The Twins activated Alex Kirilloff from the 10-day injured list Friday, and the first baseman marked his return by going 1-for-4 in Minnesota’s 5-2 victory over the Mets. In the corresponding move, the Twins placed Joey Gallo on the 10-day IL due to a left foot contusion, with Gallo’s placement retroactive to September 6.
Kirilloff was playing in his first MLB game since July 29, as a right shoulder strain forced the former top prospect to the sidelines. Since recovery from wrist surgery already delayed Kirilloff’s season debut until May 6, he has played in only 70 games this season, though Kirilloff has hit a solid .270/.355/.439 over 262 plate appearances. A hefty .353 BABIP has certainly aided that production, but it still represents a very nice step forward for Kirilloff after wrist problems hampered his first two seasons in the majors.
Now back on the active roster, Kirilloff figures to resume his role as Minnesota’s primary first baseman, with Donovan Solano stepping in to spell Kirilloff against left-handed pitching. Gallo was also a significant part of the first base mix, but he’ll now miss some time after fouling a ball off his foot, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune).
Signed to a one-year, $11MM free agent contract last winter, Gallo has to some extent rebounded from his rough 2022 season, as his .177/.301/.440 slash line and 21 homers in 332 PA does translate to an above-average 103 wRC+. However, most of Gallo’s production came in April, and he has been in a pronounced slump for the rest of the season. Gallo’s ability to play first base and all three outfield positions has made him a useful asset for a Minnesota team that has been hit with multiple injuries over the course of 2023, but it remains to be seen if Gallo will be part of a postseason roster, should the Twins hold on to win the AL Central.
Byron Buxton’s status is also an x-factor at this point, as the former All-Star hasn’t played since appearing in a minor league rehab game on September 1. Buxton was playing in his first game as an outfielder in over a year, as recurring knee problems resulted in arthroscopic surgery late in the 2022 season, and the Twins’ decision to use Buxton exclusively as a designated hitter this season. With Buxton currently on the IL due to a hamstring injury, the Twins were trying to ease Buxton back into fielding duty, only to be set back by this latest case of patella tendinitis.
Baldelli didn’t have any new update on when Buxton might be able to play again, at either the minor league or MLB levels. There’s something of a holding pattern situation until Buxton is healthy, but as Baldelli noted, “that doesn’t mean he’s not going to play for us. We’re anticipating him working his way back and taking the field for us.”
In other Twins injury news, Michael A. Taylor and Nick Gordon each took part in a live batting practice session against Brock Stewart, as all three players continue to make some progress in their rehab work. Gordon still isn’t expected back until closer to the end of the regular season, but Taylor might be back in relatively short order, after being placed on the IL last Sunday due to a right hamstring strain.
In addition to the live BP session, Taylor also said he did some baserunning work on Friday. Taylor has hit a career-high 20 homers and has been one of baseball’s best defensive center fielders, putting him in line for his second career Gold Glove and giving Minnesota some much-needed relief up the middle with Buxton relegated to DH work.
Stewart last pitched in the majors in 2019 before resurfacing with the Twins this year, and he returned in grand fashion by posting an 0.70 ERA over 25 2/3 relief innings. Unfortunately, Stewart’s season was cut short by elbow soreness in late June, which has now led to a lengthy stint on the 60-day injured list. Stewart is likely to need some minor league rehab work given the longer layoff, but he should be able to get back before the regular season is over.
Anal-ytics is laughable. Gallo is slightly above league average? Lol He’s awful. He strikes out in 50% of his official ABs. He runs into a pitch once or twice a week. Yeah, great way to spend $11 million Minnesota!
He has 3 sac flys in his career. Even the most average guys get that in a season
The currency of baseball is outs and runs. Gallo has walked just enough to have a decent OBP (avoiding outs) and hit just enough homers (producing runs) to be oh-so-slightly above average.
Gallo is awful, doesn’t matter what kind of language you use to justify that he isn’t. He isn’t avoiding outs 50% of the time. Hell, he’s not making contact 50% of the time. Guess we have different definitions of useful baseball players.
@gbs42 – Trouble is almost all that production is from April. Since 5/20 = .154/.288/.349 OPS .637 wRC+ 79 with a 48.6% K rate.
Gallo’s also lost his speed and is now a below average runner, even.
The only player who ever avoided outs 50% of the time in his career was Ted Williams. He’s not good, but he contributes in some ways.
Its really not a problem on analytics. It’s just that Gallo is a one of a kind player. No player in baseball history has ever been considered average or better in the eye’s of wRC+ with as low as a career average as Gallo, until he came along. Baseball and baseball statics have been around forever. It was only a matter of time until a player as extreme as Gallo would come along and break them.
I’d say that Gallo is the biggest outlier in baseball history. There’s no number ever created that could truly quantify his bat because of how wildly extreme it is.
I’ll put it like this. There have been 3421 players since the deadball era with a qualifiying number of plate appearances. 12 of them have a career BA of .200 or lower. The average wRC+ between the 11 other players besides Gallo is about 53, which means that they are 47% below the league average hitter. Sub-60 usually puts you as one of the league’s worst hitters. Javier Baez and Tim Anderson both have wRC+ numbers below 60 this season, and are at the very bottom of the leaderboard. Gallo is at 109. There have also only been five total hitters since the deadball era to hit under .220 and have a wRC+ of 100 or greater.
No, it really is a problem of analytics as you’ve pointed out. Analytics relies on large, and reliable datasets. You’re pointing out how Gallo doesn’t fit into the normal datasets. That means Gallo’s contributions are hard to quantify using existing metrics.
Currently, no metrics really evaluate the impact of strikeouts for batters. Even highly advanced metrics like wRC+ are ultimately based in wOBA, which only cares about how people get on base, not how they generate outs.
Aside from that, Gallo has been horrible since May.
I agree, there is no metric to value an out. I think there needs to be a stat like weighted outs, or something like that. A strikeout isn’t the same as a flyout, and a ground out isn’t the same as a flyout. But Gallo is an outlier in a sample of well over 3000 players over 100 years. He breaks statistics, but that doesn’t mean the statics we have are broken. Because 22/7 (Pi) breaks simple division doesn’t mean division as a whole is broken.
I’m curious, based on advanced analyticals, how Joey Gallo would compare to Dave Kingman. I recall Kingman would either strikeout or hit a HR and that was about it, no in-between.
Kingman has a career 116 OPS+ and 113 wRC+, meaning he’s about 13-16% better than the league average batter. Kingman struck out in 24.4% of his career plate appearances, while Gallo has a 37.9% career K%. Gallo’s career BA is .197 and Kingman’s is .236.
FanGraphs now has +-stats for things like BA, OBP, SLG, BB%, K%, etc. It works in the same way as something like wRC+, ERA+, or OPS+. According to FanGraphs, Kingman’s K% was 92% worse than league average in his career while Gallo’s has only been 71% worse than average during his career. But Gallo has the worse era/league adjusted BA at 79 AVG+ and Kingman at 90 AVG+. Kingman’s walk rate was slightly below average at the time, about 7% per BB%+. Gallo’s BB% has been a whole lot better, about 77% better than average.
Oh Man Gallo. What to Do ?
Gallo’s defensive versatility and pinch running may not be $11m-worthy, but his ability to hit moon shots off backup catchers is worth at least $75
75 bucks never killed anybody
Nobody dare besmirch my sweet, sweet Joey
The Twins are kind of a Dumpster fire, but they should win the division
They might not have guys playing like superstars but they’ve got one of the deepest 40 mans in the league imo
It is a very strange deal, but appear good enough
Tough to call the Twins a dumpster fire and be taken seriously at this point. Over the past month against playoff potential teams.
vs. Arizona = 3-0
vs. Philly = 3-0
vs. Milwaukee = 0-2
vs. Texas = 5-2
The Twins are getting more consistent at the plate and have a very good top of the rotation. Younger guys are stepping up and outplaying the veterans by a good margin.
Time to change the “Mendoza Line” to the “Gallo line”
Nah, no need to lower the standard.
If Gallo is considered a “Slightly Above average” player then Kirilloff is a HOF player.
Gallos seasonal averages obscufates just how black hole godawful he’s been for most of the season. Take away first 2 weeks of April and 1 day in August and his numbers are laughably bad.
A mannequin with a bat could have fared better. That’s not hyperbole.