MLB’s best regular season team, the Braves were knocked out by the Phillies in a disappointing Division Series. They’ll bring back the majority of the roster to give things another go in 2024, although they could have a few changes outside the core.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Austin Riley, 3B: $197MM through 2032 (deal includes ’33 club option)
- Matt Olson, 1B: $132MM through 2029
- Spencer Strider, RHP: $74MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
- Sean Murphy, C: $69MM through 2028 (deal includes ’29 club option)
- Michael Harris II, CF: $67MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option; deal includes ’32 club option)
- Ronald Acuña Jr., RF: $61MM through 2026 (including buyout of ’27 club option; deal includes ’28 club option)
- Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $32MM through 2025
- Marcell Ozuna, DH: $19MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
- Ozzie Albies, 2B: $18MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option; deal includes ’27 club option)
- Travis d’Arnaud, C: $8MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)
- Orlando Arcia, SS: $5MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option)
- Tyler Matzek, LHP: $1.9MM through 2024 (deal includes ’25 club option)
Option Decisions
- Club holds $20MM option on RHP Charlie Morton
- Club holds $9MM option on LF Eddie Rosario
- Team/LHP Brad Hand hold $7MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
- Club holds $6MM option on RHP Collin McHugh ($1MM buyout)
- Club holds $5.75MM option on RHP Kirby Yates ($1.25MM buyout)
2024 financial commitments: $130.65MM
Total future commitments: $686.65MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- A.J. Minter (5.154): $6.5MM
- Max Fried (5.148): $14.4MM
- Yonny Chirinos (5.114): $2MM
- Michael Soroka (5.009): $3MM
- Nick Anderson (4.153): $1.6MM
- Nicky Lopez (4.139): $3.9MM
- Kolby Allard (3.162): $1MM
- Ben Heller (3.102): $900K
- Sam Hilliard (3.094): $1.1MM
- Michael Tonkin (3.074): $1MM
- Kyle Wright (3.062): $1.4MM
- Andrew Velazquez (3.033): $740K
- Huascar Ynoa (3.011): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Chirinos, Soroka, Lopez, Allard, Heller, Hilliard, Tonkin, Velazquez, Ynoa
Free Agents
For the second straight year, a Braves team that won 100+ games was vanquished by the Phillies in a four-game Division Series. While surely a frustrating endpoint for the organization and its fanbase, they’ll have another crack with the same key group of players that comprised this year’s most dominant regular season team.
In each of the past two winters, the Braves had a marquee impending free agent. There’s no one close to the level of Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson this winter, though they’re now just a year away from the potential departure of star southpaw Max Fried.
The most notable potential free agents among this year’s class fall into one of two categories: veterans whose contracts contain a club option or non-closing relievers. Charlie Morton is the biggest name in the former group. The Braves hold a $20MM option on the righty, who worked to a 3.64 ERA across 30 starts.
Morton turns 40 next month and has been noncommittal about his future for a few seasons. He’s clearly comfortable in Atlanta, signing successive one-year contracts going back to 2021. Morton has been reasonably effective that entire time, combining for a 3.77 ERA while taking the ball for 94 starts.
This past season didn’t end as Morton envisioned. He carried a 3.29 ERA into the final month but allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine in September. A minor injury to the index finger on his throwing hand ended his season, although he likely could’ve made it back had the Braves gotten to the NLCS.
The down finish might make the Braves reluctant to commit a $20MM salary. Even if Atlanta balks at that asking price, it stands to reason the sides would have interest in a slightly lesser figure if Morton wants to continue playing. Perhaps negotiating a new deal in the $15MM range could be mutually agreeable.
If Morton retires or signs elsewhere, Atlanta’s rotation depth would become a real question. Spencer Strider and Fried are an elite 1-2 combination. It tails off quickly. While Bryce Elder had a solid rookie season overall, the risk of his pitch-to-contact approach was demonstrated with a 5.11 ERA in the second half. Kyle Wright underwent shoulder surgery and will miss the entire season. Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa could return from Tommy John rehabs in the season’s first half; both right-handers had struggled before going under the knife. Allan Winans and Darius Vines seem better suited for depth roles.
Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd landed season-opening rotation spots this year. Both were hit hard and quickly lost their starting jobs. Michael Soroka pitched well in Triple-A but was tagged for a 6.40 ERA in seven big league appearances. His season ended in early September due to forearm inflammation. With a projected $3MM arbitration salary and enough service time that he can no longer be optioned to the minor leagues without his consent, he may not be tendered a contract. Late-season waiver claim Yonny Chirinos and trade returnee Kolby Allard could be non-tendered as well.
Among the in-house options, 20-year-old righty AJ Smith-Shawver is the most intriguing. He struck out over 31% of minor league opponents and earned his first major league call in May. He had an unspectacular 20:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over six MLB contests. That shouldn’t stake a firm claim to a rotation spot, but the Braves had sufficient faith to carry him on their playoff roster. Atlanta is aggressive enough in promoting young players that they could give Smith-Shawver a look early in the year.
That may also be true of 2023 first-round pick Hurston Waldrep. The Florida product made it as high as Triple-A Gwinnett in his draft year. He fanned a third of opponents with a 1.53 ERA in his first eight professional starts. In many organizations, Waldrep would’ve closed out the season in the low minors. The Braves move their top talents quickly, and while both Smith-Shawver and Waldrep presently have below-average control, they have strong enough arsenals that they could get on the radar.
Even if the Braves are confident in Smith-Shawver and/or Waldrep factoring in early in the season, they’ll need to bring in starting pitching. Atlanta has shied away from free agency in recent years, preferring to make their big strikes via trade and subsequent contract extensions.
The aren’t a ton of clear rotation trade targets. There’d been speculation about the Brewers trading one of Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes. With Woodruff potentially missing all of next season following shoulder surgery, he’s no longer a possibility. That might take Burnes off the table as well, since Milwaukee would take a major step back if they lose both of their top starters. The Guardians could move Shane Bieber, who’s projected for a $12.2MM salary in his final year of club control and missed most of the second half with forearm inflammation.
Teams will inquire with the White Sox about Dylan Cease, though it’s unclear if Chicago has the appetite for that kind of move. It’s a similar story with the Rays and Tyler Glasnow. Boston’s Nick Pivetta and Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill are potential targets among arbitration-eligible starters.
If the Braves can’t line up a trade, they should have room to go into free agency. They have just under $131MM committed to next year’s roster. The arbitration class should tack on around $25MM pending non-tenders. Exercising Morton’s option or negotiating a slightly lower salary could bring their expenditures to the $170-175MM range.
Atlanta carried an Opening Day payroll just above $203MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That’d leave around $25-30MM in spending room if they’re willing to repeat that level. It’s a similar story regarding the luxury tax threshold. The Braves exceeded the base threshold this year. Should they go past next year’s threshold — which begins at $237MM — they’d pay escalating penalties as a repeat payor.
Atlanta’s current CBT estimate sits somewhere in the $190-200MM range. (It’s higher than the actual payroll figure because the CBT calculation includes player benefits and is based off contracts’ average annual values.) The option price or a new deal for Morton could leave them between $20-30MM shy of the base threshold to begin the offseason. There’s nothing to suggest the $237MM CBT number represents a hard barrier for the organization, but it’ll likely be a factor in the front office’s decision-making.
A strike for Blake Snell or Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn’t the Braves’ typical operating procedure. Going into the middle tier of the market for someone like Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha should be viable. If Morton doesn’t return, that’d leave more payroll room if they wanted to make a run at Sonny Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez.
The front office figures to engage Fried’s camp in extension talks. The 2022 Cy Young runner-up is projected for a salary around $14.4MM in his final season of arbitration. He’s on track to reach free agency in advance of his age-31 campaign. Fried should top the six-year, $162MM guarantee that Carlos Rodón received last winter. The contract that Snell lands this offseason could set a new standard for Fried’s camp. The Braves have been the league’s most aggressive team in signing key players to extensions. The Freeman and Swanson scenarios demonstrate they’re not keen to throw top-of-the-market money at all their players, though.
Atlanta also figures to go into free agency for relief help. Joe Jiménez and deadline pickup Pierce Johnson are both headed to free agency. Jiménez had an excellent season and could find a three-year deal. The Braves never entrusted him with high-leverage work, so they seem unlikely to match that kind of commitment. Johnson was utterly dominant after coming off from the Rockies. Retaining him on a two-year pact could be viable.
The Braves could also re-sign Jesse Chavez, who consistently provides them with quality low-leverage innings on salaries barely above the league minimum. They have a pair of option decisions on Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates. The former is likely to be bought out after his strikeout rate plummeted this past season. They could retain Yates, who still has huge strikeout stuff, for an extra $4.5MM after accounting for the option buyout. Atlanta will decline its end of a $7MM mutual option on Brad Hand.
Raisel Iglesias is under contract for another two seasons as the closer. A.J. Minter is a high-leverage lefty. Tyler Matzek should be back after undergoing Tommy John surgery during the 2022 postseason. Yates, Nick Anderson and long man Michael Tonkin could all be retained. Rookie Daysbel Hernández made the playoff roster and offers a high-strikeout, high-walk option.
Even if they can re-sign Johnson, the Braves should add one or two arms to the late innings. A nine-figure strike for Josh Hader seems unlikely, but anyone else in the class could fit. Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López are among the higher-upside arms in the free agent group. Trade possibilities include Scott Barlow and Kyle Finnegan.
The lone option decision on the position player side is a $9MM provision for Eddie Rosario. It’s a borderline price for the streaky left fielder, who had a .255/.305/.450 showing with 21 home runs in 516 plate appearances this year. While his overall production was average, Rosario’s in-season performance was extremely volatile. He was one of the best hitters on the planet in June, excellent in August, and well below-average in every other month.
If the Braves move on, Tommy Pham, Michael Conforto (if he opts out of his deal with the Giants) and Mark Canha (pending a club option with Milwaukee) could be free agent targets. Alex Verdugo and Ramón Laureano could be on the trade market.
Aside from the Rosario decision, the starting lineup is in place. Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. will hold the other outfield spots. Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley are locked in around the infield. Marcell Ozuna mashed from May onwards and silenced early-season speculation about his future at designated hitter. Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud make for an excellent catching tandem, Murphy’s late-season offensive swoon notwithstanding.
No one would’ve pegged the Braves as a suitor for Murphy going into last winter, so a trade to add to the lineup can’t be entirely ruled out. Acquiring a notable starting pitcher feels more likely given the offense’s strength, however. Should they try to bring in a starter with multiple seasons of club control — thereby providing some cover if Fried walks next offseason — they could dangle middle infielder Vaughn Grissom.
Arcia’s emergence at shortstop kept Grissom mostly in Triple-A this year (although he did make the playoff roster and was improbably called off the bench to take their final at-bat against Matt Strahm). He had an excellent year in Gwinnett, hitting .330/.419/.501 with a 12% walk rate while striking out just 14.1% of the time. The biggest question is where he best fits defensively.
There’s no room for him on the Atlanta infield. The Braves could get Grissom some outfield work as a possible Rosario replacement. If another team feels the 22-year-old (23 in January) projects as a big league ready shortstop or second baseman, he might be more valuable to the Braves as a trade chip. The Mariners (Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Sawyer Gipson-Long) have questions at one or both middle infield spots and could dangle a controllable starter who has shown promise at the major league level. That kind of young player swap is rare but can’t be ruled out, particularly with teams having very little opportunity to add middle infield talent in free agency.
As tends to be the case for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff, there’s the potential for a notable move or two. Yet the broad theme of the winter should again be continuity. Brian Snitker will be back for an eighth full season as manager. The most important players are all under contract, with everyone aside from Fried signed for multiple years. The Braves should be a top five team in 2024. Whether that results in a commensurate playoff run won’t be known until October.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Braves-centric chat on 10-18-23. Click here to view the transcript.
The Braves’ recent playoff exit following an exceptional regular season has prompted questions about their ability to excel in high-pressure situations. Their relative lack of impending marquee free agents might lead to complacency, and their pitching rotation faces uncertainties. Additionally, a shift from over-reliance on home runs to a more balanced offensive approach, focusing on putting the ball in play, is essential. They heavily depended on home runs for 53% of their runs, a strategy that may falter against tougher playoff pitching. In 2022, this number was still quite high at 49%. To avoid repeating the mistakes of the past two seasons, the Braves should contemplate bold moves to fortify their roster, particularly in the rotation, in pursuit of an improved postseason performance in 2024.
How do pitching upgrades overcome the lineup’s reliance on HRs as its main offensive weapon? If you cannot score runs, or manufacture them, it doesn’t matter how close you keep the game. This team’s offense has demonstrated that it can be quieted and that weakness may not be used by other teams until it matters the most.
@Hemlock
I completely agree with your concern about the offense. Upgrading pitching alone won’t solve everything. We need a more versatile approach at the plate to ensure we can score runs in various situations, not just relying on home runs. A well-rounded team with strong pitching and the ability to manufacture runs will be better equipped for the postseason. It’s about finding that balance to create a more complete and competitive team.
They had the 5th lowest K% and led MLB in both AVG and OBP. How is that not a “balanced offensive approach”? Yeah, they scored a large percentage of their runs on homers, but that’s a product of how many homers they hit.
@rc1013
You make a valid point regarding the team’s low strikeout rate and strong averages in both batting and on-base percentage. It does show discipline and ability to put the ball in play. My concern lies more in the reliance on home runs for such a significant portion of their runs. While homers are a great asset, having the capability to score runs in various ways, especially in the postseason, is crucial. It’s about finding that balance between power and versatility to be even more competitive when it matters most. The AVG & OBP of the season didn’t help much for their playoffs.
It’s not a “reliance” on homers, they just hit a lot of them and that’s how the math will work out. Say in one inning they string a few singles together without a homer. That probably results in one run. Then say in the next inning they hit two singles, but then follow it with a homer. Suddenly, 75% of the runs scored have been on homers.
If you want to see their percentage of runs scored on homers go down, it’s going to mean they will be scoring less overall.
@rc1013
Great point, and you’re absolutely correct about how the math works out. The Braves’ ability to hit homers is undoubtedly a significant part of their offensive success. My intention wasn’t to suggest that they should score fewer runs but rather to emphasize the value of having a well-rounded offense. By incorporating different ways to score, such as manufacturing runs through singles and doubles, they can maintain a high level of overall scoring while potentially becoming even more versatile and resilient, especially in those tight postseason matchups.
Also, the Phillies out homered them like 12-3 or something like that. In the postseason, the team that outhomers the other wins the vast majority of the time.
You say the “AVG and OBP didn’t help much”. Well yeah, because they didn’t hit for average or get on base in the postseason. How do you suggest they score without baserunners?
@rc1013
I’m not suggesting the Braves should abandon their power-hitting approach entirely. Rather, I think they should aim to strike a balance. The ability to hit for average and get on base, especially in clutch situations, can complement their home run prowess. This approach provides more ways to score runs, ensuring they remain competitive, even in games where homers may not come as easily. A mix of power and versatility could give them an edge in high-pressure playoff scenarios.
I understand what you’re saying, but my point is their approach was already balanced. That’s what made them the historic offensive team they were.
And there are a lot of misconceptions about what works in the playoffs. How did the Phillies win game 4 against a premier power pitcher? They hit three solo homers.
@rc1013
Sure, but the HR didn’t help the Phillies win game 2 because… they lost. The mega swing sent the ball flying but was caught and then poor baserunning ended the game.
And how did the Braves win game 2?
@rc1013
HRd’Arnaud (1, 7th inning off Wheeler 1 on, 1 Out);
Riley (1, 8th inning off Hoffman 1 on, 2 Out)
In the series, they scores 7 runs in total, 5 of which came from HRs.
RISP
Phillies: 2-8, 2-8, 3-10, 0-5: 7-31 0.226
Braves: 0-5, 1-1, 2-7, 0-6 – 3-19 0.157
Braves just couldn’t bring guys around to score, even with 5 HRs. I will concede that the Phillies hit 10 HRs in this series but they
As of today, teams to out homer opponents in the postseason are 16-2, and over 53% of runs have been scored via homer.
@rc1013
Yes, in short series, anything can happen. Have you watched any games during the season? Marlins swept the Braves near the end with lots of HRs. Oh, I guess the Marlins must be WS champions…
Maybe the approach change you are looking for is—‘don’t try and hit the ball so hard.’ The Braves look to make contact and when they make contact to hit the ball as hard as possible. Period. Yes leading the league in avg and slug and be in the top 5 as the hardest to strike out matters little in a 4 game sample. If the Braves swing less hard and made more medium contact maybe that would have helped Acuna when he drove the ball close to the wall and would have been out of 14 out of 30 parks. I guess. The last two post seasons are a total of 8 games. In 22 the Braves K’ed too much—they made a huge adjustment. Huge. Radical. Impressive. Really well done. They will make other changes as well. Sure. I don’t believe they will swing less hard. I think they want the hard hit rate and will alter other things—like the article said, ‘we will know in October of 24 if the changes effect a random tournament skewed to give a disadvantage to the top winning teams. We will see.
They are not Relying on Home Runs
They are hitting Home Runs
Everybody in the line up can hit for power. They can also get on base. What are they supposed to do not drive the ball when afforded the opportunity ?
The whole idea of the Braves being too home run reliant is just derived due to the fact they hit a ton of homers. There are no facts behind it. At least Jeff Passan called that out, but most media folks don’t dig into the numbers.
1st in all MLB in –
Hits – 73 more than next closest team
BA – ,013 better than next closest team
OBP – .004 better than next closest team
SLG – .046 better than the next closest team
OPS – .050 better than next closest team
With the exception of OBP, those are HUGE gaps and obviously are not all HR generated.
SB – Tenth in majors, though it was heavily weighted by Acuna, but then again most teams have one big SB guy with a cluster of others.
K’s – Sixth least in all baseball, which is phenomenal for a team with such high batting and slugging percentages.
Per Fangraphs – 1st in soft speed % (lowest), 1st in medium speed % (lowest), 1st in hard speed hit (highest) … they just laced the ball everywhere, and not just on homers.
Per Fangraphs – They were also first in barrel rate and led all of baseball in hard hit balls by a whopping 239 hits, which was the same gap as from the #2 team to the number 25 team (208 hits difference). THAT IS INSANE and it’s obviously not just home runs.
Per Fangraphs – they were 5th in baserunning value (which is commonly known as base running above average)
The Braves scored plenty of runs without homers, and plenty where a home run cleared the bases but why should that count against them? I know you are going to come back with ‘they didn’t bunt guys over or move them over, etc, etc.’ but they really were moving them over, just with far more positive outcomes than a weak ground ball to right side to move a runner on second over to third. For the Braves it was ‘hit a double and move him across the plate’.
The sad reality about the Braves offense was that they simply could not get the leadoff hitter on in the playoffs in almost every inning. Add to that the fact Acuna slumped majorly and their offense scuffled. It happens to other very good offenses. The Dodgers were second in a bunch of the categories I mentioned above and almost always in the top 5 if not 2nd, yet they scored the same runs per game as the Braves in the playoffs and had lower BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS … yet I don’t see anyone stating the Dodgers offense was too reliant on homers.
I love your posts but I think this one is off base.
I give a lot of credit to the Phillies’ scouts. They found something last year and again this year. The players still have to execute and such, but two years in a row isn’t a fluke.
Nobody looks at how much of a home field advantage Citizens Bank Park really is.
Guys get in that band box and press thinking all they gotta do is get the ball in the air & it’s a HR. Makes visiting players get up swinging for the fences every AB.
Leave the offense alone. Get a LF off the trash heap bottom of the barrel FA list
Sign Sonny Gray
Trade Vaughn Grissom for a young controllable SP
Sign a bullpen guy or 2
2023 regular season—
Braves 52-29 home, 52-29 road
Phillies 49-32 home, 41-40 road
The others if interested:
Dbacks 43-38 home, 41-40 road
Astros 39-42 home, 51-30 road
Rangers 50-31 home, 40-41 road
Among ballparks that have hosted 20+ postseason games, Citizens Bank Park has the highest home winning percentage in MLB history at .718 (28-11).
Shea is second – .667 from a 26-13 Mets record … 1969 and 1986 certainly helped.
Third was Busch II (.660, 35-18).
Fourth is actually Chase Field – .636, 14-8.
mlb.com/news/best-home-field-advantage-in-mlb-play…
The Braves struck out the 5th least in the sport. Saying they need to put the ball in play more simply because they hit a lot of homers is dishonest at best. They hit a crap ton of homeruns, considerably more than everyone else, so of course they have a disproportional amount of runs from homeruns.
@Mike Query
I appreciate your perspective, and you’re absolutely right about the Braves’ low strikeout rate, which is indeed a testament to their disciplined hitting approach. My intention wasn’t to diminish their home run prowess, but rather to highlight the importance of having a well-rounded offense. Postseason matchups often involve facing elite pitching, where relying solely on homers can be challenging. By diversifying their offensive strategies, the Braves can be even more formidable in high-pressure situations and better equipped to handle various pitching styles.
The Braves had the highest BA, the fourth fewest K’s, and the third most non-HR hits in the National League. Their only “deficiency” was their lack of walks, fifth fewest in the NL. They were pretty well-rounded. They failed in the post-season because their pitching faltered and the Phillies didn’t.
@bhambrave
You could say that for one season and playoffs but they’ve faltered against the Phillies twice in two seasons. They seem to be getting into the playoffs and not able to do the things they could do in the regular season. That’s they’re problem not the Phillies.
Last year Fried had a virus and lost fifteen pounds before his playoff start. Strider was coming off a strained oblique. Morton got hit on his pitching elbow by a comebacker, gave up a three-run homer, and was pulled after two innings.
Injuries and illnesses happen. To say the Braves rotation was at full strength in 2022 would be incorrect.
@bhambrave
Excuses… LOL!
You implied it was a trend and the Braves philosophy is flawed. I showed how you are wrong. I’m not making excuses for the Braves losing. Injuries are part of the game. I’m debating your point, which is flawed.
8 games. And if the Phillies don’t win the ws—did they falter 2 years in a row? Yes. They should change a lot because two years in a row they have failed.
@OldYork they’re not excuses when they’re facts. Last year we had no starting pitching in the play offs. This year we lost Morton, Wright, Fried was hurt, leaving Strider as our only healthy SP. Add to the fact that the Braves ended the season in a collective offensive slump which the 5 days off didn’t really help and you have another Braves early exit. These are not excuses, it’s just what happened.
Last year the Met pennant run I think drained them.
This year I believe the lack of meaningful games late in the season had them going through the motions for a little to long and they weren’t able to turn it back on
Phillies had been playin Playoff baseball for over a month by the time the post season started.
Fried & Morton’s injuries hurt bad.
Sorry Strider is not an ACE yet. He throws to many pitches gives up to many HRs & doesn’t go deep enough into games.
He is on his way though.
Why are they not legitimate reasons ????
I hate that narrative that if you come with a reason why guys lose that it’s an excuse.
I think what Old York is saying is that maybe Atlanta needs a lead off hitter that can swipe some bases, and score on some singles than waiting to score on HRs
You mean like someone who could steal 73 bases and score 149 runs?
The worst thing the Braves can do is have a knee jerk reaction to losing in the playoffs.
You complained about the Braves being over reliant on home runs but are completely ignoring the fact they lost to a team who is overly reliant on home runs!
Every fan thinks they know the “blue print” on winning in the post but there isn’t one. The Phillies made it the World Series last year despite not being the best pitching team and have a horrific defense. They just happened to get “hot” at the right time and there is no blue print for getting hot.
Braves just need to keep doing what they have been doing, be one of the best teams in baseball. They weren’t when they won a World Series but have been lately and lose but that doesn’t mean you stop being the best.
Drasco u are correct sir. The better team lost, it happens all the time in a Super Short best of 5 series. $h!t happens! No excuses, just play better. This is baseball, the lesser teams out plays the better teams all the time. That’s why the play the games right.
Teams aren’t going intentionally change their approach from the regular season when they get to the playoffs. The Braves scored a ton of runs off of homeruns and I would argue that this is the best approach in the playoffs. Teams face better pitching in the playoffs and aren’t generally going to string together enough hits to matter. Homeruns are needed. I believe the Braves’ offensive failure in the playoffs was due to their lack of plate discipline…swinging at pitches that they didn’t swing at in the regular season. The Braves’ OBP and strikeout rate were excellent in the regular season for the reason I stated and weren’t so great against the Phillies. The Braves don’t need to worry about the offense this off season unless they have more money than expected and want to upgrade left field. The Braves just need to focus on adding a couple of quality starting pitchers and hopefully a couple of flame throwers in the pen.
Braves are best in majors at getting quality players to sign crappy deals. And that’s why I hate the Braves lol
@Big whiffa
It’s true that the Braves have a knack for getting quality players to sign team-friendly contracts. While this may frustrate some fans of other teams, it’s a testament to the Braves’ ability to attract talent and create a competitive environment. It’s all part of the game, and every team strives to build a winning roster while managing their budgets. In the end, it’s a strategy that’s worked well for the Braves in many instances, and it’s a testament to their appeal as a team.
Which player signed a “crappy deal”??? The early extensions typically get a team 2 or 3 free agent years cheaper, if player is still performing years down the road. The players are gaining financial security and if invest increased $ they receive earlier can end up ahead or at least even. To say the deals are crappy is simply false.
You realize though with the Braves they have a tendency to recently sign local people. Harris; Olson and Riley to name a few are either Atlanta residents or close states like Mississippi in Riley’s case. Imagine being able to play both baseball and being home more make perfect sense. The Braves knew someone like Olson wanted to be a Braves and would take home town long term contract over a massive contract some where else. Just good front office moves
I still see complaints about Arcia with how he finished (not how he started), but he got paid 16% of what his predecessor (Swanson) did in 2023 and contributed 46% of Swanson’s productions (via fWAR). He was paid $2.3M and got 2.3 fWAR. Based on his extension, AA wasn’t looking at Arcia to be bring back 100% of Swanson’s production, but find value at the SS position and make up for it elsewhere, which he did.
The Phillies really did play better in every aspect. The Chop was even better in Philadelphia.
Baseball playoffs as a whole have changed so much that it is not about the best teams anymore. Both the dodgers and Braves have had early exits in last 2 seasons. This year very likely the World Series is wild card vs wild card. Major League Baseball never intended that.
As far the Phillies being better they finished a dozen games behind the Braves. MLB going have to change the playoffs are risk fans not caring about the regular season
@Benjamin101677
An argument could be made whether they were the best or not. Just because your team wins 100+ doesn’t mean they’re the best overall team and it’s clear that they might be built to win over a long season but not when it comes to winning short series.
162 games season > 4 games
PS is a crapshoot. Every team there is a winning team. All it takes is to get hot at the right time and any team can win.
Just because a team get hot at the right time doesn’t mean they are the best team either.
@OldYork you sound like someone who didn’t watch any of the Braves games during the regular season.
At one point the Braves won 11 series in a row and overall had a record of 36 series won, 3 ties and 13 loses.
They are built with a balanced offense and also to win short series. It’s just that their pitching was thin at the SP and their hitters were cold, while the Phillies were not.
@Slow day at work
That winning streak was a testament to their potential. However, the harsh reality is that baseball can be brutally unforgiving in the postseason. The thin starting pitching and cold bats were undeniable issues when it mattered the most.
We can’t just rely on regular-season success to predict postseason performance. It’s essential to face these problems head-on, make the necessary adjustments, and strengthen the team’s weaknesses to ensure a more robust and reliable showing in the playoffs. If the Braves want to solidify themselves as a postseason force, addressing these concerns isn’t a choice; it’s a requirement.
Just enjoy that Division Champions shirt and move on
I can’t help but to envision a trade between ATL and CWS that would include Grissom and Dylan Cease. There would have to be other near ready prospects heading to Chicago, but landing Grissom makes the decision to pass on Anderson’s option much easier for Getz.
That wouldn’t be a bad move. Grissom is younger, and his offensive stats were good, slugging was low but Sox park is very hitter friendly so that’s not an issue. But that a good start, I agree.
@solaris602 Grissom wouldn’t interest the White Sox as a SS replacement for Anderson, he doesn’t profile there as a good defender. He’s more of a 2b or outfielder
Because Anderson is a gold glover.
the only reason I don’t see that happening is Cease is a Boras client and he always gets his players to free agency. Braves likely won’t make a trade like that if they are unlikely to get the player to sign an early extension. Not impossible, but doesn’t fit their trade and extend model.
The Braves exit just shows that the very best team in Baseball does not win every series throughout the regular season and does not win every post season series.
In a short series, bats can go south, arms come up short, it happens.
Even if the Braves had played as well as they are capable of, it’s much more difficult for any team to win a WS with todays format.
Having to win 3 or 4 post season series to win the WS improves the chances that the best team won’t win the WS.
How many of those 27 WS championships would the Yankees have if those Ruth era, DiMaggio era or Mantle era teams didn’t go straight to the WS? half? One third? Maybe less with 3-4 rounds of playoffs.
The game has changed. Teams just need to get to the dance, win 85 games, and then be hot. The Braves won 88 their WS title year, they got to the dance and Eddie, Adam, Joc etc got hot at the right time.
Pretty much agree with this. Although getting another starter doesn’t hurt. They have a few guys that aren’t very reliable, so maybe a free agent signing wouldn’t hurt to have a stable rotation.
Boston isn’t trading Pivetta. Why would you even think that, let alone write it?
It might depend on whether the RS continue to treat Pivetta as a #6 or #5, As we’ve seen time and time again, for 6 seasons, Pivetta is awesome when he is on, but can easily go off the rails.
As a RS who wants us to sign pitching, I would still definitely listen on Pivetta.
Isn’t Pierce Johnson arb eligible this off-season?
@rafabustamante
Yes, you are correct. Pierce Johnson is indeed eligible for arbitration this off-season. It will be interesting to see how the Braves handle his arbitration situation and whether they decide to offer him a contract or explore other options in their bullpen.
Yeah, I saw somewhere else that he was a free agent, but BR states he’s arb eligible.
3 years arb control left for Johnson,Pierce
2026 free agent
Wrong. He played in Asia. In his new contract he is a free agent. He is a free agent 5 days after the end of the WS.
Apparently there was a provision in his contract with the Rockies that he would become a free agent.
Interesting. How is he allowed to have that in his contract?
He was signed by Colorado as a free agent. He was non-tendered by the Padres after 2022.
Trade Harris II, Elder, more for Trout to play LF.
Sign Bellinger to play CF.
Trade Grissom, Dodd, Shuster, more for Cease.
Sign Sonny Gray.
Decline Morton option.
Resign Chavez and Anderson.
Sign a couple of late inning RP.
Schedule the parade.
Scrooge, I didn’t think you liked to spend money. But I see you don’t have a problem spending someone else’s money—those changes add around $100MM to the 2024 payroll.
I’m all for other people spending their money.
Michael Harris is a better player than Mike Trout is right now and he’s a lot healthier and 10 years younger and has a hell of a better contract
Considering their age, health issues, and contracts, I wouldn’t trade Harris straight up for Trout. If the Angels called AA and suggested it, I think AA would immediately decline, too.
@Saint Nick: Why would the Braves deal 7 cheap years of 22 year old Harris II for Trout? Ridiculous salary for a guy who can’t stay on the field. Just getting worse as he ages. They’d be playing a dirge at parades for years if they made that cringeworthy deal.
+$100MM to the payroll would put them at around a $290MM to $300MM CBT figure. Assuming LAA doesn’t pay Trout’s entire salary or something silly.
This rotation will not get it done, either—
Strider
Gray
Fried
Cease
???
I would like to see this—
Fried
Strider
Yamamoto (not goimg to happen)
Morton
Elder
@Hemlock: Yeah, AA’s not going to cripple the payroll w/a Trout level salary. I didn’t comment on St. Nick’s trade proposal for Cease, but imo there’s no way Grissom, Dodd, and Shuster bring back a pitcher of that quality. The “more” he referenced in that proposal would have to include adding 2 or more of AJSS/Waldrep/Schwellenbach etc. for the Sox to deal Cease. Seriously doubt Grissom, Dodd, and Shuster bring back anything of value. “Our junk for your awesome stuff” deals rarely do.
Dodd & Shuster don’t even get the Seattle bus driver a muzzle for Arcia who’s tied up in a duffle bag in the trunk that’s headed to Seattle. And you know how much the bus driver is going to want a muzzle.
Dodd & Shuster sounds like a law firm by the way.
Lol, a couple of ambulance chasers……….
It didn’t come into play this offseason because of the early exit, but a boost at the backend of the rotation could help. In the best of 7 series, a quality 3-4 is needed. Other than that, the Braves are still the best team in baseball. Just run it back and hope for different results in the postseason.
It did b/c they had to go with Elder, who shouldn’t have been started in a 5-game series. He’s been hittable since the AS Break and running on fumes. Hope for different results? Can’t continue relying on a 40 y/o (Morton) that seems to be unavailable or early exit (injury) last few postseasons – or rookie SPs (Elder).
I’d love to see Morton bow out and Sonny Gray enter, pushing Elder to a 4-spot and have AJSS or Waldrep vy for SP5. The loser of that spot could enter in ’25 when Fried leaves.
You mean when Charlie Morton had to leave a game early…after breaking his leg? But still pitched the rest of the inning on said broken leg? Yeah, what a weakling. Morton had a solid year and has demonstrated his ability to pitch in the clutch (before the outrage ensues on here, yes I realize past performance does not equal future performance). Maybe he should have started a game?
Who called or implied he was a “weakling”? Did he not exit early? I’m stating facts, you’re bringing in emotion. Yes, let’s continue to put postseason aspirations on rookies and 40-year old arms. He had a career-high in BB/9 (full season), but sure, better with age.
Agree with you Run. It was rough this season with 3 SP and a revolving door of guys that just weren’t ready. I don’t even know if Elder gets a guaranteed spot next season. He was just not good the 2nd half and the postseason start. Maybe he competes for that 5th spot but I would not rely on him. Even if they have to sign 2 SP they could always go with a 6 man if everything turns out perfectly but as they proved this year you can never have enough pitching.
Acuna’s contract is so bad that it could affect his motivation. The team will have to think about this seriously.
Hard to say a guy gambled, got 100 million and lost, but he sure took the 100 over the 3-4 that would be there for him now. I see what you’re saying, but I know what I’m saying if I’m the Braves. If he had turned into a complete bust, they would still owe him the hundo. Goes both ways.
Dude was playing on a dirt field in Venezuela last off season. I think he just loves playing baseball.
> Acuna’s contract
To Ronald—
Financial security > Maximizing income
He’s happy, just got married, and he probably had the best hitting year of his career. If his finances were bothering him, it would show.
ArianaGrandSlam
Acuna’s contract is so bad that it could affect his motivation.
=======================
I trust you are being facetious, or else you must have missed the entire 2023 season.
It sure hasn’t affected his motivation to steal bases almost every time he gets on. A guy running that much must really lack motivation.
To his point – it is the worst contract in baseball. I like acuna better than tatis at the point each signed and tatis got some 230 additional million.
Albies’ is the team-friendliest contract in baseball.
Calling it now. Finishing last in the NLE next year and will be selling off at the deadline
Nah, the Phillies are better than you think.
What they should do is make it a 7 game series; make it where division rivalries don’t face each other if possible.
Than to handicap the wild card teams the division winning team should get a free game. So the Braves would only have had to win 3 games and the Phillies 4. That would put huge on the teams spending to win the division.
Than any team winning 100 games or more should get some kind of reward like a lottery round of additional draft pick. This would really encourage teams to play hard.
We’re in a position where 2 things could happen in the future without changes; no teams fans really get into the regular season as if you’re the top team and it resets in post season no reason to watch early season games. With the 3 wild cards per league it is possible that an under .500 teams or right at .500 teams gets into the post season.
As it sits right now I am assuming the tv ratings for the Astros and rangers aren’t that high. Like wise the Phillies and diamondbacks series has more fans but probably not a lot. I don’t think anyone would be too excited and be must watch tv if the ranger and Diamondback played the World Series. So the revenue is going be way down
Folks the Phillies Again,are hitting on all cylinders at the right time. If the Braves would have been say May/June production we wouldn’t even be dissecting and nitpicking all these advanced stats. Core group of positional players are locked up and they will be Again one of the best teams in the NL in 24. My hope is securing a proven MLB starter and bringing along the younger Starters with minor league options at a slower pace. Power Arms for the bullpen as well with wipe out stuff. Let’s hope Matzek can also return to form. I’m a Braves Fan and trust in AA and our current roster to believe they will improve where needed. Locking up Max Fried would be a big start!
June was three months ago and May was four.
As impressive as their bats are — their real strength is the pitching. SP in particular has been spectacular. You don’t see a lot of 100M deals these days proving to be a steal, but Wheeler’s def is. Nola is being pushed to right a bad contract season. Suarez wants more attention.
Fried is as good as gone. He’s going into his contract year and I don’t think you’ll see him do anything less than Rodon’s deal, but he could be pulling a Nola and asking for 200M, which would make AA trade for Dylan Cease the minute his agent asked for that, then not return his calls.
I have been saying it may be time to trade Fried and get a couple prospects in return. Maybe a young OF with strong prospect stock & a low level top pitching prospect with a Relief arm thrown in too.
Then sign Sonny Gray & trade for Cease.
AA finally call up his former boss at LAD to pick some pieces from their always-robust farm? LAD have the funds and need to get a potent arm, especially if the high AAV of Kershaw is no longer there, and the need is. They have several key rookie arms that could be plugged in, but without Kershaw, Urias, they’ll need some to step up, even if Buehler finds his rhythm late in the season from TJ return. That’s an expensive team to be guided by young/inexpensive arms, so you know they’ll try and solidify that rotation one way or another. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go after Jordan Montgomery to replace Kershaw.
Rich team problems here. I mean rich in talent
The outlook forgot Dylan Lee, who’s supposed to be back as early as spring training. Another quality lefty in the pen.
I hope Rosario is let go. He’s too streaky and a mediocre OF at best. It may be a goofy idea, but if Grissom is indeed able to play SS everyday, why not package a trade around Arcia, who’s locked up for what’s now below-market money? Grissom’s high-contact skills would improve a great offense.
Arcia doesn’t have much trade value compared to Grissom. He’s useful, but teams want upside. Grissom also has options left. I’d rather trade Grissom.
It’s the “Bobby Cox mentality” it has crept into this team where the best team in baseball has no urgency in the playoffs and treats an elimination game like a game in the middle of May. Listen to the post game news conferences or interviews they just talk with no emotion and give the same ho-hum generic answers about how it’s one game at a time and he have to just be consistent. And nobody got pissed like when the Phillies did when Arcia ran his mouth. That’s the difference is the Phillies know it’s the postseason and got mad and went out there and took those games instead of expecting it to be handed to them like the Braves did. It’s the classic fable the Tortoise and the Haire but in a baseball diamond where the better team lost because they coasted at the end and allowed the Phillies to pass them. And that is from coaching and Snit taking the foot off the gas after clinching the division up in Philly they started taking players out and starting scrubs with like 2 weeks left to go then you get to add about another week off with the wildcard series playing and then you have to try to start actually playing hard with 3 weeks off. And the problem with Bobby Cox was he would do the same thing and treat the playoffs like they were the regular season.
Not sure about the players but it is definitely true with the coaches. Snitker needs to go but he won’t be shown the door because of ’21. Just like Cox was around way too long because of ’95.
Would love to see what the Angels would want for Addel. He was a top prospect and could possibly need a change of scenery. With this line up he could get a chance to work some things out.
Wonder if a Shuster could get it done.
I’m very curious to see if Grissom gets playing time in LF this winter/spring or if he’s inevitably traded for whomever ends up playing LF the next few years. Other than Belli, the free agent LF options aren’t much better than what they’ve gotten out of Rosario.
Free agent pitching market is decent this year so I could see them going after someone like Gray. Either way they need to add a starter (2 if Morton’s option isn’t exercised or retires) and prepare for Fried’s departure in 2025..
They also need to add velocity to their bullpen (Reynaldo Lopez would be my pick) and re-signing Pierce Johnson should be a priority.
I see no need to upgrade the offense other than a LFer. They need to add a SP either by trade or FA.
Bringing Morton back is ok if it’s not at 20k.
I wouldn’t bother extending Fried after ’24. He’s good when he DOES pitch, but he’s going to want too much money for what he’ll send up providing.
If you can extend Fried for something like 8/$200M, you should do it. If not, then trade him or let him walk.
He’s the Braves’ union rep. I think he’s gonna push for as much money as possible.
Trade Albies, Fried, Ozuna, Rosario
Get rid of Hand.
Not going to comment on how bad your “trade Albies” thoughts are, but they don’t have to trade Rosario. All they have to do to be rid of him is to decline his $9 mill team option. Same w/Hand—-he has a $7 mill team option. Please don’t make your comment any worse by suggesting that Grissom could replace Albies. Just what do you think the Braves could get for 1 year of the $19 mill they owe Ozuna? What team is going to give up anything of value for a DH (w/his checkered past)? Fried has trade value, but trading away one of your top 2 starters from a team that will compete for the WS again next season? Really? Are you advocating a rebuild, lol?
They are not winning anything with the current core. It is time to get that straight. They lost the heart of the team (Swanson/Freeman) and lost three of the biggest contributors to their 2021 run (Pederson, Soler, Rosario). Fried needs to go if they don’t plan to extend him. Strider is not a ace. Morton is not reliable to stay healthy. Rotation needs an overhaul.
Trading Albies is indeed controversial, but his contract makes his value even grander. The team needs to retool, including the farm system. Fried, Albies are two guys that can do that.
The only thing you got “straight” is making your opinion known. It’s about as valid now as it was during the WS year of 2021 when you ranted every day that the Braves couldn’t win unless they traded for MadBum. Your claim that a tiny 4 game sample matters more than 104 wins over 162 games doesn’t hold water. They need tweaks to the starting staff, pen, and left field. Calling for a rebuild is just as ludicrous as those MadBum rants. Can’t get any better at 3 of 4 infield spots and 2 of 3 outfield spots. Arcia is serviceable, and Lopez provides excellent defensive cover. They’ve got a ton of young pitching in the minors that’s going to be ready soon. AJSS, Waldrep, Schwellenbach might be the starters at the back of the rotation as soon as next season. Plenty of other depth at their disposal. Granted that they’re weak on position players in the upper minors, but w/good health on the ML roster, that’s not going to be an issue for several years—–5 or more. Exception’s at SS, but that can be addressed via trade if a draftee/ifa isn’t ready in 3-4 years. Plenty of time to improve the farm through the draft. Finally able to spend on ifa’s too. Why trade Fried now? Coming off a down year w/only 1 more year of team control. The time to deal him was a year ago. Keep him now and hope he’s healthy next season. If he won’t take a reasonable deal to re-sign, take the draft pick when he turns down the QO. Btw, what’s w/the boo hoo garbage about losing Rosario? You just advocated trading him a couple of minutes ago, lol.
Actually, if anything 162 game season is useless and the 4 games the Braves choked 2 years in a row in is more representative of the team they are (just like history shows). There are multiple reasons why trading Fried makes sense now. He is not coming back, extra year of control means more quality back in a trade, the Braves still won all these games without him on the mound for most of the season thanks to the offense.
Fried doesn’t have “an extra year of control” left. He’s a FA after 2024. Less quality coming back because of his health issues. It’s just as easy to cherry pick 4 games from any of the many winning streaks the Braves had over the last 2 seasons and say that those 4 game small sample sizes “are more representative of the team they are.” You’re entitled to your opinion, but that opinion is only that—-your opinion. A measly 8 playoff games aren’t as “representative” as 324 regular season games over the last 2 years. See how opinions work? Btw—-you’re all over the place w/your thoughts. Why are you using “all those games” they won to make your “point” if regular season games don’t matter? Why don’t you use Fried’s poor/lackluster playoff performance in both of the last 2 playoff series to evaluate his trade value if the playoffs mean so much more than 2 full seasons worth of data? I’d defend Fried by saying he was sick in 2022 and came off an 18 day layoff to defend his lack of playoff success in 2023.
The goal is to win in the playoffs, like the Braves did in 2021. When they won 80+ games in 2021, you didn’t care about the regular season results because the postseason play mattered more. The fact that the Braves lost to the Phillies in two consecutive seasons and both in 4 games says a lot. I’m not going to argue the Phils are better than the Braves on paper…they are absolutely not. But I will argue the Phillies are a better playoff team and play better when it matters most. The last two seasons is a good enough sample size to validate the point.
Regarding Fried, what I meant was the team that trades for him has him with the current contract + x amount of years if they choose resign him. Poor choices of phrasing on my part. Regardless, Fried needs to go. The farm system needs a reboot because the current core is not good enough to win in the postseason. They will never get another “SuperRosario:” moment from him or another player from the current core. Riley and TA are the only guys year in who steps up in the postseason.
The Braves will never get another “SuperRosario” performance from him nor anybody to carry them in the CS. Only Riley and TA step up in the postseason.
8 games at the end of 162 didn’t go the way he wanted so throw out two seasons of 205 wins cause cause. Simply nuts. Ozuna could be traded. He could. I don’t see that. The Braves would not be getting much if anything in return so why? Payroll allows for Ozuna next year (and the next probably). Rosario and Hand are probaly gone. Trading Albies or Fried? If the Braves had two ‘Strider’ types ready to go and would be 100percent effective and have the impact a strider would—I still think they hold onto Fried. They don’t have two guaranteed Striders coming up. So no I don’t believe they will trade Fried. Trading Albies the heart of the team? Only possible reason would be they believe his defense will not rebound and only get worse with the elbow. That could be the case with his elbow. I don’t see that but maybe you could squint your eyes and look at the sun long enough to somehow justify trading Albies. Okay. Last year we traded Contreas because of defense. Contreas is a great great player who will do well for a long time. I do see them giving Lopez a long look in the spring. They need Lopez to hit 250 with a 370 on base….he would be a big improvement on defense. Every year it seems like the Braves have one obvious move, like left field this year. Yet the Braves rarely make the simple choice. This year they will. They will get a dam fine left fielder for a one year or two year deal. Sign Morton to something. Sign 2/3 relievers. Big relievers. These are obvious moves. Maybe another starter? They had 16 starters last year—everything says sign another starter besides Morton—maybe they will. I believe they will start the year with the Winans, Shuster, Dodd (who is getting better) and then by the middle of the year AJSS, Waldrep, and maybe another breakout type player will rise to push out the 4th and 5th starters. It will be interesting as always.
Harper sucks!
I’d like to see Grissom given SS and Arcia to the bench. Tender Allard/ Soroka with the hope they have something to contribute. Start shawver in the rotation and give Dodd/Shuster a chance for it in spring training. Yonny was terrible and needs to be non tendered. Might be time to let Morton walk as much as I like him. It seems comes the end of the season he is out of juice or hurt 20 million might be spent better elsewhere.
Just reading this thread it makes me feel like nobody watched this season. The Braves offense didnt need to change anything and just plain went cold in the NLDS. Was it the layoff, was it the lax cruise control they went into the last 2 weeks of the season? Maybe but sometimes the ball doesnt bounce your way. The Braves beat the Phillies 8 out 13 times during the season and was 5-1 at CBP. The Phillies didnt figure anything out, they were just playing better at the end of the season and were hot in the playoffs. The Braves top to bottom have the best lineup in the NL. Better than Philly and LA. I say add a new bat to LF, add two starters through FA or trade and roll with one of the 2 young gun pitchers. I would also like to see a hammer for the end of games and put our closer to the 8th. Braves will be fine.