Getting swept out of the ALDS by the Rangers brought a sour end to an otherwise very successful season in Baltimore. The Orioles won 101 games to capture the AL East, and the best may be yet to come given all of the young talent still to emerge out of the loaded farm system.
Guaranteed Contracts
- James McCann, C: $12MM through 2024 ($8MM paid by the Mets, per the terms of their December 2022 trade)
- Felix Bautista, RP: $2MM through 2025
Other Financial Obligations
- Mychal Givens, RP: $2MM buyout of Orioles’ end of $6MM mutual option (Givens was released in August)
Total 2024 commitments: $5MM
Total future commitments: $8MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Anthony Santander (5.162): $12.7MM
- Danny Coulombe (5.008): $2.2MM
- John Means (5.007): $5.93MM
- Ryan O’Hearn (4.170): $3MM
- Cedric Mullins (4.078): $6.4MM
- Austin Hays (4.057): $6.1MM
- Dillon Tate (4.048): $1.5MM
- Jorge Mateo (4.000): $2.9MM
- Ryan Mountcastle (3.105): $4.2MM
- Cionel Perez (3.085): $1.3MM
- Cole Irvin (3.083): $1.8MM
- Keegan Akin (3.079): $800K
- Jacob Webb (3.046): $1.2MM
- Ramon Urias (3.025): $2MM
- Tyler Wells (2.132): $2.3MM
- Ryan McKenna (2.123): $740K
- Non-tender candidates: Tate, McKenna, Akin
Free Agents
The O’s turned the corner on their rebuild by winning 83 games in 2022, yet general manager Mike Elias has thus far taken a conservative response to his team’s breakout. He still opted to sell at the 2022 trade deadline, yet the deals of Trey Mancini to the Astros and (especially) Jorge Lopez to the Twins now look quite shrewd in the bigger picture. Elias then made mostly short-term moves last winter, adding Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens on one-year contracts and acquiring James McCann in a salary dump of a trade with the Mets. Even at this past season’s trade deadline, with the Orioles posting one of baseball’s top records, Elias picked up the struggling Jack Flaherty rather than a more prominent starting pitcher. As it turned out, Flaherty didn’t pitch well in Baltimore, and fell out of the rotation entirely by September.
The big question facing the Orioles this winter is simply, will Elias and team ownership get more aggressive in adding win-now pieces to what might be a burgeoning powerhouse? Some caution was understandable after 2022 since Elias probably didn’t want to jump to conclusions that his team was ready to contend….yet a 101-win season now removes all doubt.
Baltimore’s rebuilding process led to a corresponding slash of spending, as the Orioles have been a bottom-four payroll team in each of the last five seasons. As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Orioles’ Opening Day payroll in 2023 was slightly under $61MM, and the second-lowest total of any team. Based on their negligible long-term salary commitments and the projections of their arbitration-eligible players, the O’s have only $58.5MM lined up for their 2024 payroll, and even that number should be a bit smaller in the event of a few non-tenders from the arb class.
It’s worth remembering that during their last contention window in the mid-10s, the Orioles were regularly in the top half in league spending, and ranked as high as ninth in Opening Day payroll (a little under $147.7MM) heading into the 2016 season. This doesn’t mean that the Orioles need to vault back up to that number over the course of one winter, but an argument can surely be made that Elias and the team have earned a larger investment in their on-field endeavors.
Unfortunately, ownership’s top priority right now might not be on the team itself. The Orioles and the state of Maryland reached a “memorandum of understanding” in September that laid the groundwork for the O’s to remain in Baltimore for the next 30 years, in addition to a wider-ranging project that will see extra land surrounding Camden Yards be redeveloped into something of a ballpark village, akin to the Battery area adjacent to the Braves’ Truist Park. While there seems to be an understanding in place between the team and civic officials that the deal will be completed soon, the fact remains that the agreement isn’t yet set in stone, even with the Orioles’ current least at Camden Yards expiring on December 31.
As such, it doesn’t seem like the player payroll will get any major boost until these future revenue streams have been firmly secured, or even until the revenues start rolling in for the team. “I don’t think you should run losses. I think you should live within your means and within your market,” club chairman/CEO John Angelos told the New York Times’ Tyler Kepner in August. In regards to player salaries, Angelos explained “let’s say we sat down and showed you the financials for the Orioles. You will quickly see that when people talk about giving this player $200MM, that player $150MM, we would be so financially underwater that you’d have to raise the prices massively. Now, are people going to come and pay that?….But really that’s just one team. What I’m really trying to think about is macro.”
Angelos’ interview quickly became infamous among Baltimore fans, and may have halted any speculation that the team might pursue contract extensions with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, or any other Orioles blue-chipper youngsters. Or, that the O’s will make a big splash on a top-tier free agent this offseason as a veteran leader for its young core. This doesn’t mean that the payroll won’t go up to some extent, as the Orioles did at least increase spending by around $17MM from 2022 to 2023. But, if the front office is still being limited in what it can spend, Elias will have to get creative in adding some needed pieces to the roster.
The bright side for Elias is that his roster might already be pretty set. The Austin Hays/Cedric Mullins/Anthony Santander outfield can return intact, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn can split first base and DH duties with O’Hearn chipping in as a corner outfielder, Rutschman is locked in at catcher, Henderson will play every day at either third base or shortstop, and some combination of Westburg, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo can handle second base and the other infield position that Henderson isn’t playing.
If this wasn’t enough, top prospects Heston Kjerstad, Joey Ortiz, and Colton Cowser all made their MLB debuts in 2023, and 2019 second-round pick Kyle Stowers is part of the outfield picture. And if that wasn’t enough, the O’s also have Jackson Holliday (the top prospect in baseball) perhaps ready to make his debut as early as Opening Day, not to mention the likes of Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, Dylan Beavers, and Jud Fabian also knocking on the door for big league playing time.
Not all of these prospects will pan out, of course, and different rival teams undoubtedly have their own varying opinions on minor leaguers throughout the Orioles’ farm system. But, it isn’t a stretch to say that Baltimore has the prospect depth to get involved in talks about almost any available trade target in baseball, thus giving Elias a way to add premium talent without spending big on a notable free agent contract. In fact, the O’s could even explore adding a high-priced trade target and have the other team cover most of the player’s salary, provided the Orioles are willing to up the amount of young talent they gave up in return.
Likewise, the Orioles’ faith in their youngsters could also turn some of their own more experienced players into trade chips. If the O’s think Mayo is ready to contribute right away in the corner infield picture, they could look to trade Mountcastle to a team in need of first base help. If Westburg is seen as an everyday player and Holliday is coming quickly, one of Urias or Mateo could be dealt to an infield-needy club. Kjerstad or Cowser might be able to step into an outfield role, thus making Mullins, Hays, or (most likely of the group) Santander available.
Santander’s projected $12.7MM arbitration salary puts him on pace to be the team’s highest-paid player in 2024, and he is set to enter free agency in the 2024-25 offseason. As productive a player as Santander still is, if Baltimore doesn’t see him as part of the future, now might be the time to sell.
With so much position-player depth still in the pipeline, odds are that the Orioles will be wary about adding an everyday-type of player in trades or free agency, as they either don’t want to block a prospect at a certain position, or give up assets to address a position when an internal answer might already be in place. One possible exception might be Aaron Hicks, whose path to re-signing with Baltimore might only come if one of the Santander/Mullins/Hays trio is traded. Since the Yankees are still footing the bill on Hicks’ contract for the next two seasons, Hicks can sign for just a minimum contract in free agency, thus giving him the freedom to pick any contender he wants for 2024 or beyond. Considering how Hicks revived his career after joining the O’s this year, one would imagine he’d certainly have interest in a reunion, and the Orioles might also see Hicks as a needed veteran voice if another outfielder was indeed moved.
If Baltimore does make a blockbuster trade this winter, it is much more likely that it will involve adding a starting pitcher. To be clear, the Orioles’ rotation is only a weak link in relative terms — as MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently observed, the pitching staff improved as the season went on, which augurs well for 2024. The highly-touted Rodriguez got better and better during his rookie year, the O’s will have a full year of John Means now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery, and Kyle Bradish was quietly one of the better starters in all of baseball.
With this trio, the solid Dean Kremer, and Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann, and DL Hall all battling for a fifth starter’s job, that’s not a bad amount of depth already in the fold. And, of course, there’s some help on the farm, with Seth Johnson, Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott all likely to be in line for MLB innings next season. However, even with the caveat that the Rangers’ mighty lineup can make a lot of pitching staffs look bad, the playoffs indicated that Baltimore doesn’t yet have a true frontline rotation.
Re-signing Gibson wouldn’t be too expensive a gambit, yet it can be argued that a mid-rotation arm who can eat innings might not be a priority considering how the rest of the staff developed. For a division winner looking to contend for a championship, the Orioles could aim higher at a true ace. Signing a Yoshinobu Yamamoto or a Blake Snell in free agency doesn’t seem feasible given how the O’s don’t seem willing to spend at that level yet, but the trade market presents some interesting options.
Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber are widely seen as two of the winter’s prime candidates, as both pitchers are a year away from free agency. Brandon Woodruff’s shoulder surgery might change the equation of the Brewers’ willingness to move Burnes, yet Milwaukee is always in need of the kind of controllable, MLB-ready young players that the Orioles can provide. Bieber isn’t quite the clear-cut ace he was in his Cy Young-winning prime, yet he would be a nice addition to Baltimore’s rotation, and the Guardians are in sore need of hitting help (particularly in the outfield). The question here would be how much would the Orioles be willing to give up for just one year of a pitcher’s services, if the O’s wouldn’t be open to re-signing either next offseason.
Tyler Glasnow, Zack Wheeler, and Max Fried are also pitchers slated for free agency after 2024, but they’re all less-likely fits for Baltimore. While the Rays will probably be open to moving Glasnow’s $25MM salary, moving him to their chief division rival seems improbable. The Phillies and Braves each have other rotation concerns this offseason that might preclude dealing an ace-level pitcher.
Moving onto more controllable arms, the Orioles still have lots of possibilities. The Mariners would want the moon and stars to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert, but Baltimore’s galaxy of elite prospects would get their attention. The White Sox want to return to contention next year but if their plans change, Dylan Cease could be available. The Tigers’ collection of young pitchers have been hampered by early-career injuries, but could be on Baltimore’s radar since Detroit needs some bats. The Dodgers have a lot of young arms who just made their MLB debuts in 2023, and if L.A. can obtain a veteran arm or two to shore up its rotation, the Dodgers could then address their needs around the diamond by discussing a swap of young pitching for young hitting with the O’s.
Baltimore’s pitching search may also have to expand to the bullpen, now that Felix Bautista will miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. The superstar closer was a huge part of the Orioles’ success, and there’s no easy replacement even if Yennier Cano (or Danny Coulombe or Bryan Baker) could step into the ninth-inning role in 2024. Trading premium prospects for relief pitching doesn’t seem too likely, in part because Wells or Hall might stick in the bullpen if they aren’t needed for rotation work, and because Elias has been so adept at finding and developing relievers.
While that knack for finding hidden gems isn’t easily replicated, the Orioles are probably more likely to again target relievers who haven’t quite emerged at the MLB level yet, despite some quality stuff and upside. The O’s made such an acquisition in landing Shintaro Fujinami from the Athletics back in July, and while Fujinami didn’t pitch great in Baltimore, the club might consider bringing him back on an inexpensive deal for a second look.
All in all, the Orioles figure to be involved in any number of trade rumors this winter, as rival clubs will undoubtedly be coming calling about their prospects and Elias will surely make some inquiries of his own. The success of the rebuilding project seems to have outpaced Angelos’ readiness (or willingness) to start boosting payroll, yet there’s no easier path to greater revenues than a championship-level team. A spending increase to even the $100MM mark would give Elias all the more flexibility to add what might only be some finishing touches on a World Series contender.
In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held an Orioles-centric chat with MLBTR readers. Click here to read the transcript.
11:30 p.m. chat? Too late for my blood.
Oops, that’s supposed to be 11:30am. The time has been fixed!
I prefer 11:30 pm.
I am still of the mindset, and really now more than ever
Resign Jack Flaherty to a one year deal and try and fix him
As for anyone else, I am not sure
I have a terrible feeling that the Cardinals fully intend to bring Jack back. I have an even worse feeling that they intend to prove their willingness to spend by splurging on an over-market, multi-year deal for Flaherty.
Flaherty wants to go to California if he can. Dodgers have a track record to go for that type of rehab project. That’s the spot I’d put my money on.
I don’t think the Orioles or Flaherty have the interest to return.
If Flaherty had pitched well and had his choice of destinations, I also believe he would head to the west coast. However, at this point, he’s going to go to the highest bidder.
Mo has a strange fascination with Jack.
I think the Cardinals will blow him away with an offer and expect all the fans to rejoice his return.
I think Jack will hit the IL about 7 minutes after the ink dries on the contract.
I think if anybody gives him a multi-year contract then yeah it’d be tough for him to decline. But I think he’s a prime candidate for a 1 year deal. I have a hard time believing he gets more than that.
I don’t think the Dodgers can take that risk. Too many Qs on the rotation already.
What does a sane offer to Flaherty look like. 2/20m?
I am not sure, if the Cardinals will do that
Of course, I’m not sure what the Cardinals will do either, but……..
They have effectively painted themselves into another corner by announcing their intention to bring in 3 starters.
People seem to assume that Nola will leave Philly and I’m not so sure that happens.
Texas will probably be inclined to sign Monty long term after a strong post season.
And so on and so on. John Mozeliak loves Jack Flaherty and he loves the marketability of nostalgia. Now Jack doesn’t really inspire the same kind of nostalgic sentiment in fans that Mo might be hoping for, but that doesn’t mean he won’t try.
They didn’t need to announce it. Everyone knew.
Flaherty wants a multi-year deal that we could easily just spend on a better and more proven pitcher with a higher floor.
Well, what he wants and what he gets….
This is a pretty good piece, but I’m not sure how you leave Jordan Westburg out of a 2024 discussion. He’s clearly the third best prospect after Adley and Gunnar, noting that Kjerstad could jump into that discussion.
But, enough already with starters being the weak link. Are you seriously saying two games in a playoff series determine that. Yes they need to replace Gibson innings and one more veteran would be nice, but as noted Grayson and Bradish are a legit one two and healthy means gives them three front line starters.
After that Kremer was a very solid 3/4 level starter but ran out of gas in September. That needs to be addressed but one bad game against the rangers doesn’t negate a summer of solid work. Even w a rough April and September he was at worst league average.
Wells was outstanding in the first half and then became fatigued. Personally, I think he should be the closer next year in Bautista’s absence. We saw in the playoffs how dominant he can be, but it doesn’t seem they are headed that way.
The real weakness is bullpen depth. In the Ranger series they had one bad start. They lost the first two games because Hyde went with Webb (grand slam) and Baker (walk the bases loaded). Using these two guys in those spots highlights where the weakness was, but because of Felix and to a lesser extent Cano and Coulombe the media likes to think they have a solid pen. Now without Felix, the pen will be really weak if they don’t add to it.
Bottom line the piece is correct they need at least one starter assuming Gibson is gone, and depending on injuries maybe one at the deadline, but they need two or three fresh bullpen arms.
I don’t think the O’s need another Kyle Gibson type starter. Means,G-Rod, Bradish, and Kremer are locked in.
Hall, Wells, and Irvin should be enough to handle the 5th slot. Team looks a lot better if we have a TOR guy to slot in that rotation but a Gibson type isn’t really necessary in my opinion.
I’m not sure I agree that Bradish and Rodriguez are already a “legit: 1-2 starter tandem. Could be wrong, but Bradish has only done it for one year and Rodriguez had a 1.34 WHIP. Sure Bradish could repeat and Rodriguez could take a step forward, but adding another 2-3 level starter (or more) would certainly be welcome.
In a perfect world—we’d be able to make a deal for Tarik Skubal.
I like him a lot. Detroit needs bats. That’d probably cost us a few top prospects. But Cowser,Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo, and Ortiz can’t all play here.
I really love Mayo and think he’s gonna be a stud. If we could swing something without him (and obviously Holliday is completely off the table) I’d be all for it.
Agreed. IMO, Skubal should be our top target.
Cat wait to see a healthy Seth Johnson in ST and at what level he starts out at.
Don’t get your hopes up for a debut next year, he’s still recovering from injury for the most part.
Hey Shiny, what’s your source? I’m reading Seth is healthy. At minimum he starts in Bowie. But again, curious to see how he fares with ST experience
Skubal is one of the few pitchers that I’d be willing to shell out two of Cowser Kjerstad or Westburg (or one of Mayo or Basallo) for. Absolute stud southpaw with electric stuff. Unfortunately, Detroit is exiting their rebuild next year so I don’t see how they trade him (especially since they’re more likely to extend him).
I don’t see the Tigers looking to move Skubal. Nor do I see them seeking to attain more prospects at this point.
As far as bats they re stuck with Baez for the time being. Then they have a young core Greene, Carpenter, Torkelson, Vierling, P.Meadows, McKinstry and they ll likely be adding Malloy and Nevin to the big league team.
Now I don’t think they re expecting to contend immediately. BUt it appears they re ready to start seeing what all the young pieces can do, not continue to stock farm system. Just seems trading Skubal goes against where they re at the rebuild timeline.
Tyler Nevin? That’s not a prospect. Nor is Mckinstry. Vierling isn’t very good either.
The O’s prospects are for the most part ready to contribute to a major league team. I don’t know that they would like to move Skubal but if the prospects of getting 3 potential everyday position players is on the table—That might be enticing enough to pull the trigger.
The tigers need a lot of bats. Aside from Tork, Greene, and Carpenter—IDK about any of them.
Nevin is about ready to contribute on MLB team just as McKinstry will b contributing again. Vierling actually really started to show some promise in the 2nd half. Point being they are at a point they want to see what some of young bats can do at big league level not continue sticking the farm.
I agree O’s have a lot to offer talent wise with position player prospects. I just think what O’s are willing to move does not align well with what the Tigers are currently looking to add.
Malloy has tire up Triple A and will likely start season on Tigers. Colt Keith, Jung, and Max Clark all likely to see some time on Tigers roster this season.
They are no longer in a tear it down phase of a rebuild. What they’d be looking for is big league ready talent. And I just don’t see O’s looking to part with that, nor should they.
As much as I love the O’s collection of minor leaguers I’d be pissed if the Tigers traded Skubal. He is the one guy they should not trade. Maybe if they want to offer something crazy like Basallo, Mayo and Norby, but we all know that’s not happening. Baltimore needs to treat their unproven surplus minor league talent as capital if they want to acquire a good proven starter. There is buzz about the Tigers making Matt Manning available. When he is on the mound he is pretty solid, but he’s no Skubal so the price might be right, and they have young bullpen arms to offer too. .
@Motor City BB.
I’d be good with the Orioles moving Mayo, Norby, and Basallo for Skubal and a couple young/controllable ‘stuff’ bull pen arms or International prospects that are years away from MLB. This is the type of deal I think the Orioles should be looking too make. And LHP TOR controllable healthy players are some the most expensive to acquire…a deal can be made.
But I don’t think Detroit should make that deal…they’d need a TOR arm then too.
Mark mentioned Seattle starters Gilbert and Kirby being expensive to acquire in a trade, and he’s right, but I think Seattle might be more open to moving Kirby than fans think.
He has one more year of control (5) than Gilbert and put up stellar numbers. He also has a bit of that Sale mindset in him. That benefited Seattle in the 2022 postseason.
He would cost Holliday and probably one of Cowser/Mayo/Kjerstad. Maybe even two of those guys with a younger Mariner prospect included, such as Locklear or Gonzalez.
I have no idea how desperate Baltimore will be to save money, but this is the kind of swap Seattle might be exploring.
There’s no way Elias is going to move the #1 prospect in baseball. For sure no way he’s moving him + more.
The M’s and O’s could lineup but both are ultimately trying to win a WS next year. Those moves are tough to make. I’d give up a combination of any non-Holliday prospects for him but I don’t see how Seattle is better off without him at the top of their rotation.
There’s cleaner moves to be made.
Seattle can attract/sign pitchers. They can develop pitchers. What they have yet to do is prove they can develop hitters. Julio is a generational talent, and other than him, it’s just Cal who has been a successful regular.
Kirby is a front-line starter. Those types of pitchers cost elite talent. I would perfectly understand if Elias has Holliday off-limits, but that would be a fair request.
I don’t expect a deal with Baltimore to happen, but I think it’s interesting that Seattle has their own promising top-50 SS prospects in Young and Emerson. Both are still 1-3 years out, but one could arguably be used in a package to get help for 2024.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we do see Kirby traded somewhere.
Kremer, Bradish, Gibson, Irvin, and Wells all heavily outperformed their expected stats and are shoe-ins to regress to some extent in terms of BABIP luck. Frankly, starters are more important, as well as much harder to find, than good relievers by the way.
Shoe in to regress? Expected stats don’t really mean much. Most, if not all those guys have proven themselves for multiple years. Not sure why anyone would expect them to regress
Kremer 2nd season of 20+ starts and 3rd of 10+. And Kremer did regress some this season. Bradish it was his 2nd actual season, but I think the progress he’s made is sustainable. Wells, 2nd season as a starter and he looks like his #s will regress to an extent. G-Rod, first season.
Not sure I’d say any of those 4 have truly proven themselves for multiple years. I’d say Bradish to an extent has but that’s about it. G-Rod taking the next step in developing would be huge for their rotation.
@Tiger3232; agreed, jury still out on these 4 SPs. So repeat of last year? Pay Gibson for what he’s worth. Eats innings and a senior guy the rest of the staff looks up to.
I’m thinking if they extend anyone; its Santander and Mullins. Why? Their monetary value has a good chance of falling within the owner’s budget constraints … and they are proven producers and winners.
I was unimpressed by Westburg. I think if the coaches should stand him up a bit out of his current slump-shouldered stance, he might not hit as many weak, soft fly balls to the outfield. To me, Kjerstad, Mayo and Basallo are all far more promising than Westburg is. Even Norby is more promising, since he is a real hitter. Westburg’s in a tier below with Stowers, Cowser, Ortiz, Fabian. I will grant that Westburg looked better defensively than his reputation.
Nice take Ra. Interesting analysis on the Westburg swing. Yep, something looks off there.
The only 3 newbies over past 2 seasons that look comfortable at the plate to me are Gunnar, Adley and super utility guy Terrin. Don’t fall asleep on Vavra.
Mark,
Bryan Baker in a 9th inning role? lmao
More likely to be non tendered than given that kind of work.
Thank you — I didn’t think I was the only one to catch that. Baker is not going to go from bouncing between Norfolk and Baltimore in 2023 then follow that up in 2024 by landing a 9th inning spot to hold the fort down while Bautista’s on rehab.
Yea I was wondering the same thing. Baker was terrible and has a better chances to be pitching on another team then to close
Baker and Baumann both.
Reds and Orioles are in similar situations.
The difference is that the Orioles went out to get the pitcher they needed in Flaherty when the Reds did not. I think that will be the difference between the two going forward as well.
Flaherty was not the pitcher that the Orioles NEEDED, he was just another “let Chris Holt cook” reclamation project that failed miserably.
At least there was an effort made rather than none. That was more the point.
There wasn’t all that much made available either.
I would strongly prefer a starter up there at the Bradish/Rodriguez level. Yes, it means spending or trading. That means not spending $10M on a below average starter in Gibson. It also means 3 pitchers who are probably in the top third at least in the AL, Means who gets outs, and Kremer who is average. That’s a decent rotation. If I’m not sold on any rotation candidate its Wells, who is a softer tossing guy who gets hit hard and gives up HR my mind keeps flashing JEFF BALLARD, and we all remember what happened to Ballard after one good season with underlying bad signs like that. Hall is intriguing, if you stretch him out does he get injured again or is he a potential closer candidate for 2024 as he showed overpowering type stuff down the stretch.
They don’t need to spend $8M on Adam Frazier and a .300 OBP when they have Westburg, Holliday, and Norby in the mix, with Urias as the UIF.
They probably won’t spend $12.7M on Santander with Kjerstad, Cowser, and possibly Stowers (who took a step back in 2023) in the mix, along with O’Hearn maybe earning additional AB. Santander is an attractive trade candidate. I could even see them trying to trade Hays if they think they have enough MLB ready guys (that won’t go over well, but there are only 3 OF slots available)
Between Santander, Gibson, and Frazier, that saves $30M, plenty for a starting pitcher of very good caliber and then not breaking the bank on signing some of the other arb-eligible guys.
Extend the young players if you can NOW. (I forget, one of Rutschman or Henderson has Boras so that won’t happen there).
The team needs to move past carrying guys like Mateo who can’t hit at the MLB level or McKenna who isn’t good enough to even be the 4th OF.
There are way more young MLB caliber position players than there are slots at Camden Yards. Dealing a couple of them to solidify 2024-26 won’t choke the pipeline. Hoarding them all in the long run is a bad move both for the team and them.
The fact that this article mentions; Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, Bryan Baker, Cole Irvin (xERA around 6), Bruce Zimmerman, and Seth Johnson; as if any of these guys are good players is hilarious to me.
Kremer had an xERA over 5 btw.
I’d like to know Kremer’s xERA over the last 5 months of the season. After a poor April, he brought his real ERA down by 2.55 runs! Impressive no matter how you slice it.
Wells has a true 5 pitch mix. I don’t think he’s a front of the rotation guy but he could absolutely put up better numbers than Kremer.
You can’t expect him to front the rotation. If anyone has those ideas—that’s where you end up disappointed.
Yeah, the comparison to Ballard is stupid and indefensible. Wells was ~ 9 k/9 before the dead arm. Ballard was among the lowest K rates in the majors, which followed one of the lower k rates among minor league starters.
Brian – what’s concerning about Wells is his hard hit percentage. 1.9 HR/9 was easily the worst of the contenders (25 HR allowed in 117 IP). FIP 4.98 well above ERA. Hard hit % still up at 39%, BABIP of .200 and basically 50/50 groundball/flyball suggests he got a lot of hard hits right at one of the league’s best defenses. Certainly given # of years of team control he’ll get a chance but I think of any of the contenders he is the highest risk to get lit up. I still think of Jeff Ballard once the league figured him out.
Kremer can be an average starter, he showed it after the all star break. DL Hall may or may not be able to be stretched out into a starter but down the stretch he made me think he could fill in at closer.
But we’re also talking about who should be the #5 starter, not at the top of the rotation as we would in previous years. Get a guy up there toward the Bradish/Rodriguez level plus Means and that’s a good first 4.
While Angelos’ assessment of the team spending outlook is bleak to cautious, it does shoot down many of the armchair GMs who screech about concession, merchandise, and ticket prices having nothing to do with payroll. It came from the horses mouth, and going forward I will direct those clowns to this article.
Every income stream has to do with payroll, including local TV deals, which is usually the big difference in spending.
Precisely! It’s basic economics, but some people have been led to believe otherwise.
The Orioles do not run concessions. Levy Restaurants won the bid for 2023. They and subcontracting vending companies are in charge of pricing.
Right, because Angelos was totally transparent and showed us all the O’s financials…oh wait, that’s right, he didn’t do that. So you’re just accepting his claims uncritically.
You’re awfully quick to call others “clowns” but you seem to be the one with the makeup and the red nose and the tiny car, Solaris. Just because you lick the owners’ boots doesn’t mean they’re going to give you anything.
Why would you direct people to quotes from a known liar like John Angelos? Surely you are not simply taking him at his word just because it reinforces your preconceptions…
It’s not limited to Angelos but he is a primary example…
If these rich guys weren’t making money off the sports teams they own, they would not own them.
It’s that simple.
The only difference is some owners aren’t satisfied with making a lot they want to be like C. Montgomery Burns and just make everyone else miserable while they do it.
Sign Snell
Sign Montgomery
Sign Hader
> Sign (3 top free agents) …
In regards to player salaries, Angelos explained “let’s say we sat down and showed you the financials for the Orioles. You will quickly see that when people talk about giving this player $200MM, that player $150MM, we would be so financially underwater”
Not gonna happen.
Orioles sat around 100 mill last year. 76 in active player salaries
Assuming 20-25 mill for those 3. You mean the Orioles can’t afford a 150-160 active mill payroll? I find that hard to believe. Sounds more like an owner being cheap than anything.
> You mean the Orioles can’t afford
> a 150-160 active mill payroll?
The owner is quoted as saying big deals aren’t going to happen. They might be able to bid on one of those players. But all 3??? You do understand those players are going to be in very high demand, right? Montgomery may not even leave Texas. Snell will be closer to $30MM/yr than $20MM to 25MM/yr. Who knows what Hader fetches with so much demand for relievers. Pierce Johnson just got $7MM/yr to keep him from being a free agent and he’s been inconsistent in the past.
Sorry, I just don’t see it happening but I hope they sign in Baltimore as opposed to many other places.
Probably right.
I see something like 8/250 for Snell
Montgomery 7/210
Hader 6/120
Im not arguing about who they sign. I am arguing Orioles should be able to afford spending to improve the roster.
Would it be awesome to sign all 3? Sure
Is it realistic? Probably not.
Should Orioles spend to improve the roster? Yes.
Should the Orioles overpay in a bidding war? No
Should they make a competitive offer? Yes.
Okay that’s different, then.
Anyway, good luck
Montgomery had a hell of a run with the rangers but there’s no way in hell he gets a penny over the Patrick Corbin deal. I’m surprised there’s a chance he could a deal in that range but his postseason work has been nice for Texas.
He won’t sniff $200
I have no clue how much Monty is going to cost but Snell and Hader are going to be $20m AAV bare minimum (obviously Snell is going to far exceed that). With how well he performed in the playoffs, Monty might approach $25m AAV as well. Better to go after either a short term contract at just under $20m AAV like Eduardo Rodriguez, or go after a lefty with great upside like Shota Imanaga who will command around $15m AAV
The issue with Baltimore is not the annual salary. I believe they could go to $140MM with some room to grow after, it’s who can you sign which will drive the payroll up that won’t fall into Angelos’ long term risk aversion?
Sonny Gray is a good target for Baltimore, but I’m not sure Gray would feel the same. Gray won’t command too high of an AAV and he won’t command more than 4 years. Dylan Cease is a good target in the trade market. I think the White Sox will move him… if they’re smart, which is a big “if” for that organization.
White Sox wanted Jackson Holliday for Cease at the deadline (although I assume it was just to prevent any talks from happening). Either way you can’t convince me that Cease is worth more than one high-level prospect right now for his production on the mound.
I think Cease is a good trade target, not somebody I’d overpay to get. That said, he’s worth quite a bit. Baseballtradevalues has him at a market value of 50, which is typically what you’d see for an elite prospect. Probably have to do a Mayo & Povich type of trade to get Cease.
I’d trade Cowser for Cease in a heartbeat. Probably wouldn’t trade Holliday for any SP with less than five years control remaining. Even then, I’m not sure who that might be,
Teams avoid the long term risk by front loading contracts.
Who can they sign?
Of the 3 I’d pick Montgomery and Hader
Buy low candidates like Lucas Giolito, Michael Lorenzen, Chris Flexen ( i think seattle messed with him too much this year) makes sense
You also have 2nd tier guys like Alex Wood, Seth Lugo,
Flexen and Giolito, sure.
Absolutely zero interest in Lorenzen.
I’ve said for years these teams are idiots for not paying more up front and less on the back end of these long term deals. Or at the very least make it a bell curve.
Those idiot reams never learn. If only they read the comments here…
kidding
John Angelo’s is a crazy paranoid lying deluded fool.
The guy who promised a reporter last year he would “open the books” in two weeks. That reporter is still waiting.
Orioles fans will be gnashing their teeth for years…..
we beat you last year without payroll…Tampa has been doing it for years.
Sure, fans may be “gnashing their teeth’ but nobody really cares about seeing the financials. Fans care about winning, not P&L statements.
I’d like to see the Orioles go spend big but not sure thus is the off-season to do it. Maybe go trade for Bieber or Cease or some type of arm along those lines.
Cease isn’t good
Not true. 2nd in Cy in 2023. His rWAR last year would have been second amongst Orioles starters. He hit a couple rough patches last season but also had some hot streaks. At worst, he is “good.” Might be “very good” next year,
Orioles have so many good young players on minimal salaries, that their future should be great. But I have two concerns. The Orioles were somewhat lucky last year. They look more like a 90-95 win team, not a 101 win team. They can’t afford to get complacent. But the big concern is ownership. Angelos sets the tone for the entire organization, and that tone is rather negative. He is not someone I trust at all. Only time will tell whether he screws up the Orioles by refusing to spend, alienating fans, continuing to lie, etc.
If you watched the games, they looked exactly like a 100 win team. You are basing your argument solely on Pythag, which is junk science. Until they start competing based on run differential, Pythag means dick. WINS mean everything.
But yeah, John Angelos is shtt. He makes his father look like a Saint.
Elias and company have done an amazing job while sticking to their plans and not trying to overspend in free agency. I don’t expect that to change. I do expect that they will start having some long term contract discussions with their younger talented guys.
The big question for me is going to continue to be development of starting pitching. Maybe go and get a reclamation project starter in free agency that can eat some innings while providing quality starts.
On a side note, the Angelos family should probably avoid throwing out quotes like that in the future. It certainly doesn’t inspire confidence from your fans or the organization as a whole lol.
I don’t think another 5+ ERA pitcher is the way to go personally
For sure, but someone has to be available to throw some innings in case of injuries or in this years case with Wells (presumably) tiring from overuse. Though personally with the way the organization has scouted and developed in the years during the rebuild, I wouldn’t mind just giving one of those types of spots to a young guy from the minors.
There are exactly three “young guy(s) from the minors” who could start: Seth Johnson, Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott. I wouldn’t want to insert any of them into the rotation at this time. All three have to prove they deserve a promotion. They haven’t yet.
Yeah, Gibson was a crappy signing, even if he did have a couple good outings. He also had some abjectly terrible outings.
Mountcastle to Pirates for Jared Jones. Orioles make him their Closer, as his elite level fastball/slider combo is perfect for the role.
Who says no?
Guessing you are a Pirates fan. Jones had a 1.317 WHIP … in AAA! And a 1.330m WHIP over 3 minor league seasons. His 10ish K/9 probably drops below 9 in the majors. That’s not a guy ready for “closer” at the MLB level or even for mid-leverage situations. You’d have to add real value to make that trade happen. Jones would be the second part of a package for Mountcastle.
Mountcastle looks like he’s on a downhill slide. A high 7’s OPS at 1B doesn’t exactly scream “problem solved.”
Upon further review, Jones is too much for Mountcastle.
Regarding his supposed downhill slide, the ballpark change has suppressed his homeruns – and he has changed his approach to suit – as did his bout with vertigo. Even with vertigo destroying the first half of the season, he compiled a .356 xwOBA, which baseballsavant deems “Great.” But you know this already. /s
I duly felt “put in my place.” I mean that as a compliment. A well articulated response, all be it, a month late.
Re. “a month late,” I’m not on here often…
I will add that I am more sold now on Jones’ value than I was way back then. Looks like we both are open to growth. Good for us!
Everyone who has anything to do with the Orioles says no!
Tate hasn’t touched a baseball in months
Throughout Tate’s “rehab” I continued to get the strong feeling he was setting up for TJ surgery after the season. Since nothing has happened and nobody has spoken about what his final rehab status was I haven’t a clue what’s really wrong with him. We’ll know what the O’s think about his potential to return at the contract offer deadline.
Yeah, Omar I think you have a bad read on this one.
Tate’s potentially very damaged goods. If the org thinks he can be useful this year then they’ll tender a contract but he looked horrible and may have a more serious injury.
Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a non tender.
But the Orioles aren’t actually “invested” in Tate. No more so than they are invested in Bryan Baker. Tate made $1.5MM last year and would likely get a minimum of $2MM in arbitration. May not be that much, but Elias has to mind the pennies. Better to cut the cord and give him a minor-league ST invite; there’s a good chance he’d take it.
Gilbert or Kirby? These kind of stories are sad and silly. No way Seattle trades Gilbert or kirby (period) 1. Baltimore doesn’t have anything that Seattle would want. to make them trade, gilbert or kirby. 3. starting pitching is seattle strength. Seattle is not going to subtract from its strength. 4. Who would Replace the innings, they pitch? An expensive FA pitcher?
Might as well throw out Cole or Strider as a trade partner while you’re at it.
Agreed that the M’s aren’t trading either. However, the O’s have guys at the ML level and the high minors that would be very useful to Seattle.
Crazy to say otherwise.
The Tides’ lineup in the playoffs looked a lot like a legit MLB team’s.
You say that “starting pitching is seattle (sic) strength.” Teams deal from strength all the time. Teams rarely trade from their weaknesses, especially because other teams don’t want their weak players.
Copy Mayo was drafted out of the high school of death…..
What an odd comment to make. What does that have to do with the Orioles?
Whack job comment. You probably don’t know many players and prospects went there also.
His name is “Coby,” weirdo.
Gotta imagine they’ll be big players for Nola.
Doubt that.
Orioles will trade any/many Right handed bats to get a TOR SP. Or at least, I hope so.
It would actually likely be opposite of that. We have way more valuable (trade return wise) lefty bats than we know what to do with. Having said that if you can package Mountcastle in a deal for a top end starter, you do it in a heartbeat.
Yes, the lefty bats are very valuable. But Camden does nothing good for RHH’s and will hurt their value. Since RHH won’t help the Orioles, maybe they can help someone else. All the lefty bats are needed in Camden, their more valuable to the Orioles than any other team because of new Camden.
Mayo, Mounty, Hayes, Joey Ortiz, Urias, Mateo, Fabian…that’s plenty to get a TOR SP.
I have little faith it’ll happen, but it’s a dream…
Walltimore is an odd problem to have. I don’t have the numbers handy but I do not believe the impact was as great as many thought it would be. Sure it took away a few HR, but it also wasn’t a HR killer.
Also it’s not like we can just roll 9 left handed bats out there everyday at home. We seem to face a lot of LHP at OPACY, which is probably not coincidental. So either way, we still need to have a good mix of righty and lefty bats.
Mateo is a FA and will be gone btw. And Fabian is mostly lost at the plate and stalled once he got to Bowie. His trade value is not very high currently.
Mount Walltimore, they had said on the MASN broadcasts, now makes it the 29th hardest park to hit a HR in. It turned OPACY from 2nd best offensive park, into one of the more pronounced pitchers parks. It is a significant change. And a change that benefits LH pitching (as you mentioned) and hurts RH hitting.
Since there are more RH batters than LH batters in life/the league, LH batters are always more valuable, but in Baltimore now their value is maybe the highest in the league. Of course, Mike Elias knows that, and has proceeded accordingly in the draft.
If the Orioles wanna lineup of 9 LH hitters, it’s beneficial for them for 50% of the season. And Yankee Stadium and Fenway are pretty kind to LH hitters too. Don’t forget Switch Hitters, they are a better option than RH batters and offer the lineup protection.
And Mateo…not a free agent, read the above article. 2 years of control left…
You’re right on Mateo. My bad. Seems like he’s a non tender guy almost certainly. Much like last offseason and this seasons trade deadline, will very interesting to see what Elias does, or doesn’t do. I’m not expecting big money to be thrown around due to John Angelos.
ERod from Tigers would be a big upgrade. Too bad we gave him up years ago for left handed reliever Miller rental from Boston. Might take Tony Tater and a prospect from Norfolk. There is a log jam in outfield and infield with young talent coming up. Mateo, Urías, and McKenna probably not on roster in 24.
I would try to keep Hicks with Yanks paying most of salary.
Other than making a trade for a middle of the rotation starter I don’t see the O’s sound anything.
Hire your announcer back!
Correct me if I am wrong here, but a guy in Aaron Hicks’ situation stands to be paid how exactly?
1) Any team that signs him to any kind of salary from the minimum to infinity and he will be paid that much plus what he’s contractually owed by the Yankees? So a team could sign him to $10 million for 2024 and Hicks would be paid $10 million by that team and $10 million by the Yankees for $20 million total?
2) Any team that signs him the Yankees are relieved of whatever that salary amount is relative to what he’d be owed by them this year? So if he’s owed $10 million in 2024 by the Yankees and he’s signed for $5 million by a team, the Yankees now only owe him $5 million?
I know the likelihood is he signs with someone for the league minimum and the Yankees are relieved of that much of their obligation and owe the rest- so one team pays him $740,000 and the Yankees owe him the other $10,045,315 or whatever?
I think it’s like this. Iirc:
(and arguendo Hicks’ 2024 salary is $10m from NYY if nothing else happens).
1) and 2) A not-NYY team only has to pay Hicks the league minimum if they want him and he agrees. That amount and only that amount is cut from what the Yankees are required to pay him. HOWEVER, he doesn’t have to report for duty just because, say, Oakland would like to have his services. So, if Oakland wants him to join them it might have to tack on an additional $2m to get him off his couch, meaning the Yankees are relieved again only of the league minimum salary, Hicks gets $12m total, 10m from NYY, 2m from Oak. The Yankees get 750k from Oak, defraying the amount they pay Hicks to 9.25m.
The reason we don’t see this kind of thing is because players usually want to play. They want to play for a contract after their current deal expires. They want to prove their previous team wrong. Their wives want them out of the house.
Fwiw, it was genuinely funny to see Hick knock the stuffing out of the ball with Baltimore and put up 1.0 rWAR as a less than half-time player, but Baltimore’s best 5th OFer option for much of the 2nd half.
I give zero credit to a team that tanks year in and year out to manipulate the draft and get top prospects in return. Then you have an owner who says he’s not spending. The O’s and Elias are not the Rays. Manfred is a moron and MLB needs to out a ceiling on what you need to spend and stop letting teams manipulate a draft system that is broken.
Even the article points out that they spent many years in the top half of the league in payroll. From 2012-2016 they competed again. In the AL East if they would have spent anywhere near the other teams it would have got them 81 wins and a seat on the couch come October. They needed to reset and they did successfully. This isn’t a team that is constantly rebuilding and siphoning off revenue sharing. They should now ramp up spending but they are never going to be a team that sits above 200. I’d like to see them get to about 150 though
@ Franky,
So you give no credit to teams that do the best/smartest/legal thing for their Organization? You’d give the Rockies credit for never doing such, and finishing deadlast over the Astros or Nationals who won WS titles doing something that is allowed.
That’s a funny way to look at honor/respect/integrity; better to finish 5th worst consistently and help the clubs’ future less than loosing the most to help the most.
Noble suffering or smart success? I’ll take the success and leave the respect for loosing to others.
They’re still the Orioles lol over rated team where no prominent player wants to go and have their career die. They got lucky this year and will be back to normal next year garbage team as always
Somebody bitter about their 4th place team and bloated payroll
A starter or two, a couple competent relievers, and the Orioles should be good enough to run this team back. There are plenty of guys they can move to get the job done, and there is no rush. It’s best if they avoid dishing out big contracts unless they’re a good fit. They will have players to pay as their arbitration numbers boost their contracts.
“…Angelos explained “let’s say we sat down and showed you the financials for the Orioles…”
You mean, like Angelos twice insisted he would do in 2023 and never followed through?
This man cannot be trusted with his own words.