Finding a new manager is the first order of business for the Guardians, as Terry Francona is retiring after a Cooperstown-worthy managerial career. The offseason’s first weeks will be dominated by news of the managerial search, but Cleveland will still face lingering questions about how to upgrade the lineup, and whether or not to trade Shane Bieber.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Ramirez, 3B: $105MM through 2028
- Andres Gimenez, IF: $101.5MM through 2029 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2030)
- Myles Straw, OF: $19.25MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have an $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout on Straw’s 2028 season)
- Emmanuel Clase, RP: $15MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $10MM club option with $2MM buyout on Clase’s 2028 season)
- Trevor Stephan, RP: $8.65MM through 2026 (includes $1.25MM buyout of $7.25MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $7.5MM club option with no buyout on Stephan’s 2028 season)
Other Financial Obligations
- $10.5MM owed to Jean Segura (released on August 1)
Total 2024 commitments: $41.1MM
Total future commitments: $259.9MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Shane Bieber (5.097): $12.2MM
- Cam Gallagher (5.073): $1.3MM
- Ramon Laureano (4.165): $4.7MM
- Cal Quantrill (4.132): $6.6MM
- Josh Naylor (4.127): $7.2MM
- James Karinchak (3.099): $1.9MM
- Triston McKenzie (3.074): $1.8MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (3.015): $1.2MM
- Sam Hentges (2.157): $1.1MM
- Nick Sandlin (2.157): $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Gallagher, Laureano, Karinchak
Free Agents
Francona’s final season unfortunately didn’t include any more postseason magic, as the Guardians finished with a 76-86 record — just the second losing record for Francona in his last 19 seasons as a manager. Since the Twins didn’t pull away until later in the season, the relative weakness of the AL Central left the Guardians in an odd state of quasi-contention, resulting in an unusual slate of transactions in the second half.
The pre-deadline moves of Amed Rosario (to the Dodgers), Aaron Civale (to the Rays) and Josh Bell (to the Marlins) seemed like a borderline concession, yet with Cleveland still just two games behind Minnesota at the end of August, the Guards took advantage of the Angels’ semi-fire sale on the waiver wire to claim Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Matt Moore for the stretch run. A 12-16 record in September and October finally did Cleveland in, and the real white flag was waived on September 19 when the Guardians themselves put Moore on waivers, and the southpaw was claimed away by the Marlins.
The sub.-500 record doesn’t mean the Guards will explore a rebuild, however. The franchise’s state of more or less perpetual contention isn’t likely to end now that Francona is gone, as president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff still have plenty of talent on hand. Superstar Jose Ramirez is still in his prime, and the Naylor brothers (Josh and Bo) now both look like impressive young hitters, with Bo performing well in his first extended taste of MLB action as the Guardians’ regular catcher.
However, the rest of the lineup was lacking. The Guardians finished last among all teams in home runs, 29th of 30 in slugging percentage, and 27th in both OPS and runs scored. It was another inconsistent offense that required the pitching staff to be great to have a hope of legitimately contending, so when a number of injuries reduced the staff to being just decent, the club suffered.
For some added salt in the lineup’s wound, outfielders Nolan Jones (Rockies) and Will Benson (Reds) ended up having breakout seasons after the Guardians respectively dealt the outfielders in offseason trades. It’s hard to say if either Jones or Benson would’ve posted similar numbers if they’d have stayed in Cleveland, though that might speak to a separate issue of why the organization couldn’t unlock that potential itself.
More offense is clearly necessary, so where can the Guardians improve? Ramirez and the Naylors have third base, first base, and catcher covered. Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan will hold everyday positions in 2024, even if perhaps not necessarily in their normal spots of second base and left field. Getting Gimenez anywhere close to his 2022 numbers would be a boost unto itself for the Guardians, as after signing a seven-year, $106.5MM extension, he delivered only around league-average production this season.
If Gimenez isn’t moved across the middle infield, former top-100 prospects Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio, and Tyler Freeman will all be competing for the shortstop job. Arias is the favorite since he received most of the playing time in the latter stages of 2023, though none of the trio has hit much of anything during their (admittedly small) sample size of MLB playing time. With these three, Jose Tena, Juan Brito, and more interesting middle-infield prospects down on the farm, Cleveland could again look to trade from this surplus for help at other positions.
This leaves the DH spot and the two non-Kwan outfield positions as the most obvious positions of need. Kwan is one of the game’s best defensive left fielders, but if he can handle center field, Myles Straw could become a fourth outfielder and allow for the Guardians to put more pop into the corner slots. Straw continues to be an excellent defender, but also one of the least-impactful hitters in baseball. Among other in-house outfielders, Will Brennan didn’t hit much, Oscar Gonzalez hit even less and was relegated to Triple-A, and Ramon Laureano had about league-average production after being claimed from the A’s in August, but that’s probably not enough to avoid a non-tender.
First baseman Kyle Manzardo (acquired in the Civale trade) and top outfield prospects George Valera and Chase DeLauter should all be making their MLB debuts at some point in 2024, and the Guardians would love to see any of them have an immediate breakout. In the interim, however, the Guards need bats now, thus opening the door for one or two veteran bats on short-term control.
After spending relatively big by their standards to sign Bell (two years, $33MM), and Mike Zunino (one year, $6MM), one wonders if the Guardians are willing to stretch the budget even that far into free agency. The pickings are slim in general in this winter’s thin position-player market, and Cleveland’s choices are further limited by their modest payroll. Furthering narrowing the field is the left-handed slant of the current Guardians lineup, so the team might prioritize right-handed or switch-hitters.
Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, or a bounce-back candidate like Hunter Renfroe could fit. If more lefty swingers are on the radar, maybe Joc Pederson or old friend Michael Brantley could fall within the Guards’ price range. The Guardians figure to be one of many teams vying for Aaron Hicks since the Yankees are covering almost all of his salary over the next two seasons, but the rejuvenated Hicks might prefer to join a more clear-cut contender or just stay in Baltimore. For first base/DH types that could share time with Josh Naylor, players like Rhys Hoskins, Garrett Cooper, or another former Cleveland staple in Carlos Santana could be considered.
Turning to the trade market, the Guardians’ enviable ability to keep developing quality big league starters can get them involved in several trade conversations, depending on how much pitching depth Cleveland is willing to sacrifice. Making a blockbuster strike for, say, Juan Soto doesn’t fit Antonetti/Chernoff’s traditionally measured approach, but landing a quality bat with more team control is a possibility. Teams like the Cardinals, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, or Nationals are all varying degrees of fits in pitcher-for-outfielder scenarios, and any number of clubs could further emerge since every team always needs pitching in a broad sense.
Could landing a veteran bat for Shane Bieber be feasible? It would depart from the Guardians’ usual model of trying to get at least one big league-ready younger talent and a longer-term prospect when dealing one of its established veteran stars, yet Bieber’s trade stock has taken a bit of a dip. Bieber is only arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and he has had two of his last three seasons shortened by injuries. It seems possible that Cleveland might’ve dealt Bieber at the last trade deadline if he’d been healthy, rather than on the 60-day injured list due to elbow inflammation.
Though years of Bieber-related trade rumors seem to have led to this crescendo in the 2023-24 offseason, an argument can be made that the Guardians should also hold onto the right-hander until at least the trade deadline. This past season has underlined the importance of rotation depth, with Bieber and Cal Quantrill each missing a good chunk of the season and Triston McKenzie limited to only 16 innings. If Bieber was dealt, Cleveland would be left with a rotation of McKenzie and Quantrill looking for bounce-back years, and the outstanding but inexperienced rookie trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen. It’s still a solid group on paper, though more injuries or at least one sophomore slump could again leave the Guards scrambling, even if more young arms (headlined by Xzavion Curry) are waiting for their opportunity.
If Bieber was retained, the Guardians could explore moving Quantrill as an alternative, as Quantrill has two years of arbitration eligibility to Bieber’s one. It would also be something of a sell-low situation given how shoulder problems limited Quantrill to 99 2/3 innings (with a 5.24 ERA) in 2023. Bieber also has more front-of-the-rotation upside, whereas teams might have more questions about Quantrill’s low-strikeout, soft-contact approach, even he has produced very good results when healthy over the last four seasons.
The bullpen was around the middle of the pack last year, though any upgrades might be pretty low-key since Cleveland hasn’t traditionally made many splashes in adding relief pitching. Bringing in another left-hander could be a priority, or just a veteran arm or two on a minor league contract. As always, the bullpen could be a way for some MLB-ready future starters to get their feet wet against big league competition, like how Curry worked mostly as a reliever in 2023.
The bench might likewise not get a lot of focus, and if a couple of new outfield/DH types are indeed acquired, the bench mix could be somewhat set given the presence of Straw, Brennan, and the utility infielders. Cam Gallagher’s lack of offense makes him a non-tender candidate, but since the Guardians have shown a propensity for all-glove/no-bat catchers, the team might retain him as Naylor’s backup. If Gallagher is let go, utilityman David Fry might be considered for the role, if the Guards are okay having a backup catcher with more versatility than normal.
In some ways, 2023 paralleled Cleveland’s previous losing season in 2021, when several pitching injuries dropped the team to an 80-82 record. With this in mind, better rotation health alone might be enough to get the Guards (as they did in 2022) right back into contention the following season, even if adding more hitting might be a cleaner path to consistent winning than continuing to rely so heavily on pitching and defense. There is also the x-factor of whether or not the Guardians’ winning formula can continue without Francona skillfully balancing the dugout, as there’s naturally no way to entirely replace what the skipper brought to the organization. Nobody expects the Guardians’ next manager to be the next Francona, but there’s plenty of pressure trying to both fill the shoes of a legend and try a team back into the playoff hunt.
Click here to read the transcript of the Guardians-centric Mark Polishuk held in conjunction with the Offseason Outlook
The article got it exactly right in that Straw needs to be a 4th OF at best because he was indeed one of the worst offensive OFs in the league, and that was no anomaly. Move Kwan to CF and package Straw along with Bieber to a CF needy team for a productive corner OF. Easier said than done, but based on the past 2 years it’s clear the FO wants Straw in CF daily, and that has not worked out.
That was a remarkable trade for the Astros.
Phil Maton is good for 65 or so innings every year out of the bullpen. But Yainer Diaz was the prize that will keep on giving for years. He could always hit in the minors. But he’s worked hard with the Astros coaches and starting catcher Martin Maldonado. He had one of the best pop times of MLB catchers this year, is excellent defensively, and calls a great game working with the Astros pitchers. He may become the Astros primary catcher as soon as next year. It’s interesting because Sandy Alomar, Jr. has always been good working with Catchers, but was never really given a chance with Diaz.
Yainer Diaz will haunt Cleveland fans in the same way Yandy Diaz has with Tampa Bay (and to a lesser extent Harold Ramirez). I don’t know if the FO gives up on players too early, if the coaching staff isn’t effective anymore with youngsters (their current hitting coaches results have been absolutely awful), or if the obsession with LH hitters that doesn’t work (as opposing teams throw LH pitchers against those guys each year) is their top priority. The fact is that the Cleveland FO has made a number of terrible trades over the past 3 or so years and strong pitching will not make up for that.
Payback for Kenny Lofton
LOL
It’s funny that they are so desperate for any offense, and all players that they trade away seem to turn into above-average hitters as soon as they’re out of cleveland. YandyDiaz, Ramirez, Jones, Benson and maybe soon Yainer Diaz and Camineiro (TB).
It’s some combination of bad scouting, lackluster player development/coaching, how their home ballpark suppresses offense, and pure luck. They’re very fortunate that Jose Ramirez signed that extension.
They’re great at scouting overall but they’ve really struggled at self-scouting their own hitters. It’s weird because it’s pretty much the opposite of how they are with pitching; they’re great at identifying pitchers who fit the mold of what they’re good at developing, and they don’t have any kind of plan like that with hitters. We don’t really even know what they’re good at developing in hitters anyway — they’re great at making contact but the vast majority of guys they’ve drafted and signed over the past few years had high contact profiles beforehand so they didn’t really teach that. It doesn’t seem like they have any sort of plan for developing power.
For a few years now it’s felt like they need an organizational overhaul when it comes to hitting, from the minors up. Not only do they seem to pick the wrong guys to keep and the wrong ones to move, but they’re also not good enough at developing them. This is a smart enough front office that I don’t think they’re totally just guessing wrong every time, and it’s probably not a coincidence that other teams are able to fix them as soon as they get them. I’m not convinced that Benson or Jones would have been contributors if the Guardians had kept them; instead they got regular at bats and (I’m assuming) better coaching than they had been getting here.
I definitely think the front office deserves some of the blame, but it’s probably just as much on player development.
IMVHO, Bieber is the next in a long line of CL pitchers that will run into bigger arm issues. Those last two starts might be showcase starts, and the 12/1 K/W might just be enough to convince a desperate team that he is still a good starter.
You’re probably right on Straw, but I haven’t quite given up on him yet. He’ll never be a good hitter, but he should be as bad as he looked in 2023.
It seems like nearly all pitchers get arm injuries as they age. If a pitcher makes it to his mid-30’s without a s8gnificant injury or velocity drop – they are freaks. Not sure that Cleveland pitchers are any worse than the league average.
“First baseman Kyle Manzardo (acquired in the Civale trade) and top outfield prospects George Valera and Chase DeLauter should all be making their MLB debuts at some point in 2024.”
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Right.
And all 3 are LH hitters that will be seeing a steady diet of LH pitchers from the opposition, particularly LH relief specialists at critical points in games.
That team needs 2 RH power-hitting run-producing bats to balance their line-up….Yandy Diaz and Harold Ramirez would be nice if Tampa Bay would part with them.
That’s the frustration of what the FO says it needs and what it actually produces. For years this team has needed RH run producing bats, but they keep producing and acquiring LH bats. I’m not convinced they ever wanted HRam – they cast him away like a disposable diaper. They turned Yandy Diaz into Jake Bauer (LH) and ran him out there WAY after the rest of us knew he was never gonna work out. They NEED RH power, but they don’t want it, and therein lies the problem.
solaris602;
It’s the higher wall in A PART of Left-Center field at their park. The FO has always been too analytic-oriented. They see by the numbers that LH batters hit better at home, so they overdo it.
You look what the Orioles have done.. Yet another team that puts a large emphasis on analytics. Someone made the decision to move the ENTIRE LF wall at Camden yards back 26 feet a few years ago. If they were Cleveland FO’s that were wedded to analytics they’d see that LH hitters do better at their home park and overload on LH hitters. But their FO is baseball savvy enough to know that even though RH power hitters are at a disadvantage at Camden Yards, they still need balance at home and on the road. The O’s have a few switch hitters and a number of quality RH hitters.
Cleveland’s FO was totally impractical when Shapiro was there with Antonetti. The Dolan’s kicked Shapiro upstairs to move of the business side a bit after Francona arrived (Shapiro has hit a wall in Toronto, basically he spends money on players….which he couldn’t do in Cleveland…but hasn’t really developed any of his own players), and Tito had a very good influence on FO decisions. But the trade of Yandy Diaz for Jake Bauer was just ridiculous when it was made, And son-of-a-gun, they just did the exact same thing trading for Kyle Manzardo who profiles offensively exactly as Bauer does – line drive LH hitting 1B. If he turns out to be Wally Joyner that would be nice….but there have been very few Wally Joyner’s.
The over reliance on LHH is frustrating. Pitchers like Eduardo Rodriquez looked like Sandy Koufax against the lineup. Zero adjustments from at bat to at bat suggest a problem in the hitting/scouting department.
But the biggest problem in Cleveland is they don’t trust or can’t develop their hitters. Oscar Gonzalez never got a fair shot (neither did Benson or Jones or Caminero or Diaz or…) and the Ians were left with a rotation of Laureano, Brennan and Straw in CF and RF. You’re never going to win with those three taking up spots in the lineup.
The Ranirez, Clase, and Stephan deals look like bargains. The Ginenez deal is a lot like the Marcus Semien deal, though. Defensive specialists are wavier claims (Simmons, IKF, etc.), so he is being paid for his WAR, but really, he is providing a modest increase in offense and is making over 20 MM in his free agent years. Also, not how offense gets paid, but defense is ignoerd in arb – see Juan Soto types vs other higher WAR defense guys.
1-I would suggest that he is a good bit better offensively than IKF and still better than Simmons, though not the glove Simmons has.
2-The CL will likely trade him before the expensive years, probably before he hits the $23M mark, and maybe before he hits the $15M mark.
This whole piece pretty much nailed everything. Pitching health will definitely help, but even if everyone stays healthy for a full year it’s still a question of if they’ll score enough runs. A full year of Bo catching should help (especially since he shouldn’t be hitting 8th again), but they’re still looking at black holes in the lineup in two outfield spots and at short. Arias probably is the favorite but I’m still the biggest fan of Rocchio long term. Arias has elite exit velocities and plays great defense, but it’s very possible he won’t hit enough for it to matter. Either way, as most of the fanbase has said for years, they need to make firm decisions on these guys instead of letting them rot while they sit on their hands trying to make up their minds. It’s why they were forced to sell low on Jones and Benson in the first place, even if Brito might salvage the Jones trade.
Manzardo and (to a lesser extent) Valera could help, but they can’t go into the season without a legitimate plan in place beyond hoping for a prospect breakout. Even if Manzardo pans out (and I’m a fan of his), he’s still a lefty bat at a power position without elite power and in a lineup that’s already too left handed as it is. The difference between Valera’s upside and downside is too big that they can’t really rely on him right now, and DeLauter has a chance to be special but he doesn’t have a ton of at bats just yet. I like Brito a lot too but he probably fits into the outfield equation more than the infield equation long term.
Since I’ve wanted them to be proactive in trading a few extra prospects for meaningful lineup improvements in the past without it happening, I don’t know if there’s another way for them to substantially improve the lineup unless someone breaks out and that’s not an ideal plan. Someone like Pham would be a great addition (and someone like Gurriel would be even better but he’s not in their budget), but I’d imagine that their additions this offseason will be along the lines of hoping a veteran returns to form like their gamble on Zunino last year.
I don’t see Bieber bringing back a ton in a trade because of injuries and having one year of control, so at this point I think there’s more value in just holding onto him. I know they were in the same spot with Kluber and that’s how they ended up with Clase, but I’d take a more stable rotation picture over a lottery ticket or two right now.
Bringing back Reynaldo Lopez would be great because they could use another bullpen piece or two, but they tend to find a contributor from minor league free agency every year so I’d imagine they’ll take a few cheap flyers on some depth pieces and hope they can do it again. For the most part, I don’t see any big changes this offseason other than the new manager.
I didn’t realize I wrote this much until I read it afterward lol
TLDR: this team needs bats and I’m not sure how they’ll get them
I posted this earlier but Arias can’t hit lefties. 9 hits in 119 Plate appearances. If a LH pitcher so much as warms up in the bullpen, Arias needs to be removed from the stadium.
Unfortunately I think you’re right. They need a 1B/DH type who is right handed to play there and give Manzardo another full year in the minors. I think they’d line up well with SEA on a trade. Even though Clase led the league in saves this year he still had roughly 12 blown saves, and he just didn’t inspire as much confidence as he did the previous 2 years. Ty France also had an off year for the Ms. That would be a worthwhile trade for both teams.
Glad to see talk of DeLauter debuting sometime in ’24. Get ready, Cleveland!
Personally, I think Laureano has a decent chance of being tendered a contract. He hits LHP and looked really solid on defense. Perhaps a little on the expensive-side for a platoon guy but I think they liked what they saw.
I was thinking the same thing. I’m sure they’ll look into bringing him in for less than his projected salary, but I’d be willing to bring him back for sure. They just don’t have a lot of guys who can hit lefties and you could do worse as a bench bat.
I don’t see them spending to add an everyday solution, so getting someone who can handle the short side of a platoon in the outfield makes some sense.
I only disagree because they have Straw taking up a roster spot. Brennan should be the 4th outfielder, with Straw and Laureano being cut. Where you come up with a legit CF and RF is anybody’s guess. You’d love to see DeLauter in RF and Valera in CF but that’s 3 LH bats in the outfield.
Stupifying to see so many comments (here/elsewhere) leaning Arias at SS. He was 9/105 vs LHP with 53 Ks !! Rocchio has to be better.
Cleveland ownership continues to be AAAA and I have no faith they will change. Analytics and analysis paralysis united with cheap is a miserable combination.
They need RH RF with power and RH DH with power and an MLB-calibre C2. (RH)
I’m torn on Arias. The appeal with him is that he hits the ball hard (which most guys in their lineup can’t do), he has the ability to be special defensively, and he had almost an .800 OPS against righties. The downside is that he might not hit consistently enough for it to matter. For better or worse, I see some Javy Baez in his game.
Rocchio is my favorite too (he reminds me of Lindor as a prospect because Lindor had an almost identical profile to Rocchio before he developed the power he has now), but Arias has a few hundred more at bats and seemed to be their first choice to play there every day when they traded Rosario. I think it’s down to those two because Freeman and Tena are probably utility guys or trade bait, but I at least get the appeal of Arias because the tools are definitely there.
Arias simply has the best tools and highest ceiling of any of their middle infielders. He can be an elite defensive shortstop with one of the best infield arms in the game and 20+ HR pop.
The big issue is the lack of contact, which could completely derail his ability to be a major league regular.
Arias is 23 and doesn’t have 400 major league AB yet.. and most of his playing time has been in a bench role. Too early to give up on him
westcasey is absolutely right. .083/.168/.148 slash line against LHP. Rocchio’s small sample size leans heavily towards a similar outcome, only slightly better. Juan Brito better pan out, because the “plethora” of MI prospects all look like light hitting, good defense. Freeman is the guy I like, but seems destined for a utility role despite having a better track record in the minors.
Is it me, or do the Ians do a really poor job scouting the value of their own prospects.
I’m not sure I would look at a small sample size of splits stats and declare a 23 year old player’s career doomed. He certainly has a number of things to work on, including hitting LHP.
Josh Naylor had extremely poor numbers against LHP coming into this season. His career OPS against LHP is .650 and he was looking like more of a platoon guy.. he was able to right the ship this year, hitting over .800 OPS against LHP.
Arias has issues and hasn’t performed well offensively but he still hasn’t been given an extended look.. roughly 400 AB over parts of two seasons. I thunk he will have the inside track for the SS job in Spring Training but Freeman and Rocchio will both have a chance as well.
I would like to see us keep all our starting pitching. I could see Cal Quantrill being a very valuable innings eater like Shaw out of the pen. If we want to compete the best way to resign Lopez and make a hard hard push for that Japanese player. That would allow us to have enough depth that we would be fine at RF, DH and SS. If we can’t….which let’s face we probably can’t. I would like to see us try and get Rocchio in CF and sign a right handed bat to split time between DH and RF.
The organization is trying to contend and develop young hitters at the same time. This seems like a tricky proposition since some guys (Benson and Jones) take longer while others like Spongebob and Gimenez have sophomore slumps. They whiffed on Camineiro, Yandy and Yainer Diaz. They have too many shortstops. They have right-handed power bat potential with Noel and Jonathan Rodriguez at Columbus. Tito will help them find a decent skipper. Keep Reynaldo Lopez in the bullpen. Trade Beebs, Cal, Straw and a SS for Michael Trout and let’s go.
“They whiffed on Camineiro, Yandy and Yainer Diaz. They have too many shortstops.”
Yes…..
And the sad thing is that Camineiro stands a very good chance of being far, far better than both of them….and the sadder thing is, each one of those guys are better then everyone they kept.