Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 13 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.
The projections:
Angels (10)
- Griffin Canning (4.075): $2.5MM
- Brett Phillips (4.060): $1.4MM
- Luis Rengifo (4.043): $4.2MM
- Jaime Barria (4.035): $1.5MM
- Chad Wallach (4.018): $1.1MM
- Taylor Ward (3.164): $4.5MM
- Patrick Sandoval (3.149): $5MM
- Jared Walsh (3.114): $2.7MM
- Jose Suarez (3.084): $1.1MM
- Jose Quijada (3.046): $1MM
Astros (7)
- Framber Valdez (4.163): $12.1MM
- Kyle Tucker (4.079): $12.6MM
- Jose Urquidy (4.049): $3.5MM
- Mauricio Dubon (3.162): $3.1MM
- Luis Garcia (3.083): $2.1MM
- Bryan Abreu (3.022): $2MM
- Chas McCormick (3.000): $3.1MM
Athletics (6)
- Austin Pruitt (5.034): $1.2MM
- Sean Newcomb (4.113): $1MM
- Paul Blackburn (4.018): $3.2MM
- Carlos Perez (3.167): $1.2MM
- Seth Brown (3.104): $2.4MM
- James Kaprielian (2.167): $1.5MM
Blue Jays (13)
- Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2MM
- Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM
- Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM
- Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM
- Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM
- Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM
- Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM
- Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM
- Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM
- Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM
- Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM
- Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K
Braves (13)
- A.J. Minter (5.154): $6.5MM
- Max Fried (5.148): $14.4MM
- Yonny Chirinos (5.114): $2MM
- Michael Soroka (5.009): $3MM
- Nick Anderson (4.153): $1.6MM
- Nicky Lopez (4.139): $3.9MM
- Kolby Allard (3.162): $1MM
- Ben Heller (3.102): $900K
- Sam Hilliard (3.094): $1.1MM
- Michael Tonkin (3.074): $1MM
- Kyle Wright (3.062): $1.4MM
- Andrew Velazquez (3.033): $740K
- Huascar Ynoa (3.011): $1MM
Brewers (12)
- Brandon Woodruff (5.161): $11.6MM
- Willy Adames (5.105): $12.4MM
- Corbin Burnes (5.049): $15.1MM
- Adrian Houser (5.010): $5.6MM
- Rowdy Tellez (5.004): $5.9MM
- Eric Lauer (4.111): $5.2MM
- Hoby Milner (4.068): $1.7MM
- Devin Williams (4.056): $6.5MM
- Tyrone Taylor (3.093): $1.7MM
- Bryse Wilson (3.036): $1.3MM
- Joel Payamps (3.027): $1.7MM
- Abraham Toro (3.011): $1.3MM
Cardinals (10)
- Jacob Barnes (5.112): $1MM
- Tyler O’Neill (5.059): $5.5MM
- Dakota Hudson (4.156): $3.7MM
- Tommy Edman (4.114): $6.5MM
- Ryan Helsley (4.105): $3MM
- Andrew Knizner (4.021): $2MM
- Dylan Carlson (3.104): $1.8MM
- Jake Woodford (3.048): $1.1MM
- JoJo Romero (3.045): $900K
- John King (2.148): $1.0MM
Cubs (9)
- Codi Heuer (4.000): $785K
- Nick Madrigal (3.163): $1.9MM
- Mike Tauchman (3.143): $2MM
- Nick Burdi (3.140): $800K
- Julian Merryweather (3.109): $1.3MM
- Patrick Wisdom (3.058): $2.6MM
- Adbert Alzolay (3.050): $2.5MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (3.031): $1.6MM
- Justin Steele (2.143): $4.1MM
Diamondbacks (8)
- Christian Walker (5.124): $12.7MM
- Paul Sewald (5.072): $7.3MM
- Austin Adams (4.150): $1.1MM
- Zac Gallen (4.100): $10.9MM
- Ryan Thompson (3.095): $1.3MM
- Kyle Lewis (3.067): $1.61MM
- Kevin Ginkel (3.032): $1.4MM
- Joe Mantiply (3.029): $1MM
Dodgers (13)
- Walker Buehler (5.168): $8.03MM
- Ryan Yarbrough (5.117): $3.8MM
- Caleb Ferguson (5.093): $2.3MM
- Yency Almonte (4.143): $1.9MM
- Will Smith (4.090): $9.3MM
- Dustin May (4.059): $2.4MM
- Brusdar Graterol (3.167): $2.5MM
- Wander Suero (3.144): $900K
- Evan Phillips (3.136): $3.4MM
- Gavin Lux (3.114): $1.1MM
- J.P. Feyereisen (3.108): $1MM
- Alex Vesia (3.078): $1.2MM
- Victor Gonzalez (3.058): $1MM
Giants (6)
- Austin Slater (5.147): $3.6MM
- J.D. Davis (5.137): $6.8MM
- Mike Yastrzemski (4.128): $7.3MM
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (4.035): $3.3MM
- Tyler Rogers (4.034): $3.2MM
- Thairo Estrada (3.169): $4.8MM
Guardians (10)
- Shane Bieber (5.097): $12.2MM
- Cam Gallagher (5.073): $1.3MM
- Ramon Laureano (4.165): $4.7MM
- Cal Quantrill (4.132): $6.6MM
- Josh Naylor (4.127): $7.2MM
- James Karinchak (3.099): $1.9MM
- Triston McKenzie (3.074): $1.8MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (3.015): $1.2MM
- Sam Hentges (2.157): $1.1MM
- Nick Sandlin (2.157): $1.1MM
Marlins (13)
- Jacob Stallings (5.149): $3.6MM
- Tanner Scott (5.059): $5.8MM
- Garrett Hampson (5.010): $1.3MM
- Luis Arraez (4.121): $10.8MM
- JT Chargois (4.101): $1.2MM
- Jesus Luzardo (3.165): $5.9MM
- A.J. Puk (3.124): $1.8MM
- Steven Okert (3.109): $1.2MM
- Trevor Rogers (3.094): $1.5MM
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3.075): $2.8MM
- Jonathan Davis (3.035): $800K
- Anthony Bender (2.153): $900K
- Jesus Sanchez (2.118): $2MM
Mariners (8)
- Ty France (4.089): $7.2MM
- Luis Torrens (3.155): $1.3MM
- Trent Thornton (3.148): $1.4MM
- Josh Rojas (3.126): $3.5MM
- Sam Haggerty (3.044): $800K
- Justin Topa (3.044): $1.5MM
- Mike Ford (3.008): $1.5MM
- Logan Gilbert (2.144): $4.9MM
Mets (17)
- Daniel Vogelbach (5.138): $2.6MM
- Trevor Gott (5.057): $2MM
- Elieser Hernandez (5.044): $1.6MM
- Drew Smith (5.034): $2.3MM
- Pete Alonso (5.000): $22MM
- Luis Guillorme (4.159): $1.7MM
- Tim Locastro (4.122): $1.6MM
- Joey Lucchesi (4.112): $2MM
- Sam Coonrod (4.078): $900K
- Jeff Brigham (3.142): $1.1MM
- John Curtiss (3.137): $1MM
- Michael Perez (3.095): $800K
- David Peterson (3.089): $2MM
- Danny Mendick (3.058): $1.1MM
- Rafael Ortega (3.035): $1.4MM
- DJ Stewart (2.168): $1.5MM
- Phil Bickford (2.134): $1.2MM
Nationals (8)
- Dominic Smith (5.081): $4.3MM
- Victor Robles (5.033): $2.7MM
- Tanner Rainey (4.127): $1.5MM
- Michael Chavis (4.089): $1.2MM
- Hunter Harvey (4.047): $2.2MM
- Lane Thomas (4.014): $7MM
- Kyle Finnegan (4.000): $5.1MM
- Luis Garcia (2.142): $2.4MM
Orioles (16)
- Anthony Santander (5.162): $12.7MM
- Danny Coulombe (5.008): $2.2MM
- John Means (5.007): $5.93MM
- Ryan O’Hearn (4.170): $3MM
- Cedric Mullins (4.078): $6.4MM
- Austin Hays (4.057): $6.1MM
- Dillon Tate (4.048): $1.5MM
- Jorge Mateo (4.000): $2.9MM
- Ryan Mountcastle (3.105): $4.2MM
- Cionel Perez (3.085): $1.3MM
- Cole Irvin (3.083): $1.8MM
- Keegan Akin (3.079): $800K
- Jacob Webb (3.046): $1.2MM
- Ramon Urias (3.025): $2MM
- Tyler Wells (2.132): $2.3MM
- Ryan McKenna (2.123): $740K
Padres (6)
- Juan Soto (5.134): $33MM
- Tim Hill (5.112): $2.4MM
- Scott Barlow (5.030): $7.1MM
- Trent Grisham (4.060): $4.9MM
- Austin Nola (4.045): $2.35MM
- Adrian Morejon (3.140): $900K
Phillies (8)
- Jeff Hoffman (5.084): $2.1MM
- Ranger Suarez (4.112): $4.7MM
- Gregory Soto (4.102): $4.9MM
- Jake Cave (4.071): $1.4MM
- Edmundo Sosa (3.140): $1.7MM
- Dylan Covey (3.138): $1MM
- Garrett Stubbs (3.120): $900K
- Alec Bohm (3.106): $4.3MM
Pirates (6)
- Ryan Borucki (5.006): $1.3MM
- Miguel Andujar (4.053): $2.2MM
- Mitch Keller (4.026): $6MM
- JT Brubaker (4.000): $2.28MM
- David Bednar (3.076): $4.7MM
- Connor Joe (2.136): $2MM
Rangers (10)
- Matt Bush (5.058): $2.1MM
- Brett Martin (4.151): $1.28MM
- Nathaniel Lowe (3.145): $8.8MM
- Jonathan Hernandez (3.131): $1.3MM
- Jonah Heim (3.097): $3.6MM
- Adolis Garcia (3.095): $6.6MM
- Dane Dunning (3.083): $3.4MM
- Brock Burke (3.065): $1.1MM
- Josh Sborz (3.055): $900K
- Leody Taveras (2.124): $2.4MM
Rays (16)
- Raimel Tapia (5.144): $2.4MM
- Shawn Armstrong (5.113): $1.8MM
- Andrew Kittredge (5.070): $2.3MM
- Jalen Beeks (5.003): $1.8MM
- Harold Ramirez (4.124): $4.4MM
- Colin Poche (4.114): $2.1MM
- Aaron Civale (4.058): $4.6MM
- Zack Littell (4.043): $1.7MM
- Christian Bethancourt (4.038): $2.3MM
- Cole Sulser (3.157): $900K
- Jason Adam (3.132): $3MM
- Randy Arozarena (3.129): $9MM
- Drew Rasmussen (3.111): $2.2MM
- Isaac Paredes (2.160): $3.2MM
- Shane McClanahan (2.158): $3.6MM
- Josh Fleming (2.144): $1MM
Red Sox (5)
- Nick Pivetta (5.166): $6.9MM
- Alex Verdugo (5.078): $9.2MM
- Luis Urias (4.098): $4.7MM
- Reese McGuire (4.027): $1.7MM
- John Schreiber (3.027): $1.3MM
Reds (10)
- Lucas Sims (5.014): $2.8MM
- Nick Senzel (4.150): $3MM
- Derek Law (4.081): $1.4MM
- Justin Dunn (4.020): $900K
- Tejay Antone (4.000): $900K
- Alex Young (3.143): $1.7MM
- Jake Fraley (3.097): $2.2MM
- Tyler Stephenson (3.056): $2.9MM
- Jonathan India (3.000): $3.7MM
- Vladimir Gutierrez (2.127): $1MM
Rockies (7)
- Harold Castro (4.141): $1.8MM
- Austin Gomber (4.111): $3.3MM
- Brendan Rodgers (4.075): $3.3MM
- Ty Blach (3.135): $1.8MM
- Peter Lambert (3.128): $1.2MM
- Austin Wynns (3.090): $1MM
- Lucas Gilbreath (2.148): $800K
Royals (8)
- Taylor Clarke (4.120): $2.2MM
- Josh Taylor (4.118): $1.3MM
- Josh Staumont (4.071): $1.2MM
- Taylor Hearn (3.165): $1.7MM
- Brady Singer (3.156): $5.1MM
- Kris Bubic (3.135): $2.4MM
- Edward Olivares (3.049): $1.8MM
- Carlos Hernandez (2.145): $1.3MM
Tigers (8)
- Austin Meadows (5.074): $4.3MM
- Spencer Turnbull (4.167): $2.4MM
- Tyler Alexander (4.058): $2MM
- Trey Wingenter (4.017): $1.1MM
- Tarik Skubal (3.114): $2.6MM
- Casey Mize (3.111): $1.2MM
- Jake Rogers (3.040): $2MM
- Akil Baddoo (2.119): $1.7MM
Twins (9)
- Caleb Thielbar (5.131): $3MM
- Kyle Farmer (5.129): $6.6MM
- Jordan Luplow (5.025): $1.6MM
- Willi Castro (4.017): $3.2MM
- Jorge Alcala (4.014): $1MM
- Ryan Jeffers (3.089): $2.3MM
- Jose De Leon (3.062): $740K
- Alex Kirilloff (2.141): $1.7MM
- Nick Gordon (2.136): $1MM
White Sox (8)
- Clint Frazier (4.092): $900K
- Dylan Cease (4.089): $8.8MM
- Michael Kopech (4.041): $3.6MM
- Trayce Thompson (4.010): $1.7MM
- Matt Foster (3.093): $740K
- Touki Toussaint (3.071): $1.7MM
- Garrett Crochet (3.028): $900K
- Andrew Vaughn (3.000): $3.7MM
Yankees (17)
- Lou Trivino (5.163): $4.1MM
- Gleyber Torres (5.162): $15.3MM
- Clay Holmes (5.031): $6MM
- Jonathan Loaisiga (5.022): $2.5MM
- Kyle Higashioka (5.005): $2.3MM
- Franchy Cordero (4.160): $1.6MM
- Domingo German (4.142): $4.4MM
- Nestor Cortes (4.094): $3.9MM
- Jose Trevino (4.063): $2.7MM
- Matt Bowman (4.043): $1MM
- Michael King (4.004): $2.6MM
- Ryan Weber (3.167): $900K
- Billy McKinney (3.087): $1.2MM
- Jake Bauers (3.084): $1.7MM
- Jimmy Cordero (3.061): $900K
- Clarke Schmidt (2.148): $2.6MM
- Albert Abreu (2.118): $900K
Guerrero will be the next Bellinger, and Soto would be way overpaid for an arb player (good for a free agent, though). The Framber and Tucker raises seem too high relative to others here and history (not an expert, but those seem like outliers imo vs last season’s raises and performance).
Now, I wonder which teams can loot Oakland for their arbitration-eligible players.
I don’t think Guerrero Jr is a non-tender candidate this off-season but if he doesn’t perform well next year then it could be something to look at next offseason
Hard to believe that it has gotten to that.
I mean looking at the projected salary for Guerrero Jr this year maybe Toronto needs to think about a potential non-tender or trade
You guys are completely ridiculous to suggest Vlad is getting non-tendered. Killed any credibility you have to talk about this stuff. Guys put up a 117 ops+ with 26 and 94. Career OPS of almost .850. While his numbers are “down” he’s still a VERY successful player. Oh, and he’s 24. So stupid.
I’m not saying that will happen this year, but since arb raises are positive, if he has a .500 OPS season, it’s a possibility. I get that Bellinger struggled for a longer period of time, but he is the only guy in the same ballpark. I was shocked Bellinger was non-tendered, tbh.
Bellinger was non-tendered in his final year, not the 2nd to last, but I do see that being a possibility.
Definitely a trade candidate though.
Blue jays need to buy low and lock him up long term. Teach him how to play 1st
Buy low? This is who Vlad is. He’s a serviceable first baseman, not a perennial MVP candidate.
The Jays aren’t a cheap team being crushed by his salary, but they certainly can’t rely on him to be a 3 hitter. Time to move on.
Time to move on?? Serviceable? I swear, some of the dumbest people on the planet come here and just throw out some of the dumbest comments you’ll ever hear.
This Jays roster cannot compete with the Braves or Phillies in a world series, and it will never get there with the current Orioles, Astros, and Rangers lineups in the way. Therefore they need to trade everything of value right now. Not next year or the year after.
I believe you are missing Ryan Brasier as being arb eligible for the Dodgers. I don’t think he crossed 6 years of service time in 2023 since he was not in the big leagues for over a month between being released and on a minor league deal.
I could be wrong and I’m not for sure but I still think he qualifies for free agency this off-season since he went into this year with 5 years of service time
Raimel Tapia entered this season with 5+ years of service and they still have him as arbitration eligible with the Rays. He is in a similar situation where he was released by the Red Sox and later the Brewers which resulted in him not getting a full 172 days of service.
You’re right I didn’t recognize that. I wasn’t for sure how it worked.
No worries! It is all a bit confusing and complicated.
Brasier will be a free agent this offseason. He entered this season with five years and 109 days of service. A player gets to a full service year at 172 days, even if that doesn’t all come within the same season. So Brasier only needed 63 days on an MLB roster this year to get to six years. Had he entered 2023 at exactly five years of service, he would’ve fallen short as you mentioned.
That’s the distinction with Tapia. He entered the season at five years and 20 days and was only on major league rosters for 124 days this year, so he came up a little short (although he’ll likely be non-tendered anyways).
Tapia needed 152 days of service to reach 6 years, and he only got around 120 days. Without looking at it more in depth – something like 70 with BOS, 40 with MIL, and 10 with TB.
Yeah my bad. For some reason I had Brasier at 5.003 service instead of 5.109.
It’s all good! I get confused with it sometimes but I enjoy this stuff
@CBA: A year of service is 172 days, so he only needed 63 days to reach 6 years. He crushed that total this year, got 46 days with BOS and another 100 plus with LAD.
Max Fried lost in on a ton of money by missing a lot of this season I figured he would have been around 20 million
I think he can make up for it in the playoffs
That Soto projection….yeah he’s getting traded lol
Maybe at the TDL if the wheels fall off for my Pads…
Would you rather have Soto
Or young cost controlled players to plug and play immediately plus whatever 30-33 mill buys the Padres for 2024.
I’d rather have the young pieces and whatever 30-33mill buys
Padres made a mistake not trading Hader Snell Lugo etc at the deadline.
Hopefully they don’t make the mistake of thinking they’ll compete while losing Snell Hader Lugo and taking on less salary. Theyve got holes to fill. As much as Soto would be awesome. Having pitching not giving up runs in the rotation and pen would be even better for 2024.
Padres need a more balanced lineup. Plus getting a better defensive OF wouldn’t be the worst thing.
No – Keep in mind that Snell/Hader also makes about 30 mil available.
Non-Tender of Hill, Grish, Barlow, Nola – another 17 mil per the recent estimates.
Pomeranz expires – 12 mil
There is money available in Seidler pockets.
NoSubs- depends on the youngsters, I guess? As is, the Pads that matter (Seidler & AJ, not Acee’s BS) have stated they’re still in full contention mode. That means Soto will stay a Pad for ’24 (and beyond if an extension becomes formalized). No extension before the TDL and a poor W/L record would mean Soto “should be” available to a contender. We are still projecting and presuming alot, but that’s Occam’s razor to me.
And money you listed goes to a kim extension. So that doesn’t really do anything except allow them to extend Kim at 20-25 mill a year.
Hader Snell dfa Grisham Hill Barlow means you gotta spwnd $$ to replace them. In house options are limited. Suarez going to closer means replace suarez in setup roll.
Padres aren’t cutting costs by guys leaving. Its reassigning money. And if they’re gonna penny pinch on replacements they should trade Soto cause it’ll be a wasted year anyways.
I gave you 59 mil and you turn it into a 20-25 mil Kim extension?
1. Extending Kim is ok with me.
2. What about the other 34-39 mil?
You gave me 59 mill for a kim extension at 20-25 mill leaving 40 mill or less to
Replace Hader as closer / Replace Suarez in setup role
Replace Snell
possibly replace Lugo
possibly extend Wacha
Replace Barlow
Replace Grisham
Replace Hill
Find a catcher / resign Sanchez
Padres are also about 160 – 170 mill committed for 2024 before arbs.
Ok I give up on you NoSub
I guess that’s one way to admit padres don’t have enough $$$ to fill holes.
At best padres push spending to 230 or less. Doubt they go past 1st tax penalty line.
Keeping Soto pushes them to 200 mill, already at 160-170 no arbs included.
Which means they’d only be able to extend Kim and be about 5-15 mill away from the tax line.
And that’s including cutting arb players they need to replace.
I’d rather have the young players. Put sotos arb salary towards elsewhere on the roster. And if padres want Soto sign him after 2024.
I think you are right about all except Barlow. They will either work out a multi-year deal with him, or go to arb and then look at signing him longer afterwards. He’s a decent pickup, and if he continues his late season form (which he has displayed in the past) then 7 mil is not a bad price for a solid setup man or potential closer. Certainly better than the 17 mil Hader wants.
I won’t mind a deal for Barlow. He was a closer and probably wants to be paid like one though. Arb amount isn’t that bad for him really. I’d just be willing to let that money bring back Wacha and Lugo (3/39 and 2/20 ish type deals) and find the next someone for the 6-8th innings.
Are you LFG or Filihook in disguise?
Loss of TV deal – priceless!
FYI Roster resources at Fangraphs is an amazing resource, hence the name. The Padres for 2024 are at 128m not including arbitration players… take a look:
fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres
So that would be 161m INCLUDING Soto.
I’d probably hold off on extending Kim. He hit .199/.280/.280 over his last 40 games. With Jackson Merrill in the picture and capable of playing the same positions I know I’d rather pay Soto 35-40m a year than Kim 20-25m a year.
That said maybe his price is cheaper and more in the 12-15m range. Regardless I’d wait till 2024 mid season to commit to him to give time for things to play out.
@padrepapi
you can not go by payroll, needs to be estimated luxury taxes which uses aav so you cant game the system that badly like for example payroll doesnt include the soon to be 20M a year for Tatis and only shows it at 11M or the eventual balloon of around 40M for machado which is only showing about 17-18M along with the league mandated expenses such as insurance top 50 pool etc etc to get you to the luxury tax thresholds.
it also i dont believe factors in the player options which everything in total will bring the number to 181M before arbitration. Obviously that number will come down some when wacha and lugo decline their options but will shoot right back up with even sotos arb.
Ill asuume lugo and wacha accept they player options mainly because im lazy in math but roughly lets say 240 for first threshold, 180ish currently and about 30-35 for soto … that leaves roughly 25-30 mil to fill holes and rest of arbitration.
I am aware that for luxury tax purposes they go by AAV. Going by that the AAV of the players with guaranteed contracts is 147m…. so still well short of the 160-170m nosub keeps repeating for the non arbitration players.
There is zero chance Wacha exercises his 6m player option to potentially bank 3/18m if he were to pick up the following two player options when he should have no problem getting a 2/24 or 3/36 type deal. I would love for Lugo to pick up his 1/7.5m option but he’ll decline and seems like a safe bet to get 2/20m.
People fretting about the Padres payroll IMO are off base. The team just set historical records in fans and revenue, they’re not going to pull a Reds after the off-season when they signed Castellanos and Moose and reverse course immediately.
The front office has made a point of keeping the reporters in the dark on specifics. Like last year when they had us believe the team only had 15m to spend and then they signed Saurez for 10m a year right away and we were left wondering how the heck were they going to be able to add a starter or two. Then they resign Nick Martinez for a similar salary and add Wacha and Lugo (were about 20m over where we were led to believe was available at that point) and of course they also signed Boegarts for 25m/yr. It’s the same way how on most of Preller’s trades/signings they happen without advance hints (Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Hader, etc.)
Should be s fun off-season to follow the padres. Maybe they can piss off some more cheap owners and the commissioner again.
@padrepapi
147 for AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts (does not include players no longer on 40-man roster) how about salaries for players that are no longer on the 40 man roster like say Eric Hosmer which is just a shade under 13 million …. so 147 + 13 is ….. 160.
This also doesnt include the bonus amount all teams pay for for pre arbitraion pool which is roughly 1.5 million pushing that number between 160-170 and this still doesnt include the league mandated benefits of 17M which actually pushes the number above his estimates and this is all before arbitration or factoring the estimated minor salaries. so even with Wacha and Lugo excluded you are still pushing the 160-170ish range
160 plus 17M is 177 then remove Lugo of 7.5 is 171.5 then remove Wacha at 6.5 and your 165 which is right in the middle of the number mentioned above before arbitration and non guaranteed salaries for players on the 40 man. There also might be buyouts for either wacha or lugo if declined options but not sure
Wacha can choose to stay either on a player option of 6.5M or the team can choose the option of 2 years 32 million which with their need for pitching might get excercised. Little bit of an overpay IMO but he has been in the system and the starting pitching market is not that great so might drive up the price a little. Especially since 2 of the top pitchers are coming back from injury (darvish and musgrove) the 3rd and 4th are pretty much free agents (lugo and snell) and then there is wacha who could be player or club optioned. I dont know the minor league starters for padres well so not sure if anyone ready to come up to replace 3 starters leaving and 2 coming back from injury.
Anyone who thinks the Padres are going to spend more money after the Bally’s fiasco is just fooling themselves.
Are you suggestimg that the free agent SP market is bad? It’s actually much better than the last few years as a whole. Lots of arms this year. The thin markwts are SS, C.
Just because it’s better than last year doesn’t make it “good”. It seems as if there are so many contending teams in need of 2 TOR guys this year which contributes to the perception that it is bad because there just aren’t enough to go around.
If comparing to a prior year is your model then ok, go with good.
If asking if the field will meet the demands – it isn’t good.
I hope your Padres figure out whatever it was that stopped their momentum from 2022. It would be a shame to see them crash and burn after such an exciting 2022.
Soto would look great in LF as the Jays cleanup hitter
What are you offering, JayFan? And just because we’re listening doesn’t mean we’re serious about shipping him, but we’ll listen to your best offer.
If the Ms retain Ty France at that arb salary I’m gonna lose it. Majority of those guys I would non tender except Gilbert obviously.
7 mil, so a $3 mil raise for a .250 12 HR <1 WAR regression season? If that’s the case, arb really does do a helluva job of protecting player salary
I wish all of those anti Preller trade mongers who bash on how horrible it was to have traded France (I actually like him while he was a prospect too) could he reading these posts. Nola sure flopped but to hear the bashers they think France is the next Juan Soto!
Meh, even if Ty never has another great season for us, that trade is pretty much stamped in time as a massive W for the M’s. And I wouldn’t give up on Ty just yet, next year is a pivotal year for him. I was just commenting on the fact that he probably shouldn’t get a raise for the season he had.
Another gem: Preller gave us Brash for Taylor Williams.
We appreciate Preller! Thank you AJ!
It was pretty bad but not because France. Munoz is the best player in that trade, although it remains to be seen if he’s a closer or more of a stud setup guy.
I remember watching them both in ST that year. Munoz had the gas but didn’t know where the plate was! It was bad. Then I think he was injured
/ minor league with a lot of question marks.
Nothing wrong with a question mark panning out and good for him but that is all he was at the time of the trade.
France is still young and may bounce back but has a downward trend ever since the trade. Preller bashers don’t seem to consider those facts – just how bad Nola had turned out.
Win some lose some. No doubt it goes down as a lose for Preller so don’t get me wrong.
Yeah Munoz recently had TJ when he was included in that crap deal.
I will say. Looking back at the deal from the Padres standpoint. The only player you actually miss is Munoz. France, TT, Torrens, Munoz was a very nice package for a mediocre guy like Nola. But when they traded for Nola and for a good period after, he filled a big hole for them behind home plate, and he did it well.
France was probably not going to get any abs on that team until/unless they came up with the universal DH.
That is very accurate. Even now with Munoz, he was in TJ and wouldn’t pitch for a year, never shown enough (yet) to be at mlb level and couldn’t find the plate.
It’s hard to complain about giving up the guy just because he recovered from surgery and has had a couple of good years. Of course closures tend to revert back more often than they stick as a 10 year closer so there is that.
The lottery ticket system pays off every now and then. More often than not, it doesn’t so can’t fault the trade at the time. Benefit of looking back – no doubt Mariners “won” though since Nola has fallen hard. Hopefully he recovers from his serious medical issue – likely from th pitch to face – and can at least continue as a serviceable backup a few years.
Those same bashers think Juan Soto is the next Ty France
So weird. I should probably learn more about arb if I’m gonna try to take Jerry’s job someday
Look at Clint Frasier. Over 4 yrs of service time and projected at $900k. I realize he’s struggled, but to still be that near minimum after 4 years…
I’d still take 900k a year in my 4th year considering I’m just a lame fan who speculates on my team in another country on a message board
Good for Clint. I hope he invests well
Really appreciate the projections Matt does every year. Fun to look back and see his accuracy. I’m certain players, agents and teams use these projections in their preparation for cases. Thank you for this insight into the arbitration process.
One thing this site doesn’t do enough of is following these types of projections in an easy to access manner. That and the free agent contest. It’s fun stuff we all enjoy as fans.
From the Brewers, you gotta think both Burnes and Adames get traded. At that arb point, both of them are worth more in prospects to this team. Rowdy and Lauer are gone. Woodruff is a big health risk at this point – see if he can start the season and either extend him or trade him at the deadline. Houser is a fine #4 or 5, so I think he’s safe. Next years squad is gonna look a whole lot different – I hope…
It’s going to look different no doubt ! And if brewers hold onto all those guys all season – they are going to pay for it over the next couple seasons in the win column ! They need to trade all 3 of those guys and maybe Williams too. Restock the top of the farm with 5/6 guys who can contribute right away or at some point next season.
Does Adames have any value right now? Oh wait, let me guess, he hit 28 hr and had a hot streak in September, so that means half the league will be after him..
I’m ready for any other team to take him away. Same with Rowdy. Good guy, but I’d much rather have Santana at 1st next year, if there’s mutual interest for it.
I’ll take Adams over Torres. There will be a few buyers out there – just not a ton of value. Bury him in a loaded lineup and his abilities play up like Torres does in that Yankees lineup. Prob is most teams like that have their ss. Maybe dodgers for someone like knack or Kyle hurt.
I don’t see rowdy getting a major league offer. He’s gonna have to find a team where he can earn it in spring training.
Adames has a lot of value for teams satisfied with a .217 batting average, streaky production, and occasional power. 24 HR, 165 SO, 71 walks and left 255 dudes on base. He certainly shouldn’t be batting 3rd or 4th in a lineup as Counsell regularly puts him, but that’s a different problem. Good defense. I’d try to trade him, no doubt.
TheYankees had far from a loaded lineup last year. Torres hit 3rd most of the year. He is waaaay better than Adames.
Soto 33M, wow. And while I’m sure it had to do with how many times thru the arb system, the disparity between Bedmar (4.7) and Sewald (7.3) is interesting as I feel Bednar has had more years success closing.
Who’s on the bubble of getting non-tendered?
I don’t think it will happen but Mike Yaz should get non-tendered. He’s a good player but he’s getting older and was on the IL 3 times last year. Don’t see his production getting better next year but he might interest other clubs in a trade.
Any other players out there you think are on the bubble?
Just off the cuff: Urias; Dom Smith; Yaz; Fullmer; Meadows; Grishom; Soroka; Tellez; Mullins; Gomber; Barlow?
Mullins? I think he’s safe even though he hasn’t been all that good this year. When he’s right he can go 30-30. If the O’s are going to move on I think they could trade him pretty easily
Yeah, I knew that one would be controversial. But he hasn’t been good, and with the O’s so frugal, they could potentially use that 7M elsewhere. But you’re probably right that they would trade him as opposed to not offering him arb.
I think Mullins is more than safe. He gets the extension this off season; not the likes of a Rutschman or Henderson. 4yrs @ 8 mil/yr.
Gibson, Frazier, Givens are coming off the Os payroll. That’s about a full offset to the arb increases. Their payroll could be flat.
Bad take on Mullins. $7M for a gold glove CF is worth it. The bat leaves much to be desired though. ~3 WAR in a down year. Orioles arent big budget but this is a no brainer.
I bet a good 15+ teams would give up a decent prospect or two for Mullens. There’s no way he’s non-tendered. Padres would gladly swap the cheaper Grisham and 1 or 2 of their top 15ish prospects I would imagine for the privilege.
Mullins would have to be safe simply because he’d be the Jays starting CF next year for free and you can’t let a division rival improve like that for nothing
Yankees could also be in the mix at that point too
If the Braves are confident Soroka will recover effectively, you may see a deal like they did with Matzek: 2 years, $5-7 mm, letting them supervise his rehab while writing off any expectations he will pitch in ‘24.
Mets n Yankees have a ton of bad arb eligible players
At least half of both lists will be non-tendered.
Yup. A quick look says Lou Trivino is gone, as is Higashioka, F. Cordero, German, Weber, McKinney, Bauers, and J. Cordero. Abreu and Bowman could be gone too, but their salaries are so little it won’t matter either way. Same with the Mets.
With Boone still managing and being a German supporter, I think there is a good chance they offer him arb. He can fill-in as the long man for Mike King. The dude tossed a perfect game while playing baseball wasn’t even his priority apparently.
i agree with those except Trivino i think gets arb or or maybe split deal. He has closing experience and if i remember right was a solid reliever for the yanks. Especially since he will be put on the 60 day and not cost a roster spot til probably all star break. Worth a flyer especially for the yanks payroll
Vlad Jr. is worth $20 mil if he plays at an Al;l-Star level. To do so, I’d say he needs to lose 40 lbs
Who does he sign with after the non-tender?
Mariners please!
Honestly every year i see these projections……Its shocking how bad these players get screwed. This whole system is antiquated. I mean for a player to only get 20% of his total value in his 4th year after he played for league minimum his first 3 yrs is insane if you ask me.
Not only that…he likelye has to go fight for his 20% in feaux court just even get that much. You should get paid your worth for good or bad.
I agree completely, but this system probably will remain in place, because the player’s union likes it. Young controlled players are low cost assets, and that makes it possible for the big FA contracts that the union and the players love.
That’s because you only look at the “stars” and not the big picture. There is also a reason the players association likes the arbitration process AND immediately shut down the “owners” proposal for a WAR based salary.
Also “fighting” for the 20% is what the player union wants because every dollar is ammunition for the next arbitration case.
drasco036
Who are you replying to? If you intended it to be me, I am not only looking at the stars. Besides, what you wrote is irrelevant to my post. It still stands that if teams had to pay a higher minimum, and higher salaries for 3+ years of service, increasing their payroll by $20-$30M, they wouldn’t be spending as much in free-agency.
I agree that there are other factors, but I had no intention to write treatise covering all aspects of controlled player salaries.
Don’t confuse arbitration with pre-arbitration. In arbitration there is no limit on the increase a player can receive, if they consistently perform at an elite level. Soto is projected to make $33 million which is a 50% increase over his current contract. For an elite player like that club’s have an incentive to sign a player to a long term contract at an evenly increasing AAV and avoid the huge annual increases. Arbitration contract values are based existing FA AAV, any scaling comes in as a result of available MLB track record. By the time they are close to FA their AAV is pretty close to what they’ll receive. Then you have players that underperform or are injured all year and still would get a raise.
System is very flawed. The injury part kills me. U get injured in your 3rd season and that injury effects what you make over the next 3 years and it could be to the tune of 30-40% less than what u make if you where never injured
$33 million ?!
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Soto. I doubt he’ll agree to an extension, but I can see the Padres holding on to him at $33M to see if they can win it all before he hits FA. Should they struggle again, he could get shopped, but I wouldn’t expect much of return for an expensive (even pro-rated), 2 month rental.
It will have to be more valuable offer than a top 40 pick as friars will get that if they let him walk
I do agree and think they’ll keep him ! That is their biz model !
Not a Pads fan but if I’m Preller I hang onto him. Don’t tear it down til the deadline.
Not a Pads fan either, but I agree. I’d do the same.
I’m pretty sure Tiger’s GM Harris will be cutting Skubal and Mize… Illich needs to save some money.
Love it! Wished Harris wouldn’t do the Farhan methodology that doesn’t work with dumpster diving for waivers. Skubal is incredible, top 5 arm in MLB. Mize is Matt Boyd 2.0, just another 1st round sec arm throwing low to mid 90s.
Blue Jays fans, is Vlad Jr worth $20 million?
Isn’t Bobby Dalbec arb eligible in 2024? I don’t see him on the list.
He did not have enough service time in 2023 to qualify as a Super 2 arbitration player. I believe his career service time is approximately 2.108 now.
Hope Rengifo is either traded or non-tendered this offseason!
By the way, this article is missing Phil Bickford and John King as being Super 2 arbitration eligible for the Mets and Cardinals respectively. Also Tyler Duffey (who was selected by the Cubs on the last day of the season) is missing as a 5+ player. He won’t be tendered, but this article has Matt Bush who was also added on the last weekend of the season. Finally, Ryan O’Hearn surpassed 5 years of service time because he got a full year of service time in 2023. I assume whatever source you got the service time information from had not yet given retroactive service time for unused optional assignment days. Because O’Hearn was on optional assignment for less than 20 days, he does not use an option year and is retroactively awarded service time for the days he was on optional assignment.