The Blue Jays are 1.5 games behind the Rangers for the last AL wild card berth, so it remains quite possible that Toronto could still end up as part of the postseason bracket. However, simply squeaking into the playoffs wasn’t at all what the Jays envisioned when spending roughly $215MM (a club record) in payroll and surpassing the luxury tax threshold for the first time, as the team fully expected to be contending for a World Series title.
Alek Manoah’s extreme struggles and a lack of bench depth have contributed to the Jays’ underwhelming season, yet the biggest culprit has been a very up-and-down offense. Though the Blue Jays are actually among the league’s best in getting hits and getting on base, they rank middle of the pack in runs due to an inability to consistently drive in runners in scoring position. Beyond this specific flaw, the Jays have also gotten disappointing years at the plate from several regulars, and while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has still been above average, his oddity of a season has been pretty symbolic of Toronto’s 2023 campaign as a whole.
“Above average” production and a 112 wRC+ is a perfectly respectable year for most players, yet for Guerrero, it stands out as a red flag. When that good (.264/.337/.432 with 20 homers over 579 plate appearances) but unspectacular offense is paired with a subpar defensive season, Guerrero has only 0.4 fWAR — among all qualified players in baseball, only 16 players have a lower fWAR than Guerrero’s modest total.
It is an eye-opening statistic, since for all of the money the Blue Jays have invested in building their roster, the team’s plans have been built around the assumption of excellent production from homegrown stars Guerrero and Bo Bichette. While Bichette has mostly lived up to that billing and has been Toronto’s best player this season, Guerrero suddenly becoming barely a replacement-level player has been a big setback for the Jays.
And yet, a glimpse at Guerrero’s Statcast page would make one think that he is again an MVP candidate. Guerrero ranks in at least the 89th percentile in such key categories as strikeout rate, hard contact, barrels, expected batting average, expected on-base percentage, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, and xwOBA. In fact, that latter statistic hints that Guerrero’s relative struggles this season have been due to horrid luck. No qualified player in baseball has a larger gap between their xwOBA and wOBA than Guerrero, whose elite .379 xwOBA has resulted in a much more modest .332 wOBA.
The sea of red on Guerrero’s Statcast page seemingly indicates that a turn-around is imminent or almost inevitable, and yet as the calendar has now reached September, the first baseman has still yet to get hot for any extended period of time. Guerrero’s best production came early in the season with an .885 OPS over 127 PA in March and April, but he has hit only .245/.318/.397 over 434 PA since May 5.
Hailed as a future cornerstone superstar and the game’s best prospect during his time in Toronto’s farm system, Guerrero seemed well on his way to living up to the hype with his sensational 2021 campaign. Guerrero hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances, and likely would’ve won AL MVP honors if it hadn’t been for Shohei Ohtani’s legendary two-way performance.
Rather than build on that big season, Guerrero took a relative step backwards in 2022, hitting .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers over 706 PA. While not exactly a cause for concern considering that a 132+ wRC is still outstanding, Guerrero’s 2022 numbers revealed some issues that have become larger issues in 2023. For one, Guerrero’s chase rates and chase contact rates have been well below average in 2022-23, as pitchers have learned that Guerrero is prone to swinging at pitches outside the zone with less-than-stellar results.
While Guerrero doesn’t strike out much, his tendency to chase has led to a lot of his hard-hit balls staying on the ground. Guerrero has a 47.5% grounder rate this season, and an even 50% grounder rate since the start of the 2022 season — the eighth-highest among qualified hitters in that span. Between these grounders, Guerrero’s below-average speed, and a .285 BABIP in 2022-23, it perhaps isn’t surprising that Guerrero has hit into 46 double plays since Opening Day 2022, tied for the most of any player in the league.
Guerrero has always had pretty high groundball rates over his five MLB seasons, yet in 2021, his career-best 36.5% fly ball rate resulted in that big 48-homer year. He has only a 31.9% fly ball rate in the two seasons since, with rather a stark dropoff in overall power. The first baseman’s Isolated Power metric has gone from .290 in 2021 to .205 last season to .169 this season.
As much as 2021 seemed like the first taste of what Guerrero was “supposed to be” as a budding superstar, it also stands out as an outlier within Guerrero’s five Major League seasons. It is also worth noting that the 2021 season was also an outlier for the Blue Jays in general, as COVID-related border restrictions kept the team from actually playing in Toronto until the end of July. Guerrero still had a .935 OPS in 152 PA at Rogers Centre in 2021, though even that impressive total paled in comparison to his numbers at the Blue Jays’ other two home ballparks that season — a 1.418 OPS in 96 PA at the Jays’ spring complex in Dunedin, or his 1.180 OPS in 98 PA at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.
Since the pandemic also forced the Jays to play in Buffalo during the 60-game 2020 season, Guerrero has only played 241 games at his actual home ballpark in his career, and there is evidence that Guerrero has yet to entirely get comfortable at Rogers Centre. Guerrero has hit .258/.327/.448 over 1024 career PA in Toronto, but his home/road splits have been unusually drastic this season. Guerrero has only a .691 OPS at Rogers Centre in 2023, as compared to a much more respectable .837 OPS in road games.
The altered dimensions and wall sizes at Rogers Centre this season seems to have had some impact on overall offense, as Statcast’s Park Factor calculations rank Toronto as a slightly below-average hitting environment this season after years of being seen as a park that generally favors hitters. Of course, there are some on-field factors that go into this calculation, as the reduced offense might have less to do with the ballpark renovations than how the Jays have had a strong defense and good pitching staff this season, or their own lineup’s lack of production. And, since several other Blue Jays batters are hitting quite well at Rogers Centre, it is hard to pinpoint why Guerrero in particular is struggling so much in his home ballpark.
Beyond offense, Guerrero also hasn’t been helping his cause on defense. Public defensive metrics (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.3 UZR/150, -14 Outs Above Average) are very down on his glovework, which represents a step back after Guerrero had seemingly been improving as a first baseman in past seasons. The public metrics have always been somewhat split on Guerrero’s defense, yet DRS gave him plus grades in both 2021 and 2022, while he had a +2.5 UZR/150 in 2021.
Given that he is close to competing his fifth MLB season, it is still almost a surprise to remember that Guerrero won’t turn 25 years old until March, and his prime years might well still be ahead of him. Of course, this is small consolation to a team built to win right now, and Guerrero’s 2023 season also creates some new questions about his status as a long-term building block. He is arbitration-controlled for two more seasons and will be due a raise on his $14.5MM salary in 2023, with his early-career success and Super Two status combining to give the first baseman some hefty paydays throughout his arb years.
The question of whether the Blue Jays will sign Guerrero and/or Bichette (or neither) to long-term contract extensions has been a lingering question for years, yet since Bichette is also controlled through 2025, it isn’t necessarily a question the Jays have to face just yet. However, Guerrero’s 2023 performance is far from the ideal for a franchise player, and as that huge 2021 season gets further in the rearview mirror, the Blue Jays might still not know exactly what they have in Guerrero.
A big September would go a long way towards salvaging this season from a personal perspective and a team perspective if Guerrero can finally break out and carry the Jays into the playoffs. But, after what has basically been a four-month slump, time is running out for Guerrero to adjust and turn his superb advanced metrics into better real-world results.
Because he was my #1 pick on my fantasy team this year. Duh.
Still time for Rangers to choke and Blue Jays to sneak in
Choke? …or just get out played by the better teams? Funny when the coach potatoes downplays a professional
I think you mean couch and not coach.
And when you have that big a division lead combined with the large a payroll, it is choked not merely outplayed.
I thought with all that media love pre season , Bochy was a guru , how could this happen. Guru’s don’t let their bullpens fall apart for weeks under their auspices. ?
Too much is made of managers.
I always go back to Sparky when a reporter asked him .. What makes you a great manager ? Points across to the locker room across from his office … “I give the ball to Tom “
Simpletons correct basic spelling corrections when they have nothing else to provide. They’re weak. I understand your frustration considering you’re a NY fan. You thrive in others socks bc you cannot do it yourself
Coach potatoes make great France fried
Choke. Texas had a big enough lead.
Defensive metrics are overrated.
Not really…
Are OBP and OPS also over rated? Cuz he kinda sucks with that too. He isn’t in the top 50 in the league with OBP or HRs or AVG or BB and not in the top 80 with OPS. If the dude is all bat he should be good at the better than average at the batting part. SO if it were just the defensive metrics pulling him down, why is a he an average hitter this year? But hey he is top 5 in Grounding into Double Plays!
Weird
Acuna Jr. had a down season last year did everyone forget?
Acuna was coming back from a torn ACL.
And was also still a 2 win player
“Acuna Jr had a down season”…Acuna has always been an explosive, exciting, multi dimensional player, whereas at his best, Vlade is mostly a one trick pony. There really is no comparison between the two.
Likely playing at 60% !
Pujols 2.0. Can’t run, is overweight, can’t field, doesn’t hit for average, hits lots of meaningless home runs and will cripple any team’s payroll willing enough to sign him
You do realize that Pujols is a first ballot hall of famer right?
He was referring to Luis Pujols with the career 500 OPS and 44 OPS+.
baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujollu01.shtml
Rynoshield I assume he’s comparing him to post 2012 Pujols and not prime Pujols
Yep but I meant Guerrero Jr is going to wind up being the Angels version of Pujols
I thought Vlad hurt his wrist earlier in the season, but then won the HR derby. I’m wondering if his wrist or another undisclosed injury is bothering him. Yes its easy to jump on the, “hes out of shape or entitled” train. The Jays have an experienced coach staff including Mattingly maybe hes just not focused right now.
His peripherals all look good. Vladimir will be never be a good defender. I’d say it’s probably a small mechanical tweak he should work on in the offseason to create more loft on batted balls.
He won the GG last year. He was actually very good last year handling all of Bos terrible throws. This year he has regressed on both sides of the field.
Vlade Jr. could win 7 gold gloves, but he’s never really been a gold glove caliber defender. His body type clearly suggests as much.
Vladdy is too good of a hitter to be hitting like this. He has been in total control of the entire zone inside and out with the ability ( like his dad) to even hit pitches 6 inches outside the zone over the wall. I think he is pouting over the whole team telling him all the fun he is having in years past is stupid and is effecting his overall performance. The team traded away two of his fellow clowns to try and control Vladdy a bit and it has been effective as there has been little fun seen on the bench this year. I think he wants to prove to everyone that having fun for him is important . Every player is different and needs different things to perform well. For some its a meal and for others its an ice bath after every game . I think for Vladdy he needs to have fun and enjoy himself on the field. The Jays should suck it up and take his diminished performance for the next few years and than let him walk away to another team. He might grow out of his bitterness and perform better next year and he might not.
He does the splits all the time regardless if he’s overweight
Vlad needs to lose some LBS, in 2021 he was much more lean. This year it’s noticeable he came into camp really out of shape. He also is the least clutch player on the Jays … if it’s a big moment he will either strike out or hit into a double play. As a Jays fan it’s been very frustrating to watch
His MVP quality season was skewed by playing 44 games in crazy hitter friendly minor league parks because of COVID. It’s irresponsible for people to expect a repeat of that.
2021:
17 homers in 82 road games
10 homers in 38 games at Rogers Centre
21 homers in 44 games in Dunedin and Buffalo
.410/.521/.897/1.418 at TD Ballpark in Dunedin
.321/.418/.762/1.180 at Sahlen Field in Buffalo
Otherwise, he’s been his normal self with an .800ish OPS every other year. Assume future improvement at your own risk.
>crazy hitter friendly minor league parks
I liked the idea of what you posted but I looked at the dimensions of each park and I don’t see drastically smaller dimensions versus Rogers Centre. In fact, Rogers is smaller. Dunedin is a bit bigger. Explain?
Dunedin
Left Field – 333 ft
Left-Center – 380 ft
Center Field – 400 ft
Right-Center – 363 ft
Right Field – 336 ft
Buffalo
Left field: 325 ft
Left-center field: 371 ft
Center field: 404 ft
Right-center field: 367 ft
Right field: 325 ft
Rogers
Left Field Line – 328 ft
Left-Centre – 368 ft
Centre Field – 400 ft
Right-Centre – 359 ft
Right Field Line – 328 ft
Oops. Jan 27, 2023 changes for Rogers but not major:
In left-centre field, the wall distance has been reduced from 375 feet to 368, with a slight increase in wall height, from 10 feet to 11 feet, 2 inches. But in right-centre field, the distance drops from 375 to 359, and the wall is now 14 feet, 4 inches high, as opposed to the previous 10 feet.
If anything, all three parks are very similar in dimensions.
There are articles out there about it,
but few reference them… they only looknat his 2021 raw numbers. Specifically in the case of Dunedin, the flyball park factor was through the roof and it’s not just the park dimensions – it’s the weather (heat in Florida in the early months) and wind effect.
It’s not a coincidence that his production was so ridiculous in those 2 parks and relatively close to what’s been his normal other than that, even in 2021. Maybe natural talent will allow him to live up to what everyone assumed he’ll be, but he’s been a statcast stud but just an above average hitter in real life.
Thanks for the follow up info
I just saw someone on Twitter named I think “ “Shellac” refer to Vladdy as “Groundout Jr.” Thought it was very funny
It is funny but his Dad was really good.
For sure bad luck has played a part in Guerrero’s relatively poor season (Pete Alonso, too) but the truly great players like Mookie Betts or Jose Ramirez never have off-seasons. That’s not a knock on Guerrero, I’m just pointing out that being a consistently great hitter in the major leagues is really, really hard and rare.
mookie betts 2021 was a down year
Exactly
Was it, though? Mookie had a 126 OPS+ that year… Guerrero has a 112 OPS+ right now. Pretty big difference…
Sure they do… betts definitely has and jose ramirez has had a couple – 2019 was barely above league average and this year for him was mostly forgettable except for a couple of hot streaks, and still well below his averages
That is a knock but obviously a deserved knock.
Love the analytics take. Having a bad year, he’s hitting in bad luck. Having a good year, he’s hitting in good luck. Yep, the algebra never lies!!
Having a mediocre season for Vlad and his talent. Other players putting same numbers at 24 years old are considered a revelation by their teams.
I’d take this guy on my team for the next decade , 15 years , cu in the HOF with 500-600 dingers.
Crazy but he’s still learning
A 112 wRC+ from a 24 year old 1b wouldn’t be considered a revelation by many teams. If he was a SS, sure.
The man-child Vladdy has never been the same since they broke up his good-time atmosphere by shipping Gurriel Jr and Teoscar out for spare parts. Vladdy is simply not a serious athlete. He turned from budding superstar to Prince Fielder 2.0 and maybe not even that good.
Prince Fielder had two spinal-fusion surgeries before doctors deemed him medically unable to play and force him into early retirement. I don’t see the comparison to him.
I agree with most of this observation. The Blue Jays seemed to have fun with each other in the dugout. Now, it’s just Guerrero showering teammates with sunflower seeds.
The decline started when skip took away The Jacket.
The collapse of Alex Manoah is the biggest reason for the jays being out of the playoffs. It’s a 15 game swing.
I don’t think that’s true. They arguably have the best pitching staff in the league, and that’s with Manoah being pretty terrible. The offense has let them down to the point where for a while it looked like they were going to be a historically bad team when it came to hitting with RISP. If they had a few more clutch hits throughout the season they’d be comfortably in the playoffs and probably battling for first place in the AL.
You could not be more wrong.
The Jays starting pitching has been a strength without Manoah. They really haven’t missed him in the rotation at all. The biggest issues have been Vladdys lack of productivity and the front office not making moves to bring in help to the lineup. This team…whole organization really, is stagnant and needs to be revamped.
Trading a top prospect and Gurriel for a 4th outfielder does not help. Manoah’s struggles are masked by the performance of the other 4 starters.
Horrid trade, Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel Jr, and called so at the time.
Wasn’t exactly rocket science to call that one. However, Varsho is proving:
A) Jays needed a right handed OF bat to help Varsho and/or Kiermaier against lefties
B) Fans should re-assess what WAR is and how valuable it is
C) Big difference playing meaningful games in the best division over mostly meaningless baseball in the 4th best division in baseball
D) Jays still have a scouting problem. Derek Fisher would agree.
Your arguments are compelling but an Alex Manoah at 100% would make this team much better.
Vladdy’s conditioning will always be an issue but I don’t believe he is the problem. The Jays have solid players. They added OF defense to help those pitchers and balanced the lineup with more LH bats. This is Jim Leyland all over again. The manager doesn’t know his players and doesn’t know how to stack them. This team should not be having offensive struggles.
Also, the Jays lineup is not built to be one dimensional . There are high OB batters in the lineup. Still, the Jays play for the HR. The last game I saw, Vladdy turned his long double into a single by standing at the plate and watching the ball until it hit the top of the fence then made it to 2B on some sketchy base running. The Jays haven’t learned anything for previous years.
You can just say you didn’t read the article
Or even bother to actually check his season-by-season stats.
As others have said in the comments, and it is not just Vladdy Jr, it is Manoah and Kirk too. Since making the big leagues all three of these players have put on far too much non muscle weight. I don’t know why the BlueJays coaching and executive waited until Manoah blew up to start addressing it, but the bottom line is these three players aren’t ready to be high end athletic professionals, They are still learning and the BlueJay’s support system doesn’t appear to be helping.
This first happened to Vladdy Jr when he first got to the bigs and he went back to a good off season training regimen and came in fairly lean and mean. Since that year he has been seriously overweight. If you see him in shorts and a T you wouldn’t know he was a professional athlete.
It’s simple.
Most players when they have an awful approach and swing at pitchers pitches, have awful underlying stats and rack up the k’s.
Vlad has elite bat speed and hand eye, so it turns in to high exit velo grounders.
It’s all approach.
This is absolutely the reality for him. It’s a bit embarrassing to watch to be honest. Every pitcher in the league is toying with the guy. It’s like he doesn’t even realize what’s happening. Sometimes a pitcher will give him one hittable pitch early on in the count just to get him primed and ready to swing but then go back to the normal 3-5 inches off the plate, which he is more than willing to give into 75% of the time. When you’re doing that you can’t be all that successful end of story. The more time goes on the more the league is picking apart his weaknesses and he’s yet to counter punch that and may never. He just can’t lay off crap pitches and until he does you will see a continued regression.
100%
He is not racking up K’s. His K rate is far below league average and has decreased from his already great K rates in 2021 and 2022.
Please read it again, I’m suggesting Vlad is not most players, which is why his k% isn’t skyrocketing.
Doesn’t mean his approach is solid
Ummm, yes it does. Being BETTER than the rest of the league at something by a large margin means your approach is good.
His pull percentage is down, the ball is travelling 30 ft less on his barrels.
His approach is a mess, he doesn’t strike out because of his natural ability. You’re reading way too much in to one stat, this is not luck, it’s approach.
Guys can make contact, put the ball in-play, and still have a bad approach.
His pull percentage is down 0.7%. That means of the 434 balls he put in play, he pulled 3 fewer pitches. THREE,
You made that garbage up about how far the ball traveled on barreled pitches.
He is striking out LESS this season because he has a great approach at the plate. His problem is SEEING the pitches.
ummm, no. When you are above average in SO% and BB%, then you have a good approach at the plate. What it means is you are not seeing the pitches well.
You do not watch Vlad enough to understand what he is doing and what he isn’t. Has he been seeing the ball well? Um, hate to break it to you but it would not shock any Jays fan who watch daily if he is not seeing the ball well.
As I said, you CAN make contact and still have a bad approach. Both can be true. It can also be moot if Vlad has a big September like Bo did a year ago, erasing what was a meh season from Bo up to that point.
I still don’t know how he won a Gold Glove last season. Though to be fair, I don’t know how much better his competition at 1B was
Patience and approach. These are two words that might as well be …well…English to Vladdy. He has no idea what they mean. It is not a mechanical issue. It’s him inside his own head believing that his natural talent will prevail. He’s simply trying to swing his way out of the hole, but it’s just getting deeper. Needs to have an actual approach and then STICK to it for more than 2 pitches.
Vlad Jr has both an above average BB% and K%, He has a good approach at the plate. That is not the issue.
His O-Swing is up ~6% & O-Contact% is 13% higher than it was in 2021, I believe this is what people are referring to.
There is more to approach than just K’s & BB’s.
Ummm. No. What that is indicative of is him not seeing pitches as well, not his approach at the plate. When you are above average in both K rate and BB rate you have a good approach as the plate.
Someone needs to check on two things. How still his head is at the plate and his visual acuity. One is on the hitting instructor. The other an optometrist. .
His Chase contact is up 3.8%, not 13%.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guer…
His in the zone contact rate is up also.
His approach at the plate is just fine. How he is seeing pitches is not.
So he can’t see, but he’s making MORE contact? That’s definitely not internally contradictory or anything. These posts should have been on your baseballislife handle.
He’s going to make massive arbitration sums the next two years, not saying he’s close to a non-tender or anything but he really needs to make adjustments after pitchers made adjustments to him since 2021.
Vlad Jr’s ground ball rate and HH rate on GB is on par with his 2021 season. That is not the reason for his issues. His overall HH rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity (both avg and max) are down. His BB% is down 50% from 2021. When he hits the ball, he still hits it hard as his still elite HH% and exit velocities show. He just isn’t doing that as often
All those things add up to him not seeing the ball as well. So does his increasing chase rate.
I wonder if any of that is because of the change in tempo due to the pitch clock?
I believe Vlad Jr can no longer get the contact he could before because his upper body is all tied up with weight and his belly is in the way.
Less protection in the lineup in 2021. Also played in launching pads in Dunedin and Buffalo.
All the stats you posted suggest he’s swinging at the wrong pitches, which is approach.
No it doesn’t. It indicates he is not seeing the ball as well for some reason. EVERYTHING indicates he has a great approach at the plate.
Like the article said, his peripherals show some pretty significant bad luck, so he’ll prob wnd up closer to the hitter he was last year or better next year, though i agree he needs to get in better shape and take a better plate approach
It isn’t bad luck that causes him to hit so many ground balls….it’s a bad approach and bad mechanics.
Even with all of the ground balls it’s still bad luck to have the numbers he has. His line drive rate is the highest of his career, and his GB rate is five percentage points lower than last year. The “expected” stats exist for a reason. Even w zero adjustments expect better numbers next year.
His GB% is not all that much different than 2021. In fact, he is on pace to hit 4 more ground balls this season.
At least 3 players need to come into spring training 2024 in much better shape. Vlad is one of them. The loss of Teoscar protecting Vlad has also hurt him. Part of another problem with Vlad is understanding what to do in certain situations. Need contact, swings wildly. Need a base hit, swings wildly. Mental game issues. It’s possible he has a big 2024 addressing these things.
One of those guys who a lot of us-me included- were openly discussing regarding a possible 8-15 year deal for an AAV of like $27.5M to $37.5M.
Weird how we have these objective valuations of like 12 years/$400M to “he was a flash in the pan and he was never as good as that one season and this just goes to show you”
I always thought he was a little too cocky early on. I’ve noticed that the Blue Jays have had a couple 1-2 season wonders recently who have acted like they were the greatest baseball players in history and suddenly they’re, shockingly, proven to have been on a hot streak thanks to being rookies or near rookie levels with raw talent and good luck and not enough experience from other teams to fully scout them- and after that first season or two they get figured out and suddenly they’re human, because they don’t train themselves to improve beyond that raw talent and they don’t focus on physical training- fitness, movement, etc. and yes they let themselves get heavier with fat because they think their natural muscle is enough.
I think he’ll still get like 2 years/$35M to finish up his team controlled years but I think he’s still going to get around 4 years/$90M w/ escalators, options and opt outs that could take it to like 6 years/$150M or allow him to opt out after every season to go gif that mega deal everybody seem to think he might be worth, but…. I think he’s a 25-30 HR, 1.0 – 3.2 WAR player year to year and he’s thus worth about $17M-$18M a year.
“17-18M a year”…I think portly, slow, one-trick-pony power hitters can be had for substantially less than 18 million a year. Jake Burger is having a MUCH better year than Vlade and is a minimum salary player or around 750,000 per yr. The one trick power hitter has lost tremendous value the last few yrs.
First off- Jake Burger is a pre arbitration level player without a full season under his belt, appearing in his third overall season. 0.127 Years Service Time for Burger vs Vlad Jr’s 3.157 Years Service Time in his fifth overall season with ROY top 10 and MVP top 5-20 rankings in multiple seasons. Not a great comparable. Not even a comparable of any kind.
I just find it really hard to believe Vlad Jr will go from a guy making $14M in his second year of arbitration to maybe earning $8M a season.
Vlad, Jr’s WAR value has been all over the map through this career thus far. Is he only worth 1 WAR? Is he worth 6.7 WAR? He’s probably worth something in between those two.
Even discounting his value by a few points, he will probably be about a 3 WAR player year over year, assuming he rights the ship a little bit. In today’s market 3 WAR is worth around $16.5M to $25.5M per season. So even as a mediocre version of himself he’s worth around $20M per season.
Heck even this very bad year he’s been worth around $6.25M market value, averaging various WAR calculations.
A nutritionist and personal trainer would make a world of difference for this player.
Yeah I’m not interested in this whole WAR arguement. Last year BWar said that Myles Straw was just as good as Pete Alonso. The stats also said that Tommy Edman was a MVP canidate accord to WAR. I’ll take Guerrero over 90% of players in the league. WAR is garbage. I also don’t get why we combine slugging and OBP. Doesn’t make sense to me either. Getting a hit is way more valuable then a walk. Hits drive in runners
He’s just not that good… typical hype beast.
He’s just not that good
How the hell did you let Julian Merriweather get away??
He was always injured and when he did pitch he was terrible
He’s still better than replacement level, but yeah it’s been a disappointing season.
Vlady needs to put the fork down and get in shape. His body type does not age well.
Where’s @dada the white knight defending vlady as a superstar? Learn to read dada.
It’s possible Vladdy’s heart is not in the game. When your father is Vlad Sr. maybe he was just expected to be a brilliant ballplayer. So yeah he has the natural affinity and the genes but that only takes you so far if you’re not willing to put in the extra work. We see this all the time with very gifted athletes who just play baseball because it’s easy for them and it’s easy money but as soon as something comes along where they have to put in the extra work … nah, never had to work hard before, why should I now??? (Thinking of you Anthony Rendon, thinking of you Jesse Winker…etc etc etc)
I think you nailed this with regard to Rendon. He admitted he didn’t care about baseball, was just really gifted at it. Then he also claimed he didn’t want to play more then a couple more years heading into FA, but he got offered a quarter billion dollars… over 7 seasons. So he took it. As long as he does his rehabs and physically shows up when he’s not on the IL, he gets his full salary (pro rated 60 game season exempted) so yeah his heart is definitely not in the game because the money is fully guaranteed as long as he doesn’t fully quit without retiring, ala Yoenis Cespedes.
I think Vlad Jr. Is an example of a guy leaning on inherited/raw talent and not doing the training or exercise required to stay effective athletically and then the league figuring him out and him relying way too much on his power swing- and it’s been established that 1-dimensional guys who hit 40 HR’s a season aren’t actually valued all that much- remember Chris Carter? A bunch of other guys who hit 40 dingers but provided no other value and only got $3-$4M on one year deals?
There is nothing in here about a transaction. This has no relevance to MLBTR. It’s just another weak attempt at statistical analysis, something that Fangraphs and many other sites do much better than this basic regurgitation of stats from a Baseball Reference page. Stop trying to be something you’re not, MLBTR.
And while you’re at it, figure out how to use “and” and “but” at the start of sentences. These are wrong:
“And, since several other Blue Jays batters are hitting quite well at Rogers Centre, it is hard to pinpoint why Guerrero in particular is struggling so much in his home ballpark.”
“But, after what has basically been a four-month slump, time is running out for Guerrero to adjust and turn his superb advanced metrics into better real-world results.”
Commas after the first words are unnecessary and incorrect. These are correct:
“And since several other Blue Jays batters are hitting quite well at Rogers Centre, it is hard to pinpoint why Guerrero in particular is struggling so much in his home ballpark.”
“But after what has basically been a four-month slump, time is running out for Guerrero to adjust and turn his superb advanced metrics into better real-world results.”
The conundrum is simple.. how on earth do you value this player. if he were injured or something it would show on the underlying statcast numbers which are as good as ever. I think Vladdy has found an inefficiency in how we evaluate statcast stuff. As a stats professional and watching him all year, i think he’s hitting the wrong balls hard (though gb rate isn’t as bad as 22) and its keeping his statcast up but the damage on his swing is neutered by an almost surgical ability to not do damage on cookies. A lot of 114mph tying up the ss… but then wet get into gb rate… which is better this year… it’s a tough one and needs a deep dive.
I’m positive it’s 100% mental, knoblauch forgot how to throw to 2nd, don’t underestimate its toll…. but still.. the statcast..