Adding as many as three starting pitchers is a stated offseason goal for Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, and it isn’t surprising that the club is already plotting out some notable free agent pursuits. While the Cards will cast a wide berth across the free agent pitching market, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray are two pitchers in particular “the Cardinals have identified as good fits and plan to approach to see if the feeling is mutual.”
In something of a pitching-heavy free agent class, Nola (30 years old) and Gray (34 next month) are two of the top names available. Both will be entering free agency for the first time due to contract extensions signed earlier in this careers, and since both pitchers will undoubtedly receive and reject qualifying offers, the Cardinals would have to give up $500K in international bonus money and their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft as compensation for a signing.
St. Louis has traditionally been somewhat modest in its dips into the open market, as Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason remains the biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent player. In terms of pitching contracts, the Cards gave Mike Leake five years/$80MM during the 2015-16 offseason but that deal didn’t work out, to the point that St. Louis traded Leake before the contract was even two years old. More recently, the Cardinals signed Steven Matz for four years and $44MM two winters ago, though Matz’s performance has been inconsistent and he has battled some injury problems.
With rotation help such a glaring need, however, the Cardinals might have no choice but to test free agency for the pitchers they need, particularly front-of-the-rotation types. Both Gray and Nola had pretty comparable overall numbers and Nola actually had the better SIERA (3.75 to 3.95) of the two pitchers, though Gray ended up with a 2.79 ERA to Nola’s 4.46 ERA — perhaps underlining the difference between the Twins’ defense and the Phillies’ much weaker defense.
Goold noted that the Cardinals are among the many teams who have scouted Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and that the team could explore a reunion with Jordan Montgomery after St. Louis dealt Montgomery to the Rangers at the trade deadline. Looking at the market as a whole, if the Cards are indeed leaning towards Gray and Nola as their top choices, that gives some hint as to the Cardinals’ spending range.
Gray and Nola will each command healthy contracts, yet not in the stratosphere of a Shohei Ohtani (who won’t even pitch in 2024 anyway due to Tommy John surgery) or perhaps even Yamamoto, whose contract might approach $200MM because he is only 25 years old. Montgomery and Blake Snell are two more of the top starters available, though it is perhaps noteworthy that both are represented by the Boras Corporation, whereas Gray is repped by Bo McKinnis and Nola by Paragon. While the Cardinals have rostered and acquired several Scott Boras clients over the years, Boras’ penchant for encouraging clients to wait until deeper into the offseason to sign might not be ideal for a St. Louis team that would probably prefer to get its top-end pitching acquisitions out of the way sooner rather than later.
VonPurpleHayes
Good luck with that. I’m sure half the league will be interested.
Bart Harley Jarvis
So, the Cardinals have dibs?
rennick
I’m actually surprised that Goold wrote ab article like this. I thought teams weren’t allowed to comment on guys they’d like to have if they are still under contract. Nola is still under contract until 5 days after the World Series concludes.
Though I suppose Goold could always say he was guessing despite the fact that he is clearly indicating that he has inside knowledge. I mean, obviously all clubs are having conversations. They just can’t be made public. Unless I am totally wrong, which has happened once before so I guess anything can happen. 😀
JoeBrady
rennick16 hours ago
I’m actually surprised that Goold wrote ab article like this.
==============================
1-These guys don’t know anyone. If it wasn’t for “unattributed rumors”, we’d have no sports writers at all.
2-Almost everyone in BB has these guys on their board, “if the feeling is mutual.” There is no an unlimited number of FA SPs. The top 5-10 are being discussed by everyone but Oakland.
Larry Brown's crank
thats what I thought. insert any team name here
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
I don’t believe my Phillies will let Nola walk without putting up a good fight. I’m figuring the minimum for his services will start at $25 million for at least five years. Maybe even $30 million over six years.
Those are doable numbers for the Phillies. However, if another team steps in and breaks the bank like the Nats did for a productive and fan favorite, Jason Werth, the Phillies may have no choice but to pass.
Also, I think the Padres will fight like hell to keep Snell.
FrontOfficeStan
I’m not sure the Cards would drive up the price there. I expect 25/yr to be the cap.
Milwaukee-2208
Pretty bad free agent class for starters. Nola will be paid but boy is he about as mid as it gets. Not someone I’d invest top money in
Jake Biggar
Nola isn’t an ace but he’s #3 innings eater with #2 upside. That’s worth a lot of money.
Milwaukee-2208
He will be paid like an ace since the free agent class is weak. Doesn’t mean he’s worth it.
Seamaholic
This is the best free agent class for pitchers in years.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I disagree. He had a bad year, but at least half of his years, if not more, he’s been an ace, and his strikeout rate is great. He can be a #1 on a good year. Few pitchers make it to 200 innings and Nola’s done this three times, while your Cy Young frontrunner, Snell, hasn’t done it once.
No question he has had ace-like seasons, so don’t just count this year.
VonPurpleHayes
This is a bad take. He’s absolutely a #1 on plenty of teams despite this bad year. At worst a #2.
CardsFan57
I’d rather bring Montgomery back than bring in Nola. I’m expecting the Rangers to bring Montgomery back instead.
JoeBrady
Yamamoto
Snell
Nola
Montgomery
Gray
Ohtani (kind of)
And a bunch of #2/3 types. Good pickings this year.
AM21
Calling Nola “mid” only indicates you don’t know much baseball or you’re just a hater.
DonOsbourne
Blah, blah, blah. I’ll believe it when I see it. They will probably make one major outlay for appearance sake. And they will probably regret that contract for years to come. But there is no way they are going to go on a spree and outbid for multiple starters.
They said they were going to spend last year too. Then sticker shock set in.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Marco Gonzales for Tyler O’Neill who says no ?
DonOsbourne
Probably Marco Gonzales
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Marco can say “Ja!” Or “Nein!” all he wants but he’s not the boss.
DonOsbourne
I know that. I was just taking a shot at the Cardinals.
CardsFan57
Lol
Larry Brown's crank
is he German, s.o.b?
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
No, I was just being dense.
DonOsbourne
It speaks volumes to me that Jordan Montgomery isn’t on their radar. My guess is he was very vocal about what a disaster Contreras was. Mo’s feelings got hurt and now we have to find another pitcher.
redbirds22
I’d say it’s more of what a joke of a manager and pitching coach the cardinals currently have. Just look at what Monty has done after getting back under Maddux’s tutelage
redbirds22
I’d say it’s more in the joke of a manager and pitching coach the Cardinals currently have. Just look at what Monty has done after being back under Maddux’s tutelage
websoulsurfer
Two of the Padres pro scouts were at Montgomery’s final start in Seattle for the Rangers. They seem to have interest in him. Why wouldn’t the Cardinals?
Tacoshells
Both pitchers are in the post season. Jimmy Butler calls tampering
Joshy
Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray not interested in Cardinals
Dotnet22
They’re interested in whomever will pay them the most money.
padrepapi
To say nothing of the Cardinals penchant for winning consistency, easily a top 5 franchise in that regard.
rct
@Dotnet22: I don’t think Gray is strictly interested in whomever will pay him the most money. If the Yankees (or Mets) offered him the most, I don’t think he’d take it.
runningwithnailclippers
I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes back to the Reds. Exciting young team which will have a good deal of cash to spend. He pitched well there for the most part and said he enjoyed playing in Cincy.
unpaidobserver
With Sonny Gray, doubtful. He did not succeed as nor does he seem to want to be The Guy.
runningwithnailclippers
Have you personally spoken to Gray if he wants to be the guy? You have such amazing insight.
miltpappas
If I were an MLB player and could veto a trade to 16 teams, the Cardinals would never be on that list.
unpaidobserver
That would be unwise since the purpose of blocking it seems to be to extract more money and St Louis appears to be good for it.
Larry Brown's crank
congratulations!
JFactor
Contreras was a more recent and more expensive signing in free agency than Matz
RobM
The Cardinals would be a good fit for Sonny. Fans treat the players well. He’d crumble in places like Philly, NY, and Boston. What he really should do is try and stay in Minnesota.
runningwithnailclippers
Thank you for reminding us (for the millionth time) that the Cards fans are just the best.
DarkSide830
CaRdInAl WaY
stan lee the manly
I think he was more saying that Philly, NY, and Boston fans are just not the best.
WubbaLubbaDubDub
Players who have succeeded in those cities disagree. See those crowds in the playoffs?
Braves Butt-Head
Along with 20 other teams
runningwithnailclippers
Hey BBH. Do you think Acuna will get it going in game 2?
Rsox
Honestly there’s no reason they can’t sign both. Nola may take a 5 year deal at the least but at 34 Gray probably signs a 2 or 3 year deal. However don’t expect the ridiculousness low Home Runs allowed total to carry over
10centBeerNight
Nola and Montgomery will have half the clubs rigorously perusing
jaxcards
I would rather the Cardinals bring up their top minor league talent early than have them hand out two multi-year contacts to middling starters who may give you one good season out of four (or five) years of their contract. Give Hence, McGreevy, Roby, Graceffo etc. opportunities.
unpaidobserver
Theres a yin yang component to that tho. Young guys shine better in rotations in which they are not expected to anchor.
Cam
Stand in line STL, and bring a lunch.
Robertowannabe1
There will be several teams interested in these 2 guys. Several as in 2/3 of the league. There will be bidding for both and both will get more than what offers are posted. In this’d thread.
Logistics Guy
I see all 3 pitchers Nola – Gray and Yamamoto going to the New York Mets Steve C $800 million dollars Christmas gift to Mets fans
Season Greetings
Braves Butt-Head
Yep and sign Ohtani, make a trade for Soto and Trout and you will have it.
avenger65
Logistics guy: Believe it or not, not everyone wants to play in NY. Cohen doesn’t want to make the mistakes he made again next year. I have no idea what he plans on doing, but if he’s smart he should try to reassemble the 2022 team as much as possible. That team won 101 games. There wasn’t any need to change things so drastically.
websoulsurfer
Probably not. Cohen will go after the big marketing plays. Ohtani, Yamamoto (who they were a favorite to sign before Eppler resigned), and Bellinger.
Rexhudler86
Eppler did win the sweepstakes once, but his top 5 were California teams, and Seattle. Doubt he’s going to New York if doesn’t want to go back to the angels, most likely dodgers.
Dad
No such thing as a big free agent signing by the St Louis Cardinals
runningwithnailclippers
True they usually rely on their system or trades. But, with how mediocre most of the players have panned out offesnively lately, maybe they should?
geg42
Sounds like tampering
eatonculo
Goold said those things, not Mozeliak.
LFGMets (Metsin7) #InEpplerIsGone!!!!
Horrible mananager that not only doesn’t hold players accountable but also disrespects them to the media. Thats what happens when you give a guy a manager job when hes younger than a quarter of the players on the team. He commands no respect. Marmol is essentially a puppet for the GM. Thats not how you run a ball club and I’m surprised about this considering the Cardinals seems to always do everything the right way. The GM and manager both need to be gone
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Pretty crazy that pitchers can get paid like an ace on a multi-season contract when the deciding factor in the overpay is their free agent class the year they hit the market. Like, I understand overpaying for a year or two, but the AAV shouldn’t have to stay as high as when the pickings were slim.
Jacksson13
Isn’t it it organizational tampering for a team to openly disclose and discuss their interest in a player currently under contract to a different team? Gray only becomes a free agent AFTER the conclusion of the 2023 World Series.
stan lee the manly
Goold is part of the media, which has no affiliation with the team. They can say whatever they want about who teams are interested in
Bounty Hunters IA
I doubt either of them are ignorant enough to sign in cesspool east missouri.
CardsFan77
Stupid comment…. stl has become a terrible city, but these guys are multi millionaires. They can live wherever they want.. they just habe to show up for the games. On that front, Busch Stadium is on of the most beautiful stadiums in all of sports.. your comment is stupid and you should delete… you.. from existing…
uvmfiji
I’ve learned from outside sources that the Cardinals also want Kirby, Greene, Pfadt and McKenzie
runningwithnailclippers
I also heard they want to bring back Nolan Ryan and Christy Mathewson, too.
umpireman7
Can we get season over with first ⚾️
websoulsurfer
What teams are NOT interested in those two top of the market pitchers?
unpaidobserver
Royals and A’s appear to be out.
whosehighpitch
And a fart is interested in smelling up a room
Larry Brown's crank
poetry!
itsmeheyhii
Cant believe the Mike Leake signing was already that long ago. Sheesh.
UWPSUPERFAN77
You can sign both of them. However, this pattern of getting old guys has not worked lately. The break down and you only eat the contracts in the last couple of years. Nola ok,at 30, Grey too old for big contract.
Baseball Expert
Let me guess, they’ll just miss again after all the season ticket applications are processed. I can’t even blame DeWitt. It works every time for him. This has become a joke site at least as far as the Cardinals are concerned.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Maybe the Cards can move Contreras. He did hit well in the second half, however I get the feeling from reading previous comments that pitchers are not enamored with his game calling and defense.
Lots of teams need catchers, so moving him shouldn’t be too hard..
JoeBrady
I’d like Nola for my RS, depending on price. Not perfect, but shouldn’t be lower than a solid #2. And mostly, he doesn’t seem to miss many innings.
FrontOfficeStan
People think the Cards can get Gray for a 2 year contract? It’s going to be 4 if they want to land him at a reasonable aav.
Nola will be too expensive, but the FO will make sure it is known they’re involved in talks. We will definitely be rumored to be in but won’t be serious contenders imo.
Flaherty could be back on a short term prove it deal.
Probably better for fans to expect the Cardinals front office to take the cheapest route possible while giving the appearance of wanting to spend a lot.
Slider_withcheese
They’ll overpay and get someone stupid like a Marcus Stroman and a washed up vet like Lynn then tell everyone that they have the next wave of superstar arms already in house with Libatore, Hudson, and Woodford.
AM21
The Phillies are going to regret not locking him up before the season started.