The Twins’ Bullpen Is In Good Shape For The Postseason

The Twins’ bullpen got a big boost last night, when flamethrowing righties Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart returned to the mound. Paddack has been out all season recovering from Tommy John surgery, while Stewart has been on the shelf with elbow discomfort for the past three months.

Paddack nearly made his return on Sunday, but a rain delay ended his outing before it began. Thus, it wasn’t until last night that he finally threw a pitch in a Major League Baseball game, his first since last May. While the results weren’t quite what he hoped for – he gave up three runs in two innings of work – the underlying numbers were encouraging. The 6-foot-5 right-hander struck out four, earning six called strikes and seven whiffs. His fastball was averaging 96 mph and touching 99; last season, his four-seam averaged just 93 mph and topped out at 96. To be fair, he was a starting pitcher last year, but even so, a 3-mph bump is a promising sign of good things to come. Paddack was never a power pitcher during his time as a starter, but he seems to have discovered a penchant for high heat.

Stewart, for his part, picked up right where he left off. The 31-year-old turned heads earlier this season, showing off a 97-mph fastball and striking out 35.4% of the batters he faced. His heater was back in full force on Tuesday, averaging just under 98 mph. He struck out two of three opposing hitters, inducing eight swings and four whiffs and lowering his season ERA to 0.68.

With Paddack and Stewart back in the fold, the Twins suddenly find themselves with an abundance of talented relievers, an asset every team longs for but few possess. Jhoan Duran, Emilio Pagán, and Caleb Thielbar lead the way, with capable arms like Griffin Jax and Kody Funderburk behind them. Paddack and Stewart provide further depth, as do recently converted starters Louie Varland and Kenta Maeda. That’s nine arms the Twins can count on in October, many of whom have dominant reliever upside.

Manager Rocco Baldelli will lean a little harder on his most trustworthy guys, as all managers do in the playoffs. Still, Duran and Pagán can’t throw every day. When Baldelli has to turn to another bullpen arm, there really isn’t a bad option in the bunch.

Suffice it to say, this hasn’t been the case all year. On the season, Twins relievers rank eighth in the AL with a 3.98 ERA, ninth with 3.2 FanGraphs WAR, and 11th with 36 saves. Things have only gotten worse in the second half, in which they have a 4.27 ERA and 10 blown saves in 28 chances.

However, Minnesota’s bullpen looks completely different today than it has the rest of the year. Indeed, over the last two weeks, they lead the AL with a 2.93 ERA, and that’s without much contribution from Paddack, Stewart, and Maeda. Simply put, the Twins have added by subtraction, replacing their least effective relievers with stronger arms. They cut ties with Jorge López (5.09 ERA) and Dylan Floro (5.29). They optioned Brent Headrick (6.31) and Jordan Balazovic (4.44). Several more relievers are on the 60-day IL, including Jovani Moran (5.31), Jorge Alcala (6.46), and José De León (5.28).

Those seven pitchers threw a total of 175 1/3 innings in relief for the Twins this season; that’s one-third of the team’s bullpen workload. In those innings, they combined for an unsightly 5.39 ERA. To put that in perspective, all other Twins relievers have a 3.29 ERA this year, more than two full runs lower. That’s wider than the gap between the Dodgers’ bullpen (3.41 ERA) and the Rockies’ bullpen (5.31). Meanwhile, the nine relievers who currently make up the Twins’ bullpen have combined for a 2.84 ERA in 276 innings of work.

This team will enter the postseason as an underdog. By winning their division, the Twins are guaranteed to be either the No. 2 or 3 seed in the American League, yet still, they are likely to finish with the worst record in the AL playoff field. On paper, they are the weaker party, whether they’re facing the Blue Jays, the Astros, the Rangers, or the Mariners. That being the case, the Twins must be better than their regular season record suggests if they hope to advance.

It will help if Minnesota gets Carlos Correa, and possibly Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, back in time for the Wild Card series. The lineup could certainly use the star power. Ultimately, however, the relief corps will be this team’s secret weapon. The Twins have more depth and fewer liabilities in the bullpen than at any other point this season. Accordingly, they’ll be counting on their relievers to give them an edge come October.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.