As is frequently the case for the Rays this time of year, the club has a sizable class of arbitration-eligible players to sort through this offseason: with 16 players eligible for arbitration this winter, only the Yankees have more. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects that group of players to cost a combined $46.3MM in 2024 if all 16 of them are retained. That could prove to be an untenable situation for the Rays, as RosterResource estimates the club’s projected 2024 payroll to be $130MM, an increase of more than $50MM over this year’s $79MM budget.
While the club has recently indicated that it would be open to increasing payroll next season, it’s unclear to what level an increase would be. Even a substantial increase in payroll could leave the club looking to shave $20MM or more off of its payroll, to say nothing of any potential external additions the club could look into making as they aim to build on a 99-win season in 2024. Given these realities, it seems likely that the Rays will at least shop around some of the players from their deep pool of arbitration-level talent this offseason.
Of Tampa’s group of arbitration talent, just four players are projected to make more than $3MM next year: infielder Isaac Paredes, who is still just 24 years old and enjoyed a breakout season in 2023; right-hander Aaron Civale, the steady mid-rotation arm the club dealt top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to acquire this past summer; outfielder Randy Arozarena, a face of the franchise and former Rookie of the Year who made his first All Star appearance in 2023; and Harold Ramirez, a right-handed slugger the club acquired in a minor deal with the Cubs prior to the 2022 season who splits time between DH, first base, and the outfield corners.
Among that group of four, it seems wildly unlikely that the club would deal Civale after winning the bidding for his services just three months ago. Given his youth, positional versatility, and strong 2023 campaign, it seems more likely that the club would rather retain Paredes as a member of the club’s core rather than trade him away just as he enters his prime years.
While Arozarena may be the most expensive of the group by far with a $9MM projected salary in 2024, the 28-year-old outfielder is under team control through the end of the 2026 season and provides consistency to the Rays lineup. He’s made at least 600 trips to the plate, with a wRC+ of 120 or better, 20 home runs or more, and 20 stolen bases or more in each of the past three seasons. That consistency, power and speed makes Arozarena a key piece for the Rays going forward, to say nothing of his status as one of the most recognizable players on the team.
That leaves Ramirez, who has contributed to the Rays in a big way over the past two seasons. In 869 trips to the plate with the club over the past two seasons, Ramirez has slashed an impressive .306/.348/.432 with a 17.4% strikeout rate, good for a wRC+ of 123. Good as that production is, it’s worth noting Ramirez carries a hefty platoon split; while he was roughly league average against right-handers with a .281/.329/.420 slash line in 310 trips to the plate against them this year, he absolutely crushed lefties to the tune of a .387/.411/.555 slash line in 124 trips to the plate. His career splits are roughly similar, with a .719 OPS against righties and an .816 OPS against southpaws.
Valuable as a lefty-mashing corner bat can be, the Rays are fortunate to be well-stocked in terms of DH and corner options. Yandy Diaz has locked down the first base spot with star-level production the past two seasons, while slugger Luke Raley made a strong impression during his first run of significant playing time this year, slashing .249/.333/.490 with 19 home runs in just 406 trips to the plate while covering first base, DH, and all three outfield spots. This also doesn’t consider young infield prospect Jonathan Aranda, who slashed .230/.340/.368 in 103 plate appearances with the big league club this year and could play his way into a bigger role next season.
Additionally, each of those options has more team control remaining than Ramirez. While the 29-year-old will be a free agent following the 2025 season, Diaz is under control through 2026, Raley through 2028, while Aranda has yet to accrue a full season of service time in the big leagues. Given the club’s bountiful options at the position and Ramirez’s relative lack of team control, he could be the perfect trade candidate for a Rays team interested in lowering payroll to make other additions or even simply in leveraging a valuable asset from a clear area of depth.
In terms of potential suitors, there are several teams that could conceivably be interested in Ramirez’s services. The Brewers and Cubs both have uncertain first base situations headed into 2024, with Rowdy Tellez looking like a potential non-tender candidate and Matt Mervis having struggled through his first cup of coffee in the majors earlier this year. The Cubs, of course, are the club the Rays acquired Ramirez from prior to his breakout in the spring of 2022.
Meanwhile, the Padres could look to add a right-handed complement to Matt Carpenter at DH, with Ramirez as a strong option to fill the role the club hoped Nelson Cruz could fill in 2023. The Diamondbacks and Braves could also find themselves in search of a bat like Ramirez this offseason, in the event Tommy Pham and Eddie Rosario depart the club this offseason. In truth, there’s few aspiring contenders that couldn’t make use of a lefty-mashing corner bat with two seasons of team control remaining, giving the Rays plenty of potential paths in the event they do pursue a trade of the 29-year-old.
M’s could use him, too.
Exactly what I was thinking. Ty France’s sudden drop off in slugging and run producing has given Servais a problem.
I don’t know if Ty France is playing thru injuries or if he’s simply being “found out.” Either way if the pipe dream of Shohei or Soto doesn’t materialize HRam would be a good start at improving our lineup
Is really that hefty of a platoon split, if his “weak side” is league average?
Exactly. A .281 average is hardly “league average”…..and that’s his bad split.
The Guardians would be a pretty good fit for him in the corner outfield.
I wish they hadn’t let Big Harold go in the first place, never understood that decision.
That made zero sense to me as well. Seemed to me he was exactly what they were looking for to offset their perennially lefty heavy roster. The way they discarded him showed the FO saw no value in him whatsoever. I seriously doubt they’d entertain reacquiring him.
Left out Harold’s projected #. It’s cool, I looked it up, 4.4 mil.
Not sure how the brewers lineup w their own payroll restrictions or the cubs considering that’s the organization he came from- u don’t see to many trade backs for a guy.
With that much increase of projected payroll, freeing up 4.4 mil doesn’t move the meter. So doubt rays look to move him as he seems to always deliver in clutch situations. Unless rays need to move him to free up at bats.
Just one more sign that Glasnow is the one who’s gotta go. Doubt he makes it through the winter meetings
I can’t see trading Glasnow until near the trading deadline, when they know if Springs and Baz will bounce back after TJ. It’s a pitching heavy free-agent market along with the Japanese pitchers coming stateside. I think he will have much more value later.
@Mad – I agree. Plus, their starting pitching depth is thin and they will inevitably put at least three of their SPs on the IL during the season. The only scenario where trading Glasnow makes sense is if they get starting pitching in return from some of the bats they trade.
I doubt Glasnow’s value goes up when you only have him for 2 months. They’ll get slightly more now and won’t be paying his $25MM salary. That’s a ton for TB to shell out on 1 guy.
Cubs- Candelario. It happens.
With Gurriel, jr., Longoria and Pham all free agents, I could see the D’backs checking in.
Why did the Cubs dump Harold Ramirez?
His bat would of really helped the Cubs.
No way. Who dreams up these trade scenarios ? Why would the Rays trade an underpaid .300 hitter who is well-liked, to give an opening for Aranda ?
They have more underpaid RH hitters, and its the Rays way to keep adding to their talent base. 2 yrs of this player brings back 6 years of a less expensive player(s).
I understand, but .300 hitters are a rare commodity these days and the Rays team is filled with way too much swing and miss. The need more guys like Ramirez,not less.
That may be true, but staying to payroll is not optional in Tampa, like it is in big markets.
Brandon Lowe would be a better trade candidate. A 2b with power could bring a nice return of prospects. Package him with Margot and you save $18.75 mil.
They have Curtis Meade ready for 3B… move Paredes over to 2B and Siri is their CF.
Tigers need a right handed bat for the OF and a lefty bat on the infield. They have a hole at 2B. Lowe could fill 2B and Keith/Lupcius or Kriedler at 3B. Margot can play all 3 OF positions, he could rotate with the three lefty hitting OFers… Greene, Parker Meadows and Carpenter.
What would it cost? Who knows… the Rays have a completely different way of rating prospects, they could want Short alone and he could become the next Troy Tulowitzki at least until he is traded away from the Rays.. But more like a combo of decent prospects like RHPs Flores and Madden.
Margot and Lowe only have 1 more year of team control. They are making top dollar, that’s why I think they will be gone.
I agree with trading Lowe, but after the Meadows/Paredes trade,the Tigers might be gun shy. Other teams will probably be scared off by his recent injury history. I think packaging Glasnow and either Lowe or Margot makes the most sense after the 2024 all-star break, with another team picking up a good portion of their salaries.
Lowe has two reasonably priced team options after next season, but agreed he seems like a likely trade candidate. The Rays would need to pay someone to take Margot off their hands. Glasnow is making $25M but with only a $15M tax hit so he’s probably as good as gone.
The LH bat for the IF is Keith. Put him at 3B and let him play. FA offers nothing for 2B, so Tigers may as well give Ibanez and McKinstry/Maton another shot. With Greene, Carpenter, Meadows, Keith, Baddoo, and Maton/McKinstry provide lots of lefty options. The Tigers need a RH power bat to pair with Torkelson. Currently, Rogers is the best RH bat behind him, then Vierling. While Malloy is a possibility, I have little optimism that he will be even an average LF. Ramirez looks like a possible fit, but Arozarena sure would be a dream come true.
He’d look real good in Padres Brown and gold..
I carried him on my fantasy roster for most of the year, and while he was a solid producer, it drove me nuts when Cash sat him religiously for several games at a time.
Analytics told Cash to sit him out because the numbers said so….
They won 99 games this year so the analytics were probably right.
God, Nick Deeds’ writing is brutal. So many errors. “Good as that production is” is not proper English. “As Good as that production is” is. Grammar is optional to this hack.
He even does it again in the next paragraph! “Valuable as a lefty-mashing corner bat can be”—come on. The word “as” isn’t optional.
Have Walls to for 2B but needed at SS.
Harold Ramirez would check a lot of boxes for the Mariners. Elite bat vs. LHPs? Check. Can hold his own against RHPs sometimes? Check. Covers 1B/DH with the ability to back up LF/RF if my favorite player Jarred Kelenic loses another fight with an inanimate object? Check, check, and check!
It wouldn’t be the Rays if they didn’t trade overperforming players in return for some reclamation jobs. Yes, trade him.
Unless he goes to Atlanta, the Dodgers or St Louis, of course.
I’d hardly consider Harold Ramirez as a right handed “Slugger”. I’d say he’s more of a contact guy based on his numbers.