Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

The A’s spent the 2023 season more focused on relocating from Oakland to Las Vegas than on attempting to compete. They’ll finish with one of the six worst records of any team in the past 20 seasons. It’ll be another bleak offseason for a fan base that feels betrayed by ownership and has little to look forward to before the team’s likely departure.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Aledmys Diaz, INF/OF: $8MM through 2024

Option Decisions

• Drew Rucinski, RHP: $5MM club option (no buyout)

Other Financial Commitments

• $2MM owed to D-backs as part of July’s Jace Peterson trade

Total 2024 commitments: $10MM

Total long-term commitments: $10MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

• Sean Newcomb
• Austin Pruitt
• Paul Blackburn
• Carlos Perez
• Yacksel Rios
• James Kaprielian
• Seth Brown

Non-Tender Candidates: Newcomb, Pruitt, Perez, Rios

Free Agents

• Trevor May, Tony Kemp

Just as A’s brass has spent much of the past year focused on their attempted relocation to Las Vegas, the forthcoming offseason will further center around that move. The other 29 owners will vote on the Athletics’ move to Vegas between Nov. 14-16 — a vote that needs 75% approval and is widely expected to pass with little to no issue. The A’s will then turn their attention to securing funding, formalizing vendor contracts and other steps necessary to begin construction of their reported Las Vegas ballpark, with an eye toward finalizing the move in 2027. The A’s could share Oracle Park with the Giants from 2025 until the new facility is built. At this point, ownership is intent on moving away from the team’s longtime home. Any fans clinging to hope of some kind of sale of the team and reversal of course had those hopes dashed last month when chairman John Fisher plainly indicated he has no interest in selling the club.

All the while, the on-field product has suffered. The Athletics have been “rebuilding” for the past two years, though there’s virtually no Major League talent that’s been established despite trading away the core of a team that won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019, won the AL West in the shortened 2020 season (36-24) and won 86 games in 2021.

Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Sean Murphy, Lou Trivino, A.J. Puk, Cole Irvin and Sam Moll have all been traded. The only fruits of those trades to blossom at the MLB level so far have been lefty JP Sears (4.54 ERA in a team-leading 172 1/3 innings this season) and outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who lead the AL with 67 steals but batted just .254/.309/.345. Catcher Shea Langeliers popped 22 home runs and played strong defense in his first full MLB season, but his overall .205/.368/.413 batting line was well shy of even the league average. Arguably the best player to come out of the rebuild has been first baseman Ryan Noda, whom the A’s selected in last December’s Rule 5 Draft.

Had the A’s focused solely on lower-minors talent as part of this rebuilding effort, perhaps the lack of MLB contributors would be explainable. That hasn’t been the case. The A’s have largely targeted players in the upper minors. That strategy has worked for them in the past, but the collection of Kyle Muller, Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, Cristian Pache, Joey Estes, Kevin Smith, Adam Oller, Adrian Martinez, Zach Logue and Kirby Snead has generally struggled in the Majors. Pache, Oller and Logue aren’t even in the organization anymore. Pache was traded to the Phillies for minor league reliever Billy Sullivan, who walked 52 hitters in 57 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. Oller and Logue were lost on waivers after being designated for assignment.

The A’s have four players on Baseball America’s top 100 list at the moment, but none of the four were acquired from the slate of trades that constitute the current rebuild. Darell Hernaiz, acquired from the Orioles for Irvin and ranked ninth among Oakland prospects at both Baseball America and MLB.com, is the top-ranked yet-to-debut talent produced by the rebuild. BA ranked Oakland’s farm system 24th among the sport’s 30 teams in mid-August. MLB.com ranked them 26th. For a team that’s torn down an entire perennial contender via a series of aggressive trades netting largely upper-level minor league talent, the results should be unacceptable.

Some of the fire sale continued on over the summer, with Moll going to the Reds and offseason signees Shintaro Fujinami (Orioles) and Jace Peterson (D-backs) also being shipped out. Had Oakland’s other offseason veteran pickups — Trevor May (free agent), Aledmys Diaz (free agent), Jesus Aguilar (free agent) and Manny Pina (Murphy trade) — performed better, they’d surely have been shipped out, too. Things didn’t play out that way. Aguilar and Pina were both released over the summer. Diaz had the worst season of his career and is signed through 2024. May rebounded after spending time on the IL with anxiety early in the year but is now a free agent.

The long-running sale could continue this winter. However, because the A’s haven’t developed much talent or signed anyone who’s been particularly productive, they’re running low on names to dangle.

Right-hander Paul Blackburn posted a mid-4.00s ERA but with a more frequently used slider and uptick in velocity that helped him turn in a career-high strikeout rate. With two years of club control remaining and an arbitration trade looming, there’s a very good chance he’ll be moved, even if the return won’t be franchise-altering. First baseman/outfielder Seth Brown had a terrible first half but posted a more respectable .235/.301/.432 slash from July onward. Brown swatted 25 homers with the ’22 A’s and has shown good power against right-handed pitching in his career (.237/.305/.471, .234 ISO). A team looking for an affordable lefty half of a first base/outfield platoon could show interest. Again, the return wouldn’t be all that strong.

Aside from that pairing, there aren’t many obvious trade candidates. Brent Rooker, 29 in November, had a breakout year after being picked up off waivers, though it was a wildly uneven season overall. He was one of the best hitters on the planet in April, excellent in July and September, roughly average in August, and well below average in both May and June. On the whole, he hit .246/.329/.488 with 30 home runs but a 32.7% strikeout rate and shaky defense in the outfield corners. A 30-homer bat with four years of club control remaining could draw interest though, and the A’s aren’t in position to turn away interest on anyone who’s exhausted multiple years of team control.

With virtually nothing in the way of established talent on the roster, it should come as no surprise to hear that the Athletics’ payroll is practically blank. Diaz’s $8MM salary is the only guaranteed contract for a player still on the roster. The A’s will also send $2MM to the D-backs as part of the Peterson trade. Their arb class consists of more non-tender candidates than locks to return, and the players to whom they do tender contracts (e.g. Blackburn, Brown) could well be traded.

That should set the stage for some degree of free agent spending, although as last offseason showed, it’s not really something for A’s fans to get excited about. Oakland isn’t going to commit the necessary resources to any productive, big-name free agents. Even most free agents in the second, third and fourth tiers of the market will likely have little interest in signing on for what is assured to be a non-competitive season played in front of even more sparse crowds than usual. Those same factors led to a 2022-23 slate of signings that was comprised of utilitymen for whom they probably overpaid (Diaz, Peterson) and injury/NPB/KBO rolls of the dice (May, Fujinami, Aguilar, Drew Rucinski).

Assuming more of the same this winter, the market has several rebound hopefuls who can play multiple positions — thus accommodating the Athletics’ general lack of established position players — who can likely be signed at a low cost. Names like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Paul DeJong, Brian Anderson, Adam Frazier, Eduardo Escobar and old friend Joey Wendle all come to mind. On the pitching side of things, names like Jake Odorizzi, Julio Teheran and Martin Perez could be in Oakland’s price range.

As bleak as things look in Oakland, there are a few spots on the diamond where they appear largely set. Noda had a tough finish to the season but still wound up with a .229/.364/.406 batting line and 16 home runs in 495 plate appearances. He’s not going to hit for much average with a 34.3% strikeout rate, but his massive 15.6% walk rate and above-average power will keep him productive enough to remain in the lineup (and give him a very vintage “Moneyball” Athletics vibe).

At second base, former second-rounder Zack Gelof debuted and turned in one of the strongest showings of any American League rookie in 2023. His performance might’ve gone largely under the radar, given that it came in just 69 games for a historically bad A’s team, but he slashed .267/.337/.504 with 14 home runs, 20 doubles, a triple and 14 steals in 300 plate appearances. Strikeouts are a concern (27.3%), but Gelof walks, hits for power, runs well and played good defense. He has the look of a clearly above-average regular and was far and away the brightest spot on this year’s team. He’s controlled for six more seasons.

Behind the plate, Oakland will likely give another look to Langeliers, whose glove and power are MLB-caliber but whose hit tool was lacking. Langeliers chased off the plate far too often and popped the ball up to the infield way too often when he did make contact (27 times). He still maintained strong exit velocity and hard-hit rates despite that penchant for harmless pop flies, but his work at the dish remains a work in progress. Fellow backstop Tyler Soderstrom is one of the sport’s top offensive prospects but struggled on both sides of the ball. An inexpensive free agent could join this mix.

In the outfield, Ruiz will get another look in center after stealing 67 bases, but he’ll need to improve his offense to remain in the lineup. The lackluster production at the plate and blistering speed are reminiscent of early-career Billy Hamilton, but Ruiz is nowhere near that caliber of defender, so he’ll need to improve either his general offensive output or his glovework to be a credible regular. Former No. 4 overall pick JJ Bleday, acquired from the Marlins for Puk, hit .195/.310/.355 but posted huge numbers in a smaller sample at Triple-A. Lawrence Butler’s first 129 plate appearances didn’t go well. All three will get more chances in 2024 — Ruiz in particular — but adding a low-cost outfielder like Travis Jankowski, Joey Gallo or Hunter Renfroe (to name a few speculative examples) seems feasible.

Some type of addition on the left side of the infield also seems likely, whether that’s buying low on a trade for someone who’s been squeezed out of his current organization (e.g. Nick Senzel) or signing more utility infield types. None of Nick Allen, Jordan Diaz, Kevin Smith and Jonah Bride have been able to stake a claim to a long-term job at either third base or shortstop. Much of that group will be given more chances, but Allen and Smith have struggled in multiple seasons now. Hernaiz could factor into the left side mix at some point midseason after a strong showing in the upper minors.

The pitching staff doesn’t create much more room for optimism. Blackburn and Sears both turned in passable performances, but the former is perhaps the team’s top remaining trade candidate, as previously mentioned. Top prospect Mason Miller impressed in a few short looks but has been oft-injured throughout his minor league career and spent much of the season on the big league injured list.

There’s a huge number of in-house candidates to take rotation jobs, but most have pitched poorly and/or been hurt in multiple MLB auditions to date. Muller, Waldichuk, Medina, Estes, Adrian Martinez, Freddy Tarnok and Joe Boyle are among the options on the 40-man roster. Journeyman southpaw Sean Newcomb could be in the mix as well, if he survives the winter on the 40-man after undergoing knee surgery recently. Waldichuk finished out the season decently and probably has the inside track among this bunch.

Somehow, there’s even less certainty in the bullpen. Dany Jimenez is the most experienced reliever slated to return. His 3.43 ERA in 57 2/3 innings over the past two seasons is solid, but he’s also walked 13.4% of his opponents during that time. Zach Jackson, who missed most of the year with a flexor strain, has a similarly impressive ERA but ugly walk rate. Waiver pickup Richard Lovelady might have done enough in 23 1/3 innings to earn himself a decent chance at a spot in 2024, but his season ended in July to a forearm strain.

It’s unlikely the A’s make any high-profile additions, but the dearth of quality arms and lack of anything resembling a big league pitching staff likely points to at least a few veteran additions. The A’s could dangle the ninth inning to a veteran looking for a bounceback season, as they did with May last winter. It’ll be a low bar for the 2024 staff to clear. Despite playing their home games in MLB’s most pitcher-friendly stadium, A’s hurlers ranked 29th in the Majors in ERA (5.48), 26th in strikeout rate (20.4%), last in walk rate (10.9%) and 27th in homers per nine innings (1.35).

This offseason will represent one of the darkest chapters in franchise history for an increasingly tortured A’s fan base. It appears all but certain that the team will be leaving the Bay within the next few years, and the 2024 campaign could represent the final year they play home games at the Coliseum. Yet lifelong fans hoping to enjoy perhaps the final year of their beloved Green & Gold at the Coliseum won’t see that appreciation returned by an ownership group that has no interest in competing between now and the time the team moves to Las Vegas. The A’s will spend some money on free agents, if only to ensure they retain their status as a revenue-sharing recipient, but they’ll also probably trade away a few of the familiar faces remaining on the roster.

The A’s posted winning records in 15 of Billy Beane’s 25 years atop the baseball operations hierarchy and never had more than three consecutive losing years, despite frequent rebuilds and perennial payroll constraints. Despite that success — including the aforementioned 97-win seasons in 2018-19 and the 2020 division title — Fisher has suggested that a winning franchise simply isn’t feasible in Oakland. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, and one that appears to be entering its final years while leaving the few fans who remain high and dry with little reason for optimism.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an A’s-centric chat on 10-03-23. Click here to view the transcript.