In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk will hold a Blue Jays-centric chat on 10-14-23 at 7:00PM CDT. Click here to leave a question in advance.
The Blue Jays scored only one run in their two Wild Card Series games with the Twins, capping off a season of offensive disappointment. With several position-player free agents perhaps on the way out of town, the Jays will try to retool and reinvigorate a shaky lineup.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Berrios, SP: $101MM through 2028 (Berrios has opt-out clause after 2026 season)
- Kevin Gausman, SP: $70MM through 2026
- George Springer, OF: $67.5MM through 2026
- Chris Bassitt, SP: $42MM through 2025
- Bo Bichette, SS: $27.5MM through 2025
- Yusei Kikuchi, SP, $10MM through 2024
- Yimi Garcia, RP: $5MM through 2024
2024 financial commitments: $110.5MM
Total future commitments: $323MM
Option Decisions
- Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $18MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
- Chad Green, RP: $27MM club option covering 2024-26 seasons (if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option for 2024; if both options are declined, Blue Jays can then exercise a $21MM club option covering the 2024-25 seasons)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2MM
- Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM
- Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM
- Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM
- Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM
- Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM
- Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM
- Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM
- Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM
- Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM
- Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM
- Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K
- Non-tender candidates: Cimber, Espinal
Free Agents
The Blue Jays finished 29th of 30 teams in stolen-base percentage, 27th in Fangraphs’ BsR metric (baserunning runs above average), tied for 26th in sacrifice flies, and tied for 28th in sac hits overall. Toronto also made the fifth-most outs on the bases of any club, while hitting into the fourth-most double plays. Combined with middle-of-the-pack numbers in homers and production with runners in scoring position, and it wasn’t any surprise that the Jays had issues consistently generating offense, despite respectable or even impressive numbers in other offensive categories.
It was a startling step backwards for a team that, if anything, looked to be relying on its offense to carry a seemingly shaky rotation heading into 2023. The offseason trades of Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. don’t tell the whole story of the lineup’s decline, since while Gurriel replacement Daulton Varsho struggled badly at the plate, the Jays’ larger problem was that almost all of their returning hitters took steps backwards.
Of every Blue Jays hitter who had at least 120 plate appearances for the team in both 2022 and 2023, only Cavan Biggio (from 97 to 103) improved his wRC+ over the two seasons. Several other regulars took drastic drops — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from 133 to 118, George Springer from 133 to 104, Danny Jansen from 141 to 116, Alejandro Kirk from 129 to 96, and Whit Merrifield from 120 to 93.
The result was a season full of close, often low-scoring games that kept the Jays grinding from day one amidst the very competitive AL East race. As it turned out, the rotation (as well as a very good bullpen and excellent defense) helped carry Toronto to another wild card berth, except just like in 2022, the Jays suffered a demoralizing two-game sweep. The Twins only needed to score five runs over the two WCS games to top the scuffling Jays lineup, with base-running mistakes from Guerrero and Bo Bichette short-circuiting two of Toronto’s few possible rallies.
Some of the club’s better offensive performers are now hitting free agency, adding another layer of difficulty to the Blue Jays’ attempts to solve their hitting problems. One would imagine the Jays would have interest in re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt in particular, assuming Belt plays at all next season and foregoes retirement. However, since both players stayed relatively healthy, they might be looking to move on to more lucrative deals or preferred locations elsewhere. Kiermaier, for one, has publicly expressed his preference for playing on grass fields, so he might opt to finally seek out a natural surface after 11 seasons on the artificial grass in Tampa Bay and Toronto.
Matt Chapman is in the strange position of being both one of the winter’s top free agents, yet also a player with something to prove in 2024. Chapman displayed his typically excellent third-base glovework, yet hit a modest .240/.330/.424 with 17 homers in 581 plate appearances — his 110 wRC+ was down from his 118 total in 2022. Moreover, almost all of Chapman’s best offensive moments came in April, when he won AL Player of the Month honors. From May 1 onward, Chapman had a subpar 84 wRC+ in 467 PA, and was further bothered by a finger injury over the season’s last two months.
With all this in mind, the Blue Jays might prefer to just receive draft pick compensation for Chapman, and let him walk in free agency rather than sign him to what will still very likely be a nine-figure free agent deal. The decision on Whit Merrifield is easier since the Jays won’t be exercising their end of his $18MM mutual option, but if both Merrifield and Chapman leave, that’s suddenly two starting infield positions to be filled.
Since Varsho can take over center field for Kiermaier, that would leave third base, second base, left field, and DH as the open positions if all four of Belt, Kiermaier, Chapman, and Merrifield departed. For DH, the Jays might try to replace Belt with another left-handed hitter who could semi-platoon with Kirk, and possibly seek out a lefty-swinger who could play more positions than just first base. In that scenario, the Blue Jays might not have a true regular DH at all, but instead use the spot to give multiple players half-days off. Rookie Spencer Horwitz might also factor into the picture as an in-house left-handed bat who can play first base.
(Since we’re talking designated hitters, cue the obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention. As aggressive as Toronto has been in pursuing free agents during GM Ross Atkins’ tenure, it would count as a big surprise to see the Jays win the bidding for the record-setting contract it will take to land Ohtani.)
Returning to internal options, the Blue Jays figure to go that route for one of second base or third base. Davis Schneider’s bat came back to reality in September, but the rookie’s hot start to his career has likely earned the mustachioed fan favorite a shot at at least a platoon job heading into Spring Training. Biggio probably did enough to preserve his roster spot, but Santiago Espinal hit poorly and looks like a non-tender candidate.
Prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, and Leo Jimenez all look set to make their MLB debuts in 2024, with Martinez and Barger in particular candidates for something closer to everyday roles. Barger might ultimately be Toronto’s third baseman of the future, and while Martinez is a bit more of a question mark in regards to his eventual infield landing spot, his hitting potential is very intriguing. By contrast, Jimenez is a work in progress hitting-wise, yet his glove will make him at least a backup middle infielder on a big league roster.
The Blue Jays would probably prefer to devote just one position for some combination of their in-house players, leaving the other infield spot open for a big league regular. Infield-heavy teams like the Guardians, Cardinals, or even the division-rival Orioles could be fits as trade partners, and making a deal might be a preferred option for the Jays in finding a true upgrade since there isn’t a lot of depth in either the second or third base free agent markets.
That being said, Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro has stated that the team plans to at least match its $215MM payroll (and estimated $248MM luxury tax number, putting the Jays over the first tax line). With a good chunk of money coming off the books, this gives Toronto roughly $40-$45MM in spending capacity, and room to make another splashy move.
Looking at the infield market, then, bringing Jeimer Candelario or Justin Turner into the fold couldn’t be ruled out. Candelario would be a longer-term signing, settling in at third base at least for a couple more seasons and then possibly moving into a first base/DH capacity if his defense declines or if Barger emerges as a legitimate third base option. Turner could be an even better fit since he’d only require a shorter-term contract as he enters his age-39 season, but Turner could slide between both corner infield slots and DH as circumstances dictate. It is also worth noting that the Blue Jays targeted Turner the last time that he was both a free agent and when the Jays last had a third-base vacancy.
Left field seems like the obvious position for a new bat to be added, again probably a left-handed hitter given the righty tilt of Toronto’s lineup. Joc Pederson or former Jays targets Michael Brantley or Michael Conforto could be fits, and the resurgent Jason Heyward could be an option since the Jays will still be looking to keep their defense strong. The switch-hitting Aaron Hicks figures to get attention from Toronto and several other teams, since he’ll only cost a minimum MLB salary because the Yankees are paying the remainder of his 2024-25 salaries.
If specifically left-handed hitting outfielders aren’t a must, then a reunion with Hernandez or Gurriel can’t be ruled out. Hernandez’s numbers dropped off in his first season in Seattle, which figures to lower his free-agent price tag to some extent even if the Mariners will probably still issue him a qualifying offer. If Hernandez didn’t get a QO but was still open to a one-year pillow contract as a way of elevating his profile for next winter’s free agent market, a return to Toronto might be feasible, as the Blue Jays had interest in Hernandez back at the trade deadline.
Turning to the pitching front, the Jays will likely still add an arm or two to the bullpen, though most of their relievers are still controlled in 2024. The hard-throwing Jordan Hicks will draw plenty of interest around the league, and if he doesn’t re-sign, Toronto will look for someone else to bring some velocity to the back of the pen.
Some level of extra rotation help will be needed, since the odds of that top four starters all remaining as effective and healthy as they were in 2023 is quite slim. But, for the first time in several seasons, the Blue Jays have the luxury of a mostly settled rotation. Kevin Gausman was a Cy Young Award candidate, and Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi were all very good to solid over the course of the year. For Berrios and Kikuchi in particular, they delivered tremendous bounce-back performances after struggling badly in 2022.
Hyun Jin Ryu pitched pretty well after returning from Tommy John surgery and could be a candidate to re-sign, but Ryu might be looking for a bigger contract than the Jays are willing to give considering how much money Toronto has already invested in its starters. The Blue Jays could look for couple of veteran innings-eater types to compete for the fifth starter job and to provide depth, with an eye towards promoting star prospect Ricky Tiedemann in the second half if Tiedemann pitches well at Triple-A.
Alek Manoah is still ostensibly the fifth starter heading into 2024, yet the right-hander is now an X-factor after his unusual 2023 campaign. Manoah had a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings, during a season that included a month-long stint at extended Spring Training to work on his mechanics, and no pitching appearances at all after August 10 due to unclear reasons, ranging from possible injury to some discord with the organization.
It’s anyone’s guess as to how Manoah will pitch next season, or perhaps even if he’ll pitch at all. If there are some behind-the-scenes issues souring things, the Jays might prefer to part ways with Manoah altogether via trade. Naturally his trade value is low at the moment, but since Manoah was a Cy Young candidate just in 2022, several teams will have interest in exploring if a change of scenery can revive his career.
Manoah’s situation is uniquely abnormal, yet it relates to the larger uncertainty over the players the Blue Jays were counting on as cornerstones. Atkins has done a pretty solid job of adding productive free agents and trade pieces to this core group, but the Jays now face the increasingly worrisome possibility that this core isn’t as solid as once thought. To this end, in the same way that Hernandez and Gurriel were traded to change the Jays’ offensive shape last winter, would they consider again trading from their core to remake the lineup?
It can be safely assumed that Bichette and (for contract size alone) Springer aren’t going anywhere. Varsho and Kirk would each have some trade value but as sell-low type of players given their underwhelming batting numbers. Plus, moving Varsho or Kirk would then open up another position that the Blue Jays would have to address — Varsho was basically always intended as Kiermaier’s eventual replacement in center field, while Kirk is insurance at catcher since Danny Jansen has had trouble staying off the injured list.
As wild as this concept would’ve sounded two seasons ago, could Guerrero then be a trade chip? It would still be selling low in some regard, since Guerrero was only decent at the plate in 2023 and took a big step back defensively at first base. But, Guerrero’s youth, superstar profile, and his MVP-level numbers in 2021 still give him plenty of trade value, and there are surely lots of teams who will look at his Statcast metrics and think a turn-around is inevitable. Trading Guerrero could be seen as incredibly bold or as incredibly risky, and it might not be something the front office quite wants to consider just yet.
For one, the Blue Jays might want to see how Guerrero and the other regulars might respond to a new hitting strategy, since rumors have swirled all season about the fate of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez. It has yet to be revealed how much (if any) overhaul is coming to the coaching staff, though that could be a logical way of making an internal shakeup since GM Ross Atkins has already announced that manager John Schneider will be returning in 2024.
Likewise, Shapiro announced that Atkins is returning, even if the president/CEO stated “there needs to be a higher level of transparency and communication with our players in our preparation and game-planning process.” How the Blue Jays will make these changes remains to be seen, but simply getting their hitters back to their 2022 form (even as inconsistent as that season was) would make a world of difference to the Jays going forward.
Winning solves everything, as the cliche goes, but winning 89 games and making the postseason again wasn’t enough to clear the atmosphere that seemed to grind the Blue Jays down as the season wore on. With Toronto’s fanbase becoming increasingly impatient for results, Atkins faces a pivotal offseason in determining how to fix the problems both on and off the field.
Kershaw'sRightArm
What is the conversion rate to USD with win percentage? Is it like 1 USD win equals .97 wins in CAD?
bucsfan0004
More like 1 HR equals .73 HRs in Canada
GRE
The Off Season Should START WITH shapiro AND HIS USELESS CARRY ON BAGGAGE atkins…FIRED !!!!
That Would Be an EXCELLENT START TO THE OFF SEASON !!!
Vladdy is NOWHERE NEAR $20 Mil/yr….
Hemlock
WHY ARE WE YELLING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GRE
I WANT ROGERS TO HEAR ME ….LOL
Hemlock
OKAY CONTINUE!!!!!
YELL IT LOUD!!!!!
runningwithnailclippers
HEY GUYS! CAN YOU SPARE A DIME?
canajay12
They’ve assembled a really good roster. I think the issues are coaching or overall strategy but their roster assembly has actually been solid.
scissormetimbers
Nah dude, they put too much focus on glove first players.
canajay12
In hindsight sure. They were still a playoff team though.
It was only “too much” D once Springer, Vladdy, Kirk and Varsho all had down years offensively. No team can overcome 4 of their pencilled in best bats having mediocre years, I think the fact they still made the playoffs shows how strong the roster was on paper.
DonOsbourne
Is that Chad Green contract info right?
TheRickestRick
Yeah
It’s kind of a crazy contract.
jimmertee
Yes that Chad Green contract info is correct.
GOAT Closer Esteban Yan
I was about to ask the same thing. I’ve never seen such a complicated contract.
LordD99
I remember when that deal was signed. My head spins every time I read the numbers trying to figure out what’s going to happen. I don’t see the Blue Jays taking a three-year deal at $27MM. Chad can decline then and get more on the market than the $6.25 now that he’s healthy, but once the Jays decline 3/27, no way will they then go for a 2/21. I suspect if both sides are happy with each other, they’ll negotiate a more straight-forward deal before they’re forced to play “Game of Options.”
In Seager/Hader We Trust > the 70 MM DH Ohtani
The George Springer numbers seem way off. Baseball Reference has him at 24.167 MM each of the next 3 years.
Hemlock
>George Springer, OF: $67.5MM through 2026
Conversion of $72.5MM USD into $67.5MM CAD. Economics 101.
bigdaddyt
Would be closer to 100mill CAD but I guess Econ101 is a bit hard for Americans eh?
Hemlock
I’m aware the current coversion rate is 1 to 1.37.
The article’s author goofed the financials and my joke was he applied his Economics 101 knowledge (or lack thereof) to it.
They constantly screw things up on this site.
He came up with $67.5MM somehow.
bigdaddyt
Hate to be the one to tell but despite the fact that the blue jays are indeed based in Canada they don’t pay their players in Canadian currency. It’s all USD they do the same in hockey
Hemlock
THANKS FOR KILLING MY JOKE
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT
bigdaddyt
Jokes are supposed to be funny
KamKid
Looks like the difference is in the signing bonus. $22.5m base and $1.67m signing bonus.
scissormetimbers
He looked good, I’d see what Hicks is looking for first and if the Jay’s are priced out Green is a solid backup option on tye 3 ye deal
Seamaholic
I would totally send Vladdy off if someone would offer a good lefty swinging corner OF or 2B/3B for him. But honestly I don’t think you can get it. He’s an obligate 1B, for one thing, and a lot of teams may think he’s in the process of eating his way out of the league.
I’d call the Rox about Ryan McMahon if I were them. Fantastic glove at both 2B and 3B, and has some power from the left side. Colorado needs to trade him because of a wave of prospects on the way. Rox wouldn’t be interested in Vladdy, but you can get him for a good AA, non-Tiedemann pitcher I bet.
ohyeadam
He looked like a seal laying there asking for a treat when he was picked off at 2B
Tigers3232
You might want to inform COL they need to trade McMahon. They extended him for 6 years prior to 2022 season. And no way they’d only want an AA pitcher for him.
gbs42
Why would Colorado basically give away McMahon for a Double-A arm?
Seamaholic
He makes a lot of dough.
gbs42
The Rockies just gave Blackmon another $13M-$15M to come back next year. Between that and the pitchers they’ve extended, they don’t seem to mind wasting money to keep their guys around.
Tigers3232
They signed Bryant for almost $30M per season when they clearly were far from contending. What makes you think they’d be concerned about the $12M McMahon makes?
seamaholic 2
They’re not. But they need to trade either McMahon (3B/2B) or Rodgers (2B) or both. They have too many prospects that are just about ready and they need to be prospect-focused after a 100 loss season.
Tigers3232
They have one 2 IF prospects that are projected to see MLB next season. One is 1B and one is 3B. They do not need to be in any rush on other prospects.
its_happening
Jays are worse off with that deal.
Cardinals have the surplus of 3B the Jays need but they don’t need Vlad.
DonOsbourne
I just want to know how they fixed Genesis Cabrera. I’m not AT ALL surprised someone was able to get more out of him than the Cardinals, but I just want to know how.
bigdaddyt
Only let him face bottom of the order lefties and pull him as soon as you can
KamKid
Replied but as a new comment below.
its_happening
Smoke and mirrors.
iverbure
Lol
octavian8
Joey Votto would be a nice fit for DH and 1B
bigdaddyt
I want them to blow it up and trade off all the assets but since that’s not happening I would love Votto just for the memes
terrymesmer
No.
its_happening
No to Votto but you defend Varsho. Ok….
iverbure
No he wouldn’t because he doesn’t solve any problems. Lacks power and a position
its_happening
14 bombs in 235 or so at bats is no power? Math too hard for you Iverbure? We know spelling is.
Then put Votto in the AL East and let me know he lacks power and doesn’t solve a problem. Camden and Yankee Stadium would fit nice with Votto.
Would I want Votto? No. But if you can justify Belt you can justify Votto.
iverbure
.202/.314/.433 .747ops 99ops+
Vs
.254/.369/.490 .858ops 136ops
Now who’s bad at math imbecile? If you think votto is an upgrade next year over what belt provided for the jays the conversation is over because you’re too stupid to talk with.
its_happening
“Lacks power”.
Your words.
If you had baseball intellect, you would have said, “can’t hit”. You didn’t because you don’t know baseball.
Votto on-pace for 30+ home runs in a full season. Yep, no power! Well done (again) IverIlliterate.
iverbure
What’s higher .433 or .490?
iverbure
What’s higher?
TennVol
Padres need a 1B to move Cronenworth off of and Jays need a left power hitter. Could a Guerrero for Soto trade be looked at? With other pieces moving as well. Vlad has to years and Soto 1yr left but Soto is the better player right now.
BlueJ’sAllDay
Straight up a good trade for both sides. Padres get an extra year of control and Jays get a better fit with a guy who can actually swing at strikes and influence the whole roster. 1 for 1 it’s pretty much even both ways considering Vlad has an extra year of control
Jaysfan1981
Easiest off-season solutions are.
Throw all the money at Bellinger as a FA.
Dangle Tiedemann in front of SD or STL for Soto or Arenado.
Let Schneider/Barger/Martinez/Horowitz have a shot at showing they belong.
Resign Hicks and let everyone else walk. Except a QO for Chapman. 1 year at 20 million is worth his glove, but no long term deals
gbs42
Those first two don’t seem easy at all.
Jaysfan1981
One of the richest teams in the league should be able to outbid the feild.
SD would probably jump at a package surrounding Tiedemann, as I’m sure STL would as well
Dustyslambchops23
Arenado was barely an average hitter last year and is going to be 33 and you want to trade the jays best pitching prospect for him?
Jaysfan1981
Yes
I want to win a championship in 2024.
Not 2029 when Tiedemann may or may not be winning Cy young
Prospects better than Tiedemann have flamed out.
Cash in on him and get what you need
Arenado is the best 3B, he comes signed for a few more years as well.
I’d only trade for Soto if Rogers is willing to pony up. Not just 1 year of him
Dustyslambchops23
Arenado was the 13th best 3B last year
And while he will probably get back to closer to the top of the list, his age, and salary don’t much any sense for the jays.
Trading Ricky T for him makes zero sense.
Jaysfan1981
Exaggeration by saying it makes zero sense especially after saying he’s likely to get back to his old numbers just makes you sound silly
Chapman unless qualified is gone.
Options? Unproven Schneider. Position change for Barger or singing Soler.
None of those are championship moves.
Arenado is a championship move. He’s going to be “great” for at least 2 maybe 3 more years then “good” for another year or two
Lines up actually perfectly with the timeline and makes alot of sense
Unless you have a crystal ball and can tell me Tiedemann is the next Randy Johnson.
vikingbluejay67
Wasn’t a championship move for the Cardinals.
Jaysfansince92
Have you seen Arenado’s contract? Jays would have no money left for anyone else. Plus the Jays would have to give up their best prospect. Arenado is a good player, but he no real surplus value with that contract.
JoeBrady
TO is #16 in total revenue. That’s where it starts.
its_happening
Dusty – Arenado is better than Chapman. That’s an upgrade. Tiedemann is the cost so be it. Jays are playing for 2024. Not 2026.
Bigbadvladdydaddy
The jays are rich, yes… but they are also constrained by the fact that every move they make impacts the stock price and shareholders/people on the board have to agree on making a signing. Cohen is worth more because it is Cohen and Cohen alone… hes not a publicly traded corporation like rogers is
JoeBrady
Most people don’t get this. Unless the corporation is closely owned, you can’t spend $300-400M just because you are a Jays fan.
its_happening
Who said $300-400 except you?
Gomez
Blue Jays revenue is immaterial to Rogers stock price. The entire company’s annual revenue is 13 billion while the jays portion of that is 300 million.
iverbure
Outbidding everyone for free agents is a good way to be stuck with a god awful contract
iverbure
The jays wouldn’t have to give up their best prospect, Arenado contract would actually require the cardinals to kick in money. Arenado would have to waive his no trade which is reason number 2 why the trade would never happen. He wanted to go to St. Louis he certainly doesn’t want to go to Toronto lol
Jaysfansince92
The point is to spend money wisely and spending 35 million a season and your best prospect for a guy who only put up 2.4 bWAR is not spending it wisely. Like it or not there is a budget set by people who are looking to make a profit. There is not an individual owner who can just decide to take a loss or reduced profit. The people setting that budget are accountable to Rogers shareholders, many of whom couldn’t care less whether or not the Jays win a world series. Atkins and Shapiro have to work with what they are given.
Jaysfansince92
I was just replying to his trade suggestion. I agree that he could most likely be had for less. If St. Louis picked up some of the contract and accepted a lower grade of prospect I could get on board with that. Just not the way he proposed it.
Yossi Ronnen
SD feels like 2023 was mostly bad luck (numbers kind of support that theory), so they may want to keep their offensive core and contend next year. Soto will probably be a trade deadline bait if they are out of contention mid next season.
Dustyslambchops23
None of what the jays do this offseason matters all that much if Kirk, Springer, Manoah and Vladdy can’t get back to some level of above average performance (compared to their highs)
The jays no longer have a depth or bullpen problem, there problem is an underachieving core and if that doesn’t improve then outside of adding Ohtani, they will continue to be a good not great team that fights for a WC spot and folds quickly in October
canajay12
Exactly. The roster is 90% there, they just need to figure out how to get these guys back where their career norms are (except George who’s kinda expected to decline at this point)
Dustyslambchops23
A 30 point drop in wrc+ is drastic even for springers age.
Across the board, the team struggled with pulling the ball for power. My guess is they need a new hitting coach and approach. Probably need better off-season routines for Vlad, Kirk and Manoah as well.
Jaysfan1981
I’d trade Springer for whatever we could get. Let Biggio play RF and leadoff
I bet his production would be close to his rookie numbers 250/400/400 with 20 HR
Dustyslambchops23
Lol you want to trade Springer but want to trade our top prospect for Arenado who effectively had the same year as Springer last year.
If you were the GM the jays would finish last every year
canajay12
For sure but he’s the one I don’t expect to be having career year type performances. Kirk and Vlad should be at or near career bests moving forward as they’re so young.
KamKid
It seems to be an organizational issue with half a dozen players with career lows in ISO with several of the others down from last year. They also had five qualified hitters in the top 50 in the league in swing rates. It’s as if they really bought in to the idea that the new rules were going to make BABIPS skyrocket and it would simply be good enough to put the ball in play. It’s a huge juxtaposition from the farm where there were a bunch of guys walking near as much as striking out. I don’t know if it’s more important to have your best development coaches in the majors or minors, but Matt Hague seemed to be doing well at reaching the players in Buffalo while the major leaguers looked confused and unsure of what their plan at the plate was.
BlueJ’sAllDay
I agree Arenado would be a great fit for the Jays. The likelihood of that happening is so slim it’s not really worth mentioning. St. Louis is looking to contend. Definitely wouldn’t have to give up Teidemann though. You’re really underestimating his value thinking that. More like a Manoah type deal after a rough season with the Cards throwing in a low level lottery pick and it might get it done.
its_happening
Jaysfan – Springer and package for Arenado and package. Start that convo. Walker or Gorman plays 3B. Cards need pitching which means parting with a SP or the Jays take on another contract do the Cards can sign a FA SP.
Ma4170
Not a Jays fan, but don’t they need a legitimate LH threat in their lineup? (not varsho, knew that was a mistake from the get go)
If theres a team that might trade for soto, the Jays seem to make sense if they truly think they can be WS contenders in 2024.
its_happening
Ma4170 – they need to fill holes and be better. If they get a lefty stick, great. But to get a lefty bat for the sake of a lefty bat put the Jays in a worse position despite a great effort by their pitching staff in 2023.
Tigers3232
Why would the Cards want to take on Springer’s contract if they were to move Arrenado? The only way I see them moving Arrenado is for salary relief. With the $5M COL pays of his contract he’ll b slightly more expensive than Springer next 2 seasons and cheaper in the 3rd season. He also is a year younger and more talented. Just makes zero sense for the Cards.
its_happening
You missed “package”.
Tigers3232
Package or not the same general premise stands. If they were to move Arrenado the driving force would be cost savings. Any package with Springer included would not provide any meaningful salary relief and would likely not improve them much. It makes zero sense from Cards side.
its_happening
Cards have two guys to play 3B and that opens an OF spot. If you want to know what doesn’t make sense, looking at the Tigers the last 7 years.
Jays would need to take more salary on than Arenado, thus giving up Springer to offset some of the cost. Again, package. There would be a second salary leaving St Louis for Toronto. Third time, package. Springer is your RF/DH and Walker plays 3B. Fills a need. Look toward Javier Baez if you want to know what does not make sense.
KamKid
It’s_happening, I can see how you could just add up a package of trade values and figure something out that is technically of equal value. But I’m with Tigers3232 in seeing the why if it for either team really. For one, the Cardinals have an outfield log jam as it is. Any trade of deficit value contracts is probably going to be with a focus on pitching as the return. There’s an argument the Cardinals could trade Arenado or Goldschmidt to accommodate Walker, but the culture of the organization isn’t one like the Rays. The Cardinals like to keep their cornerstone guys around. They chose Arenado not long ago and Arenado chose them by not opting out.
On the Jays’ side, why would they include Springer in a trade for Arenado? That would likely increase what you would have to give the Cardinals. Springer is owed a bunch of money for his age 34-36 seasons. To trade that, they’d have to attach something of positive value to make up the deficit. Or they pay Springer’s contract down, but then that is a huge investment in Arenado. I can think of many better ways to use money. I can’t really think of many examples where multiple years of the back ends of big contracts were swapped. Not on both sides of it. Arenado himself was traded but Colorado had to eat some of it to get anything in return. The Jays took on Tulo with some salary offsets but it wasn’t a straight big money for big money multiple years on the back end of contracts. Hmm, now that I think about it, the Rockies have been the ones successfully offloading big contracts. Bryant next?
If the two teams are going to make a challenge trade, I don’t think it will be with the big contract swaps, I think it could be more like the Moreno Varsho swap of young controllable need for need type of move. Walker for Tiedemann framework? Manoah for something maybe?
Tigers3232
Other than Arrenado and Contreas STL does not have many lengthy large contracts. And why would they want to move one of the best defensive 3B of all time to accommodate Walker defensively? There is no gain offensively with a deal headlined by Springer and it would be a huge setback defensively. It just makes no sense any way you try and spin it.
And yes The Baez signing was bad. Obviously someone(s) in Tigers organization believed that Baez shortcomings could be overcome. It appears they were absolutely wrong. He still has a horrible eye at the plate and swings way too often. Not sure what that has to do with STL though. They ve been a pretty well run organization other than making some bad trades in regards to OF prospects.
its_happening
Cards playing a guy out of position in Walker but lets “spin” defense while Springer can DH part-time in St Louis.
You forgot Goldschmidt is highly paid. So is Matz. Would they be part of a package to the Jays? Maybe. If they Cards received a pitcher in-return yes they’d deal Matz. For the 5th time, PACKAGE. The names begin with Arenado and Springer, build it from there. O’Neill is also up for grabs. Jays could use him in LF with Varsho’s .210 hitting jobber performance moving to CF. Would that mean a prospect heading to St Louis? Sure.
I find it very hard to believe a combo of Arenado-Matz for Springer and either Bassitt or Berrios would be a hard no for the Cardinals.
Tigers3232
Goldy is in last year of his contract. Matz has 2 yrs $12.5M each. Again no significant salary relief.
And I’m not “spinning” defense it is a reality when you bring up Arrenado. The man has 10 Gold Gloves and is one of best defensively ever at his position. It absolutely is part of the conversation if he’s being mentioned in any trade talks.
The current free agent class is extremely weak with position players, but pretty deep with starting pitching. Cards are not gonna deal Arrenado without gaining significant salary relief to load up on pitching. As they should not.
Again any trade that involved them taking significant longterm salary like Springer’s makes absolutely no sense for them. Package whatever you would like, they become worse offensively and defensively and gain no significant salary relief.
iverbure
They wouldn’t because it’s a dumb suggestion that ignores no trade clause.
its_happening
You forgot Varsho.
Ma4170
I had mentioned varsho, who is not a very good hitter other than some pop
iverbure
That seems to be lost on everyone. They had a great offseason hitting on nearly everything they did but the core all regressed on the lineup side.
its_happening
No they didn’t.
iverbure
Yeah they did that’s debatable by anyone who’s intelligent enough to know belts way better than votto.
its_happening
The simpletons (you) say they “hit” on everyone. Guys who exceeded expectations but did not match the level needed to be a legitimate World Series threat.
iverbure
The simpletons are you that’s not up for debate either. Your opinion is irrelevant. Been wrong too many times to count.
Old York
The strategy to draft sons of previous players hasn’t really panned out. Time to trade some of those pieces and rebuild.
Dustyslambchops23
They’ve won 89-92 games the last 3 years why would they rebuild, it’s a ridiculous idea.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
They just need better pitching. Berrios isn’t cutting it as a #1 or #2
Ma4170
Gausman is their clear ace.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
He’s their ace but I don’t think Gausman is an ace overall. He has had some struggles . I’d put him at a #2 overall.
Ma4170
Exactly.., he may not be good enough to be an ace, but he’s theirs
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Well actually, the last 4 seasons he has been impressive but still hasn’t eclipsed 200 innings once in his career.
Ma4170
I actually would love to have him on my team. At least he’s had 31+ starts each of those years.
terrymesmer
Better pitching? Jays had the #4 ERA in MLB, just 0.07 ERA behind #1.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
True, but how experienced are those pitchers and how much longevity do they have? There’s got to be a reason why they can’t win in the postseason, or the division for that matter.
its_happening
Gausman is an ace based on modern standards.
Tigers3232
They lost 3-1 and 2-0 in the WC round. Would not say pitching was their issue. I’ve heard it can be hard to win games scoring zero runs.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
But they’ve also lost important games leading up to the playoffs. They should have had around 95 wins with that roster and they underperformed. There were quite a few games leading into the playoffs where pitching was the problem.
Jaysfansince92
This year they just didn’t hit. Only scored 1 run in those 2 games. They only gave up 5 runs total for those 2 games. That should have been more than enough to win, but the bats did virtually nothing.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
It’s every year in the postseason.
iverbure
Just be quiet. You don’t even know what you’re talking about. Diagnosing their problems in the 7 post seasons you’ve watched.
Samuel
What the article points out is that the Jays have a lot of “holes to fill”.
No team wins anything much filling holes.
What is also points out is that the Jays don’t have a core, an identity, or team leaders that set the tone to play solid fundamental baseball game after game. The players aren’t committed to running the bases properly, playing defense properly, or moving up runners when hitting (a hallmark of Mark Shapiro teams). The manager is 2nd rate whose role by the front office appears to be valued less than most of their well-payed players. They don’t seem to have many quality prospects coming up. What they do have is what they’ve had for the last 3 years: more money to take on contracts of players whose teams have either allowed them to leave in free agency or will trade them – in both cases the players existing teams feel that they’re not worth the money on their existing contract or the one they’ll be seeking.
The Jays aren’t a team, and don’t play as one. They don’t have an identity other than that of a rotisserie league team – we look at the players stats and compare them to the stats of players from other teams. They’re a hodge-podge of primarily declining veteran players that came over because they got the best contract offers from the FO in free agency or were traded over as their previous teams were looking to shed salary.
GRE
Extremely Well Said….. It’s a mess and shapiro and atkins are CLOWNS ….
jimmertee
The BlueJays review and needs:
Vlad Jr,: needs to lose 30lbs to return to star form offensively and defensively.
Bo Bichette: Status quo. Still needs to work on his throwing.
Cavan Biggio: Status Quo
Santiago Espinal: capable of much more. quality depth. release/trade time?
Alejandro Kirk. He is what he is onward unless he loses 20-30 lbs. Jays traded the wrong catcher and I said the same at the time.
Danny Jansen: Keeper. Quality.
Matt Chapman. Defensive Savant. Weak hitter. Great closer if he’d do it.
Davis Schneider: HR power, Hunts fastballs, can’t hit changeup. Opposing teams have figured him out, so time will tell if he can adjust. Just passable defense.
Whit Merrifield: good ballplayer. slowly aging. Resign to lower rate contract.
Brandon Belt: Quality depth. Don’t resign. jays need to shoot higher for a DH.
George Springer: Great ballplayer but aging. Trade if jays go rebuild or keep if they try one more run at the division.
Dalton Varsho: Defensive guy, HR power, terrible eye at the plate. Pull happy.
Hyun Jin Ryu: resign at very low rate. Lost too much fastball. He’s gonna get hit hard as the long season goes on.
Erik Swanson, Romano, Richards, Mayza all quality.
Yimi Garcia: trade him if possible. Not worth the cash.
Chad Green: sign him.
Hicks: Quality but the Jays can’t afford him
Nate Pearson: totally misused by the Jays. One inning pitcher only.
Zack Pop: AAAA pitcher.
Génesis Cabrera: keeper, great job by Pete.
Manoah: get him in counselling now. He needs mental as well as physical help. He is not mature enough to be a major league pitcher.
That’s it for now.
coopercannon55
I created an account just to reply to this comment. I agree with all of this. I have believed Ryu should be brought back on a 1 yr deal at a much lower rate. He can still be an above average 5th SP.
With Manoah there is a story we don’t know yet. It just makes no sense a pitcher of his talent can just implode over night
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
That doesn’t sound like the regular Samuel who usually goes off in the comments. I think someone hijacked his account.
Astros Hot Takes
Quick note – If Astros get past the Rangers, 5 pennants in 7 years gets them into Yankee territory; Yankees have done that many times, and better than that; otherwise, I don’t think it’s been done by anybody else, since 1901 at least
KamKid
They don’t really have roster holes to fill. The players leaving pretty much have internal replacements already established or in the case of 3B is where a good chunk of the ready or close position player prospects play or profile.
What they have to do is figure out their offensive strategy as it seemed more systemic than simply coincidence that so many players underperformed in similar ways.
Samuel
KamKid;
The players leaving create holes to fill, whether they be done from the farm system or elsewhere.
Let me tell you about teams that “fill holes” each offseason – the following year other holes spring up. It’s an endless cycle. Once in a while they have a good year or two.
You are correct that there is a systemic problem with their offense. However, their defense wasn’t top rate, and their best defensive player – Chapman – will very probably be leaving. Their pitching is hardly top rate.
Mark Shapiro teams depend too much on analytics and don’t stretch, discipline, or develop their ML players demanding fundamental play. Cleveland turned the corner when Francona was brought on as manager and Shapiro was shortly thereafter kicked upstairs to the business area and told to stay away from the baseball part. No so in Toronto.
KamKid
Every team has players leaving. Sure, they lose some players with some skill, but they can make up for it around the diamond. Chapman was good defensively but not elite like he was in Oakland and he was awful offensively so you can probably find a balance there. Kiermaier was outstanding in CF but so was Varsho in his time there so moving Varsho to CF allows them to seek offense in the corner outfield. Belt was great but with his on base ability carrying the profile and being slow on the bases and being pretty much a DH only, it’s not the most difficult place to improve on. Merrifield was a qualified hitter this year and didn’t hit well and as a guy who is on base challenged ran into a ton of outs. Simply having anyone but him in the lineup gives them a bunch more outs to work with.
You say they weren’t good defensively, but while their individual defensive performances by the statcast metrics weren’t great, they were the best in the majors as a team by DRS which is more result based than skill based but that also means they are doing a good job of positioning players. I don’t see reason to believe that will change.
I’m not super optimistic that they are in a great position but it’s not because of the players leaving. That represents flexibility and an opportunity to get better. They have to look at their approach to offensive strategy though. That’s the biggest issue. There’s still real talent on the roster, they have to get more out of it we have seen every individual do that before, so it is in there.
Tigers3232
Chapman is the only real hole. Belt leaving is not going to leave a glaring hole. Kevin K not a hole either. Hicks and Jackson both pitched pretty well out of pen. I’m sure at least one of the 2 will be resigned.
All and all as long as they properly address 3B and address why the offense took a nosedive they should be alright. Their rotation did quite well.
With Ryu, Chapman, kiermier, and Belt that is $50M in salary coming off books.
terrymesmer
A lot of bland clichés. And then there is this:
>The players aren’t committed to…playing defense properly
Jays led MLB with 83 defensive runs saved.
Jaysfansince92
The Jays had the best DRS in the league. They play defense just fine. The team you describe would not have been able to play .500 ball much less make the playoffs. Do they have holes? Of course they do and there is definitely a lot of work to be done if they want to have any kind of a real playoff run. But they are not as bad you make them out to be.
GRE
Under shapiro and HIS CARRY ON BAGGAGE atkins, Jays are going NOWHERE …If You CAN’T HIT, No matter how defensive a team is, you still lose…I’ve been a Jays fan since Day 1, This current management has NEVER EVER BUILT an ELITE team…
Until shapiro and atkins are FIRED…WE GO Nowhere …
bigdaddyt
Easy solution. Trade everyone you can that had a net positive season. So the whole rotation, Bullpen, Bo, Jano, Springer keep Varsho, Vlad and Kirk to rebuild value. Bring Hicks back for rotation spot with Pearson, if it works it works if not who cars going for last place anyways. Bad for maybe 2 years hope guys build up value to trade off so that the next core can come up with 0 payroll commitments. Just imagine what Bo and that rotation would bring back prospect wise.
KamKid
The Jays have done well with helping some lefties. Ray, Matz, Kikuchi took a year but found success this year. Even in the minors, Tiedemann made almost immediate huge velo and other stuff gains once in the organization. However, with Cabrera, I don’t know if they did much of anything as he showed up with good stuff. They may have just moved him on the rubber to keep him in a certain lane or something simple like that.
KamKid
Meant to be a reply to DonOsbourne above.
jimmertee
The BlueJays review and needs:
Vlad Jr,: needs to lose 30lbs to return to star form offensively and defensively.
Bo Bichette: Status quo. Still needs to work on his throwing.
Cavan Biggio: Status Quo
Santiago Espinal: capable of much more. quality depth. release/trade time?
Alejandro Kirk. He is what he is onward unless he loses 20-30 lbs. Jays traded the wrong catcher and I said the same at the time.
Danny Jansen: Keeper. Quality.
Matt Chapman. Defensive Savant. Weak hitter. Great closer if he’d do it.
Davis Schneider: HR power, Hunts fastballs, can’t hit changeup. Opposing teams have figured him out, so time will tell if he can adjust. Just passable defense.
Whit Merrifield: good ballplayer. slowly aging. Resign to lower rate contract.
Brandon Belt: Quality depth. Don’t resign. jays need to shoot higher for a DH.
George Springer: Great ballplayer but aging. Trade if jays go rebuild or keep if they try one more run at the division.
Dalton Varsho: Defensive guy, HR power, terrible eye at the plate. Pull happy.
Hyun Jin Ryu: resign at very low rate. Lost too much fastball. He’s gonna get hit hard as the long season goes on.
Erik Swanson, Romano, Richards, Mayza all quality.
Yimi Garcia: trade him if possible. Not worth the cash.
Chad Green: sign him.
Hicks: Quality but the Jays can’t afford him
Nate Pearson: totally misused by the Jays. One inning pitcher only.
Zack Pop: AAAA pitcher.
Génesis Cabrera: keeper, great job by Pete.
Manoah: get him in counselling now. He needs mental as well as physical help. He is not mature enough to be a major league pitcher.
That’s it for now.
nosake
Agree on all the weight issues plus mental health counseling for Manoah.
pete toms
Atkins has been at least competent. Playoffs 3 of last 4 (91 wins the year they missed). Yes, they have cratered in the playoffs but we all know the mlb playoffs are a complete crapshoot
Samuel
“…but we all know the mlb playoffs are a complete crapshoot”
LOL
Not all of us. Just those that don’t understand the first thing about baseball.
Phillies manager Rob Thomson remarked the other day that the Phillies roster was built for the playoffs….and it has been for 2 years now.
MLB is a playoff league. A team only needs to get one of the 6 spots with their play during the season. Not a difficult thing to do as usually at least 7 of the 15 teams in each league are rebuilding, have suffered too many injuries to key players, or just plain stink. The playoff’s are the 2nd season – FO’s have to have the roster constructed properly, the manager and coaches have to have the players fine tuned and playing at their best, and the team has to peak as a unit going into them.
Go back to rotisserie league and console yourself with stats – the perfect way to make excuses.
terrymesmer
>“…but we all know the mlb playoffs are a complete crapshoot”
Four teams had 99 or more wins. No one else had more than 92. They went 1-11 in the playoffs, and are gone!
ATL, 104 wins: 1-3, eliminated in DS
BAL, 101 wins: 0-3, eliminated in DS
LAD, 100 wins: 0-3, eliminated in DS
TBR, 99 wins: 0-2, eliminated in WC
its_happening
What was your point?
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
OK that sounds like the good ol’ Samuel of old. Condescension laid on thick.
vtadave
yep playoffs still somewhat of a crapshoot though
iverbure
Yeah anyone with a brain knows the playoffs are a crapshoot.
Paleobros
Trade Varsho for Gurriel and Moreno.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Why do the Blue Jays always seem to symbolize the little engine that could. “I think I can, I think I can…”
Foxxfire
Why not Soler?
Foxxfire
I realize he’s unstable year to year but we seem to forget that Bellinger didn’t just look bad, he looked done.
I think Soler would cost less and be a lower risk move. The guy has the power we need and he won’t cost us a prospect.
Foxxfire
Maybe more as DH than LF as while I’m willing to downgrade a few dWAR for offense, I’m not sure i want a -1.5dWAR.
JoeBrady
Probably the career 1.1 bWAR per 650PAs.
Foxxfire
Varsho in CF creates more value for him as he is prime kiermaier quality. He needs to hit more, but honestly not a lot more. He’s prime Kiermaier CF d. we know that value. Having both Varsho and Kiermaier costs more money but given 2 offensive holes, one in LF is much worse than one in CF. I’d take Belt back in an instant if he doesn’t retire. He was our best. hitter.
Foxxfire
Ohtani would do a lot to clean up this toxic rot. I wonder if Canada is an angle that can be pitched, and make the biggest move in franchise history. Swing big. At least nobody blames you if it fails. Except Rogers.
BlueJ’sAllDay
They’re almost left needing to make a move like signing Ohtani. Between the money they’ve spent renovating the stadium to attract fans and how poorly management had been perceived following these playoffs, I feel like a major move to seriously contend now is the only move left for Mark and Ross. Signing Ohtani would create the type of hype this team needs to get to the next level. Make it happen Rogers
Jaysfansince92
Given the large Asian population in Toronto they could definitely get some of the money back with good marketing. He would be a perfect fit baseball wise. They need a true power hitter to step into the middle of the lineup and the fact that he is a lefty makes it an even better fit. Unfortunately Toronto never plays at the absolute top of the market, making it quite unlikely. Roger Clemens was probably the last time.
TennVol
Lots to do and to consider this offseason. Personally, I think Barger is ready to be the Jays 3B next year. Strong LH power hitting type that has a canon of an arm and can play 3B, 2B and SS when needed and has a good eye at the plate. He is better than Chapman at the plate and a slight step back in range but he has just as powerful an arm.
I would platoon Biggio and Schneider at 2B next year and either trade or release Espinal. Espy has given the Jays a few good years but was pretty bad last year.
Varsho should move to CF and let Keirmaeir find the grass stadium he desires. The Jays will get GG defense from Varsho and hopefully can work with him on his hitting to improve on his batting average and eye at the plate. He is a terrific baserunner and bunter and he will fit in well at CF for the Jays for the next 3yrs+.
LF is the position where the Jays can really invest in for a strong offensive talent that can play at least competently in the field. The Jays were the best defensive team in the league this year, which greatly helped the pitching stats, and it would be good to try and maintain a level of excellence close to that.
JoeBrady
his MVP-level numbers in 2021
===========================
He wasn’t close to MVP caliber in 2021. His numbers were enormously impacted by having 162 ABs in minor league parks. Take away Sahlen and TD, and he would have 27 HRs (36/600 ABs) and a ..292 average.
Those are fine numbers, but for a weak-fielding 1B, not close to MVP numbers.
its_happening
Jays need to spend beyond the threshold because rebuilding is not an option.
Vlad needs to lose 20 pounds, Kirk 40, Manoah about 30. Jays need a 3B and an OF or two. Springer might need to DH. Varsho is not the answer as he is not a capable hitter. Ignore his WAR because it implies his value is too big to bench. Realists know that’s false. Jays need a RH bat to spell Varsho.
GRE
Did Ya’ see that shapiro ??? Marlins part ways with GM Kim Ng…… You NEED TO RESIGN and TAKE YOUR BAGGAGE USELESS atkins WITH YOU !!! DO THE RIGHT THING !!!!