Jorge Polanco is now at the end of the guaranteed part of his contract. The switch-hitting infielder signed a five-year, $25.75MM extension going into the 2019 campaign, with a pair of club options for 2024 and 2025. The first one is valued at $10.5MM with a $1MM buyout, making it a net $9.5MM decision, followed by a $12.5MM option for ’25 with a buyout of $750K.
Polanco, 30, has been consistently productive over the course of the deal, apart from a dip in the shortened 2020 season. He hit 22 home runs in 2019, producing a batting line of .295/.356/.485 and a wRC+ of 120. After his aforementioned struggles in 2020, he bounced back with a 33-homer campaign in 2021, slashing .269/.323/.503 for a 124 wRC+.
The injury bug has bit him a couple of times in the past two seasons, limiting him to just 184 games over 2022 and 2023, but he’s still been productive when on the field. He’s hit 30 home runs in that time and walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a line of .244/.341/.427 and 119 wRC+.
Defensively, Polanco has been gradually moved off shortstop over the course of the deal but is still playable at second. Outs Above Average gave him a grade of -5 at the keystone in 2023 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +2.
Picking up the option in an easy decision. $9.5MM for a switch-hitting middle infielder with 30-homer potential is a bargain. However, there are some other factors that may lead the Twins to consider a trade. One factor is the weak free agent class, which is light on impact bats, especially in the middle infield. The shortstop class doesn’t really have a viable everyday option, while the group of second basemen is headlined by Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier. Most teams would likely prefer Polanco at his option price over what those free agents will get on the open market.
There’s also the internal roster situation. Polanco’s not really a viable shortstop anymore, but Carlos Correa has that position locked down anyway. At third base, Royce Lewis is finally healthy and showing his potential. He wasn’t able to play much from 2020 to 2022 thanks to the pandemic and then twice tearing his right ACL, but he was back on the field for the second half of 2023. He got into 58 games and mashed 15 home runs for a batting line of .309/.372/.548 and 155 wRC+, then hit another four home runs in the playoffs. Though he came up as a shortstop, he played a lot of third base next to Correa and seems likely to have that position going forward.
At second base, Edouard Julien got significant playing time this year and there was plenty to like about his performance. Though he struck out in 31.4% of his trips to the plate, he also walked at a stout 15.7% clip and hit 16 home runs in his 109 games. His .263/.381/.459 line translated to a 136 wRC+. His defense has been considered subpar and his -3 DRS at second this year supports that, but OAA had him at an even zero. There’s also Kyle Farmer in the mix with the opposite profile, a strong defender with a subpar bat. He hit .253/.314/.405 this year for a 99 wRC+ while adding quality defense at all four infield positions. His projected arbitration salary of $6.6MM for next year might feel high for a bench/utility player, but he’s produced at least 1.5 fWAR for three straight seasons now.
Julien’s defense arguably makes him a candidate to move over to first base, but the Twins also have an option there. Alex Kirilloff hit .270/.348/.445 in 2023 for a 120 wRC+, an encouraging development after poor results in previous seasons caused by wrist issues. He’s set to undergo shoulder surgery this month, but it’s on his non-throwing arm.
The designated hitter spot could help the Twins find at-bats for all these guys, but then there’s the looming Byron Buxton question. The center fielder was kept exclusively in the designated hitter spot in 2023 due to his ongoing knee issues. It’s hoped he’ll be healthier next year after undergoing an arthroscopic procedure on his knee last week, but the club will likely have to plan on keeping the DH spot free for him until he proves he doesn’t need it.
Another factor is that the Twins may want to get some more starting pitching. Each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel are heading into free agency, subtracting three options from the rotation. They will still have Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, but some question marks beyond that. Chris Paddack will be in the mix but has only thrown 27 1/3 innings in the past two years combined due to Tommy John surgery. Louie Varland could be another factor but he’s relatively unproven, with just 94 big league innings to his name thus far.
The Twins could turn to the free agent market to help replace those starters, or departing reliever Emilio Pagán, but there’s some uncertainty in terms of the budget. The club is still trying to sort out its broadcasting situation in the wake of the Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports bankruptcy. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently admitted that this could have an impact on the club’s payroll next year.
Injuries are inevitable as the Twins well know, having dealt with their share over the years. Perhaps they will opt to simply hold onto Polanco with the knowledge that they will eventually need depth and that space will be made for all their infielders. But if they did make Polanco available, he would surely garner plenty of interest given the weak free agent market. This provides the club with an avenue to address other parts of the roster while perhaps saving money instead of spending it.
What do the MLBTR readers think? Should the Twins hang onto Polanco or put him on the trading block? Have your say in the poll below!
(poll link for app users)
Trade him for pitching? Or keep him and rotate guys like Lewis, Julien, Correa, Polanco in the DH spot for extra rest.
I guess it depends if Minnesota is able to bring back Sonny Gray. If not trade Polanco for pitching.
This is an easy decision. Keep Polanco. He is not breaking the bank and he produces. Sign the pitchers too. We are creating an either/or type of story that doesn’t match reality. The Twins are in position to own the abysmal Central for the next 3-5 years so they need to spend.
I would prefer to trade Julien. He looked great at the plate this year but so did Miranda last year. Capitalize on that value and keep the player we know and love
Miranda was hurt all season long beginning in spring. It would be a mistake to completely write him off.
Also pretty ridiculous to be wary of one player because of the failures of a completely different player
Can we agree sophomore slump is a thing? Or that Polanco is a proven commodity? Or that Julien might have more trade value than Polanco this offseason?
I didn’t say I’d given up on Miranda. Only that he wasn’t as good this year as last
The K rate is a pretty large red flag for Julien. He also plays bad D. Wouldn’t be surprised if 2023 was the best version of Julien in the bigs.
Which is fine if he can produce at 90% of what he was this year moving forward. I just don’t think he’s a prospect that will substantially improve.
Yes
Justification:
Trading Jorge Polanco may be a prudent decision for the Minnesota Twins at this juncture. While Polanco has been a consistent and productive player, several factors weigh in favor of exploring a trade:
Roster Dynamics: The emergence of young talents like Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien, who can play roles similar to Polanco’s, opens up opportunities to reallocate resources more effectively and foster long-term growth.
Budgetary Considerations: With financial uncertainties related to the broadcasting situation and potential payroll constraints, trading Polanco could free up funds to address the pressing need for starting pitching, especially with the departure of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Dallas Keuchel.
Injury History: Polanco’s recent injury history raises questions about his long-term availability and performance. By trading him, the Twins can mitigate the risk associated with potential injuries.
Trade Market Demand: The weak free-agent market makes Polanco an attractive trade asset, potentially yielding valuable returns in terms of prospects or established players.
While Polanco’s contributions are valuable, the Twins should consider the evolving dynamics of their roster, budget constraints, and the need to bolster their pitching staff. A trade involving Polanco could help address multiple pressing concerns, making it a strategically sound decision.
While trading him does reallocate resources, whether it’s more effective is questionable. Lewis is the actual injury risk, and Julien has not been around long enough to predict consistency. Miranda is also an unknown. All your other reasons I agree with. At the same time, they won’t be able to replace him thru FA, so they better be sure.
Keuchel started a whole 6 games, his departure won’t even be noticed. Maeda was solid but easy to replace. The only real hit to their rotation is the loss of Gray, how they address that I’d say will be make or break for their rotation.
Old York your answers are so slick I thought for a second I was reading ChatGPT.
@Ignorant Son-of-a-b
you, sir. I need to keep up with the times.
Me too!
I was very amazed with the flawless grammar, sentence construction and impeccable punctuation technique. I was thinking to myself “Well heck! Old York is on his A-game today!” Haha
Too controllable
Get him a bigger glove maybe
Dump Buxton, too. Run back last season with the same production, except give anyone at all else Buxton’s 350 PAs, and they win another 3 to 5 games
Polanco, Buxton, Kepler…. Trade them for pitching.
Buxton has a full NTC. Absolutely no team would take him at his salary/contract length either. If the Twins want to shed Buxton from the roster, they’re going to have to do it by essentially DFA’ing him. Not going to happen.
Then eat the $80 mil and give the 350 PAs to someone else since being the worst Division Winner is the same as being a Wild Card Team
Buxton played 1/2 the season and generated 0.7 WAR at DH.
Ohtani would have delivered about 3.7 WAR in 350 PA. He’ll cost 3x as much as Buxton.
The average DH generated 2.0 WAR in a full season last year or 0.5 wins more than Buxton produced in a half season.
During 2023, 33% of primary DH’s with 350+ plate appearances delivered less value than Buxton in total.
The bottom line is Buxton is technically functional at DH, though I don’t think the Twins expect him to stick there and the Twins are going to have to pay for him one way or the other, plus sign somebody to replace him.
I’m not a Buxton fan, but it is what it is.
Best trade partner? Mariners need a 2B and have an abundance of pitching. Win-win for both teams.
Boom. If he can stay healthy, he would be an amazing fit for us. I would love Gleyber Torres if we can’t get one of Polanco or potentially FA Whit Merrifield. Ms gotta do something though.
Toronto might be interested. They need someone at both positions he plays.If they got him they would have the flexibility to pursue an upgrade at either 2B or 3B allowing them to look for the best possible fit at either position rather than being locked into one of the other.
Polanco also has a fair bit of power (33 HRS in 2021 and a combined 30 HRS over the last 2 years in a little over a full season’s worth of PA), something the Jays sorely need right now.
Polanco to Toronto for Romano
To be fair, the reason the Twins should trade him are the same reasons teams shouldn’t be interested. Good player but not as a rental.
He’s got two option years, 24-25. So not a strict rental
With how weak the 2B market is, he by all means is a rental this season. When Schoop is in the top 3 of most available 2B lists, that’s telling of just how bleak the market is.
He is simply too injury prone to expect much of a return. He’s played in half the games the past two seasons and while he was productive a team can’t count on him. Probably fetches a middle reliever in a deal.
He’ll get a pretty big return due to the 2nd option at $12MM for 2025. That’s a huge, huge upside for any team acquiring him.
1. A wRC+ 120ish hitter, 2-4 WAR 2B in 2024 at one year $10.5MM
2. If healthy, trade bait at the 2024 deadline with 1.5 yrs of potential control left.
3. End of year trade bait by exercising relatively cheap $12MM option he he plays well.
4. If he plays poorly in 2024, $1MM buyout and he’s off the roster.
5. If he performs well and the team desires to keep him for 2025, another one year contract at $12MM
6. If healthy, trade bait at the 2025 deadline as a rental.
7. If Polanco performs both seasons, an easy QO at the end of 2025 to get another draft pick.
Acquiring teams get a player well under market value and are protected from risk many times over with this deal. Huge upside, almost no downside.
If CWS declines Anderson’s option, they’d need Polanco, but what do they really have to send in return? Plus you’re dealing with a division rival, and that’s an obstacle.
White Sox don’t have much to offer for Polanco, but he definitely would be an upgrade over Tim Anderson.
Aside from Cease and Oscar Colas, there’s not much leverage on their end in any trade. Larnach and Polanco for Colas is intriguing if MIN is willing to believe Colas’ raw talent can be refined in a reasonable amount of time.
White Sox would need to a really good job of selling Colas’s potential but I would definitely trade him for Polanco. If Cease is involved, they have to ask for more, Cease is a legitimate starter.
I don’t think MN would want Colas for Polanco. He’s not enough of a talent. Poor strike zone judgement and weak to average glove. They’d want more!
It’s already a hard sell on Colas, now add in the fact the Chris Getz doesn’t exactly exude confidence and the task becomes a monumental challenge.
@solaris602 – You must be looking at Baseballtradevalues or something. Polanco’s value is not accurately reflected there, and Colas is overrated pretty badly there atm. Polanco’s probably more like a +15/20 trade value right now, IMHO.
Colas won’t garner much interest from anybody. A straight up deal for Trevor Larnach would be interesting, but I think Larnach still has more value as he’s shown he can at least be serviceable at the MLB level. Colas’ potential is fading fast and he was truly awful in the big show last year. Larnach’s ceiling is probably a 2 WAR guy. Colas’ potential might be 3 WAR, but his average is replacement level and his floor is lower still.
Sox don’t need a shortstop. They need to bring up Montgomery. If anything trade Sosa and sign Merrifield.
2 WAR in 80 games this season. Injury depth. A bargain contract. Going to take a pretty good package to justify a trade. I’d keep him unless its a you can pass that up offer.
As always it depends on the contract. This may be his last chance to lock in 3 years or longer at an upscale price. Twins not likely to go $45 million. Hand writing is on the club house wall.
Twins don’t need to lock him up. They own him in 2025, too.
I love Polanco, but, ultimately, yeah pick up his option and listen to trade offers and/or package him for a key player. But it has to be exceptional; if nothing really great is offered, I would happily keep him and find places for him to play.
Can he play 1B?
Yep. Keep him. If team is in contention leading up to August 1st, continue to keep him. He has playoff experience cred including a better than league avg OBP.
Yep! Playoff experience kicking balls around like it’s soccer!
Polanco is a valuable trade asset with tons of depth in the Twins system who can take his spot for much less money. Here are the potential starting infielders for the Twins in 2024 who could potentially play 2B..
Brooks Lee
Yunior Severino (rule 5 eligible has to be added to 40 man)
Anthony Prato (rule 5 eligible has to be added to 40 man)
Austin Martin (rule 5 eligible, has to be added to 40 man)
Nick Gordon
Jose Miranda
Edouard Julien
Royce Lewis
Willi Castro
Kyle Farmer
Jorge Polanco
Carlos Correa
Even though Polanco is valuable, he’s not a key to the Twins’ success. He’s not a cornerstone player, and he can be fully or largely replaced by many guys making far less money. Being sentimental about guys like Polanco shouldn’t be a feature of a good front office.
This reminds me very much of the AJ Pierzynski scenario with Joe Mauer almost ready to contribute.
With Austin Martin and Brooks Lee close and Eddie Julien and Nick Gordon here…. I think it makes sense to go after pitching. I don’t see Julien as a 2nd baseman, but we need a home for Lee and Lee is a very special talent. With Gordon and Julien already at the bigs and Lee being close I think we need to trade Polo and free up both salary and bring in pitching from both a trade and salary freed up.
Martin, Prato, Severino, and Lee in that order are likely to be added to the 40 man and start at 2B for opening day next year.
Still, I think Castro has better odds at starting 2B right now with Julien behind him if Polanco is moved.
They don’t have to trade him, but they should explore the market. It’s difficult to make a clear choice without understanding the potential return.
If the offers are good pitching in return, Twins should pull the trigger.
The offers are going to be prospects. Polanco will not bring back good MLB level pitching.
I’d lean towards keeping him, but I don’t what the budget situation is or how to feel about the depth beyond Farmer. Are Miranda or Martin anything to be optimistic about? Seems like getting some starting pitching in free agency should be possible and as the roster is constructed now, Polanco should still get enough playing time either due to injuries or the use of platoons.
I think his trade value increases if he can handle more than just 2B capably.
With Lee nearly ready, Miranda returning healthy and Martin finally living up to his potential in the minors they have the depth to trade a guy like Polanco. I’d like to see it. Doenst even have to be for major league talent, could just build the farm back up as well.
They have the talent to make a run next year already. The kids will be a year more experienced, Correa won’t have plantar and the rotation should be solid if they make no moves (which I doubt)
Plantar can be a nagging, chronic condition.
Can’t really count on Correa to be “healed” from it in 2024.
For that reason alone, Farmer and/or Polanco should begin the season with the team.
Correa has 5 years and $168MM left on his contract. If he’s not “healed” he’ll be at 3B or something and Lewis will move to SS. Polanco started 3 games at SS last year. He’s not remotely considered a replacement for Correa.
Lewis plays short right? They could just use Lewis at short and have Polanco play 3B if Correa needs to miss time. Polanco could replace Correa in the lineup if needed.
Lewis was drafted and developed as a shortstop and he’s probably the #2 starting shortstop on the depth chart.
Polanco cannot play the far side of the infield outside of an emergency. His arm has always been too weak to play there. Beyond that, Polanco’s range is offset by his poor error rate. His only legitimate fielding position is 2B or maybe left field though he has virtually no experience there even in the minors.
Ok then play Polanco at 2nd and let one of the kids play 3rd. The point is they would have options to shift people around and I’m sure it wouldn’t hurt them too much short term. There are ways to get his bat in the lineup.
@Jaysfansince92 – The points are:
1) There are a ton of viable 2B in the Twins system, and Polanco is blocking them.
2) Polanco is probably not a lot better than the talent the Twins already have who could play 2B.
3) Polanco’s only defensive versatility is on paper so moving him to ease roster pressure is not really an option.
4) Polanco will be earning $10-12MM per year for the next couple seasons or roughly 5-10x what his replacements will earn and the Twins are carrying a record payroll already.
5) Polanco has a lot of trade value and Falvey has blown through a lot of high end farm system talent in the past few years to acquire pitching.
As a fan i hate to say it, but he should be moved. Too many young players knocking at the door. That being said, I don’t think many twins fans would be upset with him on the roster next year. Pitching is not the desperate concern it has been for like 30 yrs.
Why? He’s one of their best hitters, on a reasonable contract, and they have a strong rotation. Why trade him?
I was thinking the same thing. Depth is key over a long season. Multiple starting infielders are genuine injury concerns and having someone like Polanco to step in is huge. Even is everyone stays healthy you can mix and match and get everyone lots of rest (something both Lewis and Correa could benefit from with their recent history).
They can always move him at the deadline for pitching if it becomes a strong enough need and they get the right offer.
They would probably get more talent back than they would receive by keeping him
Pitching prospects. Get two or more for Polanco. The Twins need more pitching depth.
They have plenty of candidates to replace Polanco’s production, and play same position(s).
Austin Martin comes to mind. Also, Nick Gordon should be ready to go next spring.
Brooks Lee is the obvious choice by the end of 2024.
Yunior Severino just slugged 35 minor league homers in AA and AAA last season.
There are an abundance of in-house options that are more than viable here.