The Astros made a seventh straight appearance in the American League Championship Series. It ended on a sour note, as consecutive home losses to their in-state rivals left them a game shy of another pennant. Houston can bring back much the same roster in hope of returning to the Fall Classic in 2024. They may have a new voice leading the clubhouse.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Yordan Alvarez, DH: $103MM through 2028
- Cristian Javier, RHP: $59MM through 2027
- Lance McCullers Jr., RHP: $51MM through 2026
- José Abreu, 1B: $39MM through 2025
- Alex Bregman, 3B: $28.5MM through 2024
- Jose Altuve, 2B: $26MM through 2024
- Rafael Montero, RHP: $23MM through 2025
- Ryan Pressly, RHP: $16MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 vesting option)
- Justin Verlander, RHP: $12.033MM through 2024 (deal includes vesting player option for ’25)*
- Hector Neris, RHP: $8.5MM player option ($1MM buyout)
- Kendall Graveman, RHP: $8MM through 2024
Option Decisions
- RHP Hector Neris holds $8.5MM player option with $1MM buyout**
2024 financial commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $154.533MM
Total future commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $366.533MM
* Mets are responsible for $31.3MM of Verlander’s $43.333MM salary for 2024
** Player option is conditional on Neris passing end-of-season physical
Arbitration-Eligible Players
- Framber Valdez (4.163): $12.1MM
- Kyle Tucker (4.079): $12.6MM
- José Urquidy (4.049): $3.5MM
- Mauricio Dubón (3.162): $3.1MM
- Luis Garcia (3.083): $2.1MM
- Bryan Abreu (3.022): $2MM
- Chas McCormick (3.000): $3.1MM
Non-tender candidates: None
Free Agents
The Astros claimed a third consecutive division title on the final day of the regular season. They handled the Twins to move to another ALCS. They fell just shy of the World Series, dropping their fourth home game in the ALCS against their intra-state rivals last night.
Dusty Baker was unwilling to speculate about his future in the immediate aftermath of that loss. Britt Ghiroli and Chandler Rome of the Athletic reported that the veteran skipper has been telling people both within and outside the organization that he anticipated stepping away from managing after this year. Baker won’t technically have to resign — he was on a one-year contract anyhow — but the effect would be the same. If he moves on, Houston will need to kick off a managerial search for the first time in four years.
It’s far too early to identify any kind of favorites for that (potential) opening. Bench coach Joe Espada would presumably get a long look after interviewing for various jobs elsewhere. Houston checked in on the likes of Brad Ausmus, Buck Showalter and Jeff Banister during their surprising 2020 search that ultimately landed on Baker. Much has changed in the last four seasons, of course, and it’s unclear if ownership and second-year GM Dana Brown would prioritize previous managerial experience the same way the organization had in the immediate fallout of the sign-stealing punishment.
While the coaching situation is in a state of uncertainty, the front office can keep the roster mostly intact. None of their core players are headed to free agency. Houston will see middle relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek hit the market. Hector Neris could join them by declining an $8.5MM player option — assuming he passes a postseason physical, as expected — in search of another two-year deal.
Maton and Neris were solid pieces in a typically strong bullpen, which finished sixth in the majors in ERA and led MLB with a 26.3% strikeout rate. Stanek didn’t have a great 2023 campaign, although the hard-throwing righty combined for a 2.41 ERA in 123 innings between 2021-22. Their impending free agencies put some pressure on the front office to replenish the bullpen depth.
That could come by simply re-signing one or two of those pitchers. While each has a shot at a multi-year pact, none figures to land an exorbitant annual salary. If they let all three walk, they could identify a target or two in the lower tiers of free agency. Reacquiring Kendall Graveman at the deadline served as preemptive fortification of the 2024 setup core. The veteran joins Rafael Montero and Bryan Abreu as bridges to Ryan Pressly in the ninth inning.
The bullpen is light on left-handed options. That has been true for multiple seasons, though, with the Astros seemingly never placing much stock in building a relief corps they can leverage with traditional platoons. Given how effective the unit has been, they may again not care much about adding a lefty arm. If they did want to add a southpaw, someone like Andrew Chafin, Scott Alexander or Matt Moore could be available on a one-year deal.
Despite a few injuries, Houston doesn’t need to do a whole lot in the starting rotation. Justin Verlander is under contract for another season, with the Mets paying almost three-quarters of the salary to land Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the deadline blockbuster. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are locked into the second and third spots. Hunter Brown flashed big strikeout potential as a rookie. J.P. France tailed off in the second half but had a good enough rookie showing to compete for a spot at the back end.
This year was a complete loss for Lance McCullers Jr., who never made it past nagging forearm issues. He underwent a season-ending flexor tendon repair in June. The organization will have more clarity about McCullers’ status as the offseason progresses. When announcing the surgery, Dana Brown said the club envisioned the All-Star hurler returning in 2024, although he didn’t specify if McCullers is expected to be ready by Opening Day.
Luis Garcia underwent a Tommy John procedure in May. He’s unlikely to be a factor until the All-Star Break at the earliest. José Urquidy had some injury troubles of his own, missing a couple months with a shoulder strain. The righty didn’t require surgery and finished the season healthy. He had the worst numbers of his career, posting a 5.29 ERA in 63 innings after a sub-4.00 showing in each of his first four campaigns.
Perhaps the Astros are discouraged enough by Urquidy’s performance to put him on the trade market. His projected $3.5MM salary is relatively modest, so they’d find some interest. It may not be compelling enough to subtract a potential back-end arm given the uncertainties regarding Garcia and McCullers. If they deal Urquidy, they could look for a lower-variance veteran free agent in the Kyle Gibson mold to lock in a few innings.
The position player group is mostly established. Martín Maldonado and Michael Brantley are the only free agents. Multiple front office groups and coaching staffs have stuck by Maldonado despite consistently poor offense, pointing to his game-calling ability and work handling the pitching staff. It seems time for the organization to move on, however, as they have a talented younger backstop ready to take a larger role.
Yainer Diaz connected on 23 home runs while hitting .282/.308/.538 in 104 games as a rookie. The 25-year-old had been an excellent offensive player in the minors as well. Prospect evaluators have questioned how effective he’ll be defensively, but he already looks like one of the better bat-first catchers in the majors. Giving him the majority of the reps deepens the lineup.
Korey Lee was sent out in the Graveman deal, leaving the club without much catching depth beyond Diaz. Adding a veteran backup via free agency or small trade seems likely. Maldonado is a solid fit for this kind of role in isolation, although it may be tough for Houston to sell him on a true #2 job after years as their starter. If they want to go in another direction, Yasmani Grandal and Austin Hedges are impending free agents. Jacob Stallings and Christian Bethancourt could be available for a minimal trade return or non-tendered altogether.
Giving Diaz more time behind the plate clears a few at-bats in the designated hitter mix. The Astros have resisted making Yordan Alvarez a full-time DH, continuing to get him some left field reps. With Brantley heading back to free agency, they could bring in a Tommy Pham or Robbie Grossman type to play a rotational role.
Kyle Tucker is locked into right field. Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubón are options in center field. Houston has kicked around the idea of upgrading in center field in the past, potentially moving McCormick to left while using Alvarez more heavily at DH. If they again consider that kind of move, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor are among the free agent options.
The infield is set. José Abreu, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman are locked in around the dirt. Abreu had a tough start to his three-year free agent deal, as he was one of the game’s worst players in the first two months. The veteran slugger showed signs of life in the second half and had an excellent postseason. While it wasn’t the year that Houston had envisioned, Abreu likely did enough from June onward to solidify his hold on the first base job going into 2024. Dubón and Grae Kessinger are on hand as utility options.
There doesn’t appear to be a ton of short-term payroll room for a marquee free agent pickup. If Neris opts out, Houston still has nearly $155MM in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class is projected for a combined $38.5MM salary. Aside from arguably Urquidy, everyone in that group is a key part of the roster. That puts them at roughly $193MM before considering outside additions.
That already projects as a franchise-record Opening Day outlay. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Houston has never opened the season with a player payroll higher than $188MM; they entered this year in the $180MM range.
Barring a major spending hike, Houston probably isn’t going to make many headline-grabbing acquisitions. That’s not the worst thing in the world. They’re returning all the main contributors to what was arguably a top five roster. With just modest additions to the bullpen and at catcher, they should project alongside or above the Rangers and Mariners for the lead in the AL West.
The organization has greater longer-term payroll flexibility. Houston has only $75MM on the books for the 2025 season; if Verlander (140 innings) and Pressly (50 appearances) each hit vesting provisions next year, that could tack on another $29.5MM.
That could be important this offseason, as it seems likely the front office will engage key players on extension talks. Altuve is entering the final season of his most recent five-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested over the weekend that a new contract for the star second baseman was a priority. Agreeing to a four- or five-year pact running from his age-35 season wouldn’t be without risk but would more or less ensure he spends his entire career in Houston.
Bregman is one year from the open market as well. Tucker and Valdez have two more seasons of arbitration eligibility. Shortly after his hiring, Dana Brown went on record about his desire to get long-term deals done with much of the core. Thus far, only Javier has put pen to paper. There’s likely to be more conversations with all those players, although none of the deals would be cheap. Each should command nine figures, with Tucker and Bregman likely to beat Altuve’s $151MM extension that stands as the largest contract in franchise history.
The course of extension talks is probably more notable than any players the Astros will add this winter. There’s not going to be much turnover outside the manager’s office in the coming months. They’ll get another run with this core group. How much of this team remains after 2024 and ’25 is less certain. The front office should try to continue locking in their top players as they prepare for the second half of the decade.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat. Click here to view the transcript.
Priority #1 Don’t resign Maldonado
Priority #1 Resign Maldonado.
nosake: Let me elaborate re your comment. Priority #1 for Martin Maldonado: RESIGN yourself to the fact that you’re not a very good starting catcher. If you’re interested in staying with the Astros, they might be willing to RE-SIGN you as they’re backup.
The vast majority of the problem with his function on the ’23 team came from management. Next year I think he’d justify a roster spot providing catching depth and leadership/mentorship. If he doesn’t want to take a 1yr contract to do that, that’s fine and the future is still bright at C. Thank you, James Click.
Agreed, resign him to be the backup catcher and mentor Diaz. He shouldnt be a starter anymore, but in that role he’s still super valuable.
Absolutely agree. Without him in the lineup we effectively get an extra player.
The only reason Maldonado being on the roster was a problem was because Tucker, Abreu, and Pena all fell into a black hole and weakened the lineup. You pull decent years from Tucker and Pena, along with average years from Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, Chas, and Brantley, you can afford to have a miserable hitting catcher.
Clarifying… Tucker and Pena being a black hole in the postseason, and Abreu being a blackhole in the first half of the season. If you get average years from everyone, you can afford to carry Maldonado on the lineup.
I’m not willing to bank on that though. I say play Yainer. If Maldonado doesn’t want to take a backseat, cut him loose.
bmp010: Let me correct this for you. Priority #1 for the Astros is to NOT RE-SIGN Martin Maldonado.
When it comes to Kyle, make the mother Tucker happy.
Dusty didn’t lose that ALCS by himself, but he really did pour gas onto a small fire routinely. Glad he’s leaving with his ring, but they need a new voice. Outside of Joe Espada, not sure who would make sense running the show. As long as Maldonadd isn’t a part of it, it’s an upgrade at both positions.
If the Astros were an 80s movie everyone hated they’d be The Garbage Pail Kids
St Elmo’s Fire
As a fan of the semi-pro Angels, rooting for the Rangers vs the ‘Stros was an easy choice. The Rangers can’t really be rivals of my team because, well, my team is a joke. And the ‘Stros are the ‘Stros and I always like seeing them lose. WTG Rangers!
The crazy thing is, I to was rooting for the Rangers. Probably for the same obvious reason, but the only thing that most would argue with u is, The Rangers are more of a rival than the Stro’s.
The Astros aren’t a rival to the Angels at all as of yet. Simply cause the only time the Astros were good in our division, was the last 6/7 years when we weren’t.
The Rangers we butted heads a lot with in the 21st century, with solid teams at the same time.
Not enough history with the Astros in the American League, whereas the Rangers have been an annual opponent for the Angels much longer. Won’t be relevant a decade from now anyways as realignment will be inevitable. Either by expansion, or by the relocation of teams like Oakland or one of the Florida teams who average about 13 fans per game each.
Hoping we add two expansions, then realign both leagues into 4 teams each in N/S/E/W divisions.
There’s definitely enough support for it. Add Salt Lake City and Nashville. Or Charlotte and Nashville.
With Framber, Tucker and Pena all faltering, the Astros didn’t stand a chance.
Cesar Salazar is someone the staff loved for his defensive abilities, and was the third catcher early in the season
BLOW IT UP!
I just did! My porcelain throne is wrecked!
You must’ve been really backed up. I call those ones “Altuves.”
So sad to see the Houston players, front office and fans cheated out of a World Series. Life is not fair
They weren’t cheated out of anything. They were out-managed significantly, and outplayed.
They should’ve thrown at Adolis again after another gloating HR. Shame for missed opportunities.
So long as Crusty “The Clown” Baker and Maldonado are gone, all will improve.
Getting rid of the disastrous Dusty-Moldy duo will make them a much better team
I don’t know if Framber Valdez is worth a big contract. Side note: I hope the Diamondbacks beat the diet Astros.
He’s not and do you mean the AL champs? Also you misspelled your username. It’s supposed to be the ghostros because their “dynasty” is over.
Bless your heart, Rangers fans are so cute. Made 1 World Series in 20 years and act like they are the new big dog. Calm down Sally, you are still a little chihuahua. Astros have made 7 straight trips to the ALCS, so it’s pretty ignorant to state that their dynasty is over.
Enjoy your moment in the sun, because the Rangers are gonna do what the Rangers do and lose the World Series. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.
It would actually be 3 WS appearances in 20 years but you obviously only started watching after the Astros tanked and got lucky that their draft picks actually worked out.
Been a die-hard Astros fans since before you were in pampers, most likely. Impressive, 3 trips and zero trophies.
Does it hurt your feelings that the Astros tanked and then became wildly successful, and are still successful. It was an excellent decision that their new owner made to build a dynasty franchise. Doesn’t seem to be much “luck” involved, rather great scouting and smart decisions.
Keep being triggered though. Praying for your speedy recovery from Astros-obsessive disorder.
Astros are trending down old timer. Smart decisions is what they’ll need to turn it around before it’s too late. They have no farm system and if you think their pitching holds up next year, you’re in for a ride.
Again, when the Rangers have won anything, you can run your mouth. Until then, keep being the shadow of the Astros. They are a proven winner, and the Rangers are barely a splash in the pan.
And it’s funny you mention pitching holding up with the Rangers rotation and their health/history.
No, I mean the diet Astros. My username is spelled correctly.
It was awesome getting to see the Trashtros get blown out in game 7! Also Adolis Garcia getting ALCS MVP and the last laugh is great! Thank you Rangers for taking out the trash!
It was even more fun to watch them dominate the last 7 years and win 2 world titles
You mean 1 world series title and go down in history as the biggest cheaters in sports history with their trash 2017 team!! I don’t think anyone considers their so called 2017 title legit outside of Houston!! That 2017 team will always be known as a bunch of pieces of trash!! Anyways thanks to their in-state rivals the Texas Rangers who kicked their @$$
in game 7 in Houston!!
Calm down with the exclamation points.
Off season for the Phillies hey if they have won they would of burned down the city of Philly and would have rioted and looted the stores
They’ll still get bigger raises. That’s the way it seems to work. Pay them for their potential and longevity, not performance.
I’d love to see contracts paid out based on incentives. Everyone gets a base salary, then for every HR, 2B, 3B, BB you get bonuses. Certain BA and SLG and OBP and OPS thresholds get you more money. Etc etc etc.
If a new guy has an “Altuve” type of year, pay him for it. If Altuve has a “Pena” type of year… pay him for it. You get paid for what you do… not what you did and what you might do.
Trading Urquidy, who has a floor as a fill in starter and ceiling as a reliable playoff rotation arm, would be a big mistake. You aren’t going to find that for $3.5M on the market.
Also, the author failed to mention that Houston has never opened the season with another owner footing $31.3M (16%) of their opening day payroll.
That is a historic amount that puts Houston’s payroll commitment to $161M and gives them roughly $25-30M of short term flexibility to spend in free agency.
Agree, trading Urquidy makes zero sense. Especially given that the return would be minimal.
It would be sad to see Dusty go. He was great. Yes some issues this season like loss of Garcia and McCullers. McCullers to me does not fit full starter anymore after 3 seasons on IL. Garcia August perhaps. Dump Urquidy. I would look for CF and LF. Chas does not fit mold. Myself another part time dismal season of him. I like thought of Maybe Taylor for CF. That position needs a better player. Dubon will go back to Utility. Kessinger is worthless. Will Framber and Javier rebound. I do not see Framber worth 12 mil with his arbitration. Clearly neither were worth top starters. Aces shall we say. Verlander did show age. What will be like next season. We need starters. Maybe send Brown out. Do not think can see a disaster season again with him. But do not see big changes. Management and coaching yes. Catching Diaz does need Veteran backup. So maybe one of the mentioned. No to someone like Salazar we had. Diaz is not teacher material yet. He still needs a lot of guidance. Framber, JV and Javier will want experience as their catcher. So a veteran back up could work them. I just do not see inexperience like Diaz being front with them.
I like the diamond back how they played in the post season and that pis Harper looking at there dugout on a hr. Guess Harper won’t be glaring in the WS. Great job diamond backs. Now to who’s going to win it. The rangers. In 5