When the Cubs announced that they had agreed to terms with second baseman Nico Hoerner on a three-year contract extension on the eve of Opening Day back in March, the deal was regarded as a somewhat surprising one around the league. As noted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco at the time of the deal, it’s unusual for a player to sign an extension that buys out just one free agent year once eligible for arbitration. The deal that Hoerner and the Cubs agreed upon did just that, however: the deal covers the 2024-26 campaigns, buying out Hoerner’s final two years of arbitration and his first year as a free agent for a total guarantee of $35MM.
That’s a fairly hefty sum for a player who was making just over $2.5MM for the 2023 season after his first trip through arbitration. Hoerner was coming off a strong season as the club’s starting shortstop in 2022, where he accumulated 4.0 fWAR thanks to strong defense at short combined with offense that was just a touch above league average (106 wRC+). Impressive as that season was, there were plenty of questions about whether or not he would be able to replicate his 2022. Hoerner had struggled badly with injuries in 2021, missing three months with forearm, hamstring, and oblique issues. What’s more, the club’s offseason signing of Dansby Swanson pushed Hoerner to second base, where his strong defense would be less valuable. Given those question marks, it was fair to wonder if the Cubs were overvaluing their former first-round pick.
Fortunately for both sides, Hoerner’s 2023 campaign was a major step toward quieting any doubts regarding the decision to extend him. Concerns about Hoerner as an injury-prone player were surely quieted by him following up a 135-game campaign last year by spending just eleven days of the season on the IL with 150 games played and a whopping 688 plate appearances, one more than his 2021 and ’22 seasons combined.
The similar sample sizes demonstrate how consistent Hoerner’s production with the bat has been. After slashing .286/.341/.400 (106 wRC+) in 2021-22, Hoerner’s 2023 season was virtually identical with a slash line of .283/.346/.383 with a wRC+ of 102. Though his power dipped slightly, he made up for it by walking at an improved 7.1% clip while posting a phenomenal 12.1% strikeout rate. Only seven qualified hitters struck out less often than Hoerner in 2023, and of them only Luis Arraez, Jose Ramirez, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Alex Bregman posted better offensive seasons by measure of wRC+. His 88.6% contact rate was third best in baseball this year, behind only Arraez and Steven Kwan.
Hoerner’s defense has been similarly consistent. His glovework at shortstop last year was strong in 2022, with +10 Defensive Runs Saved per Fielding Bible and +13 Outs Above Average per Statcast. After moving to second this year, however, his defense has received even stronger marks. His +14 DRS in 2023 is the ninth-best figure among all infielders this season, while his +15 OAA ranks eighth among qualified infielders. Only Swanson, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Andres Gimenez posted better marks than Hoerner according to both metrics this year.
In addition to repeating the elite strikeout rate and middle infield defense that made the Cubs want to extend him in the first place, Hoerner’s added another dimension to his game this year by becoming one of the top base stealing threats in the majors. After stealing 20 bases in 2022, the 26-year-old took his baserunning to another level this season by swiping 43 bags, fifth-most in the majors, in just 50 attempts. According to Fangraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning metric, BsR, Hoerner’s 9.7 figure was second best in all of the major leagues behind only rookie sensation Corbin Carroll, who became just the sixth player this century to steal 50 bases in his rookie season.
Taking Hoerner’s defense, contract ability, and baserunning together, his 2023 campaign was worth 4.7 fWAR, tied with Yandy Diaz and Cal Raleigh for the 22nd-best figure in the sport. If Hoerner is able to keep up anything close to this level of production over the life of his extension, a deal that left many scratching their heads at the start of the season will look like an excellent gamble by Chicago’s front office, and Hoerner could find himself in line for a much larger payday following the 2026 season, when he’ll still be just 29 years old.
Excited to see more from this guy!
This was a great deal by the Cubs. It is the type of smart thing that AA does with the Atlanta ball club. Steele, Hoerner, Swanson and Amaya are players to build around. Happ and Suzuki are ok assets. Morel is an acceptable DH or trade bait. The team has multiple CF prospects. I still worry that PCA is equivalent to Christian Pache. The Cubs need to add one elite starter, such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Blake Snell, and one or two corner infielders. With the Brewers only having one year left of Burnes and Woodruff, the Cubs do not need to improve much they just need to replace the value of Bellinger, Candelario, Stroman and Hendricks. Hope they keep Gomes for one last year, too.
And if your Hoerner you can’t pass up the 35 million. It’s hard to turn down your first fortune.
They absolutely need to improve. The division or wild card is within reach but more help needed to advance deep into the post season. Hoyer can’t take his foot of the gas.
Replacing Belli will be a challenge. I don’t think he’s comes back. I’m neutral with regards to resigning Candelario. Looking at least one big trade. Soto or Alonso will be the big move. Another starter and bullpen help. It will be interesting to see how Hoyer continues to build the roster. Who he deals if they go after Soto or Alonso.
One of my favorite plays out of all teams all season was Nico scoring from first on an infield pop fly. Awesome hustle.
It’s nice to know that MLBTR doesn’t pay its writers enough that poor guys like Nick Deeds have to take jobs as player agents by writing promotional articles like this. Maybe, they can pay their writers a fair amount so they can focus on writing real articles.
But didn’t you hear? The Orioles rotation is in better shape than you might think!
You could always subscribe since you comment 50 times on every article, that could help.
Mostly Texas articles
Mostly every article
God I know. These articles are SO cringey.
Hoerner signed an extension. He’s not a trade candidate or an upcoming free agent. There is no relevance here to a TRADE RUMORS site. It’s just pure puff garbage.
They go “oh hey let’s paste in some stats that anyone can look up on Fangraphs and maybe we’ll sound smart.” Classic MLBTR puff formula that any monkey with a typewriter could do.
A monkey with a typewriter.. and a weird grudge.. could’ve written that comment.
I have a novel idea; considering taking me up on this. Maybe, just maybe, you can ignore the articles you don’t want to read and click on ones that pique your interest.
Mind-blowing concept, I know
When I get Hoerner my extension looks good too
I heard you were a shortstop who rarely even gets to second base.
His intangibles are exactly what you want in a ballplayer too… very smart player who puts his team above himself… not difficult rooting for guys like Nico!
Nico has a high baseball IQ, hustles on plays, reads the plays great, there’s no fumbling around with him, it’s awesome to watch him.
“Impressive as that season was” is NOT proper English. It’s “AS impressive as that season was.” Come on. You’re a professional writer. Act like it.
Grammar nerds are the bane of society. You provide no value to this comment section
John, somehow your comment provided even less.
No, if there is even a small chance of silencing grammar nerds, then I have provided immense value
Good grammar is cool, ya nerd.
What about his “contract ability?”
I don’t see what the big deal is. All the Cubs did was figure out what Hoerner was going to get in arbitration the next 3 years. No muss, No fuss, No hurt feelings. Just a difference in Organizational philosophy from say the Brewers and Rays who try to save every dollar. The Cubs came up with a number, Offered it and Nico accepted it. A lot of teams have decided to go this route and I think it works more often than not. You only need to look at the Burnes debacle to see where the Cubs are going. Arbitration hearings usually end up in finger pointing and accusations which even if it saves a few bucks isn’t probably worth the money it saves in the long run.
That isn’t quite accurate. For starters Nico was extended one year. The other thing was a lot of people complained/were confused about the amount of money the Cubs were paying Hoerner, bumping his salary from 2.5 million to 11 the next two seasons. The complaint then was Hoerner wouldn’t have made 22 million over the next two years and they should have just went to arbitration.
I think if Nico went to arbitration after the season he had he’d probably get at least 11.5 million if not more so not sure I get your argument. I guess we’ll have to wait and see if there is some kind of comparison to be made in this years arbitration class.
It’s not my argument, it was the complaint people were making when the extension happened. My only complaint was it was just a one year extension, I love Nico. I remember being the lone guy saying Nico was better than Madrigal when the Cubs traded for him.
My only complaint with Hoerner is that I wish he would be a little more selective early in the count.
I will say there was zero chance Nico would have made 11 million this year, Burns made I believe around 6 his first time through arbitration and didn’t hit 11 his second trip through, Nico wasn’t getting a 8.5 million dollar raise.
drascoo – you say that you, ‘were the lone guy to say Nico was better than Madrigal’??
So you were the only one here, to actually believe that Nico was a better player than Madrigal? Give me a break!!
Did you ever consider that most people here actually realized that was so obvious- that they didn’t think it was necessary to even mention it?
Comments like that, are what sometimes make this comment section hard to digest.
The point was not how much Nico was going to get next year in arbitration. It’s how much he would of gotten with the same level of success over the next 3 years. Yeah I’m sure he might not have gone up to 12 million next year , But when you average it all out he would of probably been making more by 2026. The contract averages out, More now , same later, No fuss, No nasty arbitration hearings, No drama. Smart Management IMO. And I’ve loved Nico since I first saw him play and I’ve been Madrigals biggest detractor . I thought You were Madrigals biggest fan Drascoo? I hated Nicky 2 strike since he got here. Most guys won’t pass up that first shot at FA around age 30. It just doesn’t happen very often unless you give him an open checkbook.
The guy they shouldn’t have extended is Happ.
Steele should be next.
Why? He’s first year arbitration eligible this year.
Probably lock up Steele after 2024, before he gets even more expensive.