While the Mariners were officially eliminated from postseason contention on the second-to-last day of the regular season, the club saw many positive developments throughout the 2023 campaign, including the emergence of Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo as capable big league starters and the emergence of Jarred Kelenic as a quality regular in the outfield. Perhaps most noteworthy for Seattle going forward, however, is the offensive breakout of a player who’s already been with the club for several years: shortstop J.P. Crawford.
Seattle was widely viewed as a potential landing spot for one of the 2022-23 free agent class’s marquee shortstops: Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald was among those who urged the Mariners to jump into the fray of the middle infield market last offseason, and for understandable reasons. Not only had the club’s one-year deal for second baseman Adam Frazier proved to be a disappointment- the veteran slashed just .238/.301/.311 in 602 plate appearances with Seattle that year- but Crawford was in the midst of a difficult year as the club’s primary shortstop.
The 2022 campaign started off extremely well for Crawford, as the lefty slashed .340/.435/.546 in the first month of the season. Unfortunately, Crawford scuffled the rest of the way, slashing just .221/.317/.287 the rest of the way. Crawford’s brutal performance at the plate through most of the year can be attributed to power numbers that were nothing short of dreadful. He hit just two home runs over his final 117 games in 2022, and his BABIP over that stretch was just .254 thanks to extremely poor quality of contact. Crawford’s 2% barrel rate, 85.1 mph average exit velocity, and 29.7% hard-hit rate were all in fifth percentile or worse among qualified hitters last season, per Statcast. Though Crawford was a solid defender at shortstop the previous season, defensive metrics indicated Crawford’s lack of production last year included his glovework, as well: among 37 qualified shortstops last year, Crawford’s -11 Outs Above Average was second lowest.
Given Crawford’s down season in 2022, calls for the Mariners to pursue a franchise shortstop were understandable. As such, comments from president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto early this past offseason that while the Mariners would pursue the coming class of shortstops, his “great preference” was to acquire a player willing to play second base were puzzling to some. Ultimately, the club worked out a swap with Milwaukee to bring in second baseman Kolten Wong as Crawford’s partner up the middle rather than sign one of the four star shortstops, none of whom ended up moving to the keystone with their new clubs this year.
The deal for Wong proved to be a blunder, as the 32-year-old slashed a dreadful .165/.241/.227 across 67 games with Seattle this year before being designated for assignment on the day of the trade deadline this year. Despite that major misstep, Crawford’s managed to make the club’s deference to him as the regular shortstop look perfectly reasonable as he developed from an average everyday player to the fifth most valuable shortstop in the majors this season. Crawford’s defense didn’t return to form, as his -8 OAA still placed him in the bottom five among qualified shortstops this year. The 28-year-old’s bat, on the other hand, saw some major improvements.
Perhaps most obvious among the improvements to Crawford’s offensive output this season is his walk rate. While Crawford has generally been better than average at drawing free passes in his career, he took that to another level in 2023. Crawford’s staggering 14.7% walk rate this season was the fourth-best figure among qualified major leaguers, trailing only Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, and Shohei Ohtani while finishing just ahead of Max Muncy and Bryce Harper.
That sort of elite company in terms of plate discipline is made all the more impressive when you consider Crawford’s strikeout rate. While the 19.6% figure was actually his highest since 2019, only Soto struck out less often in 2023 among the aforementioned group of five hitters surrounding Crawford. Indeed, Crawford and Soto are two of just seven hitters in the majors this season with strikeout rates below 20% and walk rates above 12%, joined by the likes of Mookie Betts, Adley Rutschman, and Alex Bregman.
In addition to top-tier plate discipline, Crawford improved his power output significantly in 2023. While he didn’t become an elite or even average slugger at the plate, his power numbers still saw considerable improvements across the board relative to last year. His barrel rate more than doubled to 4.8%, he added more than three mph to his average exit velocity, and his hard-hit rate jumped from the fifth percentile among qualified hitters in 2022 to the 21st percentile in 2023, an impressive feat over the course of just one season.
Put together, Crawford’s improvements at the plate saw him slash an impressive .266/.380/.438 with a wRC+ of 134, a 31-point increase from his roughly-league average 2022. Crawford slugged 19 home runs, up from last season’s six, to raise his ISO from .093 last year (sixth-worst among 130 qualified regulars) to .172 (72nd among 133 qualified regulars). By measure of wRC+, Crawford went from being the 14th-best offensive shortstop in 2022 to being this year’s second-best, trailing only Corey Seager.
The Mariners would still do well to improve at the keystone headed into 2024; the keys to the position figure to be handed over to Josh Rojas (78 wRC+) and Jose Caballero (96 wRC+) without any external additions. With that being said, the club’s position up the middle has substantially improved relative to where they were this time last year, as Crawford has provided Seattle with an impact player to slot into their middle infield mix while the Mariners prepare for 2024 with a return to the postseason on their minds.
“scuffled” and “struggled” are two different words that do not mean the same thing and are not interchangeable — just sayin’
verb
past tense: scuffled; past participle: scuffled
1.
engage in a short, confused fight or struggle at close quarters.
Way to be confidently incorrect
They are not synonyms.
verb
past tense: scuffled; past participle: scuffled
1.
engage in a short, confused fight or struggle at close quarters.
Agreed, nor does swiffer.
Newpony is right. These are synonyms. I mean for the love of intelligence, the definition of scuffled actually includes the word “struggle”. This is a fantastic example of confidently wrong.
errabundi saepe, semper certi
(often wrong, but always certain)
Punching and poking both involve touching someone. Are they the same thing? Don’t congratulate yourself for your superior intelligence. You’re insisting on eliminating the distinction between two different and useful words.
Indubitably!
A lot of good it did them. Maybe Crawford can host the team for the AL wildcard, pot luck watch party.
It did a lot of good in the sense that he gave the M’s a chance to make the playoffs. I would rather having the 2023 version of J.P. than the 2022 one going into next season.
I bet you’re fun to hang with.
Crawford peaked. If DiPoto is ever going to trade him, now is the time
^^^Fwiw, that only works if the Mariners have a backup plan. If their next best guy was in Everett last year, then never mind
Age 28 season is usually a peak season for most players. Parlay that season in a trade would be a wise move. But I think that all depends on return and who’s gonna play SS moving forward. The bigger question might be what’s the competition window look like for the Mariners?
Crawford worked his tail off at driveline last offseason and came back a different player. You might be right that this will go down as his best season but I dont think we should expect him to go back to the player he was before, either. JP is the heart of this team, trading him would be a pretty tough to swallow.
I don’t think it would be a good idea to move J.P. As good vibes only mentioned, he worked hard at driveline last offseason, which paid dividends, and he’s going back to driveline even sooner this offseason (and taking Ty France with him).
In this given scenario, I don’t think it makes sense for a win-now team to subtract from their talent pool. There’s no surplus at the position.
Bizzy,
What makes you think he’s peaked?
If he gets traded, that screws with the clubhouse big time.
Forward. The Mariners just need to concentrate on improving if possible, but mainly they need to avoid going backward in any dealings they make.
Crawford broke out solid above most people’s expectations. And Raleigh emerged even more as a huge asset.
This was a good season as baseball seasons go, and I have no big criticisms.
I will say it was a tad disappointing in terms of Julio’s performance. But he will probably pick it up as we go forward.
Go Mariners!
Julio had a slow last 10 games or so, but was mostly a good player for the M’s. The biggest disappointments were 1b France, 2b Wong and OF Kelenic, not to mention Robby Ray needing surgery.
I agree that France, Wong and Kelenic were big disappointments.
But I think Julio’s slump at the end is what cost the team a spot in the playoffs.
He was supposed to be our big gun.
One more hit at the right time and we would still be playing in October.
Julio has a lot of work to do in the clutch moments, honing his approach and discipline during the pivotal moments of the game. And I think one of the fatal flaws of this ‘23 team is propping him up as the one to carry the offense. He is a 22 year old kid. You could absolutely see the moments getting to big for him over this past week. He has all the tools to be a hall of famer, but he’s not going to carry the offense into the promise land by himself. Right now, he needs more help around him.
Absolutely.
That is exactly how it seemed to me.
I do expect that Julio will resume growing again next season.
Maturity. I do think he will mature.
Julio all year was chasing pitches out of the zone, with 2 strikes on him. Mostly sweeper type pitches.
And with runners on base late in the game; seemed like that happened alot
France folded this year.. Need upgrade at first base STAT!
Julio massively under preformed expectations most of the season. His Apr-Jun and September were disappointing, His Jul was good and his Aug was from another planet. Aug is the reason why his season line looks so good. Other than Kelenic’s run-in with the water cooler, he was actually better than expected going into the season; certainly not a disappointment. Biggest disappointments were France, Suarez, Hernandez, Dipoto (for what he did to the bullpen at the deadline) and the badly timed sputtering of the rotation and Munoz in September.
Take April out of Kelenics numbers and his performance wasn’t all that different from the prior two years.
Sure, you can take out his best month and say how bad he was, but you can also take out his worst month (June) and see how it was just one bad month. Most players have a bad month.
I think the consensus is that Jarred did some nice things this year and you can soundly argue that he “took a step forward.” Beyond that, he still has to prove himself as an everyday major leaguer.
I agree with you on Kelenic. He had a great first month. where he hit for a good average with some power. His June was horrible. His average revived a bit after that, but his power did not. I believe he hit 11 home runs and 7 of them were in April. I also don’t like players who break their foot kicking beverage coolers. Trade him! Also, Ty France’s numbers were not consistent with what a first baseman should produce.
Kelenic went final 30+ games without HR. Quite a power drought.
Julio was wildly inconsistent this season, check his game log and splits. He wouldn’t have made the all-star game if it didn’t take place in Seattle. His first half was average.
Kelenic wasn’t a disappointment, whatsoever. Geno’s complete lack of power was a much bigger negative factor than whatever you’re criticizing Kelenic for.
Meh, Julio carried the team on his back for about 6 weeks prior to the final two weeks.
Which was great, but more important going forward is that he plays up to his ability for a greater number of games. I’d rather he be consistently solid over an entire season rather than scorching hot for 6 weeks, bad for a month, and below his talent level for another month.
Great read. Compare his salary to all the other SS’s in the top 10 WAR. His contract is extremely valuable to the success of this team. He is a massive bargain.
Was not a Crawford believer, but must say I was wrong this year! Looks like a solid leadoff guy next season, though moving him to 2B could help his defense.
He is a very good, although very flawed shortstop. For example, he is one of the best I’ve seen for the Mariners going to HIS left, off balance dives and tosses, etc.
Going to his right, aka the 6 hole; he seems to lack the range you naturally assume he would have will his high skill set. It’s just really not there. It’s too slow for the tough deep jumping plays. He doesn’t really make those.
I still love the guy as a short stop right now, he’s above league average and will make the highlight reel. But he very well may end up being a better fit at 2nd.
Agree. I noticed the range to one side vs the other as well. Long term he probably needs to move off SS but not just yet. And he seems to be the only guy on the team that understands how to take a competitive major league AB and control the zone.
Where do the M’s improve. As mention they are getting better, no they don’t have an allstar lineup like Houston or Texas maybe the focus should be on continuing better pitching which seems to be there strength, anyway as for positional players the infield, and outfield are good, less than elite so this might be a slower progression of improvement where would you start with?
Left side of the Infield, OF corners, 3B
where would you start with?
========================
Teoscar is leaving.
Maybe France can be replaced.
Their Py W/L was pretty good, so they might not need that much.
LF or RF, 1B, 2B, 3B, DH, C#2, 2x RPs and depending on how you acquire some of those pieces, maybe another SP. Plenty of holes including 3 massive ones at 2B, LF/RF, and DH.
Honestly man, we just need bats. We need upgrades. Wherever we can make an impactful upgrade; that’s what we should do. I see it less of a filling out the roster thing and more of a we need to shake up the middle of the order for Julio JP and Cal.
They need to add corner OF/DH bats. It probably makes sense to extend a QO to Teo, given the thin free agent market. Possible he could accept but sure if the M’s would want to make him a longer term offer.
Not sure how I feel about Teo. Keeping him feels like a neutral move that could prove to be successful. He and Julio are extremely close, he seems beloved among the locker room. But it’s hard to have so many strikeouts in one lineup. Solid as hell, no hate on Teo but we’re talking about building a championship team.
Not many free agent impact bats outside of Ohtani. Teo may be one of the best options available short of the trade market.
Teo is a tough one for me too. Depends on the cost. Hard to say whether he will be any kind of bargain given how bad this FA class is.
ROTFLMAO! Here is what this article said:
“Seattle was widely viewed as a potential landing spot for one of the 2022-23 free agent class’s marquee shortstops”
Here is what McDonald’s article said:
“Incumbent shortstop J.P. Crawford had been told he was going to stay at that position for the club, regardless of what the rumors said.”
So Seattle shot down the rumors that the writers invented, and now the writers are commenting on their own rumors?
I seriously doubt you have ever rolled on the floor and giggled about anything, let alone emphasized the perceived hilarity with capital letters.
Withnail & I. The very English.
In 2nd place ‘The Castle’ available on You Tube & still rated as Australia’s favourite film 30 years after production…
Comedy like baseball is in the eye of the beholder…
I’ve had a few moments where I couldn’t help from smiling. This was one of those moments. The simultaneously referenced an article with management stating that JP was staying at SS, and writing that Seattle was widely seen as a landing place for a SS.
That, at a minimum, should elicit a few guffaws.
The idea of a writer admitting (even a logical error) seems a distance past…
So much – even in a so called inner sanctum – seems to be guesswork.
As a Phillies fan am glad to see how Crawford has blossomed. Classic case of a change of scenery guy working out. Just wasn’t going to happen in Philly.
I gotta admit I was not happy with us just “sticking” with JP at start of 2023 season. But M’s brass saw something we all didn’t see. He truly dedicated his time at DriveLine and the results were evident. U could literally tell his swing at plate was legit faster every at bat. He’s become the true sparkplug and leader of this team. Might want to move him to 2B but he’s Def found a permanent home in Seattle. Now go out and get him a big time double play mate to prove to fans you care about 2024. I also think about upgrading 3b with eugenio being permanent DH. An OBP conscience RF and a dominant RP lefty that can be out 7th inning guy. Mariners make those moves, I’m estatic.
Why move Geno off 3B? A large part of his blue is defensive.
*Value. Ugh, autocorrect.
Nice “breakout” for Crawford. Let’s see if it’s sustainable.
Also, not sure I’d call Kelenic a “quality” regular. After a blistering hot April, he slashed an anemic .235/.314/.356 over the final five months. Like Crawford, perhaps he’ll have his own similar true breakout in 2024.
The drive line experience seemed to improve Crawford exponentially. If only every player had that written into their contract.
The excessive strick out rate was our down fall Julio, Geno, Teo, Cal, France and Kelnic all had high rates. They were solid on defense but failed to put the ball in play.
Many will strike out often but a 10% improvement will score more runs.
This team has great pitching, consider Ray a #3 starter and we should trade for quality depth
Moore, Cabby, Hags, are way below average.
Rojas and Canzone could be good role players, Murphy needs health.
Bull pen pitched well above average but could use a dedicated closer, we lost to many close games due to lack of clutch hitting or blown saves
Everybody does but we were well below average in save percentage and hitting with runners in scoring position
Driveline might help the existing players improve the later but if Munoz, whose stuff is electric, can’t improve his closer mentality we will need someone like Sewald who can close with consistency.
Keep Service for another year and see if Robbie Ray can’t be 14-8 to make up the few games we missed the playoffs
Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert and Ray are formidable as any starting pitcher staff in MLB
Miller and Woo are both impressive rookies. Marco is just below average but sufficient
We need 6-7 starters in case of injury.
This year was more expectation and we couldn’t score enough in scoring positions, we got behind in to many games and failed to produce in clutch as we did the year before
Disappointing but not catastrophic.
Ownership sadly will not spend for the big free agents, only Ohtani and Bellinger are obvious fits.
Love the vibe and defense of Geno but he hurt us offensively, he drove in runs but hit .232
Teo and Julio had great July and August but both slumped miserably in September.
France plays a good first base buy hitting .250 with 11 HR is not good enough for his past production
Raleigh gave us reliable catching with very good pop at plate, he’s not a high average batter but better than 80% production at his position
Crawford should hit second in my opinion. He’s a patient hitter and if Julio gets on base he could steal more often
Julio should be regarded as Ronald Acuna, power, speed, excellent defense, his first two years hitting at .280 could easily improve with better plate discipline. He swings at to many pitches out of the strike zone, and over swings at balls in the zone, if driveline improves this then he could be MVP player
He’s strong enough to hits HR’s without over swinging
I don’t expect any high priced FA to sign with M’s
But even a 10% improvement of offensive strike out could increase run scoring in close games
Give Teo a 1 year offer, send the above wiffers to DRIVELINE, and perhaps spends and $$$$ to sign Hader as free agent. He will want 15-20 million a year but for the 3 year window he could be reliable
Put Munoz, Brash, Topa as 7-8 innings
Both our lefties (Spier/Saucedo) were above average
Thornton, Campbell, were surprisingly effective but not pressure tested
Prelander Berroa might be very productive next year
Bull pen is great shape, could be best with Hader closing games
Ownership adding money to sign him is manageable
Mariners needs only slight improvements to win 5-10 games
This team should win 95 games minimum next year
Everything but Hader. He’s Eric Bedard all over again.
Hader being Erik Bedard doesn’t really pass the smell test. Hader’s a fairly reliable reliever with a completely different arsenal.
The only commonality is the left handedness and the fact that the O’s drafted both.
Yes, to get Hader we must give up our top prospect who will turn into an All-Star centerfielder who can manage the position for multiple years, a stud left hander out of the bullpen and a decent starting pitching prospect. I don’t see how Hader could be compared to Bedard, at all.
Just to argue a little bit, imagine if they had signed one of the other shortstops, and moved Crawford to 2nd. If he still had the same year the Mariners would still be playing.
Imagine if they’d signed Carlos Correa, they’d be in worse shape than they are now. I thought they should have approached San Diego last off-season about acquiring Ha Seong Kim to play 2b. During the off-season he seemed like a man without a position, but that was before this past season, where he showed he’s an outstanding STARTING level player.
Driveline did wonders for Crawford and he had a monster season, no question.
But nobody should see that as an excuse for the lack of free agent interest.
And I’m not just talking about the big four short stops. It’s the fact that they didn’t get any significant free agents.
It didn’t matter if JP played SS or 2B. It didn’t matter if they focused on outfielders or a DH. They didn’t do anything and we’re discussing this now rather than a postseason matchup. as a result.
I’m not interested in debating this any further. If you disagree, that’s fine, but the reality is that better players out the gate likely would have changed Seattle’s fate.
Hopefully lessons were learned.
Jeter-elite SS.
Ripken-elite SS.
A-Rod-elite SS.
Spare me the superlatives inflated by WAR; JP is NOT an “elite” SS. Not even close.
I’m as big a JP fan as anybody and I agree that the e word is a bit too much for a .260 not even 20 home run guy with slightly above average d.
But he’s certainly arrived as a very good, valuable every day player. And the kind of clubhouse personality every skipper wants.
AND, perhaps has more upside to come at the plate.
Who would have been an elite 2B if they added another SS in FA. Then they would have made the playoffs. Instead they will be at home in October.
I was disappointed Castillo pitched poorly when the chips were down. Twice at least. Always felt he’s a terrific pitcher. Ace. But a true Ace I’m not sure now.
Mr. Stanton, it’s time to spend the money you said you’d spend. Sign Ohtani, at any price. You don’t need him as a starter in 2024, so you’re okay. Sign Matt Chapman. Sign Whit Merrifield, if he wants to get back to a state with no income tax. And then give Justin and Jerry the go-ahead to trade for guys that don’t strike out and hit well in the cold (April, May, and June have been atrocious for years now, except for the fluke 13-2 year).Then sign local boy Blake Snell, because you’re likely going to have to trade Woo or Miller. Or both, with Ray coming back (maybe).
Spend now or hear more wrath and get more calls to sell the team.
Agreed that they need to be all-in on Ohtani. And add another bay even beyond just him. Pitching staff looks to already be in pretty good shape for next season.
I am so happy about the season JP had. I admit I was on his tail in the past. But what do I expect next year? It would be surprising that the Mariners trade him after all the hard work he has done. The Mariner’s leadership starting from the Manager on up is pathetic.
Scott Servais screw the team over in quite a few games this year by mismanaging the pitching staff. The only reason he is here is because he is friends with Jerry Dipoto. If you don’t believe me look at the interview when Dipoto hired him, he mentions it himself.
The other issue is That Jerry Dipoto did nothing to help this team at the trade deadline. If anything he hurt it by trading away Paul Sewald. I would imagine if we would have kept Sewald that would have been maybe 5-7 wins right there in games we lost. Those wins would have put the Mariners in the playoffs + the wins we could have had if not for Servais mismanaging the pitching staff = maybe we could have won the division.
So that brings us to the Ownership. Are they willing to pay for quality players? We haven’t seen that yet. Maybe it is just Jerry “bargain hunter” Dipoto. Jerry likes bargains. He likes the risks of what if. An example is Kolten Wong. He was hoping that Kolten would return to his form two years back. He does this all the time, bargain hunting. I think he does this because I actually like to refer to him as Jerry “Next Year” Dipoto. Why do I say that? Because at the end of the season, he says next, and the season after that next year. The problem is that Mariner fans are so enamored by him they don’t see this.
The bench was a joke this year. How many players were batting under .200? It is a joke, nobody to come off the bench that can offensively help you. They may provide defensively capabilities in the late innings but that does no good inserting them in when you are already behind. Even key players struggled. I would say that JP Crawford by far was the most consistent. Julio was up and down so much I thought he was a yo-yo. Eugenio Suarez was dismal although I will not throw away 90 RBIs. Teo was a yo-yo…etc.
Too many fans think Luis Castillo is an ace. No he is not! He will throw a gem, then next game be okay, and the next he will be horrendous. It is always being pointed out he has one of the best Whips, what good does a good whip do when you can’t get a win? Does anybody realize lifetime he is 62 wins and 64 losses?
Well, I will end this long post by saying the Mariners have a lot of work to do. But I won’t be surprised if they trade Cal Raleigh for calling the ownership out.
This guy isn’t a trade candidate and is on an extension. There’s no reason this transactions website should be writing such a player-friendly puff piece about him. There is nothing novel here. It’s just some writer who copy-pasted stuff from his Baseball-Reference page.
Stop with this nonsense.