Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League where a number of future Major Leaguers are making their case. After falling behind James Triantos last week, Jakob Marsee has reclaimed his spot as the top-performing hitter in the AFL. The pitching leader isn’t as clear cut, though I believe Davis Daniel currently has the strongest case.
This week, the listed stats are from the AFL.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Chase DeLauter, 22, OF, CLE
73 PA, 4 HR, 5 SB, .270/.358/.492
Arguably the top hitting prospect in the league, DeLauter went on a tear recently. The oft-injured lefty owns an unusual swing. Scouts believe he’ll feature plus contact and power at maturity. Presently, the contact plays more consistently than his power. He also shows the plate discipline typical of many Guardians prospects – as evidenced by 10 walks and six strikeouts. DeLauter has the potential to move quickly once he gets out from under the shadow of his past injuries. His batting profile pairs well with lefty-friendly Progressive Field.
Kala’i Rosario, 21, OF, MIN
73 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, .185/.284/.477
In my AFL preview, I described Rosario as “one of the most accomplished power hitters in the AFL.” This week, he moved into sole ownership of the home run lead with six dingers. I also noted Rosario’s improving strikeout rate throughout the season. That has backed up in the desert. His 34 percent strikeout rate is one of the worst in the league among regulars. Rosario might be showing fatigue – this has been his longest season by around 200 plate appearances.
Tyler Locklear, 22, 1B, SEA
71 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .302/.395/.524
Locklear is a powerful right-handed first baseman with double-plus strike zone instincts. He lays off pitches outside of the zone without any evidence of passivity in the zone. His prospect status suffers from a perceived weakness against velocity in on his hands. Since it’s in vogue to attack a hitter’s hands with triple-digit velocity, it makes sense Locklear’s comparative weakness is seen as a limiting flaw. Teams tend to ask right-handed first basemen to doubly prove themselves before they’re given a chance.
I do have optimism. Locklear’s mechanics aren’t flagged as the issue – he just doesn’t pull the ball with authority. I see this as a symptom of his plate discipline – one that might self-correct in time. Though he isn’t passive in the zone, he’s probably delaying his swing decision just long enough to spoil his outcomes on the inner edge.
Dylan Dodd, 25, SP, ATL
15 IP, 3 BB, 16 K, 3.60 ERA
A Spring Training standout, Dodd performed well in his first start then promptly unraveled. A command-and-control southpaw who relies on disrupting timing, Dodd’s struggles followed him back to the minors. He pitched much better after a month-long absence in July. His final eight appearances combined for 38.1 innings of 3.29 ERA ball. His AFL has served as a continuation of that rebound. Ultimately, Dodd resembles the latest incarnation of “The Soft-Tossing Southpaw” – a profile which plays best in low-stress, regular season settings. Like a Wade Miley, he could help round out a rotation for the next decade or more.
Carson Williams, 20, SS, TBR
69 PA, 5 SB, .271/.386/.305
Upon learning of the allegations against Wander Franco, the Rays immediately challenged Williams with a promotion to Triple-A. He was visibly overmatched. Once returned to High-A, he resumed his dominance of that league and even finished the year with a heady week in Double-A. The level hopping might have taken its toll as Williams has struggled to spark in the AFL. He should be among the league leaders. Among the ugliest signs is his 36 percent strikeout rate. He’s also managed just two extra-base hits – a pair of doubles.
Three More
Damiano Palmegiani, TOR (23): Another of the players I highlighted in the AFL preview, Palmegiani has quietly hung around the top of the offensive stats. He has nine extra base hits including four home runs. He likely has a role with the Blue Jays next season.
Caleb Durbin, NYY (23): An Altuve-sized second baseman for whom I have no scouting reports, Durbin has followed a successful stint at Double-A with an impressive AFL performance. In 69 plate appearances, he has 12 walks and six strikeouts along with a .351/.486/.596 triple-slash.
Kevin Alcantara, CHC (21): A powerful slugger with questionable contact skills, Alcantara is holding his own without truly impressing. He’s already used one service year and doesn’t appear to be a lock to debut in 2024.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
What does that mean
“Alcantara used one service year?” Does Brad mean an option year? Baseball Reference lists him as in the major leagues but doesn’t list any games played.
Either that or minor league service time.
Correct. He is on the major league roster but playing in the minors. Guys like him risk finallly making the majors with only one option left, which is problematic.
@Brad Johnson: Caleb Durbin was dealt by the Braves to the Yankees along w/rp Indigo Diaz for Lucas Luetge. You might find a scouting report on Durbin in the archives of the Braves fan site Battery Power.
While I respect the important work done by team fan sites, scouting generally isn’t within their wheelhouse.
(Dylan Dodd) could help round out a AAA rotation for the next decade or more.
Fixed.
I didn’t realize he was a “big hype” prospect. I consider him more of a “I hope Atlanta scores some runs and the bullpen isn’t burnt-up” pitching prospect.
Dodd was not a big draft pick. So never really a ‘big hype’ like you were saying. He has been a successful pick that has helped the big league team. Hopefully he will continue to adjust and make more contributions. If he can add 2/3 mph on his fb and keep his control is what he was saying he was trying to ‘add.’ Vines and Dodd are both highly rated in the Braves organization. They are both low in terms of stuff but keep growing and getting better and defying the odds. Neither of these are big starter prospects that Strider became, or possibly Waldrep, AJSS, Richie, Schwellenback, Maier, Phillps, Burkhalter (last 5 coming back from major arm injures), Keuhler, Keller, and Hackenberg, Nope, Dodd and Vines are in the Shuster, Murphy type stuff who may become an Elder type or a bit better. Regardless Dodd and Vines have been very good picks for Atlanta and have exceeded expectations.
“Big Hype” is literally the title of this article. They’re the first words written on this page.
Yes, that what the article series states. What happening with “Big Hyped..” and you said “I didn’t think Dodd is …” I apologize if you think I was correcting you.
I have to throw this in, Tyler Locklear will be only the second Locklear in MLB history.
The first was Gene Locklear from the San Diego Padres from 1973 to 1977. Gene Locklear is a successful artist now. I think he could hit but couldn’t field. I have childhood memories of sitting in the left field stands at San Diego stadium and people heckling him horribly.
Dylan Dodd will win the game that knocks the Cubs out of the playoffs in 2024 calling it now
Congrats to Acuna for winning that game this year
> Dylan Dodd will win the game that knocks
> the Iowa Cubs out of the playoffs in 2024
> calling it now
Fixed
Did Dylan Dodd kill your family? He was a rookie who’s still improving, I feel like you already made your mind up that you despise him
> Did Dylan Dodd kill your family?
Nope.
Kicked mah dog
Stoled mah dam lunch money
Rusted up mah Chevy
Burnt down mah trailer
Shot up mah Ford pickup
Drunk up mah last case of Lucky Lager
Busted up mah Compact Stereo HiFi player
DO I GOTTA GO ON???
DOWN WITH THE DODD!!!!!
But did he steal your van down by the river?
Guardians fans are hoping to see Delauter in AAA to start the year and, if all goes well, the Majors in 2024. He looks legit
How deep is the Padres system? Marsee, who is the best hitter in the AFL so far, is not a top 10 prospect in their system and probably won’t be to start 2024.
Maybe a better question is, “How meaningful are AFL statistics?”
You might want to look into that. The WS MVP has been a former AFL player the last 8 years and the AFL MVP has gone on to be a plus (3.0 WAR or higher) MLB player more than 70% of the time. Its a higher than the percentage for top 10 prospects.
They are playing against the young players the teams feel are the best in their system typically.
So to answer your question, AFL stats are incredibly meaningful.
The best question is can and will AJ Preller’s organization finish off his development.
Nobody should doubt Preller’s ability to identify amateur talent. He’s one of the best at that.
Hasn’t kept and developed a large number of those guys though.
Seidler, a venture capitalist, views prospects as capital. Some are kept in house and much is traded at peak value.
The Padres had Snell, Musgrove, Darvish, Soto, Hader, and others this season because of the value of the prospects he acquired.
Today the Padres have 2 of the top 10 prospects in the game. They have 5 in the top 100 and most expect that preseason prospect rankings will see 7 Padres prospects in the top 100.
Marsee is a very good prospect that is not even in the Padres top 10, but would be #5-#7 in most systems. Several articles including ones on this website have said that the Padres may have included Marsee in the AFL to showcase him for offseason trade possibilities.
I agree with that assessment. He is not MLB ready yet and there are too many people ahead of him on the depth chart.
Hemlock, Dylan Dodd will continue to make his dreams come true in Iowa or Cubs or Braves as you keep being snarky.
There: Fixed.
Well I can’t see my last post or Braves83’s replies telling me Dylan Dodd isn’t a big hype prospect despite why this article is titled. Oh well
Try again?
Dodd has no future in the bigs. Neither does Shuster. They looked completely lost and awful.
The Honorable Saint Nick is now presiding.
Its so frustrating that there are no Angels prospects on these lists other than Davis Daniel. None at all. Even he got a cup of coffee this season. I know that Minasian called all the better ones up already, but there is so little depth that there are no other good ones still developing in the system.
Yep. Amazing how they are near the bottom of the rankings every year.
Interesting comment on the Jays Palmegiani. He is a primary 1B and dabbles at 3B, but he is stacked behind both Vlad and Horowitz at 1B. If you are thinking 3B, which he is not very good at, then he is behind both Barger and Martinez in that pecking order who are all more highly ranked and more talented. Time will tell though. He has had a nice Fall league though.
I’ll emphasize: “a role” is far different from a “regular” role.. He’ll find his way into the lineup in certain matchups. Possibly also when the infield has one or more injuries.