All four Division Series get going tomorrow. The Wild Card series were mostly uncompetitive, with all four ending in a two-game sweep. We’re now on to best-of-five sets that can run through next Friday.
Rangers vs. Orioles
The second round begins in the afternoon when the Rangers head to Baltimore. Texas used Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi to dispatch the Rays, so they’ll go with left-hander Andrew Heaney in Game 1. He’ll be opposed by Baltimore’s breakout staff ace, righty Kyle Bradish.
Texas won 90 games behind a star-studded lineup. Anchored by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim, the Rangers finished third in the majors in runs. The pitching staff is more questionable, especially with Max Scherzer’s availability for the postseason still uncertain. Montgomery and Eovaldi make for a strong top two, but the bullpen has been a concern all season.
Baltimore lost its elite closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery on the eve of the postseason. All-Star Yennier Cano steps into the ninth inning. The O’s sprinted to 101 wins this year, holding off the Rays to lock down an AL East title and the league’s top seed. Adley Rutschman, Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins headline a lineup that ranked seventh in run scoring. Bradish and rookie Grayson Rodriguez lead the rotation. It’s the first playoff appearance for most of a young but ultra-talented Baltimore group.
Twins vs. Astros
The second ALDS sends the AL Central winning Twins to Houston. Minnesota used Pablo López and Sonny Gray in their opening set. They’ll go with Bailey Ober in Game 1 opposite Justin Verlander.
Minnesota held the Blue Jays to one run in their opening series. They’ve had arguably the sport’s best starting rotation, ranking fourth in innings and trailing only the Padres in ERA. Their bullpen isn’t quite as deep, although flamethrowing Jhoan Duran is tough to handle in the ninth inning. While the lineup is built a little more on strong depth than star talent at the top, former first overall pick Royce Lewis raked at a .309/.372/.548 clip in 58 regular season games before launching homers in each of his first two career playoff at-bats against Toronto.
The Astros never quite clicked the way they had during their 106-win regular season last year. Yet even without ever fully running on all cylinders, the defending World Series champions won 90 games and swept Arizona in the final weekend to grab another AL West title. They’ll comfortably turn the ball to Verlander and Framber Valdez for the first two games to support a lineup with Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Altuve firing on all cylinders and backed by Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman and rookie catcher/DH Yainer Diaz.
Phillies vs. Braves
Arguably the most compelling of the Division Series pits the defending NL pennant winners against the best regular season team of 2023. Philadelphia began what they hope to be a second straight run from Wild Card to the Fall Classic by breezing past the Marlins in Round One. They needed Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to do so, so southpaw Ranger Suárez starts tomorrow. Atlanta counters with strikeout king Spencer Strider.
The Phils lean heavily on their excellent top three starters and a star-studded lineup. Bryce Harper has been characteristically stellar, while Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have gotten rolling following slow starts to the season. While the bullpen has been a concern for Philadelphia in prior Octobers, it has held up very well this year. Even though they never threatened Atlanta for a run at the top of the division, the Phils look like one of the most complete teams remaining.
Their pitching staff needs to be up for a challenge. The Braves counter with the best lineup in baseball, a group that runs nine deep and handily outslugged the rest of the league. Atlanta was the only team to reach the 250-homer plateau this year. They hit 307. Matt Olson led the league with 54 longballs and 139 RBI, Ronald Acuña Jr. went 40-70, and everyone else in the starting lineup hit at least 17 homers. To the extent there’s a concern with this team, it’s the rotation beyond Strider. Max Fried battled a blister at the end of the regular season, leaving a little uncertainty headed into his Game 2 start, while Charlie Morton will miss the series due to finger inflammation.
D-Backs vs. Dodgers
The Diamondbacks were the NL’s final playoff qualifier. Arizona knocked off Milwaukee in round one, with the sweep keeping them using #2 starter Merrill Kelly (who’d pitched in the regular season’s final weekend and was lined up for a potential Game 3). Instead, Kelly gets the nod tomorrow against Clayton Kershaw.
With NL Rookie of the Year lock Corbin Carroll leading off, Arizona has gotten strong work from Ketel Marte and underrated slugger Christian Walker. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. carries a hot streak into the postseason, while young catcher Gabriel Moreno had a great second half. Moreno left Game 2 against Milwaukee after being hit on the head with a backswing, but he’s expected to be full-go for this series (via Alden González of ESPN). The one-two of Kelly and Zac Gallen and a bullpen anchored by Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel gives the pitching staff strong talent at the top. The question is the depth — both at the bottom of the lineup and the back half of the starting rotation.
The Dodgers are legitimate World Series contenders yet again. They won 100 games for the fourth consecutive full season. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are going to finish in the top five in MVP balloting. J.D. Martinez is having his best season in a few years, while Max Muncy and rookie James Outman are significant power threats. The Dodgers have an elite collection of late-game arms, leading the majors with a 2.26 relief ERA in the second half behind Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol. It’s a relatively weak rotation for L.A., however. Kershaw’s velocity has been down as he pitches through shoulder discomfort, perhaps leaving rookie Bobby Miller as their most reliable starter. Dave Roberts figures to get to the bullpen early and often.
Orioles, Twins, Braves, DBacks. Texas has a dump rotation, Twins catch lightning, Braves because filth-a-smell-thia, and Dbacks because Zach Davies mom called me and said I have to support them and petition them to bring back her scumbag son. Which is unfortunate because Arizona is gross.
Rotations aren’t everything anymore
What are you talking about? I didn’t realize Zach Davies had an anger problem like the Karen in the state farm commercial?
Is it on Par with Chapman’s? What about Ozuna? Hopefully a little less than Urias? Maybe these men needed better mothers?
Tommy Pham, how’s your dad doing?
Oh he called and wanted to replace Urias with Davies? Sorry bub, it’s after September 1st… You cant wear white and blue after purple and black
Sam Bankman Fried called, said you owe him a t shirt
Replace the snakes with the rays and these were the eight best teams in the 2023 regular season in my book, Rangers were 8, Seattle 9, Milwaukee 10, AZ 11 and Miami 12. Not by record just eye test. Every favorite team looks good to advance to the championship series
Was going for eiher the Brewers or Phillies, but sticking with the Phillies, I think they’ll be able to take on the Braves.
I don’t think Arizona or Houston or Minnesota is better than Seattle but it’s completely fair to think otherwise.
I don’t think I’d agree with Twins being Top 8, I’d put them at 11, but rest of it seems fair, and I’m a Brewers fan.
If the last place team in the AL East had 8 more wins. They would have been a wild card team in the NL. It’s been a gauntlet. The Os don’t have a lot of playoff experience so I’m giving the Rangers the edge in this one. It may have to go to 5. Houston is my favourite to make it in the AL. I like the Braves, but Philly could really push this series if they can get decent pitching, ditto if Braves arms aren’t healthy. I’m rooting for the DBacks with the former Jays on the team, but the Dodgers are a Goliath… hopefully the DBacks can be my David.
I just hope the Astros lose.
Phillies, Dodgers, Texas, Houston
Will go with a +1 here…..
Sign me up.
the Rangers are going to win the world series. I hope.
Phillies vs Dodgers NLCS
Orioles
Phillies
Twins
Dodgers
Orioles vs. Phillies World Series
You think the Braves let the Phillies beat them this year?
No one is going to let anyone beat them, but the Phillies definitely could beat the Braves. That being said, the Braves are a better team. In fact, I think the Braves are the best team in both leagues, but the best team doesn’t always win.
Teams are so close. Hard to impossible to predict. LA seems to have a gap better than ARZ. Rest of these are slightly better than a coin flip at best. Will go ATL but PHI is right there with them just a hair less. BAL by a hair. HOU usually finds a way so will go them.
Diamondbacks!
Want twins to win but as a red Sox fan I know better than to pick against Houston.
Would be great for America if Arizona won, but I have a feeling LA’s pitchers are going to get a huge strike zone.
Easy.
Baltimore over Texas
Houston over Minnesota
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Arizona over Los Angeles
That’s pretty bold to pick the DBacks over the Dodgers. I dig it.
Not really. How many times have the Dodgers lost in the playoffs in the last decade?
They lost a lot
2013 lost NLCS
2014 Lost NLDS
2015 Lost NLDS
2016 lost NLDS
2017 lost WS (they should’ve won)
2018 lost WS
2019 lost NLDS
2020 won Pandemic WS
2021 lost NLCS
2022 lost NLCS
’13-’19 They lost badly in 2018 but they probably should’ve not even won the Pennant
Took a shortened season for them to finally win.
I’m glad they didn’t because I hate the Brewers even more but Boston very likely sweeps Milwaukee.
You still can’t say Dodgers won in 2017, even with Astros scandal. You just never know.
But, as we have seen, anything can happen. This is a different Dodgers team.
Good point, there’s an asterisk next to 2017 and 2020.
I don’t agree that the Dodgers win the 17 series. AJ Hinch managed the Astros pitching masterfully especially games 3 and game 7 while Dave Roberts over managed the Dodgers pitching especially in game 2.
The Astros cheating absolutely ruined Yu Darvish and cost him a lot of money until the Padres came along. Going back and watching, the Stros knew what was coming every pitch. I agree that we can’t say the Dodgers should have won. The Astros were (and are) very good, but I think it’s pretty obvious that Darvish has a better outing without the sign stealing.
I agree except for Philly. I have Atlanta. Otherwise, I’m on board your train. Yes, even picking the Snakes! It’s not that bold. Just because they lack “stars” does t mean they can’t win one more series.
Phillies are good but a bit overrated. They got lucky last year
Please explain the luck? They went on a pretty dominant stretch, cooled off, and went right back into dominant mode for the playoffs. I think the Phillies are just a good team full of stars. There was no luck involved. The Stros were better. In 2023, the Phillies are a much better team than last year, but they’re playing the best team in baseball.
Twins in 5
O’s in 3
Dodgers in 3
Braves in 4
After game 1, .000
I picked O’s and I think they’re in a good position to win but the Rangers could win it. They’re sneaky good
How ironic that the picture is Ozuna wearing a glove. There’s a reason he’s a full time DH.
hogansgoat
Remind everyone how many gold gloves you have at the MLB level.
Braves in 5.
The whole play off system is a farce. The Braves, who won the most games in any league are supposed to get some advantage by doing so, how do they end up playing the highest ranked seed of all the wildcards in the NL. I don’t actually care which team has the most wins in any season, but it is that team who should get some advantage & the most advantage.
The Braves should be playing the DBacks being the lowest ranked of the teams that made it through from the ‘wildcard’ round, and the Phillies should be playing the Dodgers.
I don’t believe it was fair on the Brewers either that they ended up in a 3 game ‘wildcard’ series when they won their division. Hence, I also don’t believe in 2nd and 3rd wildcards being in the play offs either
It shouldn’t be a preset draw. Manfraud baseball and the play off structure is plainly not right or fair, but that is hardly a surprise.
Got it, we go back to 2 divisions, one in each league and the winners meet in the WS, no?
Am not a huge fan of MLB heading to NHL style all in playoffs, but the current format is what we have and allows more teams to “think” they’ve got a shot….hence more fan-bases stay in engaged as well. And YES…money….
You got it right poet…like most things in life, follow the money and you’ll get your answers.
Fred, I also think that the team with the best season record should get some kind of substantial reward. After 162 games, all you get is a bye like the 5 other Division winners? Where is the fairness in that? I think the best season record should get an automatic berth into the League Championship finals and let the other 5 league contenders figure out who gets to play the regular season champ for the right to go to the World Series. This has absolutely no chance of ever happening because it’s a choice between fairness and money.
I agree. The Braves should have the D backs and Dodgers have the Phillies. What happened?
The Braves should be awaiting the results of some kind of multi team National League tournament. I am a fan from the 154 game season in an 8 team League. It just seems unfair to have battled for 162 games and be treated no better than the other 2 Division winners. But I get it that the owners want as many high stakes games as possible no matter how manufactured they are. The money is more important than fairness or aesthetics.
They have homefield throughout. 1 Division winner was already eliminated in the WC round. The Braves have a bye. The Braves are starting their ace against the Phillies #3. What more advantage do they possibly need? Maybe cancel the playoffs entirely and just throw them a parade.
VonPurpleHayes
You never understand factually, they have homefield advantage because they earned it. Furthermore, if you’ve ever played baseball, having 5 days off is a disadvantage and it is not a level playing field in the current play off format.
Try and make an argument against these guys.
twitter.com/i/status/1710690040337011120
Jimmy Rollins has also said having 5 days off is a disadvantage and wants something done about it. Hitters don’t have on/off switches after playing 162. Furthermore, tell me when there has been a 5 game series where you play day one after 5 days off, then sit for another day and play game 2 on day 3, then have more days off. If you think that is fair, then you do not understand the word at all, and you don’t understand baseball or hitting mechanics. Braves hitters timing was off.
Baseball hitters need to play, not sit down for 5 days, and that is irrespective of which teams are involved. You can’t have one set of teams playing whilst other play sim games, it doesn’t replicate real games, atmosphere, pressure, adrenaline.
And here are the stats.
2021 Giants 107-55 L NLDS
2021 Dodgers 106-56 L NLCS
2021 Rays 100-62 L ALDS
2022 Dodgers 111-51 L NLDS
2022 Astros 106-56 W WS
2022 Braves 101-61 L NLDS
2022 Mets 101-61 L NLWCS
1/7 won.
You’re mixing stats to prove your narrative. The 2022 Mets for example, lost the division and had to play in the Wild Card round. The bye did not hurt them because there was no bye. For many of your National League examples, I can counter with the American League from the same years in which the teams with the bye easily won.
I agree the time off isn’t ideal, but I still think the majority of teams would take the bye, homefield and the ability to set up their rotation over having to slog through a best of 3 Wild Card round. Anything can happen in a best of 3.
“You never understand factually, they have homefield advantage because they earned it.” What does this mean? Of course the Braves earned their advantage. That was my point. That’s their reward for winning. Homefield throughout is gigantic. The Braves earned it.
I think the playoff system is fine all things considered. I didn’t necessarily need the extra Wild Card, but now that it’s here, I think this is the best way to handle it. A 1 game elimination round for the WC round is absolutely ridiculous. For example, the Brewers won the division. They shouldn’t have their season ended in one game. I think the thing being lost in this “off days are bad” narrative is that traditionally, the Wild Card teams have been playing for with their season on the line for months while these division winners have been coasting during the regular season. When was the last time the Braves played a series that really mattered before the DS? I think it’s not just the off days hurting these teams. It’s the fact that the Wild Card teams have been battling since June.
VonPurple
You can’t have sides playing whilst other sides sit around for 5 days-that is not equal, it is not fair, it helps zero as far as hitting goes. It’s no surprise Braves hitters bats were cold in game 1, and timing was out. Furthermore, they have played 2 games in 8 days with 1 x 5 day gap, then a game, another day off and then game 2, and now there’ll be another day off to go to Philadelphia.
I do not believe sides that obtain wildcards deserve any home games whatsoever, that’s my opinion. If you play 162 earn the advantages. Furthermore, Philadelphia got 3 games at home for their wildcard series. It should be a 1 game shootout. Winning a ‘wildcard’ means that you didn’t win your division, why should you eg get anything at all when there are teams that won eg 100+ games. You may say, that’s not fair, but it is fair. The regular season is the yardstick of all teams. The post season needs to be fair and equal regards to when teams play. A side that plays, is a side that gains momentum when it wins. You can go through all the sides that had 5 days rest, the results for game 1’s are negative. You can’t have sides playing 162 and then ask them to sit around and wait and twiddle their thumbs.
Last but not least, there is no on/off switch for hitters, that’s why intrasquad games or anything else does not prepare you, there is no atmosphere, there is no intensity, there is no pressure, there is nothing on the line.
Last but not least, you can have a look at the following and then disagree with what they have to say. I’ll take the opinions of ARod, Pedro, Ortiz, and Jeter and Rollins over that of others. They’ve all said that the rest is a disadvantage, and Rollins said “something needs to be done about it by MLB”..
twitter.com/i/status/1710690040337011120
You’re posting the same thing over and over. And the same quotes. I agree that sitting is not ideal, but I still say almost everyone would take their chances with a bye rather than having to play a short series in round 1. Teams are being eliminated while the best teams in the league are rewarded an automatic pass to the 2nd round. It’s not ideal, but there’s no other way to do it. Every team in the majors would still sign up for the bye. The Astros have taken advantage of the bye every single year. The sample size is too small to assume the bye is why the other teams are losing. Remember the Willd Card teams have a fairly high success rate even before the bye was introduced. There are other factors here, and that’s my point.
Some of the repetition in the 2nd post was accidental, nevertheless, it still holds true.
A bye is not a level playing field, and as you’ve said, “take their chances with a bye”. There should be no type of ‘luck’ element with a team that gutsed it out for 100+ wins irrespective of which franchise it is. There are plenty of other “ways to do it”. I agree, get rid of the 3rd wildcard for a start, just one possibility.
The sample size is not too small, as there is evidence before this new format was introduced of teams having 3,4,5 days off not playing well in Gm1 of series and losing series. 5 days is too long a break.
I think you’re missing FredMcGriffHR’s point. The Atlanta Braves withe the best record in MLB should be playing the 84 Win Arizona Diamondbacks instead, they are playing the 90 Win Phillies.
@GaryHarris I agree with reseeding after each round. I also think, in this fair-schedule era, records should count more than division winners. The idea is that the Brewers/Diamondbacks series was a division winner vs a WC team. So the Braves in theory are being rewarded by playing a WC team from the WC series, but the Brewers were eliminated. So as a result of that, things should get reseeded IMO. So yeah. I agree with that.
The field is too small for a bracket format.
Their advantage was a first-round bye. They are starting their ace against the Phillies #3. They also have home field. I think it’s too much of an advantage to be honest. I know last year we saw the Braves and Dodgers lose the DS, but I still think that’s just because the Phillies and Padres are teams full of stars. The AL played out with the bye making the path significantly easier for the Stros.
Last year, the Dodgers had the best regular season record. If they had an automatic League Finals berth, maybe the Padres don’t grind through 2 series to play LA. The way it’s set up now, a team grinds through the season and achieves the best record. Two other league teams win a Division and get the same reward of a bye. Where is the reward for best record over 162? The importance of best season record is too diluted these days. The incentive is reduced to bragging rights.
It’s about getting the bye and homefield throughout the playoffs. To counter your example, last year’s WS winner had the best record in the AL. They were rewarded a bye and home field throughout. They coasted to the Series. The Phillies were the only team to beat them twice, but the Stros still one 4-2. They didn’t waste their advantage. The Dodgers did.
Scherzer being on the roster woild change everything.
Hey Fred, I’m not a MLB player making millions so your comment is meaningless
Hogansgoat
No, it’s not “meaningless”, you’re poking rubbish at Ozuna when he has a Gold Glove, that means he can play the outfield if required, his fielding % throughout his career also supports that. So you’re patently incorrect. Your comment is “meaningless’ garbage.
I have O’s, Twins, Phillies, and Dodgers winning their series. Then I believe it will be Twins and Phillies in the World Series. Twins win it in 6
I am resigned to the current format. The blurring of leagues with complete interleague play these days makes the notion of a National League and an American League too arbitrary to make sense. Maybe the playoff system will change again with expansion. If anything, they will probably devalue having the best 162 record even more.