Opening Day and could serve as a DH all season.
The surgery throws a wrench into his free agent case. Yet even if Ohtani were strictly a designated hitter, he’d be the top player in this year’s class. Among qualified hitters over the last three seasons, he’s ninth in on-base percentage and trails only Judge in slugging. While Ohtani’s 2023 wasn’t quite as impressive as Judge’s 2022 campaign offensively, he’s not that far behind the Yankee slugger as a hitter alone.
Ohtani has made clear he intends to pitch again when healthy. There’s risk with any pitcher who has twice undergone major elbow surgery. Perhaps Ohtani will never regain his velocity or will struggle with command. Within the range of outcomes is the chance that he recaptures top-of-the-rotation form, though. Among pitchers with 300+ innings over the last three seasons, Ohtani ranks sixth in ERA (2.84) and fourth in strikeout percentage (31.4%). He’s a possible Cy Young contender.
The market should respond with a record-setting deal. One could argue for Ohtani to seek a short-term pact that shatters the annual salary record in hopes of getting back to free agency after he reestablishes his health as a pitcher in 2025. While that’s a potential consideration, he shouldn’t have any problem establishing a much higher guarantee record as is.
Ohtani turned 29 in July. Judge, whose $360MM pact with the Yankees is the largest contract in MLB history, turned 31 in the first April of his deal. Ohtani offers upside on the mound that Judge didn’t provide. Even if the injuries mounted to the point where it weren’t viable for him to continue pitching, he’d likely be an asset in the corner outfield. Ohtani played the outfield in Japan and is an above-average runner. He has been a DH in the majors so as not to overwork him as a pitcher, not because he’s a lumbering slugger. The “downside” of Ohtani not pitching is that he could be an everyday corner outfielder.
Between the youth, the unprecedented production and his marketability as an international superstar, Ohtani remains the best free agent in recent memory (potentially ever). Every high-payroll club will have interest. One of the Angels’ selling points last time around was that they were willing to afford Ohtani wide leeway in setting his usage. That’ll surely be a consideration, as will a franchise’s competitive outlook. Geography could be a factor.
During his last free agent trip, Ohtani reportedly considered the Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, Giants, Mariners and Cubs in addition to the Halos. All but Chicago are Western division teams, though Ohtani hasn’t publicly declared a preference for the West Coast. All those clubs will be involved, while traditionally big spenders like the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Astros should be in the fray. Ohtani received and will obviously reject the qualifying offer. He’ll cost a signing team a draft choice (and potentially international bonus space). That’s a marginal consideration for a player this good.
There’s no precedent in forecasting where teams might draw the line. His camp figures to target $500MM as a round goal. A 12-year pact would run through his age-40 campaign, a mark reached by each of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado last offseason. Judge was paid through 39. Teams showed increased willingness to stretch contract length to diminish the average annual salary for luxury tax purposes. A 12-year deal worth half a billion dollars would involve a $41.667MM AAV that ranks third in MLB history. Getting to $44MM annually would edge past Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer ($43.333MM) for the all-time record. We expect a team to offer the best of worlds — the AAV record and a pact running through age-40 — which would bring the guarantee to an eye-popping $528MM.
Signed with Dodgers for ten years, $700MM. Includes deferred money.
2. Cody Bellinger. Twelve years, $264MM
Tim: Yankees / Anthony: Giants / Darragh: Giants
Bellinger hit 39 homers as a 21-year-old en route to the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year. While his production took a dip in year two, he more than returned to form with an MVP showing in 2019. Bellinger hit .305/.406/.629 with 47 longballs, edging out Christian Yelich as the league’s most valuable player.
Then came an offensive downturn. Bellinger was fine but unexceptional during the 2020 shortened regular season. While he had a strong postseason to help the Dodgers to a World Series, it wasn’t without consequence. While celebrating a home run with teammate Enrique Hernandez in Game 7 of the NL Championship Series, Bellinger dislocated his right shoulder. He played in the Fall Classic before undergoing surgery that November.
The next two seasons were disastrous. Bellinger hit .165/.240/.302 around three injured list stints (none related to the shoulder) in 2021. He was marginally better the following season, posting a .210/.265/.389 slash through 144 games.
“He was hurt, plain and simple,” agent Scott Boras told Bob Nightengale of USA Today in August. “He has surgery, and the Dodgers asked him to play with a 35% strength deficiency, and then with COVID, he was deprived of the expert medical treatment. He didn’t have the shoulder strength.” Boras subsequently walked back the implication the Dodgers had mishandled the situation after L.A. president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times that he “(found) it to be a very convenient narrative.”
The Dodgers declined to tender Bellinger an arbitration contract last winter. He fielded reported interest from the Rockies, Giants, Yankees and Blue Jays before signing a $17.5MM deal with the Cubs. It was a classic pillow contract. Rarely do one of those deals work out quite this well. Bellinger had a resurgent season, hitting .307/.356/.525 over 556 plate appearances. He connected on 26 homers, stole 20 bases and slashed his strikeout rate to a career-low 15.6%. Bellinger missed a few weeks with a left knee contusion but was otherwise healthy. He logged 686 innings in center field and rated as a plus defender in 421 2/3 frames at first base.
It’d be simplistic to say Bellinger is back to his MVP form. He homered in 4.7% of his plate appearances this year after connecting on a big fly 6% of the time during his first three seasons. Bellinger’s batted ball metrics are uninspiring. His 31.4% hard contact rate (defined as an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher) is almost nine percentage points below league average; it’s well down from the 45% range at which he has squaring balls up during his MVP season.
At the same time, there are a lot of positives on the résumé. The shoulder certainly appears healthier now than it has in the past two years. He’s putting more balls in play, which reduces the pressure to hit for power. Bellinger remains a quality defender in either center field or at first base. He’s an above-average baserunner. He won’t turn 29 until July, meaning next season is technically his age-28 campaign. The free agent class for hitters drops off precipitously behind him, particularly in center field. The shoulder offers a partial if incomplete explanation for his 2021-22 struggles.
Another former MVP, Kris Bryant, landed a $182MM deal with the Rockies two winters back on the heels of a lesser platform year. Bryant was two years older than Bellinger is now. Brandon Nimmo reset the center field market with a $20.25MM annual value over eight seasons from the Mets at age 30. He’d never reached Bellinger’s MVP heights, although he’d also never experienced anything like his downturn. Nimmo’s deal ran through age 37. Bogaerts was paid through 40 off a very similar platform showing to Bellinger’s 2023, albeit with more career consistency.
We’re betting on Bellinger’s youth winning out. Bogaerts, Machado, Turner and Rafael Devers all signed decade-long deals last winter as teams sought to diminish the AAV. An 11-year or 12-year pact could be on the table. A $22MM AAV over 12 years would narrowly beat Nimmo’s annual salaries while pushing past $250MM total.
The Cubs made Bellinger a qualifying offer, so he’ll cost a signing team a draft choice. Each of San Francisco, the Yankees, and Toronto could check back in. Other clubs may not need center field help but could move younger outfielders around. The Cubs could try to retain him even with top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong having reached the majors.
Signed with Cubs for three years, $80MM.
3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Nine years, $225MM
Tim: Giants / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Yankees
Yamamoto is the top Japanese pitcher (aside from Ohtani) to make the jump to the Majors in years. The right-hander reached Japan’s highest level as an 18-year-old back in 2017. He found success by his second season and established himself in the Orix Buffaloes’ rotation by 2019, his age-20 season.
That year, Yamamoto worked to a 1.95 ERA through 143 innings. It kicked off a five-year stretch of laughable run prevention. He didn’t allow more than 2.20 earned runs per nine in any of his final five seasons in NPB. He hits the market on the heels of three consecutive sub-2.00 showings. Since the start of 2021, he carries a 1.44 ERA at the second-highest level of professional baseball.
Yamamoto won consecutive Sawamura awards as NPB’s best pitcher in 2021 and ’22. He arguably improved on that performance, posting a 1.21 ERA through 164 innings this year. That’s a half-run lower than the league’s second-place finisher. Yamamoto punched out 26.6% of opposing hitters, while his 169 total strikeouts ranked second in the league. He paired that with a minuscule 4.4% walk rate that is almost half the MLB average. He allowed just two home runs. Yamamoto capped his NPB pitching career with an epic performance in Game 6 of the Japan Series, striking out a record 14 while throwing 138 pitches.
Kodai Senga posted a 1.94 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate during his final season in NPB. Some scouts suggested Senga’s repertoire and/or fringy command projected him to a bullpen future at the MLB level. His first MLB season was excellent, as he pitched to a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts for the Mets after signing a $75MM deal.
Yamamoto is unanimously viewed as a better pitcher. He has a longer track record of statistical dominance and stronger reviews from scouts. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke project Yamamoto as a high-end big league starter, likely as a #2 arm in a strong rotation. He’s on the smaller side for a starting pitcher, listed at 5’10” and 176 pounds. Yet there aren’t many reservations about him holding up physically and there’s no question he’ll do very well financially.
On top of the statistical dominance and strong scouting reports, Yamamoto hits the market at an age almost never seen for a starter. He was born in August 1998, meaning he’ll be entering his age-25 season. It’s essentially impossible for a pitcher coming through the six-year MLB reserve system to get to free agency that young. The most recent comparison was Masahiro Tanaka, who joined the Yankees on a seven-year, $155MM pact in advance of his age-25 season in 2014.
With nearly a decade since the Tanaka deal, Yamamoto should handily surpass that number based on inflation alone. Gerrit Cole is the only pitcher to sign a nine-year guarantee. Aside from Cole, commitments to top starters tend to stop at seven years. Those typically begin in the pitcher’s age-29 or older season, however. It’s not uncommon to see pitchers paid through 36 or 37.
That probably be won’t the case for Yamamoto. A commitment of 11 or 12 years would entail injury risk, while there’s still some amount of uncertainty until he matches up with major league hitters. Eight years feels like the floor, with a decent chance he matches Cole’s nine-year term. It’s possible his camp negotiates an opt-out clause midway through the deal, as he’s certainly young enough to have another bite at the apple a few years from now.
In addition to the sum guaranteed to the player, a signing team will have to send money to the Buffaloes. Yamamoto will be made available via the posting system, since he didn’t reach the requisite nine years of NPB service time to qualify for full international free agency. The MLB team will pay a fee to the Buffaloes in proportion to the size of Yamamoto’s contract. They’ll owe the NPB club 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Unlike many of the other top free agents, he wouldn’t cost a signing team a draft choice because the qualifying offer is not in play.
Yamamoto has 45 days from his official posting date to sign; he’d otherwise remain in NPB. He will find a deal within the posting window. He’s young enough to appeal to teams at various stages of their competitive timelines. Any team that runs the kind of payroll to accommodate a $200MM+ free agent contract could be involved. The Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Giants, Tigers, Cubs and Rangers all figure to check in, although upwards of half the league could realistically be in play.
Signed with Dodgers for 12 years, $325MM. Additional $50.625MM posting fee paid to Orix Buffaloes.
4. Blake Snell. Seven years, $200MM
Tim: Phillies / Anthony: Red Sox / Darragh: Dodgers
Snell can reach heights matched by few pitchers. The left-hander is coming off his second Cy Young-caliber showing and ERA title alike. That he’s never received a single Cy Young vote outside the seasons in which he has won the award hints at the volatility in his profile, but there might not be any starting pitchers more capable of blowing away an opposing lineup when he’s on.
The run Snell put together from June onward was remarkable. After a pedestrian first couple months, the 6’4″ hurler turned in a 1.23 ERA while fanning 35% of batters faced through his final 23 starts. His typically scattershot command was still present, as he walked 13.2% of opponents. It didn’t matter because hitters were incapable of touching him whenever he was around the strike zone.
It was a perfect time for the best stretch of Snell’s career, yet he’d proven himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm even before that run of utter dominance. Snell rode a 1.89 ERA to the 2018 American League Cy Young while pitching for the Rays. He has allowed fewer than 3.55 earned runs per nine in five of his eight MLB campaigns. In the three years since being dealt from Tampa Bay to the Padres, he put together a 3.15 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout rate in 83 starts. Snell is widely expected to land the 2023 NL Cy Young award on November 15th.
It’s an unconventional profile for an ace. Snell issued an MLB-leading 99 walks this past season. Of the 95 starting pitchers with 300+ innings over the last three years, none has handed out free passes at a higher rate than his 12% clip. Snell isn’t as efficient as most elite starters. He has averaged 5.19 innings per start for his career, and while that’s partially a reflection of the Rays’ aggressive bullpen management, he was working around 5 2/3 frames per appearance with the Padres this year. Snell reached the 180-inning threshold in his two (likely) Cy Young campaigns; he has otherwise never thrown even 130 innings in a season.
While the lack of volume is somewhat concerning, the league is increasingly skewing toward rate performance over bulk innings. Carlos Rodon landed a $162MM pact last winter without having a single 180-inning season to his name. Snell doesn’t have the same level of injury concern as Rodon, who has previously undergone Tommy John surgery and an arthroscopic shoulder procedure. Snell underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove loose bodies in 2019; he’s battled fairly minor adductor (groin) issues in 2021-22 and hasn’t been on the injured list since May 2022.
Snell also simply has hit levels of dominance than Rodon didn’t reach. He’s coming off a better platform season, especially in the second half. Rodon has never finished higher than fifth in Cy Young balloting. Snell is a year older than Rodon was, turning 31 in December, but he has the superior résumé and should land the loftier deal. His camp figures to take aim at $200MM and could look to beat the $217MM which David Price received from the Red Sox.
Snell received and will reject a qualifying offer from San Diego. Any traditional big spender might be involved in the market. The Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Tigers, Cubs and Orioles all have payroll room and could theoretically pursue a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Signed with Giants for two years, $62MM.
5. Aaron Nola. Six years, $150MM
Tim: Cardinals/ Anthony: Cardinals / Darragh: Cardinals
A career-long Phillie, Nola hits the open market for the first time. Philadelphia selected the LSU product with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft. Within a year, he’d reached the big leagues, working to a 3.59 ERA over his first 13 starts. An elbow strain limited him to 20 appearances during his sophomore campaign. Since then, the right-hander has been the picture of durability.
Nola’s only injured list stints over the past seven seasons have been for a lower back strain in 2017 and a stint on the virus list in 2021. He has surpassed 160 innings in each of the last six full schedules and took a full slate of 12 turns in 2020. Only Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings over that span.
In recognition of that durability, Philadelphia signed Nola to a $45MM extension in 2019. The contract bought out two free agent seasons. While Nola doesn’t have Cole’s level of dominance, he is far more than an innings eater. The right-hander has turned in a sub-4.00 ERA in five of the last seven seasons despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home ballpark and typically operating in front of lackluster defenses. His run prevention has been spotty of late. Nola sandwiched a 3.25 showing in 2022 with middling ERA figures (4.63 and 4.46, respectively) in 2021 and 2023.
A slightly elevated home run rate was the main culprit for Nola’s middling ERA this year. He surrendered 1.49 homers per nine innings, above the 1.32 HR/9 league average for starters. While it’s the first time the longball has given Nola much trouble, his ground-ball percentage has dropped from the 50% range to just above 40% in each of the last three years.
Nola has pristine command, walking fewer than 6% of opposing hitters three years running. He paired that with a strikeout rate just below 30% from 2021-22. That dropped to 25.5% this year, although that’s largely a reflection of a slow start. From June onward, Nola punched out 27.9% of opponents against a 5.5% walk rate.
It’s not a traditional power profile. Nola averaged 92.7 MPH on his fastball and 79.4 MPH on the curveball that is his best offering. Despite the pedestrian velocity, he’s shown the ability to post borderline ace-caliber results while shouldering as heavy a workload as any major league pitcher. Nola has three top-10 Cy Young finishes on his résumé, including a fourth-place nod in 2022.
He concluded this year on a strong note. Nola tossed 23 innings over four playoff starts, working to a 2.35 ERA. He struck out 23 while walking four to help the Phils within one game of a second straight pennant.
Since he reached the majors just after his 22nd birthday, Nola is reasonably young despite the early-career extension. He turns 31 in June. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last month that his camp had sought an eight-year pact that topped $200MM during extension talks with the Phils this spring. The team preferred a four- or five-year term.
Nola received and will decline a qualifying offer. He’s entering his age-31 season, an age at which Jon Lester (six years, $155MM), Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Yu Darvish (six years, $126MM) all landed nine-figure guarantees. Nola is a year older than Carlos Rodon (six years, $162MM) was last offseason and didn’t quite show the same upside, although he has far better durability and a more consistent track record. The Cardinals have already been linked to Nola, while Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has called it a priority to bring him back. More than a third of the league could be involved in his market.
Signed with Phillies for seven years, $172MM.
6. Jordan Montgomery. Six years, $150MM
Tim: Rangers / Anthony: Mets / Darragh: Giants
Montgomery began his career as a fourth-round draftee of the Yankees. The left-hander reached the majors in 2017, debuting with 29 starts of 3.88 ERA ball. The promising debut was interrupted by a Tommy John surgery midway through his second year. He barely pitched between 2018-19 and struggled to a 5.11 ERA over 10 starts during the shortened 2020 campaign.
The South Carolina product returned to form in 2021. He worked to a 3.83 ERA over 30 starts. He owned a 3.69 mark across 21 outings the next season before surprisingly finding himself in a deadline trade. After deciding Montgomery wasn’t likely to factor in their playoff rotation, the Yankees traded him to the Cardinals for Harrison Bader. The left-hander continued plugging along, posting a 3.11 ERA in 11 starts for St. Louis down the stretch.
Montgomery was featured in another deadline deal this past summer. This one was far more predictable. St. Louis dropped out of contention almost immediately and became an obvious seller. After working to a 3.42 ERA over 21 starts, Montgomery positioned himself as arguably the top rental starter available. St. Louis sent him to the Rangers a couple days before the deadline. He continued pitching well in Arlington, working to a 2.79 ERA in 11 appearances.
Montgomery further burnished his résumé with 31 innings of 2.90 ball for the World Champion Rangers. A scoreless seven-inning outing over the Rays was a huge factor in the Rangers winning the Wild Card series. The lefty pitched well in a pair of ALCS starts against the Astros and added a clutch Game 7 relief outing. Montgomery’s lone World Series start, in which he allowed four runs in six frames, didn’t advance the Rangers’ cause but probably didn’t diminish his postseason success overall.
Over the past three seasons, Montgomery owns a 3.48 ERA across 94 starts. His 22.5% strikeout rate is around average, while he has kept the walks to a tidy 6.2% clip. It’s not an overpowering profile, but Montgomery does everything well. He’s a consistent strike-thrower who misses enough bats and handles hitters of either handedness. Both his sinker and four-seam average a bit north of 93 MPH, while his changeup and curveball are quality secondary offerings. Since the Tommy John procedure, he has been durable.
Montgomery looks like a safe bet for upper mid-rotation production. He fits as a #2 or high-end #3 starter on a contender. The midseason trade adds to the appeal. Not only did he demonstrate he can pitch in the postseason, but changing teams rendered him ineligible for the qualifying offer. Aside from Yamamoto, he’s the clear best pitcher available who wouldn’t cost a signing team a draft pick.
Though they’re older comps, the six-year contracts received by fellow southpaws Jon Lester and Patrick Corbin may be Montgomery’s range. Some suitors may stop at five years, as happened with Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman, but a club may be able to differentiate its offer by adding a sixth year. Despite trading Montgomery, the Cardinals or Yankees could look to re-engage given their clear rotation needs. Montgomery certainly left a positive impression on the Rangers. The Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Mets, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Red Sox, and Tigers also make some measure of sense.
Signed with Diamondbacks for one year, $25MM.
7. Matt Chapman. Six years, $150MM
Tim: Giants / Anthony: Phillies / Darragh: Cubs
Chapman was a down-ballot MVP candidate during his first few seasons in Oakland. He paired elite defensive grades at third base with a slugging percentage north of .500 in three straight years, headlined by a 36-homer campaign in 2019. His 2020 season was cut short by a torn labrum in his right hip that required surgery.
Since that procedure, Chapman hasn’t been the same caliber of hitter. He hit .210/.314/.403 with a 32.5% strikeout rate in 2021. The A’s dealt him to the Blue Jays the following offseason. Over two seasons in Toronto, the right-handed hitter put up a .234/.327/.429 slash. He draws plenty of walks and has cut his strikeouts a bit from their 2020-21 peak, yet he’s still punching out at an elevated 27.8% clip over the last two years.
Chapman was on a torrid stretch to start this season, running a .384/.465/.687 mark with a dramatically improved 22.8% strikeout rate through the first month. From May onwards, he limped to a .205/.298/.361 slash while striking out 30% of the time. The Jays were hitting him in the bottom third of the order down the stretch.
Volatility aside, the end line was a typical Chapman season. He hit .240/.330/.424 with 17 homers through 581 plate appearances. He lost a couple weeks towards the tail end with a sprained right middle finger. It wasn’t a bad season overall considering he’s still one of the sport’s best infielders. A four-time Gold Glove winner (including this year), he ranks fifth among third basemen with 14 Defensive Runs Saved over the last two seasons.
The total package makes Chapman an above-average regular. As he gets further away from his peak days in Oakland, it’s harder for teams to sell themselves on him hitting at a middle-of-the-order level, although his batted-ball metrics remain tantalizing. Chapman sits in the 98th percentile of MLB hitters in average exit velocity and barrel rate, per Statcast, and no qualified batter topped his 56.4% hard-hit rate. That profile could lead some teams to dream on a return to form.
Even if that doesn’t come to pass, that shouldn’t rule out a weighty long-term deal. After all, none of Dansby Swanson, Trevor Story or Javier Baez were elite hitters going into free agency, yet they each landed guarantees between $140MM and $177MM. While they’re all shortstops, Chapman fits a broadly similar profile: a plus defensive infielder with power but enough swing-and-miss to put a cap on the offensive ceiling.
In a market light on position players, Chapman’s glove gives him one of the more stable floors. He’ll be 31 in April and should look for five- or six-year deals after rejecting a qualifying offer from Toronto. The Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Tigers, Phillies, and incumbent Jays could all show interest.
Signed with Giants for three years, $54MM.
8. Josh Hader. Six years, $110MM
Tim: Rangers / Anthony: Rangers / Darragh: Rangers
Hader reestablished himself as one of the sport’s best relievers with a dazzling platform year. He worked to a 1.28 ERA across 56 1/3 innings. Hader struck out 36.8% of opposing hitters, picked up swinging strikes on almost 16% of his offerings, and dominated opponents of either handedness.
A multi-inning weapon early in his career, the southpaw is now a prototypical closer. He hasn’t worked more than one inning in a regular season appearance since 2019. Hader is an excellent ninth inning arm, successfully finishing 103 of 113 opportunities (a 91.2% success rate) over the last three years.
This was Hader’s fifth season with a sub-3.00 ERA and the second time he allowed fewer than two earned runs per nine. His strikeout rate has dipped from its 47.8% peak but remains one of the game’s best. Hader’s 5.22 ERA from 2022 looks like a blip, the kind of anomalous season that sometimes affects even elite relievers.
So long as that spike doesn’t come in the pitcher’s platform season, teams can look past it. Edwin Diaz turned in a 5.59 ERA in 2019 amidst a five-year run in which he posted three sub-2.00 showings. That didn’t impact Diaz’s market value. The Mets righty became the first reliever to land nine figures, securing a five-year, $102MM pact last winter.
That’s the obvious benchmark for Hader’s camp. His career 2.50 ERA is nearly half a run lower than Diaz’s 2.93 figure. Diaz throws harder and was a year younger than Hader is now, but the latter could get a slight edge as a left-hander. Hader will have the benefit of open-market bidding, while Diaz was negotiating exclusively with the Mets when he signed his deal just before free agency. It seems likely Hader will set a new record for a reliever contract, even if it’d take a sixth year to do so. Higher-payroll clubs will have more leeway to accommodate a nine-figure investment, although every team would improve by adding Hader to the bullpen. The Padres made him a qualifying offer, which he’ll reject.
Signed with Astros for five years, $95MM.
9. Sonny Gray. Four years, $90MM
Tim: Braves / Anthony: Dodgers / Darragh: Tigers
Gray, who turns 34 tomorrow, is likely to earn AL Cy Young votes after placing second in the American League with a 2.79 ERA. The Twins’ 11-year veteran righty is one of the more desirable starting pitchers on the market this winter, despite his age and the burden of the qualifying offer.
The A’s drafted Gray 18th overall back in 2011 out of Vanderbilt. Prior to the 2012 season, Gray reached #65 on Baseball America’s prospect rankings, projecting as a potential #2 starter despite standing at 5’10”. He dropped off the list after struggling in his first full pro season but had immediate MLB success upon reaching Oakland in the summer of 2013.
The high point of Gray’s excellent run with the A’s was his 2015 season, in which he earned his first All-Star nod and finished third in the AL Cy Young voting. He stumbled to a 5.69 ERA in 22 starts the following year, a season in which he hit the IL for a strained right trapezius and a subsequent forearm strain.
Gray started the 2017 season on the IL with a lat strain, but returned to form enough to earn himself a trade to the Yankees. He pitched well for the remainder of that season, punctuated by a strong start in Game 4 of the ALCS.
Gray struggled for the Yankees in 2018, losing his rotation spot by August. After some tough words from Yankees GM Brian Cashman, Gray was shipped to the Reds in January 2019 as part of a three-team trade. The pitcher agreed to a three-year extension with a fourth-year club option as part of the deal. Gray rebounded in his first year in Cincinnati, earning another All-Star selection while finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting. After that season, Gray underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow.
Gray worked around minor injuries to post decent results for the rest of his Reds career before being dealt to the Twins in March 2022 as part of the post-lockout frenzy. Despite IL stints that year for hamstring and pectoral strains, Gray pitched to a 3.08 ERA in 24 starts. The Twins picked up his club option for 2023. They were rewarded with a healthy and effective All-Star season: a 2.79 ERA, 24.3 K%, 7.3 BB%, and 47.3% groundball rate in 184 innings. Gray was also effective in a Wild Card series start, though he struggled in his ALDS outing.
This is Gray’s first foray into free agency, and he’ll turn down a qualifying offer from the Twins. He’s had a very successful career to date. In fact, for players 5’10” or shorter, Gray leads all pitchers in bWAR in the Wild Card era (1995 to present). He’s still tinkering at this stage in his career, reducing his fastball and curveball usage while increasing sliders, cutters, and change-ups.
Starting pitchers entering their age 34 or older season almost never exceed three years in free agency, with the exception of Jacob deGrom getting five. We still think Gray is likely to surpass Chris Bassitt’s three-year, $63MM deal by securing a fourth year. As a pitcher whose age likely caps his contract at four years, Gray will be a top target for teams uninterested in ponying up for Montgomery, Nola, Snell, or Yamamoto. The Twins may look to retain Gray, but otherwise the Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Marlins, Mets, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, Tigers, and White Sox could be suitors.
Signed with Cardinals for three years, $75MM.
10. Shota Imanaga. Five years, $85MM
Tim: Cubs / Anthony: Cubs / Darragh: Angels
Imanaga is the second-best pitcher in this year’s class of NPB starters. A 5’10” left-hander, he reached Japan’s top level as a 22-year-old in 2016. Imanaga has pitched parts of eight seasons for the Yokohama BayStars, working to a 3.18 ERA in just over 1000 innings. He has posted consecutive sub-3.00 showings over the last two years, following up a 2.26 ERA in 2022 with a 2.80 mark across 148 innings this past season. World Baseball Classic fans may be familiar with Imanaga, who started Japan’s WBC final win over the United States. He pitched two innings, allowing one run on a Trea Turner homer with a pair of strikeouts.
His 174 strikeouts narrowly topped Yamamoto’s 169 for the NPB lead. Imanaga punched out an excellent 29.2% of batters faced against a 4% walk rate. While the strikeout and walk profile was slightly superior to Yamamoto’s, he was a lot more susceptible to home runs. Imanaga was tagged for 17 longballs, more than Yamamoto has surrendered over the past three seasons combined.
MLBTR’s contacts have described Imanaga as a #3/4 starter in the majors. His fastball typically operates in the low-90s but he was working in the 94-96 MPH range in shorter stints during the WBC. Sources to whom MLBTR spoke indicated that Imanaga isn’t as highly regarded a pitcher as Mets righty Kodai Senga, who inked a five-year, $75MM contract last offseason. However, that guarantee for Senga now looks like a bargain, given his excellent debut campaign in Queens. As such, we feel that even with a perhaps lesser profile, Imanaga could secure a larger guarantee.
Imanaga underwent season-ending shoulder surgery back in 2020. He has returned from that procedure to log around 150 innings in each of the past three years. He turned 30 in September and could find a four or five-year deal. As with Yamamoto, Imanaga is available via the posting system as opposed to unrestricted free agency. He’ll have 45 days to sign from the official posting date and the MLB team will owe the BayStars a release fee.
Signed with Cubs for four years, $53MM.
11. Eduardo Rodriguez. Four years, $82MM
Tim: Red Sox / Anthony: Reds / Darragh: White Sox
Rodriguez, 31 in April, signed a five-year, $77MM deal with the Tigers in November of 2021. That contract included an opt-out after 2023, which Rodriguez chose in lieu of the remaining three years and $49MM.
Rodriguez began his MLB career with the Red Sox in 2015, after the Orioles dealt him for Andrew Miller. He peaked with Boston in 2019, finishing sixth in the AL Cy Young voting after making 34 starts with a 3.81 ERA.
After getting COVID-19 in 2020, Rodriguez developed myocarditis. The heart condition caused him to miss that season, but he returned with a solid 2021 campaign. Bolstered by strong peripheral stats, E-Rod landed the big contract with Detroit despite a 4.74 ERA and a qualifying offer.
It’s been an unconventional couple of years in Detroit for Rodriguez. He started his Tigers career in 2022 with high hopes and the Opening Day nod but landed on the IL in late May with a left ribcage strain. While on a rehab assignment, Rodriguez was transferred to the restricted list due to a marital issue. In a situation former Tigers GM Al Avila described as “unusual,” the two parties did not have contact for roughly a month. The full explanation for Rodriguez’s time on the restricted list is not publicly known, but will surely be communicated to suitors. When Rodriguez eventually returned, the layoff had surpassed three months. He posted a career-worst 18.4 K% in his 91 innings in 2022.
Rodriguez again snagged the Opening Day nod in 2023, for a Tigers club with a new GM and lowered expectations. He started the season by ripping off 11 starts with a 2.13 ERA, 25.5 K%, and 6.1 BB%. At that point, Rodriguez went on the IL with a ruptured A4 pulley in his left index finger. He returned on the shorter side of a projected six-to-eight week recovery period.
That gave Rodriguez four starts to re-establish his health before the trade deadline. With the Tigers going nowhere this year and Rodriguez a threat to opt out after the season, it made sense for Detroit to find a trade for the lefty despite his ten-team no-trade clause.
The Tigers agreed to a deal with one of the teams on Rodriguez’s list, the Dodgers, and the player exercised his right to veto the trade. In talking to reporters about the decision, Rodriguez cited “my future and my family.” He later said the decision was “nothing against the Dodgers or the West Coast or whatever,” and it was reported that he wanted to stay closer to family that liked Detroit and was otherwise based in Miami.
According to Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic, Rodriguez’s agent Gene Mato proposed an additional year at $20MM on Rodriguez’s contract if he’d accepted the trade to the Dodgers and declined to opt out after the season. That suggests that being paid $69MM over the four-year span of 2024-27 would have been enough for Rodriguez and his family to get past their geographic preferences. It appears that a lack of time to negotiate a new contract killed the Dodgers trade more so than any aversion to the West Coast on the part of Rodriguez.
Despite his injury this year, Rodriguez tallied a healthy 152 ⅔ innings for the Tigers with a career-best 3.30 ERA. His strikeout rate and Statcast numbers are less impressive than his previous walk year, and of course he’s now two years older. He is at least free of the qualifying offer burden.
Vetoing a trade, Rodriguez’s contractual right, shouldn’t necessarily come with a stigma. But there could be some teams, particularly on the West Coast, that may be less inclined to pursue Rodriguez after he chose not to jump into a pennant race for three months. Teams will also consider Rodriguez’s time on the restricted list in ‘22. Even so, sometimes just two serious suitors can drive up a player’s price.
The mid-tier starting pitcher market moved in Rodriguez’s favor since his last free agent experience. Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker set a new standard in the four-year, $68-72MM range, and it could be argued that Rodriguez’s abilities surpass that pair. We’re predicting a four-year contract, but a five-year deal could be on the table here, with a market comparable to that of Gray.
Signed with Diamondbacks for four years, $80MM.
12. Teoscar Hernandez. Four years, $80MM
Tim: Angels / Anthony: Angels / Darragh: White Sox
Hernandez entered the season as one of the likelier nine-figure hitters in a weak offensive class. Between 2020-22, the right-handed hitter raked at a .283/.333/.519 clip in over 1300 plate appearances for the Blue Jays. Toronto dealt him to the Mariners for reliever Erik Swanson and a pitching prospect before his final season of arbitration.
His potential lone season in Seattle was below those standards. Hernandez hit .258/.305/.435 with 26 homers through 678 trips to the plate. His 31.1% strikeout rate was his highest since 2019, while he walked at a career-low 5.6% clip. Hernandez has always made his living more from power than a great plate approach. This year’s .258 average and .305 on-base percentage were nevertheless his worst since 2019.
Hernandez seemed to turn a corner after a slow start. He had an excellent June and was one of the game’s top hitters in August. That sandwiched a dreadful July, though, and he limped to a .227/.287/.336 line in the season’s final month.
Optimistic teams could point to Hernandez’s home/road splits. He hit just .217/.263/.380 at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park; his .295/.344/.486 slash away from Seattle was more characteristic. Perhaps it was simply an ill-timed platform year. In a market where there aren’t many alternatives, Hernandez is still one of the top options for teams seeking a middle-of-the-order bat. He typically grades as a below-average defender in the corner outfield despite above-average sprint speed and arm strength. DRS and Statcast both felt he was roughly average in right field this past season.
Kyle Schwarber and Marcell Ozuna landed four-year deals worth $79MM and $64MM, respectively. Nick Castellanos secured $100MM over five seasons. Hernandez has a little more defensive value than that group and is typically a comparable or better hitter. His platform year was below theirs, though he’s also facing less competition. Surprisingly, the Mariners neglected to make a qualifying offer to Hernandez, who will now hit the market free of that burden. The White Sox, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Marlins, Dodgers, Rockies and his old team in Toronto could all have interest.
Signed with Dodgers for one year, $23.5MM.
13. Jeimer Candelario. Four years, $70MM
Tim: Cubs / Anthony: Royals / Darragh: Blue Jays
Candelario settled for a $5MM contract a year ago after being non-tendered by the Tigers. He’s in line for a much more lucrative payday after a strong bounceback campaign. The switch-hitting infielder put together a .258/.342/.481 line in 99 games for the Nationals. Washington flipped him to the Cubs for a pair of prospects at the deadline. His .234/.318/.445 showing for Chicago was a little below his early-season level.
The overall season line still stands at an impressive .251/.336/.471. Candelario hit 22 homers and 39 doubles, three off his league-leading 42 doubles from two seasons prior. He draws a decent number of walks, strikes out at a roughly league average clip, and has solid power. Candelario hits at a slightly above-average level from both sides of the plate and owns a .254/.328/.437 slash over the last four seasons. The down 2022 that led Detroit to cut him loose like the outlier amidst otherwise solid production.
Candelario can play either corner infield spot. He’s a roughly league average defender at third base and should be able to stick there for a few years. He’s entering his age-30 season and won’t cost a signing team a draft choice thanks to the midseason trade. He could land four years in a similar salary range as Mike Moustakas and Chris Taylor. The Cubs could try to keep him around, while other potential suitors include the D-Backs, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays and Giants.
Signed with Reds for three years, $45MM.
14. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Four years, $54MM
Tim: Royals / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Mariners
Gurriel played parts of six seasons at Cuba’s highest level before leaving the country alongside older brother Yuli Gurriel in February 2016. Nine months later, the younger Gurriel brother signed a seven-year, $22MM pact with the Blue Jays. The deal allowed him to become a free agent at contract’s end even if he didn’t reach the traditional six years of MLB service.
That’s what happened, as Gurriel spent his first season and a half in the Toronto farm system. He debuted in 2018 and showed a decent amount of offensive promise. The Jays initially experimented with him as a middle infielder. By 2020, he’d been kicked to left field permanently.
Gurriel is a good enough hitter to meet the higher offensive expectations associated with left field. He has had an above-average wRC+ in every season of his MLB career. He’s an aggressive hitter who won’t draw many walks, but Gurriel hits for solid batting averages and has topped 20 home runs on three occasions. He was well on that pace during the abbreviated 2020 schedule as well.
The Jays included Gurriel alongside Gabriel Moreno to acquire Daulton Varsho last winter. While Moreno was the headliner, Gurriel had a typically solid season. He connected on a career-best 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 batting line. It was a volatile year — he was otherworldly in May, terrible in June and July, then very good down the stretch — but the aggregate production was solid. He also received a career-best +14 grade from Defensive Runs Saved over 778 innings. Statcast was less bullish, rating him as one run above average.
Gurriel popped three home runs in his 70 postseason plate appearances this year, including a shot in Game 4 of the World Series. Per the terms of his original contract, he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer.
Gurriel turned 30 in October. He has one of the better offensive track records among a weak free agent class. A three- or even four-year deal could be on the table. His camp could take aim at the four-year, $53MM contract secured by Avisail Garcia two offseasons ago. The Braves, Royals, Angels, Dodgers, and Mets could be potential matches.
Signed with Diamondbacks for three years, $42MM. Includes opt-out after second year.
15. Jung Hoo Lee. Five years, $50MM
Tim: Padres / Anthony: Padres / Darragh: Blue Jays
Lee is a left-handed hitting outfielder from South Korea who turned 25 in August. He has played parts of seven seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization, generally starring for the Nexen/Kiwoom Heroes. Lee has hit above .300 with an on-base percentage near or better than .400 every season. He didn’t hit for much power early on but slugged north of .500 each season from 2020-22.
His best year was 2022, when he hit .349/.421/.575 with 23 home runs. He took more than twice as many walks as strikeouts across 627 plate appearances. Lee drove in 113 and was named the KBO’s most valuable player. After the season, the Heroes announced they’d make him available to major league teams during the 2023-24 offseason through the posting system.
Unfortunately for Lee, his platform season was his worst in a few years. He hit .318/.406/.455 with just six homers in his first 86 games. He injured his left ankle in late July, necessitating season-ending surgery. The Heroes announced at the time that his rehab process would take roughly three months (link via JoongAng Daily). There’s nothing to suggest he won’t be ready for Spring Training.
Whether teams project Lee as a regular remains to be seen. One evaluator told MLBTR that Lee is unlikely to stick as a center fielder, which would put more pressure on his bat. Lee has strong pure contact skills, but there’s some concern he won’t hit for the kind of power necessary to play every day in the corner outfield. Of course, some clubs expressed similar worries about Masataka Yoshida when he was coming over from NPB a season ago. (Somewhat notably, both Yoshida and Lee are represented by the Boras Corporation.) The Red Sox had enough faith in the hit tool to guarantee him $90MM over five years, hinting at the variability in teams’ projections on some players making the jump from another professional league. Contracts for such players can be notoriously difficult to project.
As is the case with Yamamoto and Imanaga, a major league team would owe a posting fee to the Asian club. The calculation is the same as it is for the NPB players: 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. Lee’s potential suitors may depend on teams’ perception of his ability to play center field regularly in the Majors.
Signed six-year, $113MM with Giants. Includes opt-out after fourth year. Giants also pay $18.825MM posting fee to Kiwoom Heroes.
16. Jorge Soler. Three years, $45MM
Tim: Blue Jays / Anthony: Astros / Darragh: Mets
Soler, 32 in February, opted out of a $13MM salary for 2024. He’d signed a three-year, $36MM deal with the Marlins in March of 2022.
Soler defected from Cuba back in 2011, inking a $30MM deal with the Cubs. He was traded to the Royals for Wade Davis shortly after the Cubs’ 2016 championship. In 2019, Soler shook off a lengthy injury history on his way to a franchise-record 48 home runs with a 136 wRC+ for Kansas City. However, Soler fell all the way to an 86 wRC+ for the Royals over his next 536 plate appearances, leading them to trade him to the Braves at the 2021 deadline. He raked for the Braves and continued that success in the Fall Classic, winning World Series MVP. That strong finish, combined with consistently strong Statcast metrics, led the Marlins to reward Soler with the aforementioned three-year deal.
The up-and-down nature of Soler’s career continued, as he posted a 95 wRC+ with the Marlins in 2022 while missing time due to bilateral pelvis inflammation and lower-back spasms. Given the chance to forgo the remaining two years and $24MM on his deal, Soler chose to stay with Miami for 2023.
This year, Soler returned to form with 36 home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 580 plate appearances. He was able to avoid the IL until a September stint for an oblique strain. Never known for his defensive prowess, Soler was limited to 241 2/3 innings in the outfield this year. That marked his continued transition into a designated hitter, a role in which he logged 102 games.
Among free agents, only Shohei Ohtani hit more home runs than Soler’s 36 this year. His 126 wRC+ ranks behind only Ohtani and Cody Bellinger among qualified free agents. Soler’s Statcast page remains covered in red (a good thing).
Four-year deals have been hard to come by for designated hitters of Soler’s age, though Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez were older than Soler upon landing theirs after the 2014 season. Given his inconsistency and injury history, Soler seems more likely to land somewhere shy of Jose Abreu’s three-year, $58.5MM deal from last winter.
Signed with Giants for three years, $42MM.
17. Lucas Giolito. Two years, $44MM
Tim: Mets / Anthony: Orioles / Darragh: Mets
Giolito is one of the biggest wild cards in this winter’s class. A former first-round pick and arguably the game’s top pitching prospect, he headlined the 2016 Adam Eaton trade between the Nationals and White Sox. He spent most of 2017 in the minors and was bombed in his first extended MLB action the following year.
Everything clicked in 2019. Giolito posted his first of three consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings while cementing himself as a very durable starter. He appeared on Cy Young ballots in three straight seasons while posting a cumulative 3.47 ERA with a 30.7% strikeout rate in 427 2/3 innings.
While he looked like a strong #2 starter heading into 2022, Giolito’s past two seasons have been underwhelming. He has allowed almost five earned runs per nine innings pitched in both years. A fastball that averaged 94 MPH a few seasons ago is down slightly to the 92-93 MPH range. The whiffs have taken a corresponding step back; his 25.7% strikeout rate and 12.2% swinging-strike percentage remain better than average but are down from peak levels.
Giolito’s biggest issue has been the home run ball. He surrendered an AL-worst 41 longballs over 184 1/3 innings this past season, which he split between three teams. Traded from the White Sox to the Angels at the deadline, he landed in Cleveland a month later when the Halos shed salary via a massive waiver purge. Giolito’s homer issues heightened at each stop, resulting in an overall 4.88 ERA.
There’s still plenty to like about the pitcher. He posts solid strikeout and walk marks. His only injured list stints since 2020 were minimal stays for a hamstring strain and abdominal soreness. The 2022-23 version of Giolito is a capable innings-eater not dissimilar from Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker, each of whom landed four-year deals in the $70MM range last offseason. Giolito could receive similar proposals. Like those pitchers, he won’t be burdened by a qualifying offer, as the midseason change of teams renders him ineligible.
At the same time, there’s a case for Giolito to prioritize a shorter-term deal. He won’t turn 30 until next July. If he recaptures his 2019-21 form, five or six years well above $100MM could be back in play. How he approaches free agency could be based on risk tolerance. We’re projecting him to bet on himself, locking in a $44MM guarantee over two seasons while securing an opt-out clause that could get him back to free agency next winter — a similar deal to former teammate Carlos Rodon’s contract with the Giants two years back.
Signed with Red Sox for two years, $38.5MM. Includes opt-out after first year.
18. Marcus Stroman. Two years, $44MM
Tim: Dodgers / Anthony: Phillies / Darragh: Twins
Stroman joined the Cubs on a three-year, $71MM guarantee over the 2021-22 offseason. The deal allowed him to opt out after the first two seasons. The sinkerballer had a solid first year on the North Side, pitching to a 3.50 ERA behind a 51.7% grounder rate through 25 starts.
His second year as a Cub started off brilliantly. Stroman performed at a Cy Young level for the first couple months. Through the end of June, he turned in 102 innings of 2.47 ERA ball. He deservedly secured a second career All-Star nod. Stroman not only was trending towards an easy opt-out decision, he looked on track for a deal approaching nine figures. Along the way, the right-hander publicly angled for an extension with the Cubs. The organization didn’t reciprocate, electing to keep their options open as the trade deadline approached.
The team played well enough in July to lead the front office to add rather than deal off the MLB roster. Yet Stroman’s production tailed off as the team’s improved. He surrendered 28 runs in 26 2/3 frames, pushing his season ERA up nearly a run and a half. On August 1, the Cubs placed him on the injured list with inflammation in his right hip. That wasn’t expected to cost him more than a few weeks. However, Stroman revealed midway through his IL stint that he’d subsequently been diagnosed with a rib cartilage fracture. He was shut down from throwing entirely and didn’t return to action until September 15.
By that point, the Cubs’ playoff hopes were fading. Stroman stepped directly onto the MLB roster without a minor league rehab stint in an effort to right the ship. He pitched twice out of the bullpen before taking the ball for two abbreviated starts to close out the year. Stroman tossed eight innings of eight-run ball (five earned) with eight strikeouts and two walks over those four contests. His sinker and breaking pitch were each down around 1-2 MPH from their early-season level, although that could be explained by the abbreviated ramp-up period.
Though some thought Stroman would opt into the $21MM he had remaining with the Cubs for 2024, the righty’s decision isn’t especially surprising. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year, $34MM deal with the Rangers last winter likely serves as a floor for Stroman, especially since Stroman is ineligible for the qualifying offer Eovaldi had. With Stroman turning 33 in May, teams may stop at a two-year commitment. We wouldn’t rule out a three-year pact, perhaps in the vein of Dallas Keuchel’s $55.5MM deal.
Signed with Yankees for two years, $37MM.
19. Seth Lugo. Three years, $42MM
Tim: Diamondbacks / Anthony: Cardinals / Darragh: Reds
When he was a free agent last offseason, Lugo was coming off a five-year run as a productive setup man for the Mets. The right-hander prioritized a chance to compete for a rotation spot once he hit the market. He bet on himself with a two-year, $15MM guarantee from the Padres that allowed him to opt out after the first season.
It proved a worthwhile gamble. Lugo was a key contributor for an excellent San Diego rotation, working to a 3.57 ERA over 146 1/3 innings. He struck out a decent 23.2% of opponents against a tidy 6% walk rate. Lugo handled hitters from both sides of the plate and didn’t lose much zip off his stuff, averaging 93.2 MPH on his sinker after sitting around 94 MPH while working short relief.
It wasn’t a completely flawless season. A left calf strain cost Lugo a month in the first half. He struggled to turn a lineup over a third time, allowing a .266/.301/.531 batting line in those situations. Even if he’s better suited for facing opponents twice, he’s clearly capable of shouldering a larger workload than he was entrusted from the Mets.
Lugo didn’t establish himself as a full time big leaguer until age 27. He’s on the older side for a free agent, turning 34 in a couple weeks. While that’s likely to cap him at two or three years, he could land an annual salary near the $13MM secured by Tyler Anderson and Zach Eflin last winter.
As a player who has never earned more than this year’s $7.5MM, it’s little surprise the Padres chose not to issue a qualifying offer to Lugo. And as much as the Padres need starting pitching this winter, they’re also expected to look to reduce payroll, so a $20.325MM offer to Lugo didn’t make sense.
Signed with Royals for three years, $45MM. Includes opt-out after second year.
20. J.D. Martinez. Two years, $40MM
Tim: Mets / Anthony: Mariners / Darragh: Angels
Martinez, 36, remains an excellent source of right-handed offense at the designated hitter spot. Dating back to his 2014 breakout with the Tigers, he has never slipped below a 119 wRC+ outside of the 60-game pandemic season. This year on a one-year deal with the Dodgers, Martinez ranked third among free agents with 33 home runs and a 135 wRC+.
Originally drafted by the Astros, Martinez struggled in his initial exposure to big league pitching before overhauling his swing. Failing to understand the potential impact of those changes, Houston released Martinez in March of 2014. The Tigers snagged Martinez on a minor league deal, and he went on to rake to a 145 wRC+ over three-plus years before a trade to the Diamondbacks.
Despite a huge contract year and lack of a qualifying offer, Martinez fell well short of MLBTR’s contract expectations in the 2017-18 offseason. He still landed a five-year, $110MM deal from the Red Sox, for whom he posted a 154 wRC+ in his first two seasons. Given the chance to opt out of his remaining three years and $62.5MM at that point — back when only the AL had the DH — Martinez chose to stay put. He then did the same after a disappointing and brief 2020 season.
Martinez rebounded with a 123 wRC+ for the Red Sox from 2021-22, though his ’22 contract year was inconsistent and included a three-month stretch where he hit only six home runs. Given the universal DH, we still thought a two-year, $30MM deal was in the offing for Martinez after ’22. Instead, he took a one-year, $10MM deal with the Dodgers. This allowed Martinez to reunite with Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc, largely credited with revamping Martinez’s swing in the first place along with Craig Wallenbrock.
As strong as Martinez’s 2023 season was, he was limited to 113 games due to back and groin injuries. Unlike last year, he finished strong with eight home runs in the season’s final month plus another dinger in the NLDS. Martinez’s production was backed up by Statcast, with 98th percentile average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. His success also came with an increased strikeout rate, up significantly from last year to a 31.1% mark that ranked among the ten worst in baseball. Age and lack of defensive value will likely cap him at two years, but in a market devoid of quality bats, Martinez is one of the best options for teams in need of offense.
Though Martinez would normally have been a solid candidate for a qualifying offer, the Dodgers are widely expected to pursue Ohtani this offseason. Ohtani and Martinez are limited to designated hitter in 2024, which may explain the Dodgers’ choice not to make the offer.
Signed with Mets for one year, $12MM.
21. Jordan Hicks. Four years, $40MM
Tim: Orioles / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Tigers
Few pitchers can match Hicks’ raw arm strength. The 6’2″ righty has owned a triple-digit fastball dating back to high school. By age 21, he’d not only secured a spot on the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster but had earned enough trust to get high-leverage work. He pitched to a 3.47 ERA through a season and a half before his elbow blew out, necessitating Tommy John surgery in June 2019. The injury and the pandemic kept him off the field through 2020. Since he suffers from Type 1 diabetes, Hicks was able to opt out of the shortened season while still collecting a full year of service time.
The elbow remained problematic in 2021. He dealt with renewed inflammation and was limited to 10 appearances. The Cards nevertheless tried to stretch him out for work as a starter the following season. Hicks struggled over eight games and was moved back to the bullpen for good after losing around six weeks to a flexor injury in his forearm. His results were inconsistent down the stretch.
Hicks did his best to put those frustrating few seasons behind him in 2023. He avoided the injured list and combined for 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cardinals and Blue Jays, who acquired him at the deadline. The injuries haven’t materially impacted his arm strength. Hicks averaged 100.3 MPH on his sinker, the sixth-highest fastball speed in the majors (minimum five innings). As has been the case throughout his career, he was very difficult to elevate. He kept the ball on the ground at a huge 58.3% clip and allowed only 0.55 home runs per nine innings.
Despite the velocity, Hicks’ fastball has sinking action that’s more conducive to grounders than huge strikeout tallies. This year’s 28.4% strikeout rate was a career-best mark. That’s above-average but hardly elite for a closer. He’s never had pristine control. The ideal fit is probably a team with a strong infield defense given the grounder-heavy profile, but any club could view Hicks as a unique upside play. He’s atypically young for a free agent reliever, having just turned 27 in September.
It’s easy to see a team falling in love with Hicks’ potential, believing that he’s only a few tweaks away from becoming an elite reliever. Pitchers with this type of arm strength and ground-ball ability are quite rare. The blend youth, velocity and generally solid track record give him a shot at three or even four years despite the injury history and unspectacular whiff rate.
Signed with Giants for four years, $44MM.
22. Jack Flaherty. Three years, $40MM
Tim: Royals / Anthony: Tigers / Darragh: Pirates
Flaherty was drafted 34th overall by the Cardinals out of Harvard-Westlake High School in 2014. Heading into the 2018 season, with a brief MLB debut under his belt, Flaherty was ranked as the #53 prospect in the game by Baseball America. He put up a 3.34 ERA and 29.6 K% in 2018, finishing fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.
Flaherty took his game to the next level in 2019, with a 2.75 ERA across 33 starts. The effort nabbed him a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young voting and even a handful of MVP votes. Amazingly, Flaherty’s ERA peaked at 4.90 on July 2nd of that year. He then reeled off 16 starts with an insane 0.93 ERA, striking out a third of batters faced. Flaherty followed that up with a pair of strong Division Series starts before faltering in an NLCS outing.
At just 24 years old and at the top of his game, Flaherty had earned the Cardinals’ 2020 Opening Day nod before the pandemic hit. He still started the team’s July season opener before coming down with COVID-19. It would’ve been a strong albeit brief season for Flaherty, had the Brewers not clobbered him for nine earned runs in three innings in September to torch his ERA.
Flaherty won his arbitration case against the Cardinals the following winter, and again got the team’s Opening Day start. However, he was limited to a mere 78 1/3 innings in 2021, going 74 days between starts at one point due to a severe oblique strain. He returned for three starts in August before returning to the IL with a shoulder strain. With insufficient time to get built back up, Flaherty closed out his disappointing ’21 season with three relief appearances.
Flaherty’s injury woes worsened in 2022. He received a PRP injection in March of that year to treat shoulder inflammation, delaying his debut until mid-June. After three brief outings, he was back on the IL with a shoulder strain. He returned for a somewhat successful September, tallying only 36 innings on the lost season.
Flaherty logged only 160 2/3 innings in the Majors from 2020-22, plus another 36 frames spent on minor league rehab assignments. Expectations were low entering 2023, but the right-hander was able to avoid the IL and put up 20 middling starts for the Cardinals before being shipped to Baltimore at the trade deadline. He pitched his way out of the Orioles’ rotation after seven starts, finishing up the regular season with a pair of relief outings. Flaherty was used for a couple of low-leverage relief innings in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rangers.
Oddly enough, despite a 6.75 ERA in 34 2/3 innings with the Orioles, Flaherty’s peripherals in Baltimore were better than in St. Louis. Overall, his strikeout and walk rates were both subpar, and there’s simply not much to recommend him over the last four seasons.
However, Flaherty recently turned 28, and his youth plus his early career brilliance could lead a team to lock him up on three-year term. We’ve seen this scenario with Phil Hughes and the Twins after he posted a 5.19 ERA in 2013, as well as Tyler Chatwood and the Cubs coming off a 4.69 ERA campaign. This approach could capture some upside for the team while still allowing Flaherty a shot at a big contract heading into his age-31 season. Certainly opt-outs could be in play on a two or three-year deal, or Flaherty could sign a straight one-year contract to return to the market quickly. He makes more sense for a team that is not necessarily a top-tier contender in 2024.
Signed with Tigers for one year, $14MM.
23. Mitch Garver. Three years, $39MM
Tim: Rangers / Anthony: Rangers / Darragh: Red Sox
The Twins selected Garver in the ninth round of the 2013 draft. Despite strong minor league production, he never got much prospect attention. The right-handed hitter didn’t debut until after his 26th birthday and wasn’t quite established at the major league level until age 28. He broke out that season with 31 home runs in only 93 games, running a massive .273/.365/.630 slash through 359 plate appearances.
Garver lost most of the following campaign to an intercostal strain. He returned to hit .256/.358/.517 with 13 more homers in 68 games in 2021, although a groin injury and lower back soreness kept him out for stretches. Before the 2022 season, Minnesota traded Garver to the Rangers for infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, clearing room behind the plate for Ryan Jeffers.
The New Mexico product’s first season in Texas didn’t go well. He sustained a flexor strain in his forearm that prevented him from throwing. The Rangers used him at designated hitter for a stretch before shutting him down entirely. He underwent surgery in July.
Garver’s injury woes continued early in 2023. A left knee sprain sidelined him from mid-April into early June. He returned as the #2 catcher/DH behind All-Star Jonah Heim and went on a blistering hot streak. Garver mashed at a .271/.369/.495 clip with 17 homers over 322 plate appearances from June onward. He was a key part of the Rangers’ lineup in the postseason, typically batting fifth. Hit hit three home runs in his 60 plate appearances, including one in Game 2 of the World Series.
Garver seems like a good fit for a team that would use him sparingly at catcher, or perhaps not at all. Such a strategy could be optimal for his health, as Garver has never topped 102 games in a season and hasn’t reached 90 since 2019. His injury history limits his earning power, but we still think his offensive success in a thin market should result in a three-year deal similar to the $43MM deal Mitch Haniger signed in San Francisco after his own stretch of injury-shortened seasons. The Rangers elected not to issue a $20.325MM qualifying offer to Garver, who has never earned more than $3.9MM in a season thus far.
Signed with Mariners for two years, $24MM.
24. Michael Wacha. Three years, $36MM
Tim: Reds / Anthony: Braves / Darragh: Reds
Since a seven-year run with the Cardinals to begin his career, Wacha has bounced around the league. He spent successive seasons with the Mets and Rays before joining the Red Sox in 2022. Wacha had his best season in years for Boston, pitching to a 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings. That came in spite of a middling 20.2% strikeout rate that led the Sox to opt against issuing him a qualifying offer.
The lack of swing-and-miss contributed to a lengthy stay on the open market. Wacha was one of the last notable players to sign, waiting until mid-February to ink a deal with the Padres. It was a four-year, $26MM guarantee that paid the veteran $7.5MM for the 2023 season. The contract included a creative series of options seemingly designed to lower the Padres’ CBT hit.
His 2023 campaign was remarkably similar to the previous season. Wacha allowed 3.22 earned runs per nine innings pitched through 24 starts. He struck out an average 22.4% of batters faced behind a fine but unexceptional 10.7% swinging strike rate. For the second straight season, his bottom-line results were better than his strikeout/walk profile would suggest. He owns a 3.27 ERA/4.00 FIP in 47 starts over the past two years.
Wacha missed around six weeks with inflammation in his throwing shoulder before returning in the middle of August. His run prevention dipped slightly down the stretch. Wacha owned a 2.84 ERA before the injury and allowed 3.88 earned runs per nine upon his return. He missed more bats and was throwing harder after the shoulder issue though, so it doesn’t seem as though he was pitching through any ill effects.
The Padres, who are expected to trim payroll, turned down their option to pay Wacha $32MM over the next two seasons. At that point, turning down a $6.5MM player option for 2024 was an easy call for Wacha, so he’s a free agent once again. It comes as little surprise the Padres chose not to issue a qualifying offer to Wacha.
The 32-year-old Wacha is likely seeing a more traditional multiyear deal this time around in free agency. Given a 3.27 ERA over the last two seasons, we think he’ll find it.
Signed with Royals for two years, $32MM. Includes second-year player option.
25. Kenta Maeda. Two years, $36MM
Tim: Mets / Anthony: Twins / Darragh: Orioles
Maeda, 36 in April, dominated for the Hiroshima Carp in Japan for eight years, after which he was posted. Back under the old posting system, the maximum release fee was $20MM. Several teams were willing to pay it, but Maeda’s market was muted due to elbow irregularities found in the MRIs his agency sent to interested teams.
The Dodgers landed Maeda in January of 2016 with an unusual eight-year, $25MM deal that included significant incentives for the number of starts made. Maeda finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting that year. He fell short of his rookie-year 3.48 ERA and 32 starts in subsequent seasons, but remained a solid Dodgers contributor from 2017-19. Maeda made 71 starts during those three years, as well as 34 relief appearances.
In February of 2020, reports initially indicated that Maeda landed in Minnesota as part of a three-team deal, which more significantly sent Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. The Twins were booted from the deal due to Boston’s concerns with Brusdar Graterol’s medical history. The Dodgers didn’t share those concerns about Graterol, who was ultimately part of a separate deal sending Maeda to the Twins. Having told the Dodgers he preferred to work as a full-time starter, Maeda was surely happy in his new home. He demonstrated that by dominating in 11 starts in the shortened 2020 season, finishing second in the AL Cy Young voting.
Maeda went down for Tommy John surgery in September of 2021, choosing an internal brace procedure that would lead to a shorter recovery time. He would not make it back for the final month of 2022, however, leading to an eventual 19-month recovery period. After returning to the mound for four starts in April, the last of which was disastrous, Maeda spent nearly two months on the IL for a triceps strain. Upon returning, Maeda posted a 3.36 ERA, 29.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, and 1.43 HR/9 in 88 1/3 innings. He was used in a multi-inning relief role for a pair of ALDS games.
Given his age and injury history, Maeda isn’t likely to find a contract of more than two years. But, as he showed with his brilliant finish in 2023 and during his terrific 2020 campaign, he has the ability to turn a lineup over multiple times and thrive in a rotation role. A contending club looking for a mid-rotation arm on a short-term deal could spring for a two-year deal for Maeda, betting that his standout K-BB profile will bring continued success.
A qualifying offer made some measure of sense here, but the Twins chose not to offer one to Maeda. Even with the potential losses of Maeda and Gray, Minnesota has solid rotation depth.
Signed with Tigers for two years, $24MM.
26. Rhys Hoskins. Two years, $36MM
Tim: Twins / Anthony: Angels / Darragh: Phillies
Hoskins entered 2023 as one of the top hitters in this winter’s class. That could still be the case, but his market took a substantial hit in Spring Training. While retreating to the outfield grass to field a ground ball, he tore the ACL in his left knee. Hoskins underwent surgery and missed the entire season. The Phils indicated he could have made it back as a DH/pinch hitter had the team gotten to the Fall Classic, as he’d been able to take batting practice and run the bases.
Before the lost year, Hoskins had been one of the most consistent offensive performers in the Majors. He has been above-average at the plate in every year of his career, never posting an on-base percentage below .332 or slugging less than .454. Outside of an 18-homer barrage in 50 games as a rookie, he has never been an elite hitter. Hoskins is consistently very good: a 25-30 home run hitter who hits between .240 and .250 with plus walk rates. His career slash line sits at .242/.353/.492 in a little under 700 games.
Teams pursuing Hoskins are doing so for the bat. He’s a below-average baserunner and defender at first base. The Phils tried him in left field in 2018 with disastrous results. He’s not at the point where he’ll have to move to designated hitter, but there’s not a ton of value in the profile outside the batter’s box.
Perhaps due to uncertainty around a return to full-time outfield work for Bryce Harper, the Phillies chose not to issue a qualifying offer to Hoskins. That will be beneficial to Hoskins’ market.
In a market without many offensive options, Hoskins looks like one of the stronger bets. There’s added risk thanks to the knee injury but no indication that he won’t be back to his typical level to start 2024. The $19-20MM average annual value secured by Jose Abreu and Anthony Rizzo last offseason could be attainable. The bigger question is whether Hoskins, 31 in March and coming off a lost season, will look to max out his contract his first time through free agency. He may be better served to take the latest version of a pillow contract: two years with an opt-out.
Signed with Brewers for two years, $34MM.
27. Robert Stephenson. Four years, $36MM
Tim: Cardinals / Anthony: Mets / Darragh: Orioles
Stephenson’s projected contract might be the most surprising for a lot of fans. You’d be forgiven for not being familiar with Stephenson at all. Despite a strong prospect reputation during his time in the Reds’ system, the right-hander had a mostly nondescript MLB career. He owned a 4.91 ERA in 326 innings between the Reds, Rockies and Pirates through this past May.
Things changed when Stephenson was dealt from Pittsburgh to the Rays for infield prospect Alika Williams on June 2. Upon landing in Tampa Bay, he began throwing an upper-80s cutter that took the place of his mid-80s slider as his go-to breaking pitch. By September, Stephenson had completely ditched the slider and was leaning on the cutter almost three-quarters of the time. It’s not hard to see why. Hitters made contact on the pitch just 41.1% of the time they offered at it. Stephenson struck out nearly 43% of batters faced as a Ray, holding opponents to a putrid .138/.187/.300 batting line in 140 trips to the plate.
A former first-round pick, Stephenson has always had intriguing stuff. Pairing the cutter with a fastball that sits in the 96-97 MPH range made him essentially untouchable for four months. Stephenson picked up swinging strikes on 28.7% of his offerings in Tampa Bay. Not only was that tops in the majors, it’s nearly three times the MLB average and almost eight percentage points higher than second-place Felix Bautista. No one should expect him to sustain that kind of dominance, but there’s an argument that Stephenson is now one of the top handful of relievers in the sport.
How should teams weigh that against the track record? Stephenson’s command has been inconsistent throughout his career. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who has battled home run issues in the past — not only in hitter-friendly venues in Cincinnati and Colorado but during his stint in a pitcher-friendly setting in Pittsburgh. Outside of Josh Hader, Stephenson probably has the highest upside in the relief class, albeit with much higher risk. Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero secured three-year pacts largely behind one dominant year as a setup option. Drew Pomeranz landed four years and $34MM after striking out 45% of opponents in a post-trade platform showing in 2019. Stephenson could find similar demand as the “buzz” reliever in this year’s class.
Signed with Angels for three years, $33MM.
28. Yariel Rodriguez. Four years, $32MM
Tim: White Sox / Anthony: White Sox / Darragh: Padres
Rodriguez, 27 in March, is an unfamiliar name to many fans. A 6’1″ right-hander, he’s a native of Cuba. Rodriguez reached Cuba’s highest level as an 18-year-old in 2015 and pitched there for six seasons. He worked to a 3.30 ERA in 91 appearances for Camaguey before moving to Japan.
In January 2020, Rodriguez signed with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons. He split his first two seasons between NPB and the Dragons’ minor league affiliate despite generally solid results at Japan’s top level. By 2022, he secured a permanent spot in the Dragons’ bullpen. Rodriguez tossed 54 2/3 innings over 56 appearances, pitching to a 1.15 ERA. He punched out 27.5% of opponents against an average 8.3% walk rate.
Rodriguez joined the Cuban national team for last spring’s World Baseball Classic. He started twice, allowing two runs in 7 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and six walks. Rodriguez decided not to return to the Dragons, reportedly remaining in the Dominican Republic after the conclusion of the WBC. Chunichi placed him on the restricted list. He didn’t pitch professionally in 2023 outside of the World Baseball Classic.
Last month, Francys Romero reported that Rodriguez had been granted his release from his contract with the Dragons. He’s since reportedly been declared a free agent by MLB, and MLBTR has confirmed that no posting fee is owed to the Dragons. Rodriguez is firmly on the radar for MLB teams. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported a few weeks ago that the Rays were among more than a dozen clubs to attend one of Rodriguez’s recent workouts in the D.R.
Evaluators who have seen Rodriguez suggest he could stick as a starting pitcher, with one indicating he could command between $30MM and $50MM as a free agent. While MLBTR was able to talk to one evaluator who backed that assessment up, information has otherwise been scant on Rodriguez so far this offseason. We feel that he belongs on this list, but our confidence level in this contract projection is not high.
Signed with Blue Jays for four years, $32MM.
29. Reynaldo Lopez. Three years, $30MM
Tim: Mets / Anthony: Reds / Darragh: Twins
A former top prospect, Lopez struggled early in his career as a starter. Beginning in 2021, the White Sox transitioned him into a bullpen role. He has been an effective full-time reliever over the last two seasons, combining for a 3.02 ERA through 131 1/3 innings.
Lopez’s strikeout and walk profile has bounced around. He fanned a solid but unexceptional 24.8% of opponents while keeping his walks to a tidy 4.3% clip in 2022. This past season, he upped the strikeouts to a strong 29.9% mark but saw his walk rate spike to 12.2%. In both years, he got swinging strikes on around 14% of his offerings.
Few pitchers throw as hard as Lopez does. He averaged 98.2 MPH on his four-seam fastball and found success with a high-80s slider. The right-hander was effective over a trio of teams. He went alongside Giolito from the White Sox to the Angels in the deadline trade, then joined his longtime teammate as a waiver claim of the Guardians after the Halos cut payroll. He finished the season with 11 scoreless frames of 12-strikeout ball over 10 appearances in Cleveland.
Lopez has the makings of a quality setup arm. He’ll be 30 in January and could find three-year offers.
Signed with Braves for three years, $30MM.
30. Mike Clevinger. Two years, $26MM
Tim: Angels / Anthony: Angels / Darragh: Red Sox
A former fourth-round pick, Clevinger debuted with the Indians in 2016. A pitching development success story for Cleveland, he posted three straight seasons with an ERA of 3.11 or better. Clevinger found himself in a bit of hot water with the organization in 2020 after violating the league’s pandemic protocols. Whether in part because of the disciplinary action or simply because his arbitration price tag was rising, Cleveland dealt him to the Padres for a six-player package including Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill and Austin Hedges at that summer’s deadline.
Clevinger pitched well in four starts for San Diego before suffering an elbow injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery that November and lost the entire ’21 season to rehab. Since returning from the procedure, Clevinger has been solid but not as electric as he’d been in Cleveland.
The right-hander worked to a 4.33 ERA with a personal-low 18.8% strikeout rate through 23 outings during his final season in San Diego. He hit the open market and signed a one-year, $12MM pact with the White Sox. Reports emerged shortly thereafter that he’d been accused of domestic violence. After a six-week investigation, MLB found no cause for discipline. Clevinger began the year in the Sox’s rotation as expected. He’d have been a midseason trade candidate once the team fell out of contention had he not suffered a right wrist injury in May. He was out until late July, returning for a single start before the deadline.
Clevinger continued taking the ball every fifth day for an uncompetitive White Sox team. He had a stellar August before a quieter finish in the season’s last month. He wrapped the year with a 3.77 ERA over 131 2/3 innings. His 20% strikeout rate was a bit better than last year’s but well below the career 27.3% mark he’d posted through 2020. Opposing hitters whiffed at a slightly below-average 9.8% of his pitches, his lowest figure since his rookie year. His 94.3 MPH average fastball speed remains solid, but he’s not spinning the ball or missing bats at the same level as he had in Cleveland.
Even if Clevinger no longer has a top-of-the-rotation ceiling, he looks like a capable #4 starter. He has good command and has been generally effective at keeping runs off the board in the absence of huge whiff rates. Clevinger should be able to find two or three years in free agency despite turning 33 in December.
31. Kevin Kiermaier. Two years, $26MM
Tim: Blue Jays / Anthony: Blue Jays / Darragh: Yankees
Kiermaier spent a decade as arguably the game’s best defensive outfielder with the Rays. His all-out playing style and athleticism made him exceptional at tracking down any ball hit within his vicinity … and left him repeatedly battling injuries after dives and wall crashes. While the glove has always been Kiermaier’s calling card, he’s a serviceable offensive player, typically posting league average numbers at the plate.
The three-time Gold Glove winner was bought out by Tampa Bay last offseason, an obvious move after he underwent season-ending surgery to repair a labrum tear in his left hip. Kiermaier stayed in the AL East on a one-year, $9MM pact with the Blue Jays. It quietly proved one of the more adept free agent pickups of the offseason.
Aside from a minimal IL stay due to an elbow laceration, Kiermaier stayed healthy and got into 121 games. He posted a decent .265/.322/.419 line through 408 trips to the plate while continuing to run down almost everything hit his way. Kiermaier checked in between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast in just under 1000 innings. Only Colorado’s Brenton Doyle received better grades at the position.
Going into his age-34 campaign, Kiermaier remains one of the game’s best outfield defenders. He’s arguably the top free agent center fielder for teams that aren’t serious contenders to meet Bellinger’s asking price. There’s not much precedent for players in their mid-30s whose profile is built around defense. Kiermaier is clearly better positioned than he was last offseason, though, making a multi-year deal likely. It’s not out of the question he gets to three years, but that could be a hard sell for teams given the age and injury history. While a qualifying offer could have been defensible, Kiermaier falls short of that salary tier and did not get one from the Blue Jays.
Signed with Blue Jays for one year, $10.5MM.
32. Nick Martinez. Two years, $25MM
Tim: Cardinals / Anthony: Padres / Darragh: Blue Jays
After beginning his career as a depth starter with the Rangers, Martinez made the jump to Japan. He spent three seasons in NPB before returning stateside with the Padres. The right-hander opted out of a four-year deal following a 2022 campaign in which he turned in a 3.47 ERA over 106 1/3 innings. He quickly re-signed with the Padres on another convoluted contract that guaranteed him $26MM over three seasons.
Martinez’s second season in San Diego looked much like the first. He again entered the year in competition for a rotation spot but primarily settled into a long relief role. Martinez started nine of 63 appearances but logged 110 1/3 frames, typically working between one and two innings out of the bullpen. His 3.43 ERA was a near match for the prior year’s. He struck out an average 23% of batters faced against a serviceable 8.7% walk rate while keeping the ball on the ground at a strong 53.8% clip.
The Padres, possibly in payroll-cutting mode this offseason, declined a two-year $32MM option on Martinez. Martinez then turned down two years and $16MM on his end.
While not a standout profile, Martinez has been an effective and versatile part of the Friars’ pitching staff. His strikeout and walk profile was better out of the bullpen than the rotation, but he posted a 2.32 ERA over 42 2/3 innings as a starter. He has shown the ability to handle left-handed hitters and turn over a lineup multiple times, so he could get an extended rotation look in free agency. He recently turned 33, the same age at which swing types Ross Stripling and Seth Lugo secured two-year contracts last winter.
Signed with Reds for two years, $26MM.
33. Aroldis Chapman. Two years, $24MM
Tim: Astros / Anthony: White Sox / Darragh: Angels
Chapman was a big story when he defected from Cuba in the summer of 2009. The flamethrowing lefty surprisingly landed with the Reds on a six-year deal worth $30.25MM. A plan to use him as a starter was quickly abandoned, and Chapman was regularly exceeding triple digits out of the Reds’ pen by the end of 2010.
Despite flirtations with starting at various points in his early career, Chapman hasn’t started a game in his 14-year career. He broke out as the Reds’ closer in 2012, making the first of four consecutive All-Star appearances. With Chapman’s salary rising through arbitration, the Reds struck a deal to send him to the Dodgers at the 2015 Winter Meetings. That deal was subsequently nixed once it was revealed Chapman had been involved in a domestic dispute. The Yankees acquired Chapman instead, and he went on to serve a 30-game suspension. Later in the 2016 season, the Yankees traded Chapman to the Cubs in a deal centered around Gleyber Torres. Chapman went on to become a key piece in the Cubs’ championship.
Less than five months later, the Yankees signed Chapman to a then-record five-year, $86MM free agent deal. Facing an opt-out decision after the third year of that deal, the Yankees convinced Chapman to stay by adding another year to his contract. That added year, 2022, turned out to be a rough final one in pinstripes for Chapman. His strikeout rate plummeted, his walk rate spiked, and he spent time on the IL for Achilles tendinitis as well as a leg infection brought about by a tattoo. After Chapman skipped a mandatory October workout, the Yankees fined him and left him off their ALDS roster.
His stock down, Chapman signed a one-year, $3.75MM deal with the Royals last January. Chapman had good results despite a scary walk rate, and the Royals deftly traded him to the Rangers for Cole Ragans and Roni Cabrera on June 30th. Though prone to the longball, Chapman generally pitched well for the Rangers and was one of Bruce Bochy’s trusted relievers in the postseason. Chapman, who has logged 49 1/3 playoff innings in his career, allowed two runs in eight frames for Texas this postseason.
Chapman, 36 in February, ranked seventh among all relievers this year with an average fastball velocity of 99.6 miles per hour. Among relievers with at least 30 innings, his strikeout rate of 41.4% ranked second. His 14.5% walk rate was one of the game’s worst, but when he’s on, Chapman is still nasty. Some teams won’t have an appetite for Chapman’s reputation, but he may be able to find a two-year deal this winter. It’s also possible he’s at the one-year mercenary stage of his career.
Signed with Pirates for one year, $10.5MM.
34. Michael Lorenzen. Two years, $22MM
Tim: Marlins / Anthony: Rockies / Darragh: Diamondbacks
Lorenzen began his MLB career with six-plus seasons in Cincinnati. The Reds deployed him mostly out of the bullpen, dabbling with him as an outfielder at times. Lorenzen is no longer a two-way option but prioritized finding a rotation spot when he first hit free agency in advance of the 2022 season. He signed with the Angels and posted a 4.24 ERA through 18 starts around a shoulder strain that sidelined him for a couple months. He signed for one year and $8.5MM with the Tigers last winter.
In aggregate, Lorenzen’s 2023 production — at least on a rate basis — wasn’t much better than his ’22 campaign. He concluded the year with a 4.18 ERA and saw his strikeout rate dip from 20.7% to 17.8%. While the results landed not far off league average at the end, Lorenzen reached bigger highs and starker lows than he did in Anaheim.
After a brief IL stay due to a groin strain delayed his season debut, Lorenzen was a mid-rotation starter in Detroit. He worked to a 3.58 ERA over 18 starts, rattling off three straight scoreless appearances in July and making his first All-Star team. The Tigers flipped him to Philadelphia for infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee on deadline day.
Lorenzen’s first two starts with the Phillies were excellent. He tossed eight innings of two-run ball against the Marlins in his team debut. In his first home outing at Citizens Bank Park six days later, Lorenzen no-hit the Nationals. The nine-year veteran called it the “coolest moment” of his career.
Things dropped off sharply after that appearance. Lorenzen surrendered four-plus runs in each of his next five starts. The Phillies moved him to the bullpen on September 19. He wasn’t a huge factor in the playoff run, appearing in only two postseason contests as a low-leverage reliever. Lorenzen’s regular season work in Philadelphia resulted in a 5.51 ERA with a well below-average 13.6% strikeout percentage across 47 1/3 frames.
He hits free agency heading into his age-32 campaign. His 9.4% swinging strike rate was down nearly two percentage points from last season’s mark, while his ground-ball rate dropped nine points. To his credit, Lorenzen cut his walks and topped 150 innings for the first time in his career. Perhaps his dip in production at the end of the year was tied to that personal-high workload. Lorenzen’s overall numbers look like those of a #4/5 starter, though.
Signed with Rangers for one year, $4.5MM.
35. Sean Manaea. Two years, $22MM
Tim: Pirates / Anthony: Rays / Darragh: Dodgers
Manaea returns to free agency for a second consecutive offseason. In 2022, the southpaw looked on his way to a strong multi-year deal before a dismal second half tanked his value. He took a two-year, $25MM contract with the Giants that allowed him to opt out after the first season. The goal was to hold a rotation spot all year and reestablish himself as an above-average starting pitcher.
That’s not how things played out. Manaea struggled out of the gate, allowing a 7.96 ERA over his first eight appearances. By the middle of May, the Giants had kicked him to the bullpen. He spent most of the year working multiple innings of relief with quietly strong results. From May 11 through September 6, Manaea tossed 67 2/3 innings across 25 relief appearances. He posted a 3.86 ERA, struck out over 28% of batters faced and held opponents to a .216/.293/.340 line.
The Giants gave him four starts from that point forward. He worked to a 2.25 ERA with 18 strikeouts and two walks in 24 innings to finish out the year. It was again a tale of two halves, but Manaea closed this season on a much stronger note than he had last fall. He leaves $12.5MM on the table by opting out.
Manaea found an extra couple ticks of velocity in San Francisco. He averaged 93.6 MPH on his fastball after sitting at 91.3 MPH the previous season. That’s not entirely a reflection of working out of relief. He was sitting in the 94-95 range as a starter early in the year and closed the season with a 93.2 MPH average over six innings as a starter against the Padres.
Teams could target Manaea as either a starter or multi-inning reliever. He’ll turn 32 in February.
Signed with Mets for two years, $28MM. Includes opt-out.
36. Harrison Bader. Two years, $20MM
Tim: Giants / Anthony: Twins / Darragh: Twins
Bader entered the season with a chance to play his way towards the top of a thin free agent class for hitters. The Florida product showed plus speed and excellent center field defense during his time with the Cardinals. While it was undercut by injuries and offensive inconsistency, he showed the potential to impact the game on both sides of the ball. The Yankees acquired a then-injured Bader for Jordan Montgomery at the 2022 trade deadline. He barely played in the regular season but connected on five homers in nine playoff games.
He couldn’t maintain that offensive momentum into 2023. Bader combined for a .232/.274/.348 slash between the Yankees and Reds, who nabbed him off waivers in a late-season transaction. He had a trio of injured list stints, missing time with a left oblique strain, right hamstring strain, and strained right groin. None of those were especially serious individually, but they added to a lengthy history of nagging health concerns. Bader has gone on the IL seven times in his major league career, mostly with relatively minor soft tissue problems. Plantar fasciitis in his right foot cost him two and a half months in 2022.
Bader has dramatic platoon splits. The right-handed hitter owns a .258/.322/.464 mark against left-handed pitching over the past three seasons. He’s hitting .248/.293/.373 versus righties over that stretch. His glove and baserunning are enough to keep him from falling into a complete platoon, but he’s a bottom-of-the-order hitter against right-handed starters.
The defense should be enough for Bader to find a multi-year deal. Glove-first outfielders like Manuel Margot and Jackie Bradley Jr. have signed two-year contracts worth $10-12MM annually. Bader won’t turn 30 until next June. He could look to secure an opt-out to potentially retest free agency, when a four-year offer could be attainable if he turns things around.
Signed with Mets for one year, $10.5MM.
37. Tyler Mahle. Two years, $20MM
Tim: Nationals / Anthony: Blue Jays / Darragh: Tigers
Mahle looked like an quality mid-rotation starter at times with the Reds. The 6’3″ righty struggled over his first couple campaigns but took a massive step forward in both whiffs and run prevention during the shortened 2020 season. He carried that into a full schedule in 2021, turning in a 3.75 ERA with an above-average 27.7% strikeout percentage over 33 starts and 180 innings.
The results backed up early in 2022, as Mahle allowed 4.40 earned runs per nine across 19 outings. The Twins bet on his track record, solid strikeout/walk profile and results away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park. At the deadline, Minnesota sent Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand as part of a package to acquire Mahle from a then-rebuilding Reds team.
That trade didn’t work for Minnesota. Mahle made four starts before shoulder inflammation sent him to the injured list. He returned this year, turned in a 3.16 ERA over five starts, then injured his UCL. Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery in May. The typical 14-16 month rehab timeline would give him a chance to return to a big league mound around the All-Star Break in 2024.
It was an ill-timed injury for the impending free agent, who had a shot at a deal of four or more years had he stayed healthy. Now, he’s likely to look for a two-year pact. That’d give him financial security while he works back from surgery. The team could get below-market production if he returns healthy down the stretch and into 2025. That’s fairly common for talented pitchers midway through TJS rehab. The two-year, $20MM extension that German Marquez signed with the Rockies could serve as a template.
Signed with Rangers for two years, $22MM.
38. Gio Urshela. Two years, $20MM
Tim: Blue Jays / Anthony: Blue Jays / Darragh: Tigers
It took a few seasons for Urshela to establish himself at the major league level. He played a limited role in parts of three seasons with the Indians and Blue Jays. It wasn’t until an injury to Miguel Andujar opened the Yankees’ third base job in 2019 that Urshela broke out. He connected on 21 home runs with a .314/.355/.534 line to supplant Andujar as New York’s top option at the hot corner.
While that’ll probably go down as his best full season, Urshela has been an effective regular for the past five years. He combined to hit .275/.320/.438 from 2020-21. The Yankees dealt him to the Twins as part of the Josh Donaldson/Isiah Kiner-Falefa swap the next winter. Urshela posted a .285/.338/.429 slash over his lone season in Minnesota. With younger infielders waiting in the wings, the Twins traded him to the Angels last offseason.
Urshela’s season in Orange County was an odd one. He hit .299 over 62 games but had the worst power numbers since he became a regular. He homered just twice in 228 plate appearances. His .374 slugging percentage was his first sub-.400 mark in five years. Urshela’s hopes of snapping that power funk were dashed in mid-June. While trying to beat out an infield hit, he landed awkwardly on the first base bag and sustained a left pelvis fracture, ending his season.
While it’s not the platform he envisioned, there could still be enough interest for Urshela to secure a multi-year contract. He’s a high-contact hitter who runs strong averages to compensate for low walk totals. He’s typically a threat for double digit homers and 20-plus doubles. His defensive reputation should also work in his favor. Urshela is generally regarded as a strong defender despite mixed reviews from public metrics (plus grades from DRS, well below-average marks from Statcast). He can moonlight at shortstop and could perhaps draw consideration as a second baseman in a weak middle infield market.
Utility players Eduardo Escobar and Brandon Drury secured two-year pacts approaching $20MM. Urshela could fall into that range thanks to the down platform year. He turned 32 last month.
Signed with Tigers for one year, $1.5MM.
39. Amed Rosario. Two years, $18MM
Tim: Tigers / Anthony: Marlins / Darragh: Marlins
An elite prospect during his time coming through the Mets organization, Rosario debuted in the majors as a 21-year-old. He never became the franchise shortstop some evaluators thought he would. Rosario’s offense was up-and-down, largely on account of a very aggressive approach. He was similarly inconsistent at shortstop, routinely receiving well below-average defensive grades.
Over three and a half seasons in Queens, Rosario hit .268/.302/.403. During the 2020-21 offseason, New York included him alongside Andres Gimenez as part of a package to bring in Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Indians. Rosario spent two-plus years as Cleveland’s shortstop, playing almost every day with solid but unspectacular results.
Between 2021-22, the right-handed hitting infielder combined for a .282/.316/.406 batting line. He put the ball in play with regularity and ran strong batting averages but did so with modest power and a well below-average 4.5% walk rate. The overall offensive productivity was around league average.
Rosario’s final season in Cleveland didn’t go as planned. His line fell to a .265/.306/.369 slash over 412 trips to the plate. His metrics at shortstop were dreadful, with DRS pegging him a staggering 16 runs below average over 774 2/3 frames. Statcast estimated him at -11 runs. While he has never rated as a good defender, this year’s grades were the worst of his career. Cleveland decided to turn shortstop over to Gabriel Arias, sending Rosario to the Dodgers in a challenge trade for Noah Syndergaard. Rosario played a limited role in L.A., seeing more action at second base than shortstop and starting 28 of their last 61 games. The Dodgers left him off their playoff roster.
There’s no doubt it’s an inopportune time for one of the worst years of his career. Rosario entered the season as the top shortstop in a weak class. Some clubs may no longer even consider him a shortstop, preferring him at second base. He finished the year with a .263/.305/.378 mark, including a .252/.293/.343 showing against right-handed pitching.
At the same time, he’s a one-time top minor league talent who’s a few weeks from his 28th birthday. The middle infield class remains barren. Teams like the Marlins, Giants, White Sox, Red Sox, Tigers, A’s and Pirates could look for help at either second base or shortstop, with Rosario a potential rebound target.
Signed with Rays for one year, $1.5MM.
40. Whit Merrifield. Two years, $18MM
Tim: White Sox / Anthony: White Sox / Darragh: White Sox
A two-time American League hits leader, Merrifield has an old-school playing style. He’s a high-contact hitter who consistently hits for solid averages and runs the bases well. Merrifield was selected to the All-Star Game for the third time after hitting .286/.342/.392 in the first half. He struggled coming out of the break, posting a .256/.286/.370 finish to conclude with a .272/.318/.382 line through 592 trips to the plate. He stole 26 bases in 36 attempts.
While Merrifield consistently gets into the double digits in home runs, the profile is built around his bat-to-ball skills. Over the past three seasons, he owns a .268/.311/.385 mark in just shy of 1900 trips to the plate. Merrifield splits his defensive work between second base and the outfield, generally receiving better grades for his time on the dirt.
The eight-year veteran is one of the better middle infielders available in a very thin class. He’ll likely be limited to two years since he’s turning 35 in January. His camp could take aim at the $18MM range secured by Jean Segura and Brandon Drury last winter. The Mariners, White Sox, Brewers, Red Sox, Pirates, Tigers and Nationals are among a host of teams that could look for help at the keystone.
Signed with Phillies for one year, $8MM.
41. Justin Turner. One year, $16MM
Tim: Diamondbacks / Anthony: Diamondbacks / Darragh: Marlins
It has been a decade since Turner’s breakout after landing with the Dodgers. The veteran corner infielder has been an above-average hitter in every season dating back to 2014. Turner doesn’t have quite the same power he did during his 2014-19 peak, but he’s still a well-rounded offensive player. He has 20-homer pop, good plate discipline and plus contact skills.
That carried over from Los Angeles to Boston. The Dodgers bought Turner out for $2MM in lieu of a $16MM option last offseason. He more than made up the difference, signing with the Red Sox on a two-year guarantee that included an $8.3MM salary in the first season along with a $6.7MM buyout on a 2024 player option. He earned an additional $1MM in incentives.
Turner played well enough to make retesting free agency an easy call. He connected on 23 homers with a .276/.345/.455 line across 626 plate appearances. His strikeout and walk profile remained strong, while his batted ball metrics were consistent with his late-career work in Southern California. The righty-swinging Turner was markedly better against left-handed pitching this season, but he has traditionally had neutral or reverse platoon numbers. He’s still capable of playing an everyday role in the middle of a lineup.
Nearing his 39th birthday, Turner has lost a couple steps defensively. His third base ratings dipped from above-average to a little below towards the end of his Dodger tenure. With Rafael Devers manning the hot corner in Boston, Turner played mostly designated hitter or first base. While a signing team probably wouldn’t want to pencil him in for 1000 innings of third base work anymore, he can bounce between the corner infield spots and upgrade a lineup at DH.
Turner was ineligible for the qualifying offer as a player who has previously received one. His age probably keeps this to one year. He should land a similar commitment to last offseason’s as one of the best bets in the class for above-average offense in 2024. The D-Backs, Padres, Cubs, Tigers, Giants, Yankees, Phillies and Marlins could all fit.
Signed with Blue Jays for one year, $13MM.
42. Jason Heyward. Two years, $16MM
Tim: Dodgers / Anthony: Royals / Darragh: Pirates
The 2023 campaign was the final of Heyward’s eight-year free agent deal with the Cubs. That he spent the whole season with the Dodgers is a reflection of how poorly the Cubs’ $184MM investment panned out. Heyward’s only above-average offensive showing in Chicago came during the shortened 2020 season. When the Cubs released him at the start of last offseason, he concluded his tenure with a .245/.323/.377 line in seven years.
As a result, few expected Heyward would make a significant impact when he signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers. He made L.A.’s Opening Day roster in the role of veteran mentor but quickly played his way into a key rotational outfield option. Heyward had a resurgent season at the plate, connecting on 15 homers with a .269/.340/.473 batting line in 377 plate appearances. While he didn’t make dramatically harder contact, he was more effective at hitting the ball in the air en route to his highest single-season slugging mark since 2012.
That strong rate production was no doubt aided by a sheltered role. The Dodgers shielded Heyward from left-handed pitching, giving him all but 28 plate appearances with the platoon advantage. Had they played him regularly against southpaws, the slash line would look less impressive. There’s solid value in a strong side platoon capacity, particularly when paired with plus defense. The five-time Gold Glove winner continued to rate highly as a right fielder, with both DRS and Statcast pegging him five runs above average across 624 innings. Even at age 34, he’s capable of covering center field if needed.
Heyward certainly locked down a Major League contract this time around. He has a case for two years as a platoon option who’ll offer a respected presence in a locker room. The White Sox, Royals, Rockies, Nationals, Marlins and Guardians are possible suitors.
Signed with Dodgers for one year, $9MM.
43. Yuki Matsui. Two years, $16MM
Tim: Cubs / Anthony: Giants / Darragh: Cardinals
Matsui, 28, has established himself as one of the better relief pitchers in Japan. The left-hander has tallied 30+ saves on six occasions for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles, including a personal-high 39 saves this past season. He worked to a 1.57 ERA over 57 1/3 innings, his third consecutive year with a sub-2.00 mark. Matsui punched out an excellent 32.4% of opposing hitters while walking just 5.9% of batters faced.
The statistical profile has been impressive throughout his decade-long run in NPB. Matsui owns a career 2.40 ERA with a strikeout rate just below 32%. He’s younger than any notable free agent reliever in the class aside from Hicks. Unlike Yamamoto and Imanaga, Matsui has surpassed the requisite nine year service threshold to reach international free agency. An MLB team wouldn’t owe compensation or a posting fee to the Eagles.
While that makes him one of the more intriguing relievers available, Matsui isn’t without question marks. He’s listed at 5’8″ and 167 pounds, with that slight frame perhaps a source of trepidation for some teams. Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke were mixed on his profile, which one described as headlined by an above-average slider and a deceptive delivery. His youth still opens the possibility of two or three years.
Signed with Padres for five years, $28MM.
44. Frankie Montas. One year, $15MM
Tim: Orioles / Anthony: Nationals / Darragh: Cardinals
Montas is an upside play coming off a season and a half lost to a shoulder injury that eventually required surgery. The right-hander flashed mid-rotation ability from 2018-19. His ’19 campaign was cut short by an 80-game suspension after a positive test for the performance-enhancing substance Ostarine. He struggled during the abbreviated 2020 season before putting together his first full campaign of above-average results in 2021.
Through 187 innings, he turned in a 3.87 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout percentage. He was off to a similarly strong start in 2022, allowing 3.18 earned runs per nine through 19 outings on a rebuilding A’s club. Montas missed some time in early July with shoulder discomfort but avoided the injured list. Oakland dealt him to the Yankees at the deadline.
Montas’ time in the Bronx did not pan out. He was rocked for a 6.35 ERA in eight starts down the stretch. His season ended with an IL placement due to shoulder inflammation. He continued to battle soreness during the offseason and underwent arthroscopic surgery in February. The injury cost Montas almost all of his platform year. He returned for one appearance against the Royals during the penultimate game of the season. The average velocity on his sinker (93.9 MPH) and splitter (85.2 MPH) were down a tick from pre-surgery levels, although Montas was limited to three innings on a minor league rehab stint with the season winding to a close.
Signing Montas would be a high-risk upside play. While that traditionally takes the form of a one-year deal, Michael Conforto signed a two-year, $36MM guarantee with a conditional opt-out clause after missing all of 2022 following shoulder surgery. It’s possible Montas has enough appeal to secure a two-year deal with an opt-out himself, although a straight one-year pact would be more standard. He turns 31 in March. He’s young enough to have a shot at a four-plus year contract next offseason if he recaptures his pre-surgery form.
Signed with Reds for one year, $16MM.
45. Brandon Belt. One year, $15MM
Tim: Red Sox / Anthony: Pirates / Darragh: Brewers
Belt reached free agency for the first time in his career last offseason. At the time, the longtime Giants slugger was coming off a middling .213/.326/.350 showing over 78 games. His 2022 season had ended in September when he underwent surgery on his right knee. Belt considered retirement early in the winter but decided to keep going after the procedure rejuvenated him.
The Blue Jays guaranteed the veteran first baseman $9.3MM on a one-year deal. His season was very good. Belt hit .254/.369/.490 with 19 home runs through 404 trips to the plate. He walked at a massive 15.1% clip to keep the on-base percentage up despite a career-worst 34.9% strikeout rate. Belt had a pair of brief stints on the injured list — 10 days in June for hamstring inflammation and two weeks in September because of muscle spasms in his back — but didn’t have any issues with the surgically-repaired knee.
Toronto aggressively shielded Belt from left-handed pitching. He only took 39 plate appearances (9.7% of his season tally) against southpaws. The favorable role no doubt propped up Belt’s season line, but he has been an impact bat against right-handed pitching in three of the past four years. In a market light on offense, Belt is one of the better options for teams looking to add a lefty presence to the middle of a lineup. If he wants to play a 14th MLB season, he should earn a nice boost on this year’s salary.
46. Hector Neris. Two years, $15MM
Tim: Reds / Anthony: Cardinals / Darragh: Twins
Neris’ 1.71 ERA this year ranked seventh among qualified relievers. The 34-year-old righty maintained a solid 28.2 K%, though his control can come and go and was subpar this year. Neris additionally lost over a mile per hour off his fastball and saw his groundball rate take a tumble, but he was able to strand over 90% of baserunners.
Neris established himself as a key part of the Phillies’ bullpen back in 2016, and took hold of the closer role the following year. However, struggles the following year led to a demotion to Triple-A. Neris was able to regain Philly’s closer job in 2019, logging a career-best 28 saves.
In November of 2021, the Astros signed Neris to a two-year, $17MM deal. He had a solid run in Houston, and his 2024 club option converted to a player one when he met certain appearance thresholds. Neris turned down his one-year, $8.5MM option to explore the open market. Durability is one of Neris’ best assets, as he’s never been on the IL for an arm injury and ranks third among MLB relievers with 297 1/3 regular season innings from 2019-23.
Signed with Cubs for one year, $9MM.
47. Jakob Junis. Two years, $15MM
Tim: Padres / Anthony: Diamondbacks / Darragh: Padres
Junis, 31, turned in back-of-the-rotation numbers over parts of five seasons for the Royals. Kansas City cut him loose after the 2021 campaign. The righty inked a $1.75MM deal with the Giants, who controlled him for a second season via arbitration.
The former 29th-round pick operated in a swing role during his first year with the Giants. He started 17 of 23 outings and worked to a 4.42 ERA over 112 innings. San Francisco kicked him to relief this past season. Junis had a quietly solid year as a multi-inning reliever, allowing a career-low 3.87 ERA in 40 appearances covering 86 frames. He fanned 26.2% of opponents against a modest 5.7% walk percentage.
Junis averaged 93.7 MPH on his sinker, two ticks higher than his previous career high. He leans more often on a mid-80s slider that presents a particularly tough look for right-handed hitters. Many clubs will prefer him as a reliever thanks to the heavy reliance on the breaking ball, but it’s not out of the question he finds a team willing to let him battle for a spot at the back of a rotation. He could aim for a similar deal to those secured by Lugo and Matt Strahm.
Signed with Brewers for one year, $7MM.
48. Luis Severino. One year, $14MM
Tim: Tigers / Anthony: Brewers / Darragh: White Sox
Among the class, few players have seen their stock drop to the same extent as Severino. He made consecutive All-Star games and secured top-10 Cy Young placements in 2017-18. The righty topped 190 innings in each season and combined for a 3.18 ERA with a 28.8% strikeout rate. Going into 2019, he and the Yankees agreed to a $40MM extension that covered his four arbitration years with a $15MM club option for his first would-be free agent season.
Injuries essentially robbed Severino of the first three years of that deal. Shoulder and lat problems limited him to three starts in 2019. The club announced the following February that he’d suffered a UCL injury requiring Tommy John surgery. That cost him all of 2020 and a good portion of ’21. Severino was set back again by shoulder discomfort late that season, keeping him to four relief outings.
The Dominican-born hurler entered 2022 healthy. He was effective early on, working to a 3.45 ERA behind a 27.2% strikeout rate into mid-July. A lat strain then sent him back to the injured list, keeping him out into September. He made it back to throw 16 regular season innings at the end of the year and tossed 11 frames over two playoff starts. The Yankees were encouraged enough by the form he showed when healthy to exercise the option.
Unfortunately, the lat issues resurfaced this year. Another strain sent Severino to the IL for the first six weeks of the season. He returned at the end of May to reassume a rotation spot. This time, his effectiveness disappeared. Severino was hit hard throughout the summer, surrendering a 6.65 ERA across 89 1/3 innings.
His 2.32 HR/9 rate was second-worst among starting pitchers. The strikeout rate plummeted nearly nine percentage points. He generated swinging strikes on only 9.1% of his offerings after earning a whiff more than 12% of the time in each of the previous two seasons. Severino’s disastrous year finished on a sour note in September. A left oblique strain cut his season short.
Nothing in the 2023 statistical profile is encouraging. The reasons for hope are twofold: his pre-’23 track record of strong performance when healthy and still-present velocity. It’d be easier to explain Severino’s terrible year if the injuries had completely sapped his arm strength. Instead, he averaged an impressive 96.5 MPH on his heater — only a touch below its peak level. His slider wasn’t as sharp as it had been in prior seasons, but Severino’s repertoire didn’t collapse.
A change in environment or potential pitch mix alteration could make him a popular target for a one-year deal. Severino has more impressive raw stuff than Noah Syndergaard did when he found a $13MM guarantee last offseason. Matthew Boyd received $10MM as a rebound candidate coming off a season in which he was limited to 13 1/3 innings. Severino’s camp could look to beat those numbers on a pillow contract.
Signed with Mets for one year, $13MM.
49. Liam Hendriks. Two years, $12MM
Tim: Phillies / Anthony: Diamondbacks / Darragh: Red Sox
Hendriks, 35 in February, went from struggling starting pitcher to waiver bait to one of the best relievers in all of baseball. His relief career took off with the 2015 Blue Jays, and then ascended to elite levels with the 2019-20 A’s. The White Sox inked him to a $54MM free agent deal, and were rewarded with a pair of All-Star seasons.
In January of this year, Hendriks announced he’d been diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. With the whole game rooting for the Aussie closer, Hendriks announced he was cancer-free by April. He rejoined the White Sox in late May, but soon after injured his elbow and required August Tommy John surgery. The White Sox had included a $15MM club option with an oddly equal buyout for 2024 designed perhaps with Tommy John surgery in mind, as declining the option allowed them to defer payment over a decade.
Hendriks now has the chance to hook on with a team with an eye on him returning to late-inning prominence in 2025. He could be of particular interest to CBT payors, since the AAV of his contract would be low.
Signed with Red Sox for two years, $10MM.
50. Tim Anderson. One year, $12MM
Tim: Marlins / Anthony: Mariners / Darragh: Athletics
In a decision that would’ve seemed shocking a year ago, the White Sox declined Anderson’s $14MM club option after an abysmal 2023 season.
A former first-round draft pick, Anderson started his career a bit slowly, flashing an intriguing power/speed combination but posting middling on-base marks over his first three seasons. He took a significant step forward in 2019, hitting .335/.357/.508 to win the batting title. That spurred a stretch of four consecutive above-average years at the plate. Anderson combined for a .318/.347/.473 slash between 2019-22. He made two All-Star Games and won a Silver Slugger while receiving down-ballot MVP votes in 2020. Six months ago, he looked to be one of the best shortstops in the majors.
Anderson instead was one of the worst players in MLB this past season. He managed just one home run in 524 trips to the plate, hitting .245/.286/.296. His 13 stolen bases were his lowest in a 162-game schedule since his rookie year. Anderson struck out in 23.3% of his plate appearances, his highest rate since 2018. While he has always been a ground-ball hitter, this year’s 61.1% grounder rate was a personal high.
Along with the dreadful offensive showing, Anderson rated as a below-average defensive shortstop. Statcast felt he was marginally worse than par, but DRS pegged him 16 runs below average — the lowest total in the majors. Anderson has expressed a willingness to move to second base if the team desires.
The 30-year-old Anderson played at roughly a 4-WAR pace as recently as last year, and this year’s middle infield market is barren. While it’s fair to assume the White Sox found no trade interest in Anderson at his $14MM option price, he could have a market a few million dollars below that. In his eight-year big league career, Anderson has at times rubbed fellow players the wrong way, with his “put up your dukes” moment with the Guardians’ Jose Ramirez this summer serving as an example. That will be a factor in his market, but his track record should generate several suitors.
Signed with Marlins for one year, $5MM.
Honorable mentions:
- Victor Caratini – signed with Astros for two years, $12MM
- Adam Duvall – signed with Braves for one year, $3MM
- Erick Fedde – signed with White Sox for two years, $15MM
- Kyle Gibson – signed with Cardinals for one year, $12MM
- Clayton Kershaw – signed with Dodgers for two years, $10MM
- Lance Lynn – signed with Cardinals for one year, $11MM
- Craig Kimbrel – signed with Orioles for one year, $13MM
- Phil Maton – signed with Rays for one year, $6.5MM
- Wade Miley – signed with Brewers for one year, $8.5MM
- Matt Moore – signed with Angels for one year, $9MM
- Tom Murphy – signed with Giants for two years, $8.25MM
- Emilio Pagan – signed with Reds for two years, $16MM
- James Paxton – signed with Dodgers for one year, $11MM
- Joc Pederson – signed with Diamondbacks for one year, $12.5MM
- Tommy Pham
- Hunter Renfroe – signed with Royals for two years, $13MM
- David Robertson – signed with Rangers for one year, $11.5MM
- Hyun Jin Ryu – signed with KBO’s Hanwha Eagles
- Gary Sanchez – signed with Brewers for one year, $7MM
- Ryne Stanek – signed with Mariners for one year, $4MM
- Michael A. Taylor – signed with Pirates for one year, $4MM
- Joey Votto – signed minor league deal with Blue Jays
Notable deals for unlisted/non-tendered players:
- Brandon Woodruff – signed with Brewers for two years, $17.5MM
- Wandy Peralta – signed with Padres for four years, $16.5MM
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – signed with Blue Jays for two years, $15MM
- Ryan Brasier – signed with Dodgers for two years, $9MM
- Joe Kelly – signed with Dodgers for one year, $8MM
- Martin Perez – signed with Pirates for one year, $8MM
- Keynan Middleton – signed with Cardinals for one year, $6MM
- John Brebbia – signed with White Sox for one year, $5.5MM
- Will Smith – signed with Royals for one year, $5MM
- Joey Gallo – signed with Nationals for one year, $5MM
- Andrew McCutchen – signed with Pirates for one year, $5MM
IT’S THE MOST WONDERFUL TIME OF THE YEAAAAR!
For the players maybe, not the fans
Also, I ain’t paying no 500 million dollars for Ohtani
Smh
Long-term, it seems like he’s gotta do one or the other.
Indeed he does, he isn’t super human
No one is
Of 50 FA’s Red Sox barely mentioned. If they don’t end up making a couple of huge signings the Sox are gonna see attendance and ratings continue their decline I predict.
As is true of all middling teams.
Fact. You are not paying any Major Leaguers.
Well okay then
frontdesk, you pay it through ticket prices.
Insane – ticket price increases have nothing to do with player salaries. They’re based on supply/demand
Guess you wouldn’t want the greatest player that ever lived. Makes sense.
Lefty – For the fans as well. This annual list is a GREAT reality check for the know-it-all commenters who actually know very little.
For instance, all the commenters who figured JD would settle for the $20.325M QO and JT would get twice as much as JD.
The writers here are SPOT ON with valuing JD at $40M and JT at $16M, although I’m sticking with my $35M prediction for JD which isn’t much less.
I am usually impressed with the MLBTR writers and analysis. But, while far from the top of the list, last year, I actually did better in the contest than all of the MLBTR staff.
I am glad they don’t have a free agent manager contest. I would have done poorly on that one!
They are throwing darts at a board. And relying on the fact that the Dodgers, Yankees and Giants will sign whoever they want, oh and the Cardinals need pitching so attache the Cardinals to 2/3 of the available pitching.
Fortunately you don’t have to
Well, it really is a paraphrase from Caddyshack
Here’s what I’d propose for Ohtani:
5/235
Opt outs at years 3, 4 & 5
Escalators at years 3, 4 & 5 based on some type of performance analytic which adds an additional year @ 50m.
Max possible years would be 10 years, which would put the potential total at 10/485
I’d propose 10/$300M
$500k per start for the first 5 starts
$750k for each of the next 5 starts
$1M for each of the next 5 starts
and $1.25M for each start after that
I’m also (because I’m a Rangers fan) going with a 6 man rotation. If Ohtani pitches all 27 starts, that’s $56.25M. Also normal awards incentives.
Ohtani is like buying a used BMW. only good when new and his best years are behind him.
Right. Like this is his 2nd TJ surgery. It seems unlikely he will be able to do both at a high level long term. $500M+ deal seems like it would be a mistake. You’re potentially paying for a DH only the last few seasons (maybe even more).
Exactly let’s keep it real. The best ability is availability. Having him pitch will jeopardize that. I’d keep him strictly as a hitter with MAYBE some relief innings. The question becomes how much is he worth as a hitter? Seems like 5-6 years from now he’d be an awfully expensive DH if he regresses. Then again he could have a Justin Verlander type career too so it’s a gamble.
Me personally I’d pass on him and go after Snell, Neris, Montgomery, and someone else
The only appropriate response to this is, “Well then, yoooouuu ain’t gettin’ no Ohtani!”
(and then popping his head off and chugging him from behind the safety of the cage)
Darragh, man, who is the Phillies #2 starter next season? Like I know it’s not that simple, but who is it if they aren’t on this list?
all 3 STL choices on Nola, interesting. However, I think STL is going to make a strong push for two Gray-Giolito types for the price of 1 Aaron Nola.
I wouldn’t read too much into that. Definitely think your scenario is plausible.
So Josh Hader to Rangers is a done deal? Rangers don’t typically spend big on relievers. I hope they get him.
Similar to Nola…we kinda would prefer we didn’t all pick the same team, because it implies a level of certainty or confidence that is not there. We all just independently liked the pick.
I like the pick as well I believe Texas will overpay for Jordan Hicks as well. Hicks and Hader!!
Tim – I’m a bit surprised the only players you picked for the Bosox are ERod and BBelt.
I think it’s a perfect storm for John Henry to open his wallet, especially for a high profile starting pitcher. ERod is good, but he’s not #1 material (received Cy votes only in 2019) and he has started a minimum of 27 games only twice.
Why do you think the Red Sox will have yet another year of conservative spending? They reset the luxury tax, they have plenty of payroll flexibility, they have a dire need for a starting rotation upgrade, and Henry is finally fed up with the last place finishes.
I buy this logic. I guess I didn’t have a particular top 3 free agent where I liked the Red Sox the most of all possible teams, like when it came to Ohtani, Bellinger, or Yamamoto.
I could see a lot of different teams winning on Yamamoto though, and they’re definitely one.
In terms of Snell, Nola, and Montgomery, they’re all pretty risky contracts in my opinion. I’m not saying Breslow is going to be a Bloom, but I am not sold that he was brought in to do something as basic and risky as to sign Blake Snell.
I don’t think adding Hader would fit their biggest need, and they don’t need Chapman at 3B.
So that’s my thinking on having them in the E-Rod/Gray range as their best FA. Part of the issue is that it’s a poor class.
So, the Cardinals have dibs on Aaron Nola.
Tim – Appreciate the response and great job as always with the Top 50 list.
Right fever, I think the Sox need at least 4 guys from this list. An outfield masher, 2 starting pitchers, and a 4th guy to fill a hole somewhere.
Gary – 4th guy would be a stud lefty reliever ie: Chapman
I just don’t see the OF’er happening with only Bellinger and possibly Soto available.
Yeah I don’t see St. Louis paying for Nola.
I wouldn’t be surprised. They need top of the rotation pitching bad and they’ve got money to spend. They offered over $200m to David Price several seasons ago.
Multiple articles put the value of the Cards’ offer at at least $30M below the final offer of $217M.
You might be thinking of Heyward.
Did you see Giolito pitch in 2023? I hope the Cards do sign him
I would love it if the Rangers kept Garver. Run it back!!
I appreciate this crew for not buying into the idea that Cohen is actually just playing everyone and hes going to spend his way out of this.
Mets need some pitching and I don’t see Gio or Maeda getting signed – wasted money. I do see the Mets making a play for Yomo and Montgomery, which would carry over into 2025 with three solid starters and room for two more. I see this as a quick rebuild and a farm system that should be ranked in the top five after the deals made before the deadline. Cohen isn’t going to sit back and not be active and his interpretation of “not active” could be adding just $75M to the payroll per year.
Right to the comments…
Wanna thank you guys for this. My daughter is with her mom tonight, so am heading out for a 6 pack and a cheap frozen pizza…
Then I shall enjoy w/ the game in the background!
Tombstone 5 cheese. Or if you have them at your grocery store. Homerun Inn pizza is one of the best frozen pizzas out there. There’s also an actual Homerun Inn pizza restaurant in Chicago.
Currently reside in chicago….and went with the tombstone pepperoni !
Homerun in was 4$ more and after oregano, hot pepperflakes, fresh cut onions and a smattering of garlic powder, you can see why…..
Also grabbed a Sam Adams 6 pack octoberfest….
In the words of Samuel L Jackson and Dave chappelle promoting his beer. Good MFing Choice MFer(on the pizza choice) I’ve never had Sam Adams Octoberfest. I also prefer lighter beers)
If you’re ever in Denver or I guess Colorado in general. I highly recommend trying Upslope beer. Brewed right there in Colorado. I get the Upslope Lager kind every time I visit my sisters.
I really cannot see any team willing to go to 12 years for Bellinger, not with his track record. Boras can say he was injured or not 100% all he wants but I think teams will still be leery about such a long commitment.
My prediction is 7/175 with an opt out after two and a swell to 10/250. You may see some type of incentive based on MVP voting as well.
Every year I say the same thing about various players and every year I wind up being wrong. Even this year I’m thinking it about Ohtani and I’ll probably be wrong on that as well.
I doubt Bellinger’s contract will be incentive laden. I don’t think he’s going to be a huge gamble.
I love Denver. Play a little hoops at Wash Park then head over to Milwaukee Tavern for nachos and a beer. Life is good !!
If the Giants gave Bellinger 264 M I would cry
yea I think that salary/years projection was easily the most shocking on this list.
Yeah I’ll take the under, on most of these players not getting these projected deals above.
List out your contracts, then you’ll have receipts/bragging rights!
Cody Bellinger to the Yankees. 8y-205M.
Maybe a bit more money, but that’s where I’m currently at.
I had figured 208. I agree with you. He won’t get more.
Cap is 215
@TimDierkes, I wasn’t harping on you guys, you’d be doing great if you guys got close to half these contracts right, say give or take a little.
BTW, Good luck, I just don’t like taking the time to play these guessing games. I’ll still take the under, hahaha
Common. You have to admit some of those contracts are hockey deals. Bellinger isn’t getting that many years. That bad streak of play he had Is going to stick. Dodgers gave up on him – they saw something. 5 years @$125M worth a Boros opt out after two. First two years payout $55M of the contract.
The Giolito one is hilarious.
It’s seems like the Kris Bryant contract would be a perfect comp. I have no idea who would go 12 years, maybe Padres
It’s not about the years, it’s about the total. You’re going with 182, that works.
Re: TD
“It’s not about the years, it’s about the total. ”
Amazing how many people don’t get this
Teams want long contracts
Players want short ones
What?
There is nearly 100 million dollar difference. Everyone gets it. It’s to be determined if it’s a good strategy. I haven’t seen anyone do it until the last couple years. It’s likely a kick the can down the road strategy. Let’s be good for these four years and hold our breath next four years or 6 or 8.
It’s a lets limit the AAV on these superstar contracts so we can fill in around them while limiting the damage in the CBT.
If the Giants gave Belli 12 years and $264M I’d laugh my arse off!!! Wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets topped it though.
They gave JOC 20 mil for last season.
No way Bellinger gets that much, even though he will get a lot.
12 years for Belli?! Oh boy if that’s the case, I don’t think he’s coming back to Chicago. Jed and Tom have too much PTSD from Heyward. I think Shohei and Soto are about the only players they’ll even consider doing 10+ years on. Here’s to hoping for both.
I could see Mitch Garver going to the Houston Astros. I could also see the Texas Rangers saving some money and going with Gary Sanchez as a back up to Jonah Heim?
The Chapman price tag is kind of what I thought Bellinger would get. If the Cubs signed Chapman and Bellinger (1st) PCA to center, yikes. A+++ defense
The Cubs are not going to sign Matt Chapman and especially not at 6/150.
The Cubs don’t have a single middle of the order bat but they have several guys who can put up Chapman’s triple slash line.
If those price tags are accurate, I one hundred percent agree they are not signing Chapman and you can add Bellinger to that list.
I personally do not think Bellinger is going to get 12 years. I have in the 25 million range on 7-8 years with an opt out. I think right now there are too many question marks for a team to go crazy but if he played two years and drove in 100 runs while hitting around 30 home runs he would be in tune for a 30+ million AAV.
Candelario makes more sense. He’s cheaper and hits better.
Kershaw not in the top 50? Seems odd. Would you really rather have Luis Severino over him?
That choice is on me. I felt with him saying he’s “hopeful to return to play at some point next summer,” the chances of him being a significant contributor in 2024 are small. I also felt like there wasn’t much to say about him list-wise or contract-wise – we know he’s looking Dodgers or Rangers, and the contract really depends on the timeline and injury.
Just curious about Trevor Bauer…Is he a free agent , suspended, retired, unwanted???
Good question. Now that he’s officially exonerated, I wonder if the MLB will be able to swallow their pride and bring him back. Or maybe he’ll sue the MLB.
I don’t think you can sue a company for not hiring you, though that does seem like the logical end point of persecution complex.
case
You can sue for collusion
That’s hard to prove though
Particularly for someone who is generally viewed as unlikeable.
and for a company that specifically markets itself as child friendly entertainment.
Whether the conduct was illegal or not, I don’t think Bauer would make a very good Pixar character.
Bauer wouldn’t have a case against any specific team but if his agent reached out saying he was willing to pitch for league minimum or take a minor league deal and no one hired him, he would have a pretty good case against the MLB.
Teams can argue individually that they don’t want their reputation “damaged” by Bauer but as an organization, it’s damn near impossible to argue that Bauer isn’t better and more deserving of a job than at least one of the nearly 400 pitching jobs on a major league roster and the 100s more on a 40 man.
And if so many teams argue that Bauer would damage their reputation, Bauers legal team can sue mlb for defamation of character since it was Mandred who handed down such a ridiculous and unprecedented suspension.
What’s the suit going to be when he’s publicly stating he’ll pitch for the minimum? A couple million dollars?
He’d make more continuing his career overseas without all the drama.
Amazing…. Everything you said is totally false.
Only If they don’t hire you for a protected reason. Being publicly accused, rightly or wrongly, of a heinous crime.is certainly not protected employment. LMAO
You can provide reams of metrics proving you’re one of the best gardeners in the world, it doesn’t mean you can sue a private company for not hiring you. They don’t even need to provide a public reason. Even if he could somehow get his hands on league wide communication demonstrating collusion it doesn’t matter, jerks aren’t a protected legal class.
@drasco036 Consider how Bonds or Kaepernick collusion drama went nowhere.
Collusion against one person particularly when that one person has baggage (whether we agree with that baggage or not) is not a winning case.
He is also someone who was found guilty of breaking MLB rules in two investigations. One by MLB and the other by the arbitration panel.
He can go play in Spain alongside Mason Greenwood.
LOL… “Officially exonerated”… I don’t remember a trial taking place where evidence from both sides was presented and a neutral factfinder decided by a preponderance of the evidence that Bauer’s case was stronger.
And I don’t remember a trial taking place where evidence from both sides was presented and a neutral factfinder decided by a preponderance of the evidence that Bauer was guilty.
“Innocent until proven guilty” and all that jazz.
Maybe you didn’t see everything that came about from the supposed victim’s text messages where she talked about sleeping with him and then bruising herself and then taking him for all he’s worth.
You’re out of the loo: nypost.com/2021/07/01/photos-new-text-messages-rev…
“Innocent until proven guilty” is a legal concept, highheat, that has absolutely nothing to do with a private corporation’s decision to hire (or not) someone who they very rightly believe would negatively impact their business..
Moreover, “innocent until proven guilty” is a wonderful baseline standard for our courts of law…that nevertheless has nothing to do with our court of public opinion, in which millions of paying customers get to weigh everything there is to know/research about Trevor Bauer and independently come to the conclusion that he’s a monstrous pile of **** who they would never want to play for the team they support, financially and otherwise.
Folks who lead with the idea that Bauer was found innocent (he wasn’t) or was the target of a scam artist who ruined him miss the greater point:
Trevor Bauer is a demonstrably awful dude, and not nearly worth the damage he would do to any club’s standing in the community, financial and otherwise.
Trevor Bauer is a demonstrably awful dude,
===============================
How so? And preferably citing examples NOT including adult activities between consenting adults.
How long do you have Mr. Brady? If me or anyone else comply with your wishes it will take hours. I am not joking in the least bit. There is a preponderance of examples out there. A simple “Google” will bring up many. If you are this lazy and/or ignorant, why would I take the time to help you?
A simple google of his tweets (his previous preferred method of dog-whistling and harassment) will leave you w/ plenty: from bullying against women (and unleashing his dog-piling brown shirts) to racist birtherism winks to misogynist responses, one can go on and on.
Side note:
Remember when Tatis mocked Bauer (who had previously been trolling the Padres) in spring training after hitting a home run off him? That was classic.
“Innocent until proven guilty” isn’t relevant to this discussion. Catuli Carl said he had been exonerated, which is another way of saying he proved he was innocent. He did not do anything of the kind. He sued the girl he “allegedly” assaulted, spent a year combing through all the discovery materials he could he get his hands on until he found something that would convince fanboys around the world of his innocence, and then he dismissed the lawsuit he himself filed and showed the world the “paint him in the best light possible” evidence he found. If his case was the slam-dunk he wants people to think it would be, he wouldn’t have dismissed the case. He would have proceeded to trial to get a verdict in his favor.. Of course, that would have required an impartial judge/jury to hear both sides of the case and determine who was the most believable.
See my post above. I’m aware of the dog and pony show video he posted.
I do. 3 of them in fact. The first was by MLB and Bauer got to present his evidence and state his case. He was found guilty of breaking MLB rules against domestic violence. The 2nd was in front of the arbitration panel. Bauer got to present his evidence. He was found guilty a 2nd time of breaking MLB rules against domestic violence. Then in one of the 3 defamation suits brought by Bauer. Again he got to present evidence and state his case. Even cross examine witnesses. He lost the case. Then he dropped the other two defamation suits..
He never presented the text messages in any court case or to MLB. He read out loud what were supposedly those text messages though.
He was found guilty of breaking MLB rules against domestic violence. Not once, but twice. 1st by MLB and then by the arbitration panel in his appeal. There is no doubt that he violated those rules. Then he lost a defamation lawsuit against a publication that said he had admitted to the violation of MLB rules. That he had beat the woman in question. Anyone that even tries to defend him at this point is a pretty slimy person. Even a slimier person than Bauer is because you know that he is guilty of breaking those rules and you are still trying to defend him.
CTMcB
“If you are this lazy and/or ignorant, why would I take the time to help you?”
Because that’s how reasoned discussion works. The people making the claim provide evidence of the claim. They don’t say, “I belive this, now you go look for the reasons I believe this”. It should be obvious as to why that is
Note: please do not think that my disagreement with you is a defense of Bauer. It most certainly is not,
Cat C
“bruising herself and then taking him for all he’s worth.
You’re out of the loo: nypost.com/2021/07/01/photos-new-text-messages-rev…”
Where in the link is this mentioned?
I don’t see it
@Catuli Carl I’d like to see him sue if only to put a dent in MLB’s ridiculous, preening ‘look at us! #Us Too!!’ policy of wrecking people over mere accusations.
Endless studies show that the one major contributing factor to a repeat of dv (assuming it occurred in the first place) is unemployment or job loss.
If MLB was serious about dv the last thing it would do is suspend players, never mind that professional athletes are far less prone to perpetrating dv than everyone else in the 18 to 40 cohort.
You’d think sports organizations and players unions would be pleased with this stat and speak of it from time to time, but apparently its among the unmentionables.
He wasn’t exonerated. He was found guilty of breaking MLB rules against domestic violence, Twice. He cannot sue MLB. It was literally in his contract. He will not play in MLB again. He is a pariah and a PR nightmare.
How many years in a row can you blow past the CBT and not win before you rethink your strategy?
He’s a free agent. We don’t have any indication right now whether an MLB team will take the plunge.
I wouldn’t have think he would be on any MLB team anytime soon. He is toast.
ive got his NPB stats as saying hes not toast
He was 47th in the NPB in ERA overall this season. In a league with just 12 teams, that is not exactly a ringing endorsement of his abilities.
His ERA is slightly better than his teammate Imanaga, who MLBR projects for $85M/5. Imanaga has better peripherals, but there are too many variables to project from that.
But I’d wager he would be a #3 or better in the MLB next year.
LMAO. No. Imanaga had substantially better peripherals and Bauer has only been a #3 or better once in the majors, in 2018, and that was when he admittedly using illegal sticky stuff. If you have to cheat to be good, you aren’t any good. Outside of that year his career ERA was 4.28. That is worse than league average. So when not cheating, Bauer was a #4-#5 type starter.
I would wager that he will never pitch in the majors next season.
FA. Signed a 1 year deal. Caught his Japan farewell video last week.
I believe he is no longer suspended
Unwanted
Not for long. Some team will roll those dice.
If he played football the Chiefs would sign him tomorrow.
You ain’t lying…
Nobody wants to hit in Colorado huh
I got Soler to you. Would be the best place for him.
Me Too
So the big-market team with the greatest need for starting pitchers (Boston) doesn’t land any of the best free agent starters (beyond a maybe for Snell)? That’s simply not believable. I would expect them to go very hard on Yamamoto and Montgomery, and possibly Nola. I see them signing two of those three. They really have no choice but to do so. They’ve got nothing coming from their system.
I agree. Maybe they won’t land Yamamoto, but for the figure mentioned, the Red Sox would be nuts if they didn’t top that number. I don’t think they’ll be in on Snell, not to the exclusion of the three guys you mentioned.
I think the Red Sox will go after Nola. I don’t think Snell would be interested. Gut feeling.
After reading all this, I guess Pirates fans can be depressed that the prognosticators here don’t see them in on anyone except Manea.
Then again, these guys have the Pirates listed as a team “that could use help” in middle infield and 3rd base. Sheesh. They have so many guys at those spots that it’s likely management needs a program to tell them all apart
I would be fine with them signing Manea but I’m hoping for Belt, Montas, or Lugo, and maybe a reliever or rehab type starter like Velazquez agan.
If the Reds shelled out that kind of bread for Rodriguez, you would probably hear a thud on here from where I fell during my heart attack.
If they made some of the other signings here, I’d still be surprised but they are more realistic for what Po Boy might do if the planets are aligned and he drunk dials Bob at the right time.
I could see the Reds going for it, now that they’ve shown that the young core can make some noise. It wasn’t too long ago that they went for broke on the big stars…
Man, a decent number of pitchers here, but still doesn’t seem like enough to go around! I could see each of the Reds, Orioles, Cards, O’s, Mets, and Red Sox each signing two guys from this list!!!
Who’s Po Boy & Bob ?
Reds have an opportunity here they have not had in a very, very long time. Reds management and fans both know this. They have money available, solid young core talent and a division up for grabs. For the Reds to cheap out this year would be the kiss of death for so many Reds fans loyalty. Reds can spend 100M and only rank aprox 13th on the payroll listing as it stands now. I know they can not compete with the Mets/Yankees/Dodgers ect in the broken financial world that is baseball for the blue chip players but they need to make some serious noise with signings/trades.
Very interesting Phillies-Chapman prediction — trade Bohm to whom?
@phanatic duck
Assuming Bohm to 1st, and Harper back to RF, with trades from the outfield?
But, no I don’t see it either.
(BTW – are there 25 other Phanatic Ducks? Fantastic roster if so!)
No team is committing to Bellinger for 12 years, nevertheless 6 years
If the bet is over/under 6 years on Bellinger and you’ve got the under, I’ll happily take the other side.
People are gonna be so mad at the contract he gets
He’s at least getting 7. He’s too young to get any less.
I got so much flak for saying he would get at least 8/200. You have him getting quite a bit more so I feel a little vindicated.
I think he’s gonna get a long term deal, but for those years and that money it’s the Yankees bidding against themselves.
The only players getting anything close to 10 years or more are Ohtani and Soto. Giving Bellinger a 12-year deal would be twice as foolish as what the Giants offered Correa and it wound up not even coming to fruition which speaks for itself
There’s a big difference between 7 years and TWELVE lol.
The article predicts 12 years that’s what I’m commenting to
Tim,
Now we’re taking bets
I hope the Yankees sign him though. They need a lefty power hitter who can play CF. Both of those aspects would significantly improve their team. The next step would be to transfer Rodon to the bullpen and sign a pitcher that actually had more than 2 seasons of success
Oof, really buying that “Mets aren’t going to spend” narrative.
Great list, but some obvious disagreements with baseball’s biggest wallet!
Just because they have money doesn’t mean everyone wants to go there. I think they shot themselves in the foot by signing two big free agent pitchers and then cutting bait. Reminds me of what the Marlins did years back and then nobody wanted to go there. The big market teams all have gobs of cash so there’s no shortage for the big free agents.
Two big name free agents on rather short deals. The intention was for them not to be there long, that’s why they opted for all the older big free agents.
I don’t know. Maybe it’s a good look that they made a point of trading 2 veteran stars at their request so they could contend before they retire. At least I hope so
It simply wasn’t working. They moved pieces that won’t be part of future and added to an already good farm system.
With how much Cohen’s worth I loved his strategy, spend to temporarily plug holes and don’t sacrifice any pieces of the future. You Mets fans are pretty lucky, after the next season or 2 the future looks pretty bright and clearly an owner who is willing to spend.
I think you guys are off on the Mets. I think they outbid everyone for Yamamato. They have a few good SP prospects and Senga’s a good #2 but they have no one to be an Ace. Because Quintana only has one more contract year and age 35 they need to sign two top pitchers. I think they push for and sign either Montgomery, E Rod, or one of the other top 20 SP. also 2 good RP. I don’t think they look into any serious bats and wait for Gilbert and Acuna in the 2nd half.
Don’t forget the Phillies and Middleton’s stupid money. He can go toe to toe with Cohen and doesn’t have to pay a 60% surcharge. If they don’t resign Nola Yamamoto will be introduced to cheesesteaks.
Cohen is worth $20 B and Middleton worth $3.5 B.
That’s toe to toe? We have $251 committed for 24
and the Phils $211. You have to resign Nola and then Wheeler next year. Cohen will go over $300 and already has. Middleton’s never committed to anything close to that. Also Philly not known for its big Japanese population. It’s between the Mets, Yankees, Giants, and Dodgers.
In practical salary money that’s close enough. They only go for Yamamoto if Nola walks. I think the allure of a winning team with great clubhouse chemistry will compensate for any community issues.
I think Senga being friends with Yamamato also plays a lot into it. He’s already spoke with Yamamato about how he likes the organization, team, Cohen, and NYC. We’ll find out soon.
Yeah i cant see the mets not getting Yamamoto if money is the deciding factor.
The Silly Orioles gave up a lot for what a monthly rental of Jack Flaherty!!!!!
Why can’t they sign him to a one year deal and see if they can fix him
I don’t see where the downside is if they do that
Doubling down on a bad decision. Pick one of the other reclamation projects. Think we know that Flaherty isn’t the guy here
Bellinger is going to be a classic case of someone buying last year’s stats instead of next year’s stats. Combine the multiple years of cruddy play with the fact that the underlying stats didn’t support what he did this year and he has land mine written all over him
Except with Bellinger it’s widely known what his struggles were stemming from. He had a notoriously large swing from the start and after his shoulder injury it compounded the issue.
Last offseason he worker with hitting gurus to fix his swing. Countless analysts have went into detail and there have been videos of overlays of his new and old swing. Clearly any team looking at signing him to a multi yr deal will be going over video of most if not all of ABs from last season and seasons prior. Not to mention they ll be seeking extensive medical exams of his shoulder.
Some of these comments are “classic cases” of fans of stats and sports news, not the sport itself….
Good predictions for the Tigers scooping Gray or more likely a reclamation project like Flaherty or Severino to fill out their rotation. My money is on a Flaherty type signing…someone for Chris Fetter to tinker with.
Anyone giving that contract to Bellinger isn’t going to be long for their own job
The write up for Hader:
“A multi-inning weapon early in his career, the 6’3″ southpaw is now a prototypical closer.”
B-Reference and CBS both list him at 5’10’ and 180 pounds??
Not sure why we did that, but I removed it. Thanks.
Hader is listed at 5’11” I think he is closer to 5’9″ without his cleats.
Haders mound presence is 6’3″
@tstats
When you add the mound he is, yes. Otherwise he’s about 5’1″.
Does his bad 2022 count against him? I’m not sure (if money was no object) that I’d be happy giving 5/6 years to (a great) closer.
Surprised as Rangers as a destination, given Leclerk was so solid…
12 years for Bellinger would be nuts. He was unplayable as recently as 2022
Most of the players, the have the Angels signing, are not better than the players they have. Ohtani will not get that kind of contract from the team from Brooklyn who plays in LA now. I could see the Giants giving him that. Don’t sleep on the Diamond Backs sneaking in and signing Snell
Guys, I respect your opinions, but Reinsdorf wouldn’t even pay Ohtani $12m a year.
But he would pay Andrew Benintendi $15m/yr?
Padres have two starting pitchers as of right now and you all have them signing zero actual for sure starters. I think one of you don’t have them signing a single pitcher. Obviously there are other pitchers not predicted.
You guys have bought way way way too much into the padres are broke. I’d think after years of watching Seidler and preller work that you guys would take a stab at them still spending. They are listed on most sites as a top candidate for almost every major free agent.
Yeah, I think we all think it’s highly likely the Padres add multiple starting pitchers. We have indeed put out a scenario where those pitchers are not the top free agent ones. But I think A) some could come via trade B) some could be, like, Ryu or Miley and C) they actually could just sign some of these list free agents and it wouldn’t be a big surprise.
Padres will be all in on Yamamoto and if they don’t get him Imanaga. They will also be in on Montgomery, Yariel Rodriguez, and Fedde.
There is a chance they sign one of Lugo or Wacha. Unfortunately Martinez is gone.
I’m not super high on Imanaga. Undersized and would want lengthy contract
Imanaga is taller than Hader or Stroman. If you can pitch, you can pitch. Matsui would be the one I would be wary of.
Could the Padres sign Lourdes Gurriel due to them trading one of their outfielders? Soto, Tatis, or Grisham?
The Padres are likely to trade Grisham, but they are much more likely to sign Lee as his replacement than Gurriel.
Soto and Tatis are going to be Padres for a while. Possibly the next decade or more.
I have Lee going to the Astros
Eh, they’re probably just doing what you and I would do and make their best logical guess on where somebody is going to want to play. Every FA signs with the city that they want to go to, bar none.
Let’s play along- I predict Monty, Severino and Wade Miley sign with our Pads. I’d really like to take a flier on Jordan Hicks, too. Now, that is a fan’s wishlist that is also rooted in realism; yes I’d love Snellzilla and YoYa to land here, but it probably isn’t happening. We shall see! What’s a good offseason look like for you, fellow Friar?
I think they for sure sign one of the starters on this list that isn’t just a fringe maybe starter.
I think that add a lefty so Yamamoto and snell are top the list but I like Monty and could see that as a realistic possibility. You just don’t know who preller fell in love with.
On the line-up side of the scoresheet, I’m in on CJ Cron and the return of Dirty Sanchez; other than that, they’re just about ready! Let’s see what direction the Trade winds blow…
I’m prob a no on cron, Sanchez is fine but I like Lee who they seem to think we will get. I like the idea of cooper coming back as well.
I do think they make a trade or two but I don’t see Soto being traded.
Ditto. Enjoy the festivities, err… Offseason!
Rather see the Padres put that money in Cooper. You just know that Preller will be involved in some big trades too.
ive got Yamamoto as a RHP
12 years for Bellinger? I would love him to be back with the Cubs but not for 12 years. And Yamamoto 9 years? That’s a big mistake for a starting pitcher. Starting pitchers shouldn’t ever get more than 6 years. It’s extremely rare for deals longer than 6 years works out for the team or the pitcher.
Yamamoto is only 25, his contract is going to be long and big.
9 years for a pitcher is a big mistake. Where has it gotten Gerrit Cole. 2 playoff appearances. Getting swept pretty easily by the Astros. Other than. 324mil it’s done nothing for him. 7+ deals for pitchers are very rarely a positive at the end of the contract. Verlander and Strasburg’s first 7 year deal. That’s about it.
Mets are getting Ohtani or Yamomoto imo
If Ohtani wanted to play for a losing team, he’d just stay in Anaheim.
I think Yamamoto
I dunno man…last winter we were light on Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, Rodon, deGrom, and Nimmo – almost all the major free agents. So I did make the choice to make a more aggressive prediction on Bellinger. Gotta put ourselves out there every year, and here it is.
Swanson was a mistake. But the other 6 players signed with teams that have no budget. That’s why you were off. If Preller is off his leash again, Lee becomes $75M instead of $50M. If both Cashman ad Preller are spending-impaired, Bellinger doesn’t get near the list price. But if both are in sign-everyone mode, he could well exceed.
These numbers are generally freakishly accurate. I really appreciate all you do, and enjoy many of the times your numbers are considered crazy and then they land pretty close. Your crystal ball is working.
@Pads Fans
Gotta wonder if the market will correct a little after last year’s insanity egged on by Cohen. if you consider your team looking to cut payroll, and the Twins openly announcing it… and after the lack of success that Cohen had in just throwing silly money at the market… the Rangers have their rings but also some big contracts so do they have another Winter like last off-season in them for spending?
I do think that Boston, SF, the Dodgers and Yankees will open up the pocketbooks. I just hope that there is a little return to sanity after last year’s contracts.
After Ohtani, I’m hoping we don’t see any 10 yr contracts offered.
These are some really high predictions. I’ve seen other outlets giving Bellinger and Snell about half that and Montgomery at about $110M.
They have Monty getting 6/25 per…your other sites might have him at 5/22 per. It’s not that big of a difference when you think of it. And it only takes 1 of 30 to overpay. Anyone who has Snell getting 1/2 that amount is dumb.
When it comes to Snell…
5/117 = Spotrac Market Value
5/115 = Bleacher Report
5/122 = The Athletic
7/200 = MLBTR
One of these things is not like the other ones, one of these things… isn’t the same.
Snell is good, but for a guy who will be age 31 and averages about 3 WAR per season, 7 years seems like a big reach. The $28.6MM AAV, I could buy over 4 years, but I think that 5th year will cost him a little.
Snell is BETTER than Rodon was in his platform year. Rodon got 6/162. Snell will get more.
Gotta factor the 2023 NLCY
Rodon came off a 2.25 FIP year with essentially the same amount of innings. Smell’s FIP is over a full run higher. I think that the 2 came off pretty similar final seasons.
Snell doesn’t have FA market scarcity working in his favor like Rodon did. There’s more higher level multi-year guys available. I think it’ll end up being pretty close—wouldn’t shock me if he comes in a tick or two lower.. The Rodon already looks terrible. I wouldn’t pay Blake Snell either.
You could argue that 1 site is legit and the other 3 are rags. I never use Sportrac so I won’t comment on them, but BR’s articles on trades and contract value aren’t generally worth the time it takes to read them, while the quality of Athletic articles vary by who writes them (many of the ones written on trades and free agent signings are complete nonsense). All in all, MLBTR’s free agent guesses are the best of the bunch in my opinion. Dismiss them if you want. We’ll know in a few months.
@Pads Fans – No, Snell was not better. Rodon was dramatically better than Snell and had a track record the previous 2 years dramatically better than Snell.. Topping that off, Rodon was younger.
’21 Rodon – 4.9 fWAR, 132.2 IP, 2.37 ERA, 2.65 FIP, ERA+185
’22 Snell – 3.6 fWAR 128.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 2.80 FIP, ERA+ 112
’22 Rodon – 6.2 fWAR, 178.0 IP, 2.88 ERA, 2.25 FIP, ERA+ 137
’23 Snell – 4.1 fWAR, 180.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 3.44 FIP, ERA+ 182
Snell walking a ton of guys. It’s sketchy. High K/ high BB guys tend to be inconsistent, in the same way high K / High power hitters tend to be inconsistent. Between those stat lines and seasons, especially with Snell now being over 30, nobody in their right mind picks Snell. Nobody.
@mp2891 – Sure, you could argue that. Spotrac uses comparative modeling.
6/162 a30 Rodon
5/108 a29 Castillo
5/100 a29 Musgrove
3/71 a30 Stroman
Those were the comps for Snell driving Spotrac’s estimate.
spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/blake-snell-18356…
Rodon had a worse injury history. That should’ve played into the total $ also. He obviously got way too much but Snell is a little cleaner in that respect.
I wouldn’t have touched Rodon and I wouldnt touch Snell now.
Snell came off a 2.25 ERA vs Rodon’s 2.88. Snell had a major league best 182 ERA+ and 5.8 H/9. Rodon had just a 137 ERA+ and gave up a still great 6.6 H/9./ Snell was 45% better according to park adjusted stats. Both were exceptional pitchers in their platform years. Snell is the likely CY winner this season.
There were fewer FA starters on the market last season. That much is true.
Snell is still going to get a raise from what Rodon got. The guys on here and in other publications think so as well.
You just showed how Snell was better.
Rodon 2.88 ERA, ERA+ 137
Snell 2.25 ERA, ERA+ 182
Snell was 45% better.
Thanks for making my point for me.
And as usual Spotrac is very wrong. Come back after they sign and see how much Snell got. Let us know how wrong you and Spotrac were. You won’t though.
I mean we’re just picking stats as we want here. One side can point to his FIP, xFIP, and you can go ERA+
Blake Snell is going to break the record for BB/9 to win a cy young. He’s notoriously had command issues and hasn’t done anything to dispel that notion this year. He’s going to get more than those Spotrac estimates but I won’t be surprised if it’s slightly less than Rodon. I think it’ll be closer to him than Robbie Ray but both are entering FA right after the CY.
There’s more options on the market and legitimate command issues. Rodon’s deal looks horrible right now.
You are going to be VERY surprised then since this and two other major publications have him at around $200 million.
When you allow one of the lowest BA with men on base and RISP in history, you can walk guys that you don’t want to pitch to. That is what he did.
Not cherry picking when I posted the key thing a pitcher is supposed to do, limit run production. ERA, RA/9, ERA+.. Those tell the story. The last one is park and competition adjusted. Snell was the very best in baseball. Rodon was not.
Yeah, I mean the key is sustainability moving forward. Not if Blake Snell had a great year. He obviously did. But there’s flaws in what you’re buying at that price point.
Blake Snell intentionally walked no one and has had always had command issues. Maybe he could’ve tossed 200 innings if he would’ve just pointed to first base instead of “not throwing” to guys he didn’t want to. If some team gives him $200. OK- I will be incorrect. Rodon got more than I would’ve. Wouldn’t bet on it being a good investment.
I’m definitely hoping my RS don’t pursue Snell. Every number screams out for regression. He’s almost 31. This is not some 27 year old figuring out new tricks.
Snell’s issue is he’s a Wipeout pitcher. He works really low in the zone especially on his curveball. So he’s gonna walk alot with that approach but also is extremely hard to hit.
Whoever signs him should make a point to have a catcher who is very good at framing to try and mitigate the walks.
I don’t love those comps for Snell. For one, Snell is going to be a 2X Cy Young Winner, and I don’t recall any of those other guys even being in contention for a CYA. For another, Snell is going to be the top free agent pitcher on the market this year. Supply and Demand will drive his price up.
Personally, I would be shocked if Snell didn’t sign for $180-200MM. We’ll know soon enough.
What numbers specifically scream regression?
You didn’t watch any of his starts, did you. You still can. They are all still available. Go watch some and come back and tell us that he didn’t pitch around batters all the time.
It was quite common to see him walk a batter that he didn’t match up well against and then strike out the next two.
@websoulsurfer – No sense in breaking it out for you if you can’t spot the regression to expect from the numbers posted above.
Also, you’re saying he pitched around good hitters? Couldn’t that just be stated as he walked a lot of good hitters who didn’t swing at his offerings?
It doesn’t matter if you “pitch around” guys on most MLB clubs. Now you’ve just added base runners. Walks will haunt. It’s a big data thing…
As a Royal’s fan I’m flattered.
I see KC going after: Keirmeier, Manea, Montas & Cueto. End.
Great work lads! Is it crazy that I’d rather have Monty join the Pads than get Snell back?
Not at all. Montgomery is a horse.
And Snell is always broken
Snell has averaged 28 starts the last 3 seasons, so not broken. Maybe a slight limp in previous seasons?
Prior to this past season when was the last time he pitched 150 innings?
That has nothing to do with being broken and everything to do with his innings getting limited because he threw so many pitches early in starts.
He made 11 of 12 possible starts in 2020 and had 27 starts in 2021 with the time he missed being for adductor strain in mid-September and a stomach bug (viral gastroenteritis) in late June. In 2022 he only made 23 starts because of the same adductor muscle issue that ended his 2021 season. Then in 2023 he made all 32 possible starts. That is 3 of the last 4 seasons that he has not been broken for any extended period and he has made 2/3 of his starts or more in every season.
Ahhh the best part of the offseason!
Why would the Red Sox sign Hendricks? They have Martin and Jansen for another year, they have bigger needs than another late-inning reliever (and the other “predictions” are terrible too)
“Thanks”
Lololol! Hilarious Tim!
I think the will trade one of their backend pitchers. Maybe Pivetta or Jansen to get a big deal done. They will need a replacement, which I think might be Hector Neris.
Pivetta’s not good enough to get a deal over the top. I don’t see them moving Jansen at all, especially not to replace him with Neris
Pivetta in a deal with Verdugo probably for a top prospect and a #4 Starter. I think Neris would replace Martin, who would become closer.
A Pivetta/Verdugo package looks like a fit for the Astros.
But a true #4 starter depending on years of control is more valuable than the 2 of them with only 1 year each.
The Astros also don’t have a #4 starter.
JV and Framber are #1s
McCullers (when healthy) is a #2
Javier,Brown,and L.Garcia(when healthy) are #3s
Urquidy and Grance are #5s.
I wonder if the Red Sox may take France (5 yrs of control) and a RH OF prospect like Kenedy Corona?
They might want Colton Gordon instead of Kenedy Corona but otherwise, its a pretty good deal for both sides.
I’m not saying it’s not a fair deal, but the Astros are very weak in top level pitching prospects and up against a 40 man crunch.
Gordon is one of their few potential impact pitchers in AA or AAA and still has time before he needs to be added to the 40.
I don’t see the Astros giving up one of their top 4-5 pitching prospects along with 5 years of a starter ( even a #5 type) for 2 guys with only 1 year of control.
And neither are stars. Verdugo would be a 70-75% starter in a strong side platoon LF and Pivetta woukd be bullpen depth.
I’m not saying they sren’t good players and they fit the Astros needs quite nicely, just not extremely valuable getting Arb3 salary and only 1 yr of control.
Maybe they finally give up on Forest Whitley? Unless MLB gives them an additional option year for him he needs to be on 26 man next year.
Sox are also very weak in that department. We really only have two of our top fifteen prospects as pitchers, not counting Brandon Walter. I think they would extend one of them also in the trade.
the cool thing about 2 1’s (which Framber might not be) is you push everyone else down! So it goes JV (1), Framber (2), McCullers (not ever healthy so lets take him out), Javier (3), Brown (4), Urquidy (5), France (6). So they do have a 4th starter whos name is Hunter Brown, and based on your breakdown he’s better than a 4. Why settle for a 4th starter with you already have a 3 who will be acting as a 4?
Hunter Brown has the upside to be more than a 4 starter but his actual on field results don’t say that he is that at this point.
To be clear, I don’t think Brown is a #3 yet but has that potential and trade value based on that potential.
This is about trade value and matching up that value in a trade
If Verdugo and Pivetta = a #4 starter then they don’t get a #3 in return just because he happens to be the 4th best starter on a given team.
My point is the Astros have 5 starters that are too rich for the suggested offer and 2 that are too poor. That it would not be a good fit as a 1 for 2 deal and require more players included.
Let me take a swing at that. Because Hendricks won’t pitch in 2024 and both Martin and Jansen will be FA at the end of the season.
I guess the Cleveland Guardians are planning to lower ticket prices, parking prices and concession prices for the 2024 season. That and free tee shirt friday may help them attract 800000 fans to home games this year. Or they will sell beer even cheaper in the “district “. We all know Cleveland is in the business of selling beer and baseball is an afterthought.
Cleveland never supports that team so it doesn’t matter what they do.
Yamamoto going to mets sorry
Yeah, I mean, if you’re taking this list as some sort of suggestion the Mets won’t go after him, you’re interpreting it wrong. We listed him in the suitors, we all find it plenty plausible.
I can say with confidence we’ll get most of the team picks wrong. We’re just putting out team picks for fun that we think make sense.
Yankees have become the Mets of the late 90’s / early 2000’s – afraid to get involved with players they know the Mets are interested in and getting embarrassed by the team across town.
Mets aren’t going to be big buyers this year. Learned their lesson last year.
I can buy that, except in the case of Yamamoto. I do think they will go after him.
I’d be shocked if the Braves signed Gray because of the qualifying offer. I see them much more likely to sign E-rod, Giolito, or even Manea.
That rejection of the MLB International Draft is really going to sting free agents this year, I think.
You’re not wrong based on their history. However, I think they’d be interested for that right FA and deal. If they really believed Gray’s stuff will age well, and he could possibly take the sting away from Fried’s imminent departure, then possible, especially knowing that Fried will receive a QO (and turn it down) – thus receiving the draft pick they would lose signing Gray (though a year late).
Here we go…
The most hilarious aspect of this article is all the players the White Sox are signing. I almost fell out of my chair laughing and it’s a recliner.
Personally I didn’t put anyone with them over 32 mil, and Yariel Rodriguez is a shot in the dark in any regard. Darragh kind of stuck his neck out that they’ll have a pretty free-spending offseason.
ERod is a steal for that imo. Giolito 2/44 makes no sense. Would one of the teams that had him this year offer him a QO if they could? Yet alone tack on another year?
Not sure about the White Sox, Angels, or Guardians, but I’d imagine at least a dozen teams would happily pay Giolito $20.325MM for one year.
It does make sense if the top line starters are getting huge contracts. Might need to offer higher to get someone. I really hope Giolito signs a team friendly contract for a year with the Dodgers to work out the kinks.
Worst predictions ever!
Go ahead and put yours right here!
Tim Dierkes signs with the Pittsburgh Pirates for 22 years / $374MM. Seems reasonable.
Pittsburgh is looking to find and leverage market inequities to turn them into competitive advantages and they heard Dierkes works with a new piece of technology called a laptop computer and he must furnish his own technology according to new GM Ben Cherington.
According to Cherington, team owner Robert Nutting wouldn’t bite on replacing their 2007 volumes of Encyclopedia Britannica, the largest investment in the scouting department in the past 50 years and certainly not for some new fangled computer device. He’s seen the punch cards they use and he’s not impressed.
Cherington got the okay to sign Dierkes, but only after off-handledly remarking Dierkes could save the Pirates billions of wasted dollars in free agency, international signings and terrible drafting. Nutting said “now you’re talking! I’ll spend anything to pay less salary to the players!”
More to come…
Shohei Ohtani to the Yankees. People will say, “but they have no money.” People will say, “But Stanton is their DH.” But the truth is, Yankees are hungry to win after only winning 82 games. They always have money, they are always looking to win, and they’re always looking to add superstars. I think they outbid the Dodgers for Ohtani.
LAD is willing to pay into the future. Freeman is being paid until 2040 (0% interest). IF Ohtani is willing to be paid until 2099, he could be wearing Doyer blue.
Ohtani stays on the West Coast. That’s my prediction.
Agreed. SF could finally get their man. I just don’t see LAD as having the largest offer without deferred money. Even if they do get him, they still need TOR pitching in ’24, with Kershaw being out an extended period of time, Buehler not at 100% post surgery, and Ohtani not able to pitch. Sure, he replaces Martinez as DH and they the games best 1-3, but a half billion and you still need pitching? Would they offer an insane AAV to bring Bauer back? (Not likely).
I think they have their sights set on Soto over Ohtani.
Soto wouldn’t be a great choice IMO. Ohtani gives them much more and is more of a pure hitter. There is no guarantee Padres even trade Soto to begin with.
Ohtani being more of a pure hitter over Soto doesn’t jibe.
Soto is in the 99th percentile in Chase% while Ohtani is in the 40th percentile. In Whiff%, Soto is in the 75th percentile while Ohtani is in the 12th percentile.
But- Ohtani can pitch when he gets back go form. 2 for 1 for the Yanks and all they have to do is sign him
Yankees are locked in with many people that will need AB at DH and Ohtani won’t pitch for a year. I think they go after Bellinger to give them a LF bat in CF and at least one of the top starting pitchers. Probably Yamamoto. I also think they go big after Hader.
Aside from Stanton, who’s locked into DH?
No chance Orioles owner John Angelos will let Mike Elias spend $9-10 million on a reliever, he’ll barely let him spend that on a starter.
Agreed. Plus, he’s only been giving out one year deals. SP FAs in line for multi year deals are probably a no. Furthermore, I can’t see Elias giving up a draft pick for a QO SP.
I want the O’s to sign Giolito. He has HR issues but we’re talking about the deepest LF wall. I’d like to see us work with him but it’ll be pretty costly on a short term high AAV deal. So will the team do it? No clue.
I don’t think we’ll spend much on the bullpen at all. Elias has been too good at plugging that up for pennies
Spent most of the past 2 weeks at our house here in Peoria watching the Arizona FAll League and talking to everyone I can that works as a scout or FO personnel that are at the games. If you have never been, come out next season. The scouts and FO personnel often outnumber the fans and the level of play is high caliber.
From what I have been able to glean, here is what the execs and scouts I have been able to talk to think the Padres are likely to do. Its quite different than what the media and fans think will happen
Extend Soto and Kim.
Soto – 15/482 to start in 2024 – NO deferred money
Kim – 8/122.5 to start in 2025
Signings
Lee – 5/50 (most thought this was a gimme)
Sanchez – 2/10
Cooper – 1/5 to DH
Montgomery – 5/90 with 6th year vesting option
Yariel Rodriguez – 3/24 with 4th year mutual option
Shota Imanaga – 5/75 with appearance bonuses that could bring it to 5/90
Jordan Hicks – 4/40
Erick Fedde – 2/6 with 3rd year mutual option
This adds $70 million to the payroll if I did the math correctly. The Padres are loathe to give up draft picks and none of these would do that. I really think the Padres are going all in on Yamamoto, but that does not mean they will get him and most think he is headed to the Yankees or Mets. He wants to play in a big market. If the Padres do sign him it would add about $8 million to that payroll number.
Trade Grisham, Hill, and Barlow. Non-tender Nola. That carves $17 million off the payroll.
Snell, Hader, Pomeranz, Wacha. Martinez, and Lugo is another $65.7 million coming off the payroll
So the Padres add around $70 million in payroll and subtract $83 million.
This is something that seems in keeping with what the Padres have done the past few years and what Seidler Greupner, and Preller said they will do. It would be a younger and possibly stronger team.
I also would not rule out Preller making a trade for a top line pitcher instead of signing someone like Hicks or Imanaga. With the showings of Marsee, Nett, and others in the AFL the Padres have a large group of very attractive trade chips.
This was a pretty fun synopsis. Nice job dude.
Thanks. All I do at these AFL games is seek out people that know way more than I do about baseball and what is going on. Its such a blast to come to the AFL games because if you are interested you can pick the brains of the guys that actually work in the game.
The padres are league mandated to get below 200mm in payroll. Their debt to income ratio has been over league maximum numerous times over the last 10 years.
@wiilism stop making stuff up.
Yes, all indications are the Padres are cutting payroll. San Diego fans don’t realize the party is over. I am stunned Preller has a job. What an awful job. Some of those contracts in 2-3 years, oof.
Can you point me towards “all indications” or are you referring to the one local article from Acee who gets it wrong all the time?
And as pads fans highlighted, even if the padres “cut payroll” to ~200 million (which no one knows if it will actually happen) the party is far from over. We have a core locked up to compete for a decade.
Google San Diego payroll. There are tons of articles and the most of them suggest they will cut payroll. The Forbes article last line.
“How do the Padres balance a 20% payroll reduction with a need to improve upon their 82-80 win-loss record and reach the postseason? That’s the question general manager A.J. Preller must answer over the coming months.”
I assume they are getting their information from an actual source not hopeful fans.
I meant the crazy spending, not that they would be a bad team. They will have a lot of holes to fill and traded a ton of talent last couple years. It all goes back to how Preller still has a job?
Yeah, so all of those articles are just a reprint of the one article written by Acee. You should read the full article not headlines.
I did. It was a Forbes article. It was written by Daniel Epstein. There is one in the athletic, sports illustrated, a bunch a local news stations. They do all say pretty much the same thing. It’s likely they will cut payroll. But sure go with your gut
All those articles are relying on Kevin Acee. There has been nothing else.
That article references the Acee article. ALL of the articles about the Padres supposedly cutting payroll in 2024 reference the Acee article. Acee has already backtracked on that claim. Pay attention.
How does Preller still have a job?
After Fowlers prescribed “SPLASH” in 2015 that boosted ticket sales by 20%, the Padres shifted to Preller’s plan which was to build up the farm system, baseball operations and analytics staff, and scouting. They publicly announced in 2016 and over and over in subsequent years that the plan was to contend in 2021.
In 2020 they were in the playoffs. In 2022 they were in the NLCS.
In 2023 they sold out season tickets and drew a record 3.2 million fans and completely sold out 59 games. In 2023 they had a disappointing season and still finished with a winning record for just the 3rd time in the last 4 seasons after not having a winning season since 2010. Season tickets for 2024 are already sold out. Padres revenue has risen from bottom 5 in MLB to top 14 and they have gone from getting a revenue sharing handout and draft pick to paying into the revenue sharing pool. They have 5 position players on the roster that have put up super star numbers (6.0 WAR) in the last 3 seasons and No-No Joe and Darvish leading their staff. After the 2022 trade for Soto and Bell, they already have a top 10 farm system, are expected to sign Leo Devries in January, and will likely have 7 players in the top 100 before the season starts in 2024. LOTS of trade capital in that prospect base.
Should I go on or are you getting it now?
All those articles reference the ONE article by Acee. An article that Acee has already backtracked on.
I will go with what the owner, CEO, and GM of the Padres have said. Not what unnamed sources in an article by a writer that has already said he was wrong.
Only time will tell. I haven’t seen any articles to the contrary. Maybe you have some inside sources, who knows. If you are happy with Preller, awesome. They have a hefty payroll for 2024 and a lot of players to replace. We shall see. Maybe they will push it to 300 million.
No they are not. The Padres owner, CEO, and GM have all said that they are going to run back a similar payroll in 2024. So where do you get garbage like that?
Padres payroll might be a little less in 2024, but not because MLB said they have to. It will be because they will be able to get rid of some big contracts and replace them with players that are good but cheaper.
Certainly not that garbage about a $200 million payroll. Even the ONE writer that made that claim originally has backtracked on it already.
Man I expected more FA predictions to the Cubs with the place they’re in with their rebuild at the moment and with them signing Counsell and whatnot. Maybe they’ll do most of their damage via trade?
I did think about making some Counsell-related upward adjustments for the Cubs. I’d be really surprised if they get Ohtani, and pretty surprised if they re-sign Belli if it’s $225MM+. Snell, Nola, Monty, or Hader would surprise me.
Beyond that you could convince me on just about any free agent with the Cubs, including Yamamoto. In fact, we pushed Yamamoto in part due to teams we think will be interested in high but not the other top SP.
Great insights! Thanks, Tim!
Apparently the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, and Cardinals will all have a 1B budget next year.
Huh ? The most any of the 3 has the Giants adding to next year is about $60m. I think they are at about 125m before arbitration. Sounds very doable to me.
If the Dodgers sign everyone that they have two people or more saying they will sign at the prices given their payroll will be $304 million.
Every time I see your screen name, I remember earlier in the year when the Braves went with Arcia how you went on and on how bad that was. It was fun.
Don’t remember that but will take your word for it.
We are talking about this Arcia? 98 OPS+, -6 DRS, and 1.6 WAR. You think that was a GOOD thing? That is fun. Maybe they will keep him at SS in 2024 and give the rest of the East a shot at the division title.
I mean who wants a guy that puts up a 4.8 WAR when you can have a guy like Arcia, right?
Now compare their salaries
Why in the world would the Red Sox sign Brandon Belt? Casas is a lefty 1st baseman. What purpose would Belt serve but to spell Casas occasionally and to DH? This prediction doesn’t make any sense. You don’t want another lefty 1st baseman who can’t play anywhere else, not when you have a rising star in Casas. And Belt isn’t enough of an impact bat to command most of the at-bats at DH. Head-scratcher.
I think Belt is a good enough hitter to command most of the DH ABs against RHP.
I should think the Sox would be aiming higher with DH ABs than Belt, but maybe the pickings will turn out to be fairly scarce.
Belt is a good enough hitter to man the IL, if that is what you mean. Guy is never healthy and should not be a first choice for any team
They have Casas and no room for DH bats. I don’t think there’s any scenario where they add another DH. Except if they go for Ohtani.
Casas can and should play first every day. Either Belt or Garver add a legitimate bat to this lineup, and Belt can be had on a one-year deal. He still mashes right handers.
The BoSox need a RH 1B/3B who can play “D” to mix in with Devers-Casas when they DH. Yoshida also needs DH time. It would be nuts to sign Belt or Garver. The Sox just used their 1st rd pick on Teel and have 3 young C’s who would be good back ups.
Belt would live on the IL
Pretty high numbers for many of the those guys? Had inflation hit the MLB FA market, or is it because of those crazy contracts last year that the entire market went up?
Inflation and this egregious spending has hit every market.
We see readjustments all the time though. Remember a couple years ago when teams thought these mega long deals were idiotic?
There’s not that many teams giving out the super long contracts. If the well dries up for those that do—-we could def see another shift back to the 5-7 year deals instead of these idiotic 12 year pacts.
Those long deals are offered to reduce the AAV, but it makes more sense to offer shorter deals and deferrals….but I guess players don’t want that.
Think it’s the teams more so than the player. Deferrals don’t knock down the AAV. The padres have been driving these extra long lower AAV deals. I wonder if that’s the new trend or just a short term fad.
The Pads are going to have a lot of dead money on the books in a few years.
No one will complain *if* they win the WS,,,
They wont dry up. In fact, we will see more of them as teams game the system by lowering the contract AAV with longer deals for star players.
I don’t think anybody is going to break up Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman again. I think Heyward had a huge part in helping Outman past his early struggles, and break out after the all star break. He was a huge part of last years Dodgers team that did more than exceed everyone’s expectations, well, at least until the postseason. Nobody expected that team to win 100 games.
I’m agree with you. I didn’t expect the Dodgers to win 100 games with a “transition” team. I would like Heyward back to work with Outman.
It all depends if Jason H. is interested in a team friendly contract.
I feel like the hiring of Counsell changes the free agent dynamic. I believe some who wouldn’t have seriously considered the Cubs before may now. Bringing Counsell in tells me the Cubs are serious about winning it all in 2024, and will be in the hunt for all the top free agents.
It certainly puts the Cubs in a win now position. Won’t be surprised at all if they spend a lot this offseason. Which they’ll need to do if they expect to win
They aren’t getting Ohtani though. Won’t outbid Yankees, Mets, or Dodgers
They have 50+mil in room this year more in ’25 and a strong farm, top 5 team Mets are already $43mil over, Yanks are $15 mil over Dodgers have plenty of room and seem the logical choice… Ya never know though.
I don’t understand the logic here. They signed Counsell for 5 years. It’s not like they only have him for one year. So how does that tell us they expect to go for it all this year?
They had Ross for another year. If they weren’t gonna go for it this year they probably just stay the course.
I thought Counsell would go to a team like the Mets.
Me too, but apparently the Cubs outbid them. And it’s closer to home for him.
Counsel works well with all players and is patient with young guys. The Cubs will needs this with their minors guys coming up. Ross is by no means a bad manager, and Counsell’s hiring doesn’t mean ” all in” immediately, but he owns that division, consistently winning it without always having the best team (especially on offense).
Have to agree with that. You don’t give a manager a record contract unless you’re all in.
Can’t see the Angels signing Hoskins (although it is a bit of an Arte move).
Absolutely no way on Chapman. Yes, the Angels love paying declining guys to eventually become unplayable and get paid from home but Arte won’t sign off on a domestic abuser.
Why wasn’t Steve part of the predictions?
First day back from paternity leave for me! I was involved early on in discussing contracts and rankings, but I’ve been off for several weeks.
Between editing and helping out with news coverage today, I didn’t have time to get a full slate of picks together. My picks will be viewable in the contest.
congrats!!
Yeah, congrats Steve.
Congrats on the new little one!
Congrats!
Thanks, Steve, and congrats. I guess I did not realize that even though I visit this site multiple times every day ha
Wow. Is Bellinger really going to get 12 years?
He is only 28. Teams seem to like to stretch out the years to bring the AAV down for the tax even if the player might be washed up by then.
I cant see anyone shelling out 264m for Belli – Feels like a 155-170ish guy. But it’s a thin year and he is a good lefty CF – just had 2 bad years and was great for 40ish games this year and mediocre the rest. Could be a horrific contract.
Oh you just know someone’s going to do something loud and stupid!
It’s pointless for almost any other team that is not a top ten or so salary/buy a champion type team. Why should I really care if I am a Reds fan? Or a Marlins fan? Rangers bought their World Series and I only see this getting more and more the same until MLB actually does something like a max payroll.
It has actually been that way a while now and getting worse by the year.
But Robby the robot says the game is fine like his masters tell him to.
I disagree about the Rangers buying the Series. Carter, Taveras, Jung, Leclerc all drafted. Garcia, Lowe, Heim, Garver, Dunning, Montgomery and Sborz all trades. Seager, Semien, Eovaldi and Gray free agents. This is hardly a situation where a team bought a championship. Oh…I forgot about the one armed man DeGrom.
I’d respectfully disagree with your disagreement; the FAs you listed for Texas included the #1/#2 hitters in the lineup (both of whom were good for 6+ WAR in ’23) and 4/5ths of a starting rotation (it’s good that DeGrom being out didn’t hamstring them, but: him, Semien, Seager, and Eovaldi were all signed from the top end of the market, and Heaney was also signed as a FA). I can’t remember exact totals for the ’23 season, but in ’24: DeGrom, Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney, Seager, and Semien will account for $143.5M in payroll space by RosterResource (that’s higher than the DBacks total payroll for ’23). You could not count DeGrom’s payroll obligations and it would still be an exorbitant total.
Compare the DBacks FA composition, which was: Bumgarner/Davies (both released due to poor results), Mantiply/Thompson (both signed FA deals after clearing Waivers), Kelly/McGough (signed out of KBO/NPB, respectively), Longoria (a platoon bat), and Castro (who ultimately wound up as the 6th inning guy). You’d be hard-pressed to argue that the Rangers are “homegrown” when so much of their top-end talent was bought on the open market (including signing 4 SP the last two offseasons).
Not saying it’s a bad thing; those are the rules the game is played by, after all. But the notion that the Rangers built their success predominantly from within the system is a bit farfetched from where I’m sitting.
gtownfan
I disagree about the Rangers buying the Series.
==============================
They spent about $150-160M this year on recently purchased FAs.
If you give me that type of spending money, I can turn maybe 26 teams into contenders.
9 of the t15, and 3 of the t5 payrolls didnt make the playoffs this year. 4 of the 6 that did make it didnt make it past their first rounds of the playoffs. the other 2 are the phillies and rangers.
Why all the hating on the Mets, no Yamamoto , Ohtani or Hader ? Jeez
The Red Sox are going to acquire 2 top pitchers this offseason.
Good article. I believe Nola is the correct pick but I also believe the cards try to add one of Snell, Gray or maybe Montgomery. I believe they actually will finally invest heavily in pitching this year which they should have been doing over the last three years.
Probably not after Mo said they were going to be “prudent” with spending this off-season.
Prudent means mid-tier guys like Lugo, Wacha, Martinez, Giolito, Flaherty, Stephenson, etc….
So, pretty much nobody to the Mariners. That’s about right.
Number Two in this list for you – TREVOR BAUER – innocent man, cool dude, awesome teammate, great pitcher. Don’t thank me.
Go away
These writers must be on crack if they don’t think the Mets will sign at least 1 of the top free agents. Fred Wilpon isn’t the owner anymore. I predict the Mets won’t sign most of the picks these clowns have picked, maybe the relievers thats about it.
List out the guys you think the Mets will sign?
Yamamoto, Duvall, and Wacha. They could also go for Gurriel Jr or add another starting pitcher via trade.
SP;Yama, Maeda, 1 0f (Monty, E-Rod OR Glasnow trade)
RP: Hader
Need to neutralize tough L hitters esp ATL
Offense Lee or Gurriel, Urshela, def. type Belt pt 1B-DH), Alonso DH more to improve defense
Try to add 2 B type RPs (Hendriks, maybe Lopez or Yariel?)
Try to trade for Tucker HOU OR Xander (3B-1B-DH) def give up Alonso and more
.. Maybe Alonso & 2 more to Wrigley for PCA, Madrigal and 1 of Suzuki or Morel
With Diaz I doubt the Mets go after Hader, but a LH setup man would make sense.
Although the only LH reliever on the FA market that I can think of is Matsui and I am not sure his game, or small hands, will translate to MLB.
You have thick skin Tim to not take these comments personally, I would get upset! Thanks for the write up, I think you guys did a good job!
Thank you…it develops over time. What grounds me on this stuff: it’s super fun if you let it be, and also, no one actually knows. For example, I think you could poll all 30 GMs and a bunch of the best agency people and get contract projections all over the map.
So we make educated guesses that definitely include gut feel but also that we feel like we can defend. And when we’re inevitably wrong about some, sometimes very wrong, we try to learn from it.
I think they will at least sign Ohtani or Yamamoto. maybe both. They might sign Chapman b/c all their 3B prospects underwhelmed. They will prob go hard for a few relievers.. They need at least 3 starting pitchers, don’t see Jordan Montgomery coming back to nyc. I also don’t see them signing anyone in their mid 30s or older after the way this year went.
I wouldn’t call the Mets the favorite on Ohtani, but with Cohen it can’t be ruled out.
I think just about everyone thinks they could sign Yamamoto.
I’d be very surprised if they were to sign Ohtani and Yamamoto.
Chapman is not crazy, but he will be 31 in April and doesn’t seem like a guy you’d sign if you’re taking a small step back or trying to avoid risky contracts for older players.
That’s my take on your picks.
This is not FA related, but where do you see Mauricio fitting in the Mets plans for next season.
In terms of what position by most games 2B, 3B, corner OF (25 games) even try 1B (20 games). I want him to get close to 600 ABs
40 games as DH maybe. In minors he played SS.
I hope they give him significant ABs before they decide to trade him IF they do
Could we make this post a collapsible one in which you click “read more” so that we don’t have to scroll past a whole page to get to the older articles?
First time I’ve ever agreed with a Yankees fan.
After you all picked the Dodgers, Shohei will sign with Seattle or the Giants.
I agree. I think if Ohtani didn’t get hurt the Dodgers would be in the bidding 100%, but hard to say if he would be the same type of starter. I would rather have JD Martinez or JT back.
I’m still in shock David Ross got canned.
List of players the Brewers will consider signing:
Their own arbitration eligible guys (maybe)
Rowdy Tellez (after non-tendering him
Daniel Vogelbach (when Rowdy opts to sign with a Wisconsin Tavern League team as a pitcher)
Tim Dillard (as the new manager..wishful thinking on my part, but ANYTHING to get him away from the broadcast booth!)
Trade idea: TO SF Corbin Burnes
TO MIL -Wade-Yastremski- Davis- Roupp
Trade idea. We would like your superstar pitcher for our over 30 year old scraps.
Wade 119 Ops+ -> Tellez 82 Ops+
Davis 103 Ops+ > Anderson 86 Ops+
Yaz 113 Ops+ > Taylor 91 Ops+
combined 16mm = Burnes 15+mm
Major upgrades at 3 positions and a type # 2/3 pitching prospect.
I’m surprised there are so few Red Sox mentions in this entire article. There is no chance the sox end up signing Liam Hendriks or Brandon Belt and I don’t even think Blake Snell would be interested coming that far north. The Red Sox owners are in a desperate situation and the fanbase feels like the are going to go on a spending spree. The team need 1-2 more right-handed bats, 2 top of the rotation starting pitchers, and a backup catcher until Kyle Teel makes it to the big leagues. I have them signing Aaron Nola to a 6y-148M deal and trying to acquire the other pitcher. If the trade falls through they could target a Giolito type arm.
Fenway – Breslow knows pitching so the clowns that made these predictions have no idea of what they are talking about. Breslow has a ton of money to get two SPs and I think he’ll go after Yamamoto and Nola.
I would love to see Ohtani in Boston but Devers is a DH, Yoshida is a DH and Ohtani is a DH so that’s nearly $100MM a year on DHs. That’s not going to happen. Bloom was an idiot and wasted nearly $50MM on two DHs so Breslow is tasked with moving one of them to balance the talent and improve the defense.
I say trade Devers for Arenado, sign Yamamoto and Nola and make Yoshida the DH. That solves the primary defensive problems and fixes the rotation. The rest of the team is good enough to win 90 to 100 games with those changes.
Trollfree –
2018 Red Sox World Series.
Devers 3B 121Games ( -11Rdrs, -7 OAA )
Bogaerts SS 136Games ( -8Rdrs, -4 OAA )
The Red Sox won 108 regular season games and the World Series with the poor defense of Raffy and Bogey.
Your theory that the Sox can’t get results with Devers at 3rd base is shattered in 2018.
Sox need to improve their outfield defense – Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu/Duval RF, Yoshida DH.
Get a right-handed utility player who can play second base or third base in defense who could relieve Devers in the late innings on defense.
Why’s there no chance they sign Liam Hendriks? I think just about any decent team has a reasonable chance of signing Liam Hendriks.
Is the Red Sox fanbase always right?
Was there an offseason where they signed two top of the rotation free agent starting pitchers? Or…how often has anyone done that?
Tim – Simple answer to your questions. Breslow has never been the GM so there is no precedent for what he might do. HOWEVER, a guy named Dombrowski inherited over $40MM in dead contracts from Ben Cherrington and still convinced ownership to spend close to $30MM in back to back seasons on top of the rotation SPs. (Price then Sale).
So the history of it happening may not be precisely what I suggested but they have nearly $80MM more under the CAP money than Dombrowski had.
The BoSox need 2 SP’s with Sale/Bello. Which pushes 3 of Houck, Crawford, Whitlock Pivetta to the pen. Hendricks makes no sense.
The Sox don’t have to sign 2 top SP’s . One and a 2d tier guy like Wacha would push 3 of Pivetta, Houck, Crawford or Whitlock to the pen.
If they put Whitlock in the starting rotation again next spring training, I’m jumping in the soccer mom mini van, driving to Florida, and standing next to the Fenway South bullpen and screaming at the top of my lungs,
“WTF, leave the dude in the bullpen and spend some money on a legit, no more experiments, starting pitcher!!!”
No is giving Bellinger a 12 year contract and Yamamoto is going to the Mets, they will pay him the most, he wants to pitch with Senga and he’s their top priority
Probably someone will. Hard to see that contract age well. He probably will dh as he slows down with age
What makes you think he wants to pitch with Senga? Is it possible he’s also another team’s top priority?
A lot of people like to think that Japanese people like to play with other Japanese people. If I played soccer, I am not going to play for Manchester just because there is an American on the team that I couldn’t pick out of a lineup.
Are you seriously not gonna have Julio Urias
His situation is sketchy
I seriously doubt any team is going to “have” Mr. Urías next season
The California Penal League team maybe?
Gotta be real, I don’t see Bader as a top 50 FA. I tend to imagine Taylor is a better player and gets more money, prolly from MIN.
Oh cool, Sonny Gray leads baseball in a made up stat for players under an arbitrary height starting at an arbitrary date!
Sonny Gray is one of the best short pitchers of the last 30 years or so. Does that help?
Podb
Every stat is made up
I would love to see the Astros offer Heyward 2 / $16M. Would be a great fit as a platoon w/ Jake Meyers.
Vs RHP: Heyward/ McCormick/Tucker
Vs LHP: McCormuck/Meyers/Tucker
1. Shohei Ohtani
* Giants
2. Cody Bellinger
* Giants
3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
* Yankees
4. Blake Snell
* Red Sox
5. Aaron Nola
* Angels
6. Jordan Montgomery
* Tigers
7. Matt Chapman
* Cubs
8. Josh Hader
* Phillies
9. Sonny Gray
* D-Backs
10. Shota Imanaga
* Dodgers
11. Eduardo Rodriguez
* Cardinals
12. Teoscar Hernandez
* Marlins
13. Jeimer Candelario
* Brewers
14. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
* Mariners
15. Jung Hoo Lee
* Nationals
16. Jorge Soler
* Rangers
17. Lucas Giolito
* White Sox
18. Marcus Stroman
* Angels
19. Seth Lugo
* D-Backs
20. J.D. Martinez
* Marlins
21. Jordan Hicks
* Braves
22. Jack Flaherty
* Reds
23. Mitch Garver
* Tigers
24. Michael Wacha
* Cubs
25. Kenta Maeda
* Dodgers
26. Rhys Hoskins
* Brewers
27. Robert Stephenson
* Astros
28. Yariel Rodriguez
* Orioles
29. Reynaldo Lopez
* Twins
30. Mike Clevinger
* Pirates
31. Kevin Kiermaier
* Twins
32. Nick Martinez
* Angels
33. Aroldis Chapman
* Athletics
34. Michael Lorenzen
* White Sox
35. Sean Manaea
* Twins
36. Harrison Bader
* Padres
37. Tyler Mahle
* Dodgers
38. Gio Urshela
* Marlins
39. Amed Rosario
* Angels
40. Whit Merrifield
* Guardians
41. Justin Turner
* Brewers
42. Jason Heyward
* Dodgers
43. Yuki Matsui
* Mets
44. Frankie Montas
* Rays
45. Brandon Belt
* D-Backs
46. Hector Neris
* Tigers
47. Jakob Junis
* Blue Jays
48. Luis Severino
* Dodgers
49. Liam Hendriks
* Retire/don’t know
50. Tim Anderson
* Athletics
Alright I’ll see myself out, thank you very much!
Well that sucked
Doyer fan eh? To be fair, it’s almost pretty certain they’ll be finalists for Ohtani and Yamamoto. I just think the Giants are going to go full out desperation mode and offer Ohtani something that Friedman won’t match.
As for Yamamoto, he should be the #1 priority for the Dodgers IMO. I think it’s a real toss-up between LAD and the NY teams. I only picked the Yankees because it gives Cashman an excuse to say, “See! I did something!”
Can you spare some of that time you have?
It surprisingly did take a little longer than I thought it would lol
SF wont get both, Monty to DET NO,
Anderson to MIA, AZ, MIL, LAD, or TB?
Otherwise I see a lot of reasonable predictions
Yeah I can see Anderson in MIA. Not so much the other teams but who knows
At least you have Merrifield going to the Guardians where as the authors had NONE of the top 50 going to the Guuardians which is absurd.
Guardians Offseasons Top 50 Free Agents Signed
2022-23: 1
2021-22: 0
2020-21: 0
2019-20: 0
2018-19: 0
I think you and I have different definitions of “absurd”
The Guards prefer to draft and develop guys. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if they take a pass. They could use a bat but the same was true last year. They dealt Bell and acquired Manzardo
More absurd is the cardinals signing (a) rodriguez and (b) nobody else.
Holy Hell! Did Scott Boras write this article???
It’s in Scott Boras’ interests for his clients to sign for more than our projections. If Bellinger gets $162MM, he will look bad.
So at $264, your goal is to make Scott look bad. : -)
I think max for bellinger is 8/200 and even that feels high
Dodgers fan here.
Ill take two of Nola, Snell, Montgomery or Yamamoto and a Hader chaser please.
No to Ohtani as great as he is. I get there is a marketing side to this but I am just talking the baseball side.
Whoever gives Bellinger anywhere close to that projection is nuts. I like and root for Cody but cmon.
Otani to Giants or BoSox
No way in hell do the Dodgers offer Ohtani 12 years, much less half a billion dollars. I suspect someone ate a lot of sugar before coming up with that prediction. As well as Bellingers.
Put your numbers down for posterity
11/440 with a $500k per start bonus?
12 years for Bellinger? Is any GM willing to fall on that sword?
If AJ Preller has the green light to give it out…….
I predict Belly overshoots his market but ends up getting bailed out by the Rockies…..Kris Bryant 2.0
It’s the total that matters, not the years
Tim, to a point it does matter. Some teams prefer to sign extra long deals and stretch the AAV out. But you do that and you’re still carrying around a sizeable AAV for quite some time.
If last offseason is any indication, most teams signing star players, especially those paying the CBT, have decided they’d prefer to spread out the payment and pay less taxes, even if it means several more late 30s seasons than they’d prefer.
Yeah, we’ll see what the trend is this year. The Padres were really driving those extra long deals. Phillies dipped their toes in with Turner but I’m not sure that’s a definite new trend. We’ll see though.
I understand the strategy, but some owners will look what a mess the padres have become where they need well over $300M simply to put together last year’s team. Or DJLM where you have someone that is less than a starter, but still owed 3 more years.
Yeah, Joe. I think you’re going to look at the Padres as another cautionary tale in a few years. I feel like this is cyclical though. A few years ago I thought these extra long mega deals were becoming a rarity. After we saw what they didn’t turn out to be for their signing ball clubs.
They’ve come back in a big way but I don’t know that this is going to be the norm forever. These guys won’t play well into their late 30’s & 40’s. 12+ year contracts are crazy for guys who have hit free agency.
At the very least, three different teams did it with Turner, Bogaerts, and Nimmo.
I don’t think there’s an argument that you’d rather have paid DJLM $90MM over four years than six. At a certain point the team can release the player, but the time value of money is in their favor and they pay less CBT.
You’re assuming the player isn’t getting anymore cash for agreeing to tack on a few extra years at the end?
I think it was more like DJ we’ll give you 4/82 OR we’ll throw you 6/90 to help with AAV and building a better team right now.
Three teams with unlimited money, but they will become the cautionary tale. SD is already on the precipice of having the other shoe drop. They will need something in the range of $320M just to re-assemble last year’s team.
I don’t think there’s an argument that you’d rather have paid DJLM $90MM over four years than six.
================================
Getting 6 for the price of 4 is good business for everything, but only of that is the real price.
But adding another $10M at the end, just to stretch it out, isn’t the same thing. It is basically $90M/6 instead of $80M/5. So instead of $16M/year, it is $15M/year.
But just as importantly, if you were doing this to drop under the cap for one year, then it makes a lot of sense. But you are just deferring the tab if you plan on being over every year.
For most owners, yes but Jim Crane of the Astros, for example, considers the years very important.
He’s on record as stating as much, and only Altuve has been offered a contract of over 6 years. He even limited a 25 year old Yordan Alvarez w/ 3 years of control remaining to 6 years.
Have a hard time seeing the Giants hit on any of the top guys. Been burned too many times.
No Trevor Bauer on the list?
If the Phillies pick up Matt Chapman and Blake Snell, they will be even scarier than the last few years.
Also, no way Bellinger gets 12 years. Nice comeback and all, but that ain’t happening.
Kruk – Completely agree. Bellinger lost it as quickly as he found it so his risk factor in as high as anyone being suggested for 4 or more years. Would you bet your house on Bellinger being great in 2024? I wouldn’t bet $20 bucks on it, especially if he plays in a high pressure location.
Dodger fan. You’re correct. Belly is / was my favorite Dodger and I couldn’t stand watching him hit. It is painful to watch. Sometimes he just looks clueless up there.
Bauer went unsigned. So will Urias. At least for another year. Maybe Bauer signs this year after “sitting out” last.
I think he’ll be fine. It’s iffy, but it took two plus years for him to rebound. So any gm giving him 12 years must not like their job very much.
This is gonna be such a bleak Mariners offseason
Rangers fan here.
If we were to sign Hader and bring back Montgomery and Garver, I’d be absolutely thrilled.
Other than a couple of other veteran/journeyman relievers to bolster the middle innings, this team doesn’t need anything else.
Brandon Belt and Liam Hendricks really don’t make any sense for the Red Sox… Belt in particular makes 0 sense… Casas is the starting 1B and LH… if Turner leaves the most likely DH would be Yoshida, also a LH hitter… just makes 0 sense. And Hendricks is just weird… a team in desperate need of immediate SP improvements spending time on a rehabbing 35 year old reliever (when they also already have Jansen) is bizarre. I like the one pick of Blake Snell but otherwise I find it highly unlikely they literally only sign one SP — oh and Eduardo Rodriguez is another incredibly bizarre one for the Sox… I guess I wouldn’t hate it but I believe there were issues about his work ethic and commitment at times last time he played for Alex Cora so I’m not sure if they’re past that or not… seems strange for a fit though. I guess if you assume they totally strike out on top arms… maybe? idk weird picks throughout but otherwise tremendous information!! great for reference and info (other than odd team choices)
I have no idea what these writers are looking at. None of those guys are coming to the RS. If they sign a DH, it’ll more likely be Hoskins for the righty bat. The BP isn’t exactly a top concern, and I’d bet on Whitlock or Houck being our closer in 2025. ERod isn’t coming back. I get the concern for family, but he just seems a little flaky. Snell’s BB9 is off the charts.
Yamamoto is a name that will live in infamy.
Twelve years to Bellinger is begging for trouble.
Bellinger—Twelve years, $264MM.
You’re trolling us. : -)
Interesting list, as always. I think there’s a decent chance Candelario ends up on the Yankees. They need a 3B’man, they’re trying to rebalance their lineup, and they’ve shown an interest in him previously, including this past season.
Interest rates are up from last year, so there will be fewer dollars overbid than expected.
I don’t see the Bosox grabbing more lefty hitters, even if they’re the best. All their young guns and top prospects bat in the right box. I don’t know the precedent for all lefty lineups.
Think Sox aren’t stupid enough to pay Snell. Walks just cause too much damage with how the park fields. Despite his reputation, Bauers would be a sneaky good pick for them. They’ve done well with dislikeable pitchers like Schilling in the past.
You’ve got the Astros as a possibility for only Soler in the top 50? Clearly, you don’t understand how badly Crane wants to win.
Tim Anderson over Clayton Kershaw?
OK dood.
Tim explained that Kershaw is out for most of the year and is only likely to sign with Texas or LAD. He chose to exclude him for those reasons. It’s just a game
Love this annual article! I see y’all don’t think the Braves will be super active, which makes some sense. I think yall have the wrong (too expensive/too long) contracts that they might go after. Look for them to go for guys on the bottom of this list and lock one or two SP up with a 1 or 2 year deal. I just don’t see them going big with a Gray or even Wacha
Id want Hader And Wacha for the Braves. Igesias had too many blown 9th inning saves. But this is an agent driven site. 12 years for a player who can’t stay on the field long enough? Smsh.
This is painful. The worst list you all have made in 18 years. Have you not read that the Red Sox are going to be extremely active, yet none of the top 25 are projected to sign in Boston? Yamamoto isn’t going to the yankees. Also, do you all think the Dodgers are going to enter the season with a $600m payroll or $700? Christ do better.
“My team isn’t featured enough, therefore this is bad.”
Lol.
That would be your go to thought. It’s actually based on all the publicly known information that Boston is going hard this offseason, but these writers obviously think they aren’t going to. I could gaf about ‘my team’ of which I don’t own is featured.
Okey dokey.
In regard to the RS, most writers don’t understand BB all that well. Someone has Garver going to the RS for $39M/3, even though they have a minimum wage catcher that is probably about as good as Garver, and even though Teel might be on the RS in 2025, and even though they need pitching badly.
IRT the Dodgers, they probably have close to $100M to spend, so I don’t see them needing to spend $700M to sign someone like Ohtani.
JoeBrady =
If Garver be the Red Sox’ primary catcher is a clear downgrade on the defensive spectrum compared to Wong. I understand the Sox need a right-handed hitting bat, but do they need another DH? I’d give Duval the pick over Garver and he won’t block prospects.
If we need a RH DH, I’d prefer it be someone that can backup Devers & Casas. For those purposes, Hoskins would work, I think Garver is going to be paid premium dollars as a catcher, and that’s not what we really need.
Think I’d stay away from Snell this winter. Not sure I buy the recent success
I agree I feel Snell is about due for a TJ surgery
I can’t recall a free agent I’ve wanted my team to avoid more than Bellinger this year.
Bellinger prediction is one of the most unhinged MLBTR predictions I think I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been coming to this website for more than a decade. Eager to see how it shakes out!
What’s your Bellinger contract?
I dunno, but it ain’t 12 years man! That’s so wild. I get the idea that some team will absolutely look at his age and convince themselves he’s an AS again and worthy of a big contract. I think that 100% happens. But to the tune of like, 6-8 years, not a dozen.
$136M for 6 years; Mutual player/team opt out after year 3.
Year 1,2,3 – 22M (72M) Years 4,5,6) 20M each year = 132M total
Team & player option year 7 (player 15M, team buyout 7M)
Year 1 signing bonus 5M
Did he get Lasik eye surgery in 2023?
His batting average injuries is concerning for 2020-2022..
Hopefully no PED inflated results in early years. Tests don’t catch everything
His offense is too variable but very useful as a defensive OF.
Let some other GM get fired by giving him more. Like SDP, NYY
2-Bellinger-Way too high
3-Yamamoto-A little high, but very tempting at that age
4-Snell, the number is right, but I smell major disappointment
5-Nola, Welcome to the RS at that number, but I think he gets a little more.
7-Chapman fits a lot of teams really well
8-Hader-6 years for a closer is too long
15-Lee-At that price, welcome to the RS. I hate to draw parallels between two players simply because they come from the same country, but Kim and Lee had identical .921 OPS’s in 2020 for Kiwoom, with Kim being three years older. And since he can play RF, that allows up to trade Verdugo. And since he can play CF, it might make Rafael available in trade when anthony gets promoted in 2025.
26-Hoskins, fair number and a decent fit for the RS.
31-KK-Love him for the NYY
Hmm. I feel that Pirates are very close to contending. They have some nice hitting pieces but I would like to see them invest in a young durable pitcher. Not an ace but one who can eat innings and take pressure off of Keller and Contrereas,
E-Rod may be out of our range, but T. Mahle, S.Manea, or even N. Martinez make alot of sense.
Also McCutchen needs to be brought back!!!
Just in time for all their players contracts to expire and unload
Who do you mean? Reynolds and Hayes have huge extensions. The rest of their core is still on rookie deals.
Keller might be close and it would totally make sense for Pitt to lock him up
So Arte is going to bring in someone accused of domestic abuse and someone suspended for gun charges? Roll eyes.
Talk about two of the dumbest predictions of all time.
Turner and Severino to the Rays. Turner would be “pricey” for TB, but they need a guy who can hit, and can come through in the clutch; only problem is TB doesn’t need another RH bat. (a guy can dream, leave me alone)
I don’t think the Rays have any interest bringing Severino on board. I would be disappointed if they did.
As for Turner, I always love folks saying the Rays need to bring in so-and-so to hit because the Rays lack offense. Well…., Turner is going to be 39 next year and his 2023 numbers would rank on the Rays’ 2023 team 9th by wRC+ and 10th by fWAR. Rays have a lot of good players. Turner would be one of their worst (and yet most expensive I imagine). I know most people think the Rays win with smoke and mirrors, instead of good players, but that just ain’t so.
I do not see Cody B. getting that contract!
Maybe 175 million over 7 years but he shouldn’t break 200 million.
Giants were willing to give Correa more. They have wanted a splash signing for years and will pay absurd money to do it. Is it wise to make Bellinger the face of the franchise? I don’t know. If he reverts back to his battle to be above .200 years in dodger blue, this could be a catastrophe!
51…Ryan Braiser….FPG/Redsox…whyhazee/Redsox…Trolfree/Redsox….olmtiant/beer vendor…..hope you guys are right!!!!
Good grief.
What a massive overpay for the Free agent ER class about the be released from the rehab hospital in the walk year.
Bellinger. – overpay
Edwaurdo R – has Miami even been considered.
Sorry, but what are they thinking with their predictions? Do they really think Steve Cohen isn’t going to spend? Do they really think he hired David Stearns to break down and do a complete rebuild? Sorry, but this really destroys any credibility they may have had.
Agree, they are not good.
Twins have a lot of rotation holes to stand by and do nothing. With the payroll being very low and future payrolls being even lower, I look for them to be very active this offseason. This team has a chance to win big next year – a rebound from Correa and (dare I even say it) a healthy Buxton, look out!
I think it’s interesting how the MLBTR team has the Giants and the Yankees on the #2 and #3 ranked free agents, and that Tim has the Giants on Yamamoto while the others have Bellinger. I’m hoping Tim’s right. I’m not trusting Bellinger over the long term. Tim, though, has Bader over Lee for the Giants in CF which I disagree with. I think the Giants will attempt to sign other Asians upfront in free agency in an attempt to lure Ohtani. It starts with a huge offer to Yamamoto followed by strong offers to Lee and possibly to Imanaga as well.
I’d be happy to see the Yanks sign Belli for a dozen yrs. I like it when they get shackle themselves into those albatross deals.
The Yankees getting back on the FA treadmill the way they did when George destroyed the team for a dozen years is… amusing, in its way. Of course history repeats itself—if the people in question are idiots. As for not wanting to give a 12-year deal to a guy with just one acceptable stud season since 2019!?? Miser!
–Aside from his fluke MVP year, his lucky year, Bellinger needs a BABIP around .320 to crack 4 WAR, which may never happen again. And here I thought 5/120m was exorbitant for the guy with the highest variance in MLB outside Shohei Ohtani’s ulnar nerve.
It’s a good thing shoulder injuries never recur and are always just a one-time thing. Ask Michael Conforto.
The prices are ridiculous. 3/45m for Soler, who just had his first barely adequate season since 2019??
2020-2023: 2.3 rWAR
2020-2023, per 650 PA: 0.9 rWAR. —That’s zero point nine.
He’ll be a 32 year old DH in 2024 who has troubles with RHP. This is the profile of a guy you offer 1/$4m to, just because he had a tolerable walk year, but he projects to put up a .730 OPS in the DH slot, basically his hitting from 2020-2022: .219/.312/.425/.737 for a 99 OPS+.
3/45m for that? Any team that gets close to that deserves what it gets.
Before he signed with Miami, I stated that he had a career 3.7 bWAR, but I also knew that someone would overpay. And they will again, because all you need is one GM to think “this time is different”.
After looking at the list I firmly believe this year’s class will produce more disappointing contracts than any other free agent year in the history of baseball. I mean just in the top 10 you have players who were thought to be either done a year ago or who are injured or wildly inconsistent predicted to get 150+ million.
This was interesting today. twitter.com/SNYtv/status/1722318162358575530
Guess you can throw out the rumors of Soto being traded. As well as the ones of the Padres cutting payroll.
There are too many “headscratchers’ on this list to name them all, so I’ll just start off with one of the biggest ones. Did any of you even watch baseball last season? How about Mets games? You could have fooled me. The free agent signings all of you picked for the Mets are nothing more than some average, “over the hill” pitchers, and a bunch of player reclamation projects. That would be just like last season’s roster all over again, And all the while, the competition keeps getting better and better. If you had a problem with the Mets payroll last season, just wait for next season . . Because you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Nothing but wild guesses. Why would anybody that has another choice want to play in shat holes like Detroit and San Francisco? Also Cali state income tax is gonna kill you
Why sign Ohtani when you could add a number 1 & 2 starter in Snell and Nola for basically the same price tag?
Surprised to see a few Nats picks. I think they avoid all these guys and keep to bargain basement guys hoping to get 6 month hot start that they can trade at the wire.
Darragh picking the White Sox to sign 4 players from this list, astonishing 2 from the top 12 players, must not know that Jerry Reinsdorf owns the White Sox. A team destined to lose over 100 games, AGAIN!
Well its the middle of January and still tons of players to be signed thanks Scott Boras
12/264 was the offer for Bellinger going into the winter, obviously he’s not getting anywhere near that amount. 150 with opt outs seems to be the best he can do now, Let’s remember he was the 2nd player on trade rumors list!
Urshela and Amed Rosario did not get anywhere near these predictions.
wow boras clients got torched this offseason
ya’ll thought belly was gonna get 12 years and 264 million!!!? snell 7 years/200? both BARELY got last minute cheap deals. montgomery still isnt even signed.
what an insane offseason. ohtani has enough $ now to spend the rest of his life gambling on “international soccer” games hahaha