Perhaps one of the most interesting dilemmas facing the Dodgers as they turn toward the coming offseason is the pending free agency of veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. After signing with the club on a one-year, $10MM deal this past offseason, Martinez posted his best offensive season since 2019. In 479 trips to the plate with the Dodgers, Martinez slashed a fantastic .271/.321/.572, good for a 135 wRC+ that ranked 16th among all hitters with 450 plate appearances this season.
That sort of offensive production would normally make extending Martinez a qualifying offer something of a no-brainer for Andrew Friedman and his front office; after all, both Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times suggest that multi-year offers could be on the table for Martinez in free agency, with Ardaya in particular suggesting that Martinez is likely to receive more than the approximate one-year, $20.5MM deal a QO would provide. That being said, the situation is more complicated than it might seem on the surface. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco spoke about on last week’s episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, the possibility of Martinez accepting the QO could complicate matters for LA.
After all, it’s no secret that the Dodgers are expected to pursue top free agent and two-way star Shohei Ohtani this offseason. After undergoing elbow surgery, Ohtani will be relegated to DH-exclusive duties in 2024. That means that if the club rosters both Martinez and Ohtani next year, the Dodgers would either have to play him in the outfield, where he’s played just 12 innings the past two seasons and last played regularly in 2017, or else utilize him as a $20.5MM bench bat, an exorbitant cost for even a high-payroll LA club. What’s more, there’s reason to believe Martinez could accept the offer. After all, the veteran slugger is entering his age-36 season in 2024 and missed time in August due to a nagging groin injury. Given his age and health issues this season, it’s at least conceivable that his market may not wind up being as robust as his fantastic offensive numbers would otherwise suggest.
Speaking of Ohtani, Harris notes that signing the winter’s No. 1 free agent will be a “top priority” for the Dodgers. Since the three-time All-Star will not take the mound next season, he cannot satisfy the team’s need for starting pitching in 2024. Still, the Dodgers seem like an excellent fit for perhaps the most singular talent in MLB history. According to Harris, the club is “cautiously optimistic” about its chances of landing the superstar, although he quickly adds that it’s “anyone’s guess” what factors Ohtani will value the most as he looks for his next contract; even members of the Dodgers front office are unsure what it will take to land the presumptive AL MVP. LA can offer a high salary and the chance to contend for a title, but Ohtani will have no shortage of suitors, and he can certainly afford to be choosy.
On the topic of starting pitching, Harris also mentions that the Dodgers are expected to target Corbin Burnes should the Brewers look to trade the former Cy Young winner. Not long ago, Burnes seemed like a probable trade candidate, given the sizeable raise he’s likely to earn in arbitration and his forthcoming free agency following the 2024 campaign. However, with the news that Brandon Woodruff is likely to miss most (if not all) of the upcoming season, the Brewers might be more hesitant to part with Burnes. Nevertheless, if the star right-hander is, in fact, on the trading block, the Dodgers could be a good match.
Turning back to position players, it comes as little surprise that there is mutual interest between the Dodgers and veteran outfielder Jason Heyward. About a month ago, Harris reported on the reciprocal admiration betwixt Heyward and his Dodgers teammates, and today he notes, “there is believed to be mutual interest” between the former All-Star and the team that helped spark his late-career turnaround. What is slightly more surprising is the fact that superstar Mookie Betts is expected to play a significant amount of second base again next year, potentially freeing up playing time for Heyward in the outfield.
Betts came up as a second baseman, but he became a full-time outfielder during his sophomore season in 2015. He has since won six Gold Gloves for his work in right field, compiling 148 Defensive Runs Saved and 56 Outs Above Average in ten seasons as an outfielder. The versatile athlete that he is, Betts was more than capable of filling in at second base (and shortstop) in 2023, despite not having played more than ten games a year in the infield since his rookie campaign. However, the advanced defensive metrics were mixed on his performance at second, and his powerful arm is undoubtedly a stronger asset in the outfield. While his flexibility is valuable, it’s hard to imagine his best position is anything but right field.
The Dodgers could still pursue some infield help this winter, thereby pushing Betts back into a full-time outfield role. That said, the free agent market for outfielders is significantly deeper, with Heyward just one of many options. Moreover, Betts has made it quite clear he’s comfortable playing second, and evidently, the Dodgers are happy with that arrangement, too. It might not be his best position, but it could be what’s best for the team in 2024.
Where’s the part about how mookie is endorsing Trevor Bauer
The Dodgers could go 162-0 and still lose in the playoffs.
“Dodgers seem like an excellent fit for perhaps the most singular talent in MLB history”.
Wouldn’t that apply to all teams?
If it were the other way ‘round, Ohtani being an excellent fit for a team. Every team would want him. Every team would be improved by adding him. Not every team is an excellent fit for Ohtani, though.
You think Oakland, Kansas City, Colorado would be excellent fits for Ohtani?
He’d be an excellent fit for the Athletics. Currently we’re a cryptocurrency scam applying for government COVID loans and we need a front man to make it all seem legit.
Whoa? This must be Sam Bankman Fried burner account?
Las Vegas might be a great choice for him though? A baseball team will thrive there? That expendable gambling income to pour into the team? Welcome to the New Vegas Yankees ooooooRah!
You would think so, but somehow the Angels managed to mess it up.
No. What he’s saying is teams like the Dodgers and Angels are on the WC. Have $$$ money to spend and other factors which a lot of other teams don’t have.
With almost half the teams making the playoffs, every team could contend during Ohtani’s next contract. Look where Texas and Arizona were in ’21. Plus, just adding Ohtani is likely to make a team somewhat bettter.
Ohtani is a lock to dodgers. The FA process will be the offseason show of baseball but it’s all a charade. It’s a done deal- he will be a dodger.
You heard it here first folks!
I don’t know, Big Whiffa, Steve Cohen does have some very deep pockets. I’m sure he’d rather be on the left coast, but money talks.
Hoof hearted – Still one of the greatest horse names ever ;o)
by excellent fit, they mean a team that has the payroll flexibility to pay him an exorbitant amount of money. There is roughly 3-5 teams that fit that. The dodgers, the mets, the yankees, and maybe 1-2 surprise teams. cleveland, tampa, miami, and numerous other teams do not have the capability of giving ohtani the 400+ milliion he’s getting.
Ohtani will resign with the Angels. You heard it here first.
I’ve heard that a l9t 9f times before now, Red
Is it resigning when you play out your contract?
Everyone knew Ohtani was going to hit the free agent market, you’re not telling anyone anything they didn’t already know.
The question is, where will Ohtani SIGN not where he is leaving. We all know he is leaving the Angels.
The ironic spelling of the word that means exactly the opposite depending on where you place the emphasis.
Resigning – it can be “re”-signing as in re upping or resigning as in walking out the door.
Just weird when dealing with it in print.
There is the proper spelling re-signing, which means coming back or resigning, which of course means quitting. The emphasis on type form doesn’t matter.
He already “resigned” (from) the Angels when he cleared out his locker and threw away his surprisingly significant personalized travel mug. You win.
I wouldn’t doubt seeing Ohtani following in Ichiro’s footsteps to SEA and playing the next decade in SEA, extending the M’s streak of being without a WS appearance another decade, and an Ohtani-less LAA becoming WS champs the year after he leaves — with Trout defeating the Phillies — and Bryce gets called a questionable 3rd strike call for last out by Angel Hernandez after the courts rule in his favor and make MLB assign him to the WS team.
The Rangers were 68 and 94 just one season ago. That is how fast a team’s fortunes can change. Ohtani wants to win with the Angels.
Wanting to doesn’t make it so. In reality can the Angels offer to build a contender around Ohtani while having over $370 million committed to Trout and Rendon til 2030? Granted Rendon is off the books after 2026 but he and Trout account for almost $80 million in payroll per year over the next 3 years and that doesn’t count the $50+ million per Ohtani may get. A team like the Giants that have no long term commitments may make more sense in actually being able to build around Ohtani as a centerpiece. The last thing the Angels need is another Albatross
@RSox & Redstitch
If, in another parallel universe, I happened to be players agent, I would be advising my players to avoid the Angels if at all possible.
Their problems have been well documented elsewhere, but Moreno seems to think buying two or three star players is a complete roster. He then eschews scouting, decent training, his ST site out of use for 3 years, any idea of development.
It’s a shame, I went to Anaheim for the 1st time in September and it’s still a good ball park, good food, good beer.
I’m thinking Ohtani wants to go to a team that is built, not to one that can be built around him. Angels just have an owner that can’t keep his hands out of it, and an inexperienced GM to build a team and a good farm.
I’m sure some team will throw big big bucks at him and will come to regret it.
I actually see him going to Seattle. Not LAD.
Agree, I actually think Seattle is one of the frontrunners to land him
The Rangers also hired a competent GM, have a solid farm system, an owner that doesnt appear to meddle in FO affairs, and don’t have a history of destroying talented pitching (unless we’re going back to David Clyde ). If Ohtani wants to win, he’s already out of Anaheim.
Not the Angels fortune. He gave them how many years and they proved it didn’t change.
This Dodger fan would like to see Betts at second. I have to think he’s more valuable there. The positional adjustment is 1 full win between the two positions. Hard to imagine his defense is a full run worse.
Then, there’s more OF’s available than second basemen,
Then they can offer Martinez the QO and still go after Ohtani. If Martinez accepts, they can slide him into the OF occasionally. But, also let him know that Ohtani is the goal and JD’s playing time will be limited – making him less likely to accept.
The only kink in the plan is Lux playing SS when he was questionable before the injury, and more questionable now.
Max at 3rd and Gavin at Short is not the answer. Have you watched ANY of the World Series?
and……… Ohtani doesn’t “fit” the Dodgers either. JD should take whatever the QO is and leave we’ll enough alone. He’s got at least one more decent season left… Ohtani would “fit” on a team like Seattle. Just sayin…
Rojas is also back at SS. My guess is that Lux may see SS/2B duties maybe even some 3B. Muncy could also potentially move back to 2B? Lots of different ways you can play it but the Dodgers value that flexibility. Muncy at least gives you an above average bat at 3B, gives some of that back on defense.
Max hit .212 this year. “an above average bat”? Yeah, if you’re using the Mendoza Line….
Are you stuck in the 1990s and hung up over batting average. This metric is called OPS. His OPS+ was 115 in 2023. That’s called above average given that 100 is average. He was 7th in OPS among all qualifying 3B. You probably think Kyle Schwarber is a terrible hitter.
Skruf
“Max hit .212 this year. “an above average bat”? Yeah, if you’re using the Mendoza Line….”
Some people understand baseball well enough to know that Home runs and walks have value
No way JD rejects a 1 year/$20M deal.
Bob – Think for a minute here. The whole reason JD signed a 1-year deal with the Dodgers was to re-establish his value with a big year and then get a multi-year deal after this season.
He accomplished what he set out to do, he had a big year and re-established his value. So why on earth would he accept just a 1-year deal when he could easily get at least a 2-year $35M deal? Especially with such a weak free agent market.
FPG
“So why on earth would he accept just a 1-year deal when he could easily get at least a 2-year $35M deal?”
Because he thinks he’ll make more over the two years by going year to year.
If the one year deal was for, say, $25 million and he was confident he could beat $10 million in year 2.
That is why he would accept a one-year deal
Fili – The only one year deal in play would be the QO which is a fixed amount of $20.5M
Why would he take that and risk either an injury plagued or just plain bad 2024 season? I can see him getting a 2-year $35M with an opt-out after next season, similar to what JT got.
If I were JDM I’d take that 2 year $35mm but not sure if he’ll get a contract that good. Maybe more like 2 year $28mm? Something where the QO could actually be a better deal.
I know JDM did very well in 2023, but three factors why he may not get that 2 year $35mm. 1. He doesn’t play the field at all. You could plug him in a corner OF position but you’d be really hindering your defense. 2. He’s injury prone. Lots of mini trips to the DL with the groin injury. I don’t think that goes away. Even worse if he has to play the field. 3. I think you could see some regression to the mean. He had a very nice bounce back season in 2023, but wouldn’t expect similar numbers in 2024.
Betwixt? Forsooth!
Is second base less of an injury risk than right field? That may be one reason Dodgers decide to play Mookie at second. Other than that, I think his skill set is best suited for right field.
Less wear and tear on the body.
I’d think there is more wear and tear at 2B. More diving plays there.
It could be driven by Mookie. He may be open to both positions and will do what’s best for team but perhaps he has voiced that he prefers 2B?
Less legwork I believe is the idea. Mookie is a total pro who will play wherever they put him and do it with a smile on his face. BTW, I bet he likes playing infield because it allows him to yack with other players more. As Vin might have said, Mookie would talk to a fencepost.
It makes it easier to fill the roster with platoon players (something they do) when your regulars are versatile to move around
They actually moved Bellinger to CF partly due to too much diving at 1B and messing up his shoulder. There should be more wear and tear in the infield. Also more responsibilities with cutoffs and different strategies. Bunts, run downs, covering bases, etc. Supposedly less stressful for bat first players to place them in corner OF positions to lessen the fielding burdens. That doesn’t apply to Mookie who is an all around player though.
Yes, OF never dives.
It’s called frequency in diving, Einstein. Over the course of a full season infielders will dive a lot more than an OF.
I’m hoping that maybe the Dodgers and Brewers can come together in a trade of Burnes, Adames for Lux and some major league ready prospects.
Dodgers surely need both those guys. Just their system is as weak as I’ve ever seen while Brewers system is loaded. Lux doesn’t even move the radar for those guys. So Bobby Miller, Busch, Frasso and De Paula ??
I think the brewers can get a better offer for both those guys from another team
Bobby MIller lol. His trade value alone is already more than Burnes.
He overachieved his rookie season; go look at his minor league numbers. Great candidate to unload at a peak value
You’re going to base that on one playoff appearance. He was not ready yet for elite playoff performance but he has a lot of ability. I wouldn’t sell Bobby Miller short. There is still an aspect of young thrower but as he continues to mature as a pitcher he’ll learn how to better use and command his pitches. He has a lot of value but I don’t think the Dodgers are trading him. Cheap young talent like that is what the Dodgers love.
1. J.D. Martinez might be worth more than $10M, but not by much. He’s purely a DH, despite his fairly lofty power numbers and RBI totals on a team where he got a ton of lineup protection, he only generated 1.9 WAR. Plenty of truly valuable and still purely DH’s have generated 2-3 times that WAR. and only been able to get around $13M-$16M a season. By today’s standards, with some inflation, that bumps up to $14.5-$17.5M.
I think the QO would be too expensive for what J.D. Martinez offers now. I’d give him 1 year/$19M or 2 years/$38M- basically his rate with the Red Sox. Basically if that Red Sox deal had been for 7 years/$133M instead of 5 years/$95M.
If he wants the money he “lost” on only making $10M, I guess I’d give him 2 years/$47M, but that’d be dumb.
He generated 1.9 WAR- that makes him worth about $16.25M or so. So I’d give him 1 year/$16.25M and see what happens. If he’s this good or better next year, he’ll get another 1 year deal for approximate value, right?
2. Shohei Ohtani…. he seems like such an enigma- how do you value a year in which he’ll be mostly recovering and not playing when it’s supposed to be year 1 of the longest, largest contract of his career, knowing he’ll be basically in recovery mode for at least 2 years and he’s only getting older…. 2 years/$60M ($15M, $45M) and then 4 years/$200M? or does someone just roll the dice and actually give him 10 years/$500M? Let’s be real. A lot of guys drop off around 32-34 years old. He’ll be 31 once he’s fully fully recovered from TJ, etc. To me that gives any team around 2-4 years of peak Ohtani and then after that he might have his moments but I can’t see him maintaining his levels for an additional 3+ years, let alone 5 to 8 more years…. So what team is willing to offer half a billion for him to potentially become the kind of player that turns into one of these albatrosses fans kind of remember is technically on a team but is getting paid top dollar to not play because they should be retired but they are collecting their salaries and the team doesn’t want to admit it’s over and they made a bad bet… cause there are a *lot* of those out there… players who were supposed to be generational talents anchoring a team for the better part of a decade…and then they just weren’t on the active roster… and them making a start, or pitching some innings, or getting some AB’s, is the Win. Productivity and value isn’t even a consideration at that point, just being physically present and active in an official game is the Win….and that could become Ohtani….
The reason every team should be willing to sign Ohtani to $500,000,000 is they will immediately get an entire country as a fan base
And how does that generate sufficient revenue to finance the $500 million? Baseball is a business not a fantasy league.
Tv ratings, merchandise, having him on the field will bring people to the ballpark more so than any other player in the league
The Cubs currently make about 100 million annually from the Marquee Network, how much more do you think they would make after they go into the Asian market with their network with Ohtani and Suzuki?
Case in point, since Ohtani has been in the league, viewership in the Japanese market is up over 400%. That leads to much higher ad revenue and wider tv markets. If teams are smart, you negotiate also that Ohtani wears team merch in his endorsement deals.
@drasco036 – I wonder how much of a share of the Asian market New Balance now has with Ohtani repping them.
You do realize LA won’t be the only team making offers, and its not LAD or go home? What do you do if they both say no?
i aint reading all of that.
How does this add up? You say he’s too expensive to get a QO but then you say that you’d give him a 2 yr $38mm deal, which by the way is way better than a QO. With a subpar season in 2024 what do you think he earns in 2025? A lot less than $18mm or so. If he’s getting a 2 year deal it’s going to be way less than $38mm.
Seems odd to offer JDM a QO and then tell him he’s not really wanted and only playing occasionally in the oF? To get a draft pick? To pay $20mm+ for an occasional OF? Neither scenario makes sense. Either you’re going after Ohtani or JDM. Can’t hedge this year. I think you need to pick. If JDM it doesn’t have to be a QO. Unless for sure you know you’re not going after Ohtani.
Teams seem to be smart enough to avoid giving up draft picks for DH who have QO. If he gets the QO he best take it.
Although if boras is his agent he likes knowing about the rules and costing his player millions by holding out and complaining about rules that have been in place for like a decade while stomping his feet and crying.
Boras has made his players far more money than he has list them, far more.
Yup, except the ones who he chooses to cost money by advising them to sit out because he doesn’t like the rules.
J. D. has to be one of the 5 worst defensive outfielders of the 2000’s. I’ve witnessed him out there. Every fly ball, no matter how routine, has the potential to be a triple.
It won’t be like that next season. Due to his age mlb approved a huvaround for him in the outfield. So he can just wheel around out there to get to the ball quicker. Turning triples back into doubles.
Biggest concern is how late the games go off on west coast as senior citizens go to bed sooo early. Bet he gets pulled after 3 innings a lot so he can nap.
Can’t wait to give Heyward a multi year deal just so he can hit 7 homers and bat .240 next season.
Surely the Dodgers are also going to go after Soto as well, since they go after every other player.
Ship Muncy to Milwaukee.
if we are trading muncy, we should see if we can swap him for arenado. Send Busch, Muncy, and one of either stone, grove, or knack, plus a couple lottery picks.
Cartaya, Muncy, Stone and one or two lottery picks for Arenado and Edman.
They can write the same article every fall: the Dodgers are in pursuit of [insert blue chip free agent here] and are also looking at [insert two more blu chip free agents here].
Wonder if the dodgers regret letting Seager walk
How did they “let him walk”? They offered a $250 million extension and he turned it down
Sorry princess, “didn’t match” rangers offer. Happy now?
Seager is a Boras client. Boras convinces his clients to wait for top dollar. Pretty sure Seager was also looking at cost of living & taxes in California vs. Texas. An increasing issue for west coast teams, imo. That being said, would like to see the Dodgers sign Blake Snell. Don’t think he’s overly concerned about being on the west coast but, he’s a Boras client and Dodgers would have to be top bidder!
Betts played second in the minors but came up in the majors as a center fielder.
The Dodgers have the most $$$ to offer Ohtani with their big local TV deal if that is all he cares about. If not, and I suspect that is the case, then those other factors will tell the tale.
If I were him, I’d let them all wine and dine me and take my time.
Dodgers fans, we are going to sign Harper. Dodgers offer a contract knowing, he will turn down their low ball figure. Then it was, we are going to sign Cole, again Dodgers, offered him a low ball contract knowing he would turn it down. Dodgers fans, we are going to sign, Anthony Rendón, be glad you didn’t, again offered a low ball contract, knowing he would turn it down. Dodgers fans, no way Corry Seager goes anywhere. Again offered a low ball contract. They will do the same with, Ohtani. He will most likely be on the Giants next season.
Friedman didn’t have much interest in those guys at least at market rates. Obviously some very great baseball players. But to appease the fan base you always have to pretend that you’re in it for all top free agents. You know how damn demanding the Dodger fans can be. They think the Dodgers should sign every top free agent. Being a fiscally responsible team is not their concern. Pay these guys whatever they want. Hehe.
Sorry Dodgers YOUR not signing Ohtani… that money is going to be needed to bring back my man Brasier!!! Savior of your pen.. hell if it’s not for all your ex Redsox players you’d be lucky to win 78 games!!!
Keep Mookie in Rightfield and give Michael Busch a solid chance at 2B. Dude can hit.
I do believe that Busch will have an opportunity to win a job in spring training but the guy has done absolutely nothing at the MLB level so you have to temper your expectations. Hitting at AA and AAA is completely different than MLB. I can see Busch potentially winning the 2B job though. That will force Mookie back to RF and best case scenario (assuming he performs in 2024) as the Dodgers can save some $ and spend it elsewhere including SP.
Betwixt? Come on. Stop trying to be cute.
My god this scumbag organization has to be in the mix to buy every single superstar it can, don’t they? Ohtani, JD, Burnes, and of course that loser Heyward is going to go back there because he’d be worthless anywhere else but can just sort of reap the rewards of being in LA’s lineup.