One of the Cubs’ first decisions of the upcoming offseason is whether to exercise an option on the team’s longest-tenured player. Chicago holds a $16MM option on Kyle Hendricks that comes with a $1.5MM buyout.
At the very least, the team is likely to retain the right-hander on that net $14.5MM decision. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the front office and Hendricks’ representatives at Wasserman are discussing a potential multi-year pact to keep him in Chicago beyond next season. It isn’t clear how likely they are to come to an agreement.
That the Cubs are open to retaining Hendricks into 2025 isn’t especially surprising. He put together a strong ’23 campaign, turning in a 3.74 ERA through 137 innings. It was a nice return to form after he’d allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in both 2021 and ’22. The sinkerballer kept the ball on the ground at a 46.3% clip that was his highest rate since 2020. Hendricks also cut his walk rate a couple percentage points relative to the previous two seasons while inducing more soft contact.
It’s not a return to peak, when he was routinely logging 30+ starts with an ERA hovering around 3.00. He halted what looked like a possible decline, though, perhaps in part due to improved health. Hendricks had pitched through shoulder discomfort for part of the 2022 season. He was eventually diagnosed with a capsular tear and shut down that August. Hendricks never required surgery but was forced out of game action until late May.
Upon his return, he stayed healthy and took the ball every fifth day. The steady mid-rotation production was welcome for a team that lost Marcus Stroman to the injured list around the trade deadline and received middling seasons from Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. Aside from Cy Young candidate Justin Steele, Hendricks was arguably the team’s best starter.
The Dartmouth product turns 34 in December. An extension going into effect beyond next season would therefore begin with his age-35 campaign. That’s the age at which the Cardinals’ spring extension for Miles Mikolas takes effect. St. Louis guaranteed Mikolas $40MM over two seasons one year in advance.
Hendricks and Mikolas are broadly similar pitchers. They’re innings-eating righties whose profiles are built on elite control. As with Hendricks, Mikolas had dealt with a serious injury before posting a rebound year — in his case, soreness in a surgically repaired flexor tendon in his forearm. While Mikolas throws quite a bit harder, that has never translated to an even average whiff rate. The Cardinals hurler’s $20MM average annual value might be a touch high. Mikolas was coming off a 3.29 ERA through 202 1/3 innings in 2022, a half-run lower than Hendricks’ 2023 figure. It’s nevertheless a potential target for Hendricks’ camp.
José Quintana — a former teammate of both Hendricks and Mikolas — signed a two-year, $26MM free agent deal covering his age 34-35 seasons. Quintana had turned in a 2.93 ERA over 165 2/3 innings in his platform season after a dismal 6.43 ERA showing in 2021. Even without the benefit of open market bidding, Hendricks figures to top that sum based on Quintana’s erratic performances from 2019-21.
The Cubs have just over $100MM on the books for the 2025 season. That’s mostly tied up in position players, with only Taillon on a guaranteed deal beyond next year. Steele remains eligible for arbitration through 2027, while Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad are in their pre-arbitration seasons. Stroman has a $21MM player option for next year that looks like a borderline call; he’d be a free agent after 2024 if he opts in. Smyly is virtually certain to exercise an $8.5MM player option for next season that’d also guarantee a $2.5MM buyout on a 2025 mutual provision.
Cubs are not going to give Hendricks an extension that would raise his AAV so the Mikolas comp is moot. I could see the Cubs targeting the 2/26, retains his 16.5 million this up coming year and only paying 9.5 in 25.
First as a life long Chicago resident you learn one thing very fast
If Bruce Levine has his name next to the storyline you can bet that Chicago Cubs are feeding him the story.
Great story for a slow sport day In Chicago IL.
Not worth it. The Cubs can move Assad into the rotation and they have some kids coming. They can get filler for a LOT cheaper. The time has come to let Hendricks go.
Cubs need to fill 4 spots in the rotation and have an open competition for the 5th. Right now they have Steele and Taillon with Assad, Smyly, Wicks maybe Wesneski as a fifth starter so they way I see it, they need two more starters.
Need to fill 4 spots?
Steele
Wicks
Assad
Tallion
Stroman(after he opts in)
Hendricks (if his option is picked up)
Smyly (if his option is picked up)
Then they have Wesneski, Brown and Horton coming within the next 2 years. And they’re linked to Yoshinobu Yamamoto which I think they need to go hard and do what it takes to get him. But they need to re-sign Belli as well.
Sorry, I mean they need to fill 4 slots with proven players and right now they just have 2 of those slots filled with Steele and Taillon.
Only the fifth slot should be filled with an unknown like Wicks, Assad, Horton, Brown etc.
Smyly is a hindrance. Stroman may or may not opt in but should be traded if he does. Depending on if Hendricks extends or not, he might be looked at as a trade candidate as well.
Anyone who thinks the Cubs will be fine paying Stroman, Smyly and Hendricks 47 million dollars next year needs to have their head examined and taught finances.
I don’t think going young is a bad thing. Especially when you look at what is happening right now with Arizona. They’re throwing their young players in there and made the WS. How exactly do you get to be PROVEN, If you never get to play? Sometimes you just have to toss them out of the nest and see if they fly. But you can’t say they’re not proven if you never give them a chance. That is ambiguous at best. You earn your chance in the Minors. You can’t say Killian is a failure after 10 Major league innings. C’mon
This was a major problem with David Ross. The Cubs called up several rookies but they say on the bench for 2 weeks before their first PA. (Alexander Canario) when he finally got a start he got an rbi double and a grand slam. He was then benched the next week. David Ross” reasoning was “I am going to play the guys who got us here’ that’s fine but when they’re struggling you gotta give them a few days rest. Play the kids. PCA was called.up only had 12 AB In 3 weeks. He’s never gonna get his feet wet riding the pine. That’s how someone loses their confidence.
And the Cubs are letting Canario play in Dominican Winter League where he trashed his ankle and shoulder. They really are stupid.
For anyone thinking the cubs should not do this remember, the opening day rotation this year was Steele, Stroman, Taillon, Smyly, and Wesneski. Down the stretch the rotation was mostly Steele, Hendricks, Assad, Wicks, and Taillion, with Taillon being pretty ineffective.
I sincerely hope the cubs go after a big time starter like Yamamoto, but even with him you’re going to need 8-9 starters. Right now the cubs have Steele, Assad, Wicks, Taillon, Wesnwtand Smyly. I expect Smyly will pitch out of the bullpen, and they may want Assad there as well. Wicks has very little big league time and Taillon is coming off a season with a 4.84 ERA, and Wesneski was even worse. There is also the possibility that Stroman accepts his player option. they really do need Hendricks back
They only have Smyly if they pick up his option. Not sure how much it is. They only have Stro if he doesn’t opt out. I fully expect him to opt in.
No. Smyly’s deal is guaranteed for 2024. It’s mutual in 2025.
spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/drew-smyly-10664/
Me personally, I would forgo an extension on Hendricks in favor of picking up his option and then turn my full attention to Yamamoto. If the Cubs fail to sign Yamamoto, then revisit an extension with Hendricks.
One had to assume Ben Brown is looking like a guy who can join the team at some point next season, Horton, depending on how aggressive you want to be could be next year but solid assumption in 2025.
I feel fairly confident in the fifth starter slot with Wicks, Assad, Wesneski, Smyly (if he isn’t traded), Brown and Thompson as a dark horse. If that doesn’t work out, then you can look outside the organization at trade candidates since fifth starters typically cost little in terms of prospects.
That means you have to fill two slots in the rotation, Steele and Taillon are the two guys penciled in and the fifth being “open competition”. Teams would be dumb to have an open competition for two slots (and the Cubs would be equally dumb having the fifth slot filled by a free agent).
Taillon was solid in the second half of the season. I suspect he will be more mid-rotation starter next year than back of the rotation starter like he was this go round. Smyly I never liked as a signing and wish the Cubs would move on from him. If the Cubs want to be serious playoff contenders, they need a front line starter and a playoff starter, Hendricks can be the playoff starter which leaves a TOR starter as their priority.
Kyle pitched well enough to warrant to bring him back.
He is fine as a number four or five starter but shouldn’t be counted on as the staff ace.
The Cubs have some promising young arms that with the correct coaching could become very good, but dear Gawd fire Ross please!
Cubs’ fans are forgetting Stroman has a player option for next year. Odds are that Stroman does not opt of out due to his second half.
My biggest nightmares are coming true. Throw in another NTC there Jed and I’ll toss my junk in a Cuisinart and hit Puree.
Horton isn’t going to be ready next year. he’s been babied so far and rightfully so. He pitched 5 innings for the first 2 times in his Cub career in his last 2 starts in the Playoffs. He needs to be slowly built up to 100 pitches, Unless they want to use him as a reliever. Brown needs a little more seasoning on his command yet. Jed is talking about signing a Japanese LH reliever when he has 2 Littles, Horn and Hughes to sift through. Yammamoto is the only FA he should seriously be looking to sign. If they don’t think Slaughter or McGeary can play 1B maybe Hoskins. If they’re going to get bullpen guys they should go big and trade for a closer, Because there really isn’t one in FA. Last year was cool, But Jed will do the wrong thing I guess and jump the rebuild again. I think it really is time for a new direction. I think the Cubs need to seriously overpay Breslow and give him the job before this all gets ruined.Mervis needs to play his way in or out of the picture and Morel needs to learn how to play 3B exclusively. It’s pretty simple, Yet Jed insists on making it hard.
Your opinion on Horton isn’t accurate. He hasn’t been “babied”, the Cubs have handled all their starting pitching prospects the same way, tossing around 70 pitches/4-5 innings while in the minors. They don’t worry about “building up to 100 pitches”. The 100 pitch threshold typically is built up at the ML level.
Morel certainly needs to learn how to play a corner infield spot. He has the athleticism to play third base but his arm is wild!
As for the pen, I’m fine with Hoyer doing what he’s been doing, looking for some re-treads while staying out of the upper tier reliever. We simply don’t have the capital to spend on a reliever right now. They need to develop guys for high leverage roles.
As I said last off-season, the Cubs have a high likelihood of taking a step backwards this year and my stance is even firmer since the Cubbies really didn’t have any prospects emerge as everyday players.
The best thing the Cubs can honestly do if they want to compete next season is go into luxury tax territory and if they need to, trade guys to get under at the trade deadline. Frankly, I would trade Smyly and Stroman if he picks up his player option. Stroman is a fine pitcher and a value at 21 million on a one year deal but the Cubs have too many holes to fill to pay him 21 million.
I, like most, would be in on Yamamoto but if I can’t get a deal done, I’m looking at value. Trevor Bauer and Urias (although I don’t know about his situation) are two guys with Ace potential that can be had at a bargain. If I’m the Cubs, I have to do my due diligence on these guys. If the Cubs are not/can not bring Bellinger back, then Hoskins, Martinez or Turner have to be considered.
Lastly, the Cubs cannot get drawn into the bullpen drama and spend on a closer/set up man. The Cubs have to develop their own high leverage guys and continue to try to find value on rebound candidates. Relievers, like fifth starters, are not expensive in terms of prospects. Let another team pay that contract for 2/3 the season and then grab a guy with a wildcard prospect (the Cubs have plenty).
***bonus points for the Cubs if they can trade for a young, controllable middle of the rotation starter.
I agree with most of that. Since it looks like Hendricks is coming back (Rats), Now you’re looking at Steele, Taillon, Hendricks, Wicks and Smyly as #5 to start out. Assad and Wesneski as long men. I’m with you that if Stroman opts in he should be dealt. Young is the way to go here, Now you’re looking at dealing Smyly by the deadline and replacing him with someone from the farm. I’d love Yammamoto also but I feel like that would be winning the lottery. Unlike you, I don’t feel like going younger is as you put it ” Taking a step back”. They need a closer, And a good young one. They are much easier to get in a trade than a controllable young starter. Alzolay is a nice piece but I don’t see how he can be counted on for a whole season. Putting all of your eggs in that basket would be a HUGE mistake IMO. I don’t know of any Organization that is rolling in young controllable starters that they would trade one. Bauer and Urias carry way too much baggage to even think about. Alonso and Bellinger are nice to talk about but are also lottery tickets at this point. I’m not willing to give up what the Mets are going to ask for him and Belli will get paid.
After this year, If they go young then when all the Hoyer stupid money is off the books, Then MAYBE Alonso is a FA and go hog wild if Mervis is a flop, But you’ve gotta find out first. Hoskins , Turner and Martinez would be like plan C for me. But all in all, Yeah that works Drascoo.
I’m not saying the Cubs should rely solely on Alzolay, I think they have some electric arms in the farm that need to be developed and trusted. Little being an obvious guy, Franklin is a guy who seems destined for relief, Hughes will be interesting as will Heuer if he is tendered a contract. Arias another guy and Brown I think could be looked at as a high leverage reliever at some point next season if the rotation manages to stay solid.
I threw up in my mouth when I saw Smyly as a fifth starter. He’s a swing man in my opinion and needs to be traded.
We disagree on Mervis, I don’t think he’s a mlb player. I’m not a scout by any means I’m just reading the tea leaves.
Urias, I don’t know what he did. Bauer, I don’t care. I know too many women who are into that to think TB is some kind of monster. She also had that texts smiling, laying next to him bragging about how she was about to get paid. I would have zero issues what so ever having him in blue.
I really don’t think Alonso or Bellinger are feasible. The money is going to be too high (for either) as well as the prospect cost for one year of Alonso. I figured Bellinger would be more in Nimmos range, which if so the Cubs should jump all over with an opt out if he desires but 30 million AAV across 8-10 years? No thanks. Then again, what he wants and what he gets are two different things so we shall see. Who pegged Arietta going to the Phillies?
Give me your sales pitch on how you get somebody to trade something for Smyly at 10 million? Without giving talent away. It’s much easier at the deadline after you’ve eaten half of that already. He’s going to be here at the start of next year at least. Throw up or not.
I image to move Smyly we would have to do a prospect for prospect swap, probably someone closer to being MLB ready for a guy much farther away which sometimes works out.
With Smyly, the issue is the 10 million tied up. If you move Smyly at the deadline, it only frees up 3 million dollars to spend and at that point you are raising the seller flag anyway so it won’t matter.
The Cubs should have heeded my suggestion before and move Mancini and a prospect for Bell. Bell of course went off for the Marlins but the bigger advantage would have been not having Mancini’s contract on the books this year.
On a side note, I just read Canario is going to play in the Dominican Winter league again. That’s pretty dumb when you look at what happened last year.
I don’t love it but I don’t have an issue either. Year he got hurt last year but he also missed most of this year so a little extra time playing more advanced competition isn’t horrible
I would love to see them trade for Hunter Harvey from the Nationals.