Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller addressed members of the media on Wednesday (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) to discuss his team’s disappointing performance in 2023 and what to expect from the offseason ahead. He confirmed that he will remain the club’s chief baseball executive going forward, and likewise, skipper Bob Melvin will remain at the helm in 2024. Preller also touched on the Padres’ farm system, a potential addition to the front office, and the possibility of an extension for superstar Juan Soto.
Considering that the Padres vastly underperformed this past season, it’s no surprise Preller and Melvin were on the hot seat. San Diego reached the NLCS in 2022, yet after a busy offseason in which the team spent over $400MM in free agency, they barely finished above .500 this year, falling two games shy of a postseason berth. The president of baseball ops didn’t deny how frustrating the 2023 season was, but he didn’t blame his manager for everything that went wrong. This comes two days after Padres chairman Peter Seidler expressed his complete support for the leaders running his team.
Said Preller, “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward,” leaving no room for doubt that Melvin’s job is secure. However, the executive wouldn’t broach the subject of an extension – the manager is only under contract for one more year – instead emphasizing that both he and Melvin are focused on improving the current roster and getting the Padres back to the postseason in 2024. “Next year is going to be a different year,” he explained. “A different team, different players.”
While there won’t be a different manager or a different president of baseball operations, Preller said he has thought about possibly hiring a general manager. He has technically held both titles since he was promoted ahead of the 2021 season, but it has become quite common for teams to have a separate president of baseball ops and GM. Preller wouldn’t commit to making a hire, but he said he’d be open to adding a new executive “that brings different experiences” to the front office.
On the topic of reinforcements, Preller also addressed San Diego’s farm system, expressing confidence in the cohort of young players approaching the upper levels of the minors. He believes the team has several prospects who could make an impact sooner or later, especially as added depth. His remarks weren’t particularly revealing, but they were encouraging, given the sheer number of prospects the Padres have given up in recent trades, along with the draft picks they’ve lost by signing top free agents.
The executive wasn’t quite as confident about Juan Soto’s long-term future with the Padres. While he said his first move will be to discuss an extension with the three-time All-Star, he didn’t deny the possibility of trading the lefty slugger instead. “We’ve never been a group that says no to anything,” Preller explained. “I wouldn’t read into that. That’s just kind of the way we operate.” His comments suggest that no trade is imminent, but by not shutting down the question, he left the potentiality on the table.
AJ Preller is always the smartest guy in the room…in the very few times he’s actually all alone in a room.
mlb – If Preller is smart he will try to take advantage of the upheaval in Beantown by trading Soto for Rafaela.
And I’m not just pulling that out of thin air, as Passan already talked about a potential Sox/Pads deal. The Sox have the payroll flexibility and the need for a big splash this offseason.
Passan lol
Padres would have to be absolutely blown away to trade Soto. There is literally no one on the FA market other than Ohtani and Bellinger. Those are $500 million and $300 million investments there. After that, its barren. Soto is 24 and coming off a season where he was a top 6 hitter in baseball with a 5.6 WAR overall.
Because of all that the Padres are going to ask for far more than anyone would imagine for Soto. They are going to want an MLB player that is both very good and very young, plus a top 100 prospect that is MLB ready, and more. At least 2 other decent prospects.
Their immediate needs that would have to be addressed in the trade are pitching and OF.
Red Sox have the OF in Rafaela, but unless Bello is in the trade, they just don’t have the pitching. Houck and Whitlock will be 28 next season and have not shown they are any good so they would be a no.
Maybe the Red Sox could get a third team involved, but it’s not a great fit for the Padres.
Web, no disrespect meant but it’s only for one season and then you have to pay him. I don’t think the return would be as big as you suggest. I’ve been wrong before and will again but the Sox need pitching and Bello should not be going anywhere. Say what you want about Bloom but he did build up the farm so trades are likely. The Sox will also spend but to me Soto if traded, ends up in NY (Mets or Yankees).
No disrespect taken. In a normal offseason where there were multiple great bats on the market it would not take that much.
This season there is Ohtani, Bellinger, and the schmoes. It would take a boatload to pry him lose from the Padres because they have all the leverage.
I wouldn’t expect the Red Sox to trade Bello and they really don’t have much else to trade that the Padres need. I don’t think them trading for Soto is a good fit for either team.
BTW, I agree about Dewey.
Web – I don’t think you’re looking at leverage properly.
Padres will be forced to trade Soto now because he has just one year remaining and they can’t afford to take on yet another massive contract for a position player.
Meanwhile, no teams are forced to acquire Soto nor are there many that can afford to extend him. Teams that have a need for a position player can always make a trade with all other teams.
It’s basically the same situation as Mookie, we saw how little he brought back.
This is very wrong, padres have no problem singing Soto to a long term deal they said it again yesterday that is the top outcome with Soto. They are unlikely to trade him but if he won’t sign an extension and so now gives them a good other they may consider it.
Not suggesting Soto isn’t an outstanding player, but where is your WAR data from that has Soto in the top 6? Baseball reference doesn’t even have him in their top 10 position players. Betts leads with 8.4 followed by Acuna, Olson, Semien, Seager, Freeman, Henderson, Ohtani, Lindor and ending their top ten with Riley at 5.9 WAR.
Ohtani and Bellinger. Those are $500 million and $300 million investments there.
================
1-I seriously doubt Belli gets anywhere near $300M. He’s had one good season in four years.
2-You forgot Lee. I’d bet Lee will provide more value than either Ohtani or Belli, and unfortunately, might well wind up on the Padres. He’s a perfect fit.,
There is a zero percent chance that Cody Bellinger gets 300 million. Zero.
My guess is they keep Soto and move him at the deadliine next July if they are out of it. If they are still alive they let him walk and take the comp pick…
Joe – Agree on Belli, and Matt Chapman is considered by many (including ESPN) as the second best free agent. He had a 4.4 bWAR this year and is a 3-time GG winner and twice a Top 7 MVP candidate.
He had a 4.4 but he had a 3.5/3.5 in his two previous seasons, and he will be 31 years old. I like him well enough for the RS (or any defensive player for that matter), but he is also not a guy I would open the vault for.
Matt chapman is a great example of a olayer overvalued by the WAR stat. Offensively, hes been regressing for a few years, and after april this year he was pretty awful. Hes still good on defense, but not what he was before his first few years, and it doesnt make up for his lack of offense. If anyone signs him long term they’ll regret that IMO.
@fever
The return for one year of mookie was actually solid – two top 50 mlb prospects at the time (and verdugo had a very nice 2019 in his first extended mlb look) plus the 28th in their system in wong… and they got price’s contract off their books! Return would’ve been even more without him. Soto could definitely bring back two top 100 and a lower level prospect.
“It’s basically the same situation as Mookie, we saw how little he brought back”
The heck it is. Mookie was in his last arb year making 28m, yes that is similar. But every one and their mother knew the Sox were low balling him in extension talks. Then you have David Price and the 3/96m that the Sox were desperate to get out of. They needed to eat half of his deal to get him added to it, but clearly they could have gotten a bigger package for Mookie alone.
Then you add to the fact the Padres are the anti Sox when it comes to lowballing their players and can point in a half dozen directions for recent examples.
After the Soto trade Peter Seidler was asked on camera about a potential 500m extension and his reaction was open minded to the possibility.
Fever, the Padres don’t have to trade Soto. They don’t have to cut payroll. They can keep him until the deadline and trade him if they are out of the race or keep him until the end of the season and make another run at extending him. They CAN afford to take on a contract for one of the best young players in baseball.
Meanwhile if another team WANTS to acquire a 24-year-old player that just put up a 158 OPS+ and 5.6 WAR, they will have to pay through the nose or go take their chances on the barren FA market.
The Mookie trade was, A – a salary dump that included Price. Less was given because Price was in the deal. Dodgers STILL gave up a top 35 overall prospect that was coming off a 3.0 WAR season in the majors, another top 50 overall prospect in Downs, and Wong.. B – in an offseason with a much more robust FA market.
So according to what you are saying about Betts, since there will be no Price in any trades for Soto. the Padres will get MORE than a top 35 prospect coming off a 3.0 WAR in his first MLB season, a top 50 prospect in MLB, and a catching prospect. THAT I agree with.
Hitter. Top 6 hitter. He was 12th overall in WAR.
The players are different also. Betts I’d a gold glive defender with speed on thr bases. Soto hits homers and walks a lot but he sucks on defense and offers little value on thr basepaths.
Bellinger, the 28-year-old former MVP, has the good fortune of coming off a great platform season in which there is only ONE other good hitter. If you listen to the execs around the league that have been quoted on the matter, he will get a long-term deal that is in line with his 2023 performance because GM’s believe he is finally healthy and ready to produce like he did early in his career. He made $17.5 million on a make it deal and will get at a minimum 50% more in FA. That puts him at between $26 and $30 million AAV. Don’t believe me, just watch what happens.
Lee might be a great player, but there is no way in hades that he provides more value than Ohtani or Bellinger. I really hope the Padres sign him, because I am not a Grisham fan, but he is not a major FA.
Watch. I am seldom far off on FA deals. He is 28 and made $17.5 in a make it deal and he excelled. There is only ONE other bat on the FA market. At a minimum he will get 50% more than that $17.5 million in FA. Age and value plus MVP winner in past = long term deal for in excess of $26 million.
Bellinger is not going to get $300M, maybe $200M. and that’s a maybe because teams know how dreadful he was between 2020-2022 with a slash line of .203/.272/.376. I think 5-6 years at $150M would be generous.
As Joe has pointed out many times, Chapman collapsed offensively as the season went on and ended with a 108 OPS+. His .205/.307/.357/.663 with just 5 HR and an 81 OPS+ in the 2nd half killed his value in FA.
When all you have is defense, it doesn’t pay at the hot corner.
Bellinger WAS the MVP not just a top 7 vote getter, had a 133 OPS+ in 2023 which was 25% better than Chapman, and plays good defense at a far more important defensive position.
Chapman’s value as a player to winning games is what WAR measures, and its correct. What it won’t do is get him paid like a guy with the same WAR but good offensive numbers.
People also need to realize that Bellinger’s WAR was depressed by the fact the Cubs asked him to play 1B for 59 games. He plays all those games in CF and his WAR is nearly 2 points higher because of positional adjustments.
padrepapi, I would add one other thing.
Mookie didn’t own a home in Boston area. He rented in Newton. He DID buy in LA.
Soto just bought a house, tore it down, and built a huge, $15 million custom home in Coronado next door to his teammate Manny Machado.
websoulsurfer is always far off on FA deals.
Bellinger wasn’t dreadful in 2020. 114 OPS+ and 1.5 WAR which would be equal to 4.2 WAR in a full season. He wasn’t an MVP, but still All Star level play. He got hurt at the end of that season celebrating a HR.
He is 28. He is going to want a long-term deal and with the dearth of other good position players available in FA he will get it.
I see a 3 year 75 mill deal for Bellinger with an opt out after 1st year.
I dont think teams are sold he’s gonna replicate his 2023.
If he does he can opt out reenter market after 2024. Team can QO and recoup draft picks if he leaves.
If he doesn’t he can choose to opt in for 2 years 50 mill.
I drove by there the other day and the construction fences are down. Its a gorgeous house.
Bellinger shouldn’t sniff $300MM.
In reality, he should get the Nimmo deal. He’ll get more based on the past MVP/name recognition. Nowhere near $300 though. That’ll be an albatross in short order if he does.
The largest-spending Padres went on to a nice end of the season run to only finish 18 games behind the division-winning Dodgers who were operating with a decimated starting rotation. (No Buehler, no Urias, no Gonsolin, no May, Kershaw for only part of year)
The Padres are hopefully to SHED a tiny bit of payroll but ADVANCE to being a wildcard team. While the Dodgers will have plenty of salary space to reload, the Padres will be saying goodbye to Blake Snell who was their best player in 2023. They will also say goodbye to Hader.
The Padres have to make decisions on Soto and Grisham.
Nothing is funnier than to hear a couple of posters repeat over and over – well in the double figures of posts – that trading one year of Soto has to get a similar return as what they gave up for 2.25 years of him.
This is a FLUSH free agent market, teams will be excited over guys like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Shohei Ohtani. Even second tier guys like Cody Bellinger are going to be very popular.
If the Padres trade Soto it will give them more cap space to get a pitcher but the return will be so low they will not have the cajones to pull the trigger unless it is an order from ownership. Siedler does not seem to operate that way.
Expect the Padres to be again on the cusp of a wild card so Soto probably won’t even be traded mid-season. Posters don’t understand the concept of opportunity cost. Soto is no longer a below market property his value is that you can pay him for one year rather that ten to twelve years for some elite free agents.
The Padres would get more value out of say Montgomery Sonny Gray and Candalario, than Soto and Bogaerts, because the salary savings would then allow you to keep Lugo, Wacha and Martinez. You need depth and you fill positional vacancies rather than shifting a guy like Kim to 2B. The Dodgers have been big spenders plenty of times great for the Padres to take a turn. I have respect for Padres ownership in putting an interesting product on the field, but little respect for Preller in poorly spending that money.
Padres aren’t getting what they have up for him but if you think soto’s value is low you are very wrong. His value is a little more in my eyes or about the same as monies value at the time the red sox traded him. Now the Sox picked the wrong players but if you look at value around the time of the trade it was one very good looking young mlb player. A top 50 prospect and another dude. That’s about right I think depending on how desperate a team is. I could see the Yankees and Mets giving up a little more because they are desperate. Maybe Boston as well.
There is absolutely value in having Juan Soto on your roster in 2024. Even if it’s pretty freaking obvious at this point he’s going to free agency after that and even if he’ll make a good bit of $ in his fourth and final trip through arbitration. You aren’t getting his kind of production for cheaper elsewhere.
Another reason is that players often have their best season in their walk year.
@MannyBeingMVP Well said. Soto’s a 5-6 win LFer/DH whose salary should top $25m. That gives him a surplus value of roughly $24m. Nice, but hardly incredible, That $24m isn’t quite what a 50FV (Future Value, for them who don’t know) prospect is valued at, on average, and 50FV prospects typically are not top 100 prospects.
Soto will get a small premium for packing that much value into one lineup slot, for generating a reliable return, and for only requiring one year rather than your having to buy his decline phase), but you’d much rather have two pre-arb 2 win regulars making the minimum, and then be able to go spend that $25m AAV on a star, for example.
While taking on Price, the Dodgers gave up pretty much exactly what I have been saying it will take to get Soto in order to get Betts. A proven MLB player that is young and cost controlled and a top 50 prospect, plus other prospects.
For hitters, this is the worst FA market in a generation. Bellinger is not a 2nd tier FA. He is a 28-year-old former MVP that just had a great season in his first year of playing injury free since 2020. He is top tier. Only Ohtani is valued more.
The Padres don’t have to cut salary. The owner said that payroll would be roughly the same. They are at $174 million in salary including Soto and the other arb eligible players and all the pre-arb players. Add in Carpenter, the only guy absolutely sure to exercise his player option, and they are at $180 million. That leaves them enough money to sign whomever they choose to. They don’t have to save money in order to resign Lugo or Wacha and sign the FA they really want.
That would be why they are favorites to sign Jung Ho Lee who will command 5/50 and Yamamoto who will command something close to 8/200. Lugo and Wacha are looking at raises to $10-12 million AAV and both will get a 3-year deal. Nothing precludes the Padres from resigning either or both of them. They have been aggressive in doing so in the past few seasons for players they like.
Montgomery and Gray are going to get an AAV of around $25 million. The difference will be how many years. Bogaerts is making $25 million. No salary savings there.
Bogaerts put up 10.9 WAR in 2021-2022. Kim put up 7.1 WAR. There was no question about bringing in a top level SS since the team had already decided to move Tatis to the OF. Bogaerts was the better player.
Having Kim at 2B and Cronenworth, who could play a good 2B, at 1B and bringing on Carpenter to platoon at DH and backup at 1B and OF gave the team depth. That the players didn’t perform up to their previous season’s numbers was not an indication it was a bad idea.
Passan is an idiot.
ESPN’s Passan: Cincinnati a ‘good team’ one year after ‘tanking at its absolute ugliest’ About one year ago in May 2022, ESPN’s Jeff Passan said after a 10-5 loss to the Brewers in Milwaukee dropped Cincinnati to a 3-22 record that the Reds’ effort represented “tanking at its absolute ugliest.”
I’m not a fan of Rafaela, but I still wouldn’t do that for one year of Soto.
Joe – He hasn’t lived up to the hype yet, that’s for sure. Could be another situation where people are enamored with him just because of the highlight reel plays he occasionally makes, along with his speed.
Hopefully he performs closer to Mookie than JBJ.
Hopefully he performs closer to Mookie than JBJ.
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FWIW, I didn’t like Duran, Casas, Dalbec or Middlebrooks either (all basically K/W issues). So it is easy enough for me to be wrong.
OTOH, I would be pretty happy if he was another JBJ. He averaged 3.6 bWAR/650 PAs for us in his initial stint, 2 WS rings, and a guy that looks like he was easy to hang with in the dugout.
Juan Soto pitches? Because that’s what the Red Sox needs. Duh.
Tom Price
Juan Soto pitches?
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That’s why some of these rumors are so weak. They not only need pitching, they already have 3 outfielders. No one in their right mind would trade for a 5.6 Soto simply to replace a 2.6 Verdugo.
That’s an awful trade for San Diego. I don’t think Rafaela’s plate discipline is going to work out very well in the major leagues.
You had your chance Gorman.
mlbf
Highly likely, based on what I know of him, and of you, that he’s smarter than you.
Go get Sig Mejdal or Chaim Bloom for the GM position.
No get Cashman and Boone…..two for one…..actually free for the taking.
I think Sig would’ve already been a GM if he wanted to be one. I think he likes being in the background doing the analytical work and not being the face of the org.
It’s so obvious Soto is going back to DC after next season.
Will depend on whether or not they are willing to pay him.
If that happens the Nationals will surely change their name to the “PadNats”.
How about PatNads?
Padionals
Braves don’t pay more than $22mil a year. Look it up. Fried’ll be on the block.
That definitely went to the wrong place… and is in response to something else. sorry.
Not the Nadres?
Wash Diego
Soto to the Mariners for Miller and kelenic
Hard no.
It’d take more than that.
Something to the effect of
1 of Miller or Woo
Gabriel Gonzalez
Tyler Locklear
Taylor Dollard
Ty Adcock
Jimmy Joyce
Doubt that for one year of Soto…
Padres make Soto available there will be plenty of suitors. Which drives up the price.
Gonzalez is ranked #66 in top 100
Locklear is Seattle’s #11 in Seattle’s system
Dollard is # 21
Adcock is # 22
Joyce is #28
Based on mlb website rankings.
A young controllable sp, a top 100 player outside top 50, and 4 guys ranked 10 or lower in your system- 3 lower than 20- (depending who you are) isn’t that much of an overpay for 1 year of one of the best offensive players in the game who you can either extend early (best case scenario) or recoup a draft pick and draft slot money via QO (worst case scenario).
Padres make Soto available they’ll walk away with a young sp, at least 1 top 100 prospect, and 2-4 guys ranked somewhere between 5 and 30 in a system. Depending who the acquiring team is.
No way he returns so much. One year? Pass without a window to first negotiate which Board will never allow.
We gave up Abrams, Gore and Wood. Unless we get something comparable back no reason to trade Soto. And don’t try it with “You’re going to lose him after 2024 is the reason!” We were always going to lose him after 2024. If Preller cared about that he wouldn’t have traded anything for Soto at all.
The trade was steep because of the time you could have him for. Remember what Boston got for Betts? AV and Wong are nice players but they weren’t a superstar in the making. The return was minimized by dumping 50% of Price but that’s still a significant factor. If Preller included cash to pay towards 24, that might increase the return.
Look at the other players that were available that offseason in FA. This season there is Ohtani and Bellinger. That is it.
Look at the 5 prospects the Dodgers gave up for 2 months of Machado. Soto will get a better return by a bunch.
In addition to Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger, there are plenty of other players available this off-season. For example, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and maybe Corbin Burnes who, like Soto, has one year left in his contact (same for Brandon Woodruff).
Even though Soto is 5.6 WAR for 2023 and Corbin Burnes is 3.6 WAR for 2023, there are several teams laser-focused on enahncing starting pitching like the division-champion Dodgers who finished 18 full games ahead of the Padres.
This does not even count Jorge Soler, JD Martinez, Josh Bell and Rhys Hoskins. Plus Imanaga, Takahashi, and Jung-Hoo Lee.
Padres aren’t getting all that back for 1 year vs 2.5 years. If the padres can get .3 to .5 of that back they would consider it. If they can’t extend him .
Those bottom guys have very little value. They aren’t near soto’s star level. They will not hamper a Soto deal.
The return was minimized by dumping 50% of Price
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As well as the difference between one playoff run and three playoff runs. That’s huge.
A young sp
A top 50-100 prospect
A decent mid level prospect
And 3 lottery tickets
Isn’t exactly “a lot”
Do people just look at 6 names and ignore prospect evaluators and stuff?
It’s either that or the age old “trade us your player for less than they’re worth take this junk instead”
I didn’t know that Snell or Yamamoto were hitters. Its the worst FA market for hitters in a generation.
Look at what the Dodgers gave up to get Betts while having to take on Price’s contract. The Padres will get at a minimum a young, controllable, good MLB player, an MLB ready top 100 overall prospect, and some other prospects lower in the top 30. That is IF they decide to trade Soto. HE is not coming cheap.
For the Soto triplets, yes, that would be acceptable.
Oh, you mean for just Juan Soto? Wildly amusing. You jape, friend!
Webby
The Dodgers gave up more for Josh Fields than for Machado
In hindsight maybe. You really think they trade Yordan for anything at all if they knew what he would become?
That is not what you said before. May have been what you meant but not what you said
Rinse lather repeat
Not what I said? I’m not websoulsurfer. He may have like a dozen different usernames but I am not one of them. He actually muted me, the coward.
Machado was a 2-month rental and they gave up 5 prospects including a top 100 prospect that was hitting .314/.428/.477 in AA and that the Dodgers spent $31 million to sign, plus two pitchers which are playing in the majors this season. A league average starter and a reliever with 100 games and a 3.94 career ERA.
That trade in 2016 was for an unranked prospect who had not played a game in a Dodgers uniform at any level for a reliever the Dodgers needed.
3 Juan sotos is worth
1 young sp
1 top 50-100 prospect
1 decent prospect
3 lottery tickets?
Right. If youre gonna troll. Do a better job.
Legendary
While I disagree with many of your posts, and vice versa, my reply was not directed to you
Webby had said weak free agent market
He then revised to say weak free agent hitters market
Agree makes no sense. They traded for a 3 year post season window and invested heavily in the roster. To trade him now they are telling the players and fans this is now a rebuild. His agent was always taking him to free agency and anyone trading for him now won’t be able to extend him
Players are routinely traded for less than was given up to acquire them. It makes no sense for the Padres to reset in 2024. It’s just impossible to do with all the aging vets on fat deals.
@BrianStrowman9 Oh yeah? Like who?
Is that too much for a player who has one year left on his contract? If you can sign long term, than YES! Otherwise he is a rental and I say Woo and Two Minor Leaguers…..With One being a Top 5 prospect in our system.
Signing him long term doesn’t make a difference. He has one year of control left, that is what an acquiring team is trading for. Trading for him is not a prerequisite for signing him.
Of course it is as you will certainly consider giving up more if you know what it will take to sign him long term and are willing to do so. Otherwise your praying for success or in late July are dealing him again to limit your losses. Imagine Boras smiling if that happens with then no compensation attached. $$$.
There is no value in “knowing what it will take to sign him long term.” Soto will get paid. Players of his kind are supposed to get paid. Why would a team want to give up prospects on top of that? Just wait until after 2024 and then pay him whatever the cost may be.
More like Mariners give us Ty France and Andres Muñoz back and also George Kirby, Gabriel Gonzalez and Emerson Hancock.
Mariners would have to include Woo and another major league player because they don’t have the top prospects close to the major leagues.
Woo, Kelenic, Berroa and a lottery ticket like Martinez maybe.
That’s not even 1/3 of what it would take web. They didn’t acquire Soto to flip him for 20 cents on the dollar a year later with no title to show for it.
I are with you that they won’t, but maybe they should.
If the Mariners don’t sign Shohei they should definitely trade for Soto. Bryce Miller and one prospect ranked 1-3 in their system, plus one prospect ranked 4-10 in their system, and one prospect ranked 11-20. This may require a third team because most M’s prospects are very young or just drafted.
Another in a very long line of delusional Mariners fans…. Geez
Yup mine was a bad take. I should have thought about it for more than 5 seconds.
SD won’t be getting 5 years of Miller for one year of Soto. Seattle traded a good RP to get a the 2.8 bWAR Teoscar from TO.
@hllywdjff Even Kelenic is too much for Soto.
The Mariners have him for 5 more years, and he’s already a 2.0 WAR player in 2/3 of a season.
Even if he disappoints and averages just 3 WAR a season for the next five seasons, that’s fully 3x what Soto is likely to put up in 2024.
And he could drop to 1.5 wins a season as a 400 PA CFer who never really gets the bat going—and he’s still at least as valuable as the 2024 version of Juan Soto. It’s the perfect “heads we lose, tails we break even” trade for the Mariners.
I don’t see any reason why we couldn’t trade for him and then sign him long-term…
MLB used to give teams a 72 hour window to work out a long-term deal for a trade target. Makes a lot of sense. Did that disappear in the last MLBPA contract?
It’s crazy how even though this is a written article, you can tell from the syntax and diction of his statements that Preller LOVES the sound of his own voice. The atypical Achilles heel of any bad leader of any organization. Happens across America.
Preller has been like that since the day he was hired.
I’ve never cared for FO people like that. They’ll have a good year once in a while but it’s always someone else fault.
He’s even worse than Mark Shapiro.
You can learn all you need to know about the guy by looking at him & listening to him talk once. There are a ton of sports executives & coaches like that. The self-promotion is pretty critical to their personal success, especially when it’s targeted at a willing mark. A lot of people interpret confidence & suave as signs of ability.
Preller’s biggest mistake was signing every top player Cohen didn’t. The Pads got to the nlcs last year. If it ain’t broke…
It wasn’t broke and he added more good players to it. The problem wasn’t Preller. If was management. You notice that PRELLER was doing the press conference, not Seidler. That means they have 100% confidence in him, and Melvin was called on the carpet.
Happens across America.
=======================
And it absolutely never, ever happens anywhere else.
Soto to the Braves.
Would make probably the best lineup in baseball history.
Oh, I’m sure the Pads would allow the Bravos to swap them a bag of stale peanuts from Jimmy Carter’s farm for the privilege. Somehow I don’t think this will be a Fred McGriff trade 2.0.
Braves have 53 and 100 on recent top 100.
I wouldn’t trade Soto for those 2
I’d say it takes maybe a 20 and a 50.
I hope they don’t trade him unless things look bad at trade deadline.
Going to take a lot more than that to get Soto. A MLB player that is young and controllable and a top 100 prospect that is MLB ready, not some kid in A ball.
The Padres need starting pitching and an OF to replace Soto. Start there.
Braves have good OF in Harris that is cost controlled and put up a 3.4 WAR, and a couple of young pitchers that might fit the bill. Smith-Shawver or Waldrep.
Braves fans might not like that, but it’s going to hurt to get Soto, especially in a season where there are only 2 good bats in FA and not many trade targets either.
Young, yes. Controllable, no. Soto is a rental next year
Young and controllable is what the Padres will get in return for Soto. Look at what the Dodgers gave up for 1 year of Betts while taking on half of Price’s contract. A top 35 overall prospect that had just put up a 3+ WAR, another top 50 overall prospect that was close to MLB ready, and their #14 prospect.
Soto won’t have Price attached if the Padres decide to trade him and he will get more than that in trade because of the barren FA market for hitters.
I misread your original post, thanks for the clarification @websoulsurfer
By numerous statistics they already had the best lineup in baseball history.
Exactly, they don’t need Soto. He’s not worth their two top prospects since the Braves need pitching in the future.
Also saying Soto is not worth the Braves top 2 prospects is stupid. It’s one year and his arb raise will probably put him over $32 million. He’s not worth any teams top 2 prospects at this point.
Soto for Harris, Waldrep, and 3 others in the Braves top 30?
Probably just Harris and Waldrep or Smith-Shawver.
The Braves would not trade Harris for Soto straight up. Harris is a premium defender and cost controlled for at least five more years. Soto is a rental who is essentially a DH playing the field.
I agree. No one is trading Harris’ projected maybe 30 WAR on a $62M/7 contract, with two affordable option years, for one year of a 5.6 WAR Soto.
Not even remotely close.
Your math is wrong. His projected WAR is 24 over the next 7 seasons. He was a #65 prospect at his peak.
Verdugo, who was a top 35 prospect at his peak, put up a 3.0 WAR in 106 games before he was traded for Betts. His projected WAR was 20 over the next 5 seasons at the time of the trade.
The Dodgers also took on $48 million of Price’s contract and gave up another MLB top 50 prospect in AA and their #14 prospect.
As I posted at the time, I thought Verdugo straight-up for Betts was fair value. The only reason that LAD threw in Downs is that Lux was ticketed for 2B.
And I also don’t care what LAD gave up. They were rich in prospects and Verdugo & Downs were blocked. Other teams won’t make the same stretch.
But Atlanta is not giving up 7 years of Harris for one year of Soto. It won’t even be entertained.
Then we will keep him.
Verdugo was the starting RF for the Dodgers. Definitely not blocked. Seager had 2 years left on his deal and their 2B was Kike. Downs was not blocked. He was in AA with only Seager or Kike ahead of him on the depth chart.
If the Braves wanted Soto, and I don’t think they do, that is what it would take. Harris would be a requirement since they don’t have an MLB ready top 100 prospect that is an OF.
@Joe Brady
Not often I disagree but the idea of throwing in Downs out of some kind of convenience because Lux was blocking him confuses me…
Would you not just trade him elsewhere for – as an example – RP?
Verdugo was the starting RF for the Dodgers.
=======================
Betts
Of course, but it is always easier to shop at a place that an excess on hand. If the Dodgers offered Verdugo & Wong, for example, and the RS asked for Downs instead, the GM has to weigh not getting Betts against the value that Downs might have in a different trade.
He was right, prior to the trade Verdugo was the starting RF for the Dodgers.
Of course, but since Betts was going to RF, Verdugo was blocked.
Verdugo was the starter for the Dodgers. Betts was the starter for the Red Sox. If Verdugo wasn’t in the deal, there was no trade. He wasn’t blocked.
If Verdugo wasn’t in the deal, there was no trade.
===========================
Of course they could’ve made a trade. The LAD had a great farm. They could’ve easily have substituted Smith, May, Urias, or maybe Gonsolin would’ve been better values than Verdugo.
Soto won’t be the only one they deal. They have to.
Who else are they going to deal? No one is going to trade for any of the crazy long deals. Tatis is probably too much of a wild card for a team to trade for that massive contract. The most valuable player without an insane contract they could deal (not named Soto) is probably Ha-Seong Kim. It would be a good time to move him too since his value might never be higher.
Ha-Seong Kim to Seattle for a SP.
Yes! For Woo?
Padres play in the Korea series to open 2024. If there is one player they absolutely won’t trade, its Kim.
Reds comments without even reading the article. Every time.
Tatis would be the easiest guy on the team to trade. Cost controlled. 5.5 WAR in a season he missed the 1st 3 weeks of and returning from 3 surgeries and over a year off. 29 other teams would jump on the opportunity.
PED SUSPENSION. NOT SURGERIES.
Yeah 5.5 at 24 coming off of major surgeries and not playing in 18 months. His aav is 24m a year for the next 12 years. Contract is over at 35, tatis has the most value of any padre right now including Soto. It’s not even close…can day his problems but just finished a year he played every single game in since his suspension:
Tatis had 3 surgeries. Two on his wrist and one on his shoulder.
Caps lock makes you look worse when you get it wrong.
If Tatis is traded, would the Padres take a few Angels retreads and never weres for him? Please?
LMAO. No. I kinda doubt the Angels could put together a deal that would bag them Tatis.
One of Korea’s very best, in his prime by age and production, and the Mets couldn’t cough up the roughly 4/32m it cost to get him. Jaysus.
Please explain *why* “they have to”…
they’ll extend Soto, sign Nola and Snell, and Eguy leads the league in hitting.
Why would they offer arbitration to Nola. Wasn’t he out most of the year and just plain awful when he did play?
Haha, ….the AS SP bro
I think they are referring to Aaron Nola for the rotation.
Pretty sure he is talking about Aaron Nola the pitcher, not his older brother the catcher. Austin Nola is still having issues seeing, so sadly his career might be over.
Since it was a thread about the Padres I didn’t even think about his brother. He is a FA so that makes sense.
I really like Eguy. He spent a 10-15 minutes talking with my wife in Spanish about hitting in spring training. I could only understand about every 4th or 5th word. At least I think it was about hitting.
He could be a great utility guy. Has the quickness to play OF if needed and plays good D in the infield. Probably hit .260 or so with a .730-.740 OPS.
Oh he was hitting alright. On her!
=P
She is old enough to be his mom, but is still pretty hot. She might have been hitting on him. lol
I’ll take “Things that didn’t happen” for $500 Alex.
Why do you continue to say stupid stuff like that even though it’s been thoroughly debunked?
Padres don’t have to trade anyone. The owner of the team, the guy who makes the actual decision on what it will be, has said that payroll in 2024 will be about what it was this season.
As of today, it’s at $174 million including ALL the arbitration raises like Soto, Grisham, Nola, Barlow, etc… Add Carpenter and it’s still under $180 million. If they re-sign Wacha, Lugo, and Martinez they are still only around $210 million.
Add Lee and Yamamoto on top of that and they are around $240 million.
Subtract Grisham, Nola, Hill, and Barlow from trades or being non-tendered and they save $22 million they can spend on a backup catcher like Sanchez, who will get a small raise over the $1.5 million he made in 2023, and some middle relievers who are historically pretty cheap.
As of today, it’s at $174 million including ALL the arbitration raises like Soto, Grisham, Nola, Barlow, etc…
=========================
About $240M in salaries alone. You failed to include arbitration raises.
Add in Hosmer, and the fringes and related, it will be close to $260M.
Wrong again Joe. Its $174.1 million INCLUDING arbitration raises, all pre-arbitration salaries, and Hosmer.
baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/san-diego-padres-…
Preller is going to go buck-wild at the ’25-’26 Winter Meetings looking to dump some of that wild Arb class!
Okay, if you are excluding all the option players, then you are closer. But:
1-Carp is almost definite to pick up his option, so add $5.5M.
2-The arbitration salaries are off by $14-15M.
3-They used a cash flow figure for Tatis, Machado and Cro, If you use the AAV, add another $31M.
If you add back points 1-3, and $21M for fringes & related, then you are at ~$246M, and that does not include Martinez, Wacha & Lugo opting out.
Are you talking about CBT payroll or just 26 man payroll Joe?
The Padres 26 man payroll is about $174 million including projected arbitration raises and the guys that haven’t reached arbitration yet. That also includes the money owed to Hosmer. It does not include any of the options, team or player. baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/san-diego-padres-…
Their CBT payroll includes everyone on the 40 man roster, plus things like per diem. benefits, and retirement payments the team has to make.
So have to make sure you are discussing apples vs apples.
Carpenter will definitely opt in at $5.5 million. Martinez will probably opt in at $8 million. If he doesn’t he won’t get more in FA so maybe a year added to back end or another player option? Lugo and Wacha probably both want 3 year deals and will get $10-12 million AAV. Add Sanchez at $3-5 million and the Padres are at about $210-215 million. That is in line with BR;s $216 million including options.
If the Pads are able to add Lee he is going to be $10-12 million AAV according to all I have been reading, so that is $220-225 million or a bit more.
Add Yamamoto or another starter for $20 million and they are at $240-$245 million. Add in another couple of million just to be safe.
Add in the rest of the 40 man salaries, benefits, etc… and their CBT payroll is at about $260-265 million for 2024.
Shoot, didn’t take into account the possible arbitration salaries that could be dumped in trade or non-tender
According to MLBTR today that is about $17 million for Grisham (4.9), Hill(2.4), Nola (2.4), and Barlow (7.1).
So cut that $260-265 million by whatever you think the Padres are going to do about those 4 players.
If they cut both Barlow and Hill they will have to add some middle relievers, so it could end up being about the same amount.
Just to make it more straightforward:
Under contract-(MM, FT, X, Yu, Musgrove, Cro, Suarez, & Kim) $148.99
Arbitration eligilble-per MLB-R $50.65
Carpenter $5.5
Fringes, etc $21
Total #239.14M
That’s without Snell, Wacha, Lugo, Martinez and Hader. A couple of guys might settle slightly under the projected arb, but the difference would be de minimis. If you want a team similar to 2023, I don’t see how you can come in under $300M CBT.
OF course they used ACTUAL salaries being paid in 2024. BR is talking about what the actual 26 man payroll will be.
That is the difference between talking about the CBT payroll and the 26 man payroll.
You are correct about the arb numbers. $33 million for Soto, which is more than was projected to start the season, plus $17 million for the rest is $50 million.
So instead of $174 including all arb eligible and other salaries, its $198-199 million.
That does make a difference. They may only be able to add ONE of Lugo and Wacha while still adding Lee and Yamamoto. Nothing else changes.
You are trying to mix apples and oranges. Doesn’t work.
BR and everyone else including Acee in his stupid claims is talking about actual payroll for 2024. Not CBT payroll. No one actually KNOWS what CBT payroll is until after the season when MLB and the union release costs for benefits, etc…
BR got everything other than arb costs on the money. As they say, the estimate it based on average costs and its about $14-15 million higher.
That puts the Padres with all the team or player options exercised and all the arbitration raises paid at $231-232 million. That is Wacha and Martinez at $16 million, Lugo at $7.5 million, and Carpenter at $5.5 million.
NO one thinks that Wacha or Martinez will get that much and everyone thinks Lugo will get $10-12 million. So Wacha at $12, Martinez at $8 and Lugo at $10 as projected and the Padres are right at that $231-232. million while retaining all of those pitchers.
Still a ton of room under the $275.5 million they were at this year and where Seidler said 2024 payroll would be. Still plenty of room under the $260 million I believe they will end up at. Might even be enough to sign Lee, Yamamoto, and Sanchez even if they don’t trade or non-tender Grisham, Nola, Barlow, and Hill.
Because he is stupid?
Soto’s gonna have a hell of a walk year with the RF porch at Camden Yards.
As an A’s fan I am happy Bob Melvin is managing anywhere other than Oakland.
Leo. Get a grip.
“It’s no surprise they were in the hot seat”
apparently they were not
“he didn’t blame his manager for everything that went wrong”
where did he blame his manager publicly for anything that went wrong?
He didn’t blame Mel;vin for anything even though he had reason to throw him under the bus.
Seidler said in July that Preller’s job was secure and that Melvin was a great manager. Not sure WTH they are thinking saying they were on the hot seat.
Seidler is a long-term thinker. Not a reactionary. Maybe garbage like that gets more clicks than just reporting what the owner says will happen.
Going to be another epic battle with the Mets for the offseason World Series. Go Preller!
The Padres / Preller soap opera is in it’s 9th year. Juicy signings and trades; can’t miss superstar prospects that have to be traded for other teams to finish off because the Padres can’t……and most wind up as decent players but nothing very special.
The Padres are run like a southern Medicine Show. Customers pay for the song-and-dance, but unless cocaine is in the bottle the customer overpaid for the sizzle. It works until the customers pull back and wait for a real product to appear.
Not a big Melvin fan, but surprised he’s staying. All he’s got working with him is Ruben Niebla.
It appears that juicy trades by the Padres will be happening yet again this offseason. Preller is great for that and is an MLBTR writers and posters favorite. However, in the 2024 season the DBacks will be the non-glitzy NL West team that was methodically put together by their front office to challenge the Dodgers.
Preller is the king of “winning the off-season”, maybe he should be GMing a winter league team?
The Padres know how to put butts in seat at home how many sellouts did they have and what was there overall attendance numbers, they had this planned out after the 22 season. Soto was only going to be on this team for two years, they were not going to pay him the numbers he wanted. it was a go for it and if we don’t make it tear it down a little and remodel the team and get ready for another run in 26 season.
With Seidler’s committed payroll, they don’t need to wait for 2026
Amazing that the Padres reupped Machado for another decade for 330m and Yu Darvish for his arm surgery phase, but somehow don’t appear to have made the 24 yo Soto a serious offer.
I’m sure they have been speaking to get an idea if he wants to be here. There are many reports that they have spoken. I’m sure once they have a true idea that he would except a deal they will offer him one.
Preller will set fire to anything in his reach to keep his job. It’s what he has done since 2020 and it surely is going to be his strategy for 2024.
I love Peter Seidler as an owner, but he is one stupid SOB for keeping Preller in charge.
You love him as an owner but he’s a stupid SOB for his actions as an owner?
Brew88 yes, he is clearly committed to winning as an owner, but it’s like Preller is his weak spot. Seidler doesn’t see Preller’s track record for what it is. I hope Seidler someday sees the light and moves on
A billionaire who made his money by being incredibly smart with investing money and whose GM has put together a team that made the playoffs twice in 4 years after not going at all since 2006 and drew 3.2 million fans and whose team has already sold out 2024 season tickets. A GM who helped that team go from bottom 3 in revenue to top 14 in revenue.
Yeah, that is one stupid SOB.
How could he be so stupid and such an SOB? Wish we could use emoticons, because the rolling over laughing one would be so apropos.
Interesting. The week is now over and Lindsey Hill never re-filed her lawsuit against Trevor Bauer.
Actually, her lawyer did. Motion for Contempt Arising out of Subpoena in Case No. 8:22-cv-00868 in the United States District Court, Central District of California, Southern Division
Nope. Check the timestamp on that motion. That is from about 2 weeks before the lawsuits were dropped and concerns one of the other accusers (whom Hill had subpoenaed, referred to in the court docs as “M.R.”) not complying with the subpoena. Has nothing to do with anything being re-filed against Bauer or against him violating any terms of any settlement. Although thanks for tipping me off to the fact that there appeared to have been some internal strife among the accusers.
law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/calif…
I hadn’t seen that before you mentioned it and it doesn’t say (or have much at all to do with) what you claim it says. But it is interesting regardless.
When the Padres made the deal to get Soto from Washington, they knew what he was going to ask for after the 23 season through arbitration, they also figured what it was going to cost to keep him from Free Agency after the 24 season. So, after they signed Bogarts and re-sign Machada they were not going to give Soto what he wants, they knew they had a 2-year window with Soto to win a World Championship. They went for it and didn’t make it now the time to trade Soto, restock the farm system then make another go at it in 2026.
The Pads farm is already restocked, it’s top 10 in baseball again
You’re correct that when they made the trade for Soto that they fully understood what it would cost to pay him. But going for it doesn’t mean giving up half way there. Like Snell and Hader did in 2023, Soto will play his last year for Pads in 2024 and they will try to contend, because that’s why they made the trade in the first place.
Not only is the farm system good, 11 of the top 14 are ended the season in AA or above.
If you have a chance, go watch Marsee and Pauley play in the AFL. Both have a legitimate chance to be in the majors by the end of 2024 and they are ranked 11 and 12 in the Padres system. I especially like Pauley’s swing. Short, compact with decent power. He has a great eye and makes solid contact when the ball is in the zone. Not much swing and miss in his game.
Graham Austin Pauley looks great, Rd 13, rapidly developing and could see MLB next season but Eguy might be an obstacle. Will try not to hold it against him that he’s a Dukey
Pauley is playing LF in the AFL. Rosario will get time in SD when injuries hit for sure. He is a good player. Not a star, but a solid performer.
Are you a Tarheel?
Web – there are LOTS of BB fans that they are anti-Duke across the country.
UCLA, that’s enough of a rivalry
Yeah there was zero chance that preller will as going to be fired. Maybe small chance Melvin went:
then make another go at it in 2026.
==================================
Just the opposite. They 92 wins on the Py W/L. While they are significantly overpriced, it is nowhere near hopeless.
If Seidler didn’t object to a $300M payroll in 2023, he should object to it in 2024. If they sign Lee, and trade Grisham for value, it should be at least a minimal improvement in 2024, and maybe a good bit better in the future.
And they still have some money to replace some of the talent that is leaving.
Why $300M is too high for that level of talent, it should still be a 90-win team. They can figure out Soto at the trade deadline or after the season.
Why would the Padres need to restock the farm system. Its top 10 and most of their best prospects ended up in AA. Come on down to the AFL and watch their 2nd tier prospects tearing the league up against the best of the best. Marsee, Pauley, Martorella.
In case you cant make it to Phonenix, here is how they are doing so far.
mlb.com/arizona-fall-league/stats/
Padres farm system is just fine and is about to get even better in January when they are expected to sign Leo DeVries.
Phoenix. Wish I could blame that on something other than not being able to type well.
You move Soto for a starting pitcher and Center Fielder.
The players, coaches and Preller underachieved in fulfilling ownership goal to provide a “championship-caliber team”. I have no reason not to believe Seidler when he says that is the goal in 2024 as well as long term. The best team in 2024 will be one with Soto on opening day roster, instead of two prospects, or a mediocre pitcher and cf. As long as they are willing to maintain one of the highest payrolls in mlb, they will be buyers not sellers.
Sure, because teams will be delighted to trade a decent starting CFer and a MOR SP for one year of Juan Soto.
You mean like MacKenzie Gore and Robert Hassell III?
Just trying to figure the comments here. Their POBO says his first job this offseason is to sit down with Soto and try to get an extension done and suddenly everyone is trying to say he’s being traded to fill in the blank. Not sure I understand why.
Most likely the Padres lock him up for 13 or 14 years. That seems to be their SOP.
If Soto IS traded in a season where there is just 1 great hitter, Ohtani, and one position player that had a rebound, Bellinger, and that is ALL the decent FA, it’s going to be expensive to get him. Think a young, controllable MLB player that plays OF or pitches, a Top 100 prospect that is MLB ready, and 3-4 other guys in your team’s top 30.
In any other season he likely would have cost less but there are just no bats available and other than Ohtani there is no one close to as good as he is. Soto had a 158 OPS+ and 5.6 WAR. Bellinger a 133 OPS+ and 4.4 WAR. 22% better OPS+ and WAR. The next highest FA is a 119 OPS+ and 3.1. 35% higher OPS+ and 45% higher WAR.
The Angels and about 6-7 other teams don’t even have the pieces to make a trade like that happen.
Did you read the last paragraph? Of course he is going to try and extend Soto, but he doesn’t sound too confident that will happen. It sounds like he could be traded. 45% chance he’s traded, 45% chance they keep him for 2024, 10% he gets extended. Those are the odds in my opinion.
Did YOU read what Seidler actually said? He said that the Padres would stay the course next season and that payroll would be close to what it was in 2-23/ He is the owner of the team. I think he knows what he is going to do better than the writers, especially Acee.
Did you read what Preller actually said? I will give you a hint. It was NOT that he was going to trade Soto. Quite the opposite.
The WRITER made an assumption that because Preller wouldn’t rule out trading Soto, that he WOULD trade him. No good GM, and Preller is a good one, would say “there is no way we are trading this guy”. What you hear from good GM’s is that if the price is right anyone is available in trade.
What the article included was that Preller actually said that “his first move will be to discuss an extension with the three-time All-Star”. Rumors in San Diego are that Seidler has already spoken with Soto about it and now Preller needs to hammer out the details with him and his agent.
That Soto bought the land next door to Manny Machado and custom built a $15 million house with a view of Petco across the bay is a pretty good indication that he plans to stay.
Go on back to your always penny-pinching Reds threads and let people that actually follow the Padres discuss this one. You apparently have no clue other than what you read in this article.
Soto has said he loves it here in San Diego. Padres have said they want to extend him. It just sounds like they need to agree on a price which of course won’t be way to do but of all the teams that have been paying and even over paying for stars it’s the padres. So don’t be surprised if a deal gets done in the next month:
websoulsurfer and outinleftfield are the same guy!
Soto not only loves it here, he built a $15 million home next door to Machado.
If you sa his whole statement: the question was will you consider trading Soto. He said we don’t take anything off the board. That’s just the way we operate but our priority is to extend Soto.
So yes could they trade him sure. He also said I wouldn’t read much into trading him. The padres will go all in trying to extend Soto. If they fail then they may be able willing to trade him if someone blows them away.
That is a pretty good breakdown of what it would cost to get Soto in trade. I do think the Angels could make a trade for him, but they wouldn’t like it because it would probably mean giving up Detmers, O’Hoppe, and another MLB player. They just don’t have the prospects.
I am wondering how many people understand what SOP is? I think you hit the nail on the head about Soto’s value if the Padres do decide to trade him this offseason.
I think the Pads are far more likely to add a couple of younger pieces to the puzzle like Lee and possibly Yamamoto and trade or cut ties with a few guys that for whatever reasons don’t seem to be getting the job done like Grisham, Nola, and Hill.
Padres:
The laughing stock of mlb.
The Kershaw Curse lives…forever
Who did they beat last season to get to the NLCS?
what’s the kershaw curse? Padres have been trash at several points long before, as well as during, Kershaw’s career
I thought the Kershaw curse was a long- standing playoff thing unrelated or not specific to the Padres?
Earlier this year the Padres beat the Dodgers at Petco Park and after they closed out the ninth they put a “Crying Kershaw” meme on the Jumbotron. The Padres then proceeded to go on a long losing streak. I think that’s what dodgerblue58 was talking about.
Yeah I know, and I was at that game. Sad video. But let’s not usurp one long-standing curse with another under the same title is all I’m saying.
Or we call it Kershoctober
The Padres need to re-sign Blake Snell who wants to remain in San Diego, and add an outfielder who can hit. Grisham is their 4th outfielder and late inning defensive replacement guy. They should re-sign Juan Soto to a long term deal.
The Yankees have shortstops, Preller! DJL, Gleyber Torres, Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Cabrera. Take them all for Soto.
Lol
Soto $500 Mil 15 years ?
Yeah I think 500m over is the magic number to get him to sign this offseason. Boras/Soto I bet are wanting 13/500 but you would think they should be able to spread in out over 14 or 15 years to get that 500m.
@JayRyder Why would you? He’s a 5 WAR :LFer who should DH, who’ll be 25 in 2024. Trout, Betts, and Judge in their best years are worth twice that, and as good as he is Soto’s upside is limited by his poor defense at an easy position to fill. He’s also not a real power hitter. That’s a lot of limitations for a guy you might give half a billion to.
Ha-Seong Kim’s been just as valuable over the last two years. Marcus Semien’s been a lot more valuable.
The Yankees were wondering if the Padres would be so kind as to take on the remaining contract of Giancarlo Stanton. Seems like a perfect fit!!! Yankees might give you Cabrera and Gleyber to grease the deal thru…sounds like a win-win to me!
Rarely does a completely revamped team mix well the first year. But, the 23 Padres weren’t revamped either. The Padres are built with mostly individual players and a very few team players mixed in.
Both Bob Melvin & Juan Soto are overrated. Get rid of Melvin and trade Soto to the Yankees, as they like to take on underperforming and overpaid players.
Soto and Cronenworth for Verdugo, Anthony, Houck, and Dalbec.
Try and lock Verdugo up for 3-4 years, Dalbec comes in and platoons at 1B/DH (resign Cooper), and Houck steps into the Martinez swing man roll.
Bring in Justin Turner
Resign Wacha.
Give Snelling a shot to make the rotation in ST.
Consider Bauer on a prove it deal.
Move Tatis to CF, and get whatever you can for Grisham (preferably pitching/LH OF bat.
Lineup is:
Kim 2B
Tatis CF
Machado 3B
Bogearts SS
Turner DH
Dalbec/Cooper 1B
Campusano C
Verdugo RF
Profar/Azocar LF
Padres: Shaves 15-20m of payroll..makes the lineup a lot deeper, gives the Pads a young, controllable OF who should be ready by May ‘25, and addresses pitching depth.
Sox: Get their superstar, and Cronenworth helps figure out the IF situation..as he can play anywhere on the dirt.
Padres are not signing Bauer, smelling will not earn a spot on the rotation at 19. So the pitching staff you have would be terrible. With at best slight upgrade in the order and I do mean slight.
Snelling dominated at 3 different levels last year, and could possibly be ready with a strong spring. (PS-He’ll be 20 in December)
Someone will most likely sign Bauer after everything that’s recently come out..why not the Padres on a heavily discounted deal?
Musgrove, Darvish, Wacha, Bauer, and Snelling (assuming he’s ready) would be a better rotation than probably 80% of mlb..although they’d need to add depth over injury concerns.
Then they could focus on signing a back end guy or two..or give Avila a shot..as he did well last year in that roll.
Snelling is not ready. He may get a call up later in the season, but Waldron. Avila, and Morejon would get starts before he ever does.
Bauer will never get another job in MLB. The PR hit would be too devastating. He will finish his contract in Japan and that will be the last anyone sees of him.
Include Alex Jacob and Drew Carlton, Jay Groome and Knehr in that group.
I thought Knehr had Tommy John. Guess I should check that.
His surgery was real early so maybe after AS break.
His skills have waned, that’s one good reason
No they haven’t. ERA under 3 in Japan
Japan
ERA under 3
K/9 way down from his career in MLB
ERA under 3. What is the starting pitcher’s only job?
Maybe he’ll learn to pitch in Japan rather than throw, and bring that to MLB. I wonder if we’ll ever know?
I like most of what you propose. Hadn’t previously considered Verdugo, but he’s a great thought. Unfortunately, I still like Grisham’s rock solid defense and would prefer the Pads keep him. I agree on Bauer, too. Given that I don’t care for Soto, I’d prefer he go a team I don’t follow: Mariners, Dodgers, Nationals, Mets … .
Tatis is eventually gonna move to CF eventually. Why not deal just Grish while he’s still got some value, and go ahead and make the move? He could bring back at least a mid range arm..
Not even CLOSE to enough. Red Sox just don’t have the players to make a trade happen unless they include Bello and that is not going to happen. Their biggest need is pitching.
Bauer will never be a MLB player again, let alone a Padre.
To address the 100 or so posts:
1-There is almost no chance of Soto getting traded. I don’t think either Seidler or Preller roll that way.
2-Soto, in any case, won’t get half of what some SD fans think he is worth. He is a one-year 5.6 WAR player getting paid maybe $30M.
3-I’m not sure why no one mentions it, but the Padres don’t need to extend him. He’s a fine player, but hard-hitting LFers aren’t that rare a commodity. And even at today’s prices, you’d be surprised at how far $30M will go towards replacing a 5.6 player. Without seeing a single AB from Lee, I’d make a decent-sized wager that Lee’s WAR/$$$ will exceed Soto at the end of their respective contracts.
Soto is not a must-sign for SD.
If he’s not a must resign as you say, then he’s a must trade. He has too much value not to. Even 1 top 50, and a couple other decent prospects would probably do the trick.
Re-read Joe’s post……
Soto is a one-year rental at a high salary. He doesn’t have as much “value” as you think, and surely will not bring a “haul”.
The best shot the Padres have of trading him is at the deadline to a contending team that for whatever reason needs a big LH bat. Yet that can be a problem as the Padres may want to get his salary off the books before the season starts.
Then again, knowing the Padres / Preller they may well give him $550m-plus to sign long-term. It’s the fans that don’t care for him (at his salary); the FO seems to love him.
So what do you consider a lot? Because I could definitely see something like Verdugo, Houck, Anthony, and Dalbec being worth it for both sides.
I wouldn’t do it, and wouldn’t think too long on it either. The markup on Soto replacing Verdugo, based on last year’s production, is 5.6 v 2.6. The addition of 3 bWAR, plus an additional $21-22M in salary, isn’t worth 4 years of Houck and 6 years of Anthony.
And if that wasn’t a problem, Soto is not putting us over the top. He’d be a better fit for the Phillies maybe. They have the pitching prospects that SD needs and are more in a win-now situation.
Because there’s a good chance they’ll lose him for nothing after this season, OR will have to tie up 500m more over the next 15 years. I like Soto, and would like to hang onto him..but at some point, they have to put the breaks on the spending, and they can significantly lengthen their lineup, and get some controllable young talent in to replace the production by dealing him. Remember what a black hole their lineup was after the 5 spot for most of last year? They only started winning after Campusano came back, and guys like Cooper were able to make the back third at least passable.
Not close. See my answer to Joe.
notSDHarry
No, another option is to just keep him and push for a title in 2024.
=====================
That’s the million $$$ answer. When you trade for a guy for three post-season runs, you don’t quit just because you didn’t win it in the first two years. The single team that Soto has the highest value for in 2024 is SD.
He doesn’t work nearly as well anywhere else except maybe Philly.
Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts. That is the entire list of OF that have been better over the past 3 seasons than Juan Soto. So, corner OF that are even close to Soto in talent level are a RARE commodity. Lee at age 25 is projected as an above average OF in the majors. A 55 on the scouting scale. Soto was a 65-70 at age 19 and if you were to grade him among MLB corner OF today at age 24 he would be an 80.
The Padres should and most likely will extend Soto.
As for potential trades Soto. The Padres will get as much or more than the Dodgers gave up when they traded for Betts. The Dodgers took on David Price and $48 million of his salary and still gave up their #1 prospect that had just put up a 3.0 WAR in 106 games, another top 50 overall prospect that was in AA, and their #14 ranked prospect.
People are trying to say the Padres won’t get much because Soto is a rental when history says otherwise.
Test
Soto bat and bat only is a perfect fit for the Yankees. His glove is not and the fact that he is not gonna be the one missing piece is another factor. One last note is if Stanton remains a Yankee Soto has no real spot long term because he is a below average defensive left fielder especially in Yankee stadium.
Saying all that his left handed bat is what the Yankees need.
Torres is on his last year. I think a trade that could help worked out is sending Torres, Outfield prospect Pereira, and two pitching prospects not named Thorpe.
Warren and Beeter both top 10 pitching prospects for the Yankees.
That’s 3 prospects and a young 2b in Torres who is one of the best offensive 2nd baseman in the game.
If San Diego wants the Yankees to take Cronesworth bad contract back than either prospect return is less or somehow Stanton who is owed close to what Cronesworth is owed is involved in the deal but that’s highly unlikely.
Just a thought
Padres would never do that and have no need at all for Torres. He is completely useless in this trade. The padres would want a top 50 prospect or two and or young good controllable players. Otherwise they will extend him or play out the season with him.
I am a big Roman Anthony fan, but Verdugo probably wants 5/75 to sign, Bobby Dalbec would probably be around as long and be as impactful as Will Middlebrooks was and Tanner Houck doesn’t bring much excitement to the equation.
I wouldn’t make that trade this offseason and would rather see what kind of monster season Soto has in store for his walk year. A 1000 OPS isn’t out of the equation.
Roman Anthony shares a lot of similarities to Robert Hassell III… I think a prospect of that caliber will be available at the deadline and the others don’t move the needle enough to worry about missing out on their additions. If Verdugo had 3 years of control that would definitely help make it look better.
Verdugo is in what should be his physical prime. While I don’t doubt he wants a fat, long-term deal, settling for something like 5 yrs/$75m would be locking himself into something that could be very low in just a year or two.
He has been a 102 and 100 OPS+ bat the past two years. That’s not the kind of players the Padres should be spending money on. He doesn’t have to fall much to be a bench player.
He also rarely strikes out, is a consistent .280/.335 ba/obp guy, and is at least capable of playing all 3 of positions. He’d be a perfect 7/8 hitter on a good team..and as for his contract? I see him getting more like 3-4 yrs, at 50-60m or so.
The Reds can offer Steer and India for Soto.
Not enough
Abbott and Steer for Grish, Soto and $10M to help pay for Soto’s Arb3.
1. No
2. Soto is in Arb 4 cuz he was a Super Two after 2020.
3. Padres certainly don’t have to eat $ to trade Soto.
The Padres and Brewers like to trade with each other. Perhaps the Padres could get Burnes for Soto, with each being in the same situation. There’s no way the Brewers would sign either of the 2 players after next season.
Why would the Brewers do that? If they were to trade Corbin it would be for players who aren’t yet in arb and nothing else.
Juan Soto at PETCO in 2023: 240 BA, 12 HRs. Soto at Petco in 2022: 204 BA, 2 HRs. Should the Pods extend him for $500M? No way.
I guess its a good thing that they play half their games on the road and he put up a 158 OPS+ with 35 HR overall. But thanks for trying to say something dumber than anyone else on the thread.
So you believe he is not worth more to a team that plays half its game in a park where his OPS is 2x that at Petco?
Thanks for doubling down on stupid. For his career Soto has hit better on the road.
Consig
Batting average and HR aren’t a good way to judge a players offense. Especially when they play in an offense suppressing stadium
He has a 133 wRC+ in San Diego as a Padre
Like I said before. It is impossible to trade Juan Soto without admitting that the first Juan Soto trade is in the same tier as the Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and Justin Upton trades.
That’s not a good thing by the way.
tlh
Or, you know, it could not be admitting that at all
Why on earth would it be admitting that?
Because if you are willing to give up Soto for less than half of what you gave up to get him and didn’t get a title out of it how can the first trade possibly be seen as anything other than a complete and total failure?
tlh
“Because if you are willing to give up Soto for less than half of what you gave up and didn’t get a title out of it how can the first trade possibly be seen as anything other than a complete and total failure?”
Well,
Because you understand elementary school level math?
The Padres traded for about 2 1/3 seasons of Soto in 2022.
They would be trading 1 season of Soto in 2023/2024
1 is less than half of 2 1/3
It’s like asking why 1 kilogram of sugar costs less than 2 and 1/3 kilograms of sugar.
Glad I could help.
If you want to get a little more advanced, you could look at it like:
The Padres thought they were acquiring a, for example, 5 WAR per season player. If the value of 1 WAR was $7 million, then they were acquiring (2 1/3 * 5 * 7) $81.7 million in performance.
During that time frame the Padres would have paid Soto about:
2022: 1/3 * $17,000,000 = $5,700,000
2023: $23,000,000
2024: maybe $30,000,000
Total: $58,700,000
That’s an excess value of ($81,700,000-$58,700,000) $23,000,000
If they traded him now, they would be trading $35,000,000 (5 WAR * $7,000,009 per WAR) of performance minus his 2024 expected salary of $30,000,000 – just $5,000,000 in expected value
And $5,000,000 is less than 1/2 of $23,000,000.
*Note: this analysis ignores things like present and future value for the sake of simplicity of explaining a concept. Of course, including those things would make Soto’s value even lower in 2024 compared to 2022 and 2023.
So, anyone with the most basic understanding of how to value baseball players should expect Soto’s trade value in 2024 to be less than half of what it was at the 2022 deadline since he has fewer games to provide performance on the field and has a higher salary.
Any other questions, harambe?
If they trade him they just traded Abrams, Gore, Hassell Wood and Susana for less than half of what they gave up with nothing to show for it. Complete and abject failure. It’s like the 49ers trading 3 first rounders and a third rounder for a fourth rounder.
Anything else you care to be wrong about today?
Actually from a value at the time of trade yes you could say trading him now means they did poorly on this trade because they aren’t getting the value the traded away back.
Why you don’t know is if the padres who say get 2-3 good prospects back now which is about half of what they traded to get him. If these 2-3 prospects could put perform all the 5-6 prospects types they traded to get Soto.
What if all the prospects the padres traded away wind up sucking. What if the two prospects or so they get for Soto now end up stars. So on paper now it would be a loser trade but you never know until it plays out.
Either way I don’t expect them to trade Soto:
tlh
This was your previous statement that I responded to
““Because if you are willing to give up Soto for less than half of what you gave up and didn’t get a title out of it how can the first trade possibly be seen as anything other than a complete and total failure?””
It should be obvious that 1 season of Soto is less valuable than 2 1/3 seasons of Soto. Especially when the increase in salary is factored in.
“If they trade him they just traded Abrams, Gore, Hassell Wood and Susana for less than half of what they gave up with nothing to show for it. Complete and abject failure. ”
But it seems like you are falling to grasp that simple concept.
What they have to show for it is 6.6 fWAR or $53 million of on-field performance.
Now, perhaps, but highly unlikely, $53 million is “nothing” to you. But for a professional baseball team it’s definitely more than nothing.
So, saying that they got “nothing” out of it is just plain wrong.
“Anything else you care to be wrong about today?”
Strike 1
tlh
“If they trade him they just traded Abrams, Gore, Hassell Wood and Susana for less than half of what they gave up with nothing to show for it. Complete and abject failure. It’s like the 49ers trading 3 first rounders and a third rounder for a fourth rounder.”
Wut?
It’s not like that at all
It’s like buying a car for $5000, driving it around for a few years and selling it for $2000.
You didn’t get nothing out of that deal, you got a few years of use of the car.
The Padres got a year plus of performance from Soto. Absurd to call that “nothing”
Nope. The Soto trade isn’t a trade you make unless you are certifiably WS bound. Preller made his bed with that trade and now he has to lay in it. If they don’t win the WS in 2024 or it they trade Soto this offseason then the first Soto trade will go down as the worst trade of the entire Preller era. Even worse than Turner for Myers.
“What they have to show for it is 6.6 fWAR or $53 million of on-field performance.”
CJ Abrams et al were worth $143.5m surplus value on BTV the day that trade was made which means the Padres are still $90.5m in the hole.
tlh
There’s no such thing as “certifiably WS bound.”
What are you even talking about?
“Preller made his bed with that trade and now he has to lay in it. If they don’t win the WS in 2024 or it they trade Soto this offseason then the first Soto trade will go down as the worst trade of the entire Preller era. ”
By idiots, maybe? And why would Preller care about what idiots think?
On a related note
Have I helped you too understand why Soto’s trade value in 2024 is less than half of what it was in July of be 2022?
tlh
“CJ Abrams et al were worth $143.5m surplus value on BTV the day that trade was made”
From BTV
“Soto was traded. But on the other hand, I was right: by our model, they left $28.3M on the table here, the deal accepted as a minor underpay by San Diego.”
baseballtradevalues.com/btv-2022-mlb-trade-deadlin…
So, the deal that you’re saying was “an abject failure” was considered a minor UNDERPAY by the numbers that YOU are citing.
You also can’t seem to grasp that 2 1/3 years of a player is less valuable than 1 year of a player.
It’s like you don’t know what [the hell] you are talking about.
If Soto’s trade value now is less than half of what it was in July 2022 the only reason to trade for him is to use him. You don’t trade for a player to flip him later unless he can stand to increase his trade value. Like 2015-16 Drew Pomeranz. And the Padres are trying to contend in 2024 and Soto is integral to that.
The Soto trade was the most extreme “win now” trade in MLB history. If you make a “win now” move and don’t “win now” then you lose the trade. The more you gave up the worse it is. Their only hope to salvage the trade is to win the WS in 2024.
It’s like the 49ers trading 3 first rounders and a third rounder for a fourth rounder.
=========================
The analogy still doesn’t work. If you pay me $300,000 to rent my Swiss Chalet for three years, and decide to sublet it after you use it for two years, you won’t get $300,000 back. All things being equal, you will get $100,000 back.
I’m not crazy about that analogy either. The trade has to stand or fall on its own merits. it is too difficult to win a WS to track it to one player. The Sale trade would’ve still be a good trade, even if the Dodgers beat the RS in the WS.
There is no point in renting your Swiss Chalet if I was planning to sublet it for less.
Not really
thelegendaryharambe6 hours ago
There is no point in renting your Swiss Chalet if I was planning to sublet it for less.
==========================
Of course there is. I bought a lot of PSA 9 cards. Sold 3 of the 4 for less than I paid for the entire lot, but kept the PSA 9 Morris rookie. I had split NYY season tickets. Sold most off at a small loss, and kept the RS tickets. Knew someone that bought a college campus, sold off most of the campus, and kept the presidents house.
If you give up the overall #18 pick for a player, get two years out of him, and trade him for a #20, it is a huge win.
Only if you win a title in those 2 years.
Also, the Padres could actually use Soto in 2024. It’s not a rebuilding year for them. And spare us the comments about how they could get better in 2024 by trading Soto.
tlh
I understand that you are the product of “hot taek” and “rings” culture.
I’m sorry for that
“If Soto’s trade value now is less than half of what it was in July 2022 the only reason to trade for him is to use him.”
They did, of course, use him. For about one and one third seasons so far. They may use him for another season or part of a season or multiple seasons.
“You don’t trade for a player to flip him later unless he can stand to increase his trade value.”
This is abjectly false. Just “wut”? I’m sorry that you have failed to learn throughout middle and high school that just saying something does not make it true.
“Their only hope to salvage the trade is to win the WS in 2024.”
Again. I’m sorry that “hot taek” and “ringz” culture has so thoroughly ruined your brain. And, again, just saying something does not make it true.
The Padres were a good team in 2022. They traded for Soto to get better and had a solid playoff run in 2022. They had a disappointing season in 2023. They are trying to arrange themselves for 2024 and beyond.
Not everything has to be “the best/worst evah”. Get that out of your head and you’ll have a lot better comments
“They did, of course, use him. For about one and one third seasons so far. They may use him for another season or part of a season or multiple seasons.”
And what did it get them?
“That is abjectly false.”
How is it false? Why would you trade for player if you are planning to flip him later if you already know you are buying him at peak value? What sense does that make?
LOL
“And, again, just saying something does not make it true.”
You’re right it was already true before I said it.
“The Padres were a good team in 2022. They traded for Soto to get better and had a solid playoff run in 2022. They had a disappointing season in 2023. They are trying to arrange themselves for 2024 and beyond.”
Yes and you’re not making yourself better for 2024 by trading away a guy who just put up 5.6 WAR.
tlh
“And what did it get them?”
You’re going in circles
“What they have to show for it is 6.6 fWAR or $53 million of on-field performance.”
“You’re right it was already true before I said it.”
Provide evidence that it’s true
“How is it false? Why would you trade for player if you are planning to flip him later if you already know you are buying him at peak value? What sense does that make?”
To get their on field performance. Of course.
“Yes and you’re not making yourself better for 2024 by trading away a guy who just put up 5.6 WAR.”
That, of course, depends on what they trade him for.
“To get their on field performance. Of course.”
Exactly. They think Soto’s on-field performance is worth more than Abrams, Gore et al. So why would they suddenly decide it’s worth less than half that? Remember, the Padres are trying to contend in 2024.
“That, of course, depends on what they trade him for.”
No one is trading the Padres a package that would make them better in 2024 for Juan Soto. No one. The Padres didn’t even do that the first time they traded for Soto.