Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger figures to be perhaps the top positional free agent this side of Shohei Ohtani during the coming offseason, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma discussed his upcoming free agency with various scouts this morning. Bellinger’s 2023 campaign saw him slash a strong .307/.356/.525, pairing 26 home runs and a minuscule 15.6% strikeout rate with quality defense both in center field and at first base as well as 20 stolen bases. The bounce back campaign comes on the heels of what had been a brutal pair of seasons for Bellinger; the 2019 NL MVP managed a line of just .193/.256/.355 in 900 trips to the plate in 2021 and 2022, production that left him 31% worse than league average by measure of wRC+.
Bellinger’s struggles led the Dodgers to non-tender him this past offseason, leading him to sign with the Cubs for the 2023 campaign. As brutal as those struggles were, Sharma relays that the scouts he spoke to were unconcerned about Bellinger regressing to the below-average form he showed the past two seasons. While Sharma notes that the scouts suggested that Bellinger’s performance this year likely included some good fortune, casting doubt on his ability to replicate the 134 wRC+ campaign he had this season, he still figures to be an above-average contributor over the next few years, with one scout suggesting a 115-120 wRC+ is a realistic expectation for Bellinger in 2024 and beyond.
What’s more, Sharma relays that the Cubs expect Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, to be patient in their pursuit of the best contract available this winter. Sharma suggests that the Cubs are “preparing for [Boras] to take Bellinger’s negotiations deep into the offseason” as they maintain interest in resigning him, with the negotiations expected to last into the new year barring “an outlandish deal.” Chicago’s pursuit of Bellinger figures to be a key piece of the club’s offseason on the heels of a 2023 season that saw the Cubs post a surprisingly competitive 83-79 record, finishing just one game out of an NL Wild Card spot. That success came in large part thanks to Bellinger, who was the strongest offensive contributor to the club in 2023. Though top center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is waiting in the wings to take over up the middle, that would likely represent a significant drop in offensive output for the Cubs in 2024.
More from around MLB’s Central divisons…
- Brewers manager Craig Counsell, who is set to become a free agent on November 1, is currently meeting with the Guardians in Cleveland to discuss the club’s managerial opening (as reported by Zack Meisel and Will Sammon of The Athletic). Though the sides ultimately coming together on a deal is considered to be something of a long-shot, the Guardians are accustomed to spending more on their manager than the typical small-market club, as recently-retired Cleveland skipper Terry Francona was reportedly the highest-paid manager in baseball last season. Counsell, 53, is among the most well-regarded managers in the game and figures to be highly sought after during his free agency, with the Mets known to have interest in his services in addition to the Guardians and Brewers. Per SNY’s Andy Martino, Counsell’s meeting with the Guardians today marks his first official interview this offseason.
- The Tigers found a major success story on the waiver wire back during Spring Training in left-hander Tyler Holton, who pitched to a sterling 2.11 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 85 innings of work for Detroit this season. As discussed by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Holton stands out as a prime example of the benefits of president of baseball operations Scott Harris’s frequent use of the waiver wire; as Petzold notes, the Tigers have made 17 waiver claims since Harris took the reins of Detroit’s front office in September 2022. In addition to the savvy waiver claim, Petzold notes that Detroit’s pitching infrastructure helped Holton develop a slider early in the 2023 campaign that proved to be perhaps his most effective pitch. Hitter batted just .135 against the slider this year with a minuscule .153 wOBA, per Statcast.
Bellringer will have his pick amongst a few choice landing spots and it will be interesting to see what develops. Given the great year in Chicago, I can see him staying if they pony up. Might be the best place to play when they’re winning due to the number of day games played.
The scouts in the Athletics article point to Bellinger’s mechanics and mental approach for his past struggles. He shortened his swing on two-strikes to make better contact which led to his avg exit velocity being down while cutting down on his K rate. That’s encouraging for him. I think he’ll get better than a Kris Bryant guaranteed deal possibly with opt-outs since Boras likes those.
Bellinger would have signed with anyone for one season so he could prove to the big clubs he still has it. After that, he said he wanted to play for a contender. I don’t know if he realizes it, but he did play for a contender this season. I get the feeling though that the third largest city in the country
isn’t what he had in mind. I think he’s looking for something like the Braves, both NY teams, the Padres or, maybe even the LAD. It will be interesting to see where he ends up. If he does leave, he won’t be hitting 26 HRs like he did in that bandbox on the north side.
Bellinger Home/Away HR in 2023:
14/12
Wrigley has a HR park factor of 106, meaning it is 6% above average. Of the teams you mentioned, Dodgers (122), Yankees (116), and Braves (111) all have higher HR park factors.
Wrigley is not a bandbox. If the wind is blowing out, HR are easier. When its blowing in they are almost impossible.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-f…
I would agree with you but you missed some key facts;
Wrigley is notoriously difficult for left handed power hitters due to the wind generally blowing in from right field.
Wrigley, the bandbox, has the deepest wells in baseball, just the shortest power alleys
Bellinger missed 32 games, many due to injury which caused him to not homer in May or June.
I would say the odds are more in favor of Bellinger hitting at least 26 home runs.
Band box? The wind blows in at Wrigley more than it blows out. There are many more parks that are more home run friendly and conducive to a left handed bat
As a Cubs fan, Dewey, I am almost certain that the Cubs will not re-sign Belli. They would love to have him back, but two things stand in the way of a reunion. First, Hoyer’s reluctance to go long-term on a contact (yes, I know they went 7 years for Swanson, but Belli is going to want 10 years, IMO). Second, as the article says, Boras is willing to wait out the market well into the new year if necessary. Hoyer can’t afford to take the chance of waiting and then falling short, as by then, most of the FA’s and trade scenarios may be off the board.
My complain about the Cubs is not that they don’t spend, it’s that they don’t spend wisely (regardless of Hoyer saying that they do).
I disagree with the notion that it’s better to have 2 guys making 37 million than paying one guy 35. I disagree that you spend money on the fifth starter slot. I disagree you have a fourth starter signed to a multi-year deal.
I think you spend money on Aces/TOR starters and impact bats. Then you build around them. “Nice” players are pretty easy to find and develop in your farm system. Ian Happ’s production isn’t that hard to replicate via the farm. Drew Smyly’s production isn’t hard to find in free agency for about half his salary or his salary with a much higher upside. Nico Hoerner, elite contact skills, defense and speed, pay the man. His bat to ball skills and defensive instincts are almost impossible to find.
This brings me to Bellinger. The Cubs had Bellinger for a year, they saw his work ethic, his clubhouse presence and if, based on what they saw, they think he can produce 30/100 then PAY THE MAN because you know who the Cubs have right now who’s a middle of the order bat, can drive in 100 rbis with a high batting average? No one and no prospect projects to be one either. Cassie is the closest but is a high high bust factor. I don’t care if you have to spend 10/300, middle of the order bats do not grow on trees.
I don’t care if you have to spend 10/300, middle of the order bats do not grow on trees.
========================
I think you’ll be disappointed in the results. I’m sure that the NYY, NYM, SDPs, etc., thought the same thing.
Both the NYY and NYM larger troubles in ’23 was reliable pitching. SDP where just so strangely unlucky.
Some day, front offices will learn that red flags out weigh potential. Rodon was a disaster waiting to happen. Some reason, front offices still blindly throw money at guys with injury riddled past after a healthy season or two in hopes that magically they will healthier as they get older.
Braves-expensive middle of the line up
Phillies-expensive middle of the line up
Dodgers-expensive middle of the line up
Rangers-expensive middle of the line up
Astros-expensive middle of the line up
Twins-expensive middle of the line up.
The O’s and Diamondbacks are outliers because they rebuilt for so long.
If you want to see a team that is writing the book, it’s the Astros. To start, the Astros didn’t need to spend top dollar on middle of the order hitters because they rebuilt for years and had them in the farm. They spent on complementary pieces and won a title. As they continue, the avoid spending a lot of money in free agency on complementary pieces but have spent big money keeping Bergman, Altuve spending where they have to spend to find the right pieces while developing complementary pieces (and Kyle Tucker).
When they sign complementary players, it’s small 1-2 year deals, the occasional 3 year deal for Abreu but they lock up “core” guys long term. They play big market “moneyball” better than anyone.
Bellinger can want a 10 year deal all he wants, but there’s no way he gets THAT big of a deal. 6-7 years is likely what he gets.
One good year recently does not a ten year contract make, whether you are repped by Boras or Joe da agent.
Wrigley field is middle of the pack when it comes to park factors. baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-f…
Francona 2 titles and making 4.5 million. Brewers paying Counsell 3.5 million top 5 in game with 1-9 playoff record no titles. Everyone including Counsell himself acts like brewers paying chicken feed. I’m sure brewers have offered more $$$
> Counsell 3.5 million top 5 in
> game with 1-9 playoff record
Umm
Math error
Counsell playoff record: 7-12
Counsell’s playoff record can’t be dumped at his feet alone. The Brewers frugal nature made them cheap out at the deadline every year and even had them trading off valuable pieces at deadlines and adding the cheapest guys they could find. When Burnes and Woodruff choked it always put the Brewers down in playoff series. You can blame this as much on the owner as you can on Counsell. As a Cub fan I wish the Cubs would make a play for him. I don’t think Ross has the knowledge for the job. It was wishful thinking but he proved last year it’s beyond his reach. You would be lucky to get him but I think he’s Mets or Brewers bound.
Counsell is either going to stay with the Brewers because he’s lived there for years or he’s going to the Mets, I seriously doubt Cleveland even has a shot. If Hoyer was smart he would at least check in but since Ricketts and Hoyer have all but said Ross is coming back I guess that point is moot.
Maybe you can’t lay the poor playoff record at his feet. But you also can’t claim his regular season success is all him either then. So what is he? If he isn’t a difference maker and can’t take a defense/pitching first team (run prevention philosophy) to the big dance, then why should the Brewers lay out huge money to keep him around and set the market for managers across the league? He’s a good manager who hasn’t been able to get his teams over the top. At this point then, you have to say spending money on the on-field talent (impact players or those with impact potential) would be a better investment based on team needs. Over paying for a top of market manager with a squad full of league average position players isn’t a recipe that has worked over his tenure.
He’s a continuation of the Brewers analytics driven front office, just like Roberts with the Dodgers or Cash with the Rays or all the consistently competitive teams
Can’t disagree. It’s a very bland, generic form of baseball and not very compelling if you’re looking to build a special team.
Please take him and be careful what you wish for.
how’d he make it to game 7 of an NLCS with 1 total playoff win?
> how’d he make it to game 7 of an
> NLCS with 1 total playoff win?
Voodoo, witchcraft, a little hocus-pocus, two shakes of a lamb’s tail, many protests, but all without any tomfoolery or shenanigans.
“Voodoo, witchcraft, a little hocus-pocus, two shakes of a lamb’s tail, many protests, but all without any tomfoolery or shenanigans.”
Two thumbs up: one for use of “tomfoolery”, the other for “shenanigans”
As a brewers fan, I wouldn’t be mad if he left it’s time for the brewers to get someone else. His post season record is very dismal, he relies to much on analytics like playing matchup far too much and doesn’t manage his team with “small ball”. It wouldn’t hurt to bunt every now and the. I think it’s time for the brewers to get someone else.
The problem is, believe it or not, not every player knows how to bunt properly. It’s worse now than it was before because the bunt is used less. But there’s far more to it than just holding the bat out. It’s sadly a lost form. But you have to be real good at pitch/location recognition and angling the bat, knowing how to approach it, or you’ll just pop it up or send the ball rolling way to easily to a defender who can still throw out the lead runner.
The bunt isn’t used much because its ineffective at creating runs. Outs are too valuable to trade them for one base. .
The bunt is ineffective because too few players have been taught how to execute it.
So, how effective at creating runs were the 41,843 strikeouts that took place in MLB in 2023? All those “valuable” outs traded for nothing.
I know Billy Hamilton never got the hang of it.
If only….
I disagree, it comes down to what you are playing for. If you are in extra innings, bottom of the half with your runner on second, speed with no outs, doesn’t a bunt make sense to get to third with one out vs being on second with one out?
This is where situation dictates over analytics.
The bunt is not effective because sacrificing an out actually lowers the probability of scoring a run.
The runner on 2B with 1 out gives the team an increase in run expectancy of 0.155 over him being on 1B, but the getting that out is a loss of 0.218 in run expectancy. The team loses more in run expectancy than they gain by sacrifice bunting a runner to 2B.
In extra innings it would be an even greater loss of run expectancy from 1.068 with no outs and a man on 2B to 0.865 with 1 out and a man on 3B.
A sacrifice bunt is not worth the loss of run expectancy.
If a player is capable of bunting for a hit that is a different story. The problem is so few are fast enough to lay down a bunt for a hit.
@Pads Fan
That isn’t true. A runner on third with one out scores approx. 66% of the time.
Cutting loose with a runner on second and no outs equates to 59% success rate.
So if you are playing for a run, you are statistically better off to bunt the runner over.
It wouldn’t hurt to bunt every now and the.
=========================
It probably would hurt. No one sacrifices anymore.
Atlanta had two sacrifices for the entire year, and I would take odds that both were probably bunting for a hit that moved a runner along.
Theoretically, I think every minor league LH hitter should be taught to push a bunt down 3rd, but that doesn’t usually happen.
It all comes down to one question: who are you going to get that’s better?
All fans complain about the manager until they find out the next guy is worse.
Nah, Counsell is great. No one manages a bullpen like him.
Cubs won’t re-sign Belli.
Boras wants people to forget Belli’s been bad 3 of the last 4 years and to only judge him on his walk year.
Bellinger was fairly good in 2020, horrible in 2021, bad in 2022 and pretty good in 2023. Whatever his previous issues, he seems to be back on track.
@MLBFAN, Aside from the walk year speculation, issues Bellinger struggled through are pretty widely known. He had a very big swing to begin with and then suffered a shoulder injury. The impact of shoulder injury on the already big swing made it very hard for him to adjust or get around on ball with the barrell.
Last offseason he worked with hitting coaches to make adjustments in his swing. There are countless videos that can be found analyzing old and new swing and even a few with overlays of the two. Teams don’t care what Boras wants him to be judged on, all interested teams will no doubt thoroughly analyze footage of his swing as well as have a comprehensive exam of his shoulder.
Boras has already made and will undoubtedly send advanced analysis complete with video’s and explanations of the changes Bellinger has made to his swing and why to any team interested in talking about signing him as soon as Bellinger is officially a FA 5 days after the WS is complete.
Bellinger will command $$$, but like most players who break out on a contract year – I expect a downturn from him.
He’s a gamble. You really don’t know what to expect. I pity a team that would offer him a long term contract.
Cut back on his 420 and it’s paid off.
Dude hit a 420 foot home run on 4/20
But how high was it?
Belli to Tigers for 5 years and $175 Mill
Mike Illitch? Is that you?
If Counsell is not meeting with the Guardians until November 1st, why would they have had to ask permission to interview him?
Pretty sure it’s a conclusion of the season thing when his contract expires, so the end of the World Series
I think he’s meeting with them today. We can end the speculation that he may not manage next season with his sense of urgency.
The weirder thing is that he already received permission to speak to the Mets but hasn’t interviewed yet apparently? But having the permission before the 1st also helps to allow him to line up the interviews sooner, rather than not talking to them until the 1st and then not interviewing until next week.
I think the Mets job is a slamdunk if he wants it. He probably wants at least two competing offers in hand for Stearns so he can kick it up to Cohen. Who knows?
Perhaps there has been a correction since your comment but it states they are meeting today but his contract is not officially up until 11/1
Indeed. It initially said that he was meeting with them on November 1st.
While the Cubs fain interest in resigning Bellinger, their strategy, historically, would indicate that it’s mostly hyperbole. Oh, they’ll listen but in the end, his deal will be too much for the Cubs to bear. Meanwhile, PCA will make a run for the roster spot at spring training. Im not convinced he will be able to handle MLB pitching. I hope I’m wrong.
I love this unfounded myth that the Cubs are somehow frugal with money.
The only time the Cubs have been frugal and cut payroll for the sake of cutting payroll was in 2021 and that was due to Covid and the Cubs having a massive interest payment due from the Wrigley renovations.
Aside from that, they have spent pretty heavily, Jon Lester, Jason Heyward, Dansby Swanson, Marcus Stroman got paid 50 million for two years, Yu Darvish, Craig Kimbrel.
Critics argue because the Cubs haven’t inked anyone to a ten year deal. Well the 10 year deal is a pretty new phenomenon, how many 10 year free agent deals were handed out before Machado and Harper? Furthermore, how many players have reached free agency before 30? They say that signing Swanson is “more in their comfort level” which should be more in EVERYONES comfort level, signing a guy basically for only his prime years but arguing that Swanson was less than Correa, Turner, Bogaerts in term of talent level even though it was Swanson who out produced all three? Swanson who is entering his prime and seems to be getting better every year? That’s the argument they want to go with? Cool cool.
The Cubs, under the Ricketts family, have paid the luxury tax but like most teams, do not want to live in it. At one point, with Lester, Darvish, Chatwood, Quintana, Hamels and Hendricks, they were spending 100 million a season in starting pitching alone! Cubs won’t spend?
I guess since the “Cubs won’t spend” narrative doesn’t fly, now it has to be “Cubs won’t give 10 year deals”
Unfounded myth? It’s Cubs fans like you that I always felt were part of the problem when I was a writer. Of course they’re frugal. They only went over the luxury tax once or twlwide ywt they print money at Wrigley. And it’s embarrassing the way they came up short last season due to not wanting to go over the tax line. They needed a closer and other high leverage relief but only got Cuas? What a fricken joke! Ricketts feels like he gave us our title so now it’s his time to rake in the cash for his investors and himself.
I disagree with you right there, last year was a good team but I’m not breaking the bank prospect wise for a high leverage reliever and certainly not a closer for that team.
Contrarily, I think Hoyer should have had Brown up before the deadline along with Wicks and Little sooner. Those were your potential high leverage relievers right there.
The need the Cubs didn’t address was mid-rotation starter. We dodged a bullet thanks to Assad and Wicks pitching mostly good but the Cubs miffed the need for a starter, not relievers. Cuas was a savvy snag, I was really happy with that one.
For a guy who used to be a writer, there’s sure a lot of typos…
The Cubs were never strapped for cash. Joe Ricketts is just extremely stingy with his money.
PCA will make a run for the roster spot at spring training.
========================
That’s the way it has to be. If you have $xxx to spend, you can’t spend money at a position that youmight have covered, and then ignore a position where you definitely have an need.
Plus, both the Yankees and SD and maybe the NYMs, might have CF openings. They aren’t the guys you want to get into a brawl with.
So 17 waiver Claims by HARRIS resulted in one quality pitcher and two filler infielders in Ibanez and McKinstry. Is the article stating that this should impress us?
Carlos Guzman.
2.
It’s really tough to give guys the proper amount of reps to prove themselves with selecting so many in the draft.and soapy teams.
You have to wonder about the decision makers motivation in many cases.
Soupy Sales says, “Hello”.
No it shouldn’t impress you picking up guys off the waiver wire is the bare minimum you can do to find free talent. Yet there are many GMs out there who do not do it. Bad teams MUST constantly scour the waiver wire, they should not be praised for that, it should be expected. Not sure why everyone makes such a big deal over harris and zaidi and others doing it, it’s the lest they can do.
Mining one Tyler Holton is arguably not worth sitting through waiver duds like Anthony Misiewicz 16 times.
Upon further reflection, forget the ‘arguably’ part. It isn’t remotely worth it. So, next season, please just claim that one successful player and spare us fans those failed 16.
It was worth it to Tyler Horton.
How do you know who the next Holton is unless you test drive some bodies? Granted 16 is a lot, but no GM has a crystal ball. In what everyone expected to be a lost season, why not test drive a few new bodies. Most don’t work out but most prospects don’t work out either. The point is that trial and error resulted in a pretty solid find in Holton.
Bellinger had a nice bounce back season in a hitter friendly park. I’m not sure i would count on that in anything more than a 3 year deal
8/200 is the start of negotiations. Might go as high as 10 years.
What team would be foolhardy enough to offer a guy with his track record 8 years, let alone 10? The risk is so high, the only teams I can see making those offers are ones with owners who spend like a drunken pirate captain, and even then I doubt many of those teams will want a guy who is likely to spend most of the next decade at 1B.
So you’re saying that are some in spite of your opinions of him and you’re a small-or mid- market team fan. That’s appears to be the prevailing sentiment here.
Former ROY and MVP. 120 career OPS+. 133 last season. Career 4.1 WAR avg/162 games 4.4 WAR last season. Going into his age 28 season. No competition on the FA market except Ohtani.
Bellinger will get a huge contract regardless of the risk to the team. The upside potential is that high and $25 million AAV is not that high.
I’m saying that there might be one or two teams willing to invest big money in Bellinger, but only if they believe he’s a CF for the next four years. He looks like he’s destined for permanent 1B to me and soon. He’s gonna need to hit for a 130 OPS+ annually for $25-30 mil AAV at 1B, he’s only done that 3 times in his career. I just do not see who is going to take that sort of risk, especially since it seems this year the trade market will be where talent comes from. The drunken pirate captains seem to have already spent all their money over the last few years and most of those teams really didn’t have very good years in 23. As someone who has no stakes in the game is see a lot of big IFs. My guess is that he gets a five or six year deal in February, less than 200 million. Though I would be pleased to be wrong, just for the sheer drama of it all.
I suppose that depends on whether you see him as a CF or a 1B. If teams think he can stick at CF then i could see $200 mil. But otherwise, there are guys you could target on the trade market for much less risk. Bellinger has just been so inconsistent, I have a hard time seeing the plethora of suitors needed for a 10 year deal. That said, I would love for it to happen just for the drama lol.
So you are saying you don’t watch much baseball? Bellinger is 27 years old and was a plus defender in CF. A 4 OAA. He is going to get paid.
Okay here are a few more numbers: his ultimate zone rating was -1.8 (-4.1 over 150) and his defensive runs saved was -3. That’s okay, but not anything that bodes well for a long term CF. His innings at 1B will go up every year, faster with injuries. I am not saying he won’t get paid just that he won’t be worth an 8 year deal. It is not wise to judge a defender’s ability based on watching them on TV, you use advanced metrics. OAA does not paint a full picture, sick burn though.
Any bidder beyond that is either desperate or really believe he’s back in form for the long term. Either way he’s too much of a gamble for 4+ years. He’d be an Angel kind of free agent signing if they didn’t still have a mouthful of sand from the Rendon signing.
More like a mouthful of glass
Any team that calls and says we will offer 4 years and will hear a ring tone before they say a dollar amount. Bellinger is a former MVP who rebounded to a very high level.
Bellinger may get LONGER than 8 years because of his age. Many are saying 10 years. A few I have seen talk about the possibility of a $30 million AAV over an 8 year deal. 8 years and $200 million is a conservative estimate of his next contract.
Forget about Cody and the Cubs need to focus on third base, first base, and a rotation arm.
Cody can play first but what he would want in years and money is not reasonable at all if it is eight to ten years and over two hundred million.
Re-signing not resigning.
It’s amazing how common this mistake is made.