The longest-tenured player on the Phillies, All-Star starting pitcher Aaron Nola, is set to hit free agency following the conclusion of the World Series. Meanwhile, his long-time rotation mate, Zack Wheeler, is entering the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact he signed ahead of the 2020 campaign.
Speaking to members of the media on Thursday (including Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia), president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said that re-signing Nola is a priority and he hopes to retain the former Cy Young finalist. Nola, for his part, told reporters on Tuesday (including Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer), “I hope I’m back, for sure.” Thus, there seems to be mutual interest in keeping the right-hander in Philadelphia for the long haul.
However, a deal still has to get done, and both sides have acknowledged that it might not happen. Dombrowski says he will pivot to other front-line starters on the open market if he can’t come to an agreement with Nola, while the 30-year-old starter was more cryptic, simply admitting that he doesn’t know “what the future holds.” The two sides reached an impasse in extension talks last winter, with the ace reportedly seeking a much longer deal that the team was willing to offer.
Dombrowski also expressed a vague desire to keep Wheeler beyond the terms of his current contract, although he would not reveal if extension negotiations were part of his offseason plan.
In other news from the NL East…
- Earlier this month, Billy Eppler stepped down from his role as general manager of the Mets amidst an investigation into his misuse of the injured list and injury rehab assignments. His departure from the organization came as quite a surprise, since most were expecting him to stay on as GM under new president of baseball operations David Stearns. Now, however, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Eppler would have been fired had he not resigned, and thus, he will be paid for the two years remaining on his guaranteed contract. Sherman notes that the inquiry is still ongoing, and it is unlikely MLB will announce a ruling before the end of the World Series. Given the scope of the investigation, it’s not hard to understand why the team chose to part ways with Eppler; Stearns has a busy enough offseason ahead of him as it is.
- Sticking with the Mets, Martino reports that other teams are “under the impression” that Mets coaches are essentially available for hire, given the likelihood that a new manager will come in and clean house. Indeed, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner is already drawing interest from at least one other club, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. However, Hefner prefers to wait and see if he fits into the team’s future plans (in other words, if the new manager wants to keep him on) before he takes an interview with another club. Hefner, who played for the Mets from 2012-13, has already survived two managerial hirings in his four years as the pitching coach, so it makes sense that he isn’t ready to pack his bags just yet.
- Back to the Phillies, the team has announced that bullpen coach Dave Lundquist will not return for the 2024 season. Lundquist, 50, has been with the organization since 2018, starting as the pitching coach for Triple-A Lehigh Valley before becoming assistant pitching coach and then bullpen coach for the major league team. The bullpen has become a legitimate strength under his guidance, going from one of the worst in the league to one of the best in just three seasons. The Phillies are also parting ways with assistant hitting coach Jason Camilli, who joined the staff in 2022 after spending 15 years as a minor league hitting coach with the Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Reds organizations.
Ghost Pepper
Sounds like there’s no “hometown discount “ from Wheeler.
myaccount2
I’m assuming you mean Nola, but given all the six figure contracts Middleton has allowed Dombrowski to hand out, can you blame him for not wanting to take a discount? As the longest-tenured Phillie, I think it would be a slap in the face for them to ask that of him.
Ghost Pepper
Yes Nola , thanks for catching that.
I would assume if Philly gets a break then maybe Nola gets the years.
Personally, I’d like to see him stay .
Chicken In Philly?
Other way around. He’s maybe worth a high average salary, but the shorter the term the better.
gbs42
“Hometown discounts” are ridiculous.
Regarding the “hometown” part, players don’t have a choice which team they spend their first 6-7 major league seasons with, not to mention a few years in the minors bouncing around towns and cities at the whim of the big league team.
Teams already get the “discount” part over those first 6-7 seasons. Keeping a key franchise player might even be worth a “hometown premium.”
acoss13
These teams are quite wealthy they don’t need discounts.
JoeBrady
These teams are quite wealthy they don’t need discounts.
=======================
Isn’t that all relevant? I’m pretty sure that Nola has no issues putting food on the table either.
I’m not sure why anyone would object to a hometown discount either way. Even out here, where money means something, I wouldn’t leave my job for a 10% increase.
carlos15
Especially since it’s not his hometown
Yeti
Prime example of a player that will be vastly overpaid – guy looks like a million bucks but has peaked years ago & some team will now be paying for “veteran presents”. Which usually have a lump of coal inside & if you accrue enough of them you will be well on your way to a rebuild.
920kodiak
See Exhibit A: Nationals, Washington
TMQ
Couldn’t disagree more with that statement. Nola is and has been a borderline too 10 pitcher in baseball. Velocity has never been his calling card which means he should be able to continue his high level of play for years to come.
D2323
Mets should keep Hefner he did a great job with Senga . Would also prefer to keep Chavez as bench coach not hitting coach as the offense wasn’t great. Counsel is entitled to clean house and bring his own staff in, but he should talk with the young guys they already have on staff first.
DonOsbourne
The Mets have Jeff Albert all ready to take over as the hitting coach. Albert is certifiable hitting genius. Just as John Mozeliak.
JackStrawb
Hefner couldn’t turn ONE of the relievers the Mets culled the world to bring on board into a useful pitcher. He couldn’t teach even one of them to throw 15-20 pitches 3x a week at a league average rate.
Not one.
Hefner is gone. He’s waiting around because he’s hugely unlikely to get another job as the head pitching coach for an MLB team, unless say Detroit or Oakland wants a body.
There’s failure, then there’s whatever abomination Hefner and Eppler combined to produce in Queens.
13Morgs13
I would let both Hoskins and Nola walk. Also I would upgrade 3B if I’m the Phillies. Bohm isn’t it
HBan22
Bohm’s defense improved quite a bit this season, and he could very well continue to improve with the bat. The free agent class for infielders is weak, so I think they’ll stick with him for at least one more season.
Hoskins is gone, but I think there’s still a chance they keep Nola.
bergeraj
He only had 4 errors but was a -9 @3B but -11 total in DRS. Only 1 worse on the Phillies was Schwarber. Turner was -10 and Casty was -9.
Rsox
Finding a First Baseman is much easier than finding a Third Baseman. Bohm improved and the Phillies may want to consider keeping Bryce Harper at 1B. Aside from Jeimer Candelario there aren’t many “upgrades” available unless teams believe last season was an outlier for Matt Chapman
Chicken In Philly?
Someone will pay Chapman and unfortunately regret it. Shoulder issues for third basemen don’t age well. He’s incredible when healthy, and he plays through pain, but I’d love to see him heal fully.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
I’m gonna send you a copy of that old Elvis Presley hit, “Don’t Be Cruel”! I hope both Nola and Hoskins will be back.
The team really missed Hoskins’ bat and clubhouse influence. Until Harper took over 1B, the position was a blank hole in the batting order as Hall, Clemens and Cave didn’t do very much.
Dombro has to improve the bench. It was a glaring weak spot. Of the lot, only Edmundo Sosa (10 HR) did anything of note when called upon.
Idosteroids
Not every position player is going to be an all-star. B0hm is an average player. He has his big moments, but can disappear for long stretches. 2022 his bat overshadowed his lack of defensive production. 2023 he flipped that script as his defensive production overshadowed his major offensive regression. His arm strength, already towards the bottom of the league for 3B, is trending in the wrong direction.
Rsox
Offensive regression?
Career highs in Home Runs, RBI’s, Doubles, Walks. Highest OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+ of his career in a full season. Fewest strikeouts in a full seaaon for him as well. Not sure where he regressed…
Idosteroids
Nearly every offensive metric is down this season. Check baseball savant for yourself.
Idosteroids
He also had a 0.5 WAR this season which is a replacement player level. Not sure what you are looking at.
citizen
keep castelanos in rf..defense allows the other teams to win. Nola walks to yankees.
rond-2
Pirates should sign Nola or S. Grey or….
jorge78
Meh, Nola is starting to slip. Let him go…..
whosehighpitch
Nola can walk. He wants 25-30 million. Can’t pay everybody. Let him go to STL and pick up a QO draft compensation. Pay Hader and let Abel get much needed big keague experience.
DarkSide830
Yeah, replace your #2 with a rookie. Brilliant plan.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Correct you are, darkSide830.
Besides, this past season, Abel didn’t exactly look like the second coming of Nola or Wheeler.
DarkSide830
Abel’s issue is he is erratic. Has some great games and some bad ones. Certainly has promise, but he isn’t MLB ready.
whosehighpitch
Let Bohm go??? Alright then let Rhys Hoskins take the reps at 3rd base
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Man, pretty crazy that Wheeler has more than lived up to that deal. For $118M over 5 years, in the first 4 years he’s provided millions more worth of value every year, it seems.
I know he’s getting to that age where guys drop off a bit, but I could see a 2 year/$70M or 3 year/$100M extension for Wheeler, amazingly enough.
stevewpants
Well and it is interesting that he signed a little bit of a discount deal in the first place because of his injury issues on the Mets, and performed during his Philly contract what he was always capable of. With the extension you suggest it is like he gets to what his first free agent contract would have been had he been healthier with the Mets.
Blue Baron
@TrillionaireTeamOperator: Why don’t you think he won’t just go to free agency and see if he can get a five-year deal somewhere?
longines64
Nola is erratic. He takes the ball every 5th day for sure but it’s a toss up what you’ll get game to game. Deep counts, a lot of foul balls then one gets launched deep.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Somebody in the Mets’ org disliked Eppler so much that they snitched to MLB.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Never understood in the first place how Eppler even got the GM job. It’s not as though he turned the Angels into a dynasty while he was there.
As an aside, there must be more to MLB’s investigation than just him misusing the IL. Teams have been playing games with that for years.
DanzigInTheDark
Eppler was literally the 13th choice for the Mets in winter 2021 – that’s the only reason he got the job.
JackStrawb
My suspicions fall on Cohen.
The IL foolishness is similar to the crimes he committed with his fund that got him a 2-year suspension while lackeys took a harder fall.
Cohen would have okayed this, and now Eppler’s not only get 2 years of paid vacation, but something under the table to keep his mouth shut.
YankeesBleacherCreature
It’s plausible that Cohen was OK with pushing boundaries. I know the guy who took the fall for a NY gun charge for Jay-Z in his early years. He helped him start a clothing line when he got out of prison and took care of his family when.
cpdpoet
Feels like some team will shoot an overpay at Nola and he’ll jump. Not that I’d blame him depending on the difference. The Phillies got some insane worth from his expired 60mill contract…. Am on record as saying if Nola stays with the Phils and hits 200w, he is a lock for the HOF. @30 and 90w w/ a lot of mileage is fact….so we’ll see…
After boldly dipping into the deep end with So Taguchi and Tadihito Iguchi, it might be time for another go round with a Japanese player? Phillies are on record as having scouted Yamamoto and he’s in his mid 20’s…… Philadelphia just never seems to be in on major Japanese talent?
DarkSide830
Yamamoto is the man I want. Nola is probably #2 on my list.
citizen
phillies HOF maybe, hes no kershaw 20 game sub 2.7 era winner.
cpdpoet
Times have changed and metrics have changed. Point was 200g winners are now a HOF threshold. And him staying with only one team would cement it.
Was not comparing him to Kershaw….?Just like, well nevermind….you made your point…..
brooklyn62
The Mets have to pay Eppler for 2 more years?? Seems like Cohen likes to pay to jettison former Mets personnel.
onthebucks
The Phils have a lot more to do this offseason than just resign Nola. As it stands, the Phils and Nola have different ideas of what a new contract should entail. The Phils may be willing to do $20 – $25 million per season for 4 or 5 seasons, but Nola is reportedly looking for something on the order of $30 million for 7 or 8 seasons. Some team may pay that amount, but the Phils won’t given Nola’s recent inconsistency and vulnerability. The Phils will be able to find more pitching in the free agent and trade markets, and they should seriously consider trading Schwarber for some of that pitching. It’s true that Schwarber hit 47 homers in 2023, but he also hit only .197 and was statistically the worst defensive outfielder in the major leagues. With a team that will be older next season, the Phils can’t afford to waste their DH position exclusively on Schwarber. They need to keep the position open so the team’s veterans can continue to get regular plate appearances while still getting days off from fielding. The Phils also need to use the leadoff position in the lineup to better advantage given their excellent running game. Additionally, the Phils can’t afford to risk injury to Harper by continuing to play him at first base. He belongs in RF/DH. The Phils can probably resign Hoskins to play first base at a fair price – and they should. The Phils can win the championship in 2024 without Nola or Schwarber, especially if they acquire a new starter and closer, and resign Hoskins.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Brevity, my man. Brevity! MLBTR is basically a chat room and not a test of who can write the best essay. Twenty-five words or less, please.
Fred McGriff HR
Backup
How do you actually manage to read the complete articles if they contain 3,4,5 paragraphs. Yet you’re asking someone for “twenty five words or less”, why?
Oh, how reading and comprehension has slipped. Maybe he should write in acronyms or text/sms lingo.
Bill Kane
I disagree with trading Schwarber. He is a lock for 40 home runs a year. Hoskins is just as streaky as Schwarber but less on the upside. Nola is inconsistent but so far durable which is huge. The past 2 years he has been great in the wild card and division series and falters in the NLCS. I wouldn’t mind Snell as a replacement for him.
DonC.
Stupid and way too long
seth3120
I want Nola on the Cardinals but the Phillies are a WS contender Dombrowski won’t let him go without a bidding war
drasco036
Nola isn’t a frontline starter. The guy is delusional which is why an extension isn’t going to happen. Maybe after he realizes no team views him as a TOR starter and certainly isn’t going to pay him like one, he will come to sense and re-sign with the Phillies
DarkSide830
Nola was a frontline starter in 2022 and asked to be paid as such. Even if a #2, he’ll still get paid because he takes down starts.
drasco036
He isn’t a number 2. Nola is at best a 3 and leans more to 4. Dudes worth about 5 years 85 million. He thinks he’s worth 200
JoeBrady
I’d bet serious money that Nola finishes in the top 40% of SPs next year. That’s where #2 starts.
JackStrawb
@drasco036 Of course Nola’s a frontline starter. 3.30 FIP fr 2020-2023, Historically great control. Put him in front of a competent offense and his ERA will be a lot more in line with with that FIP, which would have left him 6th in the NL this year.
32 starts a year–literally. Average of 193 ip the last 4 seasons.
He’s Zack Wheeler if Wheeler gave up half a HR more every 9 innings. His K rate is 10.5 compared to ZW’s 9.7 over the last four season.
The concern is the falling K rate and the mileage. I wouldn’t give Nola 7/200m but he won’t miss that number by much. Look at what Rodon got.
Chris from NJ
I always loved Wheeler’s stuff but after his first 3-4 years I thought man this guy could have it all if he could just stay healthy. And for the Mets his health was always a question. But man was I wrong I thought Philly might get 2 years out of that deal and he has been worth every penny. Glad I was wrong. Love watching him pitch even in a Philly uniform. As far as Nola It looks like he’s trending down stuff wise. Has lost a few ticks and it makes his secondary stuff really hittable. Lots of mileage so buyer beware. But like I said I was wrong on Wheeler so maybe it’s an off year for Nola or he was hurt and pitched thru it.
JackStrawb
@Chris from NJ Bill James was right when he said, ‘a lot of what we think is good pitching is really good defense.’
Nola’s falling K rate’s a concern, and this is the first season since 2019 when his FIP was over 3.37, but he’s been there before.
If you dig down and see what the problem was, you might get a deal—or you might wildly overpay. This is where a team with a top analytics crew capable of digging in to swinging strike rate, HR/FB, and all that good stuff, taking the luck out of every pitch, is worth the several millions of dollars any smart team is paying them.
Chris from NJ
I totally agree with everything you said. I think age and attrition are what’s ailing Mr. Nola. One thing analytics has never been able to deduce is when a player enters his decline. It can tell you a player may physically peak at 27 or 28 but it can’t tell when and how fast the skills possessed can erode.
JackStrawb
@Chris from NJ Well said indeed. Allow me to suggest that while analytics is far from the last word on predictions, one of the things it’s good at is teasing out MORE truth rather than THE truth, from piles of data—and by doing that letting the analyst arrive at more accurate predictions (granting that what we’re talking about, to use a common example, is being able to predict tomorrow’s weather with 80% instead of 70% accuracy. And given that a team will rarely make more than a couple of enormously significant FA signings in a given offseason, what you’ve done by tipping the scale by 10% a couple of times, is hardly a guarantee you’ll get it right).
Take the unpleasant decline in Nola’s K rate, an almost perfect 1 K per year every year for the last 3. What analytics can do is tell a GM how accurate that is, in the sense of how much it reflects actual decline in Nola’s ability to fool hitters. In 2020 Nola reached what for him was an unprecedented rate of 12.1 K/9, but it wasn’t until 2022, when his K rate had fallen to 10.3 K/9, that his FIP reached a career low of 2.58 in no small part because his BB/9 fell from 2.9 per 9 in 2020 to 1.3 per 9 in 2022. Analytics will further tease out his ‘true’ K rates each year: Was he facing easier competition? Was the aggregate OBP of the hitters he faced meaningfully different from year to year? Figure out five of those ‘true’ numbers (the moral equivalents of fangraphs’ xOBA and xWRC+, and etc) and if they all make things look worse for Nola, you might well decide not to match the top offer he gets from, say, San Diego.
You might decide, on the other hand, that he doesn’t actually show a pattern of decline given his best season by the underlying numbers was actually in 2022, that he sacrificed K’s in 2021, 2022, and 2023 in order to improve his BB rate, and that the decline in efficiency in 2023 was primarily the result of some bad luck on fly balls that turned into HR against him.
Anyway, sorry for carrying on. Just thinking how analytics doesn’t give you exact answers—more that it gives you suggestions, and can steer you in the right direction without any guarantee that you’ll win the race.