Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds made a surprising playoff push just one year removed from a 100-loss season. While they came up short in the final weekend, the influx of young talent reintroduced a jolt of excitement to the organization. They’re no longer upstarts. To take the next step, they’ll need to address the pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Hunter Greene, RHP: $50MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)

Option Decisions

• Team holds $20MM option on 1B Joey Votto ($7MM buyout)
• $4MM mutual option between team and C Curt Casali ($750K buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

• Owe $4MM buyout to released 3B Mike Moustakas
• Owe $1.5MM buyout to released RF Wil Myers

2024 financial commitments: $16.25MM
Total future commitments: $63.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

• Lucas Sims
• Nick Senzel
• Derek Law
• Justin Dunn
• Tejay Antone
• Alex Young
• Jake Fraley
• Tyler Stephenson
• Jonathan India
• Vladimir Gutierrez (potential Super Two)

Non-tender candidates: Senzel, Law, Dunn, Gutierrez

Free Agents

• Buck Farmer, Joey Votto (assuming option declined), Luke Maile, Curt Casali, Harrison Bader

Few outside the Cincinnati organization expected the Reds to hang in the playoff mix all season. They made a rapid jump from clear rebuilder to potential Wild Card team as they graduated a number of talented young players, largely on the position player side.

There’s more reason for optimism than there has been entering each of the previous two offseasons. Ownership is clearly happy with the organizational direction. The Reds signed manager David Bell to a three-year extension in July. Last week, they promoted front office head Nick Krall from GM to president of baseball operations in conjunction with an extension of undisclosed length. Brad Meador received the general manager title, solidifying him as the #2 executive.

The focus now turns to the roster. Cincinnati’s first offseason decision is a straightforward one, though it could mark the symbolic end of a previous era in franchise history. The guaranteed portion of Joey Votto’s 10-year, $225MM extension has wrapped up. The Reds will obviously opt for a $7MM buyout in lieu of a $20MM club option, sending Votto to the open market for the first time in his career. The $13MM price point is beyond what a 40-year-old first baseman coming off a second straight middling offensive season could find in free agency.

Votto, of course, has constructed a strong Hall of Fame case during his 17 years in Cincinnati. He won the 2010 NL MVP and finished in the top three in balloting on two more occasions. He’s a career .294/.409/.511 hitter who ranks 93rd in major league history having reached base 3581 times, the highest mark for any active player. Votto is one of the greatest players in franchise history and among the most productive first basemen ever.

It’s not a guarantee that Votto’s time in Cincinnati is complete. The six-time All-Star has thus far been noncommittal about whether he’ll continue his playing career. After Sunday’s season finale, he told the beat he “just (doesn’t) have an answer yet” about his future (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds could certainly look to bring him back on a cheaper one-year pact if he wants to return for an 18th season.

While Votto is a franchise icon, the Reds aren’t facing the loss of much 2023 on-field production from any of their impending free agents. They’ll decline their end of a $4MM mutual option on backup catcher Curt Casali. Third backstop Luke Maile heads back to the open market, though the Northern Kentucky native would probably be open to another cheap one-year pact to stick with the Reds if they wanted to keep him as the #2 catcher.

Cincinnati got surprisingly little from that position this past season. Tyler Stephenson entered the year as one of the game’s most promising young catchers. The Reds hoped that more time divided between catching and designated hitter would keep him healthy after a series of fluke injuries impacted his ’22 campaign. That proved to be the case, but Stephenson didn’t hit well. Over a career-high 517 plate appearances, he managed only a .242/.317/.378 line — well off the .296/.369/.454 pace he carried into the year.

He hit the ball reasonably hard, although his grounder rate spiked dramatically in the second half. Stephenson was one of the few controllable position players who underperformed expectations. Given his pre-2023 track record and a weak free agent catching class, the Reds probably give him another chance as the #1 option. They’ll need to sign at least one backup, whether Maile or a similar player.

Cincinnati is unlikely to make many additions on the infield dirt. They have a deep collection of young talent. Spencer Steer can play any of the corner spots on the diamond and saw limited action at second base. He is not a great defender anywhere but hit his way into the lineup across multiple positions. It’s a similar story with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, another rookie corner infielder who joined the Reds in the lopsided Tyler Mahle trade with Minnesota.

Steer is the more complete hitter at this point, while Encarnacion-Strand covered for middling plate discipline with plus power. They both managed above-average results in their first extended looks at big league arms — Steer had struggled in a cup of coffee on the 2022 team — and look like potential middle-of-the-order bats from the right side. Encarnacion-Strand saw the bulk of his time at first base and DH down the stretch.

That’s in part because he isn’t a great third base defender, though it also hints at the amount of up-the-middle talent the Reds possess. Matt McLain had arguably the best rookie campaign of any Cincinnati player, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers in 89 games before a season-ending oblique injury. He seized the primary shortstop job. That pushed Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte — both of whom came up primarily as shortstop prospects — to the hot corner.

Marte also raked in a 35-game sample after his promotion in late August. The results were mixed on De La Cruz, who showed the tantalizing physical gifts that made him an arguable top five prospect but also the concerning plate discipline profile that left some evaluators cautious.

De La Cruz concluded his rookie year with a .235/.300/.410 slash through 427 trips. He hit 13 home runs, stole 35 bases and showed top-of-the-scale arm strength with regularity. Yet his overall defensive ratings were mixed and he struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances. After a scorching start, he had a rough second half. It was still an impressive showing for a 21-year-old at the major league level. There’s star potential for anyone with this combination of raw power, speed and arm talent — particularly with a switch-hitter who can play on the left side of the infield. De La Cruz’s consistency was behind that of most of his rookie teammates, though.

It’s hard to imagine the Reds starting De La Cruz back in Triple-A to begin next season. They’ll need a spot for McLain, however, and Marte certainly didn’t play his way down. There’s also an incentive for the Reds to carry Marte, who retains his rookie eligibility, on next year’s Opening Day roster. If they carry him for a full service year and he wins Rookie of the Year, they’d receive an extra draft choice via the Prospect Promotion Incentive.

That surplus is before getting to the player who was Cincinnati’s best position player not too long ago: second baseman Jonathan India. The 2021 Rookie of the Year hit .244/.338/.407 in 529 trips to the plate. That’s league average production, his second straight season in that range. While India started the season strong, his offense dipped by June. He lost a good portion of the second half battling plantar fasciitis in his left foot.

India consistently receives below-average grades from public metrics for his second base defense. It’s a bat-first profile and he hasn’t hit especially well since his debut campaign. There’s an argument he should be the odd one out of the very talented infield. His name surfaced in a trade rumor around the deadline, though subsequent reports quickly shot down the likelihood of Cincinnati moving him.

While the 26-year-old again stands as an on-paper trade candidate, there’s no guarantee the Reds will seriously consider offers. India is one of the more experienced players on a very young roster and multiple Cincinnati players have suggested he’s a key figure in the clubhouse. India conceded he was affected by the speculation he’d be dealt around the deadline, even taking a game off for a mental reset. The Reds may not want to move him, especially since his trade value is at its lowest ebb during his major league career. Between his defensive grades and middling offense over the final few months, India isn’t likely to bring back an above-average starting pitcher with multiple years of club control — even in a down free agent infield class.

Former #2 overall pick Nick Senzel opened the season at third base after struggling in center field in prior years. He started the year strong, at least against left-handed pitching, but his bat tailed off in the second half. Cincinnati sent him down for a couple weeks in August. While he finished the season on the big league roster, there’s a good chance he’s traded for a minimal return or simply non-tendered.

If the Reds hold the rest of their infielders, that could push Steer into the corner outfield. He’d likely play left field on most days. Will Benson and Jake Fraley each had strong results as left-handed hitting corner outfielders. The Reds shielded both players from left-handed pitching. Even with Steer seeing outfield reps, there’s room for a right-handed platoon bat.

Cincinnati brought in Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader off waivers as stopgaps in late August. Renfroe was quickly released, while Bader seems likely to sign with a team that can offer everyday center field reps. Someone like Robbie Grossman or Aaron Hicks — both switch-hitters who are better against lefty pitching — could make sense to fill that role. Grossman is likely to sign a one-year deal worth a few million dollars. Hicks is available to every club at the league minimum salary after being released by the Yankees, so his camp will sort through a number of offers at the same price in search of the ideal team fit.

TJ Friedl doesn’t receive the same amount of attention as his younger teammates, but he played at an All-Star level (.279/.352/.467 with 18 homers) in center field this year. He’s an excellent contact hitter with plus speed and solid defense. Friedl is somewhat quietly a very valuable player, one whom Bell can comfortably plug into a top-two spot in the lineup as a table-setter.

At age 28 and under club control for five more seasons, Friedl is unlikely to be an extension candidate. The Reds could have interest in trying to get a deal done with one or more of their early-mid 20s hitters. Steer is under control for five seasons. De La Cruz, McLain, Marte and Encarnacion-Strand are all controllable for six more years. Extensions for players with less than one year of MLB service are rare but not unheard of.

Ronald Acuña, Wander Franco and Corbin Carroll all signed nine-figure pacts before their first full year in the big leagues. Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert signed in the $50MM range before making their MLB debuts. The Reds don’t have anyone who’s yet established at the Acuña, Franco or Carroll level. Those players were all consensus top five prospects who’d found immediate MLB success. Something around Robert’s $50MM could be a reasonable proposal to De La Cruz or Marte if the Reds are interested in buying out two or three free agent seasons. McLain might be a trickier player to value, since he had more initial success than De La Cruz but wasn’t as highly-regarded as a prospect, but he’s also a potential candidate. Willingness to sign an early-career extension varies by player. It’s at least something the front office could consider.

It’s a little less stable on the pitching staff. They signed Hunter Greene to a $50MM guarantee in April. That’s their only contractual commitment outside of option buyouts, leaving open the possibility for more long-term deals. Something in the $50MM range also made sense for southpaw Nick Lodolo preseason. He’s coming off a year derailed by left shin injuries, so the Reds will probably wait on a long-term pact until he’s back on the mound.

24-year-old Andrew Abbott put himself in the conversation alongside Greene and Lodolo as potential rotation cornerstones. The 6’0″ southpaw turned in a 3.87 ERA through his first 21 major league starts, striking out 26.1% of opponents in the process. It’s a little early to consider Abbott an extension candidate — teams tend to wait on starting pitchers until they have a year-plus of service time — but he is clearly in the ’24 rotation and could be the Opening Day starter.

Adding a mid-rotation veteran should be the front office’s main priority. Greene and Lodolo battled injuries and inconsistency. Abbott set a career mark with 163 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues this summer. Graham Ashcraft eats innings but had an up-and-down season. While Brandon Williamson found his stride nicely in the second half of his rookie campaign, his minor league track record is mixed. Journeyman Ben Lively faded after a nice start. Prospect Connor Phillips has huge stuff and whiff rates but control woes that lead some evaluators to point to a possible bullpen future.

The Reds can’t go into next year counting on each of Abbott, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Williamson to hold a spot all season. They’ll need more depth than they had this year, when they gave Luke Weaver 21 starts and turned to Lively and Luis Cessa a combined 18 times.

Cincinnati has spent less than $15MM in free agency in each of the last two offseasons. There’s no reason for that to continue given the clean payroll outlook. The contracts for Votto and Mike Moustakas are off the books aside from option buyouts. They have just over $16MM in 2024 commitments at present. It’s a solid but hardly overwhelming group of arbitration-eligible players.

The Reds aren’t going to make a play for Blake Snell or NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s difficult to project them as a candidate to top $100MM on Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola given their spending habits. Yet they’ve shown a willingness to go into the middle tier of the free agent market in prior offseasons, guaranteeing $64MM each to Moustakas and Nick Castellanos.

Old friend Sonny Gray will probably stretch beyond that number and cost a draft choice after rejecting a qualifying offer. Eduardo Rodriguez cannot receive the QO and could be available on a four-year pact in the $70-80MM range if he opts out of his deal with the Tigers. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are possibilities on a two or three-year deal.

Cincinnati could add a starter in free agency while also looking to the trade market. India could return a back-end type, even if he’s unlikely to get the ball rolling for someone like Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert. Dealing any of McLain, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Marte or De La Cruz ranges from unlikely to ’not happening,’ but they’d all have ample trade appeal. Perhaps the major league infield depth frees them to explore possibilities involving prospects Edwin Arroyo or Cam Collier for controllable rotation help.

They’ll also likely add in the bullpen. Cincinnati has a few solid arms but it’s a roughly average relief group overall. It’s anchored by All-Star closer Alexis Díaz. Deadline pickup Sam Moll is a good ground-ball lefty. Low-cost additions of Alex Young and Ian Gibaut have added middle relief depth. Fernando Cruz, Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone can all miss bats at a high level, although Cruz and Sims have scattershot command and Antone has battled forearm problems. Buck Farmer, who was second on the team with 75 relief innings, is headed to free agency.

Cincinnati won’t be in on Josh Hader, but they have the financial room to play in the lower to middle tiers. Jordan Hicks, Joe Jiménez, old friend Robert Stephenson and Pierce Johnson are all likely to land multi-year deals. Players like Ryne Stanek or Keynan Middleton could be available as one or cheaper two-year fliers.

Given the young talent on the roster and the payroll space, there’s more opportunity for the front office to add than has existed in quite some time. It’s an exciting time for Reds’ fans again. They were ahead of schedule in 2023 and came up a little bit short of the postseason. Next year’s team should have legitimate playoff aspirations from day one. It’s up to the front office to add the pitching necessary to make that happen.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Reds-centric chat on 10-04-23. Click here to view the transcript.