Perhaps one of the most interesting dilemmas facing the Dodgers as they turn toward the coming offseason is the pending free agency of veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. After signing with the club on a one-year, $10MM deal this past offseason, Martinez posted his best offensive season since 2019. In 479 trips to the plate with the Dodgers, Martinez slashed a fantastic .271/.321/.572, good for a 135 wRC+ that ranked 16th among all hitters with 450 plate appearances this season.
That sort of offensive production would normally make extending Martinez a qualifying offer something of a no-brainer for Andrew Friedman and his front office; after all, both Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times suggest that multi-year offers could be on the table for Martinez in free agency, with Ardaya in particular suggesting that Martinez is likely to receive more than the approximate one-year, $20.5MM deal a QO would provide. That being said, the situation is more complicated than it might seem on the surface. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco spoke about on last week’s episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, the possibility of Martinez accepting the QO could complicate matters for LA.
After all, it’s no secret that the Dodgers are expected to pursue top free agent and two-way star Shohei Ohtani this offseason. After undergoing elbow surgery, Ohtani will be relegated to DH-exclusive duties in 2024. That means that if the club rosters both Martinez and Ohtani next year, the Dodgers would either have to play him in the outfield, where he’s played just 12 innings the past two seasons and last played regularly in 2017, or else utilize him as a $20.5MM bench bat, an exorbitant cost for even a high-payroll LA club. What’s more, there’s reason to believe Martinez could accept the offer. After all, the veteran slugger is entering his age-36 season in 2024 and missed time in August due to a nagging groin injury. Given his age and health issues this season, it’s at least conceivable that his market may not wind up being as robust as his fantastic offensive numbers would otherwise suggest.
Speaking of Ohtani, Harris notes that signing the winter’s No. 1 free agent will be a “top priority” for the Dodgers. Since the three-time All-Star will not take the mound next season, he cannot satisfy the team’s need for starting pitching in 2024. Still, the Dodgers seem like an excellent fit for perhaps the most singular talent in MLB history. According to Harris, the club is “cautiously optimistic” about its chances of landing the superstar, although he quickly adds that it’s “anyone’s guess” what factors Ohtani will value the most as he looks for his next contract; even members of the Dodgers front office are unsure what it will take to land the presumptive AL MVP. LA can offer a high salary and the chance to contend for a title, but Ohtani will have no shortage of suitors, and he can certainly afford to be choosy.
On the topic of starting pitching, Harris also mentions that the Dodgers are expected to target Corbin Burnes should the Brewers look to trade the former Cy Young winner. Not long ago, Burnes seemed like a probable trade candidate, given the sizeable raise he’s likely to earn in arbitration and his forthcoming free agency following the 2024 campaign. However, with the news that Brandon Woodruff is likely to miss most (if not all) of the upcoming season, the Brewers might be more hesitant to part with Burnes. Nevertheless, if the star right-hander is, in fact, on the trading block, the Dodgers could be a good match.
Turning back to position players, it comes as little surprise that there is mutual interest between the Dodgers and veteran outfielder Jason Heyward. About a month ago, Harris reported on the reciprocal admiration betwixt Heyward and his Dodgers teammates, and today he notes, “there is believed to be mutual interest” between the former All-Star and the team that helped spark his late-career turnaround. What is slightly more surprising is the fact that superstar Mookie Betts is expected to play a significant amount of second base again next year, potentially freeing up playing time for Heyward in the outfield.
Betts came up as a second baseman, but he became a full-time outfielder during his sophomore season in 2015. He has since won six Gold Gloves for his work in right field, compiling 148 Defensive Runs Saved and 56 Outs Above Average in ten seasons as an outfielder. The versatile athlete that he is, Betts was more than capable of filling in at second base (and shortstop) in 2023, despite not having played more than ten games a year in the infield since his rookie campaign. However, the advanced defensive metrics were mixed on his performance at second, and his powerful arm is undoubtedly a stronger asset in the outfield. While his flexibility is valuable, it’s hard to imagine his best position is anything but right field.
The Dodgers could still pursue some infield help this winter, thereby pushing Betts back into a full-time outfield role. That said, the free agent market for outfielders is significantly deeper, with Heyward just one of many options. Moreover, Betts has made it quite clear he’s comfortable playing second, and evidently, the Dodgers are happy with that arrangement, too. It might not be his best position, but it could be what’s best for the team in 2024.
Where’s the part about how mookie is endorsing Trevor Bauer
In a science fiction novel, where it belongs.
Does Trevor Bauer save the universe from communists?
No, but I understand he can bend steel with his mind.
No, there’s no endorsement of Bauer, because Dodgers fans crucified Bauer even though he has never been charged with anything, and the Dodgers fans on this board have been made to look especially ridiculous, given the fact his accuser has been shown to be an out and out liar.
Dodgers are more accepting of having the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence as special guests at Dodger stadium.
Here is one such post asking Bauer to “take responsibility for his actions”.
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“BlueSkies_LA8 months ago
His failure to find a team here has less to do with pissing off fans than the fact that he hasn’t taken responsibility for his actions. Not only has he refused to acknowledge that he violated the policy (even after the finding was made twice), he continues to sue those who supplied the evidence that he did. No MLB team is going to touch that with a barge pole. Maybe he’ll spend some time in Japan getting his head straight, but honestly he doesn’t seem like the getting his head straight kind of guy.
———————————————————————-
Laughable.
This guy’s agent and PR people sure spend a lot of time hanging out here.
Just because he wasn’t charged doesn’t mean he’s not guilty. However, what if someone out of the blue, who you didn’t know and had never met, accused you of, shall we say, improper conduct, because you were worth millions of dollars and they wanted a large cut of it. Would anyone believe in your innocence or would society turn it’s back on you and automatically assume you were guilty without any proof? A scary premise. Bauer might very well be guilty but it was never proven. Still, his reputation is ruined one way or another.
Actually, avenger65, it means the prosecution knew there was so little evidence, that even in the face of immense public popularity, it would have been a train wreck to charge Bauer because the charges either would have been dismissed or he would have easily won a not guilty verdict. Make no mistake, the prosecutor, MLB and the Dodgers all desperately wanted charges. The prosecutor for fame, the Dodgers to get out of the guaranteed contract and MLB for a public popularity campaign.
In civil court, Judge Gould-Saltman, ruled Lindsey Hill had consensual encounters with Bauer and the language Gould-Saltman used was the judge equivalent of ‘Hill is an absolute psycho’ when she denied a motion for order of protection (restraining order). In civil cases, all it takes is 51% of evidence in favor of the motion.
In the lawsuit settlement, which resulted in Bauer paying absolutely nothing to Hill, Bauer was also allowed to speak publicly about the case. What came out from Bauer (one-sided, certainly) were Hills text messages sent to her friends where she outright laid her plan out to shake Bauer down for money.
Those of us who live in SoCal also realize LA DA Gascon likes to charge innocent people, but often won’t touch serious criminals. His favorite line that he blurts out as often as he can is”we’re not seeking the death penalty in this case.
Martras – Good stuff, thank you. How did Bauer get ahold of texts sent to her friends?
Avenger – Great post! One other thing … throughout history, false accusers have avoided any type of jail time for their lies.
Look up Crystal Mangum and Tawana Brawley. One entered a career as a nurse, the other profited from a book until she murdered her boyfriend. So there’s really nothing to deter these women from lying, they have nothing to lose.
@Fever Pitch Guy, they were part of the discovery process for the restraining order and then her civil suit after that. Of course, the criminal investigation was sandwiched in the middle.
Bauer would have been advised strongly by his attorneys, if not ordered by the court, not to disclose those texts to the public until the case was settled.
Wow – someone goes around splicing and annotating arcane quotes like some butterfly collector? Creepy
Dumpster Diver
Imagine quoting a post in full on the topic that relates to Bauer. It’s not “spliced” at all. You need to be able to understand definitions of words before you use them.
You must be very weird & creepy indeed, must be all the rubbish you’ve been involved with. Get some tests completed to determine if you’ve been exposed to brain altering chemicals, because you appear to be addled.
He was found to have violated his terms of employment, twice, and handed the longest suspension in the policy’s history. Twice. And as I accurately predicted, no team has or will touch him for the precise reasons already stated. Thanks for reminding me about being right, but I knew that already. None of the penalties he was handed had even the slightest bit to do with any fan’s opinion.
Suggesting otherwise is pathetic, and at least a little weird.
Imagine the level of obnoxiousness and arrogance involved to suggest that you were “right”. Indeed, even in the face of overwhelming facts, and the fact that the accuser has shown to be a liar and not received a red cent, they still continue to assert that they were” right”. At a word, pathetic is correct. How deluded people can be, on show right here.
You have no facts at all, let alone overwhelming facts. It is obnoxious and arrogant to say you do, when you so clearly don’t have clue one. What you (and others) so consistently and stubbornly fail to comprehend is the suspension had nothing whatsoever to do with the law. Zero. Nada. Zilch. It is based on a jointly adopted MLB/MLBPA policy. This is what he was found to have violated, and handed the longest suspension ever by the commissioner AND an independent arbitrator, after investigations lasting months. And you claim to have the real “facts”? Based on what? That’s just totally nuts. Of course you don’t.
Deluded hardly even covers your complete denial of this obvious reality.
@BlueSkies_LA
I’d nitpick with you on the fans opinions not having anything to do with it. MLB suspended Bauer specifically because of fans’ opinion. Bauer’s conduct damaged the league’s reputation with fans or prospective fans (basically the general American populace)
If fans didn’t care, MLBPA wouldn’t have actually had grounds to punish Bauer.
When in the world will you come to reality and admit through your obnoxiousness and sheer LA arrogance that you are patently wrong.
Accusations are not facts, they are accusations. You claim that he was “found to have violated MLB/MLBPA policy”, all along it was based on accusations.
Do remind everyone how much Trevor Bauer will have to pay his accuser, not a red cent.
Here you are talking about people being deluded, you’re the most deluded poster on here.
“Bauer’s lawyers Jon Fetterolf and Shawn Holley released a statement on Monday that said Hill has “been unsuccessful in her pursuit of a false narrative for personal gain by all of the institutions our country relies on for criminal and civil liability” and said the judge who rejected Hill’s restraining order request in August 2021 saw the photos and reports.”
You must live your life through delusion.
The statement implies that Bauer did not cause the bruises seen in Hill’s photos.
“Based on her own video account, we now all know what Lindsey Hill looked like when she left Mr. Bauer’s house the morning of May 16 and why he expressed concern and confusion at photos sent to him in the days that followed. Only Ms. Hill knows what happened after she left his house,” according to the statement. The attorneys declined to expand.
Bauer first drew attention to Hill’s Snapchat video in September 2022. It shows Hill in his bed, smirking at the camera and panning to Bauer as he sleeps next to her.
In his Oct. 2 video, Bauer said Hill had “no marks on her face” and said the video “paints a pretty clear picture of what actually happened the evening of May 15 and why the video was originally concealed from us.”
“It is inconvenient for Lindsey Hill that Judge Gould-Saltman publicly referenced numerous inconsistencies in her claims and found Mr. Bauer did not engage in any non-consensual activity,” the statement says. “It is even more inconvenient that she took a smiling Snapchat video of herself in bed next to Mr. Bauer the morning after she claimed she was brutally assaulted and desperate to get away from him with no visible injuries, and that we were able to obtain it. Mr. Bauer’s claims have been consistent from the onset and reaffirmed by the pretext call.”
You are just clueless about what people will do to get money by nefarious means or activities including blackmail/extortion.. Whilst on that topic, why don’t you look up Liverpool football player Luis Diaz.
There is only one person that is in denial, that is you, because you have zero credibility or integrity on this matter. As I’ve pointed out previously, Bauer would have a good case to sue Manfred and MLB, whether he does or not is his choice. He may not want to spend the time and have the stress of going the litigation route, when he probably just wants to play baseball in USA again, he doesn’t want to be caught up in courtrooms.
The opinion of fans about any given player has nothing whatsoever to do with this. The policy was jointly adopted by MLB and the PA. Between them they decided on what is a good look for baseball, and they made it part of the employment contract through the CBA. If you want to know what the policy says, it’s all available and easily read and understood. Almost nobody is interested in doing this, but it doesn’t stop them from commenting as if they know something anyway.
So it wasn’t the MLBPA that “punished” Bauer or anyone else who’s been suspended under the policy. It’s a procedure defined in detail the CBA and administered by the commissioner, as are most other disciplinary cases. Players are also entitled to a hearing before an outside arbitrator selected jointly by both parties, which happened in this case. The arbitrator ruled against him too.
We don’t know what evidence was presented in these hearings, nor are we entitled to know. All we know for certain is the results. We also know that players who acknowledge their bad judgement often get their MLB careers back, something this player has completely refused to do.
You are completely hopeless.
The guy did nothing wrong, get over it. All the fans, the owners, the commenters on this site all vilified him for his actions before you had any proof of what he actually did. Now it’s time to admit wrong and move on. Also Betts did just come out and state he has no issue with Bauer. Let’s start talking about the crime of him being falsely accused, and stop talking bad on someone who did nothing illegal
The guy was found to have violated his employment terms. These terms have zero to do with the law. So get over that, already. Repeating the same tired untruths is getting very, very old.
Betts said only that he likes him personally and thinks he can pitch but also acknowledged that who plays in MLB isn’t up to him. Big deal.
Guys have done worse then Bauer and didn’t get suspended 2 seasons, amd if you don’t think other guys are choking out random girls that’s naive. It’s a non factor to me
@Justajaysfan – uhhhhh, I wouldn’t say he did “nothing wrong” in the eyes of the majority of people, and obviously MLB.
Bauer also conducted himself in an especially reckless manner following the accusations. Public reputation is critically important to MLB and Bauer’s conduct dragged MLB into the middle of a very public sexual assault allegation. Not a place anybody, any company, but especially such a publicly followed company like MLB wants to be.
While I do like Bauer taking a stand for what he believed in, it came with enormous consequences for him, even if he won. I suspect he’ll sleep well regarding his overall decisions as he ages.
That’s the problem, people are soft these days. Article after article, youtube video after video, it’s lame, and if what he did was so bad then mlb needs to look at what other players do, the issue is it went public, so what he had rough se_ with a girl so what. And with the climate today of believe the accuser before proof this is what happen, entire career wasted over some money hungry trash who planned the whole thing and asked for it, came back for seconds lmao come on
@BuJoBI – People have always been this way, but it’s more distinctly polarized now.
In the 1950s or 1960s MLB, had Bauer been accused of being a communist by somebody close to him, he’d be in largely the same situation.
It’s an entertainment industry and people who work in it need to protect their reputation. Bauer didn’t. That’s his responsibility and he’s reaping a catastrophic fall out because of it. The world isn’t fair and I’d be gobsmacked if it got to anything reasonably close to fair in the next 50 years.
The Dodgers could go 162-0 and still lose in the playoffs.
Tell us how you REALLY feel about the Dodgers.
Any team could, it’s a crapshoot everyone knows that. The gms are aware of it being a total crapshoot as well.
Or the Dodgers just aren’t built to win when it matters… I think they’ve downgraded from the teams of 2017 and 18.
Fever pitch guy- the people who think it’s a crapshoot are the intelligent fans and every single gm in the game.
iver – The only people who think it’s a crapshoot are the same people overly obsessed with analytics who also think there’s no such thing as clutch.
Regular season is all about depth, but depth doesn’t matter nearly as much in the postseason. You don’t need a good #5 or even #4 starting pitcher in the postseason. You don’t need to give starting position players days off in the postseason, except sometimes your catcher.
You think it’s just some weird coincidence that a great player like Mookie is on a 3-for-42 streak starting in 2021? Or maybe, just maybe, he’s got a mental issue that is causing him to choke in the postseason.
Blaming a pattern of postseason failures on luck is a cop-out.
FPG
Once I flipped a coin and got heads 10,times in a row
Was I clutch?
Was the coin clutch?
People who insist that because a player was successful (or unsuccesful) in a few dozen plate appearances spread out over multiple seasons they know something about their ability to deal with pressure are just revealing their lack of understanding.
Lack of understanding of statistics and probabilities
Lack of understanding of psychology
Lack of understanding of their own limitations.
Maybe Mookie does have a mental issue causing him to choke. That’s possible, it’s also possible that he’s just had 42 bad plate appearances spread out over multiple seasons,
Insisting you know that someone can’t handle the pressure is as much of a cop-out as saying it’s luck.
Postseason is all about depth. Regular season you can add via trade, waiver wire, promote from farm, most of the year. Postseason rosters are set and you cannot add without injury in between a series. If you don’t have the roster depth for a particular series, you’re screwed. For ex, TEX had their record-AAV SP (Scherzer) only go 3 IP, only to have former SP1 Jon Gray come in and give them 3 scoreless IP to bridge to the ‘pen. Usually the teams that get incredible performances from utility knives or bottom parts of their orders (Alek Thomas, etc.) come out victorious b/c they represent depth.
Sure, reg season you need to have some depth, but you can afford to lose some games in a 162-game season if you don’t have it, but you can’t afford that in a 3, 5 or 7-game series.
Or it’s none of the above. Something called small sample size. Anyone can slump; it just so happens he’s slumping in the post. Given enough of a sample size, most players will eventually end up right around their career numbers.
rtc
“Or it’s none of the above. Something called small sample size. Anyone can slump;”
Small sample size is luck, I would say
A slump is something different. It is a 3rd option, yes.
I’m not even suggesting to know Mookies’ mental state.
But assuming players are the equivalent of coins and probability/analytics rules the day denies the fundamental fact that baseball players are human beings.
Some people thrive under pressure some don’t – some players can defy the back of their baseball cards for a series or playoff run – some can’t meet thee back of their baseball cards – the number crunchers claim small sample size as their defense – the truth is some players are better than others when all the chips are on the table.
This can be observed in many areas of the human experience and not simply baseball
People can surprise to the upside and downside in any matter of situations
pfpp
“Some people thrive under pressure some don’t ”
Sure
The problem though is still sample size
A player who thrives under pressure is still subject to variation
Take it down to the PA level.
If a player makes an out, are they unclutch?
How about 2 outs?
It takes hundreds of PA’s to get an idea how good a player is.
Playoffs are small samples
fili – To your first point, it’s a horrible analogy. A coin flip is truly pure luck. It doesn’t involve skill or mental strength of any kind. You have zero control of how the coin lands. Obviously baseball players have plenty of control when it comes to hitting, pitching, fielding, etc.
I find it interesting you bring up psychology, which is exactly what impacts a player’s performance in big situations … both positively and negatively. David Ortiz is one of the greatest hitters in postseason history for a reason, “luck” has nothing to do with it.
Glad you agree that Mookie might have a mental issue in the postseason. He likely wouldn’t admit it, but the enormous pressure of that 3-for-42 streak has to be negatively affecting him.
You know why? Because he’s not a machine, he’s not even a cyborg …. he’s human, and it’s quite common for failure to lead to additional pressure which then leads to additional failure, like a snowball rolling down a hill.
@Fever, there are actually analytical metrics for clutch hitting, just saying.
As far as the Dodgers, they just like the Rays had lost way too much pitching. The fact they even made the playoffs is kind of impressive considering. Regardless I agree the Dodgers are not the same Dodgers of 2017 or 2018. They did not make as many additions as they have in recent years. I’m sure though they ll be back at it soon enough.
coop – What do you consider a “not small” sample size?
Is at least 450 PA’s sufficient enough to not be “small sample size”?
Jorge Posada was a .848 OPS hitter in the regular season, and only a .745 OPS hitter in 492 PA’s in the postseason.
David Justice was a .878 OPS hitter in the regular season, and only a .717 OPS hitter in 471 PA’s in the postseason..
No small sample sizes there.
pete – Thank you for a great post. You are so right, it’s sad that some people here view humans as inanimate objects like a coin.
Not only do some players put up much better numbers in the postseason, keep in mind they are doing it against competition that is clearly better than what they faced in the regular season.
Schilling is another postseason stud, 2.23 ERA and 0.968 WHIP in 133 innings. While in the regular season he had a 3.46 ERA and 1.137 WHIP.
fili – That’s quite interesting.
So 300-734 PA’s in the postseason you consider “small sample size”, but around 250 PA’s is enough to be deemed an “All-Star” every year.
Where’s the logic?
Tiger – I know about the clutch metrics, if you mean RISP and Close & Late etc.
I’m the one that’s been saying for decades, ignore the RBI and focus on RISP.
FPG
“No small sample sizes there.”
wOBA needs well over 700 PA for a 95% confidence level
library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/
Always great when people who do not understand a thing at all state their options as if they were certain
FPG
“fili – That’s quite interesting.
So 300-734 PA’s in the postseason you consider “small sample size”, but around 250 PA’s is enough to be deemed an “All-Star” every year.
Where’s the logic?”
The logic is with the All-Stars not with sample sizes. Trying to equate the two might be the worst logic
library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/
fil – You’re being too hard on yourself, I’m sure you understand SOME things.
You’re an analytics fan, I’m a baseball fan.
502 PA’s qualifies for the BA, SLG, OBP, and OPS titles.
You want to believe anything less than 700 PA’s is a “small sample size” and therefore is not in any way indicative of the player’s performance?
Even when it’s split up over multiple years, which means injuries/slumps/opponents are less of a factor?
Then keep on stating that as if you are certain.
I’m in FPGs camp here, why should a player’s healthy slash line suddenly fall off a cliff during post season play?
When Yogi Berra said that 90% of baseball is mental the other half physical, he wasn’t kidding. Pressure to perform is real.
If I had to guess, the FPG post sounds like it’s coming from someone who has played the game,
And those “some” people are?
CYJ
“I’m in FPGs camp here, why should a player’s healthy slash line suddenly fall off a cliff during post season play?”
Why doesn’t a .300 hitter get 3 hits every ten plate appearances?
Why do they sometimes go 6 for 10 and sometimes 0 for 10?
For the same reason
@filihok; hmm, point taken. Cheers!
Fili – Ten is definitely a SSS. Can you at least compromise by agreeing 40 PA’s is not, we are talking 8-9 games here.
And BTW you’re missing the main point. It’s not about performing really great or really bad in the postseason, it’s about performing much better or much worse in the postseason than in the regular season.
Fili – Just 250 regular season PA’s is worthy of All-Star selection and potential bonus money, but 400+ postseason PA’s is not worthy of being called clutch? Are you for real?
FPG
“Fili – Ten is definitely a SSS. Can you at least compromise by agreeing 40 PA’s is not”
No
That’s not at all how it works.
That’s like saying that 10*10 isn’t 1, so can we agree that it’s 10. We can’t agree that’s it’s 10. Because it’s 100
40 PA’s is a very small sample when it comes to OPS. OPS needs hundreds of PA’s
FPG
“Just 250 regular season PA’s is worthy of All-Star selection and potential bonus money, but 400+ postseason PA’s is not worthy of being called clutch? Are you for real?”
Yes
A team could decide 1 PA is enough for for bonus money
That is 100% unrelated to what constitutes a decent sample
F)G
“fili – To your first point, it’s a horrible analogy. A coin flip is truly pure luck. It doesn’t involve skill or mental strength of any kind. You have zero control of how the coin lands. Obviously baseball players have plenty of control when it comes to hitting, pitching, fielding, etc”
Your understanding of statistics is horrible.
A coin has a 50% chance of landing on heads
A specific player has, for example, a 30% chance of getting a bit.
If you flip a coin, you don’t just get s tail, then a head, then a tail, then a head over and over again
Sometimes you get a bunch of, say, heads in a row
Similarly, a batter doesn’t always get 3 hits every 10 at bats. Sometimes they go 6 for 10. Sometimes they go 0 for 10.
Sometimes they go 20 for 50. Sometimes they go 10 for 50.
Both are examples of variation around a mean.
If s coin can be clutch, so can a baseball player.
And for the same reason.
I’m not nearly arrogant enough to think I know what’s going on inside the head of a professional athlete I’ve never met. That’s you
I’m saying that I don’t know
And there’s s perfectly viable explanation that doesn’t involve mind reading
Fever getting out classed here. Somebody stop the damn match!
filihok – You DO understand sizes can, and often are, viewed differently by different people … right? Depending on context, what’s “small” to one person could be “medium” or “large” to another. But you’re obviously outnumbered here, as 43 consecutive PA’s wouldn’t be talked about so much and brought up so often during the MLB broadcasts if it wasn’t perceived by most to be a long streak.
fili – A team wouldn’t agree to dish out a large bonus based on 250 regular season PA’s if it deemed that number of PA’s to be a SSS. You are outnumbered here again.
fili – Again, baseball players aren’t inanimate objects. Past results doesn’t guarantee future results.
The average BA this year is .248 but that doesn’t mean every player will hit around that number, some will have much higher averages and some much lower.
Funny thing is, you are also wrong about a coin having a 50% chance of landing on heads. Most coins are made with the heads side weighing more, which means it is more likely to land on that side, leaving the other side up more often.
And THAT is precisely why stats are misused so often, because so many factors are not taken into consideration.
FPG
“You DO understand sizes can, and often are, viewed differently by different people … right? Depending on context, what’s “small” to one person could be “medium” or “large” to another. But you’re obviously outnumbered here, as 43 consecutive PA’s wouldn’t be talked about so much and brought up so often during the MLB broadcasts if it wasn’t perceived by most to be a long streak.”
Total lack of understanding on your part of what sample size is
It’s not an opinion
It’s based on mathematics. One cannot just say a sample is big or small,
Oof
FPG
Per your last comment you’ve proven your ignorance on the topic
FPG
“The average BA this year is .248 but that doesn’t mean every player will hit around that number, some will have much higher averages and some much lower.”
Let’s go with this, since maybe there’s some understanding in here
If you pick one baseball player at random, what is the likelihood that their batting average will be .248?
Small
If you pick 10 players at random, what is the likelihood that their average batting average will be .248?
Still small, but bigger than for one player
If you pick 100 players at random, what is the likelihood that their average batting average will be .248?
Higher than 1 or 10 players
Those are samples
]if you pick one player, and their average is .222, you can’t just say that the league batting average must be .222. Your sample was too small.
If you pick 10 players and their average was .261, you can’t say the league average was .261.
And you can’t just say that picking 10 players is enough because you think it is.
That’s just not at all how it works
You’re wrong about the coin flip. But you’ve been wrong so many times over in this exchanged I’ve lost count.
Whichever side is face up has an edge by the way it’s not 50% they just did a study on it.
Bure – First you say I’m wrong about the coin flip, then you repeat exactly what I wrote?
Well alrighty then.
I’m just laughing that people are actually arguing over the weight of a “heads” side of a coin flip. When the argument gets there, it’s just laughable.
FPG
“First you say I’m wrong about the coin flip, then you repeat exactly what I wrote?’
That’s not exactly what you said
As Iver said, it’s nearly to impossible to keep track of how many times you’ve been wrong during this discussion.
But rather than arguing about which side of a coin is a fraction of a percent more likely to be on top after a coin is flipped, let’s focus on the bigger issue
You cannot just decide that a sample is big enough to be meaningful. That is completely wrong and illustrates a complete lack of understanding for your part of how statistics work
Back to coins for a second,
You can’t just flip a coin once, get heads, and say,”I think one flip is enough for me to decide that this coin is weighted towards heads’
You, I hope, see how ridiculous that sounds.
Well, it’s exactly how ridiculous you sound when you say that a couple dozen PA’s is a big enough sample to determine someone’s playoff skill
It’s absurd,
That’s not what you wrote. You wrote the coin is weighted more on one side
ib
“That’s not what you wrote”
Thinks one side weighing more and one side starting up are exactly the same
Thinks you can compromise on what constitutes a sufficient sample.
It’s almost like this person isn’t good at thinking logically
Duh? They’ve still got Kershaw on the roster? That’s as given as Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes going to the AFC championship game
Some people are really great at being born loosers? Like the entire 1990’s Buffalo Bill’s Roster? Every single player? Born looser 4 straight years
The 2009-2014 Detriot Tigers and Texas Rangers
Maybe they should add a little fiber to their diet. Tends to make things less loose.
What is laughable about that exactly?
An independent arbitrator found him to be deserving of the harshest punishment in league history for violation of domestic violence policy. Bauer has never taken any responsibility or shown any remorse. Again, he was found guilty, by MLB and an independent third party, who both thought his actions warranted a severe punishment. And he continues to sue his accusers (plural; I noticed you mistakenly noted that he had a singular accuser).
Well, you see, the arbitrator couldn’t rewind time and give him back all the games he’d already missed. Strange concept, I know
An independent arbitrator? The Dodgers were looking for a way not to pay him. These independent arbitrators only have the teams and league best interest in mind. There were never any chargers filed against him. They were money grubbing. Women, looking to get rich.
Do you not know what independent means?
But they couldve given him back pay! Strange concept, I know.
RE: af4l
“They were money grubbing. Women, looking to get rich.”
The incel has chimed in
You might want to look at the accuser’s texts lol. She basically said that exact thing about herself
FF
“You might want to look at the accuser’s texts lol. She basically said that exact thing about herself”
No. She did not
Raw – You mean independent like the commissioner who doesn’t favor the owners?
FF69
Muted
“Dodgers seem like an excellent fit for perhaps the most singular talent in MLB history”.
Wouldn’t that apply to all teams?
If it were the other way ‘round, Ohtani being an excellent fit for a team. Every team would want him. Every team would be improved by adding him. Not every team is an excellent fit for Ohtani, though.
You think Oakland, Kansas City, Colorado would be excellent fits for Ohtani?
He’d be an excellent fit for the Athletics. Currently we’re a cryptocurrency scam applying for government COVID loans and we need a front man to make it all seem legit.
Whoa? This must be Sam Bankman Fried burner account?
Las Vegas might be a great choice for him though? A baseball team will thrive there? That expendable gambling income to pour into the team? Welcome to the New Vegas Yankees ooooooRah!
You would think so, but somehow the Angels managed to mess it up.
No. What he’s saying is teams like the Dodgers and Angels are on the WC. Have $$$ money to spend and other factors which a lot of other teams don’t have.
With almost half the teams making the playoffs, every team could contend during Ohtani’s next contract. Look where Texas and Arizona were in ’21. Plus, just adding Ohtani is likely to make a team somewhat bettter.
Ohtani is a lock to dodgers. The FA process will be the offseason show of baseball but it’s all a charade. It’s a done deal- he will be a dodger.
You heard it here first folks!
I don’t know, Big Whiffa, Steve Cohen does have some very deep pockets. I’m sure he’d rather be on the left coast, but money talks.
Hoof hearted – Still one of the greatest horse names ever ;o)
by excellent fit, they mean a team that has the payroll flexibility to pay him an exorbitant amount of money. There is roughly 3-5 teams that fit that. The dodgers, the mets, the yankees, and maybe 1-2 surprise teams. cleveland, tampa, miami, and numerous other teams do not have the capability of giving ohtani the 400+ milliion he’s getting.
Ohtani will resign with the Angels. You heard it here first.
I’ve heard that a l9t 9f times before now, Red
Is it resigning when you play out your contract?
Everyone knew Ohtani was going to hit the free agent market, you’re not telling anyone anything they didn’t already know.
The question is, where will Ohtani SIGN not where he is leaving. We all know he is leaving the Angels.
The ironic spelling of the word that means exactly the opposite depending on where you place the emphasis.
Resigning – it can be “re”-signing as in re upping or resigning as in walking out the door.
Just weird when dealing with it in print.
There is the proper spelling re-signing, which means coming back or resigning, which of course means quitting. The emphasis on type form doesn’t matter.
He already “resigned” (from) the Angels when he cleared out his locker and threw away his surprisingly significant personalized travel mug. You win.
I wouldn’t doubt seeing Ohtani following in Ichiro’s footsteps to SEA and playing the next decade in SEA, extending the M’s streak of being without a WS appearance another decade, and an Ohtani-less LAA becoming WS champs the year after he leaves — with Trout defeating the Phillies — and Bryce gets called a questionable 3rd strike call for last out by Angel Hernandez after the courts rule in his favor and make MLB assign him to the WS team.
The Rangers were 68 and 94 just one season ago. That is how fast a team’s fortunes can change. Ohtani wants to win with the Angels.
Wanting to doesn’t make it so. In reality can the Angels offer to build a contender around Ohtani while having over $370 million committed to Trout and Rendon til 2030? Granted Rendon is off the books after 2026 but he and Trout account for almost $80 million in payroll per year over the next 3 years and that doesn’t count the $50+ million per Ohtani may get. A team like the Giants that have no long term commitments may make more sense in actually being able to build around Ohtani as a centerpiece. The last thing the Angels need is another Albatross
@RSox & Redstitch
If, in another parallel universe, I happened to be players agent, I would be advising my players to avoid the Angels if at all possible.
Their problems have been well documented elsewhere, but Moreno seems to think buying two or three star players is a complete roster. He then eschews scouting, decent training, his ST site out of use for 3 years, any idea of development.
It’s a shame, I went to Anaheim for the 1st time in September and it’s still a good ball park, good food, good beer.
I’m thinking Ohtani wants to go to a team that is built, not to one that can be built around him. Angels just have an owner that can’t keep his hands out of it, and an inexperienced GM to build a team and a good farm.
I’m sure some team will throw big big bucks at him and will come to regret it.
I actually see him going to Seattle. Not LAD.
Agree, I actually think Seattle is one of the frontrunners to land him
The Rangers also hired a competent GM, have a solid farm system, an owner that doesnt appear to meddle in FO affairs, and don’t have a history of destroying talented pitching (unless we’re going back to David Clyde ). If Ohtani wants to win, he’s already out of Anaheim.
Not the Angels fortune. He gave them how many years and they proved it didn’t change.
This Dodger fan would like to see Betts at second. I have to think he’s more valuable there. The positional adjustment is 1 full win between the two positions. Hard to imagine his defense is a full run worse.
Then, there’s more OF’s available than second basemen,
Then they can offer Martinez the QO and still go after Ohtani. If Martinez accepts, they can slide him into the OF occasionally. But, also let him know that Ohtani is the goal and JD’s playing time will be limited – making him less likely to accept.
The only kink in the plan is Lux playing SS when he was questionable before the injury, and more questionable now.
Max at 3rd and Gavin at Short is not the answer. Have you watched ANY of the World Series?
and……… Ohtani doesn’t “fit” the Dodgers either. JD should take whatever the QO is and leave we’ll enough alone. He’s got at least one more decent season left… Ohtani would “fit” on a team like Seattle. Just sayin…
Rojas is also back at SS. My guess is that Lux may see SS/2B duties maybe even some 3B. Muncy could also potentially move back to 2B? Lots of different ways you can play it but the Dodgers value that flexibility. Muncy at least gives you an above average bat at 3B, gives some of that back on defense.
Max hit .212 this year. “an above average bat”? Yeah, if you’re using the Mendoza Line….
Are you stuck in the 1990s and hung up over batting average. This metric is called OPS. His OPS+ was 115 in 2023. That’s called above average given that 100 is average. He was 7th in OPS among all qualifying 3B. You probably think Kyle Schwarber is a terrible hitter.
Skruf
“Max hit .212 this year. “an above average bat”? Yeah, if you’re using the Mendoza Line….”
Some people understand baseball well enough to know that Home runs and walks have value
No way JD rejects a 1 year/$20M deal.
Bob – Think for a minute here. The whole reason JD signed a 1-year deal with the Dodgers was to re-establish his value with a big year and then get a multi-year deal after this season.
He accomplished what he set out to do, he had a big year and re-established his value. So why on earth would he accept just a 1-year deal when he could easily get at least a 2-year $35M deal? Especially with such a weak free agent market.
FPG
“So why on earth would he accept just a 1-year deal when he could easily get at least a 2-year $35M deal?”
Because he thinks he’ll make more over the two years by going year to year.
If the one year deal was for, say, $25 million and he was confident he could beat $10 million in year 2.
That is why he would accept a one-year deal
Fili – The only one year deal in play would be the QO which is a fixed amount of $20.5M
Why would he take that and risk either an injury plagued or just plain bad 2024 season? I can see him getting a 2-year $35M with an opt-out after next season, similar to what JT got.
If I were JDM I’d take that 2 year $35mm but not sure if he’ll get a contract that good. Maybe more like 2 year $28mm? Something where the QO could actually be a better deal.
I know JDM did very well in 2023, but three factors why he may not get that 2 year $35mm. 1. He doesn’t play the field at all. You could plug him in a corner OF position but you’d be really hindering your defense. 2. He’s injury prone. Lots of mini trips to the DL with the groin injury. I don’t think that goes away. Even worse if he has to play the field. 3. I think you could see some regression to the mean. He had a very nice bounce back season in 2023, but wouldn’t expect similar numbers in 2024.
Betwixt? Forsooth!
Is second base less of an injury risk than right field? That may be one reason Dodgers decide to play Mookie at second. Other than that, I think his skill set is best suited for right field.
Less wear and tear on the body.
I’d think there is more wear and tear at 2B. More diving plays there.
It could be driven by Mookie. He may be open to both positions and will do what’s best for team but perhaps he has voiced that he prefers 2B?
Less legwork I believe is the idea. Mookie is a total pro who will play wherever they put him and do it with a smile on his face. BTW, I bet he likes playing infield because it allows him to yack with other players more. As Vin might have said, Mookie would talk to a fencepost.
It makes it easier to fill the roster with platoon players (something they do) when your regulars are versatile to move around
They actually moved Bellinger to CF partly due to too much diving at 1B and messing up his shoulder. There should be more wear and tear in the infield. Also more responsibilities with cutoffs and different strategies. Bunts, run downs, covering bases, etc. Supposedly less stressful for bat first players to place them in corner OF positions to lessen the fielding burdens. That doesn’t apply to Mookie who is an all around player though.
Yes, OF never dives.
It’s called frequency in diving, Einstein. Over the course of a full season infielders will dive a lot more than an OF.
I’m hoping that maybe the Dodgers and Brewers can come together in a trade of Burnes, Adames for Lux and some major league ready prospects.
Dodgers surely need both those guys. Just their system is as weak as I’ve ever seen while Brewers system is loaded. Lux doesn’t even move the radar for those guys. So Bobby Miller, Busch, Frasso and De Paula ??
I think the brewers can get a better offer for both those guys from another team
Bobby MIller lol. His trade value alone is already more than Burnes.
He overachieved his rookie season; go look at his minor league numbers. Great candidate to unload at a peak value
You’re going to base that on one playoff appearance. He was not ready yet for elite playoff performance but he has a lot of ability. I wouldn’t sell Bobby Miller short. There is still an aspect of young thrower but as he continues to mature as a pitcher he’ll learn how to better use and command his pitches. He has a lot of value but I don’t think the Dodgers are trading him. Cheap young talent like that is what the Dodgers love.
1. J.D. Martinez might be worth more than $10M, but not by much. He’s purely a DH, despite his fairly lofty power numbers and RBI totals on a team where he got a ton of lineup protection, he only generated 1.9 WAR. Plenty of truly valuable and still purely DH’s have generated 2-3 times that WAR. and only been able to get around $13M-$16M a season. By today’s standards, with some inflation, that bumps up to $14.5-$17.5M.
I think the QO would be too expensive for what J.D. Martinez offers now. I’d give him 1 year/$19M or 2 years/$38M- basically his rate with the Red Sox. Basically if that Red Sox deal had been for 7 years/$133M instead of 5 years/$95M.
If he wants the money he “lost” on only making $10M, I guess I’d give him 2 years/$47M, but that’d be dumb.
He generated 1.9 WAR- that makes him worth about $16.25M or so. So I’d give him 1 year/$16.25M and see what happens. If he’s this good or better next year, he’ll get another 1 year deal for approximate value, right?
2. Shohei Ohtani…. he seems like such an enigma- how do you value a year in which he’ll be mostly recovering and not playing when it’s supposed to be year 1 of the longest, largest contract of his career, knowing he’ll be basically in recovery mode for at least 2 years and he’s only getting older…. 2 years/$60M ($15M, $45M) and then 4 years/$200M? or does someone just roll the dice and actually give him 10 years/$500M? Let’s be real. A lot of guys drop off around 32-34 years old. He’ll be 31 once he’s fully fully recovered from TJ, etc. To me that gives any team around 2-4 years of peak Ohtani and then after that he might have his moments but I can’t see him maintaining his levels for an additional 3+ years, let alone 5 to 8 more years…. So what team is willing to offer half a billion for him to potentially become the kind of player that turns into one of these albatrosses fans kind of remember is technically on a team but is getting paid top dollar to not play because they should be retired but they are collecting their salaries and the team doesn’t want to admit it’s over and they made a bad bet… cause there are a *lot* of those out there… players who were supposed to be generational talents anchoring a team for the better part of a decade…and then they just weren’t on the active roster… and them making a start, or pitching some innings, or getting some AB’s, is the Win. Productivity and value isn’t even a consideration at that point, just being physically present and active in an official game is the Win….and that could become Ohtani….
The reason every team should be willing to sign Ohtani to $500,000,000 is they will immediately get an entire country as a fan base
And how does that generate sufficient revenue to finance the $500 million? Baseball is a business not a fantasy league.
Tv ratings, merchandise, having him on the field will bring people to the ballpark more so than any other player in the league
The Cubs currently make about 100 million annually from the Marquee Network, how much more do you think they would make after they go into the Asian market with their network with Ohtani and Suzuki?
Case in point, since Ohtani has been in the league, viewership in the Japanese market is up over 400%. That leads to much higher ad revenue and wider tv markets. If teams are smart, you negotiate also that Ohtani wears team merch in his endorsement deals.
@drasco036 – I wonder how much of a share of the Asian market New Balance now has with Ohtani repping them.
You do realize LA won’t be the only team making offers, and its not LAD or go home? What do you do if they both say no?
i aint reading all of that.
How does this add up? You say he’s too expensive to get a QO but then you say that you’d give him a 2 yr $38mm deal, which by the way is way better than a QO. With a subpar season in 2024 what do you think he earns in 2025? A lot less than $18mm or so. If he’s getting a 2 year deal it’s going to be way less than $38mm.
Seems odd to offer JDM a QO and then tell him he’s not really wanted and only playing occasionally in the oF? To get a draft pick? To pay $20mm+ for an occasional OF? Neither scenario makes sense. Either you’re going after Ohtani or JDM. Can’t hedge this year. I think you need to pick. If JDM it doesn’t have to be a QO. Unless for sure you know you’re not going after Ohtani.
Teams seem to be smart enough to avoid giving up draft picks for DH who have QO. If he gets the QO he best take it.
Although if boras is his agent he likes knowing about the rules and costing his player millions by holding out and complaining about rules that have been in place for like a decade while stomping his feet and crying.
Boras has made his players far more money than he has list them, far more.
Yup, except the ones who he chooses to cost money by advising them to sit out because he doesn’t like the rules.
J. D. has to be one of the 5 worst defensive outfielders of the 2000’s. I’ve witnessed him out there. Every fly ball, no matter how routine, has the potential to be a triple.
It won’t be like that next season. Due to his age mlb approved a huvaround for him in the outfield. So he can just wheel around out there to get to the ball quicker. Turning triples back into doubles.
Biggest concern is how late the games go off on west coast as senior citizens go to bed sooo early. Bet he gets pulled after 3 innings a lot so he can nap.
Can’t wait to give Heyward a multi year deal just so he can hit 7 homers and bat .240 next season.
Surely the Dodgers are also going to go after Soto as well, since they go after every other player.
Ship Muncy to Milwaukee.
if we are trading muncy, we should see if we can swap him for arenado. Send Busch, Muncy, and one of either stone, grove, or knack, plus a couple lottery picks.
Cartaya, Muncy, Stone and one or two lottery picks for Arenado and Edman.
They can write the same article every fall: the Dodgers are in pursuit of [insert blue chip free agent here] and are also looking at [insert two more blu chip free agents here].
Wonder if the dodgers regret letting Seager walk
How did they “let him walk”? They offered a $250 million extension and he turned it down
Sorry princess, “didn’t match” rangers offer. Happy now?
Seager is a Boras client. Boras convinces his clients to wait for top dollar. Pretty sure Seager was also looking at cost of living & taxes in California vs. Texas. An increasing issue for west coast teams, imo. That being said, would like to see the Dodgers sign Blake Snell. Don’t think he’s overly concerned about being on the west coast but, he’s a Boras client and Dodgers would have to be top bidder!
Betts played second in the minors but came up in the majors as a center fielder.
The Dodgers have the most $$$ to offer Ohtani with their big local TV deal if that is all he cares about. If not, and I suspect that is the case, then those other factors will tell the tale.
If I were him, I’d let them all wine and dine me and take my time.
Dodgers fans, we are going to sign Harper. Dodgers offer a contract knowing, he will turn down their low ball figure. Then it was, we are going to sign Cole, again Dodgers, offered him a low ball contract knowing he would turn it down. Dodgers fans, we are going to sign, Anthony Rendón, be glad you didn’t, again offered a low ball contract, knowing he would turn it down. Dodgers fans, no way Corry Seager goes anywhere. Again offered a low ball contract. They will do the same with, Ohtani. He will most likely be on the Giants next season.
Friedman didn’t have much interest in those guys at least at market rates. Obviously some very great baseball players. But to appease the fan base you always have to pretend that you’re in it for all top free agents. You know how damn demanding the Dodger fans can be. They think the Dodgers should sign every top free agent. Being a fiscally responsible team is not their concern. Pay these guys whatever they want. Hehe.
Sorry Dodgers YOUR not signing Ohtani… that money is going to be needed to bring back my man Brasier!!! Savior of your pen.. hell if it’s not for all your ex Redsox players you’d be lucky to win 78 games!!!
Keep Mookie in Rightfield and give Michael Busch a solid chance at 2B. Dude can hit.
I do believe that Busch will have an opportunity to win a job in spring training but the guy has done absolutely nothing at the MLB level so you have to temper your expectations. Hitting at AA and AAA is completely different than MLB. I can see Busch potentially winning the 2B job though. That will force Mookie back to RF and best case scenario (assuming he performs in 2024) as the Dodgers can save some $ and spend it elsewhere including SP.
Betwixt? Come on. Stop trying to be cute.
My god this scumbag organization has to be in the mix to buy every single superstar it can, don’t they? Ohtani, JD, Burnes, and of course that loser Heyward is going to go back there because he’d be worthless anywhere else but can just sort of reap the rewards of being in LA’s lineup.