The American League featured seven good teams in 2023, but with only six playoff spots, one of them had to be heartbroken. In the end, it was the Mariners, who couldn’t get back to the postseason after breaking their drought the year before. The good news is that most of the roster is sticking around for another shot at it, with plenty of payroll space for offseason additions.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Julio Rodríguez, OF: $190MM through 2034 (can increase based on All-Star selections and awards voting; club has multi-year option after 2028, player has opt-out after 2029)
- Luis Castillo, RHP: $91MM through 2027 (includes conditional club/vesting option for 2028)
- Robbie Ray, LHP: $73MM through 2026 (includes opt-out after ’24)
- J.P. Crawford, SS: $31MM through 2026
- Evan White, 1B: $17MM through 2025 (includes buyout on ’26 option; club also has options for 27-28)
- Eugenio Suárez, 3B: $13MM through 2024 (includes buyout of ’25 club option)
- Marco Gonzales, LHP: $12MM through 2024 (club has ’25 option with no buyout)
- Dylan Moore, IF/OF: $6.625MM through 2025
- Andrés Muñoz, RHP: $4.5MM through 2025 (club has 26-28 options with no buyouts)
Option Decisions
- None
Other Financial Commitments
- None
2024 financial commitments: $102.8MM
Total future commitments: $459.125MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ty France (4.089): $7.2MM
- Luis Torrens (3.155): $1.3MM
- Trent Thornton (3.148): $1.4MM
- Josh Rojas (3.126): $3.5MM
- Sam Haggerty (3.044): $800K
- Justin Topa (3.044): $1.5MM
- Mike Ford (3.008): $1.5MM
- Logan Gilbert (2.144): $4.9MM
Non-tender candidates: Torrens, Thornton, Rojas
Free Agents
The Mariners broke a 20-year playoff drought in 2022, winning 90 games and getting a Wild Card spot. They ran it back with a fairly similar roster in 2023 but regressed slightly to 88 wins. That was enough for them to miss the playoffs by just one game, getting eliminated in the final weekend of the season.
The good news is that the many of the same ingredients will remain on the roster with a small number of departing free agents, putting them in good position to compete again in 2024. Their best asset in 2023 was run prevention, as only the Brewers and Padres allowed fewer than the 659 runs Seattle surrendered. They did that in spite of losing Robbie Ray to Tommy John surgery early in the season, with rookies stepping up to fill the void.
Ray is currently expected back around the All-Star break, but the rotation looks to be in good shape without him. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock and Marco Gonzales give the club seven viable rotation options. Gonzales was injured for much of 2023 but made 32 starts the year before with a 4.13 ERA. Each of Miller, Woo and Hancock debuted this year with solid results, all of them posting an earned run average between 4.20 and 4.50. They each have options and can be kept in the minors if the club wants to preserve depth and manage their innings.
It’s possible that there are enough arms here that the club considers trading from this pile for offense. But they were in a similar situation last year and ended up hanging onto all of their starters. Since pitching injuries are fairly inevitable and eventually came to pass for Ray and Gonzales, the club is probably glad they picked that path and may do so again. But if they take a different tack this time, they would surely find plenty of interest. The Cardinals are just one of many clubs looking for starting pitching and have already been connected to Gilbert, but it’s unclear if the Mariners are interested in such a path.
In the bullpen, despite recent trades of Erik Swanson and Paul Sewald, there are still plenty of excellent pieces in place. Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash and Justin Topa each posted an ERA of 3.06 or lower this year, with solid contributions from Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo and others as well. The aforementioned trades of Swanson and Sewald show the club is not afraid of dealing from the bullpen to address other areas, but the midseason Sewald deal may have rubbed some the wrong way. Since that has echoes of the Kendall Graveman trade of years past, perhaps the club will opt for holding onto their relievers for now.
Whether it’s through trade or free agency, adding thump to the lineup figures to be a priority for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander this winter. Their 758 runs scored in 2023 was 12th in the majors, behind most other postseason clubs. Part of that is due to their pitching-friendly home ballpark but wRC+, which controls for such things, had them ninth. Teoscar Hernández had a down year relative to his own standards but his departure for free agency nonetheless increases the challenge of upgrading the offense.
The catcher position won’t be a high priority, as Cal Raleigh has emerged as one of the best power-hitting backstops in the league. Tom Murphy reaching free agency creates a bit of a hole at the backup spot, with Luis Torrens and Brian O’Keefe on hand to replace him. Bringing back Murphy or another veteran could be on the to-do list, though that’s likely not going to be where the club prioritizes adding offense. Even glove-first options like Luke Maile or Austin Hedges would be fine here.
On the infield, J.P. Crawford took a big step forward at shortstop but second base was a black hole. The club’s flier on Kolten Wong was disastrous, as he hit just .165/.241/.227 for the M’s. He got released and the club rotated Josh Rojas, Dylan Moore and José Caballero through the spot down the stretch. This is one clear spot where the club could look for upgrades but the free agent class isn’t strong, with Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier the headliners. None of those guys are likely to replace the production of the departing Hernandez but it would be hard for them to be worse than Wong. The trade market could offer Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India or Brendan Donovan, though it’s unclear how willing their respective clubs would be to make them available in offseason talks.
At the corners, Eugenio Suárez had a bit of a down year but it doesn’t seem to be too much cause for concern. His batting average and on-base percentage were close to his numbers from the year before, but his homers dropped from 31 to 22, which pushed his wRC+ down from 130 to 102. His hard hit rates were very similar from year to year yet his rate of fly balls leaving the yard dropped from 19.3% to 12.9%. Since he’s still under contract, it seems fair to expect the M’s will keep him at the hot corner and hope for better luck next year.
It’s a similar story at the other corner, with Ty France also experiencing a power dip as his hard hit rate and exit velocity stayed fairly steady. He hit just 12 home runs in 2023 after launching 20 the year before, causing his wRC+ to drop from 125 to 104. He’ll be due a raise to $7.2MM via arbitration, which will be good value if his luck turns next year. Mike Ford struck out in 32.3% of his plate appearances but also popped 16 homers in just 251 plate appearances. He’ll be due an arbitration raise but to barely above the league minimum, which should prompt the M’s to keep him around at least as a bench bat.
In the outfield, Julio Rodríguez is the anchor up the middle but both corners are now question marks. In left field, Jarred Kelenic was above-average overall but struck out in 31.7% of his plate appearances. Cade Marlowe had similar results in a small sample size. Dominic Canzone crushed a few balls but had an OBP of .258 thanks to a low walk rate and BABIP.
Kelenic probably did enough to earn a job next year, but Hernández will need to be replaced, meaning the club should add at least one corner outfielder. Hernández himself is the top of the class, but it’s possible the M’s let him walk in order to collect a draft pick after he rejects a qualifying offer. He’s coming off a down year and could consider accepting, but it’s a weak group of free agent hitters overall, which should nudge him towards the open market. Beyond him, the best options are players like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham, with Michael Conforto and Jorge Soler perhaps opting out of their deals. Any of those would be a good fit in Seattle, though it’s debatable whether any of them are clear upgrades over Hernández.
There’s also Cody Bellinger, who is the clear top outfield option overall. He won’t supplant Rodríguez in center but the M’s could theoretically sign him and move him to a corner spot. But since his ability to play above-average defense in center is part of his appeal, they could be outbid by a team with a cleaner roster fit.
Of course, the best way for the club to upgrade their lineup would be to sign Shohei Ohtani, though it’s tough to say how likely that is. Even though he won’t pitch in 2024, he figures to get a record-setting contract based on his elite hitting and the potential of returning to the mound in 2025. The Mariners have been seen as a potential Ohtani landing spot, given his supposed preference for a West Coast team and to play for a contender.
The Mariners fit on both counts and also have arguably the strongest legacy of using Japanese players. A lot of that is due to the legendary status of Ichiro Suzuki, but they have also had Yusei Kikuchi, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Nori Aoki, Hisashi Iwakuma and many others on their roster at various times throughout the years. That could have some degree of importance to Ohtani, but it would likely be supplementary to the primary concerns of the financials and the winning culture.
Speaking of the money, the Mariners are in a decent place there with barely over $100MM committed for 2024. That doesn’t include the arbitration class, but that only projects to add about $15-20MM, depending on who is tendered a contract. They had an Opening Day payroll over $137MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but were in the $150-160MM range prior to the pandemic. It seems fair to assume they would happily spend at that level again if it meant bringing Ohtani aboard, considering both his talents and the international marketing opportunities.
But they certainly won’t be the only team with a strong willingness to fit Ohtani onto the roster. The Dodgers can market themselves with a greater track record of winning than the Mariners, and also have higher spending capacity. Other clubs like the Giants, Angels, Rangers and Mets could all be argued to be sensible fits as well.
It’s possible that the offseason of the Mariners, and maybe the entire league, will start out slowly as the Ohtani situation plays out. There are many clubs that will have Ohtani as Plan A and everything else as Plan B. This applies to the Mariners perhaps as much as any other club.
That leaves open two distinct forks in the road ahead. On one path, the Mariners get Ohtani, who immediately gives them the lineup upgrade they need and creates a positive energy around the future of the club. Or they don’t get Ohtani and are looking to spread their money around to some combination of Bellinger, Hernández, Merrifield, Gurriel, Conforto, Frazier, Torres or Soler. One path is obviously more exciting than the other, but both should lead the club to a good place next year. Competing with the Astros and Rangers won’t be easy, but everything is in place for another three-team showdown in the West next year.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Mariners-specific chat on 10-13-23. Click here to view the transcript.
Fred Park
I don’t think the Mariners should go after another “big bat”.
Maybe it’s just me, but I think they only need the extra year of maturity in the players they already have.
Hemlock
A healthy Robbie Ray will help, too. Yeah, they probably don’t need him but more pitching can only help. See the Atlanta Braves and LA Dodgers for proof.
bloomquist4hof
There’s rarely too much pitching and if they do end up with that it gives them a way to improve at the deadline.
myaccount2
I understand this perspective, Fred, but I do think it’s incredibly risky to put all our eggs in the development basket. I’m not sure a “big bat” is the answer either, but I would like to see a competent starter (Whit Merrifield?) added so that two of Rojas, Caballero, and Moore aren’t in the lineup every single day. Someone like Whit also wouldn’t block Cole Young or Colt Emerson by the time they’re ready.
The Natural
Yeah…i love Cal Raleigh, but what is he talking about? Seattle shelled out big time for Castillo and Ray. They need more firepower, but not to the extent he was alluding to..
bloomquist4hof
What they need is better options at a few spots spots. Corner OF, 2B, DH and are all obvious places they can improve. I think the idea they need a big bat is overstated, someone could be a not so big bat but a better player whether its offensively or defensively would probably be good. Getting actual stars is the most likely way to put them over the top at this point. Im not sure this offseason is the best one to be fishing for stars though and if they could get above average options at OF and 2B and fill a few holes like figure out backup catcher, find a couple relievers to fill out the pen and get someone who can make DH less of a blackhole that could work. I am not against trading a starter but only if they replace the person they trade. So if they trade Miller or Woo for some of that help, I think they would need to go get a starter in FA of equal or better projection. The easiest way for them to improve is to spend I feel. This trading away talent to get talent approach limits how much talent is added to the roster. If they don’t open their wallets a little it will be disappointing, to me at least.
Ben10
Dipoto has stated his priority is to bring back Murphy this offseason. So I’m not worried about Tom not being here in the least.
ayrbhoy
Yes- Murphy will almost certainly be a priority for Dipoto. If Murphy can continue to hit well when healthy thats icing on the cake- its Murphy’s veteran leadership and clubhouse presence among so many young players that makes him so valuable. He has also shown an ability to handle the many different styles and personalities of the Pitching Staff.
Ma4170
I think they need a couple of bats. I dont think crawford will be much better than he was this year, and it will prob end up being his career year. France i think isnt as bad as he was this year, but i wouldnt expect much more. If kelenic can take a big step forward, that would help. And even though teoscar wasnt great, theyll have to replace his production.
bloomquist4hof
Kelenic is a huge wild card. There’s still tools to be an above average player but I wouldn’t rely on that. If he shaved his strikeout rate or improved hia walk rate some and hit more deep flyballs he could still be a good bat and it’s not out of line for a player his age to make those improvements. I’m not against keeping him, as long as they add other options for OF or trading him as long as they replace him adequately and the trade isnt a give away.
CoachClay
Depending on what happens with Teo I would like to see a @B and Corner Outfield with high contact/low K rates and good OBP
CoachClay
*2B
acoss13
Mariners should hang onto their surplus of pitchers, Ray is coming back but he’ll be coming back from TJS, and there’s always an adjustment period even after a rehab assignment. You can never have enough pitching, it’s too valuable to trade away, the bats are there run it back again.
FudaFut
Th bats are 100% not there. Under no circumstance should a playoff caliber team have a Sam Haggerty type player hitting DH and 9th in the order.
ohyeadam
Ohtani fits too well on this team for them to not make an honest effort o sign him. They don’t need a starter next year and they really need some offense. They’ve got the payroll space for him too
aragon
LMAORO!
Stevil
Haggerty had 21 PAs as a DH and had a .429 OBP.
He’s an excellent role player facing LHPs, giving Seattle positional flexibility and speed off the bench.
Seattle’s offensive woes start with the Ks and lack of power outside of July and August.
FudaFut
So he is a poor man’s Dylan Moore? Regardless of OBP, how many other teams DH ever bat 9th?
Stevil
How many people would declare a role player with 5 games at DH as their DH?
You completely missed the point.
Fred Park
My earlier comment is getting all kinds of intelligent consideration by some sharp commenters
I just love seeing that.
Because, although I mean what I say, I never for a moment think I know all the answers.
So the load is on the front office to determine what players we field in 2024. Hopefully they’ll get it right.
Go Mariners!
myaccount2
I love how even-keeled you are as a commenter. Never too high or too low–always commenting and replying with your honest opinion dictated by logic instead of emotion. I respect that!
Fred Park
Likewise, myaccount2.
DarkSide830
Dylan Moore just STEALING money out here.
myaccount2
I disagree. That was a great extension. He brings tons of value as a versatile player who is elite defensively at 2B, very good in LF, average in RF, as well as at 3B and 1B, and can play SS competently enough in a pinch. He has just enough pop and eye to be a worthwhile supersub at the plate and is fantastic on the basepaths. I think 3 yrs for $9.5M or whatever decimal was shrewd.
shyzer
He’s a super utility, league average bat – with a little pop and a bit of speed – who can competently field 7 different positions. He shouldn’t be the starter at any position, but he’s a bargain at his current salary and only takes up one valuable roster slot.
antsmith7
They don’t spend any money on position player free agents. They’ll probably trade for someone, but I doubt it will be a big name.
bloomquist4hof
The only eay that works is if they deplete what is left of the farm system or weaken another roster spot. Trading MLB talent for MLB talent probably wont help. They do have some tradable assets in the minors but it is limited and they should try and let as many of those guys mature as possible if they’re serious about being a perennial contender.
Bookbook
It should be interesting. The farm system is underrated, but I have seen Young, Ford, Gabriel Gonzalez, Colt Emerson, Locklear, Bliss and Clase listed in some folks’ top 100 lists.. Seven isn’t bad.
billdoran
See if they can pry India from the Reds for Woo
myaccount2
I would pass on this. Woo is too valuable to give up for a guy who isn’t much of an upgrade over in-house options, plus you can never have too much pitching (as evidenced by season-ending injuries to Ray, Marco, and Hancock).
bloomquist4hof
Theres a few 2B they could target if they want to trade Woo. IIRC they have asked too much for India up to this point.
Armaments216
Woo is too much but India could be a good get to plug in at 2B. Plus I believe India came up at 3B in the minors so he’d also be a backup/successor to Geno if need be.
Big whiffa
Hancock for india prob gets it done
Stevil
Rojas was worth almost exactly the same in fWAR in 2 months as India was all season for Cincinnati. He’s a better defender and had a higher wRC+ for Seattle.
Why would they trade their most promising young starter for a downgrade at 2B?
dsals214
Gosh you must hate it when the team follows up the release of an off-season preview by completely changing the plan and acquiring a player like Kaleb Ort.
good vibes only
Be very interesting to see what happens this offseason. I think the market is gonna be on ice til Shohei gets sorted. Would love to see a poll of what Mariners fans expect this FO to spend this offseason. I think we need a major lineup upgrade. I’m not optimistic JD can get that done. At least 2 plus bats acquired somehow. Texas is a freaking Death Star right now.
mostlytoasty
With Rojas heading into just his 2nd arb year, I’d say he’s probably the favorite to lock down the bulk of reps at 2B unless they make a splash in a trade.. In the last three years, he’s basically only had one bad stretch, which was the first half of this year in Arizona. He looked much more like his usual self with Seattle, hitting .272/.321/.400. He’s not a world beater by any stretch, but he could be like a 10-15 HR bat with 20+ SBs and a .725+ OPS.
Unless they’re bringing in India or Torres via trade, that slash line isn’t going to be terribly different than most of the middling FA options (in fact, his OPS+ in Seattle was better than any of the 3 FA options listed in the article). If I’m Seattle I’d be more worried about getting a good corner OF, retaining the bulk of the pitching, and hoping the younger guys continue to develop.
pleasantflavor
The quest for offense!
Will it come at the expense of money (hopefully? Or from the surplus of pitching? Both?
RF/DH – Would love to see them sign Teo, mostly because I would hate the task of filling his RF/DH slot piled on top of the already hefty list of holes needing to be addressed.
1B/DH – A signing of Rhys Hoskins or trade for Yandy Diaz in a 1B/DH rotation with France, Teo, etc. could provide some consistency. I just don’t see the FO going hard after Bellinger.
Backup C – Re-Sign Tom Murphy!
2B – Merrifield, Amed Rosario, Tim Anderson, India, Gleyber, Cronenworth?
Trade Miller for Jazz? Or is Ryan Bliss ready?
hoof hearted
Anderson-where did the power go?
Torres-expensive in prospects
Croneworth-signed an extension
Indie-D underpar
Rosario-not so sure he’s much of upgrade. 1 real good year
Troy Percival's iPad
I got $5 on Evan White recovering from hip surgery enough to make the All-Star Team
It would solve the Mariners’ DH/1B problem and put a few thousand dollars in my pocket
Slothcliff Hokum
I’d love to see them replace Teoscar Hernandez (211 strikeouts, .305 OBP) and Eugenio Suarez (214 strikeouts). And a better solution is needed for second base than Moore/Haggerty/Rojas/Caballero. First base is a position for stashing a guy with power, and Ty France fell off a cliff this year (0.7 WAR and .703 OPS). My asbestos suit is on: Let Hernandez walk. Trade France and Suarez for whatever they can get. Sign Blake Snell, then trade Luis Castillo to SD for a year of Juan Soto, and extend Soto. Acquire a bona fide closer for the bullpen. Kick the tires on Alonso and Donovan, with the latter as priority… if worse came to worst, they could do something like keeping France and Rojas and batting them 8-9, and maybe France could rediscover his bat. While some or all of that probably won’t happen, they have a nice window of opportunity right now, and if they want to catch or surpass the Astros and Rangers, standing pat or making sideways moves should be out of the question.
hoof hearted
Less k’s
AlienBob
Boras is absolutely going to take Juan Soto to free agency next year. The M’s will be in a bidding war whether he is on their roster or not. Might as well wait a year. I would rather they went after Cody Bellinger this year.
stymeedone
Other than a few players at the top of the market, there is nothing to open the wallet for. What would you spend it on? Overpay for Merrifield or Frazier?
bloomquist4hof
There’s the trade route. They could leverage underwater contracts/take on money. There’s a few teams looking to pare down salary. There’s creative ways to buy talent
bloomquist4hof
Also they could trade cost controlled pitching for a blocked hitter and replace that player via free agency
Big whiffa
Soto.
Gilbert/woo/suarez for soto. Pads can’t pass that up
hoof hearted
1 year of soto?
Ma4170
I think too much for one year of soto
Geebs
i did not realize how clean seattles books were, wow, lotsa elbow room to do almost anything they want.
Big whiffa
Right. A 17 million dollar waste on white isn’t bad in this day and age of bad contracts !
slider32
The Mariners still haven’t won the world series, they regressed a little this year. I’m not sure why they moved Sewald and Swanson this year. They are close, and need to continue to look to try and improve this team.
myaccount2
They move relievers because they find other relievers off the scrap heap and completely fix them. They just use them to churn value and try to solve problems elsewhere.
cdouglas24000
There are multiple holes that can all be filled just this season. For free agency the big dog as a hitter is bellinger. Give him a 5 year deal with opt out after 2. He’s our RF & #3 hitter. Matt Moore on a 2 year deal to be our signature lefty RP that gets lefties. For 2B I like the trade venue with SD for Kim. He takes pitches and is tough to strike out. Woo & a back end 20 prosepct for him straight up. JD Martinez as our DH on 1 year deal with mutual option after season. Seth Lugo on a 3 year deal to SP. Cant rely on RAY till mid July so you roll with Castillo, kirby, Gilbert, Miller, & Lugo. A lineup of Crawford ss, Kim 2b , Belly rf, julio cf, JD dh, big Cal c , eugenio 3b, France 1b, kelenic RF. Now that’s a legit lineup that rivals rangers & astros
deepseamonster32
Rojas/Caballero/Moore is good enough for 2nd base.
I’d like to see them sign a top starting pitcher and then trade Woo or Miller to Cincinnati for a bat. I know they have them. Don’t know which guy they have that could play 1B and the corner OF. But there’s gotta be one and M’s are trade friends with Reds.
Oh and also, sign the best DH available
hoof hearted
The amount of money coming off the books for seattle is small compared to some other teams, so other teams have a lot more money.
HBan22
Ohtani just makes too much sense for this team. They are my pick to sign him, even if they’re seen as a bit of an underdog as of now.
Stevil
It’s hard for me to believe that Seattle’s ownership & FO have done enough to convince him that Seattle will do what it takes to become legitimate World Series contenders. They’re not just an Ohtani away from the promised land. They have a glaring hole in RF, a real need for a closer and there’s a strong argument for upgrades at the infield corners. They blew opportunities to push themselves over the top two years in a row.
Ohtani should be interested in Arizona. They’re young with more talent on the way and lots of payroll flexibility to field a sustainable WS contender.
marinerfan
I’d love to know what happened to France this season. Very inconsistent. Should he be trade bait?
solaris602
I suggested in another thread that SEA matches up really well on a trade with CLE: France straight up for Emmanuel Clase. Lest anyone think that’s an overpay on the part of the Guardians, Clase had 12 blown saves this year. Both players had a shaky year for the most part.
marinersblue96
I only saw Gilbert to the Cardinals from St. Louis media, never from the local Seattle media(his name was never brought up as a possibility to any team). It would take a huge package including major league ready players.
Baseline would be Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn and another couple of prospects in their 15 to 20 range. Cardinals just don’t deal those type of players and that is what it would take to pry Gilbert who would instantly would be their #1 SP.
rightwingrick
San Diego is trying to drop $50 million in salary. Trade Soto and Ha-Seong Kim to Seattle for SP Bryce Miller, RP Justin Topa, 2b Josh Rojas, OF J. Kelenic, utility player Dylan Moore, and #10 prospect Tai Peete.
Then Seattle signs Ohtani.
Playoffs and good shot at World Series.