Japanese right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa is planning a move to North American baseball, as the Nippon Ham-Fighters starter told reporters (including the Kyodo News) at a press conference. Uwasawa isn’t yet a full agent, so he will be made available to Major League via the posting system. Uwasawa turns 30 in February, and has a 3.19 ERA over 1118 1/3 career innings with the Fighters, along with a 7.5% walk rate and a modest 19.67% strikeout rate.
Making his NPB debut in 2014, Uwasawa is a three-time All-Star (including this season) and has developed into a reliable starter in terms of both results and durability, apart from a freak injury that shortened his 2019 season. Uwasawa had his left knee fractured by a line drive that year, but has returned in good health, tossing 102 innings during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and then throwing at least 152 innings in each of the last three full NPB seasons.
MLBTR’s Dai Takegami Podziewski has regularly featured Uwasawa in his NPB Players To Watch feature, as Uwasawa has made his intentions clear for some time that he wanted to test himself against North American competition. There are some concerns over Uwasawa’s ability to transition to the big leagues, as Dai wrote that “Uwasawa doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that [Kohei] Arihara had when he was coming to MLB (although Arihara himself was wild during his Rangers tenure).” The mention of Arihara isn’t a promising comp, as Arihara had a 7.57 ERA over 60 2/3 innings with Texas in 2021-22 before returning to Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2023 campaign.
Nonetheless, MLB teams are gauging for themselves how well they think Uwasawa might fare against big league competition. A Sports Hochi report from September indicated that scouts from the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Reds, Royals, Cubs, and Angels all saw Uwasawa in action, so the righty is drawing a fair amount of interest. While Uwasawa doesn’t have the high profile of NPB stars like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and others this winter, he does represent an interesting mid-level entry into the pitching market who probably won’t require a particularly large contract.
As a reminder about the MLB/NPB posting system, any players with less than nine full years of experience must first be posted by his Japanese team before negotiating with Major League clubs. Once posted, Uwasawa has 45 days to talk with any MLB team he wishes, and he would return to the Fighters after those 45 days if no contract agreement is reached. The Fighters would receive a posting fee if Uwasawa did sign with a Major League team, with the fee being worth at least 20% of the guaranteed value of Uwasawa’s contract. Should Uwasawa sign for more than $25MM in guaranteed money, the Fighters would receive a higher fee.
stymeedone
I can see teams being concerned about the low strikeout rate. Backend starter?
JoeBrady
I don’t see anything there. Over the past three years, his K/W looks to be running about 7.2/2.7. I can’t see that translating well.
Dorothy_Mantooth
I agree Joe. He doesn’t seem to have the attributes of a successful MLB starting pitcher these days. There’s only one way to find out though, right? Some team might offer him a 2 year, $10M deal to see if he can become the next Kyle Hendricks. If not, maybe he can find some success as a long man out of the pen. Some team will take a chance on trying to sign him for sure.
PiratesFan1981
Rays sign him and turn him into Greg Maddox. Wait and see
Fred McGriff HR
JoeBrady
I guarantee you’ve never seen him pitch live, yet you ‘see nothing there’.
I agree with the “I can’t see” part, because you haven’t seen him.
JoeBrady
I am pretty sure that I saw the stats. You can check me on the K/W, since I did the calculations in my head, but I’d bet they are right in all material respects.
FWIW, we don’t have to “see” every player, if we have their stats. I didn’t have to “see” Adell play in order to “see” that his K/W likely wouldn’t work in the pros.
This one belongs to the Reds
Probably worth taking a chance for a pitching needy team but he won’t get big money being at best a #3-5 guy
BuddyBoy
At best a #5 so a team would have to very needy. There are some real talents coming the next couple years though and relatively young ones at that.
roiste
True #3 guys get big money these days. This guy seems more like a #5/swingman type at best. Unless he’s got elite deception or a crazy high spin rate, a 91 mph fastball with worse command than Arihara isn’t gonna play in the MLB.
Bobcastelliniscat
Not sure what value he would be to the Reds. They have more than their fair share of #4 Starters
This one belongs to the Reds
You’re right. They need a veteran ace.
PutPeteinthehall
Not a good bet to succeed. Doubt he gets any real money. Or at least what an established mlb player would expect
HalosHeavenJJ
I like pitch to contact guys when they are on their game. Quick outs, keeps the defense engaged.
It’s those games when they’re off that are the problem.
gbs42
If the defense behind them is weak, it can get ugly quickly.
Cardsfanatik redux
Pitch to contact lost the Cardinals a TON of games this year. The teams in the post season have guys that strike you out. This is a typical Mo move though. Choke and puke.
Cmurphy
Cardinals ranked last in DER, 28th in DPs and made the third most errors.
Pitch to contact works if defense is good. Cardinals were atrocious.
JoeBrady
I like pitch to contact guys when they are on their game.
========================
The issue, in my amateur opinion, is that you need enough of a FB to go from 2-0 to 2-1 without the hitter taking you deep. Or get a K when you have a guy on 3rd.
Texas Outlaw
Better luck just rolling the dice on a triple A guy to be your number 5.
Old York
Speaking of posted Japanese players, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has had two games in the playoffs that he’s been bombed. 5 runs against Lotte and 7 runs against Hanshin. Buyer beware.
Dorothy_Mantooth
We’ll still take Yamamoto in Boston. 8/$160M should be enticing enough to get it done. They can tweak the salary / incentives a bit if he’s looking for more money, but 8/$160 is a solid starting point for sure.
websoulsurfer
He will still get 8/200. He is 25 and his ERA over a full season is more representative of his ability than a 2 game sample.
Maybe the Giants, who sent several scouts over to see him pitch in the NPB playoffs, will not bid on him because of your comment.
RobblyDobs
Could see this guy as a cheap SP5 for teams with multiple rotation holes, like the Cardinals. 2-year deal or something
Four4fore
Not with a posting fee attached.
RobblyDobs
Depends. Small contract = small fee.
HalosHeavenJJ
Don’t be sending Ohtani’s replacement to the Cards ha ha.
Hired Gun 23
“Uwasawa isn’t yet a full agent”…so is he half full or half empty?
baseballandchips
Exactly and they do not care to correct it. Professionalism.
ilikesports
It’s one line in a free post from guys that put out a ton of high-level content. Forget about it.
FP300
As an NPB fan he’s a very good pitcher and under the radar. From what I have seen on pacificleague.com/ptv, He throws a high spin FB that can get up to 152 (94.5 mph). He led the pacific league in 2022 in FB sw/str % (ahead of Yamamoto). Kind of reminds me like a Merrill Kelly, Kenta Maeda, Aaron Civale type pitcher that can throw many pitches for strikes. There have been similar pitchers from the NPB that have performed well in MLB such as Maeda, Iwakuma, Uehara and Kawakami. MLB needs pitchers that can log innings.
Slider_withcheese
The Asians only want to play for the Dodgers or Yankees. If they’re offered a contract with a team like Detroit or Milwaukee, they’re staying home.
SgtGrumbles
Ahh yes, how could I forget Ichiro’s time with the Yankees. Or the amazing debut of Yu Darvish in Chavez Ravine. SMH
mikedickinson
Ichiro was a decent player when he played for the Yankees….
baseballandchips
Anyone can write and talk about downside of those foreign players but what is his upside? Why does he have such high swing and miss rate on his four seamer even though he does not throw as hard as Yamamoto or Sasaki in NPB? If they want to bring up the comparison between Arihara and Uwasawa, they should dig into why Arihara could not succeed in Texas/MLB. Why did he lose his command? Was it the ball? Was it the mound? Was it his injury?
Old York
@baseballandchips
I’m curious, where do you see the data breakdown of his four-seam swing/miss rate?
baseballandchips
x.com/matsumotodchnf/status/1590668315412017152?s=…
x.com/aozora__nico2/status/1706303529860685864?s=4…
x.com/aozora__nico2/status/1578014479945977859?s=4…
“上沢直之” is Uwasawa’s name in Japanese. NPB’s official website doesn’t show these numbers but there are some people doing their one data collection. These numbers from 2022 and 2023. There might be some small errors but his numbers seem consistent and believable.
baseballandchips
NPB’s official website doesn’t show these numbers but there are some people doing their own data collection. I was gonna put some twitter links here but it didn’t go through. I saw his Swing and Miss % for his 4 seamer and it is around 9.5%-10.6%.
FP300
He’s a good pitcher and I’m excited to see what he will do in MLB. I watch a lot his games on pacific league tv that show fb up to 152 (94.5 mph) and high spin rate. He led the pacific league in 2022 in FB sw/str % (ahead of Yamamoto and Sasaki). Kind of reminds me like a Merrill Kelly, Kenta Maeda, Aaron Civale type that can throw many pitches for strikes. There have been similar pitchers from the NPB that have performed well in MLB such as Maeda, Iwakuma, Uehara and Kawakami. MLB needs pitchers that can throw quality innings like he does.
websoulsurfer
I never saw him top 150 km/h. Sat 144-145. Occasionally hit 149. When he has great command, he is effective. When he doesn’t, he gets rocked.
andrewf
Probably not a good idea, Uwasawa is probably best served staying in the NPB monetarily as he’s not going to make what Kohei Arihara made heading into the 2021 season due to his worse peripheral numbers and considerably worse BB numbers which suggests that his command is worse than Arihara’s was as well. We would not sign him to an MLB deal as we would probably be better off giving Erick Fedde or Foster Griffin a chance if we didn’t have MLB ready prospects
gbs42
Who is “we?”
MLB Top 100 Commenter
While the headline is fresh “Ham” for the holidays, this one looks more like a turkey.
Instead, pass me the Yams – Yamamoto that is. Yoshinobu looks like a Cy Young competitor.
Fred McGriff HR
Yamamoto got torched for 7 runs in the Japan Series against Hanshin on 28 October, 2023, yet you ‘think’ he’s a “CY Young competitor”, and you’ve never seen Uwasawa pitch.
gbs42
Fred, are you trying to say one bad start outweighs several years of strong performance?
Fred McGriff HR
@gbs42
It’s not what I said at all.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Fred McGriff
Using your logic Clayton Kershaw would not have been a Cy Young competitor pitcher.
I have seen a lot of video of Yamamoto pitching.
Fred McGriff HR
@MannybeingMVP
What “logic” is that that you are referring to?
I’ve seen him pitch live numerous times on TV, not replays. He could be good, but asserting he might be a “Cy Young competitor” is a stretch.
websoulsurfer
Uwasawa is the type of starter that when his command is on, he can be dominating. When his command is off, he will get pounded. He does not have a dominant out pitch to overcome that. A 5th starter at best in MLB.
Fred McGriff HR
It’s always interesting to note that people make comment on a pitcher that they have never seen pitch.
gbs42
The internet, where people love to express their expertise with no actual knowledge.
JoeBrady
Statistics can probably tell us amateurs a lot more than vision can. Age-old stats like K/W relative to power relative to position will tell you a lot more than watching him during a 3-game series.
Fred McGriff HR
One must wonder why MLB clubs employ numerous scouts and have scouting divisions. MLBTR board commenters have now made those scouts ‘redundant’, let’s just read stats…
Lindy
I have absolutely nothing to go on here but as an orioles fan, their recent track record with bringing in established International pitchers is okay. Wei Yen Chen was fairly solid and Wada (sry I can’t remember his first name) was gone just as quick as he had arrived. They picked up Miguel Gonzalez from the Mexican League. Completely different front office but if it’s fairly low money I can see it being a reasonable option if not my first choice to improve the rotation.
gbs42
Tsuyoshi. It took me 15 seconds to look it up.
GarryHarris
This year had a good class of Japanese player. SP Kodai Senga and LF Masataka Yoshida both made my 2023 rookie all star team.