In conjunction with the Padres’ offseason outlook, Anthony Franco held a Padres-centric chat. Click here to view the transcript.
By Anthony Franco | at
In conjunction with the Padres’ offseason outlook, Anthony Franco held a Padres-centric chat. Click here to view the transcript.
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haha my first time having my question as question #1 in a chat. Time to celebrate!
Congratulations.
#1 in chat AND #1 in the comments of the chat comment section for the same chat.
I’d take my keyboard and go home to retire if I were you because it’s all downhill from there.
What happened to RIP & WOW? let’s hope the site has grown up.
haha yeah it’s been downhill for awhile, but gotta celebrate this W. 🙂
Parade is in National City, just watch out for the prostitutes
Hahaha…
Once I was stopping at Frank Subaru on the Mile of Cars… Nearing the driveway, I thought I saw a street walker. Dressed ready to work, everything popping out of the tight dress…
She approached me as I got out of my car. She was a salesgirl. Doh! Hahaha!!!
haha can be tough to tell nowadays
Non-freaking out Chris NAILED it! Solid take, and one I strongly mirror. Need arms, line-up is essentially ready to run it back, bullpen should be solid sans Hader.
Chris
5:16 Non-freak out view from a lifelong Pad fan: Position starting core is intact (and regression to the mean would imply all but 1-2 will have better years in 2024): 1B- Crone, 2B- X, 3B- Manny, SS- Kim, C- Campy, RF- Tatis, CF- Grish, RF- Soto. Need to fill in a couple DH/corner IF/OF types and a backup C: hope you catch a break here, but can’t do much worse than Carp/Nelly/Nola group from 2023… Merrill up as a 2nd half call-up. Starting pitching is greatest need: Musgrove/Darvish hopefully bounce back from injuries, pick up Wacha option, decline Martinez and see what he does… leaves 1-2 spots (would be nice to see Morejon healthy over a full season), Snelling/Lesko not ready yet. Offer Lugo a reasonable deal to come back and take a flier on a couple upside/veteran types for depth. Bullpen will be fine, even without Hader, think Suarez steps up with a healthy season. I know it’s tough to roll it back, but run differential and other metrics say stay the course… thoughts???
Anthony Franco
5:17 Mostly agree with the sentiment. I’d emphasize adding a bench bat more than you suggest here but in general, I think there’s still a strong core here even without a huge move to replace Snell or Hader
@Anthony What’s your take on the “Manny Machado wouldn’t have signed if they hadn’t signed Eric Hosmer first” narrative?
Eric Hosmer was clearly the linchpin and heart and soul of the Padres. That’s why it all came tumbling down as soon as he left, right?
Did they not beat the Dodgers in the NLDS after Hosmer left?
I think he was being facetious, maybe not
He was an anchor of sorts. Although, I did wonder aloud to myself if Profar helped the team on a psychological basis.
Profar DID get more money by leaving San Diego. $250k in salary and then a $1m buyout of his player option for 2023. Dumas Padres fans need to stop saying Profar made less money by opting out.
Yes, literally true he made a scratch more. But no, he didn’t get the multi year deal with 8 million a year deal he was seeking.
And he was about 3 million dollars worth of less happy as a Rockie. Not sure if he helped the padres or the padres helped him after he came back, but it was nice.
I’d try to get him back on an incentive heavy 1 year deal, 1 million base guarantee, extra 4 million possible. We can swallow that if it’s a mistake.
Never said he got significantly more or that he got what he and his agent started out the offseason asking for. But it’s literally not true to assert that he “Lost money by opting out.”
And as for “But he had to play for the Rockies.” He’s a Padre now, is he not?
I believe he’s now an unsigned FA
Not until the day after the WS has wrapped up!
Isn’t that inevitable? What is his price tag ya think next year?
League minimum
Dennis line’s article is basically a piggy back of acee’s. Until you hear Seidler or preller talk about cutting back payroll then don’t buy into these reports.
I’d bet anything the padres payroll is closer to 250m than 200m. They would struggle to even put a decent pitching staff together and be at or below 200m. With all the projected arb guys they are at 180m. Even if the trades, Soto, Grisham, released guys like Nola and Tim hill they would still be around 140m. Have no left fielder, no center/rf, missing 3
Starters and at least 1 or two pens arms along with a back up catcher and other bench pieces.
This would be taking a very large step back for the padres. Seidler the owner has given no reason at all to believe this is the direction they will go. Preller was pretty clear his top priority with Soto ww to extend him. If they got that done how on the world would they even put a team together that had halfway decent pitching with 20m budget and 3 starts plus all the rest i mentioned to fill.
All the people buying into these reports will be were g like most have the last several years stating what the padres payroll will be.
I don’t see anyway in hell that the Pads do some sort of retool.. But the idea would be offloading Soto’s $33 million and getting 2 ML ready guys back to fill some of the slots. That would then give them some money to maneuver under $200MM.
But you do any of that and your 2024 padres squad is obviously weaker. Doesn’t make much sense with how they’ve positioned themselves.
“Retooling! I’ll retool you!”
Mr. Shirley on Christmas Vacation.
In the chat I thought Franco doubled down on his support of the Acee paradigms, dissapointing.
He did. He mentioned an article by Dennis Lin from the Athletic. Problem is that Lin NEVER said $200 million and in the very next paragraph he said “These are also the Padres we’re talking about, so nothing is written in stone. Who knows what surprises or splashes this upcoming winter could bring? San Diego, under owner Peter Seidler, has established itself as one of the boldest movers and shakers in the sport.”
ALL he wanted to do was defend his BS in the Offseason Outlook.
With $17 million in benefits, the $$$ owed to Hosmer, estimated arbitration salaries (including $32 million for Soto), Cots has the Padres at $262 million, and that is assuming Martinez and Wacha exercise their player options (team options declined).
I guess the rotation with no additions would be:
Darvish
Musgrove
Wacha
Martinez
Lugo
Not terrible at all, but not sure how they get anywhere close to under $250 million and hope to be competitive.
…
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hUvYNZODpusJEJQm41…
I’d bet on Wacha, Lugo, and/or Martinez opting out. So add another $15M+ to re-sign those guys. it is hard to see them coming in at less than $300M.
Dunno about Martinez. Other 2 will tho.
Love how you leave out THIS from the Dennis Lin article Anthony. Stop trying to defend being wrong. Just man
“These are also the Padres we’re talking about, so nothing is written in stone. Who knows what surprises or splashes this upcoming winter could bring? San Diego, under owner Peter Seidler, has established itself as one of the boldest movers and shakers in the sport.”
Here is the bottom line. Seidler said TWICE during this season that the 2024 payroll would be around the same as 2023. Seidler makes the decision. Not Acee. Not Dennis Lin. Not any of the unnamed sources close to the Padres that they claim to know more than Seidler. SEIDLER makes the decision. He has been consistent in his words and he has done what HE has said he would de regardless of the naysayers in the media.
Every. Single. Time.
BTW Anthony. If you ACTUALLY read the comments section you would know that Soto built a home next to Machado and that the Padres are already in negotiations on an extension as Preller said they would be.
This is an interesting one for me I’m not a Padres fan but like my Cardinals saw them as contenders on paper. A season is too long to just run it back expecting it to turn itself around I think it’ll take some additions or maybe even adjustments is the right word for them at least. Like my Cardinals I think we are fortunate to be headed into a pitching rich bat poor offseason which is rare. The Padres need less than the Cardinals but both could also use either the farm or even the roster to deal to a hitter needy team in a thin market for them. PS sorry to mention the Cardinals I just see them in a somewhat similar position although I see the Padres needing less they are star studded offensively. My prediction is the Padres make the playoffs at least in 2024 their 2023 lineup might be the best I’ve seen not make it especially with playoff expansion. It’s just hard to bash or throw nightly gems to get to the playoffs their has to be somewhat of a balance. Don’t really blame Preller some of the guys I thought would at least be reliable werent but he’s aggressive and clearly this is a win now team he’ll be active enough to fix it guys will just have to live up to expectations
their 2023 lineup might be the best I’ve seen not make it especially with playoff expansion.
===========================
Their runs scored only ranked #15. On the bright side, all they need is a 1B and DH, and those are far easier gets. The bold move would be to trade Cro for a 1B while he still some value.
They will still have to pay down some of his contract, But there will be a GM out there that will convince themselves that Cro will return to being a 4 WAR 2B.
Do the Dodgers off-season outlook next…hahahaha!!!
The medical report for Gonsolin, May, Buehler, and maybe Kershaw, will make for interesting reading. That’s an amazing amount of talent on the IL.
They could’ve used those arms for sure. I wonder if Roberts is around next season as their skipper…
Butterfly effect: just imagine if Padres weren’t so pathetic in 2006 and kept Bochy…I think sandy alderson is the actual Padres curse. Preller is just a recent piece of it.
No. no no no no no.
The Curse is not limited to the Padres, or one or two individuals, it’s called the San Diego Sports Curse, and it’s real. It simply defies all scientific reasoning and rationale. If Bochy coached the Padres this year the same result would have unfolded. If the Padres had Mantle, Bonds, Gehrig, Koufax and Randy Johnson in their prime, they still would have missed the playoffs. You see, it all started when Ray Kroc took to the microphone way back when, and when #1 prospect catcher Mike Ivey admitted he was afraid to fail and couldn’t toss the ball back to the pitcher so he retired, and then, then it grew, did the curse, throughout the years peaking when the Raiders beat the San Diego Chargers on Sept. 10, 1978, at Jack Murphy Stadium on a play San Diego fans called the “Immaculate Deception”, then there was the greatest NFL offense ever assembled only to confront the Freezer Bowl 1981 AFC Championship Game. The damnation of the Clippers, Rockets, Conquistadors and “Chargering” has spread faster than wildfire into the lovely atmosphere of Petco, and as we aspire and hope, we also marvel at it all.
If the Padres traded for Acuna offseason, next year he’d hit .238 with 17 HRs and 21 SBs with 150 Ks and everyone would blame Preller for giving up Merrill and Snelling in the deal
The Mike Ivey reference AND the Kroc PA announcement… True old school!
Brew, You forgot to mention that Holliday STILL hasn’t touched home plate!
From an article in the Atlantic: Between Pomeranz, Hader and Suarez, the Padres paid $34.1 million in 2023 for a total of 84 innings
Sad…
Isn’t that about what the Dodgers paid last year for Price? Not sure I get your point. Guys get injured
Brew, epic waste of money. Don’t care that other franchises also waste tons of money, that doesn’t excuse Preller’s penchant to hand out contracts that fail badly.
on Pomz I agree. Suarez we’ll see. Hader, well, they hoped he’d be a cog in a WS run last year and this and Seidler opened the checkbook.
Will be active in the SP market and a few bench pieces would be nice DFA Carp and Garcia they can play little league somewhere.
Acee’s source was Hosmer so when he left Acee just had to guess about what was happening.
It was weird watching this season and then just K after K with RISP. Not even a sac fly or a groundout to the right side. Plus the extra inning thing just became a running joke. How do you improve “clutch” in the off-season? I don’t know.
Jackson Merrill could make the jump from AA to the Padres like many up and coming young stars do. I could see him @ SS or 2B or LF for ’24 by June ‘
If the Padres decide to move Juan Soto rather than let him walk for a draft pick,
then I could see a deal like this
Soto to the Brewers (who need a clutch bat to get them to the playoffs and beyond)
for starting pitcher Corbin Burns (Bakersfield, CA native) free agent ’25, OF Jackson Chourio. or one of their other young OFs/OF prospects and maybe a few “lottery ticket” players.
Ditto with Rays and Indans.
Rays are increasing payroll and may go for a Soto rental bat if they think Soto can get them back to the WS.
Corbin Burns (or a starter like him) could solidify the Padres rotation for ’24.
Chourio or one of the Brewers other top young OFs (or OF prospects) could fill multiple holes for the Padres.
Merrill should be a starter in INF or OF sometime in ’24.
The Padres would still have money for mid level free agents for depth in bullpen, rotation and OF.
A Soto trade should not just be viewed by the trade return, but also by who the Padres can resign with the freed-up money. Let’s say the Padres trade Soto for a major league-ready outfield bat and two good minor leaguers.
But it also frees up 30M dollars to resign, say, Seth Lugo and Gary Sanchez. Sanchez would solve both the DH and backup catcher needs.
So, would you rather have Juan Soto, or…..Lugo, Sanchez, an outfield bat, and two minor leaguers?
This assumes a payroll limit and an inability to keep all of them.
.
Soto is a great addition to any team.
But, Padres are already “top heavy” with big, long term contracts
Tatis Jr, Xander, Machado etc…
Another huge contract would handcuff the Front Office from
filling out the rest of the roster to compete for the playoffs now.
And, Soto’s agent, Boros, does not do home team discounts.
They are looking for a record breaking deal. (400-600M).
For a team in a large market that is just 1 or 2 players away from the World Series, then it might work.
The Padres want to compete now.
So keeping Soto and taking a draft pick that might or might not pan out in 3-4 years does not make any sense.
Plus there is no way to get more competitive for the playoffs without
making some major changes and filling some of the holes in the team.
A Soto deal for the players and for the contract money saved and spent
on other free agents could make that happen.
And, yes, the Padres will not recover all the talent they gave up for Soto
since Soto is in the last “walk year” of his contract.
Good points!
I would rather fill the multiple holes in the team that a Soto deal would make happen.
Soto can only play one position and only bat once very time through the batting order.
His production can be made up by being spread around to multiple players like you stated: Gary Sanchez as DH and backup catcher and, perhaps a few more bench bats in free agency or trade.
Jackson Merrill is going to be a very good major leaguer and could take one of the spots in INF or OF.
Some of these deals could also free up a few of the present players for
in separate deals for other team needs:
1) young cost controlled starting pitching
2) bench players who can hit and field
3) A new CF unless Tatis moves over to CF.
Does Cronenworth have good trade value?
“… and generally solid about deciding which of their prospects they’d be willing to part with for star talent (aside from the terrible trades with Seattle at the 2020 deadline)”
What about the Kemp trade, the Justin Upton trade, the Myers trade, the Clevinger trade, the (first) Frazier trade and the Brett-Nicholas Emmanuel Clase trade? Those were all worse than the 2020 deadline trades with Seattle. The first Soto trade will be the worst trade of the entire Preller era if they trade him this offseason.